Search found 558 matches

by preserve
Thu Dec 25, 2008 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are we not in a classic deflationary period?
Replies: 11
Views: 2924

Re: How are we not in a classic deflationary period?

I was just wondering what exactly defines when we are in a "deflationary period"..just like 2 quarters of negative GDP growth we are in recession.. is there a set logic to when it's called? . There is nothing "exact" about it. Most inflationary / deflationary terms are used by t...
by preserve
Thu Dec 25, 2008 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 27 Year Old Newbie Investor Seeks Advice on Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 2966

Re: 27 Year Old Investor Seeks Portfolio Advice

Debt: Student Loan (18k at 2.9%), Auto (8.5k @ 5.5%), soon to be mortgage, (180k @ 5%), I close on Feb 16th, 2009 That info right there is the Key. You have 20k in assets, but will incur 210k in loans. That is a lot of leverage. Your number one concern should be debt. The main reason to invest at t...
by preserve
Thu Dec 25, 2008 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) rollover questions
Replies: 1
Views: 815

Re: 403(b) rollover questions

I have some questions about a 403(b) account and its rollover into an IRA and would be grateful if somebody could help. My fiancee is a teacher in IL and her 403(b) account options are unbelievably horrible. She will be leaving her job soon and relocating. She does not get a match from her current ...
by preserve
Thu Dec 25, 2008 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: corporate bond are better than stock ????
Replies: 2
Views: 1178

#1) Misleading article. Anytime people start mentioning "valuations", it is all speculation. Investment Bankers are desperately seeking capital for municipalities and businesses right now. Guess who they are trying to tap.... The folks reeling from the stock market. #2) No "liquid&quo...
by preserve
Sun Dec 21, 2008 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: crazy yield curve
Replies: 21
Views: 4026

I'm not taking risk, I'm hedging it. That is precisely what people say before their institutions collapse, and they get hauled off to jail. Quite ironically, it often involves extended treasuries and their derivatives. If you are truly managing risk, I assume you own assets in multiple asset classe...
by preserve
Sun Dec 21, 2008 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: crazy yield curve
Replies: 21
Views: 4026

For what it's worth, David Swensen (of Yale endowment fame) recommends long treasuries as a deflation hedge. He writes about it in his Unconventional Success . Your lingo has changed. Yes, long treasuries are a hedge on deflation or expected deflation. No, they are not a hedge on recessions / depre...
by preserve
Sun Dec 21, 2008 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: crazy yield curve
Replies: 21
Views: 4026

Long treasuries tend to do well in terrible times. In good times (or stagflation) they have much interest rate and inflation risk. Other investments tend to do better, and jobs are more secure, in better times. If you need an investment that will tend to do well in depression/recession, long treasu...
by preserve
Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: crazy yield curve
Replies: 21
Views: 4026

Actually LT bonds and zeros (which I've recommended many times) provide insurance against depressions/recessions. It's proven an excellent strategy this year. I wouldn't own them in the current environment, but if/when the yield curve normalizes again, I'd jump back in. Investments that pay off whe...
by preserve
Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: crazy yield curve
Replies: 21
Views: 4026

If I were to ever buy the fund, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't devote more than a quarter of my bond allocation to it (with about 50% of my bonds in TIPS). I'm only 15% in bonds at the moment, so it wouldn't make any real difference at this point anyway. These bonds have an average duration of 24.3 yea...
by preserve
Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Single-cup coffee maker?
Replies: 44
Views: 9493

Re: Single-cup coffee maker?

1) I drink latte/espresso, but don't know how to make them. So, Starbucks knows me well. 2) I don't know much about coffee makers. Is "Coffee Maker" even the right term - or should I be asking about "Espresso Machine" especially if those can make Latte's? 3) I want simplicity! S...
by preserve
Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the investment grade bond companies are not defaulting...
Replies: 10
Views: 2524

Re: If the investment grade bond companies are not defaultin

If the investment grade bond companies are not defaulting, and if interest rates arent rising, and in fact going lower, why is the NAV going down? Is it just that theres more risk involved now and people think they might default so they werent happy with 5% yield due to higher risk and same reward,...
by preserve
Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: crazy yield curve
Replies: 21
Views: 4026

Re: crazy yield curve

This from WSJ's data base: 1 month: (0.041) 2 year: 0.753 5 year: 1.490 10 year: (2.203) 30 year: (2.653) I was nosing around online because I noticed that Vanguard's long term treasury fund is up over 20% ytd. (Sadly, I own intermediate term index.) Anyway, I've heard mention of a possible bubble ...
by preserve
Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric cars
Replies: 606
Views: 139311

What there will need to be is a 'hot swap' power pack swapping facility so if you need a quick recharge, you drive to your service station and get one. Plans for this sort of infrastructure in Denmark and Israel have already begun. California already signed a deal with the Isaeli company for this s...
by preserve
Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NO RMD for 2009 ?
Replies: 28
Views: 5389

As a part of the economic crisis, it's hard to figure the motivation for this tax holiday -- yet another tax cut for the wealthy. Most people who have large tax deferred accounts that they don't need to spend are wealthy. (Half of Americans in retirement rely on Social Security as their primary inc...
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The shorting of the Century..not for everybody
Replies: 16
Views: 3080

Re: The shorting of the Century..not for everybody

I know that this is very much not "Bogleheads" material, but has anyone thought about shorting the 10 year Treasury. It is artificially kept at the absolute lowest yield 'ever" (I think). How long can it last? Comments, Erwin #1) Lets say your a super guru, and are correct with 55% o...
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing a refi?
Replies: 16
Views: 2992

I'd do everything in my power to pay off the mortgage!!

People with mortgages are paying way too much interest cost in the current climate.
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Valuing stocks by comparing P/E to 10 Yr. Treasury?
Replies: 3
Views: 929

Re: Valuing stocks by comparing P/E to 10 Yr. Treasury?

Two articles in this week's Forbes compare the 10 year treasury yield to the P/E. As of Friday, the 10yr T-Bill yields 2.67%. (The current dividend yield of the S&P 500 is 2.96%, the first time it has exceeded the T-Bill yield since 1958. Of course dividends may fall further depending on the ec...
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best time to buy a house
Replies: 26
Views: 4605

Re: Best time to buy a house

I own a house now. It is paid for. I am thinking about buying a nicer house to live in, renting out the one I live in now and then selling it some day when home values go up again. I don't think there is any hurry to buy. I don't know if home prices will keep going down but I doubt they will go up ...
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 12
Views: 3063

Total bond market should be good enough. Tips seem to be a waste of paper work.

I do like BWX though. Un-hedged foreign sovereign bonds. Expensive, but offer diversification like nothing else.
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 403(b) Hell
Replies: 11
Views: 2872

FYI:
In May, I was told Vanguard would be discontinued for my 403b.

Just last week, I looked at the list of available 403b choices, and they have allowed people be to be grand-fathered into Vanguard.

Sounds like Vanguard, signed some ISA's at the last minute..
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health Savings Accounts: Awesome Theory - Garbage Execution
Replies: 86
Views: 15652

This is the first year my employer will offer an HSA option. I am disappointed that my employer contributes less to High Deductible plan, as opposed to PPO and HMO plans, yet gives me no perks if I select it. Ie. I would be saving them money for selecting it, yet get no compensation. Maybe next yea...
by preserve
Sun Dec 07, 2008 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health Savings Accounts: Awesome Theory - Garbage Execution
Replies: 86
Views: 15652

This is the first year my employer will offer an HSA option. I am disappointed that my employer contributes less to High Deductible plan, as opposed to PPO and HMO plans, yet gives me no perks if I select it. Ie. I would be saving them money for selecting it, yet get no compensation. Maybe next year...
by preserve
Fri Nov 28, 2008 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The myths of car use and maintenance
Replies: 48
Views: 10333

The article is correct except for one issue: engine warm up. As a former Captain of two nuclear powered submarines I know a thing or two about machinery warm up. In cold (less than 32F) let the car idle at least 30-45 seconds before driving off. In really cold weather (less than 0F) a full minute t...
by preserve
Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The myths of car use and maintenance
Replies: 48
Views: 10333

Sam I Am wrote: Not having a car payment for a few years really allows you to live better, concentrating on assets that appreciate (well, usually).
Or assets that preserve our wealth ;-)
by preserve
Mon Nov 17, 2008 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Electric Car is here
Replies: 15
Views: 3093

The price of oil per "barrel" may be low, but driving on Gas will be expensive.

--political portion deleted--. It will be expensive to drive gas powered vehicles.

So no, the electric car is not dead.
by preserve
Sat Nov 15, 2008 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did your elementary/high school have a tough grading scale?
Replies: 31
Views: 6665

I like the AP test grading scale. 1 you know nothing. 2 you were awake. 3 you can apply 1/2 of it 4 You'll be able to use it in the future. 5 Your ready to learn something harder. The narrow separation between a passing grade of 70 and Top score of 100, make it much too difficult for the top to reac...
by preserve
Sun Nov 09, 2008 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does a leveraged buy-out affect an employee?
Replies: 5
Views: 1462

Re: How does a leveraged buy-out affect an employee?

I am wondering if any of you out there have experienced working for a small business (we are in the civil engineering realm with less than 200 employees total, multiple offices in a handful of different states) who is purchased by a leveraged buy-out from a private capital management firm? The comp...
by preserve
Sun Nov 09, 2008 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If Markets are Efficient, Renting Beats Buying?
Replies: 32
Views: 6470

Re: If Markets are Efficient, Renting Beats Buying?

Doesn't this prove that renting is always better than buying? No. A lot of it is determined by your wealth, tax-bracket, and mobility. The more income, wealth, and less mobile you are the more important it is to own a house. Income -> more tax advantage Wealth-> Homestead protection during bankrupt...
by preserve
Sun Nov 09, 2008 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA/HDHP and prescription drugs
Replies: 6
Views: 2531

Re: HSA/HDHP and prescription drugs

I turned my regular PPO into high-deductible one with 3000/6000 deductible, but my expenses are mostly dental routine checkups and $5 per month on Rx. And I get employer contributions too. I guess PPO is the better choice for you given the higher deductibles and annual contribution limits for HSA. ...
by preserve
Sun Nov 09, 2008 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CCF's... Why is no one using etf's?
Replies: 10
Views: 2767

Re: CCF's... Why is no one using etf's?

WildDog wrote: Any reason why?
PCRIX has been heavily talked about because they had been outperforming the commodities market due to their over exposure in longer-duration TIPS.
by preserve
Sun Nov 09, 2008 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can one really blame anyone for bailing out?
Replies: 25
Views: 5775

Re: Can one really blame anyone for bailing out?

I am almost sure that once the credit markets have stabilized and the worst part of the crisis is over I will probably have missed a very significant market appreciation. Stability is a relative term. We can still purchase and sell securities instantaneously, much faster than we did just 5 years ago.
by preserve
Sat Nov 01, 2008 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Investment Grade Bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 3060

Re: Vanguard Investment Grade Bonds

YDNAL wrote:[
AFAICT there have been 0 defaults in investment grade. Besides, the Interm I/G fund has bonds with grades as low as Ba's. Know what you purchase before you purchase it.
Isn't that because Vanguard sells them before they default ;-)
by preserve
Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So this is a Liquidity Trap
Replies: 5
Views: 1867

larryswedroe wrote:PROFITS, the cost of cash is rising daily as the yield curve steepens--that is the idea. Banks don't make money sitting on tbills yielding 0.
Exactly. They are getting profits 2 fold. Higher "real" interest rates, and bailout money ontop of that.
by preserve
Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So this is a Liquidity Trap
Replies: 5
Views: 1867

So this is a Liquidity Trap

As the banks continue to hoard more money, the government has continued to reward these same banks with cash and collateral.

So what incentive is there for a bank to actually loan money?
by preserve
Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax-Managed Intl or FTSE All World Ex-US ?
Replies: 3
Views: 1027

Re: Tax-Managed Intl or FTSE All World Ex-US ?

I'm planning to do some tax loss harvesting, and will be swapping out of the Europe, Pacific and Emerging Market indexes. If we have a market rebound during the wash sale period I'm willing to stick with the new fund. I can add to Emerging Markets in my IRA. Any thoughts on the relative merits or d...
by preserve
Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of Commodity CCFs
Replies: 42
Views: 7927

Re: Death of Commodity CCFs

Theory is a terrific form of expression for the academic-minded individual. Reality is the school yard bully that beats up on theory and forces it to evolve into a new theory. At least, that's what Yogi Berra told me. :D Regards, Landy Those "theoretical" minded banking professors have be...
by preserve
Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My daughter got a nose pierce! I am not happy.
Replies: 142
Views: 41920

#1) She needs to grow up.

#2) She's not going to grow up till she starts making her own decisions.
by preserve
Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Efficient frontier for casual clothes
Replies: 23
Views: 6239

$15 white tennis shoes at costco.

Nothing like being able to walk around with perfectly white tennis shoes. Surprisingly I can keep them bright white for at least 6 months.
by preserve
Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds -- why did they fall Wednesday?
Replies: 8
Views: 2143

Eureka wrote:It's getting hard to make money.
If your not losing money, your gaining purchasing power and not paying capital gains tax.
by preserve
Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SPDR Lehman Intl Treasury Bond (BWX)
Replies: 10
Views: 2434

I'm with valuethinker.

BWX offers great international diversification that cannot be provided by any other asset.

I don't plan to ever switch out unless, a new product comes out with a lower expense ratio.
by preserve
Sun Oct 05, 2008 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Now Yielding 2.62% (Now Over 3%)
Replies: 14
Views: 3784

The reasoning being that cutting your dividend is a signal, and no bank will want to signal that it is in trouble. But if the government decrees it, then bank management will be able to say 'we have no choice'. It would be a stealth way of recapitalising the banking system. While reduction in divid...
by preserve
Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling a 403b to an IRA
Replies: 13
Views: 3638

Re: Rolling a 403b to an IRA

If you can't withdraw, you can't roll over. Period. In this case presumably the money can stay either in a Vanguard 403(b) or with another 403(b) annuity or custodian. Thank you, that does make sense. The part that doesn't make sense is that districts are saying the accounts at non-approved firms s...
by preserve
Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plastic "Silverware" question
Replies: 20
Views: 5071

You left out the option.

"No, I don't use plastic silverware".
by preserve
Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling a 403b to an IRA
Replies: 13
Views: 3638

Re: Rolling a 403b to an IRA

When December rolls around and my contributions to my Vanguard 403b are finished, can I roll it into an IRA? Not unless you're 59 1/2. LH, I believe you are talking about "distribution" eligibility not rollover. In this particular case the school districts are forcing the termination of t...
by preserve
Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should a 21 yr old's IRA hold only (diversified) equities?
Replies: 15
Views: 3090

Re: Should a 21 yr old's IRA hold only (diversified) equitie

Looking at Malkiel's book, for a 20ish person, he suggests bonds (20%), cash (5%), real estate (10%), stocks (65%). I think the allocation you mention is very good for a 21 year old. Two other goals I would look at. 1) Keep expense ratio down. 2) Keep taxes down. (ie. load up on bonds and reits in ...
by preserve
Sat Aug 23, 2008 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock duration and interest rate sensitivity
Replies: 19
Views: 5496

Re: Stock duration and interest rate sensitivity

. To the gurus: Are these true statements? (i.e. is my understanding correct) 1. Growth stocks have longer duration than value stocks Interesting question. 1. "growth stocks" are more likely to fail sooner than other stocksl. 2. The high-payout level should occur in less than 10 years for...
by preserve
Fri Aug 22, 2008 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS..Inflation Expectations at Lowest Level in 5 Year
Replies: 54
Views: 10018

It is precisely in order to avoid the distortions of asset bubbles that owner's equivalent rent is used. Likewise you wouldn't want to use the soaring price of Cisco in 2000 to measure inflation. It is simply another angle. I am sure we can agree that the "owner's equivalent rent" is not ...
by preserve
Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS..Inflation Expectations at Lowest Level in 5 Year
Replies: 54
Views: 10018

Food for thought .
Data compiled by Lombard Street Research shows that the M3 ''broad money" aggregates fell by almost $50bn (£26.8bn) in July, the biggest one-month fall since modern records began in 1959.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... con119.xml
by preserve
Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scottrade - Good/Bad/Ugly?
Replies: 50
Views: 16410

kramer wrote: Hi, can you explain why drawing checks on your account is safer?
Having it sent to a physical mailing address on file is big added level on security.

I did double check the website. Unfortunately, Scottrade offers "wiring" of money, so yes, it is not any safer.
by preserve
Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric cars
Replies: 606
Views: 139311

Agree Eminent Domain is always a problem. But airports, roads, power plants-- all these are tremendous blotches on the landscape. But we have them, because we deem them necessities. Yes, "deemed necessary" is popular term among greedy folks that like to take away land, air, civil rights. ...