Search found 2629 matches

by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC system, pension or traditional 401k?
Replies: 30
Views: 2114

Re: UC system, pension or traditional 401k?

401k route. The pension has changed twice in the last 7 years. It is underfunded, and mismanaged. Page 20 of pension handbook. You can find the .pdf just by googling UCRP. It does not require log in. "Although the Plan is expected to continue indefinitely, the Regents reserve the right to amend or ...
by AlphaLess
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?
Replies: 59
Views: 4953

Re: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?

Bernie Madoff's clients had a pretty consistent "return" of 10% year over year. I'm sure that he got lots of clients by referrals. If it sounds to good to be true ... For example, a top pick of these guys is the ticker EPR (EPR Properties) which has a dividend yield of 17.65% for the last 9 years a...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6317

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

Anecdotal, but I’ve heard that many employers have been surprised at how well wfh is working. These are obviously not public facing jobs. Many jobs involved meetings with geographically dispersed colleagues anyway, so now rather than physical meeting with 5 in the room and 5 remote, it’s 10 remote....
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6317

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

Already happening. My employer was one of the first major tech companies to close their offices. Last week we were told that even in jurisdictions where restrictions are being lifted, our offices will remain closed. We likely won't re-open them for months and maybe not even till 2021. And, when our...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "certifying" a laptop to be sold
Replies: 56
Views: 2062

Re: "certifying" a laptop to be sold

Adverse filled? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection Never saw the phrase "adverse filled." Adverse selection, yes. Still don't see any significant applicability here. If you advertize used laptops, and someone is fishing for used hard drives of real people, they are likely to prey on yo...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "certifying" a laptop to be sold
Replies: 56
Views: 2062

Re: "certifying" a laptop to be sold

tibbitts wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:52 pm Adverse filled?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "certifying" a laptop to be sold
Replies: 56
Views: 2062

Re: "certifying" a laptop to be sold

Leave it to the buyer to "certify" that everything works. Remove your hard drive and keep it. Laptop rotating drives have glass platters. You'll need a jewelers philips head screw driver to open it up. Then when the disks are visible, put on gloves and eye protection. Place a screw driver on the pl...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "certifying" a laptop to be sold
Replies: 56
Views: 2062

Re: "certifying" a laptop to be sold

Wait for BestBuy to do the turn in/gift card credit. Take out the HDD. Most often when they do this they guarantee if it turns on they give a minimum value GC. I carry in the old laptop, turn it on, power it off then remove and keep the HDD. No ebay fees, no craigslist/facebook marketplace nonsense...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?
Replies: 99
Views: 6317

Re: Do you expect your employer to change their stance on WFH after Coronavirus?

given Coronavirus and the fact that many of us that can WFH are, do you expect your employer to change their tune regarding WFH and potentially offering it as a benefit going forward? I consider WFH to be a major PITA and a major hinderance to work, in general. If WFH is offered as a 'benefit', I h...
by AlphaLess
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "certifying" a laptop to be sold
Replies: 56
Views: 2062

Re: "certifying" a laptop to be sold

I would never buy a used laptop from someone else. Just too much risk.
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Forester wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:01 pm Forward S&P 500 P/E is an eye-watering 19.1! https://twitter.com/FactSet/status/1254485655775780865
Would it be equally eye-watering if SP500 company earnings go negative?
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

- the down legs of V are easy to get, as negative shocks propagate fast. The up leg is not guaranteed, we could have an L___ recovery, Are you referring to the economy or the market? If it's the market, please explain how we could have "an L___ recovery" when we've already bounced 30% off the lows ...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

If the market were forward looking, then how do you explain the fact that on Feb 19 2020, SP500 traded at 3393? I think the stock market is fine. It is fine at 2800, and it will be fine at 500. Your asset level may not be fine. Simple, the market was looking forward to future earnings being higher ...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Robot Monster wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:40 am Doesn't the idea of the Fed propping up the market, or put another way, goosing asset prices above their fundamental worth, make any other investors uncomfortable?
It does. 'uncomfortable' is an emotion. The less emotion you use in investing, the better. Ideally: zero emotion.
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

- the down legs of V are easy to get, as negative shocks propagate fast. The up leg is not guaranteed, we could have an L___ recovery, Are you referring to the economy or the market? If it's the market, please explain how we could have "an L___ recovery" when we've already bounced 30% off the lows ...
by AlphaLess
Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

- the down legs of V are easy to get, as negative shocks propagate fast. The up leg is not guaranteed, we could have an L___ recovery, Are you referring to the economy or the market? If it's the market, please explain how we could have "an L___ recovery" when we've already bounced 30% off the lows ...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

- the down legs of V are easy to get, as negative shocks propagate fast. The up leg is not guaranteed, we could have an L___ recovery, Are you referring to the economy or the market? If it's the market, please explain how we could have "an L___ recovery" when we've already bounced 30% off the lows ...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64925

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

My opinion: - a lot is unknown about the virus, still, - in the face of uncertainty, people tend to be conservative in decision making (if I don't know any better, I skip that restaurant meal, for the next two years), - in the face of uncertainty, businesses tighten the belt (no cap ex spending), - ...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for the storm ahead.
Replies: 59
Views: 6647

Re: Preparing for the storm ahead.

It's not clear why you don't have more assets at your age and income. Did you recently join the upper class? Are you house poor? You don't need to tell me why, but I think this is something you should understand for your own benefit. 250k * .6 = 150k a year will buy a lot of beer, especially consid...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone plans to drive to the beachs in Florida in May?
Replies: 12
Views: 1565

Re: Anyone plans to drive to the beachs in Florida in May?

It seems that some beaches in Florida are open? Can anyone in Florida confirm if the beaches are open to local residents only or also to tourists? Are the hotels open there? I think I have stayed home too long and want a change. Does anyone also plan to drive to Florida beaches? Are the interstate ...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 13239

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

We moved out of NYC area once, for about a 20% increase in pay. I think reductions in state+local taxes, and reduction in rent probably bumped the pay raise even more. Now considering moving back in, but will be asking for a 30% increase on top of the expected pay. NYC local tax rate on he order of ...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 4023

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

I love this sentence from this article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-25/the-20-minutes-that-broke-the-u-s-oil-market?srnd=premium&sref=bUCBYPKA "Around the world, Saudi princes and Texan wildcatters and Russian oligarchs looked on with horror as the world’s most important commodit...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery
Replies: 55
Views: 4023

Re: Best Financial Instrument to profit from the upcoming Oil-Price Recovery

Dear all, As of this morning, Crude Oil future for May 2020 trades @ 14.80$, at a 21-year low. We all know that this low price is "temporary" in the sense that oil producers worldwide cannot survive prices below 35$ in the long-run. At 35$, they'd be able to break even and report profits. As a resu...
by AlphaLess
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DD's apartment complex requires renters insurance
Replies: 50
Views: 2132

Re: DD's apartment complex requires renters insurance

I think it is a great idea to have a renter's policy.

If water leaks from a neighboring apartment, their policy won't cover it.
by AlphaLess
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?
Replies: 1661
Views: 139551

Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

I got a call from the dentist office. The Governor just relaxed restrictions on routine dental appointments and I can come in next Monday for my regularly scheduled appointment. Needless to say, I'm rescheduling to probably June or July - at the earliest. I can see how the dentist / assistant needs...
by AlphaLess
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 56
Views: 5726

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer limits on bank savings accounts

I would change the title of the thread to:

"Federal Reserve scraps monthly transfer count limits on savings accounts"
by AlphaLess
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has any recent events changed your mind on corporate buybacks.
Replies: 5
Views: 495

Re: Has any recent events changed your mind on corporate buybacks.

Just a month ago, I was always 100% sold on the idea that corporate buybacks were superior to dividends due to the tax treatment, etc. With the recent events that have transpired (bailouts), has anyone else’s opinion changed even just a little? There is nothing wrong with corporate buybacks. Howeve...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you manage your cash position with your broker?
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: How do you manage your cash position with your broker?

I know oil has blown out a lot of traders lately, but mainly I would suggest that you don't run so close to the edge that a margin call is a real risk. Oil futures are kind of a big boys game now that it can swing $50+ in a day. This is a really lame dystopia. The zombies are corporations, and they...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

That way you can, if you want, build the model yourself. A lot of people put their code on github or something. Might be worth to contact him. I guess. I wouldn’t know what to do with it. I have no clue how to do half the stuff he says he did. That’s why it usually takes a team. Not just one guy. M...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimizing PPP Forgiveness
Replies: 369
Views: 27021

Re: Optimizing PPP Forgiveness

We just received documents to e—sign our PPP loan. We will be closed for a few more weeks minimum and my employees are on unemployment. I would rather not accept this PPP loan until I open back up. Does anybody know how long I have before I need to e-sign? I’m trying to keep the 8 week clock from s...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic
Replies: 164
Views: 13239

Re: Moving out of NYC due to pandemic

Hi, I am a hospital employed surgeon in NYC with 4 years in practice. The way this current pandemic is unfolding, I am thinking about moving to some other less dense location primarily for the health of my family and myself. Getting a new job will not be that difficult but my total compensation wil...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

That way you can, if you want, build the model yourself. A lot of people put their code on github or something. Might be worth to contact him. I guess. I wouldn’t know what to do with it. I have no clue how to do half the stuff he says he did. That’s why it usually takes a team. Not just one guy. M...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

My plan would be for those under 54 to be experimentally infected. The survivors will provide herd immunity for the rest of us. :wink: Edited to add a dramatic breakthrough in treatment unveiled at today's briefing,,,wait for it... SUNSHINE! Yes, if you're infected, just go outside in the sun and y...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Quoting: "The parameters/inputs of this simulator are then learned using machine learning techniques that attempts to minimize the error between the projected outputs and the actual results. We utilize daily deaths data reported by each state/country to forecast future deaths. After some additional...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

folkher0 wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:30 pm That way you can, if you want, build the model yourself.
A lot of people put their code on github or something.

Might be worth to contact him.
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Hopes dashed as coronavirus drug remdesivir fails first trial https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52406261 So much speculation on this drug based on one leaked conference call from Chicago and now “accidentally” published data from China. I’ll reserve judgement either way for now. I think it is a mistak...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The last thing I will say about this thing that is kind of weird is that I don't know anything about who made this model. Here's my academic bias again but usually I would expect someone to attach their credentials to a model. All I see is a name Youyang Gu. It is attached to a Twitter feed that ha...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Hopes dashed as coronavirus drug remdesivir fails first trial https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52406261 So much speculation on this drug based on one leaked conference call from Chicago and now “accidentally” published data from China. I’ll reserve judgement either way for now. I think it is a mistak...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Perhaps use something along the lines of radiation monitoring. Put a Virus absorbing/ adsorbing strip on healthcare workers and at the end of the shift measure virus exposure. Lets say the exposure turns out to Intensivist (1000,000) , Hospitalist (100,000), Outpatient clinic doctor (10,000) and no...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The model is “updated in real time”. It ought to be close. Today. Exactly. Which is a HUGE value added. Prior to Cuomo's revelation of the serum-test driven numbers TODAY, the model had predictions of the hidden number of infecteds. And that number is very close to what Cuomo put up today (I think ...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I just wanted to chime in and say that I am enjoying the NFL Draft, coronavirus edition.
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The model is “updated in real time”. It ought to be close. Today. Exactly. Which is a HUGE value added. Prior to Cuomo's revelation of the serum-test driven numbers TODAY, the model had predictions of the hidden number of infecteds. And that number is very close to what Cuomo put up today (I think ...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title
Replies: 102
Views: 9484

Re: Parents want me to pay off their mortgage in exchange for title

in fact, unless your small business grows into medium business (25+ employees), that small business is a hobby. Please define "hobby." I know people who net hundreds of thousands of dollars per year running businesses with less than 25 employees. Some are sole proprietors and have been operating fo...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Another COVID projection model. I tend to like this one a lot more. #1. It is non-parametric, i.e., does not make any assumptions about the type of curve, #2. Does not make assumptions about R0. Rather, infers R0, #3. Models hidden variables such as true number infected, #4. Updates in real-time. h...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

A. highly infected place like NYC, which according to Cuomo has a 20% infection rate (and according to the model I posted, is likely to be true), B. highly sparsely population place with strict rules on some activities (like eating at a restaurant and getting a haircut). Those in the middle are stu...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4981

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

oldfort wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:29 pm Described this way, it sounds like a scam from the standpoint of any outside investors.
I can see where you are coming from. I would hesitate to call it a scam, because they can still provide value to investors.

Say, they return 8-10% a year, in *SOMEWHAT* uncorrelated manner to market.
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Another COVID projection model. I tend to like this one a lot more. #1. It is non-parametric, i.e., does not make any assumptions about the type of curve, #2. Does not make assumptions about R0. Rather, infers R0, #3. Models hidden variables such as true number infected, #4. Updates in real-time. h...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Another COVID projection model. I tend to like this one a lot more. #1. It is non-parametric, i.e., does not make any assumptions about the type of curve, #2. Does not make assumptions about R0. Rather, infers R0, #3. Models hidden variables such as true number infected, #4. Updates in real-time. h...
by AlphaLess
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Covid19 resistant job
Replies: 154
Views: 10033

Re: Best Covid19 resistant job

If things get worse than they are now, what are the best Covid19 resistant jobs that one could prepare for in the next 6 to 12 months, that would not require an additional college degree. Even some seemingly safe fields (i.e. nursing) appear to be at some risk due to low demand now that everyone is...
by AlphaLess
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77735

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Apologies if this is a re-post, but I came across a great image depicting social distancing and death rates in US cities during the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic. You can clearly see which cities re-opened everything up too soon. The article's worth a read too. Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.co...