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superlight wrote: Imagine what the real inflation rate must be!

That is an interesting comment because the real inflation rate is beginning to be over-reported. All those years of under-reporting will be made up for in the next few years.

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I'm sure they make plenty of money data mining peoples assets and financial activity. How does that generate revenue for Wells Fargo? This topic is way over my head, but I know these data folks make big bucks and are stressed about ethical issue all the time. My assumption is that by using the data...

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In my opinion, not quite. One can have price inflation without an increse (even a decrease) in money supply. Here's how. Americans love to run a 100 room hotel at 90% occupancy, at $70/night room rate. Londoners love to run it at 45% occupancy, $140/night room rate...same total money, but price inf...

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There are significant inflationary forces in emerging markets. Since it is the production of EM which has lowered the prices of so many goods (and services) in the 90s, if that has come to an end, it spells trouble for world consumers and world inflation. If there is no money, there will be no infl...

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the new ASUS EEE BOX pc has a peak load of 40watts. Its about $350.

Not much processing power, but probably a great media pc / internet terminal.

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Thanks for all the great information on this thread. I actually just keep a small percentage of my net worth at Scottrade. I am happy with everything about Scottrade except their low money market rates and my inability to ACH transfer funds out of there -- the latter is a showstopper for me. I love...

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Exactly five years ago the spread was near 2.1%. As of Friday it is near 2.2%. That defies explanation. As the rates are market driven, the market is not reflecting true inflation expectations. In 2003, we didn't have a huge contraction in the banking sector. There was plenty of money to go around....

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I have just enough room for my bond allocation in my tax advantaged accounts. Further, next year I need to start taking RMD's. If I include any REIT's, CCF's or SV in my tax advantaged, I would have to hold some tax free bonds in my taxable account. Do I keep REIT's, etc. or get rid of them? I woul...

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tfb wrote: They don't have to make money from every customer. As long as the whole program generates enough profits, they will be OK with continuing the program.

I'm sure they make plenty of money data mining peoples assets and financial activity. Its really scary/lucrative.

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I think the general public has been brainwashed into thinking that Stocks will outperform bonds. The only reason I have a higher weight in stocks than bonds is for tax purposes. So you're saying that on an after-tax basis, you think your stocks will outperform your bonds? Okay, so does that make yo...

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I forgot to include 20% in currency and weakening dollar funds: MERKX, FDPIX and RWYDX divided equally. [/b] Realizing now that I left out 20%, I'm surprised I received as many thoughtful replies as I did. Bwx I was not aware of and will take a good look at. Thanks. I'm confused about this statemen...

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1. the Smart Grid would bring huge benefits in terms of reliability and flexibility as new energy sources come in I don't think the political issue is about "smart grids". The issue, is wanting to run mega-transmission lines from Across entire states and get subsidies/easements (ie. free ...

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I would imagine the electricity demand of electric cars would build up over a 15 year period, even if generation capacity weren't a constraint. If it is a constraint, it just means it takes a few years longer. I am mystified how people can think that capacity will prevent us arriving at an all-elec...

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My plan is to: *Leave 30 % in a short term T-bill fund (Fidelity’s FDLXX) for now. *Put 30% in five international bond funds: *Put 10% in the general commodity fund PCRDX: (the only one I know of) *Put 10% in the gold etf GLD for insurance against a crash. What is the other 20 percent in? Personall...

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When I installed my system, the state (CA) paid for half. Uh, that would be the taxpayers of the state, not the state. I love solar but find it hard to justify states and the Feds subsidizing personal installations, and requiring utilities to buy back power at non-wholesale rates, therby impacting ...

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I think the general public has been brainwashed into thinking that Stocks will outperform bonds.

The only reason I have a higher weight in stocks than bonds is for tax purposes.

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It's a weird thing. The stuff we ACCUMULATE is deflating (real estate, equities) but the stuff we CONSUME (oil, healthcare, education, food) is inflating. So the net effect is the paltry number reported by the CPI. I don't think we can really look at it as a net effect. If we are talking net-effect...

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gatorman wrote:Interesting paper on using fractal techniques to predict major market downturns.

The problem is that major market downturns are a result of "surprises".

Obviously, if they weren't a surprise, it would already be factored into the prices.

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It goes to show that no asset is safe. Need to diversify bonds.

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Do you have long term care insurance? I would think it is probably much more important for you now than life insurance. And I believe it is better to buy before age 60. jg Does it make sense to have long-term care insurance one is passing a significant estate to a younger wife and/or children? Seem...

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i want to buy a new car and im stuck between these 2, suggestions? comments? im sure within the bogleheads forum lies the knowledgeable automobile person! thanks~! Ah I hate to admit it since I don't want to see too many others on the road before I purchase one. The Accord Coupe. Nissan/infinity se...

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Random Musings wrote:Is it just me, or have the people piled on to the CCF bandwagon just like REIT's before their major demise a while back and so on.......

Tru dat. It will also be interesting to see people boast about DJP instead of PCRIX when TIPs lose value.

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Hi everyone, i've been trying to follow the discussions today on CNBC on whether the fed should raise rates to help curb inflation. I can't understand how a rate hike can help in that capacity. If inflation is being caused by skyrocketting commidities costs how will a rate hike improve those costs?...

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Rick, you are making the mistake of confusing stocks with a direct investment in commodities (or more specifically, commodity futures). Buying a bar of gold is a lot different than buying stock in a company that mines gold. Amen. Its as if Purchasing Goldman Sachs and JPM would suffice instead of p...

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I think inflation will begin to slow if it hasn't already. Banks continue to lower credit lines. As a result less and less money is becoming available. Point being, less money = lower prices. While gas and OJ prices are higher, many fine clothing and electronics are dropping like a rock. I am having...

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It seems pretty obvious that there should be something about personal economics in high school. Wouldn't a chapter called "How People Save for Retirement" be a good fit in a high school economics book? Teach the basics of pensions, 401Ks, Mutual Funds, Indexes, Expense Ratios, compound in...

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Private sector employers are abandoning DB plans because the benefit levels are not sustainable. Since when have CEO's made decisions based on sustainability? It is quite ironic because DB have been cut as a result of more short-minded employees and employers. The proper explanation for cuts in DB ...

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MOBoglehead wrote:I'm no expert on various energy sources, but we need to keep in mind that energy must accomodate economic growth.

Why is it that we need more economic growth? Especially if it cannot be done without the use of more energy and natural resources.

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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/americans-enter-new-cycle-tough/story.aspx?guid=%7B2AD5D9FF%2D408C%2D443E%2DB295%2DF154C2DF194E%7D&dist=msr_17 I thought this was one of the more informative articles around on changing consumer behavior. But what are they buying? According to Information R...

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How do expectations provoke inflation? They don't. Inflation can only be a result of the available money that exists. The only thing greater inflation expectation provokes is a higher demand for income among the working populace. Income of which can only be taken from other segments of the populous.

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I believe that 99% of people with jobs will be working this summer. Even teachers will be getting jobs. With higher gas and a/c prices during the summer, a lot of offices and factories should be providing mandatory vacation time. Corporations / state government should give physical fitness incentiv...

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It's my opinion that too many of my generation are over-educated. No more is a bachelor's degree good enough, everyone "needs" an MBA or advanced degree, just to "stay ahead". All this education costs money, delays one's entering of the workforce and often ends up putting people...

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Off topic,

I think you guys should also consider encrypting your external-hard drives. Ie. if they are stolen or RIAA comes knocking etc.

I found a nice open source site trucrypt.org

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ddb wrote: There's no reason for an arbitrageur to believe that the yields will converge.

That is exactly why it is bogus to use yields as a measure of expected return.

Ie. A junk bond fund of 8% yield does not have 5% higher expected return than a treasury fund of 3%.

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Any predictions for how they will compare in the next 2 to 5 years? BIV (Int-Term Index ETF) currently has a higher yield than BND (Total Bond Index ETF), so BIV has a higher expected future return. - DDB That is totally bogus. If that were true, arbitragers would short BND and long BIV till they h...

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But like any bubble, you don't know when it will burst. Are we at 1998 for the internet/tech bubble or 2000? One could say that the entire US equity market has been one giant bubble the last hundred years. Money has continued to flow in recklessly vs any other investment. Much of the ROI being comp...

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I guess its the new CEO speaking.

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In my opinion, the equity risk premium is not only because of what you call capitulation risk (higher volatility) but also because of the risk that you might not have a nice long-run return EVEN IF you hold on through thick and thin. Witness a tech stock investor in early 2000 or a Japanese stock i...

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http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2008/05/03/clearly-mitsubishis-new-electric-i-ev-has-admirers/ It looks like electric cars will be coming onto the scene within 10 years. Mitsubishi already has electric cars going 80-100 miles on a single charge. All I need is a nuclear battery in my sub-divisi...

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I use virgin-mobil. It costs me $60 a year. I have to add $15 into my account every 3 months. Yet, my account continues to cumulate in balance. The only time I really use it is when I'm traveling or lost. I believe it costs me 20 cents a minute. Once I awhile when I am living away from home, I can f...

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I've read many of the arguments by the experts on this board and elsewhere in favor of adding a small amount of this stuff for diversification and portfolio insurance purposes and they all seem very convincing. But now it seems people are piling into CCFs simply because they are going up. Isn't tha...

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My point about using ETFs is that they are almost always cheaper than their respective mutual fund cousins. Also, we're not really going to complain because one ETF is three basis points higher, are we? I think it is irrational to believe that the expected return of a diversified stock portfolio ca...

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Very few journalists have studied law or business or economics. Many -- if not most -- financial journalists lack graduate degrees in economics or finance. Unlike us, who also mostly lack any credentials, yet are perfectly qualified to comment on these matters. :D The problem at large is that, &quo...

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tokyoleone wrote: I wonder if anyone can explain what the (supposed) benefit of buying contracts over differing maturities might be.

I think the benefit was for back-testing purposes.

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Very few journalists have studied law or business or economics. Many -- if not most -- financial journalists lack graduate degrees in economics or finance. That does make complete sense. If a person can write well and had a formal education in law or business, they would be partner for a major law ...

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From what I have read: - there was no obvious housing price bubble in Texas: housing prices rose along with incomes, largely - Texas was hit hard in 2001-02 (Enron) and has been slowly recovering - oilfield services, which is a major global industry, is a Texan centre of excellence, and it is obvio...

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Texas has been great. For a moment, I actually thought we might scathe by. Collection of sales tax went up 7% YoY last month. I think a lot of that had to do with early daylight savings. I do see a lot of people feeling the pinch though. All my regular service workers, ie. barbers, waiters, etc have...

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How does this "un-diversify" a portfolio? Using ETF's this strategy could very easily produce a reduction in expense ratio. Sorry I did not read your portfolio #3. The general issues still apply. #1) Your portfolio possibly excluding large-caps that do not classify as growth or value. #2)...

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Having the ability to rebalance, as I've demonstrated, can create hundreds of thousands of dollars for the investor who is willing to spend a little time and slice and dice his portfolio. This strategy un-diversifies one's portfolio yet does not produce a reduction in expense ratio. It is counter p...

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There's been some excellent returns over the years with mid-cap funds, yet they're seldomed mentioned as portfolio cores. Other than some inclusion in TSM and REITs, why are they mostly off the radar of boglehead portfolios? A few of us call it "chasing". 2ndly, Small caps are bound to lo...

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Re: REIT's, CCF's, SV, Bonds with limited room in tax advant

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