Search found 265 matches

by jbranx
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing help
Replies: 7
Views: 927

Re: investing help

Thank you for the advise, I will have to invest the 100,000 in a tax efficient fund, possibly a total stock index fund and with the stock market so high now I have been apprehensive to invest. I do think I need to redo my retirement funds and maybe consolidate them. What would your advise be in the...
by jbranx
Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: American Family Insurance
Replies: 3
Views: 665

Re: American Family Insurance

I had American Family for several years. No problems until the local agent retired and the new agent turned out not to be very capable of managing the office. Lots of issues getting service until the person was replaced. Never filed any claims so I can't comment on that. However, suggest you google ...
by jbranx
Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing help
Replies: 7
Views: 927

Re: investing help

Congrats on being debt free! I think you have too many funds to easily figure out how to arrive at your desired allocations. Fidelity Four in One Index breaks down as 25% international, 15% bonds, and the remainder two domestic stock index funds at 48% large and 12% extended (mid/small). If you look...
by jbranx
Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 5736

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

I would guess the situation is well priced into IL bonds, however, there could be a selling crescendo if one of the ratings agencies declares the bonds 'junk" since many institutions/trust depts. forbid junk-rated paper in their portfolios. I see that a lot of the closed-end leveraged funds run by N...
by jbranx
Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?
Replies: 37
Views: 11452

Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

Taylor, I've got your question in the mix and thank you to all the others. jbranx, thanks for the thoughtful questions. VictoriaF, you're input is always welcome. Keep 'um coming. TOM You're welcome, Tom. Here's number 12 Dr. Bernstein, can you discuss your latest thinking on rebalancing benefits, ...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation. (Total World)
Replies: 23
Views: 4190

Re: International allocation. (Total World)

I think your logic is very sound. I have legacy holdings with gains from startup in 1999 of Fidelity Four In One Index that I don't want to sell in taxable. Fido has upped the international to 25% and lowered bonds to 15% over time. I own VT Total World for the same reasons you state. I just do a ca...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 12975

Re: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

This too is a random walk! I'd make sure in "marketing" myself as a good prospective BH-type mate that I wasn't making it sound like a joyless, monastery like existence until you reached the magic financial number. Sounding too one-dimensional could be a put-off. A spouse who has high earnings poten...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages of Indexing Besides Low Cost
Replies: 14
Views: 1988

Advantages of Indexing Besides Low Cost

It is well established that low-cost index funds and ETFs outperform about 75-80% of active managers, the lower cost being the primary determinant of the outperformance. If, however, the outperformance from lower costs was not an investor preference, are there other reasons to own only index funds. ...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs Active funds
Replies: 36
Views: 3149

Re: Passive vs Active funds

Doc, the topic OP asked is re active vs. passive performance, so to accurately compare the two, one has to know the real performance of active, thus eliminating the survivor bias. I've read the SPIVA reports since the first one 15 years ago, and never seen S&P say, therefore, "buy S&P funds." They r...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive vs Active funds
Replies: 36
Views: 3149

Re: Passive vs Active funds

One of the bigger issues with active manager data on performance is "survivorship bias," ie, all the ugly funds are closed/merged, thus leaving only very beautiful funds. The Investment Company Institute discovered "Lake Wobegon" before Garrison was born. I bought my first mutual fund (IDS Small Gro...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend fund choice
Replies: 11
Views: 1627

Re: Dividend fund choice

VYM is classified by V. as large value; VIG as large blend. The quality factor that is used for VIG is raising the dividend for ten consecutive years, a fairly tough screen, but nothing as tough as the S&P Dividend Aristocrats (SDY and NOBL). The VIG is the old Mergent indices that were acquired by ...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Inter. or Total Muni [VTEAX - Tax-Exempt Bond Index]
Replies: 18
Views: 3318

Re: Vanguard - Int. Muni or Total Muni

Oh, I see Zen. That is the mutual fund version of VTEB. It's the S&P national index that I said MUB also tracks. No worry about ATM or PR bonds, but since it's an outside index, you aren't getting Vanguard's expertise in the muni bond space. The duration is slightly less than 5. V. does sampling of ...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend fund choice
Replies: 11
Views: 1627

Re: Dividend fund choice

Dividend Appreciation uses a tighter screen than High Yield, though a lower dividend. Some would argue that dividend funds in general have been overplayed and don't really most effectively capture the value effect. That said, Div. App. and its ETF equivalent, VIG, arguably capture a "quality" factor...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Inter. or Total Muni [VTEAX - Tax-Exempt Bond Index]
Replies: 18
Views: 3318

Re: Vanguard - Int. Muni or Total Muni

Zen, I don't see a Total Muni offering; perhaps you are looking at Total Bond, the taxable one? VWITX is generally considered the sweet spot between the long-term and limited-term. I own it and the high yield munis that I continue to hold since I have capital gains. I also own VTEB, the bond index E...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?
Replies: 80
Views: 12827

Re: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?

I do business with both firms. Costco once a month or so for big items like paper towel bundles that I feel kind of silly having shipped from AMZN. My confidence in AMZN doing food is that I can't recall ever getting a food shipment from them that didn't have bent cans, leaking plastic honey contain...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VG Total Stock Market Index too concentrated?
Replies: 52
Views: 6069

Re: Is VG Total Stock Market Index too concentrated?

Think there have only been a few times in the S&P 500 that one sector went over something like 30% weight and stayed there for a time before getting eventually smacked. First was energy back during the Opec shortage days, next it was technology before the 2001 crash, and then finance before the 2008...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]
Replies: 32
Views: 4835

Re: [NY Times: Index fund evangelist is straying From His Gospel]

Malkiel has been a slow convert to Bogle style investing, as Nisi said above. In some of the early editions of "Random" he had a section on the "anomaly" of closed-end funds selling at discounts and, if memory serves, recommended some. He went on to become a member of the board of directors of the o...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Research Paper: Historical returns of the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 1657

Re: New Research Paper: Historical returns of the Global Market Portfolio

See this thread on Sharpe wanting Vanguard to develop a fund that does global stocks and bonds in market weight proportions. Apparently there is also a YouTube interview where he spells out what he wants:

viewtopic.php?t=207804
by jbranx
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What insurance company has the best coverage for auto, renters, and umbrella?
Replies: 35
Views: 4924

Re: What insurance company has the best coverage for auto, renters, and umbrella?

I've been with Amica for ten years for homes, auto, and umbrella. They consistently rank at the top of the JD Power surveys, For me their customer service has always been excellent, right up there with American Express and Fidelity. They cap their umbrellas at $5M, but will go outside for you for a ...
by jbranx
Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: is luxury car a smarter purchase?
Replies: 102
Views: 11161

Re: is luxury car a smarter purchase?

I've always driven Boglehead vehicles in BH fashion, one lasting 17 years. However, for the reasons listed above by Aloha Joe, I now drive a 2016 Mercedes E-350. Strolled up the street two blocks in Sept. nearly two years ago to the Mercedes dealer with a Costco bid in my pocket, expecting nothing t...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternatives to Amazon
Replies: 76
Views: 8259

Re: Alternatives to Amazon

Amazon seems to be experimenting with alternatives to UPS/FedX. I get deliveries on weekends from OnTrac, which isn't quite UPS for sure. But I have ordered online from JCP, Costco, Belks, CVS, Walgreens, and a half dozen shoe services, among many others, and have to say the best experience is still...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alaska cruise advice
Replies: 33
Views: 4063

Re: Alaska cruise advice

We did the Holland America package that included their train trip to Denali. We've done several HA cruises. Food is poor compared to most other lines, but they were the pioneers in doing AK cruises, and, being Seattle based, are usually on top of the best excursions. Definitely Skagway. Kenai. Beaut...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Stock Certificates
Replies: 3
Views: 1064

Re: Old Stock Certificates

You can probably do just a Google search and find out if they are still in business. Erie Forge and Steel looks private now. I'd search each company, find a ticker or Cusip number if they are still public, or else find out if they have merged or gone out of business. That done, I'd call my broker an...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Church windfall - conservative investment options?
Replies: 22
Views: 2451

Re: Church windfall - conservative investment options?

Tamucpa, I've managed money for churches and found it's best to first put the money into/or outline the very safe options like a money market account, short-term CDs, etc, and then to work on educating the Council on conservative investing if, indeed, the corpus is for endowment or some long-term pu...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28, Single, No Debt, Seeking Portfolio Advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3938

Re: 28, Single, No Debt, Seeking Portfolio Advice

Congratulations on the progress you have made already. You have excellent fund choices. For the taxable account you might consider one of the Vanguard Lifestrategy funds or do two funds, Vanguard total domestic and V. total international. One option I like is Vanguard Total World. Since you are in a...
by jbranx
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why
Replies: 101
Views: 12398

Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

I'm like some of the other posters: It's hard for me to understand what Google's enduring competitive advantage is. And the EU is starting to get tough on them regulation wise. Just saw a reference to a new book out by an ad exec. titled something like "the end of advertising." In his last edition (...
by jbranx
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk on or Risk off? An NYU professor's take
Replies: 5
Views: 1538

Re: Risk on or Risk off? An NYU professor's take

"Damodaran on Valuation" is one of the better books on stock analysis, and he has trained a lot of the analysts on Wall Street. His conclusion is essentially the same as Buffet's recent comments that stocks are not overvalued if interest rates remain this low. Problem with that is short-term market ...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 5976

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

Stock researchers have frequently confused Standard Statistic's maintenance of a stock database with the creation of an "index." Indeed, SS created an index of 233 stocks in 1923, a precursor to the S&P 90 that launched in 1926. That database/research of some 400 plus stocks was kind of like what so...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 5976

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

If I recall correctly, Standard Statistics (no S&P until 1941) did have another list of stocks, about 200, dating back further than the 90 that became the S&P Index. So, we aren't talking "hundreds" of stocks compiled and computed as an index. We're talking a mere 219 that S&P was tracking in some f...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 5976

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

That stocks are less risky over the long term is one of most difficult myths to discuss with friends. The "mountain charts" of the 500 since '26 that brokers/planners point to deepen the myth apparently. I also point out that nobody got that 10% returns since '26 because of wide spreads, outrageous ...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market index funds are unsustainable?
Replies: 12
Views: 3175

Re: Market index funds are unsustainable?

Here's a list of 37 ETF's that one way or another are socially, ethically, or sustainability dedicated: http://etfdb.com/type/investment-style/socially-responsible/ I've followed--never purchased--a lot of these tilts to "good behavior" of one type or another since Amy Domini (KLD) came out with the...
by jbranx
Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cataracts & reading glasses
Replies: 31
Views: 3880

Re: Cataracts & reading glasses

I paid the extra couple thousand for an upgrade from the standard lens that Medicare pays for. Well worth it in my case. Because of a slight retina issue, was not able to get the very latest lens that would have meant no glasses, but I can see 20/20 and read most print without glasses, though I wear...
by jbranx
Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?
Replies: 37
Views: 11452

Re: Got a Question for the Experts Panel at the Bogleheads Conference?

1) Ask each panel member if they were constructing a Three Fund Portfolio for a young investor which asset classes (or funds/ETFs) they would include. Plus, same question on a Four or Five Fund Portfolio. 2) Again, each panel member: What tilts, such as small value domestic or international, if any,...
by jbranx
Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Advice Urgently - Are we in over our heads?
Replies: 45
Views: 7760

Re: Need Advice Urgently - Are we in over our heads?

I've only mentally calculated, but it looks to me like your parents and kin are right: you can do it. In addition, you're going to be one very motivated person going forward! Speaking as a long-term married guy with somewhat frugal wife who likes nice places to live, view it as an investment in a go...
by jbranx
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 20778

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Tomcat makes a good point about classification of countries and their stocks. Both MSCI and S&P, for example, declared Greece a "developed" market in the early 2000's and returned it to EM classification during the financial crisis. Even in a "nobody knows nothing" world, one would think the index c...
by jbranx
Sun Jun 11, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 20778

Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Good quick interview on Bloomberg with Jack insisting the US is all you need; he says if you have to go overseas, do no more than 5% in EM. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-11/vanguard-s-bogle-says-ignore-the-crowd-stick-to-u-s-securities-j3su6bj5 “Every single person I think I have e...
by jbranx
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stocks For A Late Starter?

Warren Buffet has suggested 90% index fund and 10% treasuries to his executor. He keeps about 20% of Berkshire's assets in cash. I guess hundred minus age in stocks is the neutral allocation. Just watching investors over a lifetime of investing, I've seen lots of people who thought they could handle...
by jbranx
Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 15187

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Jim Rogers, like all the rest of these types, are in the "entertainment business." Folks have an awful tendency to "overpay" for entertainment; in this case one pays by taking their advice. Soros, Jim's former partner, was bad wrong in saying in Nov. the market would head down on the election. Stan ...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 3748

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

Yes, Theoretical, I checked V's VIOV/S&P etc. data on the 600's price to sales: range is a low of .69 up to .75 vs. the 500 at 2. I guess if that is the buy metric, it's time to back up the truck. Yes, it's a mixed bag anymore with all the data sources reporting/calculating with different formulas e...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 3748

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

I checked Vanguard's data on its S&P Smallcap 600 Value: P/E 146 vs benchmark at 144.8 and P/B at 1.7. S&P Index site has P/E of 74.1 trailing and 19.29 prospective. So, the data is probably not a V. glitch but rather accounting treatments since the S&P data is closer to V's than any of the others w...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

Economist and Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson, who had a great influence on Bogle's decision to go with the first index fund available to retail investors, had a good observation on why caution is in order on an all-in conviction that stocks are the best single bet to build and sustain wealth: Quote n...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 3748

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

I wonder if that is a typo. Vanguard says the price/book is 1.9. When I look at Fidelity's ETF report for VBR, I see 19.6 as the P/E ratio. Morningstar does the P/E on "prospective" eps and shows 17.7, the same as the benchmark.
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

Tomcat, I"m certain it's accurate. I'll tell you one experience that may explain why more people don't do the super leverage. (Just as a reminder, the I-banks in 2008 were leveraged about 35 to 1, as I recall, which is why they had to be rescued by the taxpayers). Anyhow, in Oct. 1987 I was working ...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

Those with very high confidence in the financial system and stocks would have stayed the course after 1929, Aloha Joe!! They would have been even on the DJ Averages by 1953 I believe, and, with dividends reinvested, think right before WW II. Extraordinary confidence in stocks ignores a lot of market...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

And then 1908? May have my dates off a bit, but believe in '07 JP Morgan locked a bunch of Wall Street bankers in his office and refused to allow them to leave until they agreed with him to rescue the US government, there being no Federal Reserve until 1913. Obviously, we are in a far more sophistic...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Installing Fencing to keep predators away from chickens?
Replies: 26
Views: 2844

Re: Installing Fencing to keep predators away from chickens?

I grew up on a farm with chickens and have lived on two farms with chickens/turkeys/geese. On one farm we "chicken-wired" an area of a shed all the way to the top, buried some part of it in the ground, and figured we had all the predators covered. A dog pack visited, tore through the chicken wire an...
by jbranx
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

Interactive Brokers, ticker IBKR, has been around since 1977. Frequently wins those surveys of "best online brokerage," such as Barron's this year. Fidelity and other brokerages are lowering margin rates considerably; Fido's now are only 4%, depending on the level of assets one has with them.
by jbranx
Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone read the Wall Street Journal?
Replies: 58
Views: 10267

Re: Does anyone read the Wall Street Journal?

I've read/subscribed to the WSJ (and Barron's) since about 1970. It has been very helpful to me. It used to be far more helpful than it is today. Once the WSJ was full of business news that one could get nowhere else. Today, however, the Journal focuses on a lot of non-business/non-market stories. A...
by jbranx
Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 19867

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

My observation is that quick market recoveries, like between 2008 and a bottom in March 2009, and 2001 and back up pretty fast, create a lot of very brave investors. However, I lived through 1966-August 1972 when simple five-year treasuries outperformed the S&P 500. Getting a lot of courage because ...