Search found 3348 matches

by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession or not
Replies: 21
Views: 2109

Re: Recession or not

Hi, I'm wondering why companies are reporting record earnings while the real economy is not doing well. Stock indexes are high and P/E ratios above average. Is this market for real or just too flush with stimulus money? I'm planning to move money marked funds into stocks but is now a good time or n...
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession or not
Replies: 21
Views: 2109

Re: Recession or not

It is difficult to accept that one cannot predict the market but it is the absolute truth/fact (have been wrong a few times) I rather not list all my investments, I work with a Vanguard advisor. He suggests to move 60% of my Roth IRA assets into VXUS - this fund has a poor return but the Vanguard t...
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession or not
Replies: 21
Views: 2109

Re: Recession or not

bloom2708 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:55 am
32.9% GDP contraction from April to June. I think that qualifies as a recession.
Following the bouncing ball daily here:

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession or not
Replies: 21
Views: 2109

Re: Recession or not

Hi, I'm wondering why companies are reporting record earnings while the real economy is not doing well. Stock indexes are high and P/E ratios above average. Is this market for real or just too flush with stimulus money? I'm planning to move money marked funds into stocks but is now a good time or n...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.
Replies: 87
Views: 4553

Re: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.

DB2 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:40 pm
I'm not sure why people are always starting new threads on this topic (or others for that matter). How many gold threads already exist?
Takes some of the pressure off of all the dividend threads. :beer
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12382

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Avoid gold at your peril. I do. It's one of the most environmentally destructive industries on the face of the planet. I grew up in the Black Hills where it has been and still is absolutely devastating to the region. I'm perfectly happy making money other ways and using other alternatives for portf...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12382

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Goldman Warns the Dollar's Grip on Global Markets Might Be Over Recommends investors keep buying gold, boosting forecasts Goldman Sachs Group Inc. put a spotlight on the suddenly growing concern over inflation in the U.S. by issuing a bold warning Tuesday that the dollar is in danger of losing its ...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12382

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Amy C. Arnott has not looked back over a very long period in history. My mentor Ray Dalio teaches that the long debt cycle lasts for about 70-100 years. We are currently at the end of such a cycle; therefore the situation is probably closest to the 1930's. When the debt burden is very high, and you...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start social security at 62 to invest it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7666

Re: Should I start social security at 62 to invest it?

Spurred by this thread, I spent some time yesterday reworking the code from Open Social Security to calculate a breakeven ROI for various sets of inputs for married couples -- then output it all to a spreadsheet. Here's the data dump for anybody curious: https://articles.opensocialsecurity.com/wp-c...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value-Growth Switching Strategy
Replies: 17
Views: 1139

Re: Value-Growth Switching Strategy

Any investing strategy that relies on "switching" doesn't seem like a good long-term strategy to me. In fact, I'm not sure I'd even call it investing. It is speculating if you're switching every three months. Constant buying and selling really isn't investing at all. Just because it worked once ove...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start social security at 62 to invest it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7666

Re: Should I start social security at 62 to invest it?

I just read that SS benefits will be cut to 75% starting in 2035 unless something changes. I'll have to model that and see if that affects the breakeven age. If you use i-ORP, by default it already calculates the 2035 change. 25% reduction in Social Security benefits in 2035 when the Trust Fund is ...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with evaluating current progress and any recommendation to changes
Replies: 3
Views: 376

Re: Help with evaluating current progress and any recommendation to changes

Yeah! It was 4 year vesting schedule - you only start to get a partial match after 2 years and I don't plan on staying around the whole 4 years. So the company says they match up to 4.4K a year but in my account it says 10K is contributed by employer. I'm calling the brokerage today to see.. but as...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start social security at 62 to invest it?
Replies: 74
Views: 7666

Re: Should I start social security at 62 to invest it?

I am strongly considering whether to start social security at 62 and invest the money in stocks. My wife and I are both 61. I have been retired for a year and she is retiring in 2 weeks. We do not need the money to live on. To explain my financial philosophy my whole career I saved a high salary % ...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with evaluating current progress and any recommendation to changes
Replies: 3
Views: 376

Re: Help with evaluating current progress and any recommendation to changes

Welcome to Bogleheads with your first post. Relax! You look to be doing quite well at age 24 with $340K. Very well done! :beer Many will ask for you to type the actual fund names in your post as very few have ticker symbols memorized from all of those sources. Very few have time to look them up to c...
by CyclingDuo
Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are dividends a reliable source of income for retirees?
Replies: 36
Views: 4876

Re: Are dividends a reliable source of income for retirees?

Serious dividend-oriented investors do not buy indexes. They invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks like selected utilities and huge consumer staples companies like Proctor & Gamble with consistently solid financials and a long commitment to paying a dividend. They avoid companies paying suspi...
by CyclingDuo
Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wow! Dare Not to Follow the Crowd
Replies: 69
Views: 11072

Re: Wow! Dare Not to Follow the Crowd

No, my wife and I did not go to boarding school. Both of us went through the public schools K-12 and met at a state university. The company we work for operates a private school K-9 and then pays for students to attend boarding schools around the world. The decision to not have our child attend a b...
by CyclingDuo
Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions for Rick Ferri and Paul Merriman?
Replies: 62
Views: 6246

Re: Questions for Rick Ferri and Paul Merriman?

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:10 pm
Every time Paul Merriman says small cap value, DRINK!
:beer Too funny!

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/06/ ... jLH4LqIjuA
by CyclingDuo
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New CPA requires drives's licenses
Replies: 8
Views: 1111

Re: New CPA requires drives's licenses

I'm looking for a new accountant and asked a prospective local CPA to go over my tax returns of the past couple of years to make sure that he feels competent in my particular tax situations. He sent me a long list of tax-related documents from me. He also asked for copies of driver's licenses as re...
by CyclingDuo
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Newly Dual-Dentist Couple
Replies: 25
Views: 1661

Re: Newly Dual-Dentist Couple

Hello all! My fiancée and myself (both dentists, newly graduated) are both 26 and we are getting married in early 2021. I am well versed in most things Boglehead (long-time reader), so I am hoping to just get your personal input based on your valuable life experiences! Situation : *She has ~220k at...
by CyclingDuo
Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Market vs Growth
Replies: 45
Views: 2542

Re: TOTAL MARKET VS GROWTH

I have a theory that Internet giants like Amazon, Netflix and so on have forever warped the "value will win out in the end!!!!1" argument. It's as if we had a solar system that had no gas giants in it, and suddenly we have a bunch of large and small Jupiters warping things towards growth. Sake insp...
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 122
Views: 10595

Re: How to protect one's investment in an index fund when there's a new stock entering the S&P500

steve321 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:27 pm
tibbitts wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:03 pm

Roughly 75% of your investments are in the S&P500 index, and 25% are in the S&P500 completion index. Not seeing the problem.
I don't understand what you mean. What is 'the S&P500 completion index.'?
The mid-caps and small-caps.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Extende ... index_fund
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: California Turbo Tax Users
Replies: 11
Views: 704

Re: California Turbo Tax Users

How long did it take for your state return to be accepted? My federal return was accepted immediately but my state return is still pending. Is this typical? I filed one state return using TurboTax in California on Tuesday and heard back that it was accepted less than 30 minutes later. CyclingDuo
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review - 13 years from retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1298

Re: Portfolio review - 13 years from retirement

Create SS accounts for each of you at: https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/ That way you can follow along . CyclingDuo I had tried that but many of their calculators don't work until you have 40 credits :-( Just checked and we currently have 6 years and 28 credits Thanks Understood. Also, check in with p...
by CyclingDuo
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review - 13 years from retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1298

Re: Portfolio review - 13 years from retirement

you won't get anything from social security in the u.s. at 60, most likely. Think I see the mistake on my part. US SAA would start paying out at 68 not 60- thanks ‘ To be eligible for Social Security, you must have a minimum of 10 years of covered employment, which equates to 40 credits in the Soci...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Jack and Vanguard Faithful Considering Fidelity Index Funds for Zero Minimum Investment
Replies: 82
Views: 5770

Re: Jack and Vanguard Faithful Considering Fidelity Index Funds for Zero Minimum Investment

Hello all, If I understand correctly, Fidelity offers low-cost (or even zero cost) index funds with zero minimum investment. I feel an emotional attachment to Vanguard and Jack Bogle, and I own only Vanguard mutual funds and ETFs (although I hold the ETFs at Fidelity). My wife is finally coming aro...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow at October 2019 levels!
Replies: 14
Views: 2276

Re: Dow at October 2019 levels!

Yes, thank you bogleheads for encouraging to hold during the fast and furious drop. The trolls and accounts that appeared out of nowhere during that time are all mostly gone. The constant sell, sell sell! during that time was awful to see. I'm very grateful for the level headed on this board. Some ...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Liability for Golf Ball Through Windshield
Replies: 93
Views: 5807

Re: Liability for Golf Ball Through Windshield

I thought it might be helpful to post my experience for someone who may run into this situation in the future. If any insurance agents are reading, or if anyone has gone through this, maybe they can add their perspective. Our HOA has a golf course where two of the holes run parallel to a 2 lane roa...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I fire my tax preparer?
Replies: 57
Views: 4611

Re: Should I fire my tax preparer?

1) By the end of today, make the payment required of the bad return filed by my preparer, even though I believe it's more than I actually owe. This would avoid penalties. I would opt to pay the amended amount by the end of today rather than the amount due on the return your preparer filed electroni...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow at October 2019 levels!
Replies: 14
Views: 2276

Re: Dow at October 2019 levels!

jebmke wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:01 am
As long as I have been investing (since late 70s), there has always been a day when the market reached levels it had been on some day in the past.
Not the DJIA, but illustrates the point of time...

Image
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I fire my tax preparer?
Replies: 57
Views: 4611

Re: Should I fire my tax preparer?

Definitely file an extension, make an estimated payment (if applicable), and you'll have several stress-free months to fix it yourself. I have done this and it's no big deal. I think I'm ready to just file with TT today. The main reason I hired a preparer is because TT's handling of RSUs and ESPPs ...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Deadline Tomorrow - Return (Presumably) Sitting in a Truck Somewhere
Replies: 47
Views: 2744

Re: Tax Deadline Tomorrow - Return (Presumably) Sitting in a Truck Somewhere

Bingo! Paper return is based on the postmark. That's why you are allowed to send a return off on the April 15th deadline, or in this year's case the July 15th deadline. Some states even extended their deadlines beyond July 15th due to Covid19. You will not be penalized since yours was postmarked co...
by CyclingDuo
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due to high taxes should I just max out employers 401K
Replies: 24
Views: 3295

Re: Due to high taxes should I just max out employers 401K

Based on my options in my 401K I have chosen: 60% BSPIX iShares S&P 500 Index (ER .100%) 20% MDIIX iShares MSCi International Index A (ER .350%) 20% FXNAX Fidelity US Bond Index Fund (ER.025%) These are ALL of my 401k options thru empower: NMSAX Columbia Small Cap Index A 0.45% NTIAX Columbia Mid C...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming teacher after reaching FIRE? Advice needed!
Replies: 86
Views: 6960

Re: Becoming teacher after reaching FIRE? Advice needed!

According to SSA, 35 states teachers participate in SS. Fifteen states do not. There are a few of the 15 states that kinda participate. Many of those 15 states account for it somewhat by having a more generous pension payout plan than the other 35. Regardless, for the 35 states that do participate ...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QQQ and/or TSM only for stocks going forward?
Replies: 28
Views: 2721

Re: QQQ and/or TSM only for stocks going forward?

Please give me one company name that was not replaced or overtaken by another one in last 150 years... Just a few for starters... Colgate (1806), Jim Beam (1795), JP Morgan (1799), Remington (1816), Citigroup (1812), DuPont (1802), Cigna (1792), John Deere (1837), Crane & Company (1799), etc... . I...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Deadline Tomorrow - Return (Presumably) Sitting in a Truck Somewhere
Replies: 47
Views: 2744

Re: Tax Deadline Tomorrow - Return (Presumably) Sitting in a Truck Somewhere

I've never filed a late tax return before. If you sent it in March, it is not late. "Late" is determined by the postmark, not when they get it. Bingo! Paper return is based on the postmark. That's why you are allowed to send a return off on the April 15th deadline, or in this year's case the July 1...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting rid of a bat!!!
Replies: 25
Views: 1520

Re: Getting rid of a bat!!!

Be careful when dealing with a bat on your own. Rabies shots are not fun. Some bats are also a protected species. Check the laws and regulations for your state and type of bat. We ran into that 17 years ago in an old rental house. They were flying all over the neighborhood, some were roosting in th...
by CyclingDuo
Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QQQ and/or TSM only for stocks going forward?
Replies: 28
Views: 2721

Re: QQQ and/or TSM only for stocks going forward?

Please give me one company name that was not replaced or overtaken by another one in last 150 years... Just a few for starters... Colgate (1806), Jim Beam (1795), JP Morgan (1799), Remington (1816), Citigroup (1812), DuPont (1802), Cigna (1792), John Deere (1837), Crane & Company (1799), etc... . I...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due to high taxes should I just max out employers 401K
Replies: 24
Views: 3295

Re: Due to high taxes should I just max out employers 401K

Based on my options in my 401K I have chosen: 60% BSPIX iShares S&P 500 Index (ER .100%) 20% MDIIX iShares MSCi International Index A (ER .350%) 20% FXNAX Fidelity US Bond Index Fund (ER.025%) These are ALL of my 401k options thru empower: NMSAX Columbia Small Cap Index A 0.45% NTIAX Columbia Mid C...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21277

Re: How is this possible -- stock market continues to soar.

A bad flu season usually costs us around 65,000 lives so 140,000 out of a population of 300,000,000+ is incredibly sad and very tragic (especially on a personal level) but nowhere near the estimate of up to 2 million we were hearing when the selloff occurred as I remembered. Then you have the of pr...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21277

Re: How is this possible -- stock market continues to soar.

And yet between then and now 137,191 people have died in this country from a pandemic in which we have been totally isolated in our home from March 8 onward. Hey, Disney opened - so it's all a fairy tale. 8-) I will just address the isolation portion of your comments regarding our situation... Not ...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due to high taxes should I just max out employers 401K
Replies: 24
Views: 3295

Re: Due to high taxes should I just max out employers 401K

Based on my options in my 401K I have chosen: 60% BSPIX iShares S&P 500 Index (ER .100%) 20% MDIIX iShares MSCi International Index A (ER .350%) 20% FXNAX Fidelity US Bond Index Fund (ER.025%) These are ALL of my 401k options thru empower: NMSAX Columbia Small Cap Index A 0.45% NTIAX Columbia Mid C...
by CyclingDuo
Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Investors-face-a-scary-out-of-whack-scenario...
Replies: 13
Views: 1995

Re: Article: Investors-face-a-scary-out-of-whack-scenario...

Any thoughts on this article? Here are the first couple of paragraphs from the article: "If it weren’t for the “Giant 5,” your money would have been better off sitting in cash than the stock market over the past few years, according to Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog. Yes, investment gains sin...
by CyclingDuo
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming teacher after reaching FIRE? Advice needed!
Replies: 86
Views: 6960

Re: Becoming teacher after reaching FIRE? Advice needed!

I'm thinking of going into teaching as a second career after reaching my $ target for FIRE - trying to make sure I consider every aspect of this move. Would appreciate any insights/advice from this community...especially teachers and those who have continued to work in a second career after reachin...
by CyclingDuo
Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just buy & hold no matter what? VTI?
Replies: 18
Views: 2131

Re: Just buy & hold no matter what? VTI?

I know it’s impossible to time the market, but say we hit another low like we did in March. Should I just be buying on the way down? Should I sell and take some gains and then rebuy? In other words, you're asking: "I know it's impossible to time the market, but can I maybe try to time the market?" ...
by CyclingDuo
Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just buy & hold no matter what? VTI?
Replies: 18
Views: 2131

Re: Just buy & hold no matter what? VTI?

welcome to the forum. these are market timing questions. I'll give you a pass because you're new at this. But the general advice is to buy and hold. There are many reasons for this but I'll give you one or two. You say "take profits" but this assumes that the market won't keep going up. But what if...
by CyclingDuo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current problems with 3 fund approach
Replies: 45
Views: 3681

Re: Current problems with 3 fund approach

JL Collins thinks you can skip the international component entirely since United States companies are exposed to international markets anyway. I think he might be right. He's not right. I mean, I don't know who JL Collins is, but if he actually said that he's wrong. You need to acquaint yourself wi...
by CyclingDuo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11296

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

The heart of your question is whether this time is different. Well, before the recent run up I would have given you an emphatic no. With all these "stay at home" stocks being pumped up with no earnings and really no prospect of capitalizing on their newfound user base, I'm not entirely sure that th...
by CyclingDuo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Three Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 2316

Re: Alternative to Three Fund Portfolio?

I just read an article that suggested instead of investing in S&P or Total Stock Market Index Fund, to instead diversify equally among large cap growth, large cap value, small cap growth and small cap value funds. Would love to know your thoughts about this. Also, article said that if you are going...
by CyclingDuo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - lost our way
Replies: 10
Views: 1547

Re: Portfolio Review - lost our way

Dear all, We have learned so much from this board. We have been consolidating and trying to simplify over the past few years. We have gotten a little lost in what steps we need to take next to improve. Any advice would be appreciated! Emergency funds: Yes, 6 months. Debt: Mortgage: 415,000 (3.875%)...
by CyclingDuo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too much in savings?
Replies: 83
Views: 9585

Re: Too much in savings?

Background (my wife and I combined): Age: 38 Income: 550-600k No debt except home mortgage (175k on home worth 380k) We max out 401k's, backdoor Roth's. Put $600 monthly split into 2 children's 529 (purposely don't max out bc don't like the lack of flexibility associated w it). We have 1.1m in Ally...