Search found 153 matches

by McGilicutty
Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So, I'm going to gamble (for fun) and buy some individual stocks. Best way?
Replies: 65
Views: 5402

Re: So, I'm going to gamble (for fun) and buy some individual stocks. Best way?

My advice: Wait to buy until mid-February. I think there is a market correction coming. I can feel it in me bones.

Also, add MU and SRPT to your list.
by McGilicutty
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 8063

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

nisiprius wrote:Was it clear from context that this was a recommendation for other investors, or was he just saying "this is what I do?"
He was just saying "this is what I do."
by McGilicutty
Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 8063

Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

Jack Bogle was on CNBC today. He said that his bond allocation was about fifty-fifty short-term to intermediate term because long-term bond prices are just too volatile for him. I didn't hear him mention what his bond-to-equity allocation was.
by McGilicutty
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A few very basic investing theory questions that have bugged me lately
Replies: 49
Views: 6075

Re: A few very basic investing theory questions that have bugged me lately

For number 3, most companies provide some type of stock-based compensation to upper management which gives management an incentive to care about the stock price. Also, companies sometimes raise money in secondary offerings (stock offerings after the IPO) at market price, so that is another reason to...
by McGilicutty
Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Purchase
Replies: 99
Views: 14580

Re: Bitcoin Purchase

Bitcoin down another 8% today to $820.
by McGilicutty
Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What monetary value has your education provided you?
Replies: 107
Views: 7641

Re: What monetary value has your education provided you?

I have a BS and an MS in Computer Science. I went to school in the 90's at a fairly cheap state school and my MS was paid for by a research assistantship. I'm an introvert and couldn't imagine trying to do anything other than computer programming, so the value of my degrees is incalculable. In any e...
by McGilicutty
Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 13
Views: 2658

S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

It sure is nice to make money just by sitting on the old keister.
by McGilicutty
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global debt is 325% of GDP
Replies: 15
Views: 1581

Re: Global debt is 325% of GDP

Venezuela would be scarier. Of course, if all countries go through hyperinflation at the same to reduce their debt, their currencies couldn't really devalue.... Venezuela is unlikely (at least here in the U.S.). If you look at Japan, they have high debt levels, but since it is issued in their own c...
by McGilicutty
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global debt is 325% of GDP
Replies: 15
Views: 1581

Re: Global debt is 325% of GDP

For countries (like the U.S.) who sell debt denominated in their own currencies, it's not just the amount of debt that you need to look at, but also the average maturity of that debt. There was an economist a while back (I can't find the article) who showed that with average maturities of around 7 y...
by McGilicutty
Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Purchase
Replies: 99
Views: 14580

Re: Bitcoin Purchase

Yowza. Bitcoin down another 12% today to $880. I know, I know, long-term 'investors' in this ponzi scheme are still up.
by McGilicutty
Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 247
Views: 40177

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

CRAZY DONKEY HEDGEPIE

SHORT: SYRG, WLL, XOM

LONG: ULTA, ALB, NVDA
by McGilicutty
Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Experienced investor: For your portfolio, at what point compound interest really kick in for you? $500k? $1million+?
Replies: 35
Views: 5309

Re: Experienced investor: For your portfolio, at what point compound interest really kick in for you? $500k? $1million+

I would say you can feel it at $500K. With that much invested in SPY you made about $7,000 the first two market days of this year. Of course, you gave some of that back today, but that's still a pretty good (but atypical) return for two days.
by McGilicutty
Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Purchase
Replies: 99
Views: 14580

Re: Bitcoin Purchase

Oof. Coindesk shows Bitcoin down 15% right now to $965. What is the P/E of Bitcoin anyway?
by McGilicutty
Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times: It’s Time to Ignore Advice About Which Stocks to Buy in 2017
Replies: 4
Views: 867

Re: New York Times: It’s Time to Ignore Advice About Which Stocks to Buy in 2017

This is a poorly written article. The S&P 500 was up 11.96% last year (including dividends).
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Maybe instead of chanting 'U-S-A', investors should be thinking 'C-A-P-E'?"
Replies: 18
Views: 2733

Re: "Maybe instead of chanting 'U-S-A', investors should be thinking 'C-A-P-E'?"

Yes, the U.S. CAPE is high, but what other country would you feel comfortable investing in?
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All your eggs in one basket vs. concern about being hacked?
Replies: 41
Views: 6599

Re: All your eggs in one basket vs. concern about being hacked?

I check my account balance every day and the brokerage I use (Interactive Brokers) allows me to see any pending transfers. Maybe Vanguard also allows you to see pending transfers? Also, Interactive Brokers uses two-factor (e.g., a card with codes they send you in the mail) authentication in addition...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE fear
Replies: 1
Views: 484

CAPE fear

Interesting article on the S&P 500 and CAPE: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-expiration-date-p-500-103001758.html Some excerpts: Valuation, history shows, is an awful tool for market timing. Equity cycles persist, and selling just because price-earnings ratios are high has repeatedly proven a mist...
by McGilicutty
Wed Dec 28, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of your belly........
Replies: 82
Views: 12843

Re: How to get rid of your belly........

Runner01 wrote:Lots of bro science going on in this thread.
If you want the science behind why a low-carb diet works, check out the book Protein Power. It's written by a couple of doctors and they go into science of how a person's body responds to carbs versus protein.
by McGilicutty
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Picking Individual Stocks Is Dangerous
Replies: 58
Views: 7033

Re: Picking Individual Stocks Is Dangerous

And then there is the Motley Fool's RuleBreaker portfolio from the 1990's. That was a lottery ticket that paid off HUGE!

That's the approach I'm taking -- have about 90% of my portfolio in stock index ETFs and then use the other 10% to try and pick winning stock lottery tickets.
by McGilicutty
Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency Hedge Funds (More Like VC Funds for Cryptocurrencies...)
Replies: 31
Views: 3147

Re: Cryptocurrency Hedge Funds (More Like VC Funds for Cryptocurrencies...)

Before you invest in Bitcoin, I suggest you take a look at https://www.reddit.com/r/SorryForYourLoss/ . Bitcoin seems really hard to use and prone to expensive errors (e.g., people losing all their Bitcoin via getting hacked). For some reason the price of Bitcoin has went up a lot this year, which i...
by McGilicutty
Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much??? [did you save when you retired?]
Replies: 16
Views: 3269

Re: How much???

I had saved $750,000. I can live pretty comfortably on $30,000 per year, so $750K was 25x my expenses. After a few years of stock market gains I now have over 30x of expenses saved.
by McGilicutty
Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you check your index price?
Replies: 8
Views: 1123

Re: Where do you check your index price?

As long as you have the tickers, you could try Yahoo Finance or Google Finanance.
by McGilicutty
Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle backfire?
Replies: 81
Views: 13718

Re: Bogle backfire?

Now that I have more than 25x my annual spending saved up and invested in SPY, I plan to start investing in individual stocks. One of the first stocks I wanted to buy was Nvidia. Their GPUs seem to be at the center of AI, automated driving, and gaming. When I first started thinking about Nvidia, it ...
by McGilicutty
Sat Dec 24, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If day trading works, shouldn't there be successful companies with proven track record?
Replies: 20
Views: 2467

Re: If day trading works ,,shouldn't there be successful companies with proven track record?

No. This isn't luck. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/how-renaissance-s-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box So Renaissance supposedly has some magical internal fund that has returned 80% per year but their open-to-some-of-the-public hedge funds are doing less than average...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will ETFs make mutual index funds obsolete?
Replies: 28
Views: 2695

Re: Will ETFs make mutual index funds obsolete?

nisiprius wrote:Do you realize they're not even putting 6 ounces of yogurt in the cups any more?
It's kind of like SoftSoap. The containers keep getting smaller and smaller. I guess it's so they can keep the price under a buck. Heck, I can barely get 10 hand washes out of a container of SoftSoap anymore.
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Afraid of retirement??
Replies: 55
Views: 5468

Re: Afraid of retirement??

I've never been afraid of retirement, but I do have a phobia of going to work and having to interact with the idiots that one can find there. I was glad to leave those idiots behind and to be able to choose who I hang out with in retirement.
by McGilicutty
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hello and a Question about the "4% Rule"
Replies: 55
Views: 5170

Re: Hello and a Question about the "4% Rule"

Hi Bob, You might be interested in playing around with FireCalc: http://firecalc.com/ Firecalc shows that for the supposedly safe 4% withdrawal rate there is still a 5.2% chance of having a negative portfolio value within 30 years. This is using 116 years worth of past data. So the 4% withdrawal rat...
by McGilicutty
Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7879

Re: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

MEA wrote:A peace bubble is what worries me. When/if we get a replacement for oil the world is going to become a extremely dangerous place.
A peace bubble is probably the most worrisome. If someone/some country decides to use nukes, then a stock portfolio may never recover.
by McGilicutty
Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ne er-do-wells coming out of woodwork
Replies: 32
Views: 7846

Re: Ne er-do-wells coming out of woodwork

My dad (65, widowed) went and got himself a 32 year-old girlfriend. He's already bought her a car and he also bought a vacation home in Florida (I haven't asked him who's name it's in). His 'girlfriend' seems to always have some type of new trinket on her hand, wrist, and/or neck. There's not much I...
by McGilicutty
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index funds is the reason for overvalued market
Replies: 23
Views: 3977

Re: Index funds is the reason for overvalued market

I think anyone who invests in a hedge fund, with their 2% of principal and 20% of gains fees, is a fool. Ackman is looking for more fools.
by McGilicutty
Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $14,000? [age 26 student]
Replies: 8
Views: 1590

Re: How to invest $14,000? [age 26 student]

For option #2, my concern is taxes. When do I pay taxes and how bad is the hit? You only pay taxes on your dividends and your capital gains when you sell. The current yield on SCHB is 1.7%. 1.7% times $14,000 is $238. So, your first year you would pay taxes on $238. That amount will probably go up ...
by McGilicutty
Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 5801

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

I see no reason to slice and dice. I bet if those who did it actually compared their returns to the total return of the S&P 500, they would be disappointed. 100% SPY for me and no complaints. I've tracked my returns yearly since 1999 and this is definitely not true for my portfolio. What did you in...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good News For Bonds!
Replies: 98
Views: 13241

Re: My simple asset-allocation plan in retirement

1. I determine the amount of money I cannot afford to lose and put this amount in Vanguard Total Bond Market and my checking account. This doesn't quite work. You can definitely lose money in Vanguard Total Bond Market if enough people request their money back from the fund causing the fund to sell...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?
Replies: 57
Views: 7879

What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

Just curious. What do you think is in more of a bubble right now?

(1) U.S. Stocks (the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is at 26 for chrissakes!, etc.)

(2) long-term bonds (government stimulus is going to cause inflation to go up which will be heckish on long-term bonds, etc.)

(3) Other
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs dangerous?
Replies: 6
Views: 1205

Re: Are ETFs dangerous?

As I understand it, if the net asset value of the ETF falls below the value of the underlying index, big institutional investors can arbitrage by buying the ETF and selling the basket of stocks comprising the ETF. A simple example: Value of underlying index = 100 value of corresponding ETF = 90 By a...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $14,000? [age 26 student]
Replies: 8
Views: 1590

Re: How to invest $14,000? [age 26 student]

A two-year note is paying about 1.1% while you can get a two-year CD at bankrate.com that pays 1.3%. If you plan to pull out and invest in real estate in 2 years, I would just put it in a two-year CD. Edit: I hadn't heard of I Bonds before but it looks like that would be the way to go in this case. ...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice * Edited*
Replies: 13
Views: 1300

Re: Investment Advise * Edited*

My advisor's explanation is that the the 3 main sectors we are invested in havent done as well as the rest. He also says that I shouldnt forget about the dividend which are a cushion against value loss. He'll say anything to keep that 1.2% fee rolling in. Here is a link to a spreadsheet I created w...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good News For Bonds!
Replies: 98
Views: 13241

Re: Bonds are for Safety

Quark wrote: There are people who live off of bond interest, with a smattering of stock for diversification. For these people, bonds have a different function.
Who are these people? Do they just have massive portfolios are did they buy bonds years ago when interest rates were higher?
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice * Edited*
Replies: 13
Views: 1300

Re: Investment Advise

Paying 1.2% is bad. Paying 1.2% while being down 11% should be criminal in my opinion. I like VTSAX and VTIAX at your 80/20 allocation. My advice would be to move all of that $150K from the Chase dividend portfolio to VTSAX and VTIAX at your current allocation. Hopefully Chase won't charge you an ar...
by McGilicutty
Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it pointless to hold an index fund in a taxable account?
Replies: 7
Views: 1546

Re: Is it pointless to hold an index fund in a taxable account?

ResearchMed wrote: It's not quite clear what you mean by stating that the taxable account "will have taxed my assets the entire time".
RM
Yeah, your taxable account would only be taxed on distributions and when you sell.
by McGilicutty
Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Twenty Ways To Tell If You're A Lousy Investor"
Replies: 57
Views: 7422

Re: "Twenty Ways To Tell If You're A Lousy Investor"

How does owning individual stocks make you a bad investor?
by McGilicutty
Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!
Replies: 34
Views: 7922

Re: FED Raises Rates - Sky Falls! Bond Prices are UP!

What's interesting to me is that folks on this forum state the market has things "priced in." It seemed the rate increase would have been priced in yesterday, yet markets are down today. It's that old maxim: "buy the rumour, sell the news". Plus, the Fed went from projecting 2 rate hikes next year ...
by McGilicutty
Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 8459

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

Compare the returns of the Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index since its inception in 1996 to the S&P 500 and you will see that the S&P 500 just crushes it. No reason to take the risk of investing in foreign countries when you can get great returns just by investing in the U.S.
by McGilicutty
Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 5801

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

I see no reason to slice and dice. I bet if those who did it actually compared their returns to the total return of the S&P 500, they would be disappointed.

100% SPY for me and no complaints.
by McGilicutty
Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1989

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

The 4% SWR is an unverifiable proposition that, based on past market performances, a given asset-allocated portfolio (usually 60% equities, 40% bonds) is likely to survive future market conditions for a given period (usually 30 years) at the given initial value of the portfolio (usually 4%) but is ...
by McGilicutty
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Replies: 44
Views: 6035

Re: DOW

I'll let you know on December 30th (or maybe even earlier). :D
by McGilicutty
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1989

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

I thought the whole purpose of a 4% SWR was that your AWR may go up, but eventually the market would recover and your portfolio would survive over a 30-year period?