Search found 20713 matches

by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA vs 401k
Replies: 27
Views: 2453

Re: Roth IRA vs 401k

I understand a lot of factors contribute to this debate. The general consensus is that if you are in a higher tax bracket and get a company match, go with 401k.If your in a low tax bracket with no match, do the Roth first. That's not quite true. You should contribute to tax deferred accounts like a...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to simplify an existing portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 2345

Re: How to simplify an existing portfolio

Hello Everyone! In the past year, I’ve slowly begun to take control of my investing future. I completed my emergency fund goals. I took control of my investments (they were being held with a family fund manager and I had them transferred over to Vanguard). I bought The Bogleheads' Guide to Investin...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting entire 401(k) balance in a single fund
Replies: 14
Views: 2823

Re: Putting entire 401(k) balance in a single fund

Thanks for all the comments and suggestions so far. Have not seen anyone commenting on BlackRock S&P 500 Index Fund Class (WFSPX) being a feeder fund. Does it matter or it does not at all? I suggest you start by describing why you consider it to be a "feeder fund" and what the definition of that is...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I have to say I found this thread intriguing (if only because it asked a question very directly related to my own 80/20 AA). The more I think about it, the more it seems that the primary reason for which one would choose 80/20, or 90/10, instead of 100/0, is really a line of thinking close to an em...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

So rather than look at just the most recent 30-year period, I find it more informative to look at periods of different lengths of time with different end dates. I think the telltale chart does a pretty good job of helping us understand the impact of selecting different start and end dates, and help...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No company match question.
Replies: 20
Views: 1526

Re: No company match question.

ruralavalon wrote:In general it's usually still good to contribute to a 401k even without an employer match.
If he's eligible to deduct TIRA contributions, why should he go with a 401k instead, especially since his options are limited to target date funds?
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: No company match question.
Replies: 20
Views: 1526

Re: No company match question.

If there's no company match, then I would skip the 401k in lieu of a traditional IRA, assuming your income allows you to deduct the contributions. You can open the IRA anywhere; most of us here faun over Vanguard. You'll have your pick of many of the best investment options in the industry there. If...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting entire 401(k) balance in a single fund
Replies: 14
Views: 2823

Re: Putting entire 401(k) balance in a single fund

Thanks for all the comments and suggestions so far. Have not seen anyone commenting on BlackRock S&P 500 Index Fund Class (WFSPX) being a feeder fund. Does it matter or it does not at all? I wouldn't worry about that at all. The ER is very low at .04%, and it appears to track the S&P 500 as closely...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months
Replies: 19
Views: 2423

Re: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months

kosomoto wrote:Here is the link I was referring to:

viewtopic.php?t=201736
+1

That is further evidence that predicting short-term returns in equities is fruitless and, potentially, dangerous.
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mega Corp - Long Term Incentive
Replies: 13
Views: 2085

Re: Mega Corp - Long Term Incentive

Without getting into all of the tax 'weeds', here's my take. If you take the cash, it will be taxed when you receive it at your marginal tax rate. If you take the stock and hold it for a year and a day, then sell it, you will pay at the lower long-term capital gains tax rate. So unless you're concer...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on housing crash
Replies: 60
Views: 4835

Re: BH thoughts on housing crash

No one really knows if/when real estate prices will drop. Those same agents almost certainly saw no bubble in 2007. Trying to predict that sort of thing is largely a fool's errand. You know your market far better than most of us do, but it is my understanding that rental prices did not fall nearly a...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months
Replies: 19
Views: 2423

Re: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months

The underlying question IMO is does the stock market price have an underlying 'normal' rate of return. Arguably, the answer is yes because it ultimately comes to down to human beings' risk-adjusted evaluation of current versus future outcomes. Human beings have a strong tendency to value the presen...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months
Replies: 19
Views: 2423

Re: S&P up over 20% in the last 12 months

Is anybody now more worried about future returns? I think Larry had some fairly low predictions for US returns and this year blew the predictions out of the water. Glad I didn't reduce US exposure. When it comes to short-term and mid-term performance, no one can predict what the market's returns wi...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Passive Style of Index Fund create artificial demand?
Replies: 21
Views: 2119

Re: Does Passive Style of Index Fund create artificial demand?

Do Index Funds create an artificial demand for all the stocks tracked by the index without paying attention to the companies fundamentals? There is a mad craze for index funds lately and I believe it is surest and safest bet anyone can have to achieve best diversification possible and as a result m...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 227
Views: 44965

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Klangfool In fact that is basically what I am invested in, and are many advisors in our firm, and about 10-15% of our clients--they are basically small value, but internationally diversified. Now some do so to increase expected returns, so they are even 100% equities, and some are like me using the...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Re mean reversion What you MUST remember is that the US outperformance in recent years, really since 2008, has been due to RISING VALUATIONS mostly, and that means lower expected returns. The CAPE 10 is now 28, way above historical average and meaning real expected return is say 4% at best, while f...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Well you made the point many times (including in your OP) that there's no real difference between 100/80/70 % equities, historically. I never said that there wasn't a 'real difference' between a 100/0 and a 70/30 portfolio. In my humble opinion, if a 100% stock portfolio is too volatile for someone...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The old debate on taxes now vs later
Replies: 25
Views: 3586

Re: The old debate on taxes now vs later

The premise of the book, people hit age 70.5, start taking the RMDs required by the IRS and end up chipping away at their retirement nest egg at a quicker rate than expected, to the point where they have nothing left. A highly unlikely result unless expenses are out of control. When my FIL died in ...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy funds on the date of distribution?
Replies: 2
Views: 427

Re: Buy funds on the date of distribution?

Since the fund loses NAV on the date of distribution, does it make sense to buy said fund on the date of distribution? Am I missing something as to why that would not be a good practice? The reason it's losing NAV is because the distribution is factored in. So you're no better off buying it on that...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

And that's great for you. Now imagine the investor who was 35 (like you are now) in 1988, and who retired at 55 (like you plan to) in early 2008. This person had to continue to work past their expected age of retirement. And that's with a fairly fast market recovery. Now imagine a 10 year or a 12 y...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Re mean reversion What you MUST remember is that the US outperformance in recent years, really since 2008, has been due to RISING VALUATIONS mostly, and that means lower expected returns. The CAPE 10 is now 28, way above historical average and meaning real expected return is say 4% at best, while f...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 227
Views: 44965

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

I'm at 100% equity allocation, and close to 50% vanguard small cap value... but I am also 30, so I have a long time horizon. Be careful. There are many here who think it extremely unwise to be 100% equities despite its having higher historic returns. And then they'll say if you own your home, or ha...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Will, you keep saying that you are at 100/0 but in this very thread you have stated that you are aggressively paying down your mortgage (only 3.5 years left) and you have substantial funds in your Roth IRA invested in Wellesley. This is not a 100/0 portfolio. You have a portion of your portfolio at...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

willthrill81, What happened to your portfolio in 2008? If you (like many of us here) lived through that period and actually had a decently sized portfolio, then you know the risks of this type of allocation. Trust me, I was 100% equity at that time, and it was terrible. You need to understand seque...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

KlangFool wrote:2) This is a very common story at the forum. People assume that they could take more risk in order to compensate for their low saving rate. And, usually, those people has a 100/0 portfolio.
Do you consider a pre-tax savings rate of 40% to be low?
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Will, you keep saying that you are at 100/0 but in this very thread you have stated that you are aggressively paying down your mortgage (only 3.5 years left) and you have substantial funds in your Roth IRA invested in Wellesley. This is not a 100/0 portfolio. You have a portion of your portfolio at...
by willthrill81
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

There a lot of optimization of the mean and ignoring variance going on in this thread. Does anyone think a Monte-Carlo analysis of portfolio success/failure can help provide some insight? FWIW, I switched from 100/0 to 80/20 recently as a result of doing some Monte-Carlo analysis of portfolio alloc...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Both of these observations are rife with recency bias coupled with hindsight bias. If we had been having this conversation at the end of 1991... You picked the one ending year that made international look the best. By end of 1992, the 20-year average returns were back to even, and it's been all US ...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Have you done the math to see what your planned risk exposure across your life would translate into if you maintained a flat allocation until 55 or later? Since your portfolio in the later years will (presumably) be higher than today, it seems likely that your actual exposure will be similar to or ...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Have you done the math to see what your planned risk exposure across your life would translate into if you maintained a flat allocation until 55 or later? Since your portfolio in the later years will (presumably) be higher than today, it seems likely that your actual exposure will be similar to or ...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

However, that has not been the case for the last 30 years (1986-2016). Granted, some could argue that a 30 year time frame is too short I'd argue that after an asset class has been reasonably investable by individuals for 30 years, if that asset class trails by a whopping 3% per year, the logical c...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

OP: Please indulge me on extending your asset allocation model from from 20's to 60's. Please list your assumptions. Currently, I'm 35 and 100% equities. I'm planning a bit aggressively for retiring at 55, but if it needs to be delayed, that's fine. I anticipate staying 100% equities until I'm 45 (...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

willthrill81, You are a professor. You are supposedly an expert with the statistic. But, you do not understand the basic concept of personal finance. You are giving advice to individuals over the Internet forum. So, unless you can guarantee the person that he/she will not be forced into long-term e...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 64
Views: 8452

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

If you're young and planning on 1%-2% real returns going forward than fine, maybe you save too much. Worst case scenario is you get to retire early or become fabulously wealthy. You have time to adjust later when you find out what the markets ended up giving you. I mostly agree, although it is poss...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Given that most of us do not know whether our career will last 20 years. Then, the long-term return has no meaning to us. We do not have the time to get the return. So, please stop using the long-term return number for us. We do not have the above average luck in term of career. KlangFool I've alre...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Even Bogle himself is not a fan at all of going 50% U.S. / 50% International. And if you were to subscribe to the commonly suggested 20% International around here, I don't really know what you're accomplishing. That's 20% of your stock portfolio that's (perhaps arguably) likely to underperform, and...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

If we take a retirement period of 40 years, then things kind of line up around an SWR of 3.5% (min) or 4.0 (10% percentile) between all portfolios. And for sure, Larry's Portfolio did display nice properties if one is fond of low volatility and std-deviation. And I would accept that the use of othe...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I'm in my early 30s and am moving towards an 80/20 target. I am all for ignoring the noise and avoiding market timing, but you can't ignore that there are better odds of being heavy or light in your equity allocation depending on how long of an up (or down) swing there's been. Shifting a bit at the...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory on whether to go Roth 401k
Replies: 89
Views: 9571

Re: Theory on whether to go Roth 401k

Personally I tend to push for putting off taxes today. I would rather risk paying too much in taxes in the future than risk not having enough money because I overpaid my taxes years ago. YMMV +1 That's a very good way to evaluate the occasional uncertainty that comes with deciding which tax-advanta...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 23170

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

The more I read about investing both on Bogleheads and in books, the more I come away feeling that as a group, we habitually over-diversify. The logic generally goes "X might underperform, so own everything." Which, to me, is tantamount to repeatedly declining a $10 bet that pays $12 if you win and...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Percentile returns over time periods of the S&P 500
Replies: 7
Views: 3829

Re: Percentile returns over time periods of the S&P 500

This is fascinating material! Thank you for assembling it. To my mind, it tends to support the case that Jeremy Siegel and others have made for equity-heavy portfolios. I am approaching retirement, so the most important data in the chart for me concerns the probabilities of returns over shorter tim...
by willthrill81
Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 4599

Re: 3 fund portfolio

I am interested in the 3 fund portfolio, but does it work for income generation in retirement? Would it be as good as setting up a CD ladder and having dividend ETF or index fund? Read to see what Warren Buffett says about dividends. They are not usually the best way to generate income in retiremen...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

OP: Have you ever worked for a Fortune 500 Company? To be honest, that's none of your business. This thread is turning into personal attacks on me and my own experiences for some inexplicable reason. Apparently some do not like to have their beliefs, even when it comes to investment strategy, quest...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agrument for ROTH 401K
Replies: 36
Views: 2900

Re: Agrument for ROTH 401K

A few comments: first, heirs inheriting a Roth do have RMD's. It is the original owner of the Roth who has no RMD's. That is what can allow the Roth to continue to grow so much, whereas a traditional IRA or 401k has RMD's for the original owner. Good call. I didn't consider it to be a problem, thou...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

I agree that we all have to be continually retooling and upgrading our skills. I do so at the age of 62. But if you believe that an employer would rather hire someone in his/her upper 50's, supposedly with all these life skills, than someone in his/her upper 20's, then I can only say that you are c...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

A layoff in your 50s does not necessarily force you into retirement. I've seen many such people retool and go back into the workforce. Just curious. Retool and get a comparable paying job? Or even 75% pay? Can you give some examples? Do you really know many people in their 50s who have gone through...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Won the game', but what factors could potentially derail it?
Replies: 57
Views: 5883

Re: 'Won the game', but what factors could potentially derail it?

Think of all the taxes and savings type expenses that fall away once you are in retirement. Passive income isn't taxed for SS or Medicare, your mortgage will be paid off, kids through school, no more maxing 401ks or shoving an additional $X into the taxable account each year. If you are a saver a l...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agrument for ROTH 401K
Replies: 36
Views: 2900

Re: Agrument for ROTH 401K

Finally, the Roth has no RMD, so, from an estate-planning point of view, it has substantial value -- the ability to pass the entire corpus of the Roth on to heirs, who can continue to benefit from tax-free compounding for decades, has substantial value to folks who think they may never need to use ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 66995

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Back to your OP. In my humble opinion, if a 100% stock portfolio is too volatile for someone, for whatever reason, then they should probably consider making stocks no more than 70% of their portfolio. Is there something I'm missing here? No. You are not missing anything. A person who would sell in ...
by willthrill81
Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 64
Views: 8452

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

I am actually financially independent in the sense of the 4% rule. So the number that I will be using to plug into the retirement calculators is for the future retirement portfolio with about 75%/25% stock/bond. I think I am OK with the backtesting data results. But I need a number to give me a sim...