Search found 634 matches

by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 12109

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Dave, Can you give me a comparative alt portfolio (including MOM, Reinsurance etc.) to a 60:40 three fund one. I really want to follow this prospectively. The alt portfolio has good 'science' but I'm skeptical of costs, implementation and performance in the next bear market and and I'm not even goi...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2282

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

S&P 500 is not active management. The index was not developed to beat the market but to represent the market. Before modern information technology calculating a daily total stock index would have been impossible. The S&P index was created to include enough stocks, across enough industries, to give ...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2282

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

An index, including the S&P 500, is an active fund. The only true passive fund is the Total Stock market index. There is a buyer and a seller, who determine the price of said stock, which is then compared to the total value of all investable stocks. your money is divided based on the price of the m...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 11846

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

So it appears that as the universe of listed stocks has expanded worldwide in recent decades, the number of companies available to ordinary index investors has more than kept pace — and international stock allocations have expanded accordingly. Interesting - this appears to be in contrast to the mu...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 11846

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

You could try searching the forum and seeing the 10,000 previous threads of the topic of international investing. For that matter, who needs the forums? just about every topic has been covered and we should just lock the whole thing down to read only... I mean why stop with this post? There are new...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Returns - How Long Do you Keep?
Replies: 56
Views: 6331

Re: Tax Returns - How Long Do you Keep?

Generally keep most paper documentation for a long time, if not forever. I need to develop better record retention guidelines though. Gut feeling of "eh.. this is getting old, I'll throw it out" shouldn't be how to operate.
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I bought Vanguard Index Funds to get the black friday shopping out of my system
Replies: 17
Views: 1809

Re: I bought Vanguard Index Funds to get the black friday shopping out of my system

Buying Vanguard index funds seems like a fairly Boglehead thing to do on Black Friday.

However, they're so low cost they don't need a sale - you can get them cheap any day!
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 11846

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

In some ways global cap weighting is a self-fulfilling prophecy - in mt opinion it becomes more and more reasonable to have a higher international allocation if global markets are more interconnected (so there are fewer costs and frictions associated with international investment). More people inves...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 11846

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

Bogleheads: "We believe that we don't know how any holdings will perform, so we buy the market. *Except US vs International." I think what we're seeing is the is the gradual demise of the last sentence which in my opinion is a good thing for US investors. "Fear of things foreign" is the basis of na...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 2282

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

It's hard to see how passive investing could be a bubble. Ok, maybe in a future crash, active crashes less and non-Boglehead investors pour money into active. How would this have been a bubble? What mechanisims exist by which the average passive fund could seriously (not just slightly) underperform ...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"
Replies: 54
Views: 15215

Re: "Got $1 million to retire? Here’s how long it will last, by U.S. state"

One's own expenses (which one should know or be able to estimate) are what matter. Cost of living in an area affects expenses, but isn't the same as expenses. It's possible to be especially frugal in a HCOL area or wasteful in a LCOL area. There can be other isssues too - this is a good one: These t...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inheriting 4 stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1588

Re: Inheriting 4 stocks

Yeah, if it's inheritance from taxable to taxable it's generally a case of step-up in basis with relatively minimal capital gain. If it's gifting while someone is alive it would involve a capital gain. If there did happen to be an enormous capital gain, selling some this tax year and some the next (...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice to become wealthy
Replies: 58
Views: 6708

Re: Advice to become wealthy

The literal (but too literal) answer to having the maximum possible net worth is this: Maximize earnings by working in a highly compensated field, while minimizing expenses by living in a tiny, shabby apartment with the maximum possible number of roommates and eating ramen noodles... I would posit ...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Christmas gifts for lots of kids (experiences or stock)?
Replies: 36
Views: 3357

Re: Christmas gifts for lots of kids (experiences or stock)?

Not stock. No. I once had the bright idea of giving my granddaughter... I think she was about eleven... a physical stock certificate for one share of Target, a paper series EE savings bond, and a paper series I savings bond. I guess I thought she would get out the graph paper and get busy charting ...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 12109

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

As I’ve written many times in the past, costs are certain and potential benefits are only just that, potential. So it’s hard to go wrong with a low cost tax efficient TSM approach. I would consider that the benchmark for comparison. But take a look at my thread on volatility drag, or Larry’s short ...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice to become wealthy
Replies: 58
Views: 6708

Re: Advice to become wealthy

The literal (but too literal) answer to having the maximum possible net worth is this: Maximize earnings by working in a highly compensated field, while minimizing expenses by living in a tiny, shabby apartment with the maximum possible number of roommates and eating ramen noodles. Don't have any fr...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you define success in your life?
Replies: 46
Views: 2603

Re: How do you define success in your life?

Using one's talents to help the world, realizing one's potential, and aiding others in doing the same. Oh... and having the most efficient portfolio possible. Highest Sharpe ratio. :D Or having the equanimity to realize that money is just a tool, and all the complex work of tilting that that could r...
by TD2626
Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 20480

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

I think that sometimes one has to live in the world that exists, not an ideal world that they wish existed. In this world, credit scores are commonly used (for ridiculous things that have nothing to do with debt repayment - like insurance rates and job applications). Thus, it can be helpful to have ...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Largest holding in Powell’s (next Fed chairman) investment portfolio appears to be Vanguard Total Stock Market index fu
Replies: 9
Views: 2213

Re: Largest holding in Powell’s (next Fed chairman) investment portfolio appears to be Vanguard Total Stock Market index

The Time article (http://time.com/money/5021471/fed-powell-vanguard-index-investor/) states: Either way Powell’s portfolio makes one thing clear: Being wealthy and sophisticated about the stock market doesn’t mean you need to dabble in exotic investments. No matter who you are, an ultra-low cost ind...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: annualized TLH data from Wealthfront
Replies: 7
Views: 1476

Re: annualized TLH data from Wealthfront

TLH benefits from a higher ratio of new money to old money. In another10 years the number for the 2012 cohort will drop dramatically. Good point - that's my concern with these statistics. If someone is not contributing heavily to taxable and most of their money is decades old, their cost basis will...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2831

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

My (unqualified, amateur) opinion is that Monte Carlo simulation is an important and common tool and can be very helpful, provided that the model is constructed very carefully (which is hard to do) and provided one understands all the limitations of the model (there are many limitations and few if a...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why did Vanguard drop TurboTax?
Replies: 16
Views: 4023

Re: Why did Vanguard drop TurboTax?

I think that minor perks that companies offer for obtaining a special status (e.g. "voyager" or "flagship") are just that -- minor perks of tiny economic value compared to the amounts invested. They should not influence decisions except to the extent of their (small) true economic value. I feel that...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 22128

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Let me state this very precisely. For me, "holding bonds" means holding a "core" bond fund--meaning a diversified fund that holds only investment-grade bonds, and no longer than intermediate-term on average. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is an example of such a fund; there are many others. ...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 1 Year CD now 1.65% with 25,000 Minimum
Replies: 10
Views: 2430

Re: Ally Bank 1 Year CD now 1.65% with 25,000 Minimum

Yes, Ally is known for high rates - along with others including Capital One. Yes, it's tax inefficient, but if one needs nominal safety, then I guess taxes are just the cost of that. It's good overall that savers are now getting non-negligible rates.
by TD2626
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Proposed changes to 457 contributions
Replies: 5
Views: 740

Re: Proposed changes to 457 contributions

It's against the forum rules to discuss proposed legislation, but I think the following advice stays within the spirit of the forum rules: As with many things in life (e.g. "don't count your chickens until they hatch"), don't make any changes based off proposed legislation. Proposed legislation can...
by TD2626
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 3062

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think of a portfolio this way. I think of a portfolio having risk and return as an entity. The risk and return of the portfolio can be calculated from the weighted proportions of the risk and return of the components (and the correlations). As a matter of arithmetic stocks are riskier and h...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 21779

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Good points. Individual stock investing is incredibly risky, and few are able to manage it. The time requirements and difficulty, coupled with the availability of low cost, broadly diversified mutual funds, is such that most individual investors in general should not look to individual stock investm...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clements: Your "Number One Number"
Replies: 24
Views: 4076

Re: Clements: Your "Number One Number"

Interesting article. I agree that recurring expenses are something that aren't considered enough. They happen again and again, so they are very important. Reducing recurring expenses that eat away at the budget week after week is an important thing to do to enable living below ones means. Living bel...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 7696

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you ...
by TD2626
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 3098

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

The "risk-free" rate is often used in various equations. Sometimes people use short term treasury yields as an approximation for this risk free rate. However, that does not mean that treasuries are truly 100% risk free. A major rating agency suggests that there are reasons to suspect that treasuries...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 6940

Re: The Personal Black Swan

From the look and time, I’d say it was the Russian Exchange....went to zero. I do not consider that a broadly diversified portfolio - as I specified. (Shrug) It's a fair criticism. I was thinking of "diversified" in the older meaning of "invested in the stocks of many different industries" but, yes...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 16160

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Some of my current opinions and feelings about this topic: It is important that an investor understand the implications Modigliani-Miller Theorem: dividends aren't magical - they are simply one component of total return. Capital gains are another component of total return. Whether one gets return fr...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why pay cash for a car?
Replies: 250
Views: 33266

Re: Why pay cash for a car?

$9/day? I hope that was a long, long time ago. Minimum wage is $100 a day in some states. One of my points is that if you're making $9 a day you shouldn't be buying a $20K car. Actually you probably shouldn't be buying a car at all on that income. But there is some amount of money where it is no lo...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 2390

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Phineas J Whoopee wrote: We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind. We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for g...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 6940

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Some thoughts and opinions: There are a lot of black swans that aren't discussed enough. -Physical theft -Uninsured disaster losses -Hacking losses -Conventional war -Identity Theft -Lawsuits -Failure of a brokerage -Failure of the SIPC -Failure of the FDIC or a government program -Global Pandemic -...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yay, my question was answered by Jack
Replies: 40
Views: 4470

Re: Yay, my question was answered by Jack

My own approach is not very different and just as personal and perhaps wishy-washy. But I am not afraid to present wishy-washy as a perfectly legitimate process for asset allocation. I agree. What matters is not to convince others with an easy to explain simplified framework. It is to truly convinc...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 7696

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1050

Re: AA: Should I List Junk Bond Fund Under Stocks or Bonds?

At some point, it depends on credit quality. A high yield fund that has lower overall credit quality is more stock-like than a high yield fund that has a higher overall credit quality. There are some funds like Vanguard's that I believe are thought to buy "less junky junk". Other funds focus on more...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 7696

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I used to say "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you want to be invested internationally, from 0 to 50%, and I can find you an expert who recommends that allocation." Now I can take out that reservation and just say, unconditionally, "just tell me how much of your stock allocation you ...
by TD2626
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your weighted average expense ratio?
Replies: 65
Views: 4720

Re: What's your weighted average expense ratio?

One question is whether those with CDs, high yield savings accounts, individual stocks, individual bonds, or physically held precious metals figure an overall expense ratio. Do these assets have zero expense ratio? What if most of your expenses involve transaction fees or one-time loads? Do these fe...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market replication divided into dividend/non-dividend sub components
Replies: 5
Views: 946

Re: Total Stock Market replication divided into dividend/non-dividend sub components

I've never heard of this being done, but it seems it could provide tax advantages.

High dividend yeild index funds are available. A few "buyback yeild" funds are available.

However, TSM is already fairly tax efficient so any improvement would likely not be worth it for many in my opinion.
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts about wearing a "uniform"/same thing everyday?
Replies: 138
Views: 11965

Re: Thouhgts about wearing a "uniform"/same thing everyday?

No, but I walked into a Walmart wearing a blue short sleeve polo and khakis and had 4-5 people coming up to me asking where items were. The first two I told them I didn't work there. The others, I played along and helped, told them where the items were. Luckily I knew. I'm glad no one reamed me out...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Isn't it safer to NOT sign Credit card?
Replies: 97
Views: 8435

Re: Isn't it safer to not sign Credit card?

If you don't sign it, and someone steals your card they can sign it as they see fit and you know what? Then THEIR signature on the receipt will match THEIR signature on the back of YOUR card. That's why you never want to leave it blank. Why let someone else decide what the signature should look lik...
by TD2626
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 213
Views: 22775

Re: Why NOT make more money?

The simple answer is: There is only so much time you get in this life, and making money (for the vast majority of people) takes time away from doing the things we'd like to do. The more complicated answer is: Just about anyone in our society can quit working and "live" off of what they have. Simila...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial Vanguard capital gains distribution announcement
Replies: 14
Views: 2174

Re: Initial Vanguard capital gains distribution announcement

I wonder why the Institutional and Institutional Plus Total Market Index funds are throwing off CG distributions, and the Admiral and Investor share classes are not. When it comes to mutual funds versus ETFs, there really shouldn't be any differences in CG distributions if they're the same (VTSAX v...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 5387

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

65B into 210T is 0.03% unless I made a mistake somewhere. Regardless: 1) An 0.03% allocation in an investment is absurdly small and Bitcoins are less convenient to transact and hold than an ETF or mutual fund. Typical Bogleheads thinking values simplicity and adding an additional investment to your...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth going forward
Replies: 8
Views: 1211

Re: Backdoor Roth going forward

Speculation about future tax law is against forum policy - because, among other reasons, taking action on what might happen may be counterproductive. Also, FWIW, you may be mistaking "Roth to traditional recharacterizations" for "traditional to Roth conversions". I believe that speculation about po...
by TD2626
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 6704

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Chart comparing Vanguard S&P 500(VFINX) to Vanguard Midcap (VMCPX), Small Cap (VSCPX) and Vanguard Total Market (VTSAX) http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShow...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2969

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

Very interesting stuff, SimpleGift, you are calling attention to lots of interesting stuff, thanks... NASDAQ has a "buyback achievers" index, there's at least one ETF that tracks it (PKW) and at least one international buyback achievers ETF (IPKW). I keep waiting for them to get some forum attentio...
by TD2626
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 6704

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

I think it is ultimately a matter of whether small caps have a higher risk-adjusted return or simply a higher return. I feel markets are relatively efficient, so I don't think a drastically higher risk-adjusted expected return is all that likely over many-decade time spans. More return for more ris...