Search found 2766 matches

by rgs92
Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could the total bond market yield turn negative?
Replies: 1
Views: 587

Could the total bond market yield turn negative?

I notice that the German 8-year bond has a negative 6-basis-point yield now, and the Swiss 10-year yields negative 87 basis points. Could this happen here (a negative yield) to the total bond market index? Would you continue to hold the index in this case, or go to cash? Would you buy more each mont...
by rgs92
Mon Apr 13, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On a budget and Friday night
Replies: 68
Views: 8543

Re: On a budget and Friday night

Gill wrote:We stay home and post on Bogleheads.
Gill
LOL! I wish my wife would let me do that. Women love to go out. Costs a fortune over time.
by rgs92
Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying State taxes online
Replies: 11
Views: 1234

Re: Paying State taxes online

Why don't you just use turbotax for federal and state? It's the easiest thing to do. I've done this for many years.
by rgs92
Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragement?
Replies: 172
Views: 26616

Re: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragem

A while back, I asked here if retirement was realistic for my wife and me (in our late 50s) with $1.25 million saved + $100,000 a year in (current) fixed pensions + $3000/month social security in a few years and got mixed reactions, many saying I was not quite ready since I had a $3000/month mortgag...
by rgs92
Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawing from balanced funds when stocks are down
Replies: 30
Views: 3636

Re: Withdrawing from balanced funds when stocks are down

Firecalc I believe assumes that you make withdrawals from your portfolio each month in the same proportion as the current stock/bond ratio in the whole portfolio at the time of withdrawal.
So a regular drawdown from a balanced fund should be doing exactly the same thing.
by rgs92
Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Might Go $4,000 AAPL
Replies: 68
Views: 8337

Re: Might Go $4,000 AAPL

Someone here said recently that any investment that he buys is to hold for 10 years. That idea struck a chord with me. Look at it that way and do that with AAPl. It's a corollary to Mr. Bogle's "Don't peek" prime directive.
by rgs92
Sat Apr 04, 2015 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Strategy For A Market Crash
Replies: 55
Views: 13048

Re: My Strategy For A Market Crash

You mention a 25-to-30% drop in the market. In a 50/50 portfolio, that would be a 12.5-to-15% loss for a while. Why would that require any special strategy if you are following a conventional income-withdrawal pattern along the lines of a Firecalc plan? I'm sure Firecalc envisions this as a perfectl...
by rgs92
Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15, 20, or 30?
Replies: 26
Views: 4183

Re: 15, 20, or 30?

That 2 7/8 rate on the 15 would be pretty tempting to me. I would get that and even borrow more if you could handle the payments.
by rgs92
Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: want to leave verizon wireless need advice
Replies: 10
Views: 2188

Re: want to leave verizon wireless need advice

Before you leave VZ hop into one of their retail stores and ask them for a plan with a lower overall price. I had a $100 plan on my phone and they quickly offered me a new plan (with less data, which was fine for me) for $60.
by rgs92
Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My car is (supposedly) totaled. What to do?
Replies: 26
Views: 4374

Re: My car is (supposedly) totaled. What to do?

$3150 ?? That's a lot of money for that car. I would take the money and run.
(Zip car maybe for you? Just a thought if you have it where you are.)
I wish someone would give me that for my 2000 car (and more expensive) with less miles.
by rgs92
Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford a $500,000 house?
Replies: 43
Views: 27107

Re: Can I afford a $500,000 house?

Of course you can afford it (and probably more if you don't have a lavish lifestyle) imho. $400K 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage = $2,000/month + $1000 property taxes and insurance = $3,000/month from $15,000/month gross income? You are in like Flint. Just go buy it and make yourself happy. It's a total...
by rgs92
Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?
Replies: 70
Views: 7965

Re: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?

It just seems to me that you are always ultimately depending on the market going in the direction you predict no matter how complicated you dress it up with insanely complicated option strategies. There is just more or less leverage factored into the bet depending on the approach. And, anecdotally, ...
by rgs92
Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Debt in Retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 15990

Re: Mortgage Debt in Retirement?

I want to leave this world with a giant mortgage left behind...
by rgs92
Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 8705

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

Everyday I wake up and turn on CNBC, look at the S&P (in the vicinity of 2000 these days) and do the mental exercise of calculating what my portfolio would be worth if the S&P were, say, 1000 because of some catastrophic event (a nuclear event in the middle east, say, or whatever), and really imagin...
by rgs92
Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I accept this Job Offer ?
Replies: 24
Views: 4274

Re: Should I accept this Job Offer ?

Stay in your job unless you hate it or think it could disappear. It's better to gather some moss, and the pension is nice too, but the stability and security these days should be your main priority. Going to a new job is a minefield I have found, and you need to prove yourself and maybe you have for...
by rgs92
Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a tablet maybe
Replies: 26
Views: 3389

Re: Need a tablet maybe

I tried an android b/c it was cheaper but found it very awkward to surf or email or change apps or use youtube and I found an apple is much more user friendly and easily worth the extra cost. Although I am cheap, apple is worth it for a tablet. For my desktop, I actually prefer a windows box, so I'm...
by rgs92
Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Contrafund
Replies: 41
Views: 17547

Re: Fidelity Contrafund

If you compare Contrafund to QQQ (Nasdaq EFT) over 10 years, it seems that Contrafund has more volatility and a lower return. I have always thought of FCNTX (Contrafund) as a Nasdaq surrogate, so that's why I make this comparison.
by rgs92
Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoughts
Replies: 36
Views: 3889

Re: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoug

NOT borrowing gets you a guaranteed interest of 3-4% absolute return on a typical car loan I'm estimating, equivalent to 5-6% gross return, and that's impossible to get these days, so just buy it outright.
I was a math major (but just with a B average, as full disclosure).
by rgs92
Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?
Replies: 58
Views: 10743

Re: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?

US Bonds could drop to negative yields like they are in parts of Europe, so you might make a profit...
by rgs92
Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Diehards
Replies: 24
Views: 4977

Re: Any Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Diehards

I question the statement that John made above that most of us invest in taxable accounts. I felt that retirement account limits were high enough to suck up most peoples retirement savings. Just about all of my 7-figure money is sheltered, and I was just a normal corporate wage slave for my career.
by rgs92
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Diehards
Replies: 24
Views: 4977

Re: Any Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Diehards

The balanced index fund I assume is continuously rebalanced. I assume this is a plus, but there are always questions here about how often to balance, and many say once a year is best. I would probably prefer more frequent balancing, but that's just an emotional hunch. I always wonder why there is no...
by rgs92
Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop: Windows based vs. Apple
Replies: 87
Views: 17566

Re: Laptop: Windows based vs. Apple

Go to a site like notebookreview and check the forums or reviews and then buy one that you can customize yourself for your needs from a good builder like Sager or Asus or MSI from a good reputable online store like gentechpc or xoticpc . This is a way to get the most machine for your money, and also...
by rgs92
Mon Mar 16, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 67
Views: 14970

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

I think a fair test would be a Firecalc/Monte Carlo simulation where you tested rolling periods starting in many different years for permanent vs., say, Vanguard Balanced or a 50/50 stock/bond mix rebalanced annually or more frequently.
by rgs92
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargument?
Replies: 70
Views: 16275

Re: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargum

1. Cramer likes to say "you are paid to wait" if you choose a stock with good fundamentals with decent dividends. 2. I have often heard that a large portion of long term equity returns come from dividends (with reinvesting, maybe over 70%, but I forgot the mentioned percentages). 3. The "dogs of the...
by rgs92
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 34566

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

2% real returns sounds pretty good to me.
If inflation is very low, just spending the principal down slowly should last for many decades.
If inflation is higher, say, 4%, then a 6% nominal return should also serve me well.
So what's the big problem here?
by rgs92
Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bear Market strategies, if any
Replies: 61
Views: 10235

Re: Bear Market strategies, if any

If you have a 50/50 equity/fixed-income portfolio, the chances of being down more than 25% over your whole portfolio for more than a few months are close to zero (even if you look at 1974, 1987, 2003, or 2009). And if you are using a portfolio for income, and this is too much to bear, then you don't...
by rgs92
Fri Mar 06, 2015 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managed bond funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2699

Re: Managed bond funds?

As far as what index to follow, it seems that the Barclays US Bond Index seems to be the most commonly followed index--for instance the Fidelity Spartan US Bond Index fund I use (FSITX), and the AGG ETF. Vanguard measures against this index as a benchmark in its factsheet for the Total Bond Market I...
by rgs92
Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stable value funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1513

Re: Stable value funds

This isn't a question of what makes you feel good. Figure out how much inflation-adjusted income you need above your pension and social security using reasonable assumptions of inflation and rates of return based on history (using Firecalc and/or similar tools), and set up an asset allocation (using...
by rgs92
Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managed bond funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2699

Managed bond funds?

Clearly the evidence is strong that managed stock funds are not likely to outperform index funds over the long term, but is there similar evidence for managed bond funds (even those with cheap expenses)? Thanks. (I tried searching for this topic to avoid cluttering the forum, but could not find anyt...
by rgs92
Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good career for woman mid 30's?
Replies: 34
Views: 5800

Re: Good career for woman mid 30's?

Yep, think twice about giving up your current job's security, seniority, and benefits. As Meghan Trainor might say, It's all about the *pension* .
by rgs92
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension vs 401K
Replies: 8
Views: 1189

Re: Pension vs 401K

How about a non-COLA pension? Would the answers be the same? Thanks.
by rgs92
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Renting in retirement permanently. (Georgia?)
Replies: 9
Views: 1507

Renting in retirement permanently. (Georgia?)

Is there any finacial reason at age 60 not to rent for the rest of our lives? It looks like you can get a great house around Atlanta in a good area for $2,000 a month or less, and there is such a surplus of real estate there I don't see any big long term rise in rents. At my age, I don't see much re...
by rgs92
Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bought in, and then they start tumbling
Replies: 67
Views: 11165

Re: Bought in, and then they start tumbling

Whenever I feel that way I look at a 20 or 30 year chart of the S&P500 and realize that the "tanking" or "surging" in the last few days or months or even years is just a small blip in that is infinitesimal (almost invisible) in retrospect. Don't you wish you had invested lots of money in 1994 at any...
by rgs92
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: With this uncertainty, where to put $200k plus....
Replies: 26
Views: 3554

Re: With this uncertainty, where to put $200k plus....

This is classic. You say you want to park the money until "things settle down." People always say this, and, invariably, "things settling down" equates to "when the market is higher."
Then they feel comfortable and happily buy high.
by rgs92
Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts.
Replies: 13
Views: 1940

Re: My thoughts.

Good article-- thanks!
by rgs92
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing more when the market is down.
Replies: 22
Views: 3063

Re: Investing more when the market is down.

Whenever I tried this I caught the falling knife, so I learned to just stay the course.
by rgs92
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts.
Replies: 13
Views: 1940

My thoughts.

So oil prices are dropping due to an oil oversupply and the stock market is going down, seemingly because of this. But if oil prices were surging upwards due to a shortage, I bet the stock market would also be going down because of forecasts of the dire economic impact of this. So this is typical of...
by rgs92
Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

Thanks DR, I will look at ESPLanner. I'm in NJ. Any other comments from anyone are welcome. Thanks in advance.
by rgs92
Sat Dec 06, 2014 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

OK, this is just to really say thanks to everyone for taking the time for all this good advice. Best to all of you. 'back to lurking here for me.
by rgs92
Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

Just fyi to the questions here about possible panic selling and income status: My view of stocks is this in a nutshell: if I want to buy food 20 years from now, a $100 worth of food stocks will buy the same current $100 worth of food it does now. So the whole market represents everything I need to b...
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

Thanks again for that. I will see if I can find that data. We are toying with the idea of moving to the Atlanta suburbs where we know some people. An earlier poster says I should reduce my stock holdings. But this is a WWJD (what would Jack do?) question. Jack Bogle says to consider fixed income as ...
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

You people are crazy... If the OP can't retire, 99% of Americans can't retire... Pensions and SS will cover all their expenses... He may have to spend $100k-$200k to bridge the gap to Social Security (they should probably wait as long as they can). $1 million+ left over, untouched, to handle inflat...
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

ChrisJ, Thanks a million for this. It's a great tool I can work with now. Best to you. Again, thanks so much for the effort you put into this.
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

Hey, thank you Morik for all that food for thought and all that work you did! I need to digest it. Best to you!!
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

My own back-of-the-envelope calculation on my own situation is that, if we go for social security at 62, we will have about $3200 a month ($38,400/year) in real terms permanently. In 20 years, let's say my $100,000/year cut in half in purchasing power, so $50,000/year in real terms. That gives me $8...
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

Thanks for the suggestions. As far as paying off the 4% mortgage, if rates go up, my stable value funds will also yield more, and the principal will not go down, so I'm thinking I will keep the mortgage.
If this were a bond fund, it would be a different story.
by rgs92
Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

I have a 4%-fixed 30 year mortgage. Thanks. As for expenses, I find that most people underestimate their expenses and then get into trouble. You need to account for such things as house and car repairs and amortize them to get a realistic amount each month, or else you are deceiving yourself. So I l...
by rgs92
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 8853

Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

Due to layoffs, my wife(almost age 58) and I (age 60), are now retired, most probably permanently. My budget shows that we spend about $10,000/month (which includes a $3000/month mortgage payment with $2000 P+i, $1000 property tax + Insurance, only 4 years in to a 30 year mortgage, so basically fore...
by rgs92
Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enough to retire? (Mid 50s couple.)
Replies: 33
Views: 6043

Re: Enough to retire? (Mid 50s couple.)

Thanks a million everyone for all the help and insight. The house appraised at 540k , mortgage is 400k. The 9k monthly expenses does include some slack, as I did try to allow for unexpected expenses that commenters have noted. I am not into vacations or high living type things. Thus I feel the expen...
by rgs92
Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enough to retire? (Mid 50s couple.)
Replies: 33
Views: 6043

Re: Enough to retire? (Mid 50s couple.)

That tipster thing caused a security violation so I didn't install it.