Search found 20713 matches

by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6799

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

Scooter57 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:09 pm Everyone loves Total Return after a decade or more of manipulated rates pushing up stocks. When you have that decade of slowly sinking or stagnant stock prices, the point of dividend oriented investing will become clearer.
So dividends can make good returns out of bad returns?
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much cash does 80 y.o. FI ($5.8m NW) mother need? She's curious about gifting, places to park cash
Replies: 31
Views: 4600

Re: How much cash does 80 y.o. FI ($5.8m NW) mother need? She's curious about gifting, places to park cash

Escapevelocity wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:13 am Does she have POA and advance directives set up? Don't wait until her cognition is a major issue before addressing those things.
That was the first thing that came to my mind as well.
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

You can personally view corporate bonds any way you like, but the facts show that they have behaved largely like a mix of 20% stock and 80% intermediate-term Treasuries, although corporate bonds have been more volatile without a higher return. Portfolio 1 is 20% TSM and 80% ITT, and Portfolio 2 is ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Is a Japan scenario even possible in the US? and what are the likely chances? It's absolutely critical to keep in mind that at the peak of the Japanese stock market in 1989, the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) reached about 90. The highest the U.S. ever got in the dot com bubble ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

You can personally view corporate bonds any way you like, but the facts show that they have behaved largely like a mix of 20% stock and 80% intermediate-term Treasuries, although corporate bonds have been more volatile without a higher return. Portfolio 1 is 20% TSM and 80% ITT, and Portfolio 2 is ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6799

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

Seems easy enough to do, I don't get the reluctance of some investors, so far as selling things. I believe that the reason for this is because they view their capital as the number of shares they own rather than the market value of those shares (i.e. number of shares multiplied by the market price ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B
Replies: 7
Views: 518

Re: Best withdrawal strategy for 4% guaranteed return 403B

1. A lower withdrawal rate, for example 2.75%, and then adjusting that every year for inflation. Beginning at age 72 you will be required to take minimum distributions from the 403B, so you won't have the choice to withdraw 2.75% (it starts @3.7%). You must withdraw the RMD from "any" 403B (if you ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6799

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

Seems easy enough to do, I don't get the reluctance of some investors, so far as selling things. I believe that the reason for this is because they view their capital as the number of shares they own rather than the market value of those shares (i.e. number of shares multiplied by the market price ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6799

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

From Karsten: But for the rest of us, probably for most folks in the early retirement crowd who don’t have a six-figure income from a blog, the LOYD approach will likely not work in today’s dividend environment. The current S&P 500 yield, just under 2%, is too low and I don’t need to grow my nest e...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6799

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

From Karsten: But for the rest of us, probably for most folks in the early retirement crowd who don’t have a six-figure income from a blog, the LOYD approach will likely not work in today’s dividend environment. The current S&P 500 yield, just under 2%, is too low and I don’t need to grow my nest e...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4020
Views: 311689

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Well isn't it obvious that rising cases will lead to economical problems again? Do we have to wait till the numbers are high again to realize it? Why isn't this already priced in? Keep in mind that U.S. cases were still rising until mid-July, but stocks had already pretty much recovered to where th...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Extra $1000 a month. What do I do?
Replies: 38
Views: 2958

Re: Extra $1000 a month. What do I do?

I would definitely max out the HSA first and foremost. It is very likely to be the best tax-advantaged account of all.

If all other tax-advantaged accounts are being maxed out, then it makes good sense to pay down the mortgage. Imagine how much free cash flow you'll have when it's gone!
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 18691

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

The 8% annual increase from delaying Social Security is not a rate of return, nor even an expected rate of return. For an unmarried male in average health , the expected ROI from delaying from 62 all the way until 70 works out to about 1.7% real. For an unmarried female, it's about 2.9% real. Good ...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)
Replies: 109
Views: 6799

Re: Dividend Only Investing Analyzed (latest ERN article)

From Karsten: But for the rest of us, probably for most folks in the early retirement crowd who don’t have a six-figure income from a blog, the LOYD approach will likely not work in today’s dividend environment. The current S&P 500 yield, just under 2%, is too low and I don’t need to grow my nest eg...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 164
Views: 19127

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

That's interesting. I just looked at my 401k contributions (including employer match) and my contributions account for less that half of my balance. I'm 43 and have been contributing for 18 years. And I don't have close to a million yet. so I'm not sure how your first million was 80% contributions?...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

For many, they should probably do nothing. It's historically normal for bonds to make between -1% and +1% real. From 1941-1981, intermediate-term Treasuries lost about 1.6% annually. If we were in 1981, many would have very different expectations of bonds. 1982-2012 was the biggest bond market in U...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

The Fed has already said that they aren't interested in negative interest rates. So that sets 0% as a lower bound. TBM has a duration of 6.5 years and is currently yielding 1.17% (30 day SEC yield), so that dropping to zero would result in a 7.6% appreciation in existing bonds' principal value. Tha...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Mac Index and Bogleheaders' Thoughts on it
Replies: 41
Views: 2991

Re: Big Mac Index and Bogleheaders' Thoughts on it

HenryPorter wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:13 am Is it in order to propose another index, the Starbucks one?
I've got an idea. How about we have a group of intelligent, highly trained people track the prices of a large basket of the goods and services that consumers collectively spend most of their money on.

Oh, wait... :wink:
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Mac Index and Bogleheaders' Thoughts on it
Replies: 41
Views: 2991

Re: Big Mac Index and Bogleheaders' Thoughts on it

It's very narrow and a bit funny, but blogger Len Penzo has been tracking the cost of sandwich ingredients in the LA area for 12 years now. It does not indicate that CPI is a gross understatement of inflation, at least when it comes to simple foods. It's actually quite surprising to see how much pr...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Can we have a TIAA forum?
Replies: 8
Views: 886

Re: Can we have a TIAA forum?

About the only truly unique aspect of TIAA is its annuities like TIAA Traditional, and those have been covered well in existing threads.
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best product for repairing cracks in concrete deck?
Replies: 12
Views: 1225

Re: What is the best product for repairing cracks in concrete deck?

Is this stuff on Amazon,"Slab Concrete Crack Repair Sealant", the type thing that several of you have been recommending: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B009AXV782/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1 Yes, that's the type of product you need. Remember to use foam backer rod first if th...
by willthrill81
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 18691

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

My analysis: Do you need the money now? 1) Yes - then start now. 2) Not at all - wait. 3) Somewhere in the middle - use a good calculator to try to figure out how to maximize lifetime payout. That's my take as well. The only addition is that if the investor already has more than enough saved at 62 ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 164
Views: 19127

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

For example, some people even in this thread talk about how leveraging their home mortgage brought them all this wealth. But if they had had to pay off their home 5-10 years after buying it, they would have bought less home, paid less in interest/tax/insurance/utilities/maintenance/upkeep/furnishin...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 164
Views: 19127

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

For example, some people even in this thread talk about how leveraging their home mortgage brought them all this wealth. But if they had had to pay off their home 5-10 years after buying it, they would have bought less home, paid less in interest/tax/insurance/utilities/maintenance/upkeep/furnishin...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

willthrill81, I give you one from The Fed. https://www.deflation.com/articles/the-collapse-in-money-velocity-and-the-coming-deflation << On a blog from 2014, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis stated, "If for some reason the money velocity declines rapidly during an expansionary monetary policy ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/japan-s-long-deflation-battle-is-warning-for-post-virus-world Is this scenario as likely as inflation? I'm not smart enough to know. What I do think is many US investors, probably myself included, are not psychologically prepared for a period for s...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chase Sapphire Reserve
Replies: 84
Views: 12287

Re: Chase Sapphire Reserve

My CSR annual fee of $550 is due later this month and because I didn't travel this year and likely won't be flying until late 2021 at the earliest, the card just isn't worth the AF, so I am considering either downgrading to the Sapphire Preferred ($95 AF) or just cancelling the card outright. I hav...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Is a Japan scenario even possible in the US? and what are the likely chances? It's absolutely critical to keep in mind that at the peak of the Japanese stock market in 1989, the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) reached about 90. The highest the U.S. ever got in the dot com bubble ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 164
Views: 19127

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

JonnyDVM wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:07 pm Am I the only one here who is able to deduct mortgage interest from his taxes ?
After the TCJA went into effect, the percentage of taxpayers who itemized their taxes dropped from 31% to about 14%.
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/japan-s-long-deflation-battle-is-warning-for-post-virus-world Is this scenario as likely as inflation? I'm not smart enough to know. What I do think is many US investors, probably myself included, are not psychologically prepared for a period for s...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 164
Views: 19127

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

So I shouldn’t go skiing because I have a 30-year mortgage. If I lived like that, I could probably pay off my mortgage in 10 years instead of 30. I’d rather hit the slopes. Balance in all things. I hit the slopes many times when we had a mortgage. It's just important to recognize that when you have...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-28/japan-s-long-deflation-battle-is-warning-for-post-virus-world Is this scenario as likely as inflation? I'm not smart enough to know. What I do think is many US investors, probably myself included, are not psychologically prepared for a period for s...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amplify High Income ETF (YYY)
Replies: 7
Views: 692

Re: Amplify High Income ETF (YYY)

Why is the fund down -11.53% YTD?
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 18691

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

wander wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:01 pm I used to plan taking SS at 70. I am still many years away from early retirement but I think it rather makes sense for me to take it at 62.
For what reason?
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 18691

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

My analysis: Do you need the money now? 1) Yes - then start now. 2) Not at all - wait. 3) Somewhere in the middle - use a good calculator to try to figure out how to maximize lifetime payout. That's my take as well. The only addition is that if the investor already has more than enough saved at 62 ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

Unless you can predict the future , it is not logical to believe that you know the actual return rate of the bond in the future . You are just guessing. You do not have to know the future in order to get a very good, data-informed estimate of the future rate of return of bonds. It's far better than...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

I think it's about minimizing regret and not maximizing return. We discussed that topic in this thread last year. I find the topic intriguing. It probably depends substantially on the mode of comparison. If the comparison the investor is concerned about is global stocks, then global diversification...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

I'm just going to leave this here. Again. https://www.mymoneyblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/us_intl_cycle-720x268.gif Could you post a "growth of $10,000" chart to go with it? According to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, from 1969-2019, real returns for the U.S. were 5.92% and 4.3...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What would your retirement number be if?
Replies: 30
Views: 6490

Re: What would your retirement number be if?

I've posted here before but want to try a different approach. Please tell me what number would make you feel comfortable to retire given the following assumptions. 1. husband 54 dies at 85, wife 51 dies at 95 2. husband retires at 55, wife earns 50k/yr x 5 more yrs plus carries health ins for that ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

I'm just going to leave this here. Again. https://www.mymoneyblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/us_intl_cycle-720x268.gif Could you post a "growth of $10,000" chart to go with it? According to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, from 1969-2019, real returns for the U.S. were 5.92% and 4.3...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

I'm just going to leave this here. Again. https://www.mymoneyblog.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/us_intl_cycle-720x268.gif Could you post a "growth of $10,000" chart to go with it? According to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, from 1969-2019, real returns for the U.S. were 5.92% and 4.3...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Decision between Total Bond or Intermediate Treasury
Replies: 21
Views: 1134

Re: Decision between Total Bond or Intermediate Treasury

Basically, the only difference is that TBM includes some exposure to corporate bonds, which themselves behave as a mixture of mostly Treasuries and a little stocks (i.e. about 20/80). This means that TBM is expected to be both more volatile than ITT, which we have definitely seen this year, and to ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 211
Views: 18346

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

Valuethinker wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:20 am If you strip out the Big 5 all the measures of earnings growth and PEs would look a lot closer - US & non-US.
U.S. still outperformed. Even SCV, which many now deplore, which started underperforming U.S. TSM in 2007 has still far outperformed ex-U.S. (3.43% real vs. .47% from 2007-Sep. 2020).
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Decision between Total Bond or Intermediate Treasury
Replies: 21
Views: 1134

Re: Decision between Total Bond or Intermediate Treasury

Basically, the only difference is that TBM includes some exposure to corporate bonds, which themselves behave as a mixture of mostly Treasuries and a little stocks (i.e. about 20/80). This means that TBM is expected to be both more volatile than ITT, which we have definitely seen this year, and to ...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best product for repairing cracks in concrete deck?
Replies: 12
Views: 1225

Re: What is the best product for repairing cracks in concrete deck?

I'd check out a polyurethane caulk. This is what I always use...the stuff designed for concrete. Just order twice as much as you think you need because cracks are usually deeper than you think. True. Also, if the crack is deep, it's better to first insert some foam backer rod into it to fill up som...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Decision between Total Bond or Intermediate Treasury
Replies: 21
Views: 1134

Re: Decision between Total Bond or Intermediate Treasury

Basically, the only difference is that TBM includes some exposure to corporate bonds, which themselves behave as a mixture of mostly Treasuries and a little stocks (i.e. about 20/80). This means that TBM is expected to be both more volatile than ITT, which we have definitely seen this year, and to h...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

Further, you have not offered any evidence as to why bonds should be expected to have a positive real return over the next decade. willthrill81, I don't need to. The real world does not have to meet someone's expectations. What is REAL and what is EXPECTED is rarely the same. The expectation is jus...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

The Fed has already said that they aren't interested in negative interest rates. So that sets 0% as a lower bound. TBM has a duration of 6.5 years and is currently yielding 1.17% (30 day SEC yield), so that dropping to zero would result in a 7.6% appreciation in existing bonds' principal value. Tha...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

Well, he doesn't know it in the sense that it absolutely will occur, but unless inflation falls to under current bond yields and/or interest rates fall further, bonds (e.g. TBM) will lose out to inflation over the next decade. Yep, exactly. I don't know about others, but I don't want 15% of my port...
by willthrill81
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5864

Re: Bond alternatives

You know this, how? Well, he doesn't know it in the sense that it absolutely will occur, but unless inflation falls to under current bond yields and/or interest rates fall further, bonds (e.g. TBM) will lose out to inflation over the next decade. Yep, exactly. I don't know about others, but I don't...