Search found 665 matches

by Portfolio7
Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiree Accumulation/Withdrawal Phase -- How many funds do you have? Allocation? Withdrawal strategy?
Replies: 90
Views: 10714

Re: Retiree Accumulation/Withdrawal Phase -- How many funds do you have? Allocation? Withdrawal strategy?

Accumulation, 10 years from Retirement, +/- 5 years. I modeled my retirement cash flows so that withdrawls yield desired total income after consideration of other variable cash flows. Avg maybe 3.5% in early years. I'm sure it will change a lot over time, but I'll update the model as needed. Some fu...
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory on whether to go Roth 401k
Replies: 89
Views: 9451

Re: Theory on whether to go Roth 401k

What about for use as a future emergency fund? Virtually all of our savings are in T401Ks, with a tiny bit in TIRAs and RIRAs. I put $10K into an R401K at work, let it sit 5 years, and now between that and the RIRAs we have about $20 grand we can access if needed (much of it in Stable Value Funds)....
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1147
Views: 323053

Re: Share your net worth progression

We haven't always made the right moves, but we've kept saving. We started married life with about $100K cash around age 27. At age 30 we had about $230K NW, part of it was the house appreciation. By age 40 we were around $600K. Cash flow problems from continuing education, business investment, but p...
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 5078

Re: Stock market optimism

The past few years the market has felt to me like it wants to spring forward, but is still wary (the ghost of 2008 lingers on.) Either way my portfolio will endure.

I think it all depends on earnings. If 1Q is strong, I might win the S&P 500 forecast for the year, but I hope I under-guessed!
by Portfolio7
Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory on whether to go Roth 401k
Replies: 89
Views: 9451

Re: Theory on whether to go Roth 401k

What about for use as a future emergency fund? Virtually all of our savings are in T401Ks, with a tiny bit in TIRAs and RIRAs. I put $10K into an R401K at work, let it sit 5 years, and now between that and the RIRAs we have about $20 grand we can access if needed (much of it in Stable Value Funds). ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: final review of 2016 sure things
Replies: 9
Views: 1976

Re: final review of 2016 sure things

The 'sure things' are so often wrong you could almost use them as a contrarian indicator.
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is rebalancing bunk?
Replies: 51
Views: 4858

Re: Is rebalancing bunk?

Because I tweak my portfolio for attempted risk/reward optimization at least one per year, rebalancing is a moot point for me. I'm always near my risk target. A three fund portfolio would solve that problem, but create regret issues for me. Maybe I'm finally at the point of good enough. However, 'kn...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth, Retirement and FI Metrics
Replies: 0
Views: 758

Net Worth, Retirement and FI Metrics

I had a nice long post written when the internet burped :confused . Let me see if I can rehash and condense: Building wealth is a difficult process - moving in the right direction is the most important step. For this reason, most discussion on this site is properly about the investment process and h...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [favorite] Boglehead quotes
Replies: 104
Views: 17058

Re: [favorite] Boglehead quotes

In all the reading I have done over the past few years to educate myself in my ongoing efforts to simplify my portfolio after firing my adviser, the following is hands down the most helpful thing I've read. nisiprius wrote: My answer to all such questions is: do it slowly and gradually. If you neve...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General, rock solid investment books
Replies: 7
Views: 1000

Re: General, rock solid investment books

"The Intelligent Investor" is often recommended as well. It is pre-Index fund investing, but the lessons are timeless. I am a big fan of Bernstein's "The Intelligent Asset Allocator". It's a bit more math oriented than some books, but I thought it was great. You might want to add those to the list y...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 333
Views: 82384

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Investing isn't about becoming rich for most people. As W. Bernstein states, it's about avoiding poverty in retirement and covering basic living expenses. A $2 million portfolio doesn't make you remotely rich unless you also have a public employee type pension, or you know you're going to die soon....
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 6318

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

FWIW SS is expected to pay out 75% of current promised benefits worst case :annoyed . I am almost 50, you and I are very near the 'worst case' profile, retiring when SS Program Income/Outgo gap is at it's largest. I assume 70% of SS benefits (from SSA.Gov) in my outlooks for a small built-in margin...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3988

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

It seems to me that diversification can be a great thing, but also that diversification doesn't always appear to provide a 'free lunch' My portfolio is a slice and dice that has worked well in the past. I've de-optimized it from a 'historical diversification' standpoint, to attempt to bullet proof t...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 6318

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

FWIW SS is expected to pay out 75% of current promised benefits worst case :annoyed . I am almost 50, you and I are very near the 'worst case' profile, retiring when SS Program Income/Outgo gap is at it's largest. I assume 70% of SS benefits (from SSA.Gov) in my outlooks for a small built-in margin...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 333
Views: 82384

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

Such an interesting post. I grew up in what was and still largely is a "blue collar" neighborhood. We had single moms on a tight budget living next to stealthy retired millionaires, most families of 4++ had one car. If you had two cars, you were either rich, or the other car was a beater, or both. ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise
Replies: 52
Views: 8938

Re: Thinking about leaving Ameriprise

I'm genuinely sorry for the situation you are in; like many of us, you've learned the hard way. Ameriprise has a special place on the ninth circle of hell, as far as I'm concerned.... because I did pretty much what you did, except 1) Ameriprise was recomended by my employer and 2) I turned down the ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions
Replies: 35
Views: 6318

Re: Help with Retirement Projection Assumptions

FWIW SS is expected to pay out 75% of current promised benefits worst case :annoyed . I am almost 50, you and I are very near the 'worst case' profile, retiring when SS Program Income/Outgo gap is at it's largest. I assume 70% of SS benefits (from SSA.Gov) in my outlooks for a small built-in margin ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 8375

Re: Bogle says 50-50 short/intermediate bonds

@pascalwager That' a very large slug of cash. Why so much? galeno, Yes, I'm about 80/5/15, stocks/bonds/cash. I'm not much of a bonds guy and naturally gravitate towards a portfolio that's comprised of equity risk and ultra short-term risk (T-Bills, savings, I-Bonds). Because T-Bill rates are low, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator"
Replies: 25
Views: 9503

Re: "Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator"

If you assume a 4% withdrawl rate on 25x expenses, you seem to top out in the high 80's success rate using 40 years as your goal. Go 50 years and it's low 80's. This suggests that the 9-12 times income benchmarks are highly questionable, which I think most people on this forum already believe. Fidel...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I leave Ameriprise?
Replies: 58
Views: 7784

Re: Should I leave Ameriprise?

As soon as I saw this thread I knew I had to respond. I would strongly suggest that you should. We made the mistake of investing with Ameriprise 18 years ago or so (after tax). They are smooth... we didn't realize it, but we were put in a wrap account. The funds we were in were terrible funds from a...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting
Replies: 27
Views: 3294

Re: all the debate over tilting away from market-cap weighting

My response may be a bit non Boglehead-ish, but I think there is a "yes, but no" kind of answer about predicting the markets. I think most people on this forum would agree with me that in general, market predictions are bunk. Yet even Bogle himself will reset expectations at least, on the basis of 1...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 4352

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

When boomers with memories of the 1980s were worried about inflation during upcoming retirements, Wall Street offered Collateralized Commodities Futures (CCF) funds based on a historical period, that has not repeated. When the student is ready, the teacher will appear, but the student may not like ...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 5727

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

There isn't a "401(k) problem." It's just a savings problem. The 401(k) might help a little, but come on. Even the match for most people doesn't amount to all that much. Most of us would have been just fine if 401(k)s had never been invented. It's not like you can't save for retirement in a taxable...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 8101

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

No offense intended, but the methodology you describe seems to be more like guessing the markets than timing them; P/E has been shown to be a poor timing basis for market timing. This kind of thing is a common experience many of us have engaged in as well, so it's no shame to have tried. I've worked...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 5727

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

I've had my (future) pension slashed by 90%+. There is talk of increasing the retirement age for SS, and/or changing the benefit level. Without our 401(k)s we'd be in serious retirement trouble. My dad talked to me about his 401K when I was a teen; & it made a big impression on me. As soon as I was ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8353

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Be careful with backtesting. The data for some asset classes has been extended further back in the backtesting spreadsheet, but if you use only data since 1972, whatever you see for bonds cannot be representative of the future starting from current low yields. You have to go back to the 1940s-1950s...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remember what it was like before the recession?
Replies: 81
Views: 10511

Re: Remember what it was like before the recession?

There are two times in my life I wanted to sell all my equities. The first was in March of 2000. The second was in October of 2007. This feels nothing like either of those times. In 1999, the market had improbably soared again. Everyone knew the market was over-valued, to the extent that they were m...
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 711
Views: 45523

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

2017 S&P500 ending balance 2,595.00

I normally would say about 5% YTY, but I think the strength of the recovery thus far has been downplayed, and that will reverse such that luck and animal spirits will carry us north of 15%, so I went high end.
by Portfolio7
Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2548
Views: 473643

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Age 49, two kids about to start college, retirement fund on track, college fund lagging big time. Not a Boglehead quite, but I love this site. Below are actual returns, no contributions included. Cash Flow: Positive this year for the first time in over a decade. We had saved for her to stay home wit...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8353

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Kevin, thank you, nicely summarized. In the past day or so I've been heading in the direction that your reply would suggest, but hoping I wasn't overlooking significant risks. Your summary really fills in the gaps for me, everything is starting to click into place. I'm not experienced at analyzing b...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help finding the best bond strategy?
Replies: 7
Views: 1598

Re: Help finding the best bond strategy?

If you only have 8% bonds, I'd focus less on returns (which will be dominated by your 92% stocks) and more on diversifying behavior. Compare the performance of BND, LQD, and HYG in 2008. LQD lost 25%, HYG lost 35%... whats the point? You might as well be 100% stocks. When you have <= 10% stocks, I ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Page: major revision to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet
Replies: 8
Views: 1335

Re: Financial Page: major revision to the Simba backtesting spreadsheet

Thank you for this worksheet! I have used Portfolio Visualizer in the past (though they recently backed out some data it seems) and Portfoliocharts.com, and now this wonderful tool, the 'Simba' spreadsheet is part of my toolset. I have not had time to compare all three tools for similar asset alloca...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8353

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

I think many people fail to recognize just how good a deal this is because they're comparing to medium or long-term bond rates, and misinterpreting those as the returns that will be obtained in the short term . In reality, the short-term expected return on a 10-year Treasury is closer to the yield ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 2789

Re: Static vs Changing Asset Allocation

Since you mentioned it, one word of caution about the 'Golden Butterfly', the Permanent Portfolio, or any portfolio with a significant (>5%) allocation to Gold. I personally Ignore the first half of the 1970's for any backtest. Gold was legalized for general purchase. It did not behave normally, and...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8353

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

I have no idea what risk applies to this in reality, but the highlight above and the description of the fund might be worth some second thoughts. I agree with you from a general viewpoint. In my case, there are 6 major insurers. They each cover roughly 16% of the portfolio... so that seems reasonab...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing: When being 'average' is a lot better than average
Replies: 19
Views: 2266

Re: Indexing: When being 'average' is a lot better than average

I really like the golf analogy, because I think most investors fail to make market average returns, just as most golfers fail to make Par. Not only are there advisors and funds fleecing people along the way, the stock market itself is imbalanced, to the disadvantage of investors in individual stocks...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Twenty Ways To Tell If You're A Lousy Investor"
Replies: 57
Views: 7607

Re: "Twenty Ways To Tell If You're A Lousy Investor"

[quote="Dulocracy"] You look at your portfolio more often than you wash your car. Guilty. I do this, however, to learn. Oddly, it helps me to stay the course to look. It confirms that my portfolio is doing what it is supposed to do. I like downturns, as I am buying cheap. Looking helps me, as I am ...
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 18, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8353

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Thanks everyone for the comments! Had a family commitment last night and this morning. re: Stable Value fund. Returns YTD (Daily)* +2.94% 1 Yr +3.07% 3 Yrs +2.93% 5 Yrs +3.02% 10 Yrs +3.63% There are 10 managers of the fund, ranging from Pimco with the biggest slice, to Blackrock to Dodge and Cox. T...
by Portfolio7
Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8353

Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

I'm sorry to revisit this topic, but I'm more conflicted than ever on the proper use of Stable Value funds within a portfolio, that last bit being the key. I think I just have to put my thoughts down, and I appreciate any comments. My Asset Allocation is 72/28. 48% US Eq, 24% Int'l, 28% Bonds/Cash 1...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 7444

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

I only like LT bonds in conjunction with very high equity portfolios. We've had a 30 year bull in bonds, which makes LT bonds look really good in even 40 year backtests. There are no guarantees going forward, but in a 60/40 portfolio Intermediate Treasuries have historically given a lot of bang for ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to fund retirement in late 20s.
Replies: 23
Views: 3543

Re: Trying to fund retirement in late 20s.

We started saving when I was 28 and dw was 26. In 5 years of saving (and returns) we accumulated $115K. At 2.0% inflation over the 16 intervening years, that is not too different from your $150K, +/- depending on whether you are including returns in your $150K. We continued saving 15% in 401ks for a...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 17
Views: 2238

Re: Commodities for the Long Run

I don't invest in commodities except indirectly, my thoughts on that are: The long term return/risk characteristics appear unexciting based upon the data I've seen, in particular the last 40 years or so. Going back to 1877 or whatever seems like data mining of a sort. The Asset Allocation reading an...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: which factors matter to investors?
Replies: 10
Views: 1638

Re: which factors matter to investors?

The results of the study really aren't that surprising to me. Not only do many people not accept the evidence for factors, many people work off of instinct as much or more than statistics and theory; and many high income people are not mathematically nor statistically inclined (nor exceptional saver...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 157
Views: 18741

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

I think it's a judgement call. History is not evidence, but it's indicative. That's why we invest in stocks in the first place (that's a little simplistic. There is also established theory to support the higher returns of stocks) . Tilts make a lot of sense to me, so I use them. I don't argue with t...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Current Stock Market Performance
Replies: 14
Views: 4343

Re: Current Stock Market Performance

When I start worrying about the market, I know I'm losing faith in my portfolio. If you have faith that your portfolio will handle all situations with reasonable dexterity, then the worrying goes away (at least, it does for me.) So, when the worry hits, that's when I revisit my portfolio to understa...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3817

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

Thanks Taylor, I love to read about portfolio construction. I think EMH and the CAPM framework are incredibly valuable tools, yet I've not come to quite the same conclusions presented in that article (yet?), though I have at least a passing familiarity with most of the topics broached by JN. While I...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3817

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

Thanks Kevin! Swedroe seems to suggest that liquidity issues may be responsible for TIPS 2008 performance (issues that won't repeat).. regardless, I appreciate your data on periods of poor bond returns. I have a lot of thinking to do about how much to modify my portfolio, especially since I find you...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3817

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

So, the SV fund is returning about 2.9%. I had some of my portfolio allocated to this fund in 2007/8/9 and it held up just fine. Description is: The fund may invest in wrapped bonds, a limited amount of unwrapped bonds, cash, and U.S. government Series I savings bonds. For the wrapped bonds, the fun...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3817

Re: When should Cash supersede Bonds?

Thanks all for great food for thought. MHC, that's what I would have said a few months ago, but I keep wandering back to challenge that assumption. Fclevz and Dabbling Economist, I'm used to thinking of bonds as something that tend to have big gains during a market drop and so are very helpful for a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should Cash supersede Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 3817

When should Cash supersede Bonds?

DW and I are late 40's, we carry a 72% Equity / 28% Bond portfolio in our 401Ks. I'm happy with our portfolio, and will slowly be shifting more to bonds when I hit 50. The question I have, is when should cash supersede bonds, and to what extent? Certainly in retirement, I am likely to want 3-5 years...