Search found 685 matches

by YRT70
Mon May 27, 2019 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?
Replies: 34
Views: 4296

4% withdrawal failed in 1960s. Is that correct?

I heard some people say that the 4% withdrawal historically always worked. Upon testing it I found it failed several years in the 60s. 30 years, 50% stocks/50% bonds, 40.000 withdrawal inflation adjusted. http://www.cfiresim.com/ Does anyone know why that is? Is my conclusion correct that 4% didn't ...
by YRT70
Sat May 25, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flexible Retirement Planner
Replies: 44
Views: 8349

Re: The Flexible Retirement Planner

It seems that the Monte Carlo analysis used in the software does not incorporate mean reversion; few MC tools do. This is a significant drawback because it is now understood that MC analysis overstates the 'tails' of return distributions (i.e. it predicts more very good sequences and very poor sequ...
by YRT70
Wed May 22, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1213

Re: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?

In most tax systems the fact that stocks pay capital gains & dividends at different tax rates than interest is taxed has an impact on asset allocation - bonds v. stocks. The point about the Dutch tax is that it is asset agnostic. It does not care what you invest in. Unless you take credit risk on y...
by YRT70
Wed May 22, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1213

Re: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?

You are comparing the return of stocks vs bonds, but in my view they serve different purposes. I get that. For me too, I get bonds for the stability. But I find it hard to get away from the fact this tool is based on the US situation. In the US a 100% bond portfolio will likely provide some earning...
by YRT70
Wed May 22, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1213

Re: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?

There's one caveat to that. If you have a "target wealth level" you want to hit at some given age, it might make you take more risk. I'm curious, does your statement refer to the scenario where I want to be living of my investments? To answer the OP, I as a dutch investor, completely ignore it. The...
by YRT70
Tue May 21, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1213

Re: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?

As you say, such a tax is the same whether your investments are low or high yielding, so are meant to encourage you to take risk and earn higher yields, somewhat like negative interest rates do. That's what I thought too. I don't know if Netherlands also taxes interest. No. Since as I understand it...
by YRT70
Tue May 21, 2019 7:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1213

Re: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?

This is actually a question about the Netherlands but I'm posting it here because I find this side of the forum more active. I hope that's ok. Actually, given that your post is about the system in the Netherlands, you'll probably get better and more applicable responses in the Non-US Investing foru...
by YRT70
Tue May 21, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1213

Does this specific tax system make bonds slightly less appealing?

This is actually a question about the Netherlands but I'm posting it here because I find this side of the forum more active. I hope that's ok. So here's a simple example: if you have 1 million the tax is roughly 1.2%, so 12.000 no matter how much money you actually make with your investments. Even i...
by YRT70
Thu May 16, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?
Replies: 36
Views: 2617

Re: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?

I'm relatively new to this investing world so bear with me. If someone would have followed the CAPE based dynamic asset allocation strategy as proposed by Kitces & Pfau, they would have missed out on a lot of the growth in the last 5 years right? So anyone who retired in 2014 and thought "oh CAPE is...
by YRT70
Wed May 15, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 4694

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

HomerJ wrote: Fri May 10, 2019 8:44 pm I can't see it since it is behind a paywall.
I think this article discusses the results; https://www.kitces.com/blog/valuation-b ... lidepaths/
by YRT70
Wed May 15, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?
Replies: 36
Views: 2617

Re: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?

Thanks for the interesting discussion so far. I've been doing more reading on the topic and I was surprised that Michael Kitces found that dynamic asset allocation based on CAPE managed to outperform other asset allocations. This seems to support the use of CAPE as a prediction. What do you guys thi...
by YRT70
Wed May 15, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio based on [fund expenses] (Europe)
Replies: 6
Views: 697

Re: Portfolio based on [fund expenses] (Europe)

In what country are you?

If you're living in Netherlands there are funds from Northern Trust that have a tax advantage over Vanguard and iShares.
by YRT70
Wed May 15, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor
Replies: 21
Views: 1717

Re: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor

The problem with all these calculators is that their outputs are determined by their inputs. What happened in 2008-09 reminded us that equity volatility is not over. Bear markets are not always just painful (minus 35% 2000-03) sometimes they are absolutely brutal (50% in less than a year). Of cours...
by YRT70
Tue May 14, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 179
Views: 20521

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

Real world numbers. 40 years at 3.75% 70/30 94.5% 30/70 64.8% 40 years @3.5% 70/30 99.1% 30/70 87.1% 50 years at 3% 70/30 100% 30/70 89.6% I consider those a pretty big gap:). Why the difference between that and what vanguard put out. My guess is handling of inflation and mean reversion. And yes yo...
by YRT70
Tue May 14, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

So I was reading another thread and came across these objections against MC testing. They seem legit to me but I'm new to all this stuff. Here is the key phrase and the reason some people don't like Monte Carlo simulations: "For each year of each simulation, we randomly select one year of stock, bon...
by YRT70
Tue May 14, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?
Replies: 36
Views: 2617

Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?

I was reading a text by ERN. I'm relatively new to investing. I'm about to invest a decent amount of money in stocks. I'm new to using CAPE for predicting returns so this left me puzzled. That's right, today's CAPE ratio is pretty good at predicting future equity returns. Well, not perfectly but the...
by YRT70
Tue May 14, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I'm new to using Monte Carlo tool like the Vanguard one. Is there a percentage that's generally considered acceptable? For example 90%? 95%? 100% sounds extremely conservative. ... realized I could never have a portfolio higher than 60/40. YMMV. I might be similar. ...
by YRT70
Tue May 14, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor
Replies: 21
Views: 1717

Re: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor

From that post you are aiming for 100% stocks? No. Firecalc is suggesting that about 85% stocks was the most optimal for most of my scenarios. If I use the same numbers on Vanguard's MC tool I get about ~60-70% stocks as optimal. I'm new to using all these tools so not sure what to make of them. I ...
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

Thanks ^. This was quite helpful too: Essentially, bonds will have more opportunity to shine with Monte Carlo. In addition, with many more simulations we can expect some scenarios where a particular spending strategy will not work even when it always worked in the same historical data that drives th...
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

Garfieldthecat wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 12:56 pm Firecalc uses historical data , Vanguard is Monte Carlo.
I tried reading about it. So Monte Carlo uses a model right?

So then my question would be why does Vanguard's model predict better outcomes of bonds? Most sources I've read predict expect returns on bonds.
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

Can someone explain me the difference I'm getting here? scenario: 900k, 40years, 36k spending Firecalc https://firecalc.com/ 50% 75% success 60% 81% 70% 85% 80% 85% 90% 87% 100% 88% optimal stock allocation: 100% Vanguard tool https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/pubeducation/calculators/Re...
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 4292

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

Curious what you get with this Vanguard tool. https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VG ... ggCalc.jsf

In my calculations it's showing a benefit of higher bond allocations where other tools didn't.
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

I'd say that the 2-3% differences of success due to different AA's are just noise, and essentially all the same. The big difference was having an extra $100,000 saved. Also, the longer your retirement, the more of a problem inflation can be, and thus a higher percentage of stocks is usually recomme...
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

What you should notice first in that data is that low stock allocations are not a good idea. Second you should notice that success is driven by withdrawal rate more than by asset allocation. Third, I imagine most people would think long and hard about adopting a plan that proposed one chance in fou...
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 4292

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

Interesting question. I posted something similar yesterday. Longinvest just linked to it.

I found this an interesting article by Wade Pfau https://retirementresearcher.com/willia ... s-safemax/
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

I found a document by Vanguard. https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/s325.pdf Going by the information in figure 2 they seem to support my conclusion. 80/20 comes out best, supporting highest withdrawal rates over the longest periods. Or am I missing something? Personally, I much prefer our wiki's Variable ...
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?
Replies: 19
Views: 2149

Re: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?

AlohaJoe wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 3:03 am Because reasonable people can disagree about the risks and rewards of using different kinds of bonds.
That does make sense. But maybe Vanguard has a specific reason for their choice? I mean, they usually have reasons for what they're doing.

I wonder what their reasoning is.
by YRT70
Mon May 13, 2019 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?
Replies: 19
Views: 2149

Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?

Larry Swedroe basically says government bonds are the best choice as stable part of a portfolio. Kitces says the same. https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-no-need-corp-bonds?nopaging=1 But in most documents I've seen from Vanguard they seem to use aggregated bonds. For example...
by YRT70
Sun May 12, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be offensive: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

What you are missing is that one’s stock-to-bond Asset Allocation is the primary risk vs. reward “control knob”. So to say that a higher percentage of stocks outperforms a lower percentage of stocks (at least from 85% stocks down to 15% stocks - things get a little wonky at the limits as the AA app...
by YRT70
Sun May 12, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be offensive: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

"Age in bonds" may be common advice but it isn't very good advice. Even for someone with "average" risk tolerance, asset allocation is probably not best defined as a linear function of age. If you were inclined to use such an age-based rule, something like "age minus 20" or "age minus 30" in bonds ...
by YRT70
Sun May 12, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor
Replies: 21
Views: 1717

Re: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor

Valuethinker wrote: Sun May 12, 2019 11:25 am Firecalc.

That's for an American investor?
Does that matter a lot? I find that side of the forum way more active, which is why I posted it there.
Don't give your age or any other detail?
Close to 50, mentioned there. Planning to live another 40 years ;) Thanks for the feedback.
by YRT70
Sun May 12, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor
Replies: 21
Views: 1717

Re: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor

Almost certainly correct. If UK gilt yields were significantly higher and non UK gilt yields the same I would consider using a gilt index fund. As it is the gilt index has a duration 4 to 5 years longer than the average government bond index and yields are really low right now ( c 1.5 per cent). So...
by YRT70
Sun May 12, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4972

Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

I'm using firecalc.com to backtest these scenarios (that resemble my situation). Seems like most of the times 85/15 stocks/bonds comes out best. This seems to be far from the common advice of bonds in age (close to 50/50 in my case). What do you think of these data? Is it wise for me to go 85/15? Sc...
by YRT70
Sun May 12, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor
Replies: 21
Views: 1717

Re: Torn between Bonds: VUCP.L and Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund - Income UK Investor

Valuethinker wrote: Sun May 12, 2019 6:17 am
YRT70 wrote: Sun May 12, 2019 3:38 am Here's what Vanguard recommends: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGLBD.pdf
Thank you!

Useful.
My pleasure. What do you think of their advice? (global bonds hedged to local currency)
by YRT70
Sat May 11, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1179

Re: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?

Wow quite the difference I'm getting between cfiresim and firecalc. Testing with 40 years 900k/36k withdrawal and 1000k/40k withdrawal, cfiresim is basically telling me the more offensive the more successful, up to 90% stocks. With firecalc 75/25 comes out with the highest success rate. Higher stock...
by YRT70
Sat May 11, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1179

Re: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?

You can use FireCalc: www.firecalc.com On it's last tab, "investigate", you can check on the allocation option and it will give you a graph of the success rate for your data for all AA options 0/100 to 100/0. Thank you, I will start using that now. Would you say I'd better disregard the outcomes I ...
by YRT70
Sat May 11, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1179

Re: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?

I was trying to test some asset allocations at www.cfiresim.com but for some reason I only get graphs, and no statistics in numbers. Is there something wrong with the website or am I perhaps doing something wrong? I've tried different browsers with and without adblock. Cfiresim has been abandoned f...
by YRT70
Fri May 10, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1179

Re: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?

billthecat wrote: Fri May 10, 2019 2:44 pm Make sure the start date is the current year (2019) or the statistics won't work. So I'm told.
That's it. Start year was at 2018. Thank you!
by YRT70
Fri May 10, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1179

Cfiresim.com not fully working at the moment?

I was trying to test some asset allocations at www.cfiresim.com but for some reason I only get graphs, and no statistics in numbers. Is there something wrong with the website or am I perhaps doing something wrong?

I've tried different browsers with and without adblock.
by YRT70
Fri May 10, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 43
Views: 7037

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

What is a master/sub-fund construction? I think they choose this construction to offer both the efficiency of a large fund as well as the tax advantage to Dutch investors. From what I've read they reinvest dividend (fund documentation & Morningstar). The Fund may invest up to 15% of net assets in a...
by YRT70
Thu May 09, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 43
Views: 7037

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

As far as I can see from Morningstar the domicile is Ireland and not the Netherlands at least not for the World fund. Also it doesn't include small caps. So I don't think it is exactly an equivalent of VTI (total market) + VXUS (total market ex US) or VT (total world). So it would be necessary to a...
by YRT70
Wed May 08, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 43
Views: 7037

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

As far as I know you get it with Meesman and the TER is 0.5%. Not too bad, but also not too good. Also the dividend leakage is not exactly 0, but according to Meesman around 2-5%. Is there also another way to get to those funds apart via Meesman? ABN, ING, Rabo, Binck fund coach, maybe some other o...
by YRT70
Wed May 08, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?
Replies: 43
Views: 7037

Re: European, dutch investor here: Is investing in VTI and VXUS still a good choice?

finrod_2002 wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 7:25 am That said I plan to probably switch VTI + VXUS with the ACTIAM (Verantwoord Index Aandelenfonds Wereld) at some point in the long term (or with another Dutch domiciled fund if a better one comes up).
Have you looked at Northern Trust funds? Dutch domiciled, no dividend "leakage" and low TER.
by YRT70
Wed May 08, 2019 7:06 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 26 got lucky now have 1.25M what ETF Australia
Replies: 17
Views: 3112

Re: 26 got lucky now have 1.25M what ETF Australia

My title says it all I need a bit of assistance from yall, I live in Sydney and have a stable income of approx 90K p/a I got a bit lucky in a deal i did... anyway i have 1.25M in cash sitting in my bank account, and i want to invest it for the long term I'm not too risk-averse but i don't want to l...
by YRT70
Wed May 08, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio recommendations [Belgium]
Replies: 18
Views: 2989

Re: Portfolio recommendations [Belgium]

Thanks. As far as I can tell they reference 2016 and 2018 information. I think things may be different now.
by YRT70
Tue May 07, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Portfolio recommendations [Belgium]
Replies: 18
Views: 2989

Re: Portfolio recommendations [Belgium]

Asset Allocation : 70/30 stocks/stable - The stocks part is divided along the 3 'standard' (as per the wiki) BH ETFs: 70% World: IWDA (IE00B4L5Y983) - TER 0.20% 20% Small Caps: IUSN (IE00BF4RFH31) - TER 0.35% 10% Emerging markets: EMIM (IE00BKM4GZ66) - TER 0.18% Hi, is there a wiki that recommends ...
by YRT70
Mon May 06, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to decide on asset allocation? Overwhelmed by information online
Replies: 40
Views: 6944

Re: How to decide on asset allocation? Overwhelmed by information online

You said you have around 1 million (lower in the thread). You say no income, so you're not working, but you also said you would consider going back to work. You're thinking somewhere between 3-4% withdrawals. 3% certainly won't fail (read Michael Kitces on SWR). 4% is pretty safe, too. You can alwa...