Search found 685 matches

by YRT70
Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8734

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

https://imgur.com/stz6Zmj.png 1) Anyone who invested in gold at any time shown in the chart, who is still holding it now, has made a lot of money. Except the people who bought it at the peak around ~2011. Well they could have listened to Warren Buffet who said he would rather buy XOM in 2012 becaus...
by YRT70
Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

When Larry Swedroe stated that "3% is the new 4%," I don't recall that he put any qualifiers on it. One of his arguments is that some people will need their retirement to last longer than 30 years, which brings down the SWR. The '4% rule of thumb' as put forth by Bengen was explicitly for 30 years....
by YRT70
Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8734

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

https://imgur.com/stz6Zmj.png 1) Anyone who invested in gold at any time shown in the chart, who is still holding it now, has made a lot of money. Except the people who bought it at the peak around ~2011. Well they could have listened to Warren Buffet who said he would rather buy XOM in 2012 becaus...
by YRT70
Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

When Larry Swedroe stated that "3% is the new 4%," I don't recall that he put any qualifiers on it. One of his arguments is that some people will need their retirement to last longer than 30 years, which brings down the SWR. The '4% rule of thumb' as put forth by Bengen was explicitly for 30 years....
by YRT70
Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:10 pm When Larry Swedroe stated that "3% is the new 4%," I don't recall that he put any qualifiers on it.
One of his arguments is that some people will need their retirement to last longer than 30 years, which brings down the SWR.

And he actually said 3.5% is probably more accurate than 3%.
by YRT70
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

I understand everything you're saying now but I don't understand why you said the 2020 and 2021 have a better than even probability. Who knows, they might start with a year of -50% followed by several poor years (to name a doom scenario). Sure, a doomsday scenario is possible . In fact, the odds of...
by YRT70
Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since inception
Replies: 111
Views: 6822

Re: DFA Small-Cap Value has now underperformed since inception

According to Portfolio visualizer DFSVX has outperformed VTSMX since inception. (9.40 vs 9.37). . https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&...
by YRT70
Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Of course it must be true that the SWR over the next 30 years will probably be over 4%. It usually has been, and there’s a better-than-even probability it will be for 2020 or 2021 retirees as well. Why is that? The expected withdrawal rate is essentially a function of the expected average real retu...
by YRT70
Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8734

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

nisiprius wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:25 pm
Image

1) Anyone who invested in gold at any time shown in the chart, who is still holding it now, has made a lot of money.
Except the people who bought it at the peak around ~2011.
by YRT70
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

vineviz wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:13 pm Of course it must be true that the SWR over the next 30 years will probably be over 4%. It usually has been, and there’s a better-than-even probability it will be for 2020 or 2021 retirees as well.
Why is that?
by YRT70
Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 72
Views: 7868

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

Based on my experience with Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund, the answer is no. DMW Did you mean to say “yes”? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=VMNVX&benchmark=VT I meant to say no. I am comparing the performance of Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMVF...
by YRT70
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

I like how critical you are of Monte Carlo simulations. Sometimes I wish you were as critical of historic back testing (even more so when it's US only data) :happy In my view, there is a huge line of demarcation between actual historic data and 'synthetic' data. We know that the returns of history ...
by YRT70
Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

I did not know that ...thank you - I am apparently not part of the club. It wasn't that long ago that you were barely a member of the club if you didn't invest in commodities and overweight SCV. How quickly we forget. But seriously, there just wasn't all this ex-U.S. bashing until recently - nobody...
by YRT70
Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1884

Re: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"

Taylor, this article is about value betting, some sort of strategy in sports betting. It's not about investing in value stocks. Here's an article that is about investing in value stocks, which includes nearly 200 years of back tested data. https://www.twocenturies.com/blog/2020/5/11/value-investing-...
by YRT70
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate
Replies: 27
Views: 2384

Re: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate

Does anyone believe that since the Dow and SP500 are roughly flat to down year over year and 2 years the SWR or SAWR could be more than the previous rough consensus 3-3.5% SWR? Just focus on the long-term and figure out your situation based on your planned budget, asset allocation, years in retirem...
by YRT70
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

vineviz wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:58 am ... the odds of seeing a 30-year SWR below 4% are much greater (about 50%).
How did you establish that?
by YRT70
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

willthrill81 wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:23 pm Wade Pfau, who has recently been revealed to have financial connections to the insurance industry, has been.

Interesting. Do you have a link?
Larry Swedroe said last year that '3% is the new 4%'.
True but in the interview by that name he specified it as 3.5%.
by YRT70
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 27099

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

How many here are very confident that the 4% rule works for a 30 year period in the current environment? How many here would be confident enough to pursue this withdrawal themselves and put it as part of their definitive plans? I do know there are those that aren't, i'm looking for the other side o...
by YRT70
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Returns Beats Dividend Focus
Replies: 17
Views: 1611

Re: Total Returns Beats Dividend Focus

I'm pretty sure that Vanguard wrote a white paper or something a few years ago showing why aiming for total returns is better than focusing on dividends. Anybody know where I can find it? Anything similar in the Bogleheads wiki? Brad This 12 minute video by Ben Felix explains it very well and conta...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3351

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

Yes US bonds have higher yields but it's not generally recommended to invest in bonds denominated in a foreign currency because of currency risk. Correct. Lauretta, you may be interested in reading the thread a started a while back asking a very similar question as yours. It starts here: https://ww...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?
Replies: 18
Views: 1204

Re: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts

We’ve had other posters make the argument that somehow compounding is superior for a larger account. But that just isn’t true. One $100,000 account invested in a S&P 500 fund is going to have the same balance after 10 years as the sum of 2 $50,000 accounts invested in the same fund for 10 years (as...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?
Replies: 18
Views: 1204

Re: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?

I guess one way in which way his argument could make sense is with dividend reinvesting. It might be more efficient to have all your holdings in one account and minimise cash drag. The argument mentioned earlier about rebalancing also makes some sense. It's easier. So that's more of a practical argu...
by YRT70
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?
Replies: 18
Views: 1204

Re: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?

How many different holdings are you talking about? Mutual funds or individual stocks? In general I don't think there would be any difference in single vs multiple accounts. Simplicity is a factor which would lead me to favor a single account. Why did "someone" think multiple accounts would be super...
by YRT70
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1265

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

alex_686 wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:47 pm VBR is small cap, not value - right?

Note, “Value” is a relative term to other stocks within the same universe. i.e. A US large cap value fund might well have a higher P/E than a European fund because US large caps are more growthy.
VBR is small cap value. I'm aware of your second point.
by YRT70
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?
Replies: 18
Views: 1204

Is there any financial downside to spreading your portfolio over multiple accounts?

Let's assume the accounts are free and have no transactions costs. Would one option be superior? A: Whole equity portfolio in one account B: Same equity portfolio spread over 4 accounts of equal size Personally I thought that there would be no difference in long term results but I talked to someone ...
by YRT70
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1265

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

etf.com Thanks VBR 31.5 That does not seem right. https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vbr/portfolio Methodology differences that can make a big difference to the final number. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=199804 https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/P/E Thanks. I haven't read those ...
by YRT70
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market
Replies: 66
Views: 3351

Re: lump sum investing vs dollar cost averaging in the present market

I have sold a house and have a sum to invest (which is more than 15% of my liquid worth). I know that statistically you're better off with a lump sum investment, however the market is a lot more volatile these days than usual, so I am considering DCA (though I know it sounds a bit like market timin...
by YRT70
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1265

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

SemiRetire wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:28 pm
dcabler wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:42 pmetf.com
Thanks

VBR 31.5
That does not seem right.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/vbr/portfolio
by YRT70
Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 146
Views: 17233

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

European money is in US Treasuries - they are chasing yield too! Interesting. Do you have a reference for that? No, but if you were an astute investor where would you be? This isn’t Zimbabwe you know. I'm in the Netherlands and active on several forums. From what I can tell the majority of posters ...
by YRT70
Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 146
Views: 17233

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

European money is in US Treasuries - they are chasing yield too! Interesting. Do you have a reference for that? No, but if you were an astute investor where would you be? This isn’t Zimbabwe you know. I'm in the Netherlands and active on several forums. From what I can tell the majority of posters ...
by YRT70
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6343

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

Ben Felix will be releasing his new model portfolios soon which should be interesting regarding the question how much to tilt.
by YRT70
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 146
Views: 17233

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

The Europeans said the same thing, then rates went negative! :shock: I don't really care where European working stiff money went, because there probably isn't that much of it to move the needle. But I do wonder where European institutional money went, and when I'm going to see some trader wearing a...
by YRT70
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more
Replies: 146
Views: 17233

Re: Jeremy Siegel on MiB Podcast: 60/40 is risky and more

It’s baffling that a human being would lend money for 30 years at that rate 😱, but thankfully individual choice exists. The Europeans said the same thing, then rates went negative! :shock: I don't really care where European working stiff money went, because there probably isn't that much of it to m...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads walked the talk; be proud.
Replies: 39
Views: 5886

Re: Bogleheads walked the talk; be proud.

According to the article 91.7% of Vanguard's clients didn't take action between Feb. 19 and March 20. I wonder how many took action after that and what the percentage was among Bogleheads. I bailed but I hadn’t been a boglehead long enough to count as one I also sold some of my holdings during the ...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads walked the talk; be proud.
Replies: 39
Views: 5886

Re: Bogleheads walked the talk; be proud.

According to the article 91.7% of Vanguard's clients didn't take action between Feb. 19 and March 20.

I wonder how many took action after that and what the percentage was among Bogleheads.
by YRT70
Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs. profit margins: Valid point about market disconnect?
Replies: 47
Views: 2494

Re: S&P 500 vs. profit margins: Valid point about market disconnect?

In a recent MarketWatch article (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-markets-in-la-la-land-and-one-warren-buffett-buff-warns-of-an-imminent-reckoning-for-oblivious-investors-2020-06-18) - I know that, per Bogleheads philosophy, I'm not supposed to read media news & opinions, but I'm too curious, ...
by YRT70
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2142

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

I think it is telling that Fama and French wrote their paper describing the value and small premiums in 1992 and since 1993 to the present the premiums have not shown up. Perhaps this is a case of the market adjusting for something once it is widely known and taking away the supposed advantage. You...
by YRT70
Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 259
Views: 27813

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

I'm from Europe so situation is a bit different here. In a nutshell: Intermediate government bonds expected return -0.1% Deposits guaranteed return about 1% Would anyone still choose bonds in that situation? I guess their reasoning might be that bonds will do better in a bear market. I opted for the...
by YRT70
Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2142

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed. Do people still believe in it? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Ben Felix gives a very concise answer to your question: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kYO7xrHhqsY (12 minute video) Th...
by YRT70
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2142

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed. Do people still believe in it? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Ben Felix gives a very concise answer to your question: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kYO7xrHhqsY (12 minute video)
by YRT70
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?
Replies: 23
Views: 1470

Re: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?

After reading multiple threads and articles this is still not clear to me: Is the bond tent strategy effective at reducing sequence of returns risk? No, it isn't effective. Check out the link to EarlyRetirementNow from YRT70. And that's among the most positive takes on it. The safe withdrawal rate ...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 14, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?
Replies: 23
Views: 1470

Re: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?

After reading multiple threads and articles this is still not clear to me: Is the bond tent strategy effective at reducing sequence of returns risk? I'm asking this as a general question but it also applies directly to my personal situation. I retired in 2019 with about 50/50 asset allocation. I wa...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?
Replies: 23
Views: 1470

Re: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?

Here's something to consider: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/. It could be argued that if anything you have too much in bonds and that over time you should start gliding to higher equities to combat inflation. Thank yo...
by YRT70
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?
Replies: 23
Views: 1470

Is the bond tent effective at reducing SoRR?

After reading multiple threads and articles this is still not clear to me: Is the bond tent strategy effective at reducing sequence of returns risk? I'm asking this as a general question but it also applies directly to my personal situation. I retired in 2019 with about 50/50 asset allocation. I wan...
by YRT70
Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Any Bogleheads Consider Themselves Bears?
Replies: 51
Views: 2617

Re: Do Any Bogleheads Consider Themselves Bears?

OP, I am 60/40. I make money in the bull market and I make money in the bear market. And, if the market oscillates sideways, I make money too. In summary, I do not care. With diversification, there is always something to do well and something to do not as well or badly, I am always "Buy Low and Sel...
by YRT70
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about the 4% rule
Replies: 91
Views: 4633

Re: Confusion about the 4% rule

well, the part that is confusing is this - if I had used the 4% rule say on Feb 15 to retire, then I would've used the current portfolio value at the time. According to a lot of material I have read the 4% rule pretty much works for a 30 year time frame. It worked pretty well in the past. Whether i...
by YRT70
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about the 4% rule
Replies: 91
Views: 4633

Re: Confusion about the 4% rule

During the last few months my portfolio value has been all over the place... at the peak on Feb 19 it was at $702K and my FIRE number is about $1M. But say hypothetically I wanted to retire... in mid Feb I would've used $702k, 4% would be $28K/yr. At the low point in the crash it was about $480K so...
by YRT70
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229688

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I wonder if most Bogleheads who tilt do so for entertainment, sort of like gambling, rather than for any need for the potential gain of an extra one or two percent over the market. And if they lose one or two percent compared to the market, then they will still be fine. I'm not doing it for gamblin...
by YRT70
Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3125
Views: 229688

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I've read some claims around here that the small and value premium have shown up better in international than in U.S. stocks. I don't remember where I read it though. :confused I continue to watch AVDV wondering if I should add a value tilt to my international. It seems like it's good with over 100...