Search found 10604 matches

by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 212
Views: 19241

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

I don’t hold VXUS but I do hold FNDC and IVAL, both which provide small/deep-value exposure. Thanks for your contribution to turning ex-US around. Now that you’ve capitulated it’s bound to explode.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Roth Performance
Replies: 17
Views: 1764

Re: Vanguard Roth Performance

Munir wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:20 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:49 am
summerof42 wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:00 am Since Jan '20, would I have faired better if I had been invested in VG Total Bond or VG 500?
Since January 2020 if you had been in TSLA you'd have a 412% gain.
What is TSLA?
Tesla. It’s a joke but gets my point across. Longterm risk adjusted return is what matters.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Another POV. Active investing skews to value & small, passive skews to large; flows from active funds to passive funds (and the elderly selling active funds to fund lifestyle vs the young accumulating in passive) results in suppressed SCV stock prices and ever present bid for megacap > https://twit...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777815

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Today was a bloodbath 2-3%? How so? Maybe a NKLA investor. Not the OP, but I did buy 100 shares of NKLA at ~$52.5/share. Still can't decide should I sell them and save whatever is left or just sit back to see my investment go to zero, with a chance that some day the share price may go back to my pu...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Another POV. Active investing skews to value & small, passive skews to large; flows from active funds to passive funds (and the elderly selling active funds to fund lifestyle vs the young accumulating in passive) results in suppressed SCV stock prices and ever present bid for megacap > https://twit...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

... so is 50% TSM and 50% SCV until age 50 acceptable? Before jumping on the SCV train, I strongly suggest doing an industry analysis of what's in your chosen SCV fund. Could you not say the same about someone who is 100% TSM? I would wager the average sector-exposure goes down at 50/50 market-cap/...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777815

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:41 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
2-3%? How so?
Maybe a NKLA investor.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

The reason I'm thinking this way is that even if we have a market crash, stocks roar back eventually and 5 years timespan should cover the cycle. Not sure why one should be extremely risk adverse in their retirement. Is it not a good practice to continuing growing your wealth once you're retired? U...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

I never said I would beat it on a risk-adjusted basis, but I expect to beat it on an absolute return basis, just as someone who holds more equity hopes to beat a benchmark of more bonds. Historically the value premium has been more persistent through time than the equity premium. No issues with tha...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

From Bloomberg, John Authers on small cap stocks, "The Size Effect Didn't Disappear. It Never Existed": Asness and team have now revisited the data, brought it up to date, and broken it down to daily returns. The regressions are all in Asness’s piece, and best not listed here. The bottom line is em...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

From Bloomberg, John Authers on small cap stocks, "The Size Effect Didn't Disappear. It Never Existed": Asness and team have now revisited the data, brought it up to date, and broken it down to daily returns. The regressions are all in Asness’s piece, and best not listed here. The bottom line is em...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I dont understand compound interest.
Replies: 47
Views: 4813

Re: I dont understand compound interest.

This is my favorite example of just how powerful compounding can be.

Would you rather get $1M cash today, or $0.01 and I will double the amount every day for 30 days?

https://www.savingtoinvest.com/power-of ... on-now-or/
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Im curious, would you also think adding credit risk (corporate bonds) to a portfolio with term and equity would increase risk-adjusted returns? It seems most tilters stick to equity factors plus term but eschew credit I personally do think so and once I buy bonds, I will buy both treasuries/TIPs an...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Im curious, would you also think adding credit risk (corporate bonds) to a portfolio with term and equity would increase risk-adjusted returns? It seems most tilters stick to equity factors plus term but eschew credit I personally do think so and once I buy bonds, I will buy both treasuries/TIPs an...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

... so is 50% TSM and 50% SCV until age 50 acceptable? Before jumping on the SCV train, I strongly suggest doing an industry analysis of what's in your chosen SCV fund. Could you not say the same about someone who is 100% TSM? I would wager the average sector-exposure goes down at 50/50 market-cap/...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

... so is 50% TSM and 50% SCV until age 50 acceptable? It can be if you have a high tolerance for risk and tracking error. One thing to keep in mind: if you plan to start decumulating your SCV allocation at age 50, what would you do if SCV has underperformed the broad market for a long period at th...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

Strange response. Maybe the extra return I get can pay for some simplicity elsewhere in life. If you get extra return. Hope springs are eternal. You sound like you've found an easy way to beat the market. Do you hold your equity at global market cap (close to 40% equity, 60% bonds) or do you hold m...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5824

Re: Tesla battery day.

He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology. A fraud? Tell us more. Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc. He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gi...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: starting out intelligently.
Replies: 140
Views: 3019

Re: High Dividend for diversification

You’d be better off diversifying with small-value. Add some VBR and hold forever.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5824

Re: Tesla battery day.

Boglelicious123 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:22 pm Say what you want about Musk and his presentations, but when he says something is being worked on it generally happens. Have to respect that
This is deeply deeply mistaken. His track record is appalling.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5824

Re: Tesla battery day.

He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology. A fraud? Tell us more. Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc. He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gi...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5824

Re: Tesla battery day.

interwebopinion wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:39 pm Generally an Elon skeptic - but today I've been impressed. It will make electric cars *cheaper* than gas powered cars. That's an amazing milestone. If anyone can pull it off, it's him.
Yeah every claim he’s made has come true... knock knock, who’s there? SEC. SEC who?
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

... so is 50% TSM and 50% SCV until age 50 acceptable? Age 50 doesn’t mean much, when are you retiring? How’s your risk tolerance? Could you handle a 60% drawdown at age 49? This isn’t something you can ask others to answer. I thought you wanted to end up 60/40 equity/bonds? You don’t go to that th...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

Jack Bogle showed this in the Telltale Chart which I have linked many times before. We must have been looking at different ones. The only one I have ever seen shows DFSVX pulling past the US market until 2018, where it has suffered a large relative drawdown that has roughly equated the total return...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6813

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

Lol love these replies. Just go 100% into TSLA, I hear they’ll be on sale tomorrow after a rough battery day presentation. VXUS is a great fund but you shouldn’t arbitrarily hold it in your Roth, it should have a target overall allocation, did Vanguard help you come up with one? Ah your 401k is in g...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5824

Re: Tesla battery day.

Yikes this isn't going well... some cringey moments.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla battery day.
Replies: 69
Views: 5824

Re: Tesla battery day.

Personally I think the day along with most announcements by Tesla are full of misleading and often outright fraudulent information. I think Elon's tweet yesterday cooling things off was hilarious, and I expect some downward pressure as call options hoping for a pop expire worthless and market makers...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Will everyone's transition from TSM/SCV (say 50% TSM and 50% SCV) to something more conservative as they near retirement be linear, or exponential? For example, is it possible to formulate 80 - age as your SCV allocation so the number drops 1% each year until you hit 0%, or will it be better to pic...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Will everyone's transition from TSM/SCV (say 50% TSM and 50% SCV) to something more conservative as they near retirement be linear, or exponential? For example, is it possible to formulate 80 - age as your SCV allocation so the number drops 1% each year until you hit 0%, or will it be better to pic...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

FYI with daily regression (not great but due to shorter life of VFMF it may be more representative) I am actually seeing the VFMF gets over 88% of the value exposure of VBR, so even closer than I noted above: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y®ressionType=1&symbols=VFMF%2CVB...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?
Replies: 250
Views: 17671

Re: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?

How did you come up with your desired asset allocation in the 1st place? It is hard to give an objective answer to this when the starting position itself is subjective. If you were comfortable at 50/50 equity/bonds when the market was making new highs, why would you suddenly be uncomfortable at 50/5...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

I have considered switching my tilt to VFMF from SV but would be uncomfortable doing it in a year where VFMF, although having a bad year, has outperformed SV. I have tilted toward small value for about 20 years. I think the only scenario where I would make such a switch were after a period where SV...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

Robert T wrote: So far VFMF looks okay (if wanting those types of tilts). Here are the factor loads since inception (using daily data to increase sample size): 0.02 = Annual alpha 0.98 = Market 0.45 = Size 0.47 = Value 0.18 = Momentum 0.19 = Profitability [quality] These factor loads are very impre...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IJS and VIOV Tax Efficiency - REIT Exposure
Replies: 1
Views: 133

Re: IJS and VIOV Tax Efficiency - REIT Exposure

QDI and yield are the key drivers. Not sure about things lately but in the past I believe they came out ahead of VTI; VTI had a higher QDI, but also a higher yield. Given how poorly small & value have done though I wouldn't be surprised if the yield has pushed these into the worse-category.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Small Value Tilters, Are the Latest Pricing Models Important?
Replies: 11
Views: 885

Re: For Small Value Tilters, Are the Latest Pricing Models Important?

The following is a bit of a tangent, but I find it interesting. One attractive feature of DFA value funds is that there is a momentum screen. I've never heard anyone mention that IJS has such a screen. But in the 4 factor analysis of Robert T 's post, which includes momentum, momentum exposure is b...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

Jack Bogle showed this in the Telltale Chart which I have linked many times before. We must have been looking at different ones. The only one I have ever seen shows DFSVX pulling past the US market until 2018, where it has suffered a large relative drawdown that has roughly equated the total return...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

Has there been any word regarding a Vanguard International Multifactor fund since the position posting a year or so ago? Or even just an International value fund with similar make-up. That would absolutely be something that would get my attention as I would hope the expense ratio is a bit more favo...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to imitate DFA Global Equity Portfolio with ETF?
Replies: 8
Views: 641

Re: How to imitate DFA Global Equity Portfolio with ETF?

Could see that... Emerging Markets is 4.9% North America: 72.7% Europe: 14.7% Developed Asia Pacific: 7.7% 4.9+72.7+14.7+7.7=100% If I will imitate DFA with Vanguard ETF per asset allocation: VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets VUN U.S. Total Market Index VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe VPL Vanguard FTSE P...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

In fact, academics say in the long-run that growth will underperform the market Which academic said that? Can you provide source where a notable academic said Growth will underperform the market. There is a difference between saying risk adjusted expected returns are likely to be lower vs something...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

Yes, like so many that invest in small value stocks because they did well in the past. Or those that jump into momentum or quality or profitability or low volatility stocks because they performed well in the past. I'd rather performance chase something that has a good long-run history but has done ...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3718

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

Leaving aside the lack of ex-US and higher risk via no bonds, QQQ is just performance chasing at this point with no academic reason to expect it to outperform or compensate you for the extra risk. In fact, academics say in the long-run that growth will underperform the market (and QQQ is certainly g...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to imitate DFA Global Equity Portfolio with ETF?
Replies: 8
Views: 641

Re: How to imitate DFA Global Equity Portfolio with ETF?

Welcome to the forum! Are you looking for a global equity portfolio with a small-cap/value tilt? If so, here are a few ways to get there with ETFs: 1. Use VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF) as a starting point and add VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF), SLYV (SPDR S&P 600 Sma...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

I have considered switching my tilt to VFMF from SV but would be uncomfortable doing it in a year where VFMF, although having a bad year, has outperformed SV. I have tilted toward small value for about 20 years. I think the only scenario where I would make such a switch were after a period where SV...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

I've wondered why the assets are so paltry for the Vanguard factor funds. AVUV has six times the assets of VFMF and Avantis is a startup not Vanguard and VFMF has been around for twice as long. VFVA is a better parallel to AVUV I would say and closes the gap a bit but still a large disparity. Frank...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

I have considered switching my tilt to VFMF from SV but would be uncomfortable doing it in a year where VFMF, although having a bad year, has outperformed SV. I have tilted toward small value for about 20 years. I think the only scenario where I would make such a switch were after a period where SV...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4939

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

I'd hope not, but given the Boglehead affinity for performance-chasing I wouldn't be surprised. Yes, like so many that invest in small value stocks because they did well in the past. Or those that jump into momentum or quality or profitability or low volatility stocks because they performed well in...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3110
Views: 227924

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I presume you mean active funds because a mutual fund can be a index fund, but even some “active” value funds are still targeting factor exposure via a systematic approach, while others could be a bottoms up fundamental active fund. I prefer systematic investing and think humans only reduce perform...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777815

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

"Investors pulled $3.5 billion from the largest tech ETF [QQQ] Friday, the biggest daily withdrawal for the fund in 20 years." Source Watched QQQ for months and dediced to buy some end of last week. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 2nd dotcom crash at this point. Market is always tryining to mak...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How does total stock market index rebalance value vs growth
Replies: 8
Views: 481

Re: How does total stock market index rebalance value vs growth

Many growth and value funds aren’t perfect counter points either, the growth often use very different weighting metrics than value. I have found that most pairs rebalanced to 50/50 frequently do resemble the blend though. Vanguard's Value and Growth Index Funds do not split 50/50, if you read the C...
by MotoTrojan
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often does underlying holdings and sectors change in Index Fund (VTSAX)
Replies: 4
Views: 368

Re: How often does underlying holdings and sectors change in Index Fund (VTSAX)

VTSAX is a market-cap weighted total market index, so the only major changes it needs to make are companies that are newly listed (IPO) or de-listed. Most funds will do these (uncommon) changes every quarter or so. If Apple stock doubles and goes from 2% to ~4% of the index, no rebalancing is needed...