Search found 741 matches

by YRT70
Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silliest Investment Mistakes?
Replies: 150
Views: 10907

Re: Silliest Investment Mistakes?

I once put a dot wrong when buying an option :annoyed

Damage was not too bad though.

Oh and I sold equities after the dot com crash. Damage was bad.
by YRT70
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great video by Ben Felix on Tech Revolutions
Replies: 24
Views: 2424

Re: Great video by Ben Felix on Tech Revolutions

How does a guy like him earn money if he suggests everyone buy index funds like a bogelhead? I believe that, while he likes index funds, he is a bigger believer in factor investing. He thinks you'll get better returns by allocating some of your money into small-cap and value. I imagine that he sell...
by YRT70
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: DLS or AVDV for initial Intl SCV allocation

So question is, I'd like to add a SCV tilt on the international side. I think the options for intl SCV will improve as time goes on, but my current two picks are DLS vs AVDV. Any thoughts on either? DLS holds more real estate. DLS ER is 58bp vs 36bp for AVDV. Both seem to have comparable factor loa...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I agree on the behavioural risks. For longer retirements the improvement in SWR was sometimes more than marginal. https://i0.wp.com/earlyretirementnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/swr-part19-table021.png Source: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates...
by YRT70
Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I think I understand you fine. I just think it's highly unlikely that these improvements are due to noise or random chance. The improvements are too large for it and the intuitive explanation of why it works also makes sense to me. If you got data showing that this is just noise I'd like to take a ...
by YRT70
Sat Nov 28, 2020 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I think I understand you fine. I just think it's highly unlikely that these improvements are due to noise or random chance. The improvements are too large for it and the intuitive explanation of why it works also makes sense to me. If you got data showing that this is just noise I'd like to take a ...
by YRT70
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

That’s exactly the kind of result you get from over-fitting: erratic and inconsistent results with “improvement” concentrated in most severe extremes. That's exactly the goal: protection in the most extreme scenarios. The discussion is very similar to lump sum vs. DCA. Lump sum investing will beat ...
by YRT70
Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

That’s exactly the kind of result you get from over-fitting: erratic and inconsistent results with “improvement” concentrated in most severe extremes. That's exactly the goal: protection in the most extreme scenarios. The discussion is very similar to lump sum vs. DCA. Lump sum investing will beat ...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I agree that for more typical retirement periods (e.g. 30 years), the rising equity glidepath doesn't seem to be beneficial. But Karsten's analysis seemed to indicate pretty robustly that a rising equity glidepath worked well at improving the SWR for 60 year retirements when the starting stock allo...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

The reverse can easily be our case, where: a) we have great markets right after retiring but we didn't benefit much because we were doing 50/50 Sure. There's a cost to using a glide path too. And that's what you're describing. But if markets are good early on you've made it through the 'retirement ...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

That brings up another point I've made already: I'm not sure that the rising equity glidepath's seeming improvement would have been statistically significant. If it isn't, then the results may be due to random chance. Yes you've said that 3 times now :) And I'll keep saying this: while the differen...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

That brings up another point I've made already: I'm not sure that the rising equity glidepath's seeming improvement would have been statistically significant. If it isn't, then the results may be due to random chance. Yes you've said that 3 times now :) And I'll keep saying this: while the differen...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

That brings up another point I've made already: I'm not sure that the rising equity glidepath's seeming improvement would have been statistically significant. If it isn't, then the results may be due to random chance. Yes you've said that 3 times now :) And I'll keep saying this: while the differen...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

That brings up another point I've made already: I'm not sure that the rising equity glidepath's seeming improvement would have been statistically significant. If it isn't, then the results may be due to random chance. Yes you've said that 3 times now :) And I'll keep saying this: while the differen...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

VTV is good, it does just fine in all of the above metrics. But in general, large cap value funds that are purely cap-weighted (like VTV) don't have a whole lot of exposure to value. They'll behave roughly similar to total stock market funds. What do you think of IUSV? Ben Felix' analysis makes it ...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 26, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

Take a look at Kitces' original post on the topic, with the chart below. The difference in the historic likelihood of success for a rising equity glidepath from 30% stock to 70% stock was 95.1% but 94.6% for a static 40/60. There's no way that the .5% advantage would be statistically significant. h...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

Take a look at Kitces' original post on the topic, with the chart below. The difference in the historic likelihood of success for a rising equity glidepath from 30% stock to 70% stock was 95.1% but 94.6% for a static 40/60. There's no way that the .5% advantage would be statistically significant. h...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

A 3.6% SWR-style withdrawal scheme having survived for 50 years, whether with a fixed AA or with the cash bucket strategy, in the worst historic scenarios is pretty impressive IMHO. Agreed. Could this rising equity glide path strategy be even better? 3.56% for 60 years retirement. https://i0.wp.com...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

VTV is good, it does just fine in all of the above metrics. But in general, large cap value funds that are purely cap-weighted (like VTV) don't have a whole lot of exposure to value. They'll behave roughly similar to total stock market funds. What do you think of IUSV? Ben Felix' analysis makes it ...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

A 3.6% SWR-style withdrawal scheme having survived for 50 years, whether with a fixed AA or with the cash bucket strategy, in the worst historic scenarios is pretty impressive IMHO. Agreed. Could this rising equity glide path strategy be even better? 3.56% for 60 years retirement. https://i0.wp.com...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

VTV is good, it does just fine in all of the above metrics. But in general, large cap value funds that are purely cap-weighted (like VTV) don't have a whole lot of exposure to value. They'll behave roughly similar to total stock market funds. What do you think of IUSV? Ben Felix' analysis makes it ...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Spoke too soon? Looks like Small Caps are giving all their gains back...yikes! Hope this is just a 1 day pullback and not a trend... 1 day is noise. Try to look at >10 year performance. If you're unable to hold it for >10 years you probably shouldn't be investing in it. In fact 10 years is probably...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

VTV is good, it does just fine in all of the above metrics. But in general, large cap value funds that are purely cap-weighted (like VTV) don't have a whole lot of exposure to value. They'll behave roughly similar to total stock market funds. What do you think of IUSV? Ben Felix' analysis makes it ...
by YRT70
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Follow up on AQR article on no size effect
Replies: 13
Views: 1167

Re: Follow up on AQR article on no size effect

The claims for size are complicated: Small stocks do outperform large stocks. Small stocks (as in SmB) does not outperform after correcting for market beta. That is, the additional performance of small caps is fully explained by higher CAPM beta's. After correcting for value, the story doesn't chan...
by YRT70
Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Follow up on AQR article on no size effect
Replies: 13
Views: 1167

Re: Follow up on AQR article on no size effect

The claims for size are complicated: Small stocks do outperform large stocks. Small stocks (as in SmB) does not outperform after correcting for market beta. That is, the additional performance of small caps is fully explained by higher CAPM beta's. After correcting for value, the story doesn't chan...
by YRT70
Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are these statements about market orders correct? (market vs. marketable limit orders)
Replies: 7
Views: 555

Re: Are these statements about market orders correct? (market vs. marketable limit orders)

Yes, I think so. I will add that with no-commission trades I think you can try out various order types yourself and see what happens without costing you a dime. For example, suppose you want to buy 3 shares of VOO. You could submit 3 orders for 1 share each and use different order types. Or you wan...
by YRT70
Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are these statements about market orders correct? (market vs. marketable limit orders)
Replies: 7
Views: 555

Are these statements about market orders correct? (market vs. marketable limit orders)

I've been reading a couple of threads about (marketable) limit orders vs. market orders. This is because I'd like to understand more about buying very liquid ETFs like VOO, SPY, VTI, VXUS. I came across these 2 statements: (1) US markets are very liquid and stable, and reg NMS guarantees a fill with...
by YRT70
Mon Nov 23, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are limit orders an attempt at timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 2087

Re: Are limit orders an attempt at timing the market?

What is the benefit of using a market order instead of a marketable limit order? Why not always use marketable limit orders? The market order is ever-so-slightly easier and faster to enter, so you save time and reduce the chances of entering an incorrect price for the limit (and thereby possibly co...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are limit orders an attempt at timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 2087

Re: Are limit orders an attempt at timing the market?

What is the benefit of using a market order instead of a marketable limit order? Why not always use marketable limit orders? The market order is ever-so-slightly easier and faster to enter, so you save time and reduce the chances of entering an incorrect price for the limit (and thereby possibly co...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to minimise costs when switching from one ETF to another?
Replies: 3
Views: 284

Re: How to minimise costs when switching from one ETF to another?

The market moves are random; if you are out of the market for a minute between buying one fund and selling another, the market is just as likely to go down as up. I get that, it may work in my advantage too. But, if possible, I'd like to avoid the risk. I think it's possible to enter the buy and se...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are limit orders an attempt at timing the market?
Replies: 22
Views: 2087

Re: Are limit orders an attempt at timing the market?

I had asked a question earlier about my portfolio and the feedback was to sell off the bonds in my taxable and hold all of the bond allocation in my IRA. I'm new to process of trading and just learning about bid and ask, when to trade (apparently between 10am and 4pm?), market and limit orders, etc...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I was going by data listed here by Wade Pfau: 3.94% SWR for US only stocks, 3.45% for world portfolio (30 year retirement, 50/50 stocks/bonds). I think the most reasonable conclusion to draw from Pfau's data from that research is that global diversification improves SWRs. The world portfolio outper...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

Not sure if you're aware but the image from ERN is the historic performance of a US only portfolio. OP says he has international stocks. In historic analysis this usually leads to lower SWRs. The ERN table is using historical returns, and historically including international stocks in the portfolio...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I am doing some planning/simulation regarding early retirement say 45 years old. What would be a safe withdrawal rate for a bogleheads portfolio with an allocation of 70% (US and Intl stocks) and 30% (Bonds)? I am targeting 4 MM portfolio size with a 2% withdrawal rate yielding 80K of income each y...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 428
Views: 24071

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

I am doing some planning/simulation regarding early retirement say 45 years old. What would be a safe withdrawal rate for a bogleheads portfolio with an allocation of 70% (US and Intl stocks) and 30% (Bonds)? I am targeting 4 MM portfolio size with a 2% withdrawal rate yielding 80K of income each y...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to minimise costs when switching from one ETF to another?
Replies: 3
Views: 284

How to minimise costs when switching from one ETF to another?

I have few changes I want to make to my portfolio. This involves selling one liquid ETF and buying another. I've noticed that it sometimes happens that when I sell one and prices of the one that I want to buy are trending upwards, there can be quite a gap, leading to extra costs. To give an example ...
by YRT70
Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article compares S&P 500 ETFs, Vanguard VOO wins
Replies: 10
Views: 1254

Article compares S&P 500 ETFs, Vanguard VOO wins

Thought this was a pretty interesting and detailed analysis. The differences are small (of course) but for longer buy and hold periods it can matter somewhat. Best-In-Class S&P 500 ETF: Look To Vanguard For Top Indexed Returns Summary Vanguard's leadership in indexing and ETFs helps to keep mana...
by YRT70
Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance
Replies: 59
Views: 5450

Re: VWO (emerg markets) very disappointing performance

VWO is up 9.44% this year. Not bad.

Performance since inception 6.83%.
by YRT70
Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122271

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

investingdad wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:38 am I'll only say this, as sick to the stomach as I felt earlier in the year, I said this to my wife, "I don't know what to do, so we'll just do what we did in 2000 and 2008, nothing."

I'm a genius. For doing nothing. That's three out of three now.
I'm saving this quote.
by YRT70
Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

iShares US Small Cap Value Factor ETF (SVAL) has already reduced its expense ratio: down to 20bps from 30bps. Just two weeks after launch, this has to be the fastest fee reduction I can recall. Harvest those losses if you've got 'em. Has anybody looked at the differences between SVAL and IJS? SVAL'...
by YRT70
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I read the cited Humble Dollar article and liked it. It is written by an experienced honest investor with no axe to grind one way or the other on the issue of SCV or value in general. He is neither a value nor a TSM ideologue , not that there's anything wrong with being either. In spite of having s...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I like to look at this backtest: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&i...
by YRT70
Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

https://humbledollar.com/2020/11/factored-in/ Well yeah US SCV performance has been disappointing. Fortunately one can diversify internationally. The longest running US small value fund has returned the same as US total market, with greater volatility. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-p...
by YRT70
Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Jags4186 wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:21 am
YRT70 wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:47 am I'm surprised by how many people are posting about 1 day results here. Ok I understand the title is inviting but surely we can have some more interesting things to talk about. If 1 year of data is noise, what is 1 day?
1 day is jolly conversation.
IJS is up 2.93% now :sharebeer
by YRT70
Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I'm surprised by how many people are posting about 1 day results here. Ok I understand the title is inviting but surely we can have some more interesting things to talk about. If 1 year of data is noise, what is 1 day?
by YRT70
Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I have a larger position in iShares IJS that I'm considering to move to Avantis AVUV. To give an idea it's around 100k USD. How would you guys recommend I do this? Transaction costs are very low (IBKR). I was considering splitting the order in pieces of 10k USD to avoid problems with liquidity. My ...
by YRT70
Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I have a larger position in iShares IJS that I'm considering to move to Avantis AVUV. To give an idea it's around 100k USD. How would you guys recommend I do this? Transaction costs are very low (IBKR). I was considering splitting the order in pieces of 10k USD to avoid problems with liquidity. My p...
by YRT70
Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the BIG Crash coming?
Replies: 31
Views: 2176

Re: When is the BIG Crash coming?

Nispirius made a great post on this topic. He mentioned the Irrational exuberance speech by Greenspan and then it still took several years (4?) before the market crashed. If you had moved out when the speech was given you'd missed a lot of gains.

Maybe someone can link to it.
by YRT70
Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4077
Views: 321198

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I was reading a Dutch newspaper today. A guy leading 7 hospitals in the UK mentions they have concrete plans to start vaccination in December. I wonder if this will have any effect on the market. I couldn't find an English source for the article so here's the Dutch one: https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/...
by YRT70
Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3372
Views: 252301

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

^ Very interesting Vineviz.

I think Ben would be interested in that too. They just started a new forum. https://community.rationalreminder.ca/login

There's a lot of discussion about factors and small cap value of course.