Search found 634 matches

by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2967

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

I do wonder what the long term future of buybacks vs dividends becomes. In some ways, I think that it is likely reasonable that we continue in a world where both happen. While they are different mechanisms, they should be ultimately equivalent according to Modigliani and Miller so barring tax consid...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 160
Views: 33515

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

This thread is quite unique and interesting. Impressive amount of analysis. This sort of checking to see what performance truly was is the kind of thing any investor needs to do to keep themselves honest and know how they did. Is there anything you would have done differently if you were starting ov...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 6698

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

I think it is ultimately a matter of whether small caps have a higher risk-adjusted return or simply a higher return. I feel markets are relatively efficient, so I don't think a drastically higher risk-adjusted expected return is all that likely over many-decade time spans. More return for more risk...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets take about the adjustment
Replies: 13
Views: 1945

Re: Lets take about the adjustment

...Granted no one can predict,... Stop right there. Yes. If you have already granted that no one can reliably predict a crash, why try? To believe in being able to get out before a crash is to believe that the stock market is risky for everybody else, but not for you. I doubt this. I think that if ...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or Not - Get One? How did you choose?
Replies: 137
Views: 10734

Re: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?

I find it helpful to later quickly spot my own posts in threads. I change mine frequently if something catches my eye. I do wish the forum would allow slightly larger avatars. Really, only 8 kB? 514.696 MB = 8 kb * 64,337 members to date That's why. I'm confused, is the problem storage space or ban...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Efficient Investing With The Three-Fund Portfolio"
Replies: 2
Views: 846

Re: "Efficient Investing With The Three-Fund Portfolio"

It always amazes me how simple portfolios like the Three Fund portfolio allow investors to get market returns (less ~0.04% fees) without doing any work analyzing active funds, managing complex portfolios, keeping up with market conditions, learning about factor tilting, etc. It almost seems unfair. ...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2517

Re: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017

Investors, though, are all human and humanity hasn't changed. People are subject to the same emotional and behavioral biases and shortcomings that they always have been - technology and modernity doesn't change that. Good point. But I believe this applies more so to stock investing, where investors...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2517

Re: Interest Rates Over Seven Centuries, 1273-2017

Clearly, the multi-century trend has been toward lower real interest rates — from 9.4% in the 1400s, to 3.4% in the 1800s, to 1.24% in the 2000s. This is consistent with the generally declining societal risk over the centuries, as economies and financial markets worldwide became more stable and les...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lets take about the adjustment
Replies: 13
Views: 1945

Re: Lets take about the adjustment

-Japan hasn't recovered from it's bubble that peaked in 1989. Crashes can be as short as a flash crash (lasting seconds to hours) to as long as the depression, or even longer. There's no rule that says recovery has to come after 1 to 2 years. -The Boglehead philosophy says to stay the course and not...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard adviser recommends 4 fund portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 5759

Re: Vanguard adviser recommends 4 fund portfolio

It is usually preferable to have a diversified portfolio, and having a mix of different types of (uncorrelated) assets gives you the most "bank for your buck" in terms of expected returns vs. volatility. Of course, diversified portfolios have their own downsides (e.g., it can be a pain to re-balanc...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT
Replies: 192
Views: 34114

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

Did Rick Ferri attend? Rick Ferri spent probably 90% of his time explaining - to anyone and everyone who would listen :D - his "Education of an Index Investor" theory, sort of an investment journey from Darkness to Enlightenment, then a fall into Complexity, followed by the Great Awakening and Deep...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Replenishment
Replies: 14
Views: 2109

Re: Emergency Fund Replenishment

The obvious answer is that you need to have an emergency fund for your emergency fund. That is equivalent to the emergency fund being large enough in the first place for two emergencies. But, the actual advice is that you build up again by saving. The whole point of an emergency fund is to not have...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book
Replies: 11
Views: 2216

Re: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book

By contrast, I have never been convinced it is meaningful to talk about say 95% losses on the German or Japanese markets. If you were Jewish or other enemy of the Third Reich, or lived in what became East Germany, then you had 100% losses. Similarly starvation killed perhaps 1 million Japanese in 1...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635990

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

N/A() seems to disrupt calculations (like taking an average of all Sharpe Ratios across row 160) more than leaving it blank does. Including some sort of text other than N/A() also doesn't seem to disrupt calculations either. So I'd prefer something other than N/A. You have an excellent point. Well,...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Replenishment
Replies: 14
Views: 2109

Re: Emergency Fund Replenishment

Thanks to everyone for the thoughts and replies. Some reactions and ideas: ... The short answer. In the beginning (new investor, low total investments, don't yet have "enough"), it's simpler to keep your EFs separate from your (taxable) retirement investments. Refill your EFs with new money and red...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How fast can tax reform be rolled out (in general)?
Replies: 10
Views: 2341

Re: How fast can tax reform be rolled out (in general)?

Tax changes can also be done retroactively. So, theoretically it is possible for a change to be made in December and it applies to the whole of 2017. Yes, pretty much anything is possible. In theory, things could be rushed through or could drag out for decades, and changes could be minor or major. ...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98893

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Why not just look at the fact sheet for the FTSE All World index ? As of 9/29/17, the United States comprised 51.28% of global market cap. Or avoid the tedium and use a total world index fund or get close enough with a 50/50 split. It is worth noting that there is a difference between Cap Weight in...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or Not - Get One? How did you choose?
Replies: 137
Views: 10734

Re: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?

My avatar a hierarchy chart. I like hierarchy charts more than pie charts because they show levels of importance and relationships between different assets. The original chart that I made was much larger and more expansive. It breaks down domestic stocks into large, mid, and small caps - and interna...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book
Replies: 11
Views: 2216

Re: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book

Also, looking at other countries can be helpful, as well, especially given Vanguard's inclusion of 40% international stock in Target Date and Life Strategy funds. Japan had enormous crash in the 1980s that it has yet to recover from. The German and Japanese markets experienced declines on the order...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635990

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Thanks - and no need to take care of it anytime soon - it's a minor bug. Sorry to be so nitpicky about what's really such a minor detail. By all means, keep being nitpicky, I really appreciate the feedback. I actually took a closer look, and it seems that everything works fine in all sheets when I ...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard all equity portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 10782

Re:

Any critics for: % 12.5 500 Index 12.5 Value Index 12.5 Small Cap Index 12.5 Small Cap Value Index 20.0 Developed Markets Index 20.0 International Value 10.0 Emerging Mkt. Stock Index Or too boring? :) The accidental resurrection of this old thread provides an opportunity to backtest with some out ...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 2:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Patient but not that lucky
Replies: 42
Views: 3904

Re: Patient but not that lucky

I do not personally agree with speculation, which I feel is akin to gambling. Styles of investment where an individual investor attempts to achieve excess returns through concentrated individual stock positions, with no real basis for why they will achieve those excess returns, are inherently specul...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Replenishment
Replies: 14
Views: 2109

Re: Emergency Fund Replenishment

Thanks to everyone for the thoughts and replies. Some reactions and ideas: The emergency fund gets replenished from your earned income, not from rebalancing. It is easier to not include it in your retirement portfolio. You are correct that if one's emergency fund is included in their retirement port...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 -- Ten Years Thoughts?
Replies: 45
Views: 6294

Re: S&P 500 -- Ten Years Thoughts?

Both funds are excellent with similar risk, return, and great tax-efficiency. Best wishes. Taylor If they are similar in risk, return and efficiency why would anyone choose SP500? the added advantage of total stock market is greater diversification. JD101: Most 401k plans include a low-cost S&P 500...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World expense ratio lowered
Replies: 38
Views: 9452

Re: Total World expense ratio lowered

I am hoping we hear some good news in 2018 with regards to a possible cost reduction or the inclusion of admiral offerings. Total World (VTWSX) is still my core fund in taxable due to the ease of a true one fund (no rebalancing between VTIAX/VTSAX) and the tax benefit of the fund/ETF paring. Makes ...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 35
Views: 4935

Re: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged

Too big a difference to ignore. Yes! And very similar math will show why high expense ratios are similarly bad. Yes - interesting how a load on a mutual fund is parallels paying taxes before investing after tax money - and the tax drag from paying income taxes on portfolio income in taxable funds e...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635990

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

So I investigated the issue further. If you increase the number of decimal places displayed on cash's standard deviation (Cell BY159), you get a standard deviation that is very, very small - but nonzero. This is because, it turns out, the returns on zero-return cash were -0.0001 in 2014 and 0.0001 ...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book
Replies: 11
Views: 2216

Re: 'A History of the United States in 5 Crashes' book

I haven't read it, I'll keep it in mind as something to possibly borrow from the library. But on checking the description in Amazon, I find the choice of the "five crashes" disappointing: The Panic of 1907: When the Knickerbocker Trust Company failed, after a brazen attempt to manipulate the stock ...
by TD2626
Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635990

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

A quick question and a possible minor bug fix: -What is the Sharpe Ratio of Cash? (*Note - in this post's context, cash is something earning 0% interest and having 0 standard deviation. In most other contexts those who say "cash" mean money markets or a high-yield savings account, which earns close ...
by TD2626
Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Replenishment
Replies: 14
Views: 2109

Emergency Fund Replenishment

I’m trying to figure out how emergency funds would get replenished if they are ever need to be used, especially in a down stock market. I have in my Investment Policy Statement (IPS) something along these lines: The reason for holding an emergency fund or cash allocation is to have a ready supply of...
by TD2626
Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2340
Views: 1469693

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

TD2626: Thank you for your excellent analysis of The Three-Fund Portfolio . Best wishes. Taylor Thank you - and thank you for creating and writing the book on this benchmark portfolio! When buying index funds, one owns the benchmark fund against which other funds are measured. When buying this thre...
by TD2626
Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 35
Views: 4935

Re: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged

Thanks for the discussion in this thread. I've learned a lot and I will definitely give more consideration to the point of the Boglehead Philosophy's tenant of "Minimize Taxes" . I'd been focusing on worry and worst-case calculations but I've been doing some more calculations and it seems like in th...
by TD2626
Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big basket of stocks really more "diversified" than a smaller basket?
Replies: 22
Views: 2267

Re: Is a big basket of stocks really more "diversified" than a smaller basket?

My opinions on this: One thing to consider is that in theory, if you have a market of, say, ~5000 stocks, and you select N stocks to buy and hold, and if those N stocks have as close as possible to the same characteristics (sector weightings, P/E ratio, market cap distribution, dividend yield, etc) ...
by TD2626
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1673288

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I know this market is in for a tumble. Not because it keeps going up, but because it doesn't go down. The dip-buyers can't get in because there are no dips. Just what it did the last times just before it crapped out. Are you short the market? Do you have a time table for this prediction? How much w...
by TD2626
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual gift tax exclusion raised to 15,000 in 2018
Replies: 3
Views: 993

Re: Annual gift tax exclusion raised to 15,000 in 2018

Lots of stuff gets adjusted regularly for inflation. Staying abreast of new developments helps one avoid mistakes. Also - before you start celebrating certain exclusions, deductions, limits, or allowances being changed: remember that these are generally inflation adjustments. There isn't actually an...
by TD2626
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2340
Views: 1469693

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I’ve read through a good part of this thread and some other ones and it seems Boglegeads have a serious aversion to international bonds, especially in this thread. If we believe in the value of diversification (which I hope we do) and believe in dicersification via international exposure (which I k...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 35
Views: 4935

Re: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged

If an investor has taxable accounts due to failure to take advantage of tax-deferred options in the past and/or taxable windfalls, is there something that people do to correct that? Or are they "stuck" in taxable? It's great to hear you ask this question! Hopefully, the light bulb went on for you a...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Difference in ERs between Vanguard's Funds vs ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 1162

Re: Difference in ERs between Vanguard's Funds vs ETFs

Yeah - I wish there was some guidance on this. I'm wishing Total World Admiral existed. The issue of investors considering etf shares vs investor shares when admiral doesn't exist is a thorny one. If an investor would prefer mutual fund shares instead of ETFs - given the fact that (as far as I know...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?
Replies: 29
Views: 2732

Re: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?

Just my opinions: Total Market funds already have NASDAQ stocks as a significant component. The real question is "Is there any theoretical reason to overweight,relative to the total market, the stocks that happen to be on one particular exchange or index". I don't think so. First of all, the NASDAQ ...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Difference in ERs between Vanguard's Funds vs ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 1162

Re: Difference in ERs between Vanguard's Funds vs ETFs

The unpredictability of when a fund will get admiral shares is annoying - there seems to be no pattern. I know. I feel like VFSVX (Ex-US Small) should have one by now. Been holding the investor shares since inception. :? I called them a while (a year, I think?) ago and they said there were no plans...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Popularity of Funds that track the Dow instead of the S&P 500
Replies: 19
Views: 2406

Re: Popularity of Funds that track the Dow instead of the S&P 500

All valid points, it's just maddening to see DOW break record after record while S&P sits at 2500 for what seems like forever. Can anyone recommend a mutual fund that best tracks DOW? I realize it is weighted abnormally. You are probably watching too much market news. The S&P first hit 2500 about 5...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 227
Views: 39660

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

Thank you to Taylor and Mel for working on this book - and for arranging to have the proceeds go to support a worthy cause. Taylor's Three-Fund portfolio has a lot going for it: very low cost, simple, efficient, and broadly diversified. Although there've been a lot of articles and threads devoted to...
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 35
Views: 4935

Re: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged

If an investor has taxable accounts due to failure to take advantage of tax-deferred options in the past and/or taxable windfalls, is there something that people do to correct that? Or are they "stuck" in taxable?
by TD2626
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 35
Views: 4935

Re: Regular Taxable Accounts vs Tax-Advantaged

With my tax deferred accounts, I am able to convert qualified dividends, which would be taxed at 15% in a taxable account, into Ordinary Income, which is federally taxed at 25-28% in my case... You aren't really losing money here. If you have $3000 to invest, you can put $4000 in your 401(k) in you...
by TD2626
Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Do Hedge Funds Exist?
Replies: 10
Views: 1694

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Do Hedge Funds Exist?

This article, which discusses the underperformance of hedge funds, shows that just because the really, really wealthy have access to something "ordinary" investors don't have access to doesn’t make it good. Unique access to something does not mean it's a free lunch. These speculative assets (I am sh...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1445

Re: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Funds?

You can see that the Wellington fund "is 70% lower than the average expense ratio of funds with similar holdings": https://s1.postimg.org/13u5jz0g0v/Capture3.jpg That's for investor shares. Although there is a 50k minimum, presumably most investors who buy the fund would eventually aim for Admiral ...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1445

Re: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Funds?

As to why Vanguard offers both, I don't know, but they always have. They are not doctrinaire. It's odd how things end up. Fidelity's index funds have some of the lowest expense ratios out there and last I checked Fidelity's S&P 500 index fund had more in assets under management than their Contrafun...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1445

Re: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Funds?

Some traditional mutual funds are index funds, and some ETFs are actively managed. Check the prospectus or fund description for more details. Mutual funds are not by definition active funds. There are additionally some funds that are not index funds—meaning that they don't follow a published index—...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Table 11.3 of The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 793

Re: Table 11.3 of The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

Capital gains would be expected to be negligible for bonds even over the long run. You get income from interest. You can make or lose money via capital gains/losses if bond prices rise or fall. Gains could come if interest rates change - there's an inverse relationship between bond prices and yeilds...
by TD2626
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund "share price"
Replies: 22
Views: 1467

Re: Mutual Fund "share price"

I believe that share price is a factor in purchasing consideration. Let me give you some examples: 1). Their is a reason that companies/mutual funds do share splits. (2 for 1, 3 for 1 splits). Their has been academic studies that show investor prefer lower share prices better than higher share pric...