Search found 4957 matches

by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2601
Views: 200060

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Where do dividend fit in as the future do not pay any? They don't. But the savings on ER, borrowing rate, and volatility drag could come out ahead. I say could because daily rebalancing (volatility drag) can also create outsized returns (>3x the base asset). Dividends are accounted for in the prici...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions
Replies: 21
Views: 2446

Re: 25 years to retirement; assume 0 future contributions

Have you heard about the Rule of 72? Basically it states that, given a fixed interest rate, the amount of time it would take to double the original investment is 72 over the interest rate. Conversely, if you have a fixed time horizon, the interest rate you need to double the initial investment with...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2601
Views: 200060

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Dockpp wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:48 pm

Where do dividend fit in as the future do not pay any?
They don't. But the savings on ER, borrowing rate, and volatility drag could come out ahead. I say could because daily rebalancing (volatility drag) can also create outsized returns (>3x the base asset).
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 101
Views: 7012

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

It's really kind of a hack to see if there is something there with using TMV to supplement TMF. Unfortunately Portfolio visualizer won't do risk parity with monthly data. It can't, because it needs daily volatility and this can't be determined from the monthly data. Perhaps you don't have them (Sia...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Tightening Up - $140K Cash
Replies: 17
Views: 1458

Re: Portfolio Review - Tightening Up - $140K Cash

You'll get much better responses if you post what each of those tickers is.

529 is absolutely worth it.

Look into tax-efficient fund placement.

Most importantly I would move all of your International to Domestic; that way all of my International holdings will explode with 25% CAGR :P .
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got robbed in London...Phone stolen...what else do I need to do?
Replies: 50
Views: 6448

Re: Got mugged in London...Phone stolen...what else do I need to do?

You changed your password to 200 sites? Sorry this happened to you.
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Compounding Interest vs. Mortgage
Replies: 11
Views: 1657

Re: Compounding Interest vs. Mortgage

If you can save enough to max a Roth IRA and Roth 401k you should likely be considering traditional 401k contributions.
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just discovered we may not be eligible for Roth IRA anymore
Replies: 37
Views: 3252

Re: Just discovered we may not be eligible for Roth IRA anymore

There is one thing you can do: have your current year Roth contributions characterized as non-deductible Traditional IRA contribution, then use those funds to invest in bond funds only. Consider this as part of your bond portfolio. In the case of not being able to do the backdoor because of a tradi...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2601
Views: 200060

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Frankly I don't think this analysis is robust I was going for easy to understand, not robust. Example: Index EX goes from 1 to 1.1 and back to 1 and repeats that forever. What will happen to an index that returns 3x the daily return of EX? It will slowly decay in value, even though the base index i...
by MotoTrojan
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2601
Views: 200060

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I've been working on getting a better understanding of the nature of "volatility decay." Rebalancing interacts a lot. Here is 100% SDY (blue) and 50% SDYL, 50% CASHX (red) with no rebalancing. SDYL is a monthly resetting leveraged 2x ETF. https://i.ibb.co/QfnP80X/Screen-Shot-2019-07-11-at-1-47-59-A...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1317
Views: 124903

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

In 20 years, it will probably be over 12,000 That would be a 7% price CAGR alone (no dividends). Seems unlikely but would be nice. 10% nominal is the historical average (take away dividends makes it 7%-8%). May not happen, but I wouldn't call it unlikely. That 10% includes some very high inflation ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poorly Managed
Replies: 25
Views: 2120

Re: Poorly Managed

Maybe an apples-to-apples comparison? Can you plug the (bad funds) into some kind of fund analyzer (Morningstar?) which will clearly and objectively show what the breakdown of stock/type/bond mix it's in, and a statement showing the return over 1/3/5/10 years, vs an identical asset mix of Vanguard ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2601
Views: 200060

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Can I just ask - and sorry if it has been asked already - If this strategy returns a +5% on one particular day, is there a collective -5% return for anyone else? Struggling to understand who is taking the other side and if it is equal sum. Thank you! If the S&P500 returns 5% in one particular day, ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

The general trend around here is to buy bond funds, not individual bonds. This is because most people don't have the knowledge or expertise to set up a bond portfolio of individual bonds. So you are not alone in not knowing how to do it right. :happy Don't worry about it. Pick up the pieces and mov...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2601
Views: 200060

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

make_a_better_world wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:23 pm
Cheers for the thread with special thanks to Hedgfundie and Siamond. I found it a very interesting read and I'm going to try it with 100k as well.
Woohoo another bold bet, I like it! Straight up 40/60 monthly rebalance?
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not post-tax investment in US for people from Home Country - India
Replies: 34
Views: 3192

Re: Why not post-tax investment?

Would you rather pay 15% tax on $0.75 or 25% tax on $1? Gains are taxed at 15% in my example, still often loses even without factoring for tax-drag over the years. The 0.75 is not a gain, it is the after tax equivalent of $1 in tax deferred. Understood. My example was poorly phrased. You put $1 in ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

Ok, thank you! Can you all recommend a bond fund for me? I will have to go read up some. Well, how much risk do you want to take? Corporate bond funds dropped something like 30% during the GFC I believe, and they are only paying around 3.4% right now. Treasuries would be more likely to go up than d...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

Company Altera (Intel) yield to maturity 2.10% Maturity date 2023 Coupon rate 4.10% Union Pacific 907818DK1 Yield to Maturity 2.17% Maturity Date 2022 Coupon Rate 4.163% Let me know if I am reading this wrong as I own them. Oh boy... You bought bonds that will pay 2.10-2.17% interest. Not much bett...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH With Gold?
Replies: 3
Views: 290

Re: TLH With Gold?

I am also not versed on whether physical gold counts, but I did want to point out that it is often better to use a harvested loss to offset income tax rather than a long term gain. You can offset up to $3K a year of income tax and the rest rolls over. If you sell the long-term gain though it will fo...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

Yup. I need to decide. I can get 4% on A bonds now. I don't know why people find that hard to believe. Because we understand that it’s not risk free, or tax efficient. Ignore the ratings. Yield tells you everything. Of course, owenmia neither stated nor implied that the 4% bonds he was considering ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not post-tax investment in US for people from Home Country - India
Replies: 34
Views: 3192

Re: Why not post-tax investment?

You do have income in retirement, unless you just have cash in a mattress. A CD earning 3% on a 2 million dollar portfolio of post tax investment generates $60K in income. That $60K gets taxed. If you could have that same in a ROTH, still a post tax investment, that generates $0 income. Now deferri...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not post-tax investment in US for people from Home Country - India
Replies: 34
Views: 3192

Re: Why not post-tax investment?

Would you rather pay 15% tax on $0.75 or 25% tax on $1? 👍 Call me confused, but this does not make sense/quite translate. I can see that growth in a tax deferred account gets taxed as ordinary income, so I get the “25% tax on $1”. But, if we are talking about after tax investment, you have 0.75 ini...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1317
Views: 124903

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

In 20 years, it will probably be over 12,000 That would be a 7% price CAGR alone (no dividends). Seems unlikely but would be nice. 10% nominal is the historical average (take away dividends makes it 7%-8%). May not happen, but I wouldn't call it unlikely. That 10% includes some very high inflation ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

owenmia wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:27 pm
Yup. I need to decide.

I can get 4% on A bonds now. I don't know why people find that hard to believe.
Because we understand that it’s not risk free, or tax efficient.

Ignore the ratings. Yield tells you everything.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Prime Money Market or Total Bond Market
Replies: 63
Views: 6770

Re: Prime Money Market or Total Bond Market

stm wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:43 am
If one had a predetermined use and time frame for using funds (say 6 years for a college fund), what might be some considerations per the topic?
5 year CD then a money market if you want no lose of principal.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1317
Views: 124903

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:55 am
In 20 years, it will probably be over 12,000
That would be a 7% price CAGR alone (no dividends). Seems unlikely but would be nice.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to best unload shares?
Replies: 21
Views: 1035

Re: How to best unload shares?

What makes it a nightmare tax wise? When I have sold stock it was not a nightmare tax wise. Do you mean that determining the cost basis is difficult? The inherited shares received a stepped up basis and it would be easy to find the price. This. Doesn’t seem like a nightmare at this dollar amount. C...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to best unload shares?
Replies: 21
Views: 1035

Re: How to best unload shares?

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:53 pm
What would be the advantage ?

Taxes are split across two years, but also receipts are.
Plus, it is PG&E we are talking about, so there is a certain dose of risk in waiting.
I presumed Proctor & Gamble.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

Sure. There are a bunch of 4%. There are even 7 and 8%. My broker friend said never take anything over 5% because the market is accounting for risk that the bond agencies are not. 983024AF7 WYETH LLC coupon rate 6.5% Rated AA 478160AF1 JOHNSON & JOHNSON Coupon Rate 6.7% Rated AAA 373298CF3 GEORGIA-...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSBC Buffered accelerated Market Participation Securities
Replies: 18
Views: 685

Re: HSBC Buffered accelerated Market Participation Securities

You asked direct questions such as mine though? Criminal indeed. Yes, she simply answered, "Yes, 2x, its a VERY popular product as you can imagine." As I think about it more it's essentially a Junk Bond with an infinite downside. OY. She was also selling this to me as an AFTER TAX investment. Pleas...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VOO vs bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 2982

Re: VOO vs bonds

4% on bonds??

Also I think most of the 3-4% forecasts are real returns so closer to 5-6% market return. Adjust for taxes and bonds lose even more.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSBC Buffered accelerated Market Participation Securities
Replies: 18
Views: 685

Re: HSBC Buffered accelerated Market Participation Securities

Tell them you want 2x the S&P 500 but no cap and see what they say... I’d be more interested in whether they’d tell me it’s even there. “Wow, so I’ll return 14% on average?” or “Wow so I would’ve gotten 40% this year”. The sales pitch is 2x the S&P 500 returns. I had to find the fine print on caps ...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSBC Buffered accelerated Market Participation Securities
Replies: 18
Views: 685

Re: HSBC Buffered accelerated Market Participation Securities

Kenkat wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:49 am


Tell them you want 2x the S&P 500 but no cap and see what they say...
I’d be more interested in whether they’d tell me it’s even there. “Wow, so I’ll return 14% on average?” or “Wow so I would’ve gotten 40% this year”.
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?
Replies: 42
Views: 2352

Re: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?

Given the choices of: - Half and half contribution of life-strategy MODERATE growth and life-strategy GROWTH - A combo of 70% Total World / 30% Total US Bonds - A 50% Total US stock / 20% Total International Stock / 20% Total US Bonds / 10% Total International Bonds combo - Target date fund startin...
by MotoTrojan
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not post-tax investment in US for people from Home Country - India
Replies: 34
Views: 3192

Re: Why not post-tax investment?

Would you rather pay 15% tax on $0.75 or 25% tax on $1?
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 101
Views: 7012

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

What color should we paint our G650’s?
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest 180 k in cash - special circumstances
Replies: 15
Views: 1635

Re: Best way to invest 180 k in cash - special circumstances

That seems like a pretty awful rate. I’d check out Ally. Could also use a money market fund. If you’re particularly worried about safety and/or have high state taxes I’d look at rolling t-bills (Fidelity does automatically) or simply using a treasury money market. Exempt from state taxes, a yield hi...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Information Technology - VGT or VITAX
Replies: 52
Views: 12273

Re: Vanguard Information Technology - VGT or VITAX

Some people tilt to small cap or small cap value, so why not sector tilt in things like Technology and Healthcare? I am taking the lack of responses to my post as a very bullish sign, showing this isn't an area people have piled into yet. There is more than one way to pile into a sector or group of...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?
Replies: 42
Views: 2352

Re: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?

:D you guys are the best.. This is what I was hoping for, some great insights from all angles. I'm seeing how re-balancing is necessary, over time due to the difference in accruing/declining actual account balances. I also don't care for the complete hands off approach of target retirement funds. I...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safest way to invest $1 mil for individual with cognitive impairment to protect their assets?
Replies: 33
Views: 3418

Re: Safest way to invest $1 mil for individual with cognitive impairment to protect their assets?

One option would be annuitization which would turn the assets into future year cash flows (income). I don't know whether your relative would consider this, but maybe he would since he's OK with bonds. I'm normally not a fan of annuities but this seems like a case where they could offer protection f...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who cuts your hair? And for how much?
Replies: 153
Views: 7993

Re: Who cuts your hair? And for how much?

HCOL area and kind of a tricky haircut so I used to pay $35-$42 and consistently tipped $8. Now my SO takes care of me for free 8-) .
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?
Replies: 42
Views: 2352

Re: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?

I never said OP had to ride the target fund forever but it’s the easiest way to achieve 70/30 hands-off right now. Imho it requires less oversight than the 50/50 option originally posed.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Returns on a 70%value stock and 30% bonds 30
Replies: 5
Views: 740

Re: Returns on a 70%value stock and 30% bonds 30

These returns are annual and they do some tax harvesting, returns last two years don't seem to be up to par but value has been out of favor will probably just take 2% income out a year until SS kicks in just want nest egg to be stable but not get too aggressive,I do like how they do the bonds they ...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Frequency of 401k contributions - frontloading versus quateraly
Replies: 13
Views: 762

Re: Frequency of 401k contributions - frontloading versus quateraly

Load it up and move on if you can. Keep life easy.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate % of my International Fund relative to the rest?
Replies: 14
Views: 826

Re: How to calculate % of my International Fund relative to the rest?

The right answer is both. Context matters but the proper way to say you’re excluding bonds is to say “30% of equities” or similar.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?
Replies: 54
Views: 3611

Re: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?

I like the idea of estimating the foul dividend amount and donating to charities making these company’s lives hard.
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?
Replies: 42
Views: 2352

Re: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?

Only primary disadvantage in an IRA is that they will not remain balanced independently so you'll still need to manage your allocation/contributions to maintain 50/50 between the two. How would they become out of balance if they are designed to maintain their asset allocation, respective to each fu...
by MotoTrojan
Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?
Replies: 42
Views: 2352

Re: Life-strategy MODERATE growth and Life-strategy GROWTH for 70/30 mix?

What would be the disadvantages/advantages of using a half and half mix of the two to form a 70/30 asset allocation? Only primary disadvantage in an IRA is that they will not remain balanced independently so you'll still need to manage your allocation/contributions to maintain 50/50 between the two...