Search found 3043 matches

by marcopolo
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 441
Views: 35103

Re: Retirement Friendly States

We recently retired and moved to the Big Island. Like I said, no place is perfect. We are in our early 50s, and fairly healthy and active. Someday, the need for better healthcare may become an issue, or maybe it will improve here. But, for now we are enjoying everything this place has to offer. Eas...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

Nailed it. I set traditional to 0% stock and 92% bonds (the remaining 8% being cash), and Roth to 99% stock and 0% bonds (the remaining 1% being cash). (I am going to have a "bond tent' at the outset of retirement (proceeds from sale of home) so converting from bonds to stock as part of the Roth co...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

I was playing with i-orp (extended) and it clearly wants you to do Roth conversions early - because it yields a higher disposable income overall, based on its calculations. But why? It seems like cramming conversions into the first few years of retirement would trigger high tax rates - higher than ...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107787

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Unless there's actually an economic collapse, I do not think the outlook will get much worse than today. The shock of Trump's statement yesterday is sinking in. 100-240k dead is more than many investors expected. There are rumors that margin calls on banks may cause a financial industry disaster. I...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

The goal I set in playing with the spread sheets is to try to Does flattening your taxes over remaining lifetime also minimize them? That is the part I was not sure about. That's true, I suppose there could be a situation where you come out ahead by paying much higher taxes in some years and much l...
by marcopolo
Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

The goal I set in playing with the spread sheets is to try to flatten the tax burden as much as possible over my projected lifetime. Not even sure if this is optimal. Maximizing spendable dollars may be a better criteria, I will have to think about that. Wouldn't those be the same thing? If you min...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 541
Views: 45043

Re: College in fall

You're right that it's the same financial decision as before, but many students/parents are only willing to pay for certain universities because of the total experience associated with attendance, not just the degree at the end. If that experience is severely compromised due to the education being ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 541
Views: 45043

Re: College in fall

My youngest son's college just announced,everyone will be back the 2nd week of August, and going home after Thanksgiving. Dorms will all be converted to singles, students will wear face masks and socially distance at all times (yah right), no visitors. Classes will be a mix of F2F and online, he wi...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

I was playing with i-orp (extended) and it clearly wants you to do Roth conversions early - because it yields a higher disposable income overall, based on its calculations. But why? It seems like cramming conversions into the first few years of retirement would trigger high tax rates - higher than ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

I was playing with i-orp (extended) and it clearly wants you to do Roth conversions early - because it yields a higher disposable income overall, based on its calculations. But why? It seems like cramming conversions into the first few years of retirement would trigger high tax rates - higher than ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107787

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

When someone comes along and tells them they are stupid for investing the way that they do, I am not at all surprised that they defend their ideas, sometimes quite forcefully. Did the OP tell anyone that they were stupid for buying and holding? The OP actually said this: I know this is a risk and I...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Why does doing Roth conversions early yield higher disposable income?

I was playing with i-orp (extended) and it clearly wants you to do Roth conversions early - because it yields a higher disposable income overall, based on its calculations. But why? It seems like cramming conversions into the first few years of retirement would trigger high tax rates - higher than ...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107787

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

To put it mildly, this forum could be more intellectually honest in debates about approaches that differ from the canon. Others have been treated far worse than me I think, maybe because I don't feel compulsion to have someone else agree with me. But based on some observations of what happens here,...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FZROX or FSKAX in 401 rollover to Fidelity
Replies: 14
Views: 537

Re: FZROX or FSKAX in 401 rollover to Fidelity

But, you are generalizing (perhaps your experience) about 401k plans costs and fund availability. What you say may be true for your plan, but is not true in general. Many 401k have fees tacked on, it depends on how much of the fees the employer absorbs. Many 401k also have limited selection of fund...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FZROX or FSKAX in 401 rollover to Fidelity
Replies: 14
Views: 537

Re: FZROX or FSKAX in 401 rollover to Fidelity

I always make it a point to discourage roll over of 401k funds into IRA plans, based on the asset protections. Do not give up those protections easily, without at least giving it some serious thought. If you do decide to still rollover to an IRA, so be it, but at least you will have made an informe...
by marcopolo
Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107787

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

And why, pray tell, did the OP 'disappear'? Read his posts on pages 16-17 of this thread, and you'll see that he experienced the same issue that I did: relentless and unmitigated criticism that devolved into downright attacks. Why would he continue to subject himself to that? Some of the OP's last ...
by marcopolo
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6574
Views: 553948

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Actually as of the end of April I am retired but nevertheless I would be happy with a couple months of sideways. Hope it goes better for you this time, and you are not one of those people you have been cautioning about lately: I am saying that they are underestimating the issues that arise in the b...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DCA frequency
Replies: 24
Views: 1074

Re: DCA frequency

I will need to see the thread about lump sum comparison. It seems to me that lump sum investing is timing the market which everyone would agree is not optimal. In terms of context there isn’t much, I have about 50K and and won’t need the money for the foreseeable future. It is actually the opposite...
by marcopolo
Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 Plan Strategy
Replies: 31
Views: 2110

Re: 529 Plan Strategy

Way too many posts worrying about overfunding a 529. I think that the risk is overrated. There's a crisis of kids graduating with massive college debt...there's no crisis of graduating with too much money in the bank. Yes, sure, there may be one or two people here who ended up with more money that ...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 107
Views: 10235

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

I agree with most of the points you have made in your back and forth with nigel_ht, but I am a bit skeptical about your claims about LMP. 1) I don't think "most" here would agree that is the best solution, vs a balanced portfolio. 2) You mentioned that DCA is mental gymnastics (i agree). The same c...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 107
Views: 10235

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

Nice dodge. Where is your data supporting that Trinity and 60/40 doesn’t work. Last comment to set record straight. This is completely out of context, I never said the whole Trinity study is unusable (never said dead), it was in a specific context with regard to Sequence of Returns Risk where you c...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29179

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

hoops777 wrote: I wonder where the stock market would be today if left on its own without the Fed doing it’s thing the last 12 years. The perennial bulls have been saved time and time again and it looks clearly like that will not change anytime soon. Is it good? Maybe there will be unintended conse...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29179

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

hoops777 wrote: I wonder where the stock market would be today if left on its own without the Fed doing it’s thing the last 12 years. The perennial bulls have been saved time and time again and it looks clearly like that will not change anytime soon. Is it good? Maybe there will be unintended conse...
by marcopolo
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29179

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

the article was published in january 2013. since then the compound average annual return (CAGR) of the Vanguard total stock market index has been 12.8% per year Which, of course, means that Bernstein, along with many other 'experts', was completely, totally wrong in his prediction of low returns, b...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29179

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

the article was published in january 2013. since then the compound average annual return (CAGR) of the Vanguard total stock market index has been 12.8% per year Which, of course, means that Bernstein, along with many other 'experts', was completely, totally wrong in his prediction of low returns, b...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?
Replies: 18
Views: 975

Re: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?

Meb Faber wrote a book on the country CAPE strategy. Sadly he didn't launch a straightforward ETF to employ it; Maybe not so sad. Meb Faber also wrote about Tactical Asset Allocation. In that case, he did start an investment vehicle to implement it (GTAA), it did not go so well... GTAA is now GAA b...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?
Replies: 18
Views: 975

Re: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?

Forester wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:25 pm
Meb Faber wrote a book on the country CAPE strategy. Sadly he didn't launch a straightforward ETF to employ it;
Maybe not so sad. Meb Faber also wrote about Tactical Asset Allocation. In that case, he did start an investment vehicle to implement it (GTAA), it did not go so well...
by marcopolo
Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29179

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

Successful countries with all the prerequisites for persistent wealth creation like the US are expected to generate lower but more stable and likely more reliable returns over long periods of time. Interesting read. I would say the US was a successful country with persistent wealth creation even 30...
by marcopolo
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 441
Views: 35103

Re: Retirement Friendly States

Hawaii has great beach and resort weather year round. Wonderful if you are visiting. Wonderful to live there as long as one is adaptable. Though it may be the 51 'st state, it is a bit different than the USA. However, living in Hawaii is interesting: Unique Island Culture and Hawaii-centric points ...
by marcopolo
Sun May 31, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA Healthcare moving during the year
Replies: 5
Views: 429

Re: ACA Healthcare moving during the year

Looks like we (Myself and Wife) may change our residence from NC to AZ over the summer Both states are ranked slightly under middle of the pack so I'm guessing I'm not looking at any great improvement in health care. I did a preliminary review of whats involved in migrating our ACA policy from NC t...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?
Replies: 46
Views: 2268

Re: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?

I have read many similar postings with many people on the fence as to whether or not to convert early (before 65) or starting at 65. I'm hoping you can assess my new plan. My plan has been ACA subsidies until 65. However, I now believe it's likely, with the recent trillions allocated by our gov't f...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 10355

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

To be honest I don't understand how 90+% of those who FIRE before 50 believe they are FI or can actually live the lifestyle to which they aspire. It just seems like most are headed for a hard landing later in life when there is little chance of recovery. In many ways it just seems like a different ...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?
Replies: 46
Views: 2268

Re: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?

Expected Accounts at retirement... Pre-Tax: $1850k Taxable (equities): $839k Taxable CDs: $200k Is "pre-tax" money in traditional IRA/401k? About 40% IRA, 60% 401k. I plan to roll into the IRA next year. No backdoor Roth without aggravation. Without know your other income situation (pensions, SS, e...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?
Replies: 46
Views: 2268

Re: Forget ACA subsidies and Max out Roth conversions early?

I have read many similar postings with many people on the fence as to whether or not to convert early (before 65) or starting at 65. I'm hoping you can assess my new plan. My plan has been ACA subsidies until 65. However, I now believe it's likely, with the recent trillions allocated by our gov't f...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 10355

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Agree health insurance is expensive. But, this discussion was about FatFIRE, which I think is supposed to mean being in great financial shape to retire early with a very nice style of living. If one has to work to get subsidized health insurance, I am just having a hard time seeing how they could b...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 10355

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Me and SO should be on track to FATFire around 45-50. However, I don't want to just sit at home at this time. In our 40s and 50s I would have worked 20+ years in software engineering and would have developed significant skills there to perhaps do something in that space. We are currently in our ear...
by marcopolo
Sat May 30, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19347

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

I agree, TimeLord. I have sort of the opposite view of a LMP from that of being a "skin of the teeth" scenario. To me a LMP can (should?) be used if one has oversaved, or had success at investing, during the accumulation years and has far more than they might reasonably need for their chosen liabil...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19347

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

My only point is that people sometimes seem to present LMP as some magical thing that somehow makes your retirment "safer". But, it is really just mentally shifting the same dollars around, and is not functionally any different. It’s a way of deductively building an asset allocation. Agreed.
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19347

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

I agree, TimeLord. I have sort of the opposite view of a LMP from that of being a "skin of the teeth" scenario. To me a LMP can (should?) be used if one has oversaved, or had success at investing, during the accumulation years and has far more than they might reasonably need for their chosen liabil...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 17375

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

My business in rural midwest has recovered quite well. Pre Covid I was seeing 100 patients per week. At the nadir it was 10 patients /week. Now it is 90/week. My area has been only mildly affected and the best guess is that we will never get hit like the major cities. My employer has cut physician ...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19347

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

Who is recommending you completely quit playing the game? And why do some BH seem to paint a picture of people with LMP as skin of the teeth no buffer retirees? Sure you can come up with scenarios that make different types of plans fail but the way I hear LMP and "Won the game" strategies described...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19347

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

Who is recommending you completely quit playing the game? And why do some BH seem to paint a picture of people with LMP as skin of the teeth no buffer retirees? Sure you can come up with scenarios that make different types of plans fail but the way I hear LMP and "Won the game" strategies described...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 17375

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

My business in rural midwest has recovered quite well. Pre Covid I was seeing 100 patients per week. At the nadir it was 10 patients /week. Now it is 90/week. My area has been only mildly affected and the best guess is that we will never get hit like the major cities. My employer has cut physician ...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1407

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

Yes, obviously dividend reinvestment occurs at market cap weight. That's not really the question as I see it. Rather, the question is whether dividend reinvestment in TSM is effectively making companies that retain their earnings more expensive while making those that distribute their earnings less...
by marcopolo
Fri May 29, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1407

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

I've asked this same question, and received the same answer you did. Anyway, you have a nice example to counter that answer. Can I nitpick your values though? I don't think you can allocate 50% of dividend reinvestment to value. You can only allocate 49.25%. So: 3) After reinvesting dividends |————...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1407

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

You end with market cap, same as you started before the dividend was paid, no? 1) Before dividend payment: |—————Value $100—————|—————Growth $100—————| |—————Value 50% —————|—————Growth 50% —————| 2) After dividend payment, before reinvesting dividends: |———Value $97 ———|———Growth $100———|—Cash $3 ...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1407

Re: Does reinvesting TSM dividends artificially inflate one’s position in growth stocks?

You end with market cap, same as you started before the dividend was paid, no? 1) Before dividend payment: |—————Value $100—————|—————Growth $100—————| |—————Value 50% —————|—————Growth 50% —————| 2) After dividend payment, before reinvesting dividends: |———Value $97 ———|———Growth $100———|—Cash $3 ...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 10355

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Me and SO should be on track to FATFire around 45-50. However, I don't want to just sit at home at this time. In our 40s and 50s I would have worked 20+ years in software engineering and would have developed significant skills there to perhaps do something in that space. We are currently in our ear...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple jobs during FATFire?
Replies: 152
Views: 10355

Re: Simple jobs during FATFire?

Me and SO should be on track to FATFire around 45-50. However, I don't want to just sit at home at this time. In our 40s and 50s I would have worked 20+ years in software engineering and would have developed significant skills there to perhaps do something in that space. We are currently in our ear...
by marcopolo
Thu May 28, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21585

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

It'll be interesting to see who is correct. I notice that there are reports of China preparing for a second wave. That's simply prudent but it does mean fewer PPE exports for the rest of the world. It also implies that if a second wave happens China may respond aggressively leading to a 2nd wave of...