Search found 345 matches

by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?
Replies: 88
Views: 9021

Re: Vanguard investor class shares on their way out?

Looks like your suspicions were right. Vanguard change admiral shares of 38 mutual fund to 3k minimum and closed the investor share class on a select few

https://investornews.vanguard/our-index ... en-better/

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 16394

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

They've outperformed before and they'll outperform again (imo)

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One now at 1.85 [Money Market Rate To 1.85% APY]
Replies: 57
Views: 8206

Re: Capital One now at 1.85 [Money Market Rate To 1.85% APY]

Rates (finally) tagged 2.00% for Capital One Money Market

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 7627

Re: Are you all staying the course?

I've been market timing and have made additional contributions to my holdings.

Tsk-tsk I know

:mrgreen:
by ReformedSpender
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingo :-) Haha, I can assist with the definition. The rest, however, is on you https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gap_(cha...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

ReformedSpender wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:39 am

For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Image
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P. When are we going to fill the DJIA gap from 1933? There are many SPY gaps from 1993 too. https://twitter.com/oddstats/status/973959348073328641?lang=bg Yes, gaps do go...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? Really no different than asking what news necessitated a 7% pop in the S&P from the recent late October lows. For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below ...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16713

Re: Diversification Regret

We're back to the basics but there are a lot of people who I respect chiming in on this thread. For Total Stock Market ETF as of 9/30/2018 the Top 10 holdings make up 18.7% of total assets. Those companies are: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Facebook, JP Morgan Chase, Johns...
by ReformedSpender
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 114
Views: 14591

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:26 am


If the US has a significant recession next year we will say we should have seen the downturn in the housing market coming. If it does not, then I think these conditions will keep on going for a while.
I'm going to assume you haven't seen the performance YTD of home builder names :shock:
by ReformedSpender
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 109067

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

He does say to avoid it, but if you must invest in it, don't go over 20%. I don't get the 30+ year horizon argument. You could have made it in the past, and it didn't work out. I'm with Bogle and history on this - 0% for me. Do you know what the next several decades holds in store? Things change an...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 109067

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

oldzey wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:21 pm

I'm with Jack! :beer
Jack does not state to avoid ex-US all together, but rather limit your exposure (~20%) :beer

For those with 30+ years of investment horizon, I'd wager to say there are compelling reasons to be diversified
by ReformedSpender
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1296
Views: 122241

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

JoMoney wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:00 pm
Pretty strong day... figured I'd bump this thread to jinx it ;)
Just don't look at the volume indicator

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16713

Re: Diversification Regret

Great post, thank you

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6626

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]

It's not just reasonable (international) valuations. Also a strong dollar recently. When (not if) international stocks mean revert back to parity or near parity with US stocks (as they have before), and currencies mean revert too, that's going to be some pretty tremendous upside I would imagine. Ye...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forever Stamps as an Investment?
Replies: 32
Views: 3995

Re: Forever Stamps as an Investment?

:oops:

Postal mail has been on a steady decline since 2000-2001. Social media and/or email.

Good luck
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 200
Views: 67430

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

I do recognize that its historical record includes a 30-year bond bull market, which can't happen again. Says who? :confused Bonds yielded 18% in 1981. 30 years later they yielded in the area of 2%. Does anyone seriously think bond yields can go to -16%? I supposed it's possible. Marginally negativ...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 12145

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

The large number of people boasting about owning no international stocks, combined with the irrational and convoluted reasons offered in support of such a xenophobic allocation, prompted me to nearly double my personal international allocation from roughly 20% to 40%. So these threads were actionab...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 12145

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

+1 Can't bring myself to invest in something that has had such poor performance over the long run. There's no credible doom-and-gloom scenario for the US in my lifetime, and definitely not one where the US market collapses, while foreign ones don't. Recency bias much? I think this type of perspecti...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 200
Views: 67430

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

KJVanguard wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:20 pm
I do recognize that its historical record includes a 30-year bond bull market, which can't happen again.
Says who?

:confused
by ReformedSpender
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4666

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

It's all relative. Are US stocks "on sale" when P/E is still around 24 after this recent pullback yet International stocks sit at 13?

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Software glitch on my end! I stand corrected

(Delete)
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?
Replies: 45
Views: 5010

Re: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?

FAANG stocks lost $175.5 billion in market cap yesterday, their biggest dollar decline ever

Image
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Image
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 10232

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I've been dollar cost averaging extra money into VXUS since it dropped 10% in the second week of February. VXUS at $35/share would be the steal of a lifetime. I'd back up my own truck then steal everyone else's truck and back them up too if VXUS hit $35/share. I think it's a fine value at $50/share...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millennials & Money Data
Replies: 25
Views: 3321

Re: Millennials & Money Data

No one knows nothing

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I don't read panic. That will become evident when post asking whether one should sell inundate the forum. Folks are having casual conversation...

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1296
Views: 122241

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I think this post jinxed the overall markets. Ironically, we are just about back to the same level of the S&P as when this topic was started.

May one of the mods please kindly lock and close this topic so we can resume or northerly ride?

:D

(Kidding of course)
by ReformedSpender
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

hdas wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:46 pm
Great day to take the cane out in Small Caps.......testing 200dma. H
Agreed. Took the opportunity to add IJR to my portfolio

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 7426

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Did the experts also let you know, not only has the S&P 500 never dropped in the year after midterm elections since the 1946 cycle, but it has climbed 15% on average regardless of which political party won or lost control of Congress? https://www.wsj.com/articles/midterms-are-a-boon-for-stocksno-mat...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Bogleheads Conference Notes
Replies: 36
Views: 5956

Re: 2018 Bogleheads Conference Notes

Thank you for sharing!

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think there are things going on under the radar. On October 4, 2018, an "up" day for the markets, my portfolio went down. Have noticed the last few days that despite a "record" new highs for the market averages that my portfolio value kept ticking down. This hints that relatively few stocks are d...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939516

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

We are closing in on an interesting (temporary) crossroad for the markets imo
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. bonds in freefall
Replies: 44
Views: 8189

Re: U.S. bonds in freefall

10 yr bond up nearly 4% today

:shock:
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Caps The Last Few Days
Replies: 3
Views: 599

Re: Small Caps The Last Few Days

Imo, with the recent trade deal inked with Canada, money that was previously flowing into (overperforming) small caps is now rotating back into (underperforming) big cap multinationals. Hence, the DOW has been soaring the last few days.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart.
Replies: 52
Views: 6961

Re: [WSJ] The ‘Dumb’ Money Is Bailing on U.S. Stocks. That’s Smart.

So, the MSCI World ex US index goes back to 12/31/1969. Starting from January, 1970 and using monthly returns for MSCI World ex US and US large cap stocks, there have been a total of 466 rolling 10-year periods up until the end of September, 2018. Out of those 466 rolling 10-year periods, internati...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 111731

Re: Jack Bogle was right

Taylor, That is not my interpretation of the chart at all. The chart shows there are three periods of time when US and International performance diverged. During the first period US had double the performance of international. During the second period International had double the performance of US....
by ReformedSpender
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 59
Views: 9429

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/150-portfolios-better-than-yours/ Here is mine: 20% Fidelity Contrafund (active US large cap) 25% PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (active US mid cap) 25% IJR (passive US small cap) 20% ISCF (ex-US developed markets small cap) 10% EMGF (emerging markets) When I g...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P sectors are changing
Replies: 8
Views: 753

Re: S&P sectors are changing

S&P 500 sectors are changing on Monday to reduce weight age of tech https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/09/21/on-monday-google-facebook-and-netflix-will-make-a-big-market-move.html "Investors who use passive index funds and ETFs are the most exposed to the big tech-stock and sector moves." huh :confused
by ReformedSpender
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3597

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

Allocation AND selection of underlying funds has been the key to the STAR success

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 12376

Re: Call the Top!

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:14 am

Those choices are somewhat irrational. Let's go with a more reasonable 3041.59.
With today's price action, 3041.59 is just a sneeze (~4%) away!

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are there so few long-term investors?
Replies: 18
Views: 3026

Re: Why are there so few long-term investors?

Why? Not many want to get rich slowly

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market
Replies: 25
Views: 2112

Re: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market

Regarding your examples, I know from experience that gas stations have minimal profit margins. Not much investment to be made on the small mark up on gas/diesel and snacks. Car washes are no better. Equipment breakdowns, inclement weather and liability insurance chew away at profits quick.

:beer