Search found 522 matches

by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

*yawn*

Wake me up when we get a series of 3%+ single day drops or another 20%+ correction. Everything else is just noise in this bunny market

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 250
Views: 26635

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Please close out (freeze) Wrecked Capital's short position in Macy's (M). Our shareholder's are quite satisfied with a nearly 50% gain.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When and should I buy dream car? 1997 Toyota Supra
Replies: 38
Views: 3416

Re: When and should I buy dream car? 1997 Toyota Supra

As a massive car guy myself and an avid Supra fan, I personally wouldn’t pursue it. I know it’s likely not what you want to hear but we both missed the opportunities to buy this car at ‘reasonable’ prices. That generation is over two decades old and will reflect that in driving experience, maintenan...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Approaching Age 40s
Replies: 22
Views: 3200

Re: Asset Allocation Approaching Age 40s

Over 25 years the S&P500 has basically increased 5x; to get a similar return the S&P will need to be at 15,000 in 25 years. Not sure how reasonable this is or isn't, with baby boomers entering retirement/withdrawal phase. Nonevent in my opinion. Millennial group is demographically larger than baby ...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 179
Views: 18046

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

ReformedSpender wrote:
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:54 pm
Overnight funding in effect for repo’s until Oct 10th (at this time)
Size of repo auction getting larger, up to $100B from $75B. May now extend through the end of the year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-adds-7 ... 1569416576
by ReformedSpender
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 179
Views: 18046

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

Overnight funding in effect for repo’s until Oct 10th (at this time)

:shock:
by ReformedSpender
Fri Sep 20, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative
Replies: 26
Views: 3324

Re: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative

I believe it is exceptionally unlikely that the US will go into negative interest rates anytime in the foreseeable future and probably never. First of all, unlike Japan and Europe where there are negative rates, our economy is still strong and growing , low unemployment, strong consumer confidence ...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's the BEST money market fund now?
Replies: 7
Views: 2072

Re: What's the BEST money market fund now?

Federal money market automatically, but Prime pays more at VG. What’s your state tax? Treasury money markets are exempt but lower yielding. Not necessarily lower yielding when you account for tax equivalent yield due to no state tax. Regardless, LOT’s of threads on this forum discussing the in’s an...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 7834

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

Backtesting bonds over long periods looks great now because we're at the end of a very long bond bull market (37 years) when 10 year Treasury yields went from 15% to about 1.5% recently. Returns were massively juiced by constantly increasing principal values of long duration bonds as interest rates...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 179
Views: 18046

Re: Fed Repo operation

In a nutshell, primary dealers who are forced to buy an issuances by law are seeing reserves drained (high demand for cash) and thus those dealers who would normally fund a higher repo rate don’t have the funds to lend. Ultimately, this means the federal reserve has a decision to make, fund this def...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mortgage Rates - Time to Refi?
Replies: 23
Views: 1615

Re: Mortgage Rates - Time to Refi?

Opportunities to refi may only get brighter if the US is truly heading to near-zero percent interest rates like the majority of the world :wink:
by ReformedSpender
Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 123
Views: 37822

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Whelp, that yield was fun while it lasted.

Now to look for an alternative...

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College age male: How much money for food?
Replies: 138
Views: 6685

Re: College age male: How much money for food?

<r><QUOTE author="Goal33" post_id="4725743" time="1567145263" user_id="88855"><s>[quote=Goal33 post_id=4725743 time=1567145263 user_id=88855]</s> Wow I spent way way way more back in 2013 as a male college student in San Diego than these prices quoted. <br/> <br/> Here’s some advice you didn’t ask f...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maui Honeymoon Daily Spending Budget
Replies: 39
Views: 2911

Re: Maui Honeymoon Daily Spending Budget

Maui Brewing Company plant tour, Road to Hana and watching the sunrise at Haleakala are a MUST on Maui. Enjoy!

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

rocketsrule wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:54 am
This market right now is hilarious. Should be called the Duncan 500 considering all the yo'yo'ing
Historically 'normal' market action. 2017 on the other hand was not...

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inverted Yield Curve - Anyone making portfolio changes?
Replies: 27
Views: 3374

Re: Inverted Yield Curve - Anyone making portfolio changes?

ChrisO wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:35 am
Nope. I am young and just started my investment years so a recession would be good for me as I can max out my equities on sale.
A recession does not imply a stock market drawdown or crash. Equities may remain stagnate.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 pm

We could just be bouncing around 2800 and 3000 for the next decade or two, which would be just as painful (and frankly worse for accumulators).
How so? Accumulators would be fortunate if such an event unfolded
by ReformedSpender
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 116
Views: 12413

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Stay the course cus nobody knows nuttin' :beer


Image
by ReformedSpender
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 116
Views: 12413

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Oy vey. Yes, it has FINALLY inverted. Sit back and relax... Unless of course your one of the many BH's with a 100% US equity allocation and little to no emergency fund. Maybe you should buckle up :D :P Joking aside, do you realize AFTER the yield curve inverted in 1994, the S&P 500 gained 41.5% over...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 92
Views: 11110

Re: this time it's different

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:45 am

feh,

1) Let's say that is true, why would invest in oversea and EM would be better? They would be in the worst shape.

KlangFool
And you know this how?
by ReformedSpender
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom. I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over. I'm in short term tre...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

SouthernFIRE wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:44 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:41 am
andronikus wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:52 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
10yr yield is down 6% today
New record I think (for one day)
Down 6.5% currently today. Treasuries getting smoked...

:shock:
You mean Treasuries are smoking...prices and yields move inversely.
Yes, correct lol

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

andronikus wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:52 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
10yr yield is down 6% today
New record I think (for one day)
Down 6.5% currently today. Treasuries getting smoked...

:shock:
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?
Replies: 33
Views: 4068

Re: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?

Stocks should be cheaper today then they were on Friday :D

S&P down 1.5%
DOW down 1.4%
NAS down 2.1%
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 20874

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

venkman wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:12 am
"Nobody knows nothin'. Except that you don't need international stocks. That's totally knowable."
lol

:mrgreen:
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house to buy?
Replies: 14
Views: 1362

Re: How much house to buy?

msk wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:24 am
home should not be worth more than 3x single income or 2.5x combined income, regardless of interest rates, etc.
Depending where you live, that guidance is getting harder and harder to comply. Home prices have drastically outpaced wages/salaries. 4-5x+ income can be quite common
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

While the market is up ~20% YTD and it might feel like a never ending rally, since October 2018, the S&P is up just 3%.

Perspective
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the market
Replies: 28
Views: 2455

Re: Timing the market

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:58 pm
Time in the market is better than timing the market.
/End of thread

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 123
Views: 37822

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Treasuries have been ticking back up the past few days and VUSXX will follow suit. Not losing sleep over 0.05%

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

Thoughts? Reactions? Thoughts? We're near the top if not at it. This time is NOT different, once the Fed does actually cut, it's all over but the crying. Idiots gleefully bought in anticipation of and after fed cuts in 2007-2008 too. And what if it is like 1995? Rates were cut by 25 bps in the summ...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

anon_investor wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:15 am
Tell me when it gets to 4,000 :greedy
S&P was at 2,000 just three short years ago. Here's to 4,000 in short order

:mrgreen: :beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:55 am
This morning, S&P 500 index has crossed 3,000 for the first time ever.

Anyone know what’s causing the S&P to soar today?
Powell's congressional testimony
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and INTL Returns
Replies: 18
Views: 2447

Re: US and INTL Returns

jibantik wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:22 pm
BUY THE HAYSTACK. It is literally that simple.
/End of thread
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​
Replies: 42
Views: 6640

Re: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​

Here we go again...perpetual recency bias imo

International has outperformed before and it WILL outperform again.

stan1 wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:04 am

Let me ask this, though. Would you recommend all US to a grandchild in their 20s?
Diversify, diversify, diversify

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:59 am


There’s a good chance that we’ll touch both the high and the low for the month before the end of trading today.
LOL, touché

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 10597

Re: Excluding International All Together?

International allocation has been debated ad nauseum on this board and may be the most contentious issue that gets regularly discussed here, with strongly held opinions by those in both camps.. There are some very long threads about the issue; If you search the board a bit you'll find the threads a...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 10597

Re: Excluding International All Together?

Here we go again... Can one of the many other US v ex-US threads just be “pinned” to the top of the board? This. For the love of all that is good and just... These threads never get anywhere. Aren't topics of this nature, in essence, the intent of this forum as a whole? :confused If you don't like ...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695903

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

S&P down almost -1% currently. Consider this a courtesy "bump" for the thread, things might just be warming up :D
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, since 12/24/2018 or about 6 months, so yep, it is the longest so far this year. lol Some Fun facts: Rates were cut by 25 bps in the summer of 1995. Not only was the S&P 500 at a record high, but the index was already up 20% for the year. The market preceded to return an average of 27% annuali...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 16512

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

cuendillar wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:34 pm
Since living through not one, not two, but three crappy financial periods (70's, 80's, 2008-09)
Were you no longer with us in '00-'01?

:confused
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7376
Views: 601548

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:18 pm
Lets agree to temper this thread until we officially make new ATH's. We currently trading where we were ~18 months ago.

Keeping it real
:beer
Looks like today might be that day. Futures currently indicate a possible new all time high today

:moneybag
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 113
Views: 12876

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

lostdog wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:12 am
Were there threads in 2017 asking if it's a good idea to get back in the international index?
You know as well as anyone else there weren't any; recency bias ran rampant. :D

"Why hold international?", "Why bonds?" or "Why not go 100% stocks?" were just a few of my personal favorites.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I a Boglehead?
Replies: 31
Views: 2917

Re: Am I a Boglehead?

Only if you know the super secret password

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 113
Views: 12876

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

Vanguard Total International Stock Index expense ratio (admiral class) - 0.11 Vanguard International Growth (admiral class)- 0.32 You would be paying fee almost three times higher. Has the returns been almost three times as good? If you don't have at least $50k to earn admiral shares in the growth f...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?
Replies: 16
Views: 2081

Re: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?

vu8 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:52 pm
Sadly VTI will have slightly lower cost in the future I think...
Currently by one-hundredth of a percentage point...

Nothing to lose sleep over

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toyota Sienna tire replacement at 12k miles
Replies: 72
Views: 5068

Re: Toyota Sienna tire replacement at 12k miles

Well, chances are high you just replaced your sub-optimal tires with the exact same sub-optimal tires and you were charged a 'dealer premium'

:oops:
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Report - How America Saves 2019
Replies: 7
Views: 1318

Re: Vanguard Report - How America Saves 2019

changingtimes wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:58 am
Am I the only one for whom "5 million" is surprisingly low?
According to the report, the number was just 3.6 million in 2014.

It's all relative
:beer