Search found 699 matches

by Portfolio7
Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 14087

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

Is everyone registered on this site considered a boglehead? I've done some unbogle-ish things in the past, and probably will in the future.... :twisted: I'm at least traveling the same direction, if maybe on a mostly parrallel road. DW and I have many multiples of that average retirement savings amo...
by Portfolio7
Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492618

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

8.21% 70/30 [34% US Equities / 36% Int'l Equities / 30% FI (Stable Value)]
by Portfolio7
Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?
Replies: 47
Views: 5008

Re: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?

At Age 29 I'd paid off my student loans, bought a cheap used car, and built a small emergency fund, and was finally making decent bank. Have been investing since then. My sons will both have Roth IRAs before they go to college. One at age 14, the other age 17, the difference due to... circumstances.
by Portfolio7
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 3628

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

One question that arose in researching this topic: Why don’t central banks publish and update their estimates of natural real interest rates on a regular basis? As much as I'd love to see that, I'm not sure how anything good comes of publicizing an indeterminate number. You can't forecast it, you c...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund
Replies: 56
Views: 10072

Re: Your Favorite Vanguard Fund

I try hard to take a cold-hearted approach, but I do admit an emotional attachment to a few funds. That's why I still own some FOCKX, Fidelity's OTC fund. I think it's a solid long term investment despite fees that are higher than I prefer. It's done very well for me, but valuations do give me pause...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 27
Views: 4862

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

Personally, I expect to retire before my wife, who's happy with her business and will likely want to keep a hand in. Therefore in the early years we may withdraw 5-7% depending on various transitions, but then scale that back to about 3% once she hits full retirement age. Wouldn't you be pulling le...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?
Replies: 27
Views: 4862

Re: 5% of portfolio balance a better SWR than 3-4% inflation-adjusted?

So, this thread has me curious. I don't know how to do on-line polls, but I'm wondering how many people actually utilize withdrawl rates in the sense that they start at 3 or 4% and adjust each year based on some algorithm. Personally, I expect to retire before my wife, who's happy with her business ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 15432

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I have been changing my AA every couple of years (or more frequently) for 22 years of investing. Mostly it was trying to incorporate new knowledge, but the point is that it doesn't appear to have hurt my performance any. I think what's most important is to have a reasonable AA at all times (and not ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?
Replies: 80
Views: 13951

Re: Costco vs. Amazon - Thoughts of Prime Members?

I prefer Target for groceries overall, it's the sweet spot for price and quality, excluding veggies. I do shop at both Costco, for certain specific items, and at Whole Foods, for other specific items. I don't see them as direct competition for most of what I buy - Target is cheapest, the other two c...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)
Replies: 78
Views: 9856

Re: Best Financial Advice from Dad (in honor of father's day)

Really mostly frugality, and building assets. He is a terrible investor. Now has all his money in bonds and cds, which I think is best for him. But he was always thinking about building assets, and I got that much from him.
by Portfolio7
Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 12621

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

Tilting is something I've always done in one respect or another. Currently: 10% of total portfolio in REITs 20% in Vanguard minimum volatility global fund. over-weighted Emerging Markets, with a value component over-weighted international small and mid-cap, with a value component over-weighted US sm...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: 401K Match
Replies: 99
Views: 21155

Re: Poll: 401K Match

2% automatic Contribution plus 100% match on the first 6% of contributions. Net, If I contribute a base 6% I mazimize employer contributions which nets to a 14% total (employers 2% base contribution plus my 6% plus employers 6% matching.)
by Portfolio7
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation With Highest Historical Safe Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 6
Views: 1858

Re: Asset Allocation With Highest Historical Safe Withdrawal Rate

The portfoliocharts.com site has some good stuff. This topic intrigues me too - maybe I can give some observations then ask a question. During the accumulation phase I think you want higher returns if you can handle the volatility that comes with that. I tend to think a slice and dice like the 7/12 ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills (paper)
Replies: 2
Views: 1037

Re: Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills (paper)

From Professor Hendrik Bessembinder - Ariz. State - Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? In the language of statistics, the stock market generally has a positive skew — meaning, a relatively small number of outliers like Exxon or Apple have such great returns that they pull up the average stock, wh...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making an app for Bogleheads, need advice
Replies: 46
Views: 8351

Re: Making an app for Bogleheads, need advice

Ok, I downloaded it. I can't really do anything. The opening screen references twitter, google, and facebook. I don't Facebook or Twitter, and I don't have a gmail account. Not a luddite so much as I just don't have the time nor see the value. Selecting one of those appears to be the only option?
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492618

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

This thread keeps attracting new posts. I would be interested in knowing more about the non-standard returns above. I was thinking it would be helpful to adopt a standardized approach, to help folks identify questionable funds they hold, or explain aspects of performance they hadn't considered befor...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with Impatience reaching financial goals
Replies: 36
Views: 6431

Re: Dealing with Impatience reaching financial goals

I haven't had much of a problem ignoring the balance these many years. We've seen ups and downs, but always been focused on the family or other things. The nature of geometric growth is that it moves slowly. We're now around 45% or so of the way to our 'number', so it's all coming into focus finally...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 22, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 136
Views: 22300

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

Sans gifts/inheritances, this is really a measure of how long a person has been investing, since as the length of time of investment gets large: the numerator is exponential in time, and the denominator is linear in time. Eventually this would surpass any fixed percentage. That makes a lot of sense...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 19, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 66
Views: 10573

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congratulations! I'm 50, and last year was the second year that our returns exceeded my entire salary (the first being 2013). That is a good feeling. I'm looking forward to when our returns exceed our combined salaries, whenever that may happen. Our AA has been all over the place over roughly 22 yea...
by Portfolio7
Fri May 19, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A daily panic on the averages a day or two ago
Replies: 11
Views: 1606

Re: A daily panic on the averages a day or two ago

I have a tiny IRA, (my play money) <1% of my portfolio, that's 100% in ILF ... so when Brazil plunged 10% and they stopped trading, I was moderately bummed. However, it's back up a healthy amount today. It seems that nothing bad can stick in this market. The headlines were interesting though, even f...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 10, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mental accounting: Tool? Crutch? Or no big deal?
Replies: 16
Views: 1527

Re: Mental accounting: Tool? Crutch? Or no big deal?

My personal view is that mental accounting is just fine as a stopgap measure where time is limited and you aren't making any critical decisions. Where I think it causes trouble is when it serves as the basis for ongoing decisions. I think every aspect of your portfolio and retirement plan should be ...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 10, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492618

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I like to compare my portfolio to benchmarks in order to see that I am not hurting myself with behavioral finance errors. I like to read this thread because it shows that people often don't have a legitimate calculation for YTD of their portfolio. Often they report for a single account such as a Ro...
by Portfolio7
Wed May 10, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492618

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I guess this is a test of how Bogle-ish you really are. Or, it could be a reflection of how well you know yourself, and your tendency to jump ship. I am a 'tracker', I know I'm up about 6.7% YTD as of May 10th 2017, with a 70/30 portfolio at age 50. Slice and dice portfolio with value and size tilts...
by Portfolio7
Mon May 08, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 8409

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

Excellent discussion -- thanks to all for very informative and interesting posts! Finding this thread was awesome since I just started rethinking my bond allocation (40% of portfolio) and was struggling with what % should be allocated to stable value. Portfolio7 - any new thoughts? Dionysius, misse...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 265
Views: 30219

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

I'm at about 37 basis points now on a slice and dice portfolio, which is slightly higher than the e/r for my stable value fund (fixed income), and also near the average of my dfa and vanguard mix of equities. Plan fees are a couple basis points, and included in that total. If I went from Stable Valu...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking in real vs. nominal
Replies: 46
Views: 5061

Re: Thinking in real vs. nominal

I think in real terms because that's what's going to matter. What matters is not the number in your account, what matters is your buying power . This is completely true. But what actionable steps does one take to embrace this? As an example, let's say I plan to buy a new Mustang convertible in ten ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer to Fidelity for Sign on Bonus?
Replies: 35
Views: 7626

Re: Transfer to Fidelity for Sign on Bonus?

If it's the same promo I'm familiar with, then, the 'up to $2500' is doled out as a percentage of new contributions. They don't just hand it to you. Unless it's something different than I've seen (I just transferred a few old accounts to Fidelity last year, and this promo has been around for a while...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 3319

Re: value of stock options

I'm no expert, but there are apparently many studies on this thorny question. Articles I've read indicate that they tend to agree you should wait until the last possible moment before expiration. There are a lot of great comments above about taking into account your personal situation. You can also ...
by Portfolio7
Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Portfolio Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 2957

Re: International Portfolio Tilt

As a US resident only, in recent years, I've followed Larry Swedroe's recommendation to start with world market AA (46% int'l at present) and then increase a little to 50% to acknowledge present lower int'l valuations. He doesn't recommend going over 50% int'l unless you live part-time overseas. Bu...
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 136
Views: 22300

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

I ran a very simple analysis with the following assumptions. I was just curious how it mapped: Starting Age 25 Savings/Investment rate = 15% (Can be going into Equities, Bonds, Real Estate, Individual Business, any non-depreciable asset Returns: Market-like with 80/20 Portfolio, 10% and 6% for Equit...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 3834

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

My 2 cents, fwiw: If I had a good idea for a business, that would be my first choice. If not, then I think I'd want to use a deceptively simple and aggressive investment portfolio such as: Small Cap Value 20% REIT 20% Intl Small Cap Stocks 20% Emerging Markets 20% Long Term Treasuries 20% The mix of...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problem with Portfolio Visualizer
Replies: 3
Views: 1125

Re: Problem with Portfolio Visualizer

I'd throw a few bucks to this worthy cause. The tool itself is not only very flexible and useful, it is a great public service that the owner provides it for free.
by Portfolio7
Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Secretly entered two comma club
Replies: 44
Views: 8820

Re: Secretly entered two comma club

Well, you should at least give into your wife on the kindergarten issue. Well, there is a difference between balance sheet and statement of cash flows for a reason. Just because your house has equity and your retirement accounts are funded does not mean you have the cash flow to pay for private. Bu...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 2314

Re: Use Debt Instead Of Cash/Fixed Income In Asset Allocation?

I subscribe to a variation of this idea while in the accumulation phase. All of my investments are in tax advantaged accounts. I have nothing in the way of taxable investments and I don't really have an emergency fund per se. I use all excess funds to pay down debt. I have a HELOC in place and acce...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 8227

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

I remember my dad's advisor had told him to get out about 2 weeks before, and so he didn't lose a whole lot. My dad was pretty happy with his advisor. No moral to the story. I was in my sophomore year of college, and remember wishing I had some money, any money, to put in the market. I was definite...
by Portfolio7
Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remembering the Crash of 1987
Replies: 66
Views: 8227

Re: Remembering the Crash of 1987

I remember my dad's advisor had told him to get out about 2 weeks before, and so he didn't lose a whole lot. My dad was pretty happy with his advisor. No moral to the story. I was in my sophomore year of college, and remember wishing I had some money, any money, to put in the market. I was definitel...
by Portfolio7
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 234
Views: 30465

Re: Social Security for Millennials

I have a question that I hope is demographic and not political: I'm in Generation X, which is a relatively small generation sandwiched between two huge generations (Baby Boomers and Millennials). If Social Security survives the Baby Boomers, won't it be in pretty good shape for Generation X (becaus...
by Portfolio7
Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- First quarter leaders
Replies: 15
Views: 2437

Re: BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- First quarter leaders

Congrats to the top 10! But I'm on your tail - #462 and climbing!
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 25, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 27
Views: 4084

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

Interesting series of articles to read. Newbie question based on the articles: Because the largest CAP "domestic" USA corporations naturally expand globally, IE: Apple, etc. then shouldn't that mean that there is already an increasing "tilt" toward "international" in one's "domestic" portfolio of e...
by Portfolio7
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 136
Views: 22300

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

Whoops, I had an estimate in my data that overstated and skewed the data relative to this calculation, since it was intended for something else originally. Recalc, age 27 to age 50 below, (50 being 2017 partial), puts us at 50% as of March 2017, more in avg Boglehead territory. Geez, the impact of t...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justification for Adding REITs
Replies: 78
Views: 12072

Re: Justification for Adding REITs

Rick Ferri wrote in All About Asset Allocation 2nd edition that most real estate is privately held - not publicly held by corporations. Thus real estate makes up a disproportionate share of the economy than what it is represented in TSM. I think (and it has been a few years since I read it) that it...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 29223

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

6% EM Value, 6% EM. 12% of 70% equities, so about 17% of my equity portfolio is EM. I would normally have that at 10%P/14%EQ, but It is purposely tilted modestly, on which seems justified by valuations, but I'm not being all scientific and such... no matter how many calculations I do, the answers wi...
by Portfolio7
Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 136
Views: 22300

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

So, this is kind of interesting. Since I track that information already, in the form specified, I just had to divide the income by NW for each year to get 23 years worth of data. I won't claim the data is perfect, but it's calculated consistently, and covers from Age 27 to Age 49. We just jumped to ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 11185

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

I am new to everything so please excuse my ignorance if this is silly, but shouldn't tech be a good investment? Robots are getting more sophisticated and self-driving cars are only a few years out. I expect both of these to upset the labor market. So does everyone else, which means it's already pri...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's on other side of the low volatility trade-surprising answer
Replies: 6
Views: 1363

Re: Whose on other side of the low volatility trade-surprising answer

I read this article some days past, forget when, but it is a useful perspective. It's helpful to remember that really, after you strip away talk of probabilities and risk and return, that nobody really knows anything; it's all an educated guess, even when there are a lot of numbers behind it. I real...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment books I have read.
Replies: 56
Views: 15447

Re: Investment books I have read.

Hi, That is an impressive list and certainly will use it to drive my reading. One question however... Did any book really challenge your thinking. I want to hear what people have to say to this, great question. For me, Ken Fisher (Three Things) is one example where reading someone I don't really ag...
by Portfolio7
Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment books I have read.
Replies: 56
Views: 15447

Re: Investment books I have read.

Great list, thanks for posting! I have a stack of these in my reading 'in box'. It's tough to pick out a single book that influenced me most when it comes to a buy and hold and rebalance strategy with low cost index funds, because there are many good and strong influences, including certain blogs an...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 9273

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

Fwiw (I hope the formatting holds when I post!). The Simba spreadsheet seems to point to over 2 points of outperformance vs the three fund portfolio, for slightly less down side risk (if that's what down SD is telling me.) However, the last 30 years suggest maybe the spread has narrowed (?) to about...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock exchange sizes - are your allocation close to this
Replies: 12
Views: 1621

Re: Stock exchange sizes - are your allocation close to this

My portfolio closely resembles what is available for a US invester. I'm about 52% US 48% Int'l. Usually I am about 58%/42%, but given 10 year projections for the US Market and comparative valuations I am a little heavier in international/EM than usual. I don't believe in big swings in my portfolio, ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DALBAR report methodological flaws - Prof. Pfau
Replies: 31
Views: 4590

Re: DALBAR report methodological flaws - Prof. Pfau

I had noticed that estimates of investor underperformance vs the funds they invested in seemed to range from as low as 1% to as high as 5%, depending on what studies you happened to look at. Given the number of buy and hold (or buy and forget) 401k investors, the larger estimates seemed questionable...