Search found 558 matches

by preserve
Sat Feb 28, 2009 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ETFs Distorting The Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 1269

I am strongly against inversed leveraged ETF's. These ETF's are primarily developed for retail traders and negatively impact unleveraged long term investors. Why should someone who wishes to short the market be allowed to do it with zero regard to the rules in place, ie actually borrowing all the s...
by preserve
Sat Feb 28, 2009 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ETFs Distorting The Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 1269

Re: Are ETFs Distorting The Market?

Is the unintended consequence of leveraged ETF's market distortion/volatility? Interested to hear your thoughts... While I will probably never invest in leveraged ETF's, I find the topic a little funny. Many equities are leveraged, more than 3x, 4x, but I don't see writers complaining about that...
by preserve
Sat Feb 28, 2009 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are Investment Grade bonds too risky right now?
Replies: 32
Views: 6376

The point I never hear anyone talk about in these sorts of threads is the relative higher priority bonds have over stock in any insolvency situation. A majority of people rainbarrel what is in books and magazines. It is not in books and magazines because professors don't talk about it. Professors g...
by preserve
Thu Feb 26, 2009 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone else find 401k/IRA limits ridiculous?
Replies: 99
Views: 13888

Can we can agree that the goal of these retirement plans is to get more people to save for their own retirement? No can do. The goal of the retirement plans is 2 fold. #1 So walstreet can collect your money, just so you may have the privileged of paying lower taxes. #2 Give a different effective-ta...
by preserve
Tue Feb 24, 2009 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: lessons from Japan's lost decade
Replies: 7
Views: 1759

CaptMidnight wrote:
The lost decade in Japan was followed by a boom for a few years and now they are back in deflation. That seems pretty important.
I think that boom had a lot to do with US's negative savings rate at the time.
by preserve
Tue Feb 24, 2009 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: lessons from Japan's lost decade
Replies: 7
Views: 1759

If you think about it. We already actually had the great depression. We also had a flat period in the markets from the1960's to 1982. The lost decade is fitting because the Japanese government bailed out businesses that could not sustain themselves and should have gone bankrupt. They prevented &quo...
by preserve
Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Internet Searches, You are being watched
Replies: 7
Views: 1988

This is a temporary solution.

https://ssl.scroogle.org/

Yes, our searches can be held against us in the court of law.
by preserve
Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Foreclosure Effect on Credit Rating???
Replies: 11
Views: 2263

It will usually affect it at least 6 years. Who knows what the new foreclosure/bankruptcy legislation is going to entail. It is not a free ride either. Depending on state, it will affect car insurance rate, home owners insurance rate, job hiring (background check). HR can legally reduce employee rel...
by preserve
Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold as a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 13
Views: 2403

Re: Gold as a hedge against inflation?

Anyone have any insights into whether gold has a place as a deversifyer against inflation that may result from the huge amount of printing of money going on now. If gold is a worthwile investment, how to purchase. Gold etf's or physical gold, or.... fredd I wouldn't call it a diversifier against in...
by preserve
Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AA and Bogleheaded Philosophy?
Replies: 21
Views: 4056

Re: What is wrong with AA and Bogleheaded Philosophy?

In my thinking, AA has become something absolute, and I would like to see the strongest criticisms of it. Or are there really none? A big flaw is that all these "assets" we have in our asset allocation are artificial constructs. A coup of the government tomorrow would make everything go p...
by preserve
Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA
Replies: 40
Views: 11460

Re: USAA

Having previously endorsed and recommended USAA here for a variety of services, I now advise caution. Interesting. I found it very strange that USAA recently expanded its membership base. It appears as if they are in need of some "deposits". Not a good sign for an insurance company....
by preserve
Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Fed cut rates below zero?
Replies: 20
Views: 3676

Re: Will the Fed cut rates below zero?

Since the economy (still) seems to be in trouble and our interest rates are already at ~0%, I was wondering if the Fed might consider another cut to -0.25% or -0.50%. Is there any good reason that negative interest rates are not possible, at least in theory? What about in practice? I'm interested t...
by preserve
Sun Feb 01, 2009 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dell Mini 9
Replies: 28
Views: 5108

indexfundfan, It was a refurbished one. I got it on Thursday and it's great. It runs XP and Office 2007 pretty well and I haven't even gotten the 2gb RAM upgrade installed yet. The 8gb SSD is probably going to be an issue but I may just use a USB or SDHC drive in the meantime while I wait for SSDs ...
by preserve
Sun Feb 01, 2009 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you buy a GE bond??
Replies: 15
Views: 2808

Re: Would you buy a GE bond??

I would ask yourself if an extra 100 bps, assuming you can't get the Navy CU rate, is enough to take GE's credit risk for 8 years. For me the answer would be no. That is not really an appropriate question to ask an individual investor. There is no way we can possibly judge whether the 100bps is wor...
by preserve
Sun Feb 01, 2009 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is anyone spending?
Replies: 55
Views: 8482

My friends are out right now having a sushi dinner and seeing Slumdog Millionaire. I passed. I can't believe that just a month ago I wouldn't have thought twice about dropping $40 on a nice evening with friends. Instead, $5 frozen pizza and basketball on TV. Very interesting. I too have absolutely ...
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bankruptcy in america
Replies: 6
Views: 1313

It may have been government who was taking all my hard earned money in the past, but not today - it is private business that is extorting all available money anybody has to give them, both current funds, and all future funds. n42 Extortion is still extortion. Whether it be by the government or by p...
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you buy a GE bond??
Replies: 15
Views: 2808

donocash wrote:Why not buy VFICX instead?
I thought the same thing. But it appears he wants "non-callable" bonds.
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is anyone spending?
Replies: 55
Views: 8482

Re: Is anyone spending?

Do we all go to extremes and develop herd behavior when it comes to the economy? (Or is it just me?) Is anyone still having fun? KarenR Online research has made it a lot easier for me to spend on higher ticket items. I've pretty much quit buying cheap disposable products. The irony is that since pr...
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you buy a GE bond??
Replies: 15
Views: 2808

Re: Would you buy a GE bond??

What is the consensus of this forum given the current situation, specifically GE's which may lose its AAA rating? Erwin The yield is the rating... So the debt is really what I call "investment grade". It is clearly a gamble, yet if your not investing more than 5% of your fixed income into...
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Digital records preservation worries archivists
Replies: 12
Views: 2358

It sure will be tough for future archaeologists to find much evidence of post-Y2K writing and communication. Wikipedia should start a project to archive everything onto clay tablets. Isn't that the beauty of archaeology? Who'd want to be an archaeologist if everything was laid out for them in a sil...
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bankruptcy in america
Replies: 6
Views: 1313

Re: bankruptcy in america

Tax payers must give Wall Street all the money they need, or else some undefined armagetta thing might happen - this sounds like extortion to me. The Sixteenth Amendment was extortion. If they couldn't collect our taxes, there would be very little motivation to break our bill of rights. Ie. wiretap...
by preserve
Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How does 0% Capital Gains rule affect Tax Loss Harversting?
Replies: 4
Views: 1499

Re: How does 0% Capital Gains rule affect Tax Loss Harversti

If I sell my Citibank shares and realize the $1,850 loss this year, how would approx $800 of Long Term Cap Gains from a mutual fund that I've owned for years affect that tax loss? I would hold off on mixing gains and losses if you qualify for Zero tax capital gains. 1. Since you have realized gains...
by preserve
Fri Jan 30, 2009 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dell Mini 9
Replies: 28
Views: 5108

by preserve
Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forex investment Arguments for or against
Replies: 28
Views: 4819

You can get the same returns essentially risk free in a MMF. 1. There are no such things as risk-free rates or risk-free currencies. 2. It is nearly impossible for the returns to be the same. I'm not advocating active trading in any manner. I am simply pointing out that you guys are making some ser...
by preserve
Tue Jan 27, 2009 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forex investment Arguments for or against
Replies: 28
Views: 4819

yobria wrote: No, the expected return from holding forex is zero. The return from stocks and bonds is positive.
Nick
Do you seriously think traders keep their money in paper or non-interest bearing accounts?
by preserve
Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard closes Treasury money market funds to new accounts
Replies: 4
Views: 3175

Yup interesting stuff.

I wonder if they are closing it because they fear the Expense ratio will be higher than interest earned?

Or

They are desperately seeking Prime-money market clients.
by preserve
Mon Jan 26, 2009 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forex investment Arguments for or against
Replies: 28
Views: 4819

Joe S. wrote: Forex is what we call a "zero sum" game.
Forex trading is no more a "zero sum" game than any other active trading.

Forex traders still get interest earned/present value of money, just like stock and bond traders.
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric cars
Replies: 606
Views: 139311

Re: Five electric cars you can buy in 2009

Yup. We should be driving our electric cars to the train station.
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric cars
Replies: 606
Views: 139311

Requiring the sunlight to fall on the car that's going to use it seems like a large and unnecessary constraint. The Prius is a large and unnecessary constraint!!! When I first saw the Prius in Tokyo I asked my friend, "So why don't they just take the train or walk?" The simple response. &...
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So Who's Buying?
Replies: 72
Views: 13303

gkaplan wrote:I max my 401(k) contributions.
Yes I max out also.

Some days it feels like the government is allowing me to give tax-deductible donations to all the CEO's of America. Lucky me. At least, they can't exercise their options now.
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Print Media Dead?
Replies: 34
Views: 6327

Re: Is Print Media Dead?

BTW, I'm not making it as a question rated by a poll. I want to know what your personal reasons pro/con against print media... - Ron The current print advertising model is bad. They have very little accuracy in reaching their target audience. Even the USAToday, WSJ web sites are very poor. They sho...
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forex investment Arguments for or against
Replies: 28
Views: 4819

FOREX trading is not about making money!!! Its about diversification.

Any institution that chooses not to be in Forex is choosing not to be diversified by one of the easiest/cheapest methods possible.
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I crazy to buy a house now?
Replies: 16
Views: 3563

Re: Am I crazy to buy a house now?

I moved back to North Florida 6 mos ago and I've been renting and saving for a home purchase. I actually have a lease on the rental house that runs through mid June. My wife is getting really antsy and wants to go ahead and buy something. I'm worried that home prices may continue to decline another...
by preserve
Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: More TIPS allows longer nominal Bond duration?
Replies: 4
Views: 1655

Re: More TIPS allows longer nominal Bond duration?

Tonen wrote: is it sensible to assume that a higher allocation to ILB's allows use of a convenient, market linked duration for my nominal bond alloction?
No. Duration risk and inflation risk are two different characteristics.

One is affected by future interest rates, the other by future inflation.
by preserve
Tue Jan 20, 2009 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9938

The real issue in all these cases is do you have any idea what the company is producing and what they can sell it for and is there enough transparancy to understand it. Will it be around long term? Now please apply that statements towards Equity. Equity has minimal transparency. Worse, there is no ...
by preserve
Mon Jan 19, 2009 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9938

Now if you really want to own some REAL assets in real commodities then buy some real companies that make things like oil or coal or copper or gold Equity is one of the least tangible assets around by very definition of Bankruptcy and Accounting laws. The irony is that Equity are Non-Collateralized...
by preserve
Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9938

You're a career regulator, what's the incentive to keep up with all the new financial products that are coming out? #1) Your calling them incompetent for understanding their incentive structure? #2) There are plenty of people on capital hill that know whats going on. Take the time to talk to a few ...
by preserve
Sun Jan 18, 2009 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIPS spreads indicate falling prices over next five years
Replies: 20
Views: 4030

I think it all depends on how you define "better"? Yes I agree. I was strictly looking at it from the family unit stand-point. It is truly hard to call things as technological "advancements" if parents are spending less time with their children as a result of such innovations.
by preserve
Sat Jan 17, 2009 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TIPS spreads indicate falling prices over next five years
Replies: 20
Views: 4030

provided you can keep your job, and have a position with guaranteed pay raises, several years of deflation seems pretty sweet. or am I missing something? Theoretically that should be the case. Ie. With technological advancements, we should be living in a world where we work the same amount of hours...
by preserve
Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9938

grayfox wrote:In my opinion any manipulation in oil prices is a serious crime.
Crime? There is no way, you cannot manipulate prices.

Every decision the government makes effects energy prices one way or another.
by preserve
Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's New Global Bond Index
Replies: 5
Views: 2197

Jagman wrote: If the Global Bond Index was available to me, I would make it 25% of my bond portfolio. The remainder would be 50% Vanguard's intermediate bond index fund and 25% Vanguard's TIPS fund.
There is the etf BWX
by preserve
Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: total bond market
Replies: 4
Views: 1497

TBM is for us folks that try to diversify. TBM is not for uber-smart people that use terms such as "hedge" like Maddoff.
by preserve
Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam
Replies: 61
Views: 9938

Re: 60-Minutes: Commodity Futures Scam

CBS 60 Minutes story suggests that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs had more to do with the commodity price spike in 4th quarter 2007 and 1st quarter 2008. There was no "demand crunch" yet the prices of commodity futures shot to the moon. Does this "asset class" belong in anyone...
by preserve
Sat Jan 03, 2009 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage Account
Replies: 22
Views: 5011

What I meant was if I have a Roth IRA Vanguard mutual funds account and decide I want to add ETFs or stocks to my portfolio, could I transfer the account to VBS? Yes, in fact you can have vanguard funds and VBS in the same Roth account. I would call or email vanguard, and they will give you details.
by preserve
Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why risk management in banks goes wrong
Replies: 6
Views: 1681

cjking wrote:Surely programmers/coders are not the ones making qualitative decisions about how to measure risk?
I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?

Most of the "quants" were not hired to measure risk. They were hired to sell risk.
by preserve
Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slicing and Dicing Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 2955

I would be interested in why you think 1) Shorter durations are more risky than longer durations? 2) Why unexpected inflation insurance is more risky then no insurance? 3) Why negative convexity is not a risky factor? 1) I agree that is generally the case. 2) I don't think we can make conclusions a...
by preserve
Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slicing and Dicing Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 2955

Re: Slicing and Dicing Bonds

eurowizard wrote: Was it just a coincidence that in rough economic times the spread between corporate and treasuries widened while the correlation between all equity positions narrowed?
There are no rules. If you think there are, walstreet will gladly disprove you and take your money.
by preserve
Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slicing and Dicing Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 2955

Risk factors: 1) No maturities greater then ten years. 2) TIPS are a replacement for nominal treasuries. Not an addition. 3) A lower allocation to mortgage related securities because of negative convexity (not the current crisis.) Ouch. It appears to me that you've increased your risk by taking tho...
by preserve
Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Superior alternative to Gold - get Solar Modules
Replies: 8
Views: 1854

You also have to own your own roof, and have a backyard. Big reason I decided to choose a house over condo.

--
Valuethinker wrote: Forecast is for prices to halve by 2012, by the way.
Price of electricity will also go up as a result of carbon tax type policies.
by preserve
Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why risk management in banks goes wrong
Replies: 6
Views: 1681

Overly generalized article.

#1 There aren't thousands of qualified mathematicians.

#2 The article writer is confusing programmers/coders with mathematicians.