Search found 694 matches

by Portfolio7
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 342
Views: 63421

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Calais, this is interesting. I hope it's ok to throw in my 2 cents, with both observations and questions: - I tilt to small cap due to historical risk/return trends and academic analysis of those trends and my assessment of their sustainability, not due to valuations. Valuations are tricky. I don't ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 11248

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

I agree with the several posts that 100% fixed income fails to minimize risk. I forget the source, but I've read that your AA should vary between 75/25 and 25/75. I think that's directionally correct, but the conclusion I came to after playing with all sorts of potential allocations is that anything...
by Portfolio7
Tue Nov 07, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 11207

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

Actually, I would hope there is another critical message conveyed by the interactive ad: That it actually is possible to build a million dollar nest egg without super-human abilities . That's the message I wish I had heard when I was younger, and it's one I've heard over and over again from many ot...
by Portfolio7
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 57
Views: 8021

Re: Expanding on The Rewards Of Multiple Asset Class Investing

I admire Gibson's observation, but you can't just slap 10 asset classes together and hope it all works out. There are a lot of portfolios where the parts don't play so well together, no potential advantage over a 3 fund portfolio, plenty of potential disadvantage. I think to take advantage of this i...
by Portfolio7
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA for children
Replies: 38
Views: 5507

Re: Roth IRA for children

Another Fidelity user here. My oldest has special needs, so that's a different discussion altogether. My youngest had his first job at age 15 and made almost $2,000. I told him if he put 50% into a Roth IRA, we'd match it. Free money. He got that pretty quick and went all in. So we went down to Fide...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4833

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

Chip wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:12 am
It's mentioned in Pfau's article, but let's remember that it was Bogleheads member tfb (Harry Sit - The Finance Buff) who first explored the problems with Dalbar's calculations and conclusions.
Chip, I wanted to thank you for this :beer :beer :beer ; I hadn't realized.
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4833

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

One correlary to the DALBAR findings, at least one that occurred to me, is that they would appear to validate the AUM advisor model. If you pay an advisor 1%, but your returns are ~ 4% better because you didn't make all those behavioral errors, aren't you better off by 3%? This presupposes that the...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?
Replies: 29
Views: 3179

Re: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?

At least with regard to the thread mentioning the QQQ ETF, it is Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Healthcare "heavy": My particular Asset Allocation appears to be light on Tech and Healthcare vs the total market sector weighting (I write 'appears' because some of my portfolio funds are proprietar...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4833

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

As far as precious metals funds, I have taken a good hard look but didn't buy in because of their poor long term records. I see them more as portfolio insurance, I didn't want to pay the premium. Definitely agree they aren't necessary, but I find it funny when posts start to pop up about adding to ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 4833

Do Investors really underperform their investments

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/10/09/investors-do-not-underperform-their-investments Dalbar continues their annual study results publication, suggesting investors underperformed their investments by 4.7% this year. Wade Pfau has noted errors in their methodology, early last March ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2178422

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Also, I'm not certain, but won't Cape adjust down significantly when 2008 rolls off the books (10 year calc.) ? This is an interesting comment. Is that true? Please correct me if I am wrong but CAPE 10 is the current price divided by the earning over 10 years. When the market dropped the price to e...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?
Replies: 29
Views: 3179

Re: NASDAQ as a significant portfolio component?

A number of portfolios work around a core and satellite type approach, even if 90% of it is your core 3-fund and 10% REIT, or 10% SCV. I don't see any strong philosophical reason not to own. Such funds are typically diversified, though to a lesser extent than many typical Index funds. I have 5% in a...
by Portfolio7
Sun Oct 22, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Observation on Edward Jones
Replies: 27
Views: 7317

Re: Observation on Edward ones

This is consistent with my experience with EJ. I have never invested with them, but I am considering a career change, and talked to a reasonably successful EJ guy about a year ago. The guy I talked to was fairly knowledgeable about several segments of the business, but flat out denied that they had ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2178422

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

With CAPE at 31+, I've decided to reduce my stock allocation by 10% for each point above 30. Trimmed 10% and will trim another 10% at 32, and so on. If it hits 40, I'm completely out. The bear is coming! Also, if you're just looking at CAPE why not shift 10% of your stock allocation at a time to in...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2178422

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

fantasytensai wrote:
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:25 pm
After all that, VTSAX finished in the green.
Well, that's it. You're off my 'contrary indicator' list. :wink:
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 7980

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

If you are young, the most effective element of your wealth building is to save more. Assuming you have a reasonable AA, are averaging in with paycheck contributions, and that you don't panic and sell in a crash - then all that's really in your control is the saving part. I don't expect a 30% + even...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 47
Views: 5570

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

[/quote] We hear a lot of press these days thAt "everything is overpriced"-stocks, bonds, real estate etc. Imho this is not true. We don't know what risks will materiLize. 10 years from now we'll know what was overpriced and what was cheap, with 20/20 hindsight. [/quote] +1 Great comment. I want to ...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 30
Views: 4920

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

Bogle is so sharp and nuanced and thoughtful in his public comments that I doubt anyone could find something that seriously contradicted his own words. The times he's strayed from his own advice he's been very open about. His followers contradict him infinitely more often :) +1 I trust very few wri...
by Portfolio7
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on BONDS and REITS?
Replies: 13
Views: 2228

Re: Thoughts on BONDS and REITS?

Bonds or similar Fixed Income (Stable Value, CD, Money Market) are critical tools to control your volatility risk. REITs come with a TSM index fund already, so you don't need to mess with them as a separate asset class, like VNQ or VNQI. I invest in both domestic and international REITs and I think ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 on pace as least volatile year on record
Replies: 5
Views: 1176

Re: 2017 on pace as least volatile year on record

I wonder if this is a result of trading algorithms providing liquidity and valuing the markets in similar fashion.... plus the steady flow of 401K $ into stocks and bonds via autopilot tending towards stability as well. I don't know enough to say yes or no, but it seams like a reasonable supposition...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 9102

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later

This sounds like an executive issuing cautionary information to nervous customers... reasonable thing to do. Meanwhile, the leading indicators of economic health suggests the market has room to run. :greedy More importantly, I need another 35 points out of the S&P 500 yet in order to make my predict...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 171
Views: 22864

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

There are many views available in the Fidelity site, that are useful. I personally use an Excel file also, without any automatic data pulls, which I'd like to add eventually. What I like about doing it this way: - I can structure the data the way I want to see it - It's easy to link into Net Worth c...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 4243

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

I remember wishing fervently I had money to invest after the crash. I was in college, every dime went to tuition, rent and food, and this looked like easy pickings... (it's easier to think that way when you've nothing at stake in the first place.)
by Portfolio7
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 178
Views: 29568

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Ages 50/48 Roughly 70/30 allocation. The idea is 12% each, LC, MC, SC, REIT, Int'l SC, EM and 28% FI (or 11% ea and 34%, etc). After a lot of reading, I gravitated to a portfolio that was equally split between complementary segments of the market. I've strayed from that approach on occasion (like no...
by Portfolio7
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 5698

Re: Gold ETF

I have a simpler way of holding gold. I have a big pile of $100 bills and I light one on fire every month. Cheaper that way. Love this. I invested some money in a gold ETF and watched it go up and ultimately down over 5+ years. I keep it in my portfolio to remind myself not to do stupid things. Thi...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 11745

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

That's certainly market timing, but it's a very different type of timing than the one people usually think about. You haven't changed your risk profile (kept the same stock:bond ratio, though I guess you could have switch out of consumer staples or something like that) or your expected returns. But...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash on the sidelines impact ?
Replies: 14
Views: 2243

Re: Cash on the sidelines impact ?

The only cash on the sidelines is the potential cash the Fed can create by depositing it into banks' accounts. An IPO is simply an exchange of ownership of the same asset(s). A private owner sold to a public one but the share they sold has a claim to the same assets. If you issue additional shares ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash on the sidelines impact ?
Replies: 14
Views: 2243

Re: Cash on the sidelines impact ?

There is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines" unless you mean the cash that is always there and doesn't change in quantity. The COTS metaphor imagines that the amount of cash available expands and shrinks, which is nuts. There is always the same amount of "cash" available and somebody has to ow...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 9927

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Yeah, we were tested in some ways, in the dot.com and housing busts. It's different every time. Hopefully you learn something. We weathered the first one without touching anything; then we sold/bought our way through the second in a defined way (and came out ahead with a healthy dose of luck.) We ca...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies
Replies: 43
Views: 5220

Re: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies

I maintain a base AA, but will direct from 0% to 10% depending on circumstances (e.g. overweighted in Int'l Equities/EM at the moment.) This is not recognized best practice, but keeps my worst impulses contained, protecting against 'big mistakes'. I'd like to think Charlie Munger would approve that ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 6697

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

No answer, but some questions... Isn't an investment decision supposed to be based on yield? Is it logical that demand for stocks increase in a low rate environment? I mean, I think Bogleheads work off a different foundation to some degree, but I think economists would approach it from this angle? A...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 492237

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

11.7% as Sept. close. 70/30 split. Small Value tilt hasn't done so well this year, though it rebounded last month.
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any advice on moving my company 401k?
Replies: 17
Views: 2066

Re: Any advice on moving my company 401k?

I work for a F500 firm. Our 401(k) has a 2 basis point plan fee that we all get charged on top of our fund fees. I pay about 32 basis points in total, though I could get it down to about 7 basis points if I went with a 3 fund allocation. I slice and dice, using a mix of mostly Vanguard and DFA funds...
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- Third Quarter Leaders
Replies: 13
Views: 2594

Re: 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST -- Third Quarter Leaders

Ok, this is pretty fun... #115 and closing! I'll be happy to take the loss, though, if the market decides to climb more than 85 points by year end. :beer
by Portfolio7
Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?
Replies: 68
Views: 9199

Re: So... What bond fund or bond-like instrument do you use?

We have access to a Stable Value fund. These are bonds in insurance wrappers, designed to create a steady stream of income. Ours (we both worked at the same employer for years) is currently yielding a shade over 3%, and is split between 8 highly rated insurance companies (and did just fine in 2008),...
by Portfolio7
Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 12514

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

The market tends to confound the best of investors, so I don't place big bets. I try to keep my bets limited, higher probability, lower risk. Saying that hundred of years of history are now definitively moot, is high risk. As for the article, it makes an interesting point, but the substantiation fee...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 24, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 6405

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

There are old investors, and there are bold investors, but there are no old bold investors. (Howard Marks) (Edit to give attribution) Been skewed international all year, but I'm no TAA adherent; not about to abandon US stock. I'm a bull on Int'l, but it's probably time for the dollar to about-face :...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 3115

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

Its been said for sometime now that the market is overvalued and is due for a correction soon, yesterday the Fed Chair had a press conference in which she stated 5 times that the Feds cannot account for why inflation has not moved UPWARD, using the term "MYSTERY", this breeds uncertainty and if the...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10748

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

It cracks me up to so regularly see threads like this, which go so clearly against the basic tenets of what BH seems to be about: keep it simple, keep it low cost, don't try to time/predict the market. And threads abound about complex portfolio tuning and market guesswork... :oops: Sure, but part o...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA if you were just starting out again
Replies: 49
Views: 4824

Re: AA if you were just starting out again

I'd save more. Pensions dissappearing make it tougher, and I'd give a lot to be FI now, at 50. I undervalued FI when I was younger. I'd start earlier. I started investing at age 29, my wife at 25. My initial post-tax investing strategy would be be more consistent, and avoid several mistakes. My AA w...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 4003

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

This is a very intriguing topic. As a simpleton investor, I have nothing particularly constructive to add. However I do wonder what the above suggests for the average Boglehead with a 3 fund +/- tilt portfolio. I think of a 3-Fund portfolio as the go-to approach for investing. It seems like the ult...
by Portfolio7
Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: measurement of success of investment(s)
Replies: 52
Views: 5813

Re: measurement of success of investment(s)

Hi, thanks for the article.. although after a couple of read-troughs I'm not sure if I fully understand it ! :P I think a problem with the "Funded Ratio" is that how its depicts most of the gain is in the final years when at that time people should be taking less risks. Anyway, for reaching the ret...
by Portfolio7
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: measurement of success of investment(s)
Replies: 52
Views: 5813

Re: measurement of success of investment(s)

Michael Kitces has a good article about tracking your overall progress towards your goals: https://www.kitces.com/blog/funded-ratio-for-individual-retirement-savings-goals/. I think this is the most important metric I have. In an individual fund/stock basis, I first decide on my approach. My asset a...
by Portfolio7
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 17 years of returns: sobering (updated OP)
Replies: 123
Views: 26689

Re: 17 years of returns: sobering (updated OP)

Interesting thought. I started at about the same time, 1994. CAGR is difficult to calculate with a shifting DCA, but assuming consistent monthly contributions (which isn't quite true, employer contributions throw that off a bit), and then calculating the rate that yields my current balance vs the an...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 5160

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

In all honesty, I'm still at #1. I mean, there are always segments of the global market that don't look promising, and in this case it may be the US... but who can say for sure. Even if the reduced 10 year outlook is true, you don't know the SOR, and that's kinda important. That's another good reaso...
by Portfolio7
Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2178422

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have one... the single individual stock I own in my play money. First Hawaiian Bank dropped ten percent while the rest of the market rose. Go figure. Oh well, I needed to offset some capital gains on my tax filing anyway... Hey, First Hawaiian is the only stock I've every owned outside of indexes...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help! - How to improve small company 401k?
Replies: 19
Views: 2230

Re: Help! - How to improve small company 401k?

my 2 cents, fwiw... there are a lot of players in this space now, but several don't publish their cost structure. I've done some preliminary work for my wife's company, and I really liked what I learned about Employee Fiduciary, and I think the on-going analysis is trending towards selecting them. I...
by Portfolio7
Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 7462

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

I wish I could say this feeling isn't related to the long-running Bull market we are in. But I know if things were down I would be much more aggressive. I suppose there are worse sins than being a tactical asset allocator within a 10-20% range. :twisted: I expect there are a lot of ways to apply th...
by Portfolio7
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: James Altucher's get-rich-quick pitch
Replies: 17
Views: 5931

Re: James Altucher's get-rich-quick pitch

Altucher is a pretty smart guy, who's made and lost and made a lot of money. His ideas on money don't seem to fit the Boglehead mold very well. I find him entertaining, but take his thoughts with a grain of salt. https://20somethingfinance.com/the-worst-401k-advice-youll-ever-get-from-james-altucher/
by Portfolio7
Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 5026

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

This thread reminds me of the Tolstoy quote from AK: "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." There are probably a thousand ways to not stick to a long-term investing plan, but buy and hold is pretty much just that. :beer