Search found 1311 matches

by ohai
Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 102
Views: 13287

Re: "Eight centuries of global real interest rates"

All the effects make sense: 1) People getting older and retirement focused 2) More information, less averse selection of borrowers 3) Democratization of lenders - many banks now, not one Iron Bank that monopolizes lending The secondary effect is compression of term premium for yield. Who said upward...
by ohai
Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much should I save for my first house?
Replies: 20
Views: 1348

Re: How much should I save for my first house?

I think you should put the money in the optimal asset allocation for your age. In my opinion, the right time to buy a house is contingent on your financial situation, not the other way around.
by ohai
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on how to go about quitting job?
Replies: 28
Views: 2767

Re: Thoughts on how to go about quitting job?

If it were me, I would at least come in for those 2 weeks of notice, so you don't throw someone else under the bus. However, if you never plan to see these people again, maybe you don't care. It's up to you.
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good site for crowd-solving mysteries
Replies: 13
Views: 1136

Re: Good site for crowd-solving mysteries

The best place is Reddit for sure, although you'd probably want to start with somewhat fewer than 200 photos to make it manageable in any way.
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying for vices (like cigarettes)
Replies: 72
Views: 6593

Re: Paying for vices (like cigarettes)

The only negative thing I can think of is that if an actual cigarette related fraud is committed with your credit card in the future, the credit card company's AI will be less likely to flag it.
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off major debt?? Or do something else??
Replies: 12
Views: 1542

Re: Pay off major debt?? Or do something else??

Not only would I not pay off the 1.18% loan, but I'd ask if I could go interest only or borrow more.
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quantifying the value of employment near retirement
Replies: 64
Views: 3314

Re: Quantifying the value of employment near retirement

Hi. I would not count so much on decreased costs, since you'll probably spend money entertaining yourself, especially if you retire early. Also, I would try to quantify the "option of continuing" to work. What if you retire and suddenly, you have a large unexpected cost or your portfolio declines? C...
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My porfolio - seeking advice [Hong Kong]
Replies: 17
Views: 1716

Re: My porfolio - seeking advice [Hong Kong]

I would not want anywhere near 50% of my equity holdings in stocks of Hong Kong, a tiny country (?) of less than 8 million people, and one that is constantly vulnerable to political risk. I also would not count on even the most basic assumptions about Hong Kong's economy holding for the next 10 year...
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money can retirees really save by moving to a state without income tax?
Replies: 143
Views: 12127

Re: How much money can retirees really save by moving to a state without income tax?

We changed our domicile from Illinois to Florida. Instantly, the income tax we paid went away. Property tax for the Florida place is actually $5,000 lower than the Illinois place, but the value of the Florida place is double the Illinois place (and FL value increasing, IL declining). The sales tax ...
by ohai
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 200x return in 1 month
Replies: 14
Views: 2340

Re: 200x return in 1 month

I heard the real money nowadays is in Air Jordans and "Yeezies".
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 191
Views: 21572

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Saying "my house tripled in a decade" is akin to saying Amazon price went 10x over the same time. That performance does not reflect the average house, nor should it be expected to continue for the future.
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Sapphire checking 1000$ offer
Replies: 170
Views: 25590

Re: Chase $1,000 Bonus for Opening a Checking Account

Wait, so do you go around just opening checking accounts for $500 to $1000 bonuses? It seems like the hassle of having many accounts would eventually outweight these rewards.
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jobs that allow total solitude and are night jobs
Replies: 60
Views: 4593

Re: Jobs that allow total solitude and are night jobs

Ambulance driver (sit around most of the time). Although you'd probably get "too much interaction" when you do have something to do.
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Follow Up: Husband's Surprise Debts
Replies: 371
Views: 39380

Re: Follow Up: Husband's Surprise Debts

I'd also think about cutting the $2400 cable bill. I don't know about what this costs where you live but, my internet is $600 a year, and you don't need to watch Game of Thrones when your budget is 1/3 unpaid taxes. Perhaps you do not need to pay $4k for life insurance. If one of you passes away, I ...
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 191
Views: 21572

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Houses have tended to appreciate in value at about the inflation rate. Investment portfolios have tended to appreciate at well above the inflation rate. Obviously, both have had long periods of better or worse performance... As true as this might be, if I buy a house with 20% down, both my 20% and ...
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to best sell a home?
Replies: 30
Views: 2183

Re: How to best sell a home?

You'll find different opinions on this, but my personal strongly held belief is that it is much, much easier to sell a home that's occupied versus one that's empty. You should obviously deep clean and de-clutter a lot, but having furniture and such in a house is a huge advantage IMO. It depends on ...
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Republic of Georgia] 9M never invested
Replies: 12
Views: 2882

Re: [Republic of Georgia] 9M never invested

I find it interesting that if OP has "9 million" he will be over 2% alone of the country's largest brokerage.
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Free trading, but often a catch: NYT
Replies: 25
Views: 3142

Re: Free trading, but often a catch: NYT

While it is good to be aware of what your brokerage is doing, the article seems to say that brokerages set up these arrangements to make up for lower commissions. In fact, they would be doing this even with high commissions. So, the low commissions themselves are just good for you.
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curve improving?
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: Yield curve improving?

It looks it's become about flat for the next 5 years and then increasing https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019 Does this mean the market is betting for low returns during just the next 5 years (and perhaps a mild reces...
by ohai
Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unauthorized Trade
Replies: 54
Views: 5047

Re: Unauthorized Trade

I really doubt that someone hacked into Vanguard and made an $8k trade in this account. The fact that the account has multiple users should point to the likely explanation. I assume this is a mutual fund account, from the prior comments. In that case, selling funds will deposit cash into someone's b...
by ohai
Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Digging my parents out of debt
Replies: 28
Views: 3150

Re: Digging my parents out of debt

I think it is a bit premature to count on dad passing away... he might live for another decade despite declining mental ability. What is the long term plan for your dad's care anyway? Is he going to need assisted living, or will he need someone to live with him? At some point, you or someone else wi...
by ohai
Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SPY vs. VOO
Replies: 12
Views: 939

Re: SPY vs. VOO

Well there was that one guy here who wanted to trade at 7PM or something, in which case, SPY would be the way to go...
by ohai
Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 191
Views: 21572

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

Weird. I think "my home" is a very much intangible benefit.
by ohai
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who makes good leather and down jacket
Replies: 36
Views: 2717

Re: Who makes good leather and down jacket

Leather jacket: Have had good experience with Belfast, Coach, Cole Haan. Have had less good experience with "outdoor brands" like Orvis and so on. It's a matter of style. Companies that make actual practical outdoor gear sometimes don't make stylish clothing well. Leather jacket is all about looks; ...
by ohai
Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Christmas Vacation Idea with 2 yo Toddler?
Replies: 38
Views: 2375

Re: Christmas Vacation Idea with 2 yo Toddler?

Go somewhere on a train. Kids love spending hours running around the train for some reason.
by ohai
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Change Advice
Replies: 23
Views: 1212

Re: Portfolio Change Advice

"Also, Ohai, you wouldn't advise trading FSKAX in taxable at all and just leave it ?"

It seems pretty normal. Do you have any concerns about this fund? Maybe you'd save 0.05% or something similar through a cheaper fund, but that's not enough to change your investment decision, if you ask me.
by ohai
Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Change Advice
Replies: 23
Views: 1212

Re: Portfolio Change Advice

Agree on moving some money to longer duration bonds (i.e. not money market) to get a bit more yield. Even BND or AGG are fine. Are you including houses in your asset allocation? Let's say your first house is worth $750k. Then, your current asset allocation is something like 45% House1, 35% cash, 20%...
by ohai
Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a photo printer
Replies: 14
Views: 519

Re: Recommend a photo printer

Also, inkjets kind of force you to use them, as the ink heads dry and they clean themselves by wiping off more ink.
by ohai
Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Understand Bond ETF Long Term Returns
Replies: 3
Views: 280

Re: How to Understand Bond ETF Long Term Returns

1) This would generally be true only for some cases: a) short term bonds - imagine for instance, all your bonds have 1 day duration; your total return would naturally be the average yield over the investment period. b) no rolling; if you buy only one 30y bond, you will realize only its yield over 30...
by ohai
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to define enough?
Replies: 73
Views: 10682

Re: How to define enough?

Hi, op and guys. It seems to me that “enough” is a function of your life state more than your actual financial wealth. 30 year olds who earn $20 million are more likely to work than 60 year olds. The younger people will try to earn more because they have a long life ahead and there’s not much else t...
by ohai
Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3208
Views: 552820

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

yogesh wrote: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:27 am
ohai wrote: Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:33 am Up 41% YTD! Although this was after down 12% in 2018...
What’s in your Portfolio?
In order of dollar size:
1) Normal US equity large cap
2) Leveraged equity I.e. UPrO (I did this before hedgefundie!!)
3) Muni funds (great year)
4) small cap (losers)
by ohai
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My situation and a new vehicle
Replies: 31
Views: 3464

Re: My situation and a new vehicle

A new Subaru Forester limited will cost you ~$35k with taxes. If you are in a situation where $2k or $3k is a big decision, should you really be shopping for a car in this price range?
by ohai
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3208
Views: 552820

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 41% YTD! Although this was after down 12% in 2018...
by ohai
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest cash in conservative manner until next recession
Replies: 119
Views: 10837

Re: Invest cash in conservative manner until next recession

Ok, assuming it is worth it to keep your capital out of the market and wait, how would you identify a good buying opportunity? There was a great one at the end of last year, for instance.
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help deciding what I want: stay put? new job/location? house on the line
Replies: 10
Views: 825

Re: Need help deciding what I want: stay put? new job/location? house on the line

The fact that you struggle to justify buying something that costs presumably hundreds of thousands of dollars seems to say you shouldn't buy it.
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help deciding what I want: stay put? new job/location? house on the line
Replies: 10
Views: 825

Re: Need help deciding what I want: stay put? new job/location? house on the line

It's not clear to me why you are buying this house. It seems that you are not geographically stable, won't make money on it as a rental property, are not comfortable with the financial commitment, and have other debts you want to pay. Sure, you will have a house that lowers your living cost once you...
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unauthorized Trade
Replies: 54
Views: 5047

Re: Unauthorized Trade

Your son's account? Could your son have done something?
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't we look at economic statistics?
Replies: 44
Views: 2790

Re: Why don't we look at economic statistics?

Actually, OP. I agree. The end is imminent. If I were you, I'd liquidate all my investments now, buy a generator and live in woods using nature's bounty to sustain me. Over time, along with my chosen followers, I will restart civilization anew.
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yet Another Retiring to Florida Thread - Pros/Cons
Replies: 91
Views: 10501

Re: Yet Another Retiring to Florida Thread - Pros/Cons

It kind of bugs me how Florida people put a pool in their house, and then put a greenhouse on top of it, effectively turning it into an indoor pool. I mean, I know there are alligators and stuff, but come on.
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wait and watch or Not?
Replies: 21
Views: 1932

Re: Wait and watch or Not?

I just received a paycheck and immediately invested it in SPX. So, that is my answer, for what it is worth.
by ohai
Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move existing mutual funds into existing taxable brokerage account
Replies: 18
Views: 698

Re: Move existing mutual funds into existing taxable brokerage account

Maybe they claim it is a wash sale, due to the funds being substantially the same.
by ohai
Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Follow Up: Husband's Surprise Debts
Replies: 371
Views: 39380

Re: Follow Up: Husband's Surprise Debts

Given that you live in Denver and very likely in Douglas County (would completely explain the water bill) I'm going to go a little counter to the masses. While you definitely don't need a 3000 sq ft home with the kids grown, the probability you are able to find anything cheaper and smaller to buy i...
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you folks attribute your change in Net Worth?
Replies: 9
Views: 2075

Re: How do you folks attribute your change in Net Worth?

Actually, it's not a useless question, because obviously, you should be interested in your dollar savings rate per year. This seems pretty easy to retrieve though, since you can usually download contribution activity from any brokerage. Even if you have various fund accounts, I don't see why you sho...
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: So I had my free phone call from Personal Capital . . .
Replies: 43
Views: 6184

Re: So I had my free phone call from Personal Capital . . .

Wow, so they have changed their advice to make it more "differentiated" from passive investing. A year ago, they were pushing 10-sector equal weights through index funds. I guess they had to obfuscate it a bit more to make it harder for you to replicate their strategy yourself.
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Airlines for 2020
Replies: 26
Views: 2260

Re: Top Airlines for 2020

The question is why US airlines so far behind? Do they care more about shareholders than customers? Any thoughts? Among other things (speculation, but also based on my experience): 1) A lot of countries directly or indirectly subsidize their air carriers because it's national publicity or something...
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Lane keep assist
Replies: 94
Views: 6217

Re: Honda Lane keep assist

I think Honda's system is fine and helpful. It is just a tool that enhances your senses, nor replaces them.

Some other systems (i.e. Subaru) are over sensitive and I find that the sudden false signals startle me and might cause an accident rather than increase safety.
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Airlines for 2020
Replies: 26
Views: 2260

Re: Top Airlines for 2020

I find that the specific route of airlines matters a lot, possibly more than the airline choice. For instance: NY to San Francisco Jetblue could be the nicest domestic flight I've been on. However, Jetblue's lower traffic flights with older airplanes are subpar in comparison. Actually, one thing tha...
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Please suggest a car for a senior
Replies: 28
Views: 1507

Re: Please suggest a car for a senior

Just spend some money and get your geriatric mom a non-$5k car with actual modern safety and amenities.
by ohai
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DSLRs: canon 5d IV vs ?
Replies: 92
Views: 4726

Re: DSLRs: canon 5d IV vs ?

Hi, OP. You'd probably get more useful feedback from a camera specific website. However, since you asked, yes I do think it is worth upgrading from APS-C format to full frame. The results for full frame are significantly and noticeably better, especially indoors or in non-ideal lighting. 1) you have...
by ohai
Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strange email from Synchrony about Amazon Prime Store Card
Replies: 35
Views: 9645

Re: Strange email from Synchrony about Amazon Prime Store Card

If you have the Chase Amazon Prime card, I don't see why you would need the Synchrony card. Chase is significantly better than Synchrony in customer service and online experience, while the Amazon rewards are equivalent.