Search found 2629 matches

by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The fundamental assumption here is if we fix the Coronavirus problem, we will fix the economic problem. I do not share that assumption. KlangFool What is your proposal? AlphaLess, The bubble has to burst and it is bursting. There is nothing that we or the world can do to stop it. This is independen...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Breaking! State of Georgia is opening the state on Friday. Without getting into the reasons of opening vs not, I think this is a positive development from real-world experimentation point of view. We should be able to get some good data in terms of what happens when social distancing restrictions ar...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

KlangFool wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:12 pm The fundamental assumption here is if we fix the Coronavirus problem, we will fix the economic problem. I do not share that assumption.

KlangFool
What is your proposal?
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Another COVID projection model. I tend to like this one a lot more. #1. It is non-parametric, i.e., does not make any assumptions about the type of curve, #2. Does not make assumptions about R0. Rather, infers R0, #3. Models hidden variables such as true number infected, #4. Updates in real-time. ht...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Antibody tests by a private company have started being offered in my area. My SO got a test today - will have the results in a few days. If the test is positive, I'll get one, too. Still, I'm not sure what the information will 'do' in a practical sense. Probably need to research that more - for ins...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Exit Interview
Replies: 78
Views: 6006

Re: Exit Interview

Resentfulness is hard to quantify, and benefit from.

If you can re-cast the problem so that there is something in it for you, then that is different.
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients
Replies: 20
Views: 1885

Re: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients

LifeExplorer wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:50 pm “To include various WTI contracts instead of just the front month.”

Does this change anything?

I bought into USO when I had no idea what it was.
What a shame.
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody here pay less than $40 a month for home internet and with what company?
Replies: 62
Views: 4515

Re: Anybody here pay less than $40 a month for home internet and with what company?

We have a condo-provided internet, and the cost is imputed, i.e., residents don't have a choice. I think it is $15/M or something. Downside is: we have a shared line. Upside is: individual connections are throttled at 100Mbps. I randomly do speed test, and I have never seen it below 50s. I think the...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"
Replies: 51
Views: 4275

Re: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"

When they are ROLLING, they are not buying oil. They are simply buying one contract, and selling another. But because they are selling the FRONT, and buying 2nd or 3rd, that impact will definitely cause the front one to go down. Seems like a pretty badly constructed ETF. Worse, everyone knows they ...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"
Replies: 51
Views: 4275

Re: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"

Not sure if it was in the OP's article, but had read that USO owns 30% of the next month futures and had record inflows just before that price went negative, in checking I see report of $1.6 billion in the week before negative oil price hit. I'm sure most assumed they were essentially buying oil an...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?
Replies: 65
Views: 5047

Re: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?

Probably not. You need to estimate your MAX heart rate: 220 - age, roughly. Then, you need to spend at least 15-20 minutes per day in the 80-90% of that zone. E.g., if you are 30, Max heart rate is 190. 80% of 190 is 152. 90% of 190 is 171. Need to spend some time near 171. Get a fitbit. Not sure I...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"
Replies: 51
Views: 4275

Re: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"

Not sure if it was in the OP's article, but had read that USO owns 30% of the next month futures and had record inflows just before that price went negative, in checking I see report of $1.6 billion in the week before negative oil price hit. I'm sure most assumed they were essentially buying oil an...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"
Replies: 51
Views: 4275

Re: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"

The article says: “To buy USO you have to understand the oil futures market,” Davi told CNBC. “They [retail investors] just buy the ETF because they think the price of crude will go up, but they don’t understand the drivers, which are fairly complicated.” How can you blame retail investors for thin...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"
Replies: 51
Views: 4275

Re: "Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil"

Good CNBC article: Retail investors who believed they were investing in crude oil get a rude awakening. It would have been much better if something like this had been published a long time ago--and if products like USO were required to include warnings at least as strong as those seen on the home p...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?
Replies: 65
Views: 5047

Re: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?

Probably not. You need to estimate your MAX heart rate: 220 - age, roughly. Then, you need to spend at least 15-20 minutes per day in the 80-90% of that zone. E.g., if you are 30, Max heart rate is 190. 80% of 190 is 152. 90% of 190 is 171. Need to spend some time near 171. Get a fitbit. Not sure I...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Oximeter should be an essential tool in every household, along with these: - thermometer (preferably, ONE per household member, so that in case each get sick, you don't re-use; plus an extra), - blood pressure monitor, - oximeter, - glucose monitor, - a fairly robust medicine cabinet, - UVC sanitiz...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any One-More-Year FIRE people sticking to their plan?
Replies: 72
Views: 8785

Re: Any One-More-Year FIRE people sticking to their plan?

BW1985 wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:18 pm 800k W2, are you in tech? Or an executive?
maybe finance.
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9484

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

I've seen some businesses with under 25 employees that were remarkably profitable, but it's certainly true that most of them don't have a meaningfully positive financial impact on those who run/own them. Agreed. And all those people who are independent contractors who think they are businesses. Tha...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?
Replies: 65
Views: 5047

Re: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?

Probably not.

You need to estimate your MAX heart rate: 220 - age, roughly.

Then, you need to spend at least 15-20 minutes per day in the 80-90% of that zone.

E.g., if you are 30, Max heart rate is 190.
80% of 190 is 152.
90% of 190 is 171.

Need to spend some time near 171.

Get a fitbit.
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6337

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

Why would an employer pay that? I certainly wouldn't. Why would you want 1/3 of your pay at the end of your stint with the company anyway? As near as I can tell, most of a severance is just an employer that feels badly about having to let you go. Then there is a small part for business purposes--mi...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

About a 6 weeks ago, I purchased two Pulse Oximeters from Target. I think these are incredibly useful. In my household, we measure our oxygen level a few times a day. Here is an article emphasizing the importance of doing so: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia....
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9484

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

You know the right answer here. Your parents need to sell the house and take what they get, wind down the hobby of a business and rent a 1 bedroom apartment. All these shell games of they sell to you and they live there and you collect no rent is going to bite you and bite you hard. solid advice. m...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 4023

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

Part of the reason it’s low is because there’s no way to profit from it (since everyone knows it’ll be higher in the future, it would have been bid up if there was a way to do it). Unless you own an oil storage tank or some other place to take physical delivery and store it. I was literally just la...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 4023

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

jebmke wrote, They always lose me at “we all know” Yes. And phrases like that usually precede a conviction posed as a question. The question here is, “ My questions therefore is, what is the best way to profit from my above assumption? What financial instrument exist that I could buy?” But it reall...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 4023

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

Dear all, As of this morning, Crude Oil future for May 2020 trades @ 14.80$, at a 21-year low. We all know that this low price is "temporary" in the sense that oil producers worldwide cannot survive prices below 35$ in the long-run. At 35$, they'd be able to break even and report profits. As a resu...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6337

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

He asked about negotiating a good severance, I gave him my threshold for good. Nothing wrong with having an opinion, no? I agree it's good. Unbelievably good IMHO. A professor of negotiations once told me that you need to always shoot for the moon. Otherwise, you are wasting time. may be a small ca...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

About a 6 weeks ago, I purchased two Pulse Oximeters from Target. I think these are incredibly useful. In my household, we measure our oxygen level a few times a day. Here is an article emphasizing the importance of doing so: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.h...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I Royally [mess up] spending $450 on USO today? Bought at $3.84 a piece
Replies: 38
Views: 5107

Re: Did I Royally [mess up] spending $450 on USO today? Bought at $3.84 a piece

FYI: many of the oil related ETFs will have the XIV fate from Feb 2018.

Proceed like you are stepping on a mine field.

E.g., this obscure ETN called 'OIL' is basically going to be terminated on Friday.
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9484

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

I wrote about my parents' financial issues before, their small business is in absolutely dire straits now. Their primary (and only) asset is their primary residence. Comparable sales were about $550k prior to the pandemic. They owe about $180k. My parents made me the following proposition. I pay of...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Predicts
Replies: 28
Views: 3679

Re: Ray Dalio Predicts

Ray Dalio mentioned that we could see a second Great Depression because of the similarities we had from 1930-1945 such as high level debt 107% of GDP, low interest rates, and QE (printing of monies). How much stock do you put into this? Does this mean that if someone began investing today would see...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6337

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

Why would an employer pay that? I certainly wouldn't. Why would you want 1/3 of your pay at the end of your stint with the company anyway? As near as I can tell, most of a severance is just an employer that feels badly about having to let you go. Then there is a small part for business purposes--mi...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm out [of the market]
Replies: 109
Views: 12155

Re: I'm out [of the market]

So Friday I decided to pull the plug and sold all stock and bound funds and put it in prime money mkt. Of course my Vanguard advisor discouraged me from taking this action. I had been invested in approx. 33% cash, 33% bonds, and 33%funds. Down approx 6% this year. The way I look at it is my wife an...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free - anyone else?

whodidntante wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:20 am
AlphaLess wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:04 pm I think civilization may end in that timeframe.
You mean it gets worse than record unemployment and no poker games? :shock:
Well, if one half of the population manages to eliminate the other half via wars, famine, etc.
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to negotiate severance if laid off?
Replies: 75
Views: 6337

Re: How to negotiate severance if laid off?

Good severance: 1 year of pay for every 2 years worked. Why would an employer pay that? I certainly wouldn't. Why would you want 1/3 of your pay at the end of your stint with the company anyway? As near as I can tell, most of a severance is just an employer that feels badly about having to let you ...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 139556

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Sorry to hear that. What is the area, may I ask? Here on MD/DC border. Our usual hangouts are Safeway or Giant. Safeway's produce shelves were totally empty except maybe onions and potatoes. Giant is slightly better, meaning only half empty. We are on plant based diet so this really hit us hard. Tr...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I read hits exactly a month ago.

It is quite amazing how insightful and prescient this article was. Recommend everyone to read it as well.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I trust the people I know who have experience and expertise. Have you every asked another pathologist for a second opinion? How do you pick one? Are there authorities in your field whose experience you trust? Maybe you trained with them? Maybe you have read their work before and realize that they h...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77738

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Note that in the below a daily R0 factor is calculated for cumulative US deaths. It initially appeared somewhat linear, but, as expected, the linear fit was going to start to fail as R0 approached zero. So, I've implemented an exponential model and fit it to the data from April 1-19 using the sourc...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free - anyone else?

Wonder if I can store these oil in my swimming pool? maybe use the community pool as well. :twisted: Can you just imagine the Nextdoor posts? That will be the HOA thread to end all HOA threads. :happy Why think small, and store in the pool? How about emptying the Great Lakes and storing crude there...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4981

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

Here is some more information about RenTech.

https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved-M ... 73521798X/

Caution: a lot of the reviews say, "Will only recommend to trading professionals."
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4981

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

Their Medallion fund ("only open to employees, former employees and a handful of people close to the firm") is doing well: Renaissance's $10 Billion Medallion Fund Gains 24% Year to Date in Tumultuous Market https://www.wsj.com/articles/renaissance-s-10-billion-medallion-fund-gains-24-year-to-datei...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: Just ordered 10'000 barrels of oil for free - anyone else?

Wonder if I can store these oil in my swimming pool? maybe use the community pool as well. :twisted: Can you just imagine the Nextdoor posts? That will be the HOA thread to end all HOA threads. :happy Why think small, and store in the pool? How about emptying the Great Lakes and storing crude there?
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

Maybe this cheap oil will make airplane gas and cruise ship oil cheap enough that the companies can still make money with half passenger loads.. Remember fuel is a big part of their costs. So tickets to go places this fall may be really cheap..... If you are willing to take the risk.... Ah, with 'h...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

I think contract trading ends today at 5 pm. Tomorrow is the settlement. The *REALLY* interesting thing is if the same thing will happen to the June contract. In which case, it is a GREAT trade. June contract is in the $20.s. If it goes into negative 40s, that is a great return. I've been watching ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

I think contract trading ends today at 5 pm. Tomorrow is the settlement. The *REALLY* interesting thing is if the same thing will happen to the June contract. In which case, it is a GREAT trade. June contract is in the $20.s. If it goes into negative 40s, that is a great return. I've been watching ...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

Hope our government is smart enough to buy these future as much as possible, and stored them at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in underground salt caverns. You can't store the futures in the SPT. You need to: - think and plan ahead, - have transport and other infrastructure, - buy the future...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

They said on CNBC that the May contract has one more day to trade. Will be interesting to see what happens to it tomorrow. I think contract trading ends today at 5 pm. Tomorrow is the settlement. The *REALLY* interesting thing is if the same thing will happen to the June contract. In which case, it...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8411

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

It will be interesting to see the international impacts of super-low oil prices in the years ahead. The largest producers today: • United States................12,108,000 BPD • Russia..........................10,835,000 BPD • Saudi Arabia...................9,580,000 BPD • Iraq.........................