Search found 20712 matches

by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5851

Re: Bond alternatives

In my humble opinion, dividend paying stocks are NOT an alternative for bonds. Investment grade bonds serve at least 3 factors in your portfolio: diversification, income generation, and capital preservation. The low interest rate environment practically reduces/eliminates income generation factor. ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?
Replies: 74
Views: 5121

Re: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?

So now we are most excited by the idea of just paying off the mortgage completely. Whatever excites both of you the most is very likely going to be the best choice for you because (1) you're more likely to stick with it, (2) you're more likely to find ways to throw more money at it, and (3) you'll ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: confused about negative interest rates and deflation
Replies: 3
Views: 385

Re: confused about negative interest rates and deflation

Isn't that the definition of deflation? Deflation is defined as falling nominal prices for goods and services. This happened significantly in the Great Depression. But you can absolutely have negative real bonds yields in the presence of high inflation. This happened throughout the 1970s and early ...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?
Replies: 74
Views: 5121

Re: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?

One advantage about a 30-year mortgage is that it gives you payment flexibility should you incur some unforeseen expenses or have a job loss. You can also pay extra principal every month to pay it off in ~15 years. That flexibility comes with a price tag in the form of higher rates, about half a pe...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7790

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

"In Common Sense on Mutual Funds, [1] Jack Bogle suggests that a reasonable alternative to an index fund for some investors would be to hold a well-diversified portfolio of individual stocks, as long as they are held long-term, with a minimum of trading costs incurred." From the BH-wiki. The proble...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Uneasy Lies The Head That Wears The Crown" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 2381

Re: "Uneasy Lies The Head That Wears The Crown" by Jack Bogle

The temptation to “do something” is one of the worst temptations that investors face. There is always some bluebird on the horizon. Maybe it’s bitcoin or some other kind of coin. These things come and go. In an investor’s lifetime he’s going to be so much better off owning American businesses in th...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Battery issues - SHORT Drive due to COVID (Work From Home)
Replies: 86
Views: 5302

Re: Car Battery issues - SHORT Drive due to COVID (Work From Home)

I bought a solar panel that sits on the dashboard and have two cables from it that connect to the battery cables. It seems like the perfect solution to a discharging battery. Do I need to remove it every time it might rain? You need a charge controller between the solar panel and the battery to reg...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?
Replies: 74
Views: 5121

Re: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?

My spouse and I purchased our home in 2018 and ended up refinancing in 2019. (Balance is $520K at 3.84%.) Just after we refinanced, a relative died and left my husband ~$600K. We have been paying down our mortgage principal when we have extra money, since we are in our mid/late forties and would li...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7790

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

"In Common Sense on Mutual Funds, [1] Jack Bogle suggests that a reasonable alternative to an index fund for some investors would be to hold a well-diversified portfolio of individual stocks, as long as they are held long-term, with a minimum of trading costs incurred." From the BH-wiki. The proble...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7790

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

Just because things have been done for so long around here doesn't mean they can't change. I recall someone posted that in the beginning of this forum a 50/50 allocation was the norm. Look where we are now. I might be the next generation of the board's evolution. :) And there we have it. Why do you...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?
Replies: 74
Views: 5121

Re: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?

One advantage about a 30-year mortgage is that it gives you payment flexibility should you incur some unforeseen expenses or have a job loss. You can also pay extra principal every month to pay it off in ~15 years. That flexibility comes with a price tag in the form of higher rates, about half a pe...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: Wretchedly low return on bonds--game over

That's a roundabout way of saying that avoiding investment portfolio withdrawals for five years would have gone a long way toward avoiding the worst effects of sequence of returns risk. However, the future could obviously look quite different. YMMV. Not counting the bucket of money as part of the i...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension plan versus 401 K?
Replies: 15
Views: 1318

Re: Pension plan versus 401 K?

Hello! New to the forum. Thinking a lot about retirement lately. My husband has a pension plan through his employer, a large city government. Per their financial statements, it looks stable/healthy and always has been. Who the heck can predict what the future holds, but he knows many who have retir...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: Wretchedly low return on bonds--game over

That's a roundabout way of saying that avoiding investment portfolio withdrawals for five years would have gone a long way toward avoiding the worst effects of sequence of returns risk. However, the future could obviously look quite different. YMMV. Not counting the bucket of money as part of the i...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7790

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

This is why my recommendation is for people to build an index fund nest egg for securing a base level of retirement, before engaging in optional speculative activities with disposable income, should they feel inclined. The consequences of failure in individual stocks are much less severe if one has...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: Wretchedly low return on bonds--game over

For retirees he suggests calculating how much you need from your portfolio over the next five years Because the market will always recover in five years? exactly! Why 5 years? Seems like an arbitrary and inadequate timeframe to me. For retirees, unless you want to bunk with your kids (if you even h...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

The flexibility that universities have in spending probably depends greatly on what they are funding with their endowment funds. The large Ivy Leagues are probably funding a good chunk of their regular operations from their endowments, and those expenses are largely fixed . But the mid-sized public...
by willthrill81
Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747338

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I don't believe in the EMH. The adaptive market hypothesis makes more sense to me. Thanks, how does that apply to small vs large caps right now IYO? People holding onto smalls haven't adapted appropriately to market movements? Maybe I'm wrong, the EMH is right, small-caps are set to outperform. The...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Outdoor sauna: anyone got one?
Replies: 23
Views: 1897

Re: Outdoor sauna: anyone got one?

Wiring a 240 volt connection isn't difficult for someone who knows what they're doing. It will require a new breaker, so you might want to check to see if your breaker box is full yet. If it is, then a new box would be required, and that can be pricey.
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?
Replies: 74
Views: 5121

Re: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?

One advantage about a 30-year mortgage is that it gives you payment flexibility should you incur some unforeseen expenses or have a job loss. You can also pay extra principal every month to pay it off in ~15 years. That flexibility comes with a price tag in the form of higher rates, about half a pe...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

Again, the perpetual nature of endowments ensure this isn’t a short run volatility isn’t a problem. Of course they’ll smooth their actual consumption, but a floor of 5% levels plenty of room to maneuver so that the budget isn’t impaired due to portfolio volatility. They usually do not have "plenty ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747338

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yes, my foggy memory banks faintly recall the Apple Newton. That was almost before flush toilets. :wink: And being a Trekkie, I do know what the Borg is. Anywho, getting back to the topic at hand, the zooming NASDAQ makes me a bit nervous. High but not insane valuations, the "cool" factor, and pani...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747338

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yes, my foggy memory banks faintly recall the Apple Newton. That was almost before flush toilets. :wink: And being a Trekkie, I do know what the Borg is. Anywho, getting back to the topic at hand, the zooming NASDAQ makes me a bit nervous. High but not insane valuations, the "cool" factor, and pani...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747338

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime. Te...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best places to park around 25K?
Replies: 20
Views: 2443

Re: Best places to park around 25K?

bloom2708 wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:57 pm No free lunch.
I see that you haven't been experienced Costco's samples yet! :D
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?
Replies: 74
Views: 5121

Re: Should we refinance to a 15-year mortgage?

My spouse and I purchased our home in 2018 and ended up refinancing in 2019. (Balance is $520K at 3.84%.) Just after we refinanced, a relative died and left my husband ~$600K. We have been paying down our mortgage principal when we have extra money, since we are in our mid/late forties and would li...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond alternatives
Replies: 96
Views: 5851

Re: Bond alternatives

There are some good stable value funds out there still paying around 3%.
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Victim of online scam. problem with credit card dispute.
Replies: 95
Views: 5089

Re: Victim of online scam. problem with credit card dispute.

The problem is that even if the judge awards for the OP, the vendor is probably in a different country, and it will be virtually impossible to get them to pay, even with a judgment on them. Heck, it can be almost impossible in some situations to collect on a judgment levied against a U.S. citizen l...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

It seems people are arguing that the managers of the Harvard endowment are earning their salaries. That’s shocking. It’s an enormous endowment. 1 or 2 bad years won’t hurt them. And they still have money coming in..... I fail to see how they wouldn’t be better off stuffing it all in VTSAX or VBIAX....
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baseball cards - worth anything?
Replies: 26
Views: 3315

Re: Baseball cards - worth anything?

Now if you have old Magic the Gathering collectable trading cards, cards from the original first set can go as high as 6 figures in perfect condition. Many cards worth hundreds, so worth having someone evaluate a collection, as in demand cards are scarce and there are millions of players making for...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Victim of online scam. problem with credit card dispute.
Replies: 95
Views: 5089

Re: Victim of online scam. problem with credit card dispute.

Sorry OP, but you really have no recourse. Never, ever give your credit card information over the phone or online to anyone other than a business that you know and trust. Consider it a very inexpensive lesson. $120 is a drop in the bucket compared to your $5 million in savings. :beer Not true. File...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747338

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Thanks nedsaid. I agree that the tech valuations are crazy high. I too recall the tech bubble popping 20 years ago. The only difference this time is these companies print money. Boatloads of money. 20 years ago, we had internet companies with high valuations at the time that never turned a dime. Te...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

Again, the perpetual nature of endowments ensure this isn’t a short run volatility isn’t a problem. Of course they’ll smooth their actual consumption, but a floor of 5% levels plenty of room to maneuver so that the budget isn’t impaired due to portfolio volatility. That makes no sense at all. Unive...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7790

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

It seems too many people are so conditioned to failure so the only question asked is what if the return is lower than the index. What about what if the return is higher than the index? Isn't that a potentiality? Has anyone done this before to definitively say it doesn't work? Some selective stock p...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

I'm not sure I know precisely what you mean by '5% perpetual withdrawal rate'. Are you referring to 5% of the nominal portfolio balance being withdrawn each year (aka a percentage-of-portfolio approach)? Yes, this is the meaning I intended. PortfolioVisualizer has a good definition: Perpetual withd...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: Wretchedly low return on bonds--game over

UpperNwGuy wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:54 pm This is thread duplicates an earlier thread from this morning on this very same Clements article. Perhaps the moderators should combine the two threads.
Agreed. This is the thread you're referencing.
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

If they can’t beat a 70/30 or 60/40 market cap weighted portfolio with consistency, they aren’t earning their fees. I understand where you're coming from, but I can understand why some endowment managers may shy away from something like a 70/30 or 60/40 portfolio. Historically, most of the returns ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

Remember that half of the nation's households earn under $60k annually. A big chunk of that will be replaced by SS benefits alone. $400k is greater than the median net worth, including home equity, of the wealthiest age cohort in the nation (i.e. 60-64 year olds), so them having an additional $16k ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

Well even 400K$ is a relatively small amount for a retiree. That's just $400K in contributions, the total is likely much more. And that's not your entire portfolio. You might have another $500K in a Total Bond Fund and $1M in stocks. ^^ Agreed. Lauretta, would you agree that $400K is a huge amount ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"
Replies: 45
Views: 4345

Re: "What the Harvard endowment’s below-average grade can teach you about index funds and your investments"

If they can’t beat a 70/30 or 60/40 market cap weighted portfolio with consistency, they aren’t earning their fees. I understand where you're coming from, but I can understand why some endowment managers may shy away from something like a 70/30 or 60/40 portfolio. Historically, most of the returns ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for Peanut Butter With Little or No Added Sugar
Replies: 81
Views: 5074

Re: Recommendations for Peanut Butter With Little or No Added Sugar

We tried the natural peanut butter and it was horrible. Went with regular peanut butter with less sodium or something (I forget) and I really can’t taste the difference. My breakfast each day is coffee and one slice of peanut butter toast. The reason you probably didn't care for natural peanut butt...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baseball cards - worth anything?
Replies: 26
Views: 3315

Re: Baseball cards - worth anything?

I collected quite a lot of baseball cards in the early 1990s, and when I checked the value of most of them last year, most were practically worthless and certainly not worth any effort trying to sell them. They got trashed.
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

you have to pay for safety, with rare occasional exceptions(on a real basis, after tax, etc). Roughly in order of safety: Another instrument available to a number of people in their 401k or 403b is a decent stable value fund. Many are still paying around 3% and are quite secure. Ah right, thanks!! ...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hiking Smokey Mountain NP. Advice please
Replies: 14
Views: 1326

Re: Hiking Smokey Mountain NP. Advice please

Though Gatlinburg is crowded and touristy, it is in a great location relative to the park entrance on the northern side and there are plenty of places to stay. Another option is to stay south of the park around Cherokee or Bryson City. Good advice. I practically grew up in Gatlinburg and still like...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for Peanut Butter With Little or No Added Sugar
Replies: 81
Views: 5074

Re: Recommendations for Peanut Butter With Little or No Added Sugar

We tried the natural peanut butter and it was horrible. Went with regular peanut butter with less sodium or something (I forget) and I really can’t taste the difference. My breakfast each day is coffee and one slice of peanut butter toast. The reason you probably didn't care for natural peanut butt...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for Peanut Butter With Little or No Added Sugar
Replies: 81
Views: 5074

Re: Recommendations for Peanut Butter With Little or No Added Sugar

stoptothink wrote: Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 am
getthatmarshmallow wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:01 pm Adams No-Stir: peanuts, salt, and a bit of oil for emulsifying.
I wonder if Adams is just a Utah thing because I don't recall seeing it when living in or visiting other states. For us, it's a combination of Adams and grinding our own.
It's available to us in Washington state.
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"
Replies: 93
Views: 5261

Re: "Bonds as a way to generate cash if the stock market is in the toilet"

you have to pay for safety, with rare occasional exceptions(on a real basis, after tax, etc). Roughly in order of safety: FDIC insured accounts (HYSA, CD's, etc) Treasuries(to include I/EE bonds, tips, etc) Money Market funds(MMF) (Brokerage trade group Insured?) MYGA's (SPIC insured) Bank Accounts...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 7790

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

In the OPs initial scenario, (person can't invest until they are 45 years old) it seems like his premise is to "get rich quick". Yes, that appears to be a common reaction among those who realize that they are way behind with their savings and try to compensate by stock picking, going in for lots of...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone going for the Dragon portfolio?
Replies: 25
Views: 3010

Re: Anyone going for the Dragon portfolio?

How did silver and gold do from 1980 - 2000 compared to stocks and bonds? Your point is well taken as it would have been difficult for most investors to hold on to gold, which lost a lot during the period you refer to. But I would argue that portfolio performance is far more important than the indi...
by willthrill81
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying second house - dilemma
Replies: 46
Views: 5554

Re: Buying second house - dilemma

But my experience in real estate investing is that the largest return almost always comes from price appreciation , and the tax advantages of depreciation is another large contributor to the overall return. But, that is on properties chosen to be rentals from the start. I do not doubt that at all, ...