Search found 704 matches

by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 6572

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

FWIW SS is expected to pay out 75% of current promised benefits worst case :annoyed . I am almost 50, you and I are very near the 'worst case' profile, retiring when SS Program Income/Outgo gap is at it's largest. I assume 70% of SS benefits (from SSA.Gov) in my outlooks for a small built-in margin...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 4005

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

It seems to me that diversification can be a great thing, but also that diversification doesn't always appear to provide a 'free lunch' My portfolio is a slice and dice that has worked well in the past. I've de-optimized it from a 'historical diversification' standpoint, to attempt to bullet proof t...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 6572

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

FWIW SS is expected to pay out 75% of current promised benefits worst case :annoyed . I am almost 50, you and I are very near the 'worst case' profile, retiring when SS Program Income/Outgo gap is at it's largest. I assume 70% of SS benefits (from SSA.Gov) in my outlooks for a small built-in margin...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 111062

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Such an interesting post. I grew up in what was and still largely is a "blue collar" neighborhood. We had single moms on a tight budget living next to stealthy retired millionaires, most families of 4++ had one car. If you had two cars, you were either rich, or the other car was a beater, or both. ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise
Replies: 52
Views: 9620

Re: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise

I'm genuinely sorry for the situation you are in; like many of us, you've learned the hard way. Ameriprise has a special place on the ninth circle of hell, as far as I'm concerned.... because I did pretty much what you did, except 1) Ameriprise was recomended by my employer and 2) I turned down the ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 6572

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

FWIW SS is expected to pay out 75% of current promised benefits worst case :annoyed . I am almost 50, you and I are very near the 'worst case' profile, retiring when SS Program Income/Outgo gap is at it's largest. I assume 70% of SS benefits (from SSA.Gov) in my outlooks for a small built-in margin ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 8402

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

@pascalwager That' a very large slug of cash. Why so much? galeno, Yes, I'm about 80/5/15, stocks/bonds/cash. I'm not much of a bonds guy and naturally gravitate towards a portfolio that's comprised of equity risk and ultra short-term risk (T-Bills, savings, I-Bonds). Because T-Bill rates are low, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator"
Replies: 25
Views: 9535

Re: "Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator"

If you assume a 4% withdrawl rate on 25x expenses, you seem to top out in the high 80's success rate using 40 years as your goal. Go 50 years and it's low 80's. This suggests that the 9-12 times income benchmarks are highly questionable, which I think most people on this forum already believe. Fidel...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I leave Ameriprise?
Replies: 58
Views: 7819

Re: Should I leave Ameriprise?

As soon as I saw this thread I knew I had to respond. I would strongly suggest that you should. We made the mistake of investing with Ameriprise 18 years ago or so (after tax). They are smooth... we didn't realize it, but we were put in a wrap account. The funds we were in were terrible funds from a...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting
Replies: 27
Views: 3299

Re: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting

My response may be a bit non Boglehead-ish, but I think there is a "yes, but no" kind of answer about predicting the markets. I think most people on this forum would agree with me that in general, market predictions are bunk. Yet even Bogle himself will reset expectations at least, on the basis of 1...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 4374

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

When boomers with memories of the 1980s were worried about inflation during upcoming retirements, Wall Street offered Collateralized Commodities Futures (CCF) funds based on a historical period, that has not repeated. When the student is ready, the teacher will appear, but the student may not like ...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 5747

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

There isn't a "401(k) problem." It's just a savings problem. The 401(k) might help a little, but come on. Even the match for most people doesn't amount to all that much. Most of us would have been just fine if 401(k)s had never been invented. It's not like you can't save for retirement in a taxable...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 8131

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

No offense intended, but the methodology you describe seems to be more like guessing the markets than timing them; P/E has been shown to be a poor timing basis for market timing. This kind of thing is a common experience many of us have engaged in as well, so it's no shame to have tried. I've worked...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 5747

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

I've had my (future) pension slashed by 90%+. There is talk of increasing the retirement age for SS, and/or changing the benefit level. Without our 401(k)s we'd be in serious retirement trouble. My dad talked to me about his 401K when I was a teen; & it made a big impression on me. As soon as I was ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8413

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Be careful with backtesting. The data for some asset classes has been extended further back in the backtesting spreadsheet, but if you use only data since 1972, whatever you see for bonds cannot be representative of the future starting from current low yields. You have to go back to the 1940s-1950s...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 10625

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

There are two times in my life I wanted to sell all my equities. The first was in March of 2000. The second was in October of 2007. This feels nothing like either of those times. In 1999, the market had improbably soared again. Everyone knew the market was over-valued, to the extent that they were m...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 45921

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

2017 S&P500 ending balance 2,595.00

I normally would say about 5% YTY, but I think the strength of the recovery thus far has been downplayed, and that will reverse such that luck and animal spirits will carry us north of 15%, so I went high end.
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492954

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Age 49, two kids about to start college, retirement fund on track, college fund lagging big time. Not a Boglehead quite, but I love this site. Below are actual returns, no contributions included. Cash Flow: Positive this year for the first time in over a decade. We had saved for her to stay home wit...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8413

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Kevin, thank you, nicely summarized. In the past day or so I've been heading in the direction that your reply would suggest, but hoping I wasn't overlooking significant risks. Your summary really fills in the gaps for me, everything is starting to click into place. I'm not experienced at analyzing b...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help finding the best bond strategy?
Replies: 7
Views: 1605

Re: Help finding the best bond strategy?

If you only have 8% bonds, I'd focus less on returns (which will be dominated by your 92% stocks) and more on diversifying behavior. Compare the performance of BND, LQD, and HYG in 2008. LQD lost 25%, HYG lost 35%... whats the point? You might as well be 100% stocks. When you have <= 10% stocks, I ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Page: major revision to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet
Replies: 8
Views: 1349

Re: Financial Page: major revision to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet

Thank you for this worksheet! I have used Portfolio Visualizer in the past (though they recently backed out some data it seems) and Portfoliocharts.com, and now this wonderful tool, the 'Simba' spreadsheet is part of my toolset. I have not had time to compare all three tools for similar asset alloca...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8413

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

I think many people fail to recognize just how good a deal this is because they're comparing to medium or long-term bond rates, and misinterpreting those as the returns that will be obtained in the short term . In reality, the short-term expected return on a 10-year Treasury is closer to the yield ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 2795

Re: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation

Since you mentioned it, one word of caution about the 'Golden Butterfly', the Permanent Portfolio, or any portfolio with a significant (>5%) allocation to Gold. I personally Ignore the first half of the 1970's for any backtest. Gold was legalized for general purchase. It did not behave normally, and...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8413

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

I have no idea what risk applies to this in reality, but the highlight above and the description of the fund might be worth some second thoughts. I agree with you from a general viewpoint. In my case, there are 6 major insurers. They each cover roughly 16% of the portfolio... so that seems reasonab...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing: When being 'average' is a lot better than average
Replies: 19
Views: 2273

Re: Indexing: When being 'average' is a lot better than average

I really like the golf analogy, because I think most investors fail to make market average returns, just as most golfers fail to make Par. Not only are there advisors and funds fleecing people along the way, the stock market itself is imbalanced, to the disadvantage of investors in individual stocks...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Twenty Ways To Tell If You're A Lousy Investor"
Replies: 57
Views: 7622

Re: "Twenty Ways To Tell If You're A Lousy Investor"

[quote="Dulocracy"] You look at your portfolio more often than you wash your car. Guilty. I do this, however, to learn. Oddly, it helps me to stay the course to look. It confirms that my portfolio is doing what it is supposed to do. I like downturns, as I am buying cheap. Looking helps me, as I am ...
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 18, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8413

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Thanks everyone for the comments! Had a family commitment last night and this morning. re: Stable Value fund. Returns YTD (Daily)* +2.94% 1 Yr +3.07% 3 Yrs +2.93% 5 Yrs +3.02% 10 Yrs +3.63% There are 10 managers of the fund, ranging from Pimco with the biggest slice, to Blackrock to Dodge and Cox. T...
by Portfolio7
Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8413

Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

I'm sorry to revisit this topic, but I'm more conflicted than ever on the proper use of Stable Value funds within a portfolio, that last bit being the key. I think I just have to put my thoughts down, and I appreciate any comments. My Asset Allocation is 72/28. 48% US Eq, 24% Int'l, 28% Bonds/Cash 1...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 7459

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

I only like LT bonds in conjunction with very high equity portfolios. We've had a 30 year bull in bonds, which makes LT bonds look really good in even 40 year backtests. There are no guarantees going forward, but in a 60/40 portfolio Intermediate Treasuries have historically given a lot of bang for ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to fund retirement in late 20s.
Replies: 23
Views: 3560

Re: Trying to fund retirement in late 20s.

We started saving when I was 28 and dw was 26. In 5 years of saving (and returns) we accumulated $115K. At 2.0% inflation over the 16 intervening years, that is not too different from your $150K, +/- depending on whether you are including returns in your $150K. We continued saving 15% in 401ks for a...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 17
Views: 2257

Re: Commodities for the Long Run

I don't invest in commodities except indirectly, my thoughts on that are: The long term return/risk characteristics appear unexciting based upon the data I've seen, in particular the last 40 years or so. Going back to 1877 or whatever seems like data mining of a sort. The Asset Allocation reading an...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: which factors matter to investors?
Replies: 10
Views: 1647

Re: which factors matter to investors?

The results of the study really aren't that surprising to me. Not only do many people not accept the evidence for factors, many people work off of instinct as much or more than statistics and theory; and many high income people are not mathematically nor statistically inclined (nor exceptional saver...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 157
Views: 18884

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

I think it's a judgement call. History is not evidence, but it's indicative. That's why we invest in stocks in the first place (that's a little simplistic. There is also established theory to support the higher returns of stocks) . Tilts make a lot of sense to me, so I use them. I don't argue with t...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Stock Market Performance
Replies: 14
Views: 4518

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

When I start worrying about the market, I know I'm losing faith in my portfolio. If you have faith that your portfolio will handle all situations with reasonable dexterity, then the worrying goes away (at least, it does for me.) So, when the worry hits, that's when I revisit my portfolio to understa...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3894

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

Thanks Taylor, I love to read about portfolio construction. I think EMH and the CAPM framework are incredibly valuable tools, yet I've not come to quite the same conclusions presented in that article (yet?), though I have at least a passing familiarity with most of the topics broached by JN. While I...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3894

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

Thanks Kevin! Swedroe seems to suggest that liquidity issues may be responsible for TIPS 2008 performance (issues that won't repeat).. regardless, I appreciate your data on periods of poor bond returns. I have a lot of thinking to do about how much to modify my portfolio, especially since I find you...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3894

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

So, the SV fund is returning about 2.9%. I had some of my portfolio allocated to this fund in 2007/8/9 and it held up just fine. Description is: The fund may invest in wrapped bonds, a limited amount of unwrapped bonds, cash, and U.S. government Series I savings bonds. For the wrapped bonds, the fun...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3894

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

Thanks all for great food for thought. MHC, that's what I would have said a few months ago, but I keep wandering back to challenge that assumption. Fclevz and Dabbling Economist, I'm used to thinking of bonds as something that tend to have big gains during a market drop and so are very helpful for a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3894

When should Cash supersede Bonds?

DW and I are late 40's, we carry a 72% Equity / 28% Bond portfolio in our 401Ks. I'm happy with our portfolio, and will slowly be shifting more to bonds when I hit 50. The question I have, is when should cash supersede bonds, and to what extent? Certainly in retirement, I am likely to want 3-5 years...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Realistic to get annual 10%?
Replies: 38
Views: 6396

Re: Realistic to get annual 10%?

POAGX lost almost 50% in 2008, you may be remembering this wrong? It looks like a good fund, but not a core holding, as they say (10% maybe?). 0.6% isn't super high, but it's not low. A good three fund portfolio (see boglehead guidance) should run you less than 0.1% if I remember right. I fret over ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 17, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So LT bonds haven't been so bad after all
Replies: 26
Views: 3529

Re: So LT bonds haven't been so bad after all

LT bonds were up over 15% YTD at one point this year, if I remember right... I think that's down a bit now. In any case, with high equity component (80-90%) to your portfolio, LT Treasuries are pretty effective, but in a mature portfolio that's 75% or less equities, I like Int Trsy - return is almos...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 353
Views: 356530

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

I'm learning to stay the course and don't listen to the noise as I approach my retirement next month. Thank you for the time to explain your charts for all of us to understand. I've never been sure how one distinguishes "noise" from "signal" in the case of markets. Me either. And when you are retir...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492954

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I've tinkered slightly this year with overall risk characteristics, so I'm not being obtuse when I say I was roughly 68% stocks and 32% bonds. Am up 9.4% for the year. REITs, EM, Long Treasuries all seem to be making a big contribution this year. Any one year or YTD isn't a big deal for me, but I do...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2691
Views: 1780069

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I think the three fund portfolio is an excellent and very efficient portfolio. It's the perfect 'set it and forget it' portfolio, that's revisited once per year or so. I personally use something closer to Bernstein's 'Madonna' portfolio, though it also shares some characteristics of Swenson's portfo...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Do you own corporate bonds?
Replies: 36
Views: 3848

Re: POLL: Do you own corporate bonds?

I use a percentage of junk bonds in place of equities. I like the dividends they pay and lower relative volatility. I think this is a conservative approach, as long as you consider high-yield equal to equities, and not equal to treasuries. This is the best justification I've read recently. I've had...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much you need to save as multiple of salary
Replies: 56
Views: 12248

Re: How much you need to save as multiple of salary

I like this thread. I think most of the value from these exercises lies in running through the data and understanding implications, vs even assessing if you are on-track or not. Following are 5 ways to look at how appropriate your savings are for your age, and I think all result in useful insights. ...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 476
Views: 91747

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Sorry, was out of town for a bit, thanks everyone for the great responses. Slutz, appreciate the confirmation of Std Dev history. rrppve, I agree on the duration comments. Short term TIPS seem to me to provide very diluted inflation protection; I wouldn't think that useful in most portfolios. Doc, v...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 476
Views: 91747

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

One aspect of this conversation confuses me altogether.... there have been several comments that TIPS help reduce risk/volatility/standard deviation. I'm sure this varies a little based on your specific portfolio, but.... I see the opposite. I use Portfolio Visualizer to build my portfolio. I then c...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Cash
Replies: 17
Views: 6264

Re: Bonds vs. Cash

I think it might be valuable to think of this from the standpoint of a rebalanced portfolio. Using Portfolio Visualizer, a roughly 50/50 portfolio (equities + Int Treas - or Eq + Cash, rebalanced annually in both cases) over the past 43 years, Portfolio visualizer suggests bonds have provided 1.3% m...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Review
Replies: 18
Views: 1832

Re: Asset Allocation Review

Overall plan looks very good to me. I won't claim any great expertise, but I get a kick out of portfolio construction. I agree with other commenters that the small cap allocation is a bit redundant/overkill. You could consider midcap instead (often overlooked, very good long term returns, higher vol...