Search found 6711 matches

by KyleAAA
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gated communities pros and cons? (Atlanta or anywhere.)
Replies: 67
Views: 4580

Re: Gated communities pros and cons? (Atlanta or anywhere.)

My main problem with gated communities is that they are universally in locations I wouldn't want to live. Regarding Atlanta specifically, you won't have a problem with crime if you live in a nice area regardless of whether or not there's a gate. Huh? Been here 22 years. Lived in-town for 19 of them...
by KyleAAA
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gated communities pros and cons? (Atlanta or anywhere.)
Replies: 67
Views: 4580

Re: Gated communities pros and cons? (Atlanta or anywhere.)

A true sign of the most obnoxious kind of privilege. In Atlanta, you could also live in Inman Park, Old Fourth Word, Cabbage Town, Virginia Highlands, or any one of the other excellent neighborhoods in-town. :) ++Inman Park, my favorite neighborhood. It's pricey these days, though. Why bother to mo...
by KyleAAA
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gated communities pros and cons? (Atlanta or anywhere.)
Replies: 67
Views: 4580

Re: Gated communities pros and cons? (Atlanta or anywhere.)

My main problem with gated communities is that they are universally in locations I wouldn't want to live. Regarding Atlanta specifically, you won't have a problem with crime if you live in a nice area regardless of whether or not there's a gate.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Air Conditioning? [How to finance?]
Replies: 76
Views: 5429

Re: Air Conditioning?

$7k seems reasonable depending on your square footage if you already have ductwork installed. I spent less than that in Atlanta where it gets much hotter. I bet you’d get a deal if you waited until November.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonus at Job - Weird Situation
Replies: 34
Views: 6218

Re: Bonus at Job - Weird Situation

I don’t know how leveling at your company works, but where I work there’s a lot more long term gain in a promotion vs a double bonus any given year because the equity component ramps up very quickly with each promotion. Can you elaborate a bit more? What do you mean by the equity component ramping ...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonus at Job - Weird Situation
Replies: 34
Views: 6218

Re: Bonus at Job - Weird Situation

I don’t know how leveling at your company works, but where I work there’s a lot more long term gain in a promotion vs a double bonus any given year because the equity component ramps up very quickly with each promotion.
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11482

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I was under the impression that they didn't meet their quarterly benchmarks? Add that to the recent Facebook scandal and investors start to lose some faith. It's all speculative in the short term though. I can't image Facebook actually going away. What are you gonna replace it with? Myspace? Nothin...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Recruiters/Headhunters to find a new job?
Replies: 27
Views: 1062

Re: Using Recruiters/Headhunters to find a new job?

FWIW ,companies generally decide in advance whether they are willing to accept candidates from outside recruiters or not and are very clear about it on the job posting. It does happen occassionally, but for the most part 3rd party recruiters won't even try submitting candidates to those jobs because...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 27, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Recruiters/Headhunters to find a new job?
Replies: 27
Views: 1062

Re: Using Recruiters/Headhunters to find a new job?

They get paid a % of your salary, but all else equal they'd rather have X% of a smaller number than negotiate too aggressively and lose the placement. What part of the country do you live in and how much ML experience do you have? Should be easy to find a job if your skills are legit. But you should...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11482

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I told my 3 teen/young adult children that Facebook stock dropped considerably today. They all responded with "no surprise, I don't use it anymore and none of our friends do either. It is loaded with junk and ads. It's annoying". I am not a Facebooker, but I wonder if my social media-addicted child...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11482

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I still can't understand why anybody ever saw any future in FB that wasn't its complete implosion. Facebook is only as good as the people who use it and everybody who uses it will inevitably get bored with it and move on. I'm just surprised it's taken this long. I would have thought that a cesspool...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11482

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Whew, I'm glad I didn't accept that job offer to work at FB and even gladder I didn't buy the stock 5 years ago -- No one, ever I remember being on our trading floor when they IPO'd, I had a bit of money to play with as it was just after bonus time (before I went strictly index only) and I remember...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11482

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Whew, I'm glad I didn't accept that job offer to work at FB and even gladder I didn't buy the stock 5 years ago

-- No one, ever
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flooring: Hard wood vs Ceramic Tile that looks like wood
Replies: 26
Views: 2832

Re: Flooring: Hard wood vs Ceramic Tile that looks like wood

A good quality top nail hardwood floor will last well over 100 years (sanding every 15 or 20 years) and look better to boot. The ceramic stuff has improved a lot, but it still scratches unnaturally and won’t last as long as good quality hardwood. I live in a house with 110 year old floors and it has...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

EDIT: Can you value the business you work at Corn? Not sure if you have access to that information. Sometimes being a business owner and experiencing how a business works -- cash needs -- etc helps one to learn how to value a business (this isn't always the case). I can't find the quote but someone...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

EDIT: Can you value the business you work at Corn? Not sure if you have access to that information. Sometimes being a business owner and experiencing how a business works -- cash needs -- etc helps one to learn how to value a business (this isn't always the case). I can't find the quote but someone...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Nah. If you sell your paper today, you WILL pay a 15% (or up to 38%) tax on it. If you sell paper in a retirement account, you WILL pay a 10% fee on top of that. Taking your own money out of a Roth IRA doesn't count since that is nothing more than the original principal. My passive rental income go...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

The terms for leverage in real estate do not resemble the terms for leverage for equities. Most of the benefits of investing in real estate derive from leverage. The same cannot be said for equities. I think its interesting that stock market investors assume "its all the same". No, its really not. ...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Oh man, cognitive dissonance 101. I DO have real estate profits, every month. How do I know? All of my rents flow into and all of my expenses flow out of the same bank account. At the end of each month, there is $3500 give or take in that account. When it comes time to do taxes, due to mortgage int...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Oh man, cognitive dissonance 101. I DO have real estate profits, every month. How do I know? All of my rents flow into and all of my expenses flow out of the same bank account. At the end of each month, there is $3500 give or take in that account. When it comes time to do taxes, due to mortgage int...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Is it a meaningful term. The quotes don't make sense. Real estate pays you in cash flow, capital appreciation, amortization/principal paydown, force value, inflation hedging/profiting, depreciation, net tax benefit. Equities pays you in capital appreciation and a 1.5-2.5% dividend, which is quite l...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

(what is a quality-adjusted capital gain?) Good question. I have no idea but wager it is something that doesn't need to be considered. Any "quality" or "risk" adjustment is nonsense. All that matters is money in vs money out. Returns. No need to "adjust" to make low return investments seem more app...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

(what is a quality-adjusted capital gain?) Good question. I have no idea but wager it is something that doesn't need to be considered. Any "quality" or "risk" adjustment is nonsense. All that matters is money in vs money out. Returns. No need to "adjust" to make low return investments seem more app...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Available 2018 tax estimator
Replies: 44
Views: 9278

Re: Best Available 2018 tax estimator

It's not comprehensive, but I've found this estimator to be useful in making back-of-the-envelope estimates.

https://taxfoundation.org/2018-tax-reform-calculator/
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engineers come in.
Replies: 108
Views: 8374

Re: Engineers come in.

I had a hard time with some of the math, particularly the more esoteric CS theory classes. I don't know anybody who cruised through their CS degree without any difficulty, although Calculus isn't what tripped most people up.
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

...Internal rate of return is the most comprehensive, honest way to report investment returns.... Au contraire . As I pointed out above, I can dramatically increase my IRR by using a smaller down-payment. Needless to say, anyone who can put down 20%, can with absolute certainty, put down 10%, 5%, o...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

...Internal rate of return is the most comprehensive, honest way to report investment returns.... Au contraire . As I pointed out above, I can dramatically increase my IRR by using a smaller down-payment. Needless to say, anyone who can put down 20%, can with absolute certainty, put down 10%, 5%, o...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Yup. IMO the best metric for real estate is IRR. The best metric for indexing is CAGR. With stocks and index funda, best case scenario you will pay 15% in capital gains tax. In real estate, I have legally payed zero every year, if not a small paper loss. Just another oft overlooked point. No. Your ...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. It is absurd on it's face -- a bunch of amateur landlords routinely getting double Warren Buffett's annualized returns? It is also impossible, because if sustainable 38% returns were so widely available, there would be trillions of dollars pouring into real estate...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....
Replies: 103
Views: 9340

Re: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....

I like the idea of selling 90-95% and holding on to the rest. But the reality of the situation is that the probability of the company surviving into the next generation isn't particularly high, even if it has survived for the last 100 years. Keep that in mind.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Semi-Retire by 40-45, possible/realistic?
Replies: 21
Views: 3795

Re: Semi-Retire by 40-45, possible/realistic?

It's possible but the kid may end up being more expensive than you think. Based on your numbers it seems realistic, but I would invest more aggressively than 70/30 for a semi-retirement that long. How long do you plan ti wirk part Time? Your portfolio will need to at least double in real terms befor...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 16176

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I'm a private banker, and I find this discussion very thought provoking. In my view, it is not the thing or investment being purchased that makes leverage "good" or "bad" - or more advantageous or more risky. It's the loan structure. If the only way to borrow to buy a home was on a high interest ra...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Day 2018
Replies: 88
Views: 10640

Re: Amazon Prime Day 2018

Not many decent deals this year IMO. I wouldn’t want to be the engineer who accidentally brought the site down earlier today...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surface Pro(2017) vs 9.7" iPad 2018 (edited)
Replies: 35
Views: 2835

Re: Surface Pro(2017) vs 9.7" iPad 2018 (edited)

Surface is better for producing content whereas the iPad tends to be better for consuming. Since it sounds like you’ll be doing more producing, I’d say go with the surface.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Kyle has been the only person to date on 3 different forums that has fervently pointed out that the returns are "undefined", not infinite. I also have 2 properties where I pulled out all the money I had in the deal through a cash out refinance, having $0.00 in the properties, yet still getting mont...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?
Replies: 45
Views: 2623

Re: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?

I don’t see how 2 funds is simpler than 3 funds in a meaningful way. Is it taking you too much time to manage?
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Kyle has been the only person to date on 3 different forums that has fervently pointed out that the returns are "undefined", not infinite. I also have 2 properties where I pulled out all the money I had in the deal through a cash out refinance, having $0.00 in the properties, yet still getting mont...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Kyle has been the only person to date on 3 different forums that has fervently pointed out that the returns are "undefined", not infinite. I also have 2 properties where I pulled out all the money I had in the deal through a cash out refinance, having $0.00 in the properties, yet still getting mont...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Can I get 10 loans for $150k with 20% down? I have only held one mortgage at a time and it's always been a VA loan with 0% down. Seems I could get infinite returns on one rental with that setup. Yes you can. I have done a "nothing down" deal but used private money. So I earn cash flow and did not i...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction
Replies: 44
Views: 7704

Re: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction

I think your idea to take less equity risk in light of your situation is reasonable. Your idea to buy puts on the market as a hedge is not.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 16176

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

You can leverage real estate more cheaply and on much more favorable terms than stocks. Fixed rates and no margin calls are big advantages compared to adjustable margin rates that are aggressively called when the market turns down.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 18049

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% is extremely doable with leveraged rentals and perhaps even if you use property manager, if you buy well. Real estate isn't for everyone, but 20-30% is realistic. Ignore the "Real estate pays you 5 ways instead of just 1 way" people. The number of ways an investment pays is irrelevant. There is ...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a $1.8-2M house
Replies: 54
Views: 9689

Re: Affording a $1.8-2M house

We ended up just buying in Seattle itself. Dumps sell for $1mm on the east side but deals can still be had outside the trendy in town neighborhoods. I disagree there is a bubble either in Seattle real estate or tech compensation. The fundamentals are sound and secular trends like the transition to ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Logging out 20 acre lot?
Replies: 37
Views: 2727

Re: Logging out 20 acre lot?

If you cut the trees, it will decrease the value of the property. So it's a long-term play, since if you can't sell it for enough to pay off the loan today, after logging it will take you even longer. You can cash out a pretty nice lump sum in the meantime, though. Could you try renting the house in...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?
Replies: 136
Views: 10563

Re: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?

When someone else does it.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 10145

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I'm using 4% real for a heavily tilted 70/30 portfolio. I plan to have so much money it won't matter if I end up getting 2%.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 15897

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

The stock price of Netflix is quite mystery to me. From value investor point of view, the company financial is quite garbage with regard to its near 300 P/E ratio, 15+ years after IPO, still negative free cash flow, still heavy in debt and depends on borrowing for growth instead of internal cash fl...