Search found 6716 matches

by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 107152

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:42 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:08 pm


Even automobiles and appliances have IoT built in now.
What is IoT? I googled it and found 'Internet of things'; is that what you meant?
Yes. This is the future: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/overv ... -of-cloud/
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income (US vs Europe)
Replies: 55
Views: 3856

Re: Income (US vs Europe)

For software engineers yes, salaries are MUCH higher in the US other than European outposts of companies like Google or FB. In the US, you can easily make $200k without having to work for a few top companies whereas in Europe, you likely can't. I can't comment on other professions, but I would assum...
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3893

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

Yes, but what matters is how an asset works in the context of a portfolio, not how it works in isolation. Nobody is advocating a 100% bond allocation. In the context of a portfolio including a significant allocation to equities (say, 40%+ but preferably 60%+) they have provided valuable ballast with...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8937

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

Smart move. Can't say my risk adjusted returns have been any better with RE than with other asset classes. "Risk-adjusted" returns is an extremely nebulous term. One person's low risk-adjusted returns are another person's high risk-adjusted returns. It's subjective. For instance, if I have a 0% or ...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8937

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

As long as it's not real estate, then Kyle approves :wink: I own quite a bit of real estate. Smart move. Can't say my risk adjusted returns have been any better with RE than with other asset classes. "Risk-adjusted" returns is an extremely nebulous term. One person's low risk-adjusted returns are a...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8937

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

With expenses that small relative to your portfolio it doesn't really matter what you invest in. Any reasonable asset allocation will be fine. As long as it's not real estate, then Kyle approves :wink: I own quite a bit of real estate. Smart move. Can't say my risk adjusted returns have been any be...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8937

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:04 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:05 pm
With expenses that small relative to your portfolio it doesn't really matter what you invest in. Any reasonable asset allocation will be fine.
As long as it's not real estate, then Kyle approves :wink:

I own quite a bit of real estate.
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8937

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

With expenses that small relative to your portfolio it doesn't really matter what you invest in. Any reasonable asset allocation will be fine.
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?
Replies: 32
Views: 2619

Re: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?

Wow props to him, I thought he is a greedy bastard :D He is the richest billionaire without any philanthropy activities (when compared to others). He just gave out what? $7 avg increase X 40 X 52 weeks X 250,000 workers = $3.6 billion out of the company pocket book (probably less - not all worker w...
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?
Replies: 32
Views: 2619

Re: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?

I think part of it is political pressure (Amazon is not well-liked in Seattle) and yeah, part of it is probably what you say although I don't know how you would quantify what the impact would actually be with all the complexity involved. I wouldn't discount that he probably legitimately thinks it's ...
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]
Replies: 98
Views: 6890

Re: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]

Because net worth is defined as assets - liabilities. Real Estate is an asset because it has economic value and is easy to convert into a cash flow.
by KyleAAA
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.
Replies: 87
Views: 8644

Re: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.

If you want to get mega-rich ($20mm+) you need to start your own business and scale it to tens of millions in revenue, at least. It can be in any field, doesn't need to have anything to do with Wall Street. If that’s the case I have an idea. Only problem is I’m not well acquainted with the business...
by KyleAAA
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 46
Views: 3772

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

Drive 100 miles from downtown in any direction and start looking there. I can't even stand driving through Atlanta. ive lived in atlanta and currently live in not-atlanta, georgia. ive been surprised at how much everyone from not-atlanta HATES atlanta. are other states this way? it is astounding to...
by KyleAAA
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 46
Views: 3772

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

I've lived in: Decatur Midtown Virginia Highland Inman Park Grant Park (technically Ormewood Park but it's just to the east and a quick walk) Feel free to ask me any questions about those neighborhoods. I grew up in Atlanta and lived 95% of my adult life there so I can probably answer questions abou...
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7571

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

How much did you have invested in 2008? Now multiply that by 100. Would you have reacted the same way?
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.
Replies: 87
Views: 8644

Re: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.

If you want to get mega-rich ($20mm+) you need to start your own business and scale it to tens of millions in revenue, at least. It can be in any field, doesn't need to have anything to do with Wall Street. If you just want to get regular rich (say, $5-10mm net worth by the time you're 50) you can d...
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Suze Orman - "I hate the FIRE movement."
Replies: 75
Views: 9688

Re: Suze Orman - "I hate the FIRE movement."

I agree the risks are downplayed too much by the FIRE movement, but this is the opposite extreme. If you can get your expenses down into the 3% range, you should be safe from most shocks. The 4% often advocated by the FIRE movement is too high, though.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?
Replies: 22
Views: 2548

Re: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?

It depends on why you have to use it, but without knowing more, my advice would be that you minimize what you use it for, carefully review the privacy settings and exercise control of your posts. Don't post publicly unless you mean / have to. Don't share with friends of friends unless you have to /...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 46
Views: 3772

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

Not much to go on based on the info given, but anywhere along the east side beltline would fit the bill from Morningside down to ormewood/grant park. Decatur is also a great option. Atlanta is almost exclusively filled with independent cafes so I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at . Perhaps i...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car accident, diminished value claim?
Replies: 18
Views: 1633

Re: Car accident, diminished value claim?

I’ve made several claims from several different insurance companies and it was never more difficult than just asking. If you disagree with the amount they offer it might be more trouble, but I’ve always gotten what I feel were fair offers. Most of these were in Georgia where this sort of thing is re...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?
Replies: 22
Views: 2548

Re: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?

Don’t post sensitive personal data to Facebook and don’t used Facebook federated login as an identity provider for other sites. Hackers don’t care about your puppy pictures or which restaurants you’ve liked, but they know a lot of people use their Facebook account to connect to other sites that may ...
by KyleAAA
Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 8095

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

if you look at firms like StarCapital, they estimate future returns based on CAPE for all countries using the same regression. Barclays, for which Shiller is consulting, also simply compares the CAPE of different countries. I guess RA does the same. At the same time it's true that different countri...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield
Replies: 16
Views: 2343

Re: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield

Dividends can and do get cut in a recession, so it's unwise to rely on that not happening.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL
Replies: 21
Views: 1436

Re: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL

I have a 2015 Mazda, performed all factory recommended maintenance, and doubt I spent half that in the first 3 years. Find a good independent mechanic.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of rabbits
Replies: 66
Views: 3836

Re: How to get rid of rabbits

Get a bald eagle or two to nest in your yard.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.
Replies: 25
Views: 1581

Re: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.

Rainer is starting to get iffy this time of year. If it's cloudy when you are there, you won't be able to see ANYTHING. It was surrounded by clouds today but most days last week were pretty good, so you might get lucky. Victoria is likely to have the reliably nicest weather. Traffic in Seattle isn't...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 157
Views: 13450

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

Why wouldn’t you quit in this situation? I’m having trouble figuring out why any rational person would stay.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 5595

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

IIRC Ben Graham advocated using 3 years worth of earnings to value companies, which in theory seems much more reasonable than 10. I wonder how CAPE3 has performed.
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 5595

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

I agree. I think the market is fairly priced or maybe just slightly overpriced. Morningstar seems to agree. That's why I don't buy the "expect low returns over the next decade" arguments. Why shouldn't we expect average returns? I think 8-10% is very realistic and probably more likely than the 3-6% ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4070

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4070

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4070

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME . To one stock, or to all of them ? I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a sm...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 4070

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME. 2-4% property appreciation and 4-6% cash returns seem about right, on average. I wouldn't bother with unleveraged properties because it isn't passive. With leverage, sustained 20%+ returns are quite comm...
by KyleAAA
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 51
Views: 5672

Re: Vanguard platform

The OP wants to know why they should switch. The answer is you do not have to and if you invest in mutual funds only, there is no reason to switch. In fact SOME functionality (that you may or may not care about) is removed if you switch. This has been discussed many times on this forum, the specifi...
by KyleAAA
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Overnight near Atlanta?
Replies: 30
Views: 1663

Re: Overnight near Atlanta?

Doesn't sound like you'll have time to do anything in the city, so I wouldn't bother staying there. Sunday morning traffic should be fairly light (unless you run into construction) so I'd probably stop in Marietta. It has a nice little square with good restaurants and is right off 75. FYI, the drive...
by KyleAAA
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth
Replies: 38
Views: 8473

Re: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth

With a savings rate like that, you might be in a place where you could conceivably retire comfortably in 5 years. Not that I would in your case, but it basically means you could follow pretty much any reasonable strategy and still end up fine, so don't sweat the small stuff. Your portfolio is fine. ...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding an investment for soon-to-be-received large sum
Replies: 10
Views: 1204

Re: Finding an investment for soon-to-be-received large sum

Why not more commercial real estate if that was deemed passive enough in the past? Mid 7 figures isn't enough to do anything interesting.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I "buying high" if I transfer stable value funds over to stock index fund now?
Replies: 26
Views: 1958

Re: Am I "buying high" if I transfer stable value funds over to stock index fund now?

Nobody knows what the market will do next year, but it's very likely to be much higher in 20 years.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 2051

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Factor investing is as simple as total market investing and doesn't require advisors or a mountain of funds. These days there are quite decent multifactor funds on the market but if you want to keep it ultra simple, exchange half of your total market index funds with small value index funds. That wi...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of Retiring at 52, Please Critique Plan
Replies: 61
Views: 9587

Re: Thinking of Retiring at 52, Please Critique Plan

Yeah, you can afford to retire. The main wildcard is health insurance, as noted above, but a LOT would have to go wring for you to run into trouble. You should also figure our when and how much to expect from SDDI. It makes no sense not to claim it, none whatsoever.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index funds - how do they work? Do passive funds reliant on active funds indirectly?
Replies: 15
Views: 1186

Re: Index funds - how do they work? Do passive funds reliant on active funds indirectly?

They rely on active investors to perform price discovery, yes. Not necessarily on active funds, specifically.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 94
Views: 14690

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

20% would be an absolute minimum for me but with your income you should be able to save 35% without trying.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 51
Views: 5672

Re: Vanguard platform

KyleAAA I have done quite a few as well, and specifically IN THE FUND BUSINESS, at multiple fund managers. 1) Not as big a deal as you think, at least not the website complexity. I have built such a website with disparate functions for different groups of users, was quite easy to build and maintain...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 51
Views: 5672

Re: Vanguard platform

KyleAAA I have done quite a few as well, and specifically IN THE FUND BUSINESS, at multiple fund managers. 1) Not as big a deal as you think, at least not the website complexity. I have built such a website with disparate functions for different groups of users, was quite easy to build and maintain...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 51
Views: 5672

Re: Vanguard platform

Lol, I am surprised there are still holdouts. OP, are you the type that still uses a landline? I was able to wait until 2009 to get a cell phone but eventually I caved in. Some people have restrictions by employers, as to where they can hold a brokerage account. Vanguard is not on my list, I have t...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 51
Views: 5672

Re: Vanguard platform

Lol, I am surprised there are still holdouts. OP, are you the type that still uses a landline? I was able to wait until 2009 to get a cell phone but eventually I caved in. Some people have restrictions by employers, as to where they can hold a brokerage account. Vanguard is not on my list, I have t...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 3189

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

Maybe in the sense that it would tend to have small and value factor tilts. But it would probably have negative quality factor exposure.
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5869

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

You are using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions. People have been predicting low equity returns over the next decade for well over a decade. I haven't seen a compelling argument to expect less than 8-10% going forward, maybe a bit more for a heavily tilted portfolio.The pessimistic prediction...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6815

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

I am not convinced by th logic that lower real returns are to be expected. Supposedly we should have been getting low returns for a while now and I’m not sure the underlying assumptions hold up.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash sale question- are ITOT and VTI Substantially Identical?
Replies: 78
Views: 7360

Re: Wash sale question- are ITOT and VTI Substantially Identical?

My own rule of thumb is that if it follows a different index, it is not substantially identical. I think that's probably overly conservative but it's a clear signal to go on and there are generally no shortage if ETFs out there following very-similar-but-not-quite-the-same indices to choose from.