Search found 1771 matches

by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60273

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

MindBogler wrote: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:10 pm How are you all accounting for the percentage of bonds / stocks that PSLDX contributes as a component in your overall asset allocation?
100% stock.

Buy a big pile of it and watch it move a while, and you'll agree.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9388
Views: 750588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:14 pm Melt up at the end today?
Bigly
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 0% student loan interest rate and suspension of payments on federal student loans
Replies: 32
Views: 2452

Re: 0% student loan interest rate and suspension of payments on federal student loans

Without a time machine, you are just rolling the dice investing for 3 months. Could be great, could be bad. If we had a time machine, we would invest all in Tesla in march, and you'd be just fine investing for 3 months. If we invest in Zoom yesterday, we'd be happy investing for just one day. but wi...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 400k cash, fear of inflation
Replies: 46
Views: 4261

Re: 400k cash, fear of inflation

Wow, such an interesting post! Welcome to the Forum. I have been investing for 30 years, and I can certainly agree with the other guys that my predictions didn't turn out. There are a lot of good ways to learn about investing, and there are some very safe things you can do if you are really attracte...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6968

Re: Easy money baby!

burritoLover wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:09 pm I wonder how many Robinhooders are trading are margin.
That is one of the big draws for Robinhood. They have the easiest access to margin. That's what they want.
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 6968

Re: Easy money baby!

Yeah, I think it's okay to say the market's gone crazy. I know some people really do think it's efficient and all that, but they don't really bother me. As long as you know that you can't pop the bubble, then I think it's okay to call it a bubble. There's no problem in practice unless you think you ...
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]
Replies: 383
Views: 36563

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I don’t blame them at all
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?
Replies: 15
Views: 2646

Re: Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?

Let's just hope we don't need to have the same discussion again just because this is a different thread.
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9388
Views: 750588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Any idea why the PE went from 1030 or so to 249 now after the split? The market cap also shows 90B on Google, perhaps it's just not updated? The PE should be on EPS so the split should not make any difference as the EPS splits as well. You just have to give them all time. No big deal. The split is,...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 174
Views: 13897

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

This topic came across my feed and it is very timely for me. I was thinking about this today. I feel I have moved towards being a market timer. And if you had asked me about this a few years ago I would have told you NO WAY. So what has changed: My wife and I are in our 50s. I am seeing an economy ...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Apple doing a stock split?
Replies: 35
Views: 3171

Re: Why is Apple doing a stock split?

knowledge wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:37 pm My understanding is that the only thing a stock split would do is to enable cheaper options contracts.
In this day and age I think that is good enough. Surprised at the OP though thinking the split is the opposite of buybacks. The opposite of buyback is issuance.
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 57
Views: 6437

Re: Any option traders?

I started a new job earlier this year at a firm whose primary revenue is from options trading. Ironically, compliance reporting requirements and, more importantly, having to get pre-clearance for any personal trading (outside of normal trading like retirement accounts) and holding for at least 10 d...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we talk about the future of oil?
Replies: 72
Views: 4890

Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

With the technology we have now, there's a lot more oil production available than we need, so the price should be range-bound for a while absent any bizarre political decision. If it goes to $50 a barrel they just drill more. If it goes to $25, they have to react to that also. In a sense, it's been ...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Beater Truck and a FAT 401k...
Replies: 104
Views: 10418

Re: A Beater Truck and a FAT 401k...

phxjcc wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:03 pm Yes, I am angry that I practiced delayed gratification.

So, car geeks out there...if you make mid six figures, just buy that fr@@ing car, already!
Jack will not come down and smite you!

The end.
Well, I have a dozen cars, but they’re not the depreciating kind.
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6588
Views: 621707

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Volatility might be a better hedge than long term treasuries with interest rates so low. VXX makes a lot of sense to me if you are planning to run HF's strategy with more equities and fewer bonds. Something like 75/20/5 UPRO/TMF/VXX seems viable to me. When I backtest 75/25 vs. 75/20/5, I get bette...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EE bonds to mitigate college wealth tax?
Replies: 38
Views: 2104

Re: EE bonds to mitigate college wealth tax?

I haven't seen any discussion on this benefit of EE bonds, am I missing something here? Hiding assets to the extent that you'd qualify for financial aid seems pretty extreme for the sort of people who post here, but I realize there could be some situation where it applies (which you didn't mention)...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Beater Truck and a FAT 401k...
Replies: 104
Views: 10418

Re: A Beater Truck and a FAT 401k...

I actually started writing a book once on $500 cars, but I lost interest after about 4 chapters. That was a long time ago, and really, I can still find them for $500. I bought a 1995 Volvo 850 for $450 6 years ago and drove it 6 years, then gave it away to a teenager. It wasn't even ugly. I mean, it...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock split mechanics
Replies: 29
Views: 1669

Re: Stock split mechanics

No matter what you do, nothing interesting will happen. That's the key thing to remember. It's a non-event and it affects nothing. You can't think of a way to throw it off.
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unable to max out tax-advantaged accounts. Should I still contribute to a taxable account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3390

Re: Unable to max out tax-advantaged accounts. Should I still contribute to a taxable account?

Personally I did not reduce tax advantaged account contributions to generate taxable accounts, not ever. There is some benefit to diversity, but there is also a chance to get that diversity later. When your earnings are high, you can max out tax advantaged and accumulate money in excess of that. The...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Tesla - good buy after stock split?]
Replies: 34
Views: 3404

Re: Tesla

I am not playing it, but fortunately I don't have to answer to anybody but me.

At $2000 a share, I wonder if the SP500 may reject it based on some handwaving argument.
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a website online?
Replies: 11
Views: 1262

Re: Buying a website online?

the OP was clear enough in my opinion. I Just think it’s odd he asked here, though. I guess there must be people everywhere with some decent web content.
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist article on bubbles and exuberance
Replies: 65
Views: 6034

Re: Economist article on bubbles and exuberance

Just read this (available online if you sign in for free): economist And what do you think of the article? Do you sense irrational exuberance? I read The Economist (on paper) pretty thoroughly each week, one of my main sources of info on the world. But, the coverage of US financial markets and stoc...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9388
Views: 750588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

How does this current tech rally compare to 1999? I will say that investing in companies with no earnings is big again. Not just tech, but there's plenty of that. People at the watercooler are talking about stocks with P/E's of 500 or maybe even negative. That reminds me of 1999. I gave an example ...
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6588
Views: 621707

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I had this brilliant idea already, and the short answer is you can't hold VXX because they lose too much money rolling futures. That little "nice" moment just comes from rebalancing on January 1, VXX jumps up real high, you rebalance on April 1, hooray! The rest of the time it'll be awful.
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won the game
Replies: 49
Views: 7624

Re: Won the game

What does winning the game means precisely? Objectively: You have paid off house You set aside a large fund for property taxes, insurance, repairs.. Fully paid healthcare or fund for premiums Long term care insurance 25 - 30x annual expenses The amount varies for every individual, but you are cover...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24478

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

knpstr wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:08 pm Interestingly those complaining about accounting for "taxes and inflation" have no complaint about the proposed 200 year retirement. Hahaha
What is wrong with people?
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds?

I will also be pretty heavily invested in real estate as that is what my family does and what I will get passed onto me. But speaking just for my online investments, what would be the purpose of bonds? What I meant by psychology is this: If equities Dropped 30%, one person might say “my portfolio i...
by firebirdparts
Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: Does DCA/Auto Investing Remove the Need for Bonds?

Maybe so. When I was young, I viewed the bond allocation exactly this way. I would not have used the term "dollar cost averaging" as what you are really talking about is investing on payday. If you're not rich, that's the only thing you can do. I try to avoid using jargon as it attracts thread hijac...
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???
Replies: 75
Views: 8123

Re: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???

Robin Hood was founded in 2012 and simply was a brokerage that fits on your phone. Their business is based on making investing more "approachable" for younger investors and it's working. Investors have been committing suicide for a long time, and the secret password to be admitted to that group, as ...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Got Burned: Selling mutual fund and simultaneously purchasing ETF
Replies: 164
Views: 8207

Re: I Got Burned: Selling mutual fund and simultaneously purchasing ETF

Margin is not the same thing as buying with money from an expected settlement. What the OP describes is definitely margin when he explained it. There’s nothing to stop him from canceling the mutual fund trade after spending the money nor spending more than it’s actually worth at the time of the actu...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Got Burned: Selling mutual fund and simultaneously purchasing ETF
Replies: 164
Views: 8207

Re: I Got Burned: Selling mutual fund and simultaneously purchasing ETF

...Mutual funds trade at night. Prices are dictated by the asset prices at 4pm. ... This sounds like you're saying that if you trade at night that you get the previous 4pm price. That’s crazy. Just assume I meant how it actually is. The original question is indecipherable. It’s an important concept...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Got Burned: Selling mutual fund and simultaneously purchasing ETF
Replies: 164
Views: 8207

Re: I Got Burned: Selling mutual fund and simultaneously purchasing ETF

I'm not following this 3pm stuff. Mutual funds trade at night. Prices are dictated by the asset prices at 4pm. If you sold one, in no way would you have money to buy the ETF until the next morning. There is plenty of concern about what happens overnight, but that's not what was expressed. If you hav...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 256
Views: 15508

Re: Gold continues to soar!

columbia wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:26 am
firebirdparts wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:14 am This thread should have been titled "Gold continues to act about like you'd expect"
Is it? It dropped that much because _______?
Exactly.
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 256
Views: 15508

Re: Gold continues to soar!

This thread should have been titled "Gold continues to act about like you'd expect"
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26122

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Very true. There is something about gold that attracts these mythologies as if this is oh-so-important. Kingdoms rise and fall over it; nations slaughtered; banks miraculously rescued. This is because other people have always wanted it. On that you can rely. Semantic arguments about gold and bitcoin...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silver: The Forgotten Precious Metal?
Replies: 88
Views: 4928

Re: Silver: The Forgotten Precious Metal?

I've got a few old moldy quarters. I am hoping the price gets re-frenzied so I can sell them all.
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 256
Views: 15508

Re: Gold continues to soar!

If you turn your phone over it looks like it's still going up.
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6588
Views: 621707

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Yeh, the issue was I was re-balancing monthly. Quarterly makes a big difference. I actually came across this strategy elsewhere when I first started using it last year, and there was less emphasis on a specific re-balancing frequency. The emphasis was on vigilantly maintaining the ratio to avoid ge...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You cant time the market...but, can you use the data to support your timing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2425

Re: You cant time the market...but, can you use the data to support your timing?

You messed up the last bullet on your list. If the fed devalues the dollar by pumping then you'll have to stay invested in stocks. You might want to borrow money too.
by firebirdparts
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends ?
Replies: 23
Views: 2718

Re: Dividends ?

dave1054 wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:14 pm So sorry for stupid question.

If stock issues dividend if for example $1, the stock goes down the equivalent amount on date it is issued excluding other factors in market that day.
So how do you make money in dividend stocks?
In 90 days they have to do it again.
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12837

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Oh, okay. However doing a quick search I do find: "Advanced gold traders recognize that the yellow metal is priced in US Dollars and will account for its trend in their gold analysis." I have to admit here that the website itself looks pretty honest to me. When they say "priced in dollars" they mea...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9388
Views: 750588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Another pretty good day. The Dow up 373 points, the S&P 500 up 21, and the NAZZ up 57. Not sure what is driving all of this, must be optimism out there about Covid-19 and the economy. I will be interested to see the 3rd Qtr economic numbers when they come out in October. DOW just crushed the S&P to...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the average investor really the average dollar invested?
Replies: 17
Views: 1157

Re: Is the average investor really the average dollar invested?

It's a lot easier to define a person holding 100% S&P500 or TSM index funds. That wouldn't be an average investor, but it would be the investor of interest. I think a lot of bad headline blather is written about "average" investors. I see lots of articles about who panicked and sometimes you'll see ...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do the tech giants exceed expectations so consistently?
Replies: 25
Views: 2084

Re: How do the tech giants exceed expectations so consistently?

Why can't the market just price in a "tech giant" factor? This seems more like a known unknown than an unknown unknown. What makes you say they don't? This is just an example, but NET (cloudflare) has earnings coming out tonight, negative 72 cents a share. The stock price almost tripled this year t...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 201
Views: 21685

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

MNSooner wrote: Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:47 am Does it seem internally inconsistent to use “hoarding cash” and “hyperinflation” in the same sentence?
I suppose so. The true believers should be hoarding mortgaged assets.
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 201
Views: 21685

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

I am not hoarding cash. I admit being somewhat "conservatively" invested and being glad that I am. The gladness is the market timing part of it. When I hit age 50 I started trying to build up a bond portfolio, and I happened to evolve to a stopping point of like 50/50. You get to rebalance a lot if ...
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 03, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no love for leveraging Junk Bonds?
Replies: 43
Views: 2322

Re: Why no love for leveraging Junk Bonds?

A fellow could make a small fortune doing that.
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Market Theory vs Tesla Stock Price
Replies: 68
Views: 3672

Re: Efficient Market Theory vs Tesla Stock Price

Anon9001 wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:55 am I am confused this is like asking a vegan how healthy meat is. You will not get any objective answers here as passive investing requires EMH to be correct.
This is totally wrong. You have no idea what you're talking about.