Bogleheads.org

spdoublebass

matthewmatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:20 am Link to Bernstein's taxable portfolio shows final balance $247,440 if not adjusted for inflation, and $301,344 if adjusted for inflation.

I think because you are contributing a fixed amount. That amount is being adjusted for inflation over time. (It's increasing)

spdoublebass

I do like I Bonds but I don't love them so much that I would buy blindly at 0% fixed. I did max out this year. TIAA Traditional is by far my largest bond holding. One downside of your proposal is ease of rebalancing. Not sure about Stable Value funds in general but funds in TIAA Traditional are oft...

spdoublebass

If the limit on iBonds (10K per person) fell under your annual purchase amount for bonds, would you use that with a Stable Value fund and call it a day? The main issue people have with iBonds is the annual limit amount not letting them put a dent in their bond allocation. If you make $100K a year an...

spdoublebass

What you describe makes no sense. Taylor states above since the funds inception BNDX has underperformed. It hasn’t. My chart showed from inception to March 2020. He didn’t say YTD. Who cares about YTD? Pull up morningstar and compare from Jan 1st 2014- through today. BNDX has outperformed BND. I un...

spdoublebass

Taylor states above since the funds inception BNDX has underperformed. spdoublebass: You have misquoted me. I never used the word "inception." I simply took the 5-year returns quickly available from Vanguard's website. It would have been wrong to compare two funds with different inception...

spdoublebass

What you describe makes no sense. Taylor states above since the funds inception BNDX has underperformed. It hasn’t. My chart showed from inception to March 2020. He didn’t say YTD. Who cares about YTD? Pull up morningstar and compare from Jan 1st 2014- through today. BNDX has outperformed BND. I un...

spdoublebass

Vanguard investment experts now recommend a Four Fund Portfolio of Total Stock, Total International Stock, Total Bond, and Total International Bond. Total International Stock is 40% of the stock allocation. Total International Bond is 30% of the bond allocation. abuss368: Vanguard has been wrong du...

spdoublebass

Vanguard investment experts now recommend a Four Fund Portfolio of Total Stock, Total International Stock, Total Bond, and Total International Bond. Total International Stock is 40% of the stock allocation. Total International Bond is 30% of the bond allocation. abuss368: Vanguard has been wrong du...

spdoublebass

Does the amount we get depend on how much income you have lost due to Covid? My monthly income is around $1500, but I've only lost maybe half that. I am wondering if it is worth the trouble of this 2+ hour application for what could be a small payout with complex "strings attached"! I cou...

spdoublebass

So, by that logic, World Bonds + World Stock > U.S. Bonds + World Stock > U.S. Bonds + U.S. Stock, I suppose. I openly state I know nothing, but I don’t think that’s at all what he is saying. What is Better? I think what he’s saying is world stock plus world bonds is more is more diverse. Period. T...

spdoublebass

Does the amount we get depend on how much income you have lost due to Covid? My monthly income is around $1500, but I've only lost maybe half that. I am wondering if it is worth the trouble of this 2+ hour application for what could be a small payout with complex "strings attached"! I cou...

spdoublebass

I guess I meant if a person isn’t ok with TBM because it fluctuates due to the credit it holds, how will that same person be ok with the underperformance of treasury bonds only? Why is the choice limited to TBM or Treasuries? TBM is composed of three bond types: credit, Treasuries and mortgage back...

spdoublebass

I'm embarrassed to have to ask this, but can someone elaborate on this for me? If you're not Spock-like and bothered when TBM fluctuates, why then would you have what is needed to withstand being unhappy 95% of the time and wish you took more credit risk? I ask this question respectfully. I know ho...

spdoublebass

It all depends on your psychological makeup. If you're Spock-like, then TBM, or short-term BM, is just fine. It's mostly governments, so you won't get nailed too badly by its credit risk, and when that happens in very, very bad states of the world, you won't mind. If you're not Spock-like, then the...

spdoublebass

Could it be a risk of underperforming and thus the impact on retirement? Sure it could, as it could be with international equities. Lately they've been nothing but a drag on performance. They will have to outperform significantly and for some time to make up the ground lost so far in my own portfol...

spdoublebass

Bogleheads - I found this article very interesting and insightful: Bogle Had a Point on International Stocks Vanguard's founder didn't see the need for them, and the markets haven't shown reason to suggest he was wrong. The link to Morningstar: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/977718/bogle-had-...

spdoublebass

If yield x duration is used, long-term Treasuries would have to go negative to beat EE Bonds for 20 years. Like if Treasury yields right now went to zero from 1% where they currently are, you could expect a 20% NAV boost. So ... to get doubling, you'd need it to go something like -4% (i.e. 5% yield...

spdoublebass

I changed my mind a little. I started with the hypothesis that any addition of EE bonds was detrimental to the portfolio of every investor at every point in US history. It was detrimental for 1 year periods. It was detrimental for three year periods. It was detrimental to 20 and 5 and 10 and 30 yea...

spdoublebass

P.S. Jack Bogle was right - I completely agree with what he said: "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it's international. I want you to think it through for yourself." I was there, in person, when he said it. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=104781...

spdoublebass

P.S. Jack Bogle was right - I completely agree with what he said: "If there's one place I don't want people to take my advice, it's international. I want you to think it through for yourself." I was there, in person, when he said it. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=104781...

spdoublebass

Musicians. My wife and I play with the same orchestra, which is paying us through April. We have heard rumors that we will be paid for May as well. Our medical will be paid even if they do stop salary. All teaching, Universities and Private, are now done online.

spdoublebass

firebirdparts wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:34 am
spdoublebass wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:13 am Last 20 years since Jan 2000, LTT beat Us and International stock.
yeah, but that's only useful if you know it 20 years ago. It doesn't help now.

Couldn’t you say the same thing about the OP?

spdoublebass

Last 20 years since Jan 2000, LTT beat Us and International stock. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperati...

spdoublebass

If you're buying TIPS and I-bonds, you don't have to use an estimated number for inflation at all. It doesn't matter if inflation is 1% or 10%. Your real return at the time of purchase will be on top of whatever inflation is between the time of purchase and the time they mature. I see what you mean...

spdoublebass

10 year TIPS currently have a real yield of .62%, which is in addition to whatever the CPI rate turns out to be), and 30 year TIPS have a real yield of .78%. So you wouldn't need to quite invest in $1,000 of TIPS in order to have $1,000 of inflation-adjusted value upon redemption. In order to figur...

spdoublebass

I wish I knew more about how to match liability (like with EE bonds) and also protect against inflation. That's what TIPS and I-bonds are for; they provide explicit inflation protection. Right, I guess what I'm saying is I don't understand how to use them to my advantage. If I want $1000 a month fr...

spdoublebass

While I love this forum, I have a hard time figuring out what applies to me and what does not. Can someone break down this for a layperson making $75K a year? I diligently save 20%, sometimes more, but for planning purposes I say I'll save $15K a year. I've always wondered about using EE bonds to ha...

spdoublebass

I should I have stated I don't use these myself. I only posted this because I didn't know they were planning on adding a treasury variety.

I was intrigued with the corporate variety for saving for a date specific purchase, but just ended up using what others have mentioned up thread.

spdoublebass

With all the commotion lately I didn't notice that iShares released an all treasury bond target date ETF on Feb 20th, 2020.

They have previously had Corporate, High Yield, and Muni options.

https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/b ... nd-ladders

spdoublebass

palanzo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:45 am
Has TBM lost this much during other financial events?

Go to Morningstar and pull up a chart of TSM and TBM over 2008-09.

You can see the daily movement of TBM.

spdoublebass

watchnerd wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:58 pm
It's a trade off between duration / inflation / deflation hedging vs a more-LMP oriented thinking on bonds for younger investors.

Can you elaborate a little on what you mean by that? the bolded part. Just curious thanks.

spdoublebass

Please note: I am not changing anything and this post has nothing to do with the state of the current market. In this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=219307 bobcat2 made these statements: - When you want to turn assets in bond funds into safe income in retirement - there are...

spdoublebass

Folks, 1. What is your AA (Stock:Bond), given your age? and why? 2. How do you glide your risk (stock percentage) as you age and/or approach your 'need' portfolio value ? 3. Given the current market and health crisis, how do you 'stay the course' on your AA ? Love to get your numbers and inputs. ps...

spdoublebass

But there may be a problem when the stinker is always the same one. But it's not. In the lost decade, the US was the stinker vs international. The difference was not remotely equal though. 2000-2009 nominal CAGR U.S. -.27% Ex-U.S. 2.29% 2010-Feb., 2020 nominal CAGR U.S. 12.11% ex-U.S. 3.91% Want to...

spdoublebass

Best suggestion to protect ourselves? About 50% of our PF is Total bond (VBTLX); 25% is MM/Cash (25% is stock - which we've written off at this point)? Do we sell/move to MM or will that go kaput? Never thought this would be a worry - so quickly things have taken a turn. We are on cusp of retiremen...

spdoublebass

The "100% stocks" threads, and there were lots of them, seem awfully quiet right now. They are probably busy buying more. Many of those posters who are 100% stock have many years ahead of them. I don't think the recent market conditions bother them at all. On the other hand, I'm surprised...

spdoublebass

Thinking about this, maybe LT bonds aren't such a terrible idea, there's nothing to say they won't bounce around at these low yields for another few years. I mean in terms of a portfolio dampener, not getting much or any real return. Portfolio damping and 0 real return under a variety of conditions...

spdoublebass

Wouldn’t you have to do it as a cash advance?
Don’t cash advances typically have a separate APR?

spdoublebass

I've recently started listening to Dr. Dahle's podcast. I hear him reference the PSLF loan forgiveness program. Does he think the PSLF program will be changed in the future. Currently I qualify, but I'm always worried the law will change. However, it is my limited understanding that if the laws do c...

spdoublebass

Some of the 246k tIRA might be converted to Roth over time. Don't let 10% and 12% tax rates go to waste. But there could be reasons that Roth conversions are not helpful, particularly at higher rates. Also, remember about the 5 year rule. You didn't state if your mother already has a roth IRA or no...

spdoublebass

Some of the 246k tIRA might be converted to Roth over time. Don't let 10% and 12% tax rates go to waste. But there could be reasons that Roth conversions are not helpful, particularly at higher rates. Also, remember about the 5 year rule. You didn't state if your mother already has a roth IRA or no...

spdoublebass

1789 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:52 pm Anyone knows if there is a single fund that holds --> 90% US stocks + 10% US bonds or 80% US stocks + 20% US bonds?

I don't know of one.

But you could always use:
VTSAX 50%/VBIAX 50% for an overall 80/20 AA
or
VTSAX 75%/VBIAX 25% for an overall 90/10 AA

spdoublebass

Jack Bogle recommended "age in bonds" as a starting point. One can simply adjust from there based on their desired asset allocation. I think there comes a point where Jack's points on some matters are getting outdated due to changes in the macro economic and investing environments and it'...

spdoublebass

OVER AGE 59.5 LESS THAN FIVE YEARS SINCE OPENING FIRST ROTH IRA Contributions: Tax-No, Penalty-No Conversions: Tax-No, Penalty-No (Taxable Portion) Conversions: Tax-No, Penalty-No (Nontaxable Portion) Earnings: Tax-Yes, Penalty-No If the Roth IRA is less than 5 years old, then so must be the conver...

spdoublebass

My question is this: What if that same 65 year old did some Roth conversions as well. Say he converted money each year from his Trad IRA . Does each conversion have a 5 year rule attached to it? or when the Roth has been open for 5 years the rule falls away because they are over 59.5 years old? Spe...

spdoublebass

And I believe that your Roth IRA clock starts back on 1/1/2019! Can I ask one follow up question. I have searched the forum about the 5 year rule. I get it. However, sometimes I need it spelled out for me. I was asking these questions on behalf of someone else who was curious and I thought I'd post...

spdoublebass

OP, Ask the HS Senior to-be what jobs and career path that he is going to pursue with that degree? If he does not know, why is he doing this degree? He is the one that needs to come up with an answer. In my case, when my kid cannot come up with that answer with a physics degree, I told him point-bl...

spdoublebass

Hotshot035 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:16 pm Yes you can. You have to April 15 to open it for 2019.

Thank you. I thought so but I wanted to make sure.

spdoublebass

If someone opens a new Roth IRA today, can they contribute the Max still for 2019? Or does the account have to be opened in 2019?

I know if you have one you can contribute until the deadline. My question is what if you do not already have an account.

spdoublebass

Great podcast Rick!!! All of them have been great to be honest, but I have been looking forward to this one ever since you announced Paul Merriman as the guest. While I don’t tilt to SCV, I’ve always enjoyed Paul’s podcasts as well. How anyone could walk away from listening to this interview and hav...

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