Search found 2629 matches

by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

"At any price. There is no storage." "You can't, at any price. There are NO empty tankers, and full tankers don't help you." As AphaLess said, this is a storage issue. Likely likely driven by those shiploads in transit not having a place to unload. I imagine the demurrage cost per day for a tanker ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

"At any price. There is no storage." "You can't, at any price. There are NO empty tankers, and full tankers don't help you." As AphaLess said, this is a storage issue. Likely likely driven by those shiploads in transit not having a place to unload. I imagine the demurrage cost per day for a tanker ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

You are essentially faulting them for a lack of clairvoyance. Yes, COVID became known back in January, but at the time it was thought of as a Chinese problem. Anybody who really knew most of the world would be shut down in March could have made their fortunes shorting the stock market in late Febru...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

"At any price. There is no storage." "You can't, at any price. There are NO empty tankers, and full tankers don't help you." As AphaLess said, this is a storage issue. Likely likely driven by those shiploads in transit not having a place to unload. I imagine the demurrage cost per day for a tanker ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

My point is no producer will ever pay that much just to deliver their supply....a few $ negative could possibly make sense vs shutting down production. This defies common sense. This was a paper market blow up with the May contract. People getting burned are the traders who didn't want to ever actu...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

No it's not About to breach 50. And there is A LONG TIME to go still until the end of trading. Something has broken down in the paper market for sure... but that's totally disconnected from any real world common sense. This contract is dead in another day. June contract is still $20+ June contract ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?
Replies: 108
Views: 8601

Re: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?

I know this is good news for drivers, but there undoubtedly will be some disruptions in the economy. I suspect a lot of upstream oil producers -- companies involved in exploration and production -- will go bankrupt. Diamond Offshore Drilling is one example. This is a Houston-based company that empl...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?
Replies: 57
Views: 5818

Re: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?

How does one "buy into oil" at these prices? As of this post - a barrel of oil is around $1.65 a barrel. I'm willing to toss 5k into something but USO and UGA are the only 2 funds I know of that are supposed to have some form of "tracking" of the oil price but I've watched them for some time and th...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?
Replies: 57
Views: 5818

Re: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?

FYI - We have multiple other active posts on this topic as it seems like lots of people want to buy oil stocks now. Cheers Bing: oil strocks are twice / thrice removed from the oil price. So, yea, that is the sucker's play: paper money. Unless you are trading PHYSICAL oil, everything else is PAPER ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?
Replies: 57
Views: 5818

Re: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?

Patzer wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:00 pm You don't know what you are doing. You know nothing about trading oil. People that know how to trade oil are getting burned, but you think you are going to do better than them, based on what?
This by far is one of the smartest thing said on this thread, and any related threads.
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

Holy cow trading has absolutely gone off the rails. I'm now seeing -$37 barrel :shock: It is quite possible that the price could go to 50, 100, 500, 1000. No it's not About to breach 50. And there is A LONG TIME to go still until the end of trading. Something has broken down in the paper market for...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

While the numbers are historic and interesting, I would caution against reading anything into them. No one is paying anyone $40,000 to take 1,000 barrels of oil. These trades remind me of the May 2010 "Flash Crash", when many total market ETF's "traded" for pennies per share. Those trades were late...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

rascott wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:47 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:43 pm
alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:42 pm Holy cow trading has absolutely gone off the rails. I'm now seeing -$37 barrel :shock:
It is quite possible that the price could go to 50, 100, 500, 1000.
No it's not
About to breach 50. And there is A LONG TIME to go still until the end of trading.
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

What would actually happen if I buy 1 contract of oil? I will get 40$ and then what? From where will the oil be delivered? Do they deliver to private people? If you have to ask, I wouldn't recommend buying the contract :) +1. RayKeynes informed percentile: 99.5%, i.e.,99.5% of oil traders know more...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?
Replies: 57
Views: 5818

Re: How can I "buy into oil" at these prices?

How does one "buy into oil" at these prices? As of this post - a barrel of oil is around $1.65 a barrel. I'm willing to toss 5k into something but USO and UGA are the only 2 funds I know of that are supposed to have some form of "tracking" of the oil price but I've watched them for some time and th...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

alfaspider wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:42 pm Holy cow trading has absolutely gone off the rails. I'm now seeing -$37 barrel :shock:
It is quite possible that the price could go to 50, 100, 500, 1000.
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

So can someone smarter than me (that means any one of you) please explain what this oil price collapse will mean for markets and the general public. Thanks! :happy It is definitely a bearish sign. There is a MASSIVE reduction in demand. Pre-Jan-2020, the world was too overleveraged in overly increa...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-) Math for storage does not add up. If you sink a tanker into the ocean, you are SHORT a tanker. You need extra tanker. I can buy the tanker with the 40$ billion - no problemo. You can't, at any p...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

rascott wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:33 pm
GTBuzz wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:31 pm Shipping kills the deal.
Even at negative $40?
At any price. There is no storage.

The only viable place to store is the SPR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... ed_States)
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: [Oil futures prices plummets, Bogleheads react]

RayKeynes wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:36 pm Cant you just buy 1'000'000 contracts and get 40 million USD and let 1 oil tanker sink in the ocean? 8-)
Math for storage does not add up. If you sink a tanker into the ocean, you are SHORT a tanker.
You need extra tanker.
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8405

Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for 45k USD - anyone else?

livesoft wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 pm Looks like you paid too much.
I am buyer of 100MM barrels at -1,000 USD per barrel.
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Same calculation for Italy.

Peak daily new death date: March 27.

Cumulative total deaths through Mar 27: 9,134.
Cumulative total deaths through today: 24,114.

So, we are way past 2x cum total through peak day.

There is probably another 8-10K deaths to go, minimum.
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Just a quick reminder that modeling deaths using a sigmoid (aka the logistics function aka the cumulative of the normal distribution aka the s-curve) DOES NOT work. Take, Spain for example: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ Look at the daily new deaths graph. I would say, that...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6328

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

I imagine you can only negotiate if you have some type of leverage. If you don't have any leverage, how does one negotiate? EVEN IF you have leverage, it won't work in a lay-off situation to get a better severance. If you have leverage, it will likely result in you keeping the job. ... AND doing th...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6328

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

Good severance: 1 year of pay for every 2 years worked. Why would an employer pay that? I certainly wouldn't. Why would you want 1/3 of your pay at the end of your stint with the company anyway? As near as I can tell, most of a severance is just an employer that feels badly about having to let you ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Probably because most people are not personally affected so far. We haven’t even reached the number of deaths from an ordinary flu season. This is false. Ordinary flu season in the US is 24,000 - 60,000 deaths on an annual basis. We have 41,000 COVID-19 deaths in just a few months. Not even a few m...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:31 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

If nothing else, this whole thing will tell us a lot about which measures work and which don't. Over here (Sweden), there's no lockdown: Schools, gyms and restaurants are open, people are going about their business, and now that the weather is getting warmer, the parks are swarming with people. The...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I dunno why it seems impossible to deploy 10,000 people into hotspots to do contact tracing out of a population of 300M. We have a uniformed corps of medical personnel 6500 strong...not all HCW but a big percentage and you can’t pull out the ones already deployed. Also hundreds of thousands of cens...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Cardiologists are reporting about a 40% reduction in admissions for STEMI heart attacks since the start of the coronavirus epidemic. This is very peculiar and they aren't sure what is going on. STEMI heart attacks are the most severe and anyone having one would generally be in severe pain so it wou...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

knpstr wrote: Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:13 pm Dr. Birx said tonight at the press meeting that the mortality rate is 11.24 per 100,000 for covid-19
That is basically dividing 37K deaths so far by 330M (population of USA).

330M / 100K = 3,300
3,300 * 11.24 = 37K

It will be at 20+ in like a month and a half.
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frugal quarantine habits to keep
Replies: 87
Views: 8543

Re: Frugal quarantine habits to keep

Old Guy wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:46 am I’m 77. I have no intention of living my remaining years in a frugal manner.
Love it!
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 139490

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

My question was rather centered on food becoming more scarce in the coming months. I foresee further disruption in distribution channels, but nothing like food scarcity. I see disruption leads to scarcity for us. Don't mean to scare, just thinking loud. Our local news reported several stores have t...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6328

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

I can only think of 2 types of possible leverage, although I wouldn't use either..... 1) Don't be helpful in transitions your remaining tasks or training your replacement 2) Mention that you feel singled out because of your age. In my experience with megacorp HR, they were absolutely terrified by t...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6328

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

fizxman wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:57 pm I imagine you can only negotiate if you have some type of leverage. If you don't have any leverage, how does one negotiate?
EVEN IF you have leverage, it won't work in a lay-off situation to get a better severance.

If you have leverage, it will likely result in you keeping the job.
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6328

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

There's been an increasing number of laid off threads, and it will likely increase with time. I would like to start a discussion as to how to negotiate severance if laid off. I know there will be a lot of responses that say, "that's not going to work". I'm really not interested to hear that. As a p...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty
Replies: 17
Views: 2164

Re: JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty

wkimdds wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:09 am Not to be a doomsdayer but with jpm tightening money lending, i think they assume further downturn
Big time!
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7077

Re: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?

You are in Kentucky. Besides being more conservative, the comparison doesn't translate well to a HCOL area where the OP is. My profile says that I am in Kentucky. I have never stepped foot in Kentucky in my life. Not sure how I'm supposed to know that. In any case, either you are in a LCOL area and...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Liquid Hand Soap? seriously.
Replies: 76
Views: 4428

Re: How to get Liquid Hand Soap? seriously.

jcar wrote: Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:18 pm We bought two 84 oz bottles at Dollar Store. They seem to have plenty labe,ed anti bacterial and anti viral. Many years supply now.
How many years?
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Liquid Hand Soap? seriously.
Replies: 76
Views: 4428

Re: How to get Liquid Hand Soap? seriously.

yosemite_mountain wrote: Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:28 pm How do I get Liquid Hand Soap online? Its sold out everywhere...
Area?
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty
Replies: 17
Views: 2164

Re: JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty

With a recession looming, the country's largest bank has put a pause on new home equity lines of credit for the foreseeable future. What is consequences for this? Maybe another sign for crash? Not surprizing. Their corporate clients are drawing down funds. The risk of defaults is moving from corpor...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 32502

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

Actionable items: - save more, - spend less, - work longer. Die younger? I was always curios about life exp in these models... No one from my relatives lived longer than 80, planning to retire at 55 because of that Well, what you state is not actionable. It could be expected, but not actionable. No...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7077

Re: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?

You are in Kentucky. Besides being more conservative, the comparison doesn't translate well to a HCOL area where the OP is. My profile says that I am in Kentucky. I have never stepped foot in Kentucky in my life. Not sure how I'm supposed to know that. In any case, either you are in a LCOL area and...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7077

Re: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?

I would encourage you to consider 3 factors: 1. How secure are your jobs, not just now, but in case of a deep depression, 2. What are the chances that you can purchase that house for an X% further discount, Y months from now, 3. How convenient it is to make the transaction now, vs later. Housing wi...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 57753

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

BlueFin wrote: Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:51 am Now that the hoarders have filled all available space in their homes with toilet paper our grocery store had a full supply yesterday of all kinds available.
Aye. Aye.
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 57753

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

I would chime in again in this thread. We have some older neighbors, who are much older than us, and probably much more high risk. So they don't go to stores at all. They order online, or other type of delivery. They have difficulty finding CERTAIN things online. Recently, I have been able to find n...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7077

Re: $1M home purchase - can we afford it?

I would encourage you to consider 3 factors: 1. How secure are your jobs, not just now, but in case of a deep depression, 2. What are the chances that you can purchase that house for an X% further discount, Y months from now, 3. How convenient it is to make the transaction now, vs later. Housing wil...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

For a good educational web-cartoon about pandemic modeling, you might want to check out this link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/ Even I understood it! I found it extremely hard to follow, and stay focused. I would much rather read pa...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77648

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

..If we have the same system as other countries that can do contact tracing and quarantine all infected persons plus close contacts as it shows up, we do not need that many tests. Anything short of that, the only other choice is to test everyone. So, which answer do you prefer? A) Fewer tests but h...