Search found 712 matches

by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity returns over the next 40 years
Replies: 63
Views: 2657

Re: Equity returns over the next 40 years

Thinking of a different actionable element of this question - I admit, I've never understood planning at 4% real when the market has returned ~7% historically First, frankly, I am very unlikely to reach my goals at 2-4% real. At 5-6% I have a fighting chance, and that motivates me. Second, part of ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity returns over the next 40 years
Replies: 63
Views: 2657

Re: Equity returns over the next 40 years

Thinking of a different actionable element of this question - I admit, I've never understood planning at 4% real when the market has returned ~7% historically, it feels like a luxury of having a high income. I mean, I get the idea that you're planning for the worst case, and also that for the next ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity returns over the next 40 years
Replies: 63
Views: 2657

Re: Equity returns over the next 40 years

Thinking of a different actionable element of this question - I admit, I've never understood planning at 4% real when the market has returned ~7% historically, it feels like a luxury of having a high income. I mean, I get the idea that you're planning for the worst case, and also that for the next ...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity returns over the next 40 years
Replies: 63
Views: 2657

Re: Equity returns over the next 40 years

Thinking of a different actionable element of this question - I admit, I've never understood planning at 4% real when the market has returned ~7% historically, it feels like a luxury of having a high income. I mean, I get the idea that you're planning for the worst case, and also that for the next d...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 4932

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

I wasn’t investing at the time. I think about it often. I think to myself 2000-2002 would be worse than 2008, 3 years of negative returns. Which was worse for you people that went through both? I'm 53, and this answer will reflect my core Boglehead sin, though I'm entirely on board with low cost in...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do analyst forecasts have any value?
Replies: 16
Views: 957

Re: Do analyst forecasts have any value?

So Ken Fisher claimed that he would aggregate market forecasts at the beginning of the year from as many sources as he could find. They would typically cluster near each other. He would classify it into 4 possibilities: Up big, up small, down small, down big. Where the forecasts were clustered was t...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 4932

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

I wasn’t investing at the time. I think about it often. I think to myself 2000-2002 would be worse than 2008, 3 years of negative returns. Which was worse for you people that went through both? I'm 53, and this answer will reflect my core Boglehead sin, though I'm entirely on board with low cost in...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 141
Views: 23690

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

Age 53. 56% as best I can figure between DW and me. If using SS earnings, it's about 60%. My performance really lagged last decade.

At age 49, 4 years ago, I was at 41% (45% SS)... so it's been on a tear recently.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7190

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

However, I suspect low rates will be with us, more or less, for a very long time. Low real or low nominal? I was thinking in nominal terms, but also real rates. The deflationary (for the US) global cycle seems to me likely to run a couple decades more. Investment is shifting in terms of it's relati...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7190

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

How long will they keep these rates so low? Seems like the economy is pretty healthy right now. Corporate debt is about out of control. Consumer debt has been out of control for a long time now. Just seems crazy that the Fed hasn’t raised rates hardly any in years. Are we going to be like Europe an...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Data and Market Forecasting
Replies: 24
Views: 1206

Re: Big Data and Market Forecasting

Predicting the market is like trying to invent a perpetual motion machine. Won't ever happen over the long term, imho. Apparent success contains the root of eventual failure. Anyways, I suspect people will start with risk first. It seems to me it's a lot more accessible to model when volatility is e...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 102
Views: 12513

Re: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?

One takeaway from this thread is that it wouldn't take a whole lot to get a portfolio named after yourself. I think I have come around to a lazy portfolio (the original question) according to one of the definitions. I do like to fiddle with my investments which is basically a bad thing. I am trying...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF to Hold for 50 Years
Replies: 69
Views: 4561

Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

Actually, I'm soliciting suggestions on this question... one son worked from age 14, and I got him into a Roth IRA. He's 17 now. (My other son has unique circumstances). Because of various incentives at different times, the portfolio is a little odd: His Portfolio is: VT (Total World Stock) 65% The ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 389
Views: 208771

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

Many if not most reasonable rebalancing strategies would have run out of money before what turned out to be the bottom. Hmmm. I had a pretty good chunk of bonds at the time. Doesn't seem like I would have run out but maybe I'm not really understanding how things really work way down there still app...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR with Total World Fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 524

Re: SWR with Total World Fund?

if one is optimizing for SWR, i think ACWV is a better pick since it has lower volatility and less sequence risk which is the biggest enemy of SWR. Its dividend yield is also higher (2.74% vs 2.36%) See . VMNVX is a global min vol fund worth considering too. It and ACWV seem to be the better perfor...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 389
Views: 208771

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

Did you keep track of your net worth? Would be great to see how it progressed from 2007-2020. I'm sure you'll get many different perspectives, and divergence between accumulators and decumulators. As an accumulater, my retirement savings balance at the end of 2019 was 2.94 times what it was Dec 31 ...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 102
Views: 12513

Re: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?

I think the term "lazy portfolio" was coined by Paul T. Farrell of MarketWatch: Paul T. Farrell's Lazy Portfolios. I believe so too. I can't even remember how long I've been familiar with them, but if I had to guess it's been a decade or so. He started using the term in his Marketwatch columns, and...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone have 'Lazy Portfolios'?
Replies: 102
Views: 12513

Re: "Three Proofs That Total Stock Market is Efficient"

Saying that it (Total Stock Market Index Fund) is "mathematically lowest risk for highest return" is simply untrue. Not according to this study: Three Proofs That TSM Is Efficient . Best wishes. Taylor Thanks, Taylor. I'd be interested to hear whether everyone agrees with the assumptions made there...
by Portfolio7
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 623
Views: 59187

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Has anyone played around with the charts on portfoliocharts.com for NTSX? You can't pick the fund exactly, but you can do 90% TSM, 60% IT, -50% Cash or BIL. NTSX has a very short history, so any conclusions one draws from it's performance are highly suspect, but I think it is interesting to note wh...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 284
Views: 16846

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

As we watch this stock market melt up and experience an unemployment rate that hovers near record lows, it seems like the fed funds rate should be raised. The main reason I hear for why it is being held so low (and juicing the economy further, possibly blowing asset bubbles) is because “inflation i...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 87
Views: 5002

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Well first of all - we all do this, at some level. For any BH's AA, I can ask about why it's not more or less aggressive, or 3 fund vs 2 fund, or TIPS vs standard Treasuries. The answers will be reasonable and rationalized and written in black and white in your IPS, but the buried reality of the sit...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technological revolution?
Replies: 16
Views: 1549

Re: Technological revolution?

I wonder if AI will break the stock market. A perfect AI would make the markets perfectly efficient. I don't think one can define 'perfect' in a way that bears any resemblance to reality, but perhaps one day it will dominate the markets Indexing would be the only sane way for individuals to invest ...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 87
Views: 5002

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Are you right now "reassessing your risk tolerance" or "reexamining your investment policy" or undertaking some Bogleian exercise all in the name of justifying what your gut demands of you.. to SELLLLL!!!? Are you a closet market-timer? Well, yes, but why do you want to know? I went from 75/25 to 8...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301512

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Razasharpz wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:35 pm
Bogleheads complaining the market is too high. Good grief. Don't ever stop buying VTSAX
+1.
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can we know whether the market's overvalued?
Replies: 53
Views: 3809

Re: How can we know whether the market's overvalued?

As someone who got burned in the crypto bubble, I'm very curious about this. When you look at indicators like Marketcap to GDP and Price to Earnings, the market has been way overvalued for a long time. https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp/ https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Yet, are thes...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Should I add] VMVFX Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund to add International
Replies: 6
Views: 565

Re: [Should I add] VMVFX Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund to add International

I am not even sure if I want international. I keep going back and forth on the issue and ultimately is a personal choice but key is to choose something I can live with. No more that 20% if I committed to it. So that means I would probably have to allocate at least 40% towards VMVFX or Star in each ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changing company 401k plan
Replies: 10
Views: 689

Re: Changing company 401k plan

There are a lot of threads on this topic. Search 'Employee Fiduciary" or other companies, or various phrases. My wife's company went with Emp Fid. They ended up with an excellent lineup of very good funds at a very low cost. I don't know if the price compares are the same, but EF was among the best ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth ??
Replies: 129
Views: 11653

Re: Net Worth ??

Much depends on why you are calculating Net worth. As mentioned, if you are just trying to grow it over time, just about any reasonable approach is fine. I track net worth to try to understand what assets are available to me should I change my life circumstances. To do so I include: - Retirement acc...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 111187

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

...not even eligible for a % of FIL's SS.) How can this be, not eligible for spousal benefits? IKR? This blew me away too. As I understand it, it's a pretty rare application of law for US federal gov't workers with a particular form of gov't pension and little to no work experience in the private s...
by Portfolio7
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a new bull market?
Replies: 20
Views: 2168

Re: Are we in a new bull market?

I still keep hearing "longest bull market" despite us having a 20% reset in Dec 2018. That should be the start of the new cycle. If not, then why is 1991 conveniently included in the reset? The market fell just as much in 1991 yet many charts i've seen consider 1982-91 as one cycle and 92-99 as ano...
by Portfolio7
Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Valuation vis-a-vis the Fed
Replies: 4
Views: 404

Stock Market Valuation vis-a-vis the Fed

I really enjoyed this post by Tim Duy (who many follow for reasoned perspective on the Fed.) It includes discussion of what is essentially sample size (countering a particular chart) and comments on general stock market perspective vis-a-vis Fed activities. In particular I thought his take (link bel...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA, Sequence of Returns, and 'Enough'
Replies: 3
Views: 556

Re: AA, Sequence of Returns, and 'Enough'

Maybe I'm too simple, all the reading I've done about sequence of returns and AA doesn't seem to do anything for me but make me want to hit my number as soon as possible and de-risk. So, my current thinking is to maintain an aggressive stance until volatility risk outweighs the damage of falling sho...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 623
Views: 59187

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I have been thinking a lot about NTSX and it's use as part of an all-weather/risk parity strategy. In fact, I assisted my father-in-law in buying some shares of NTSX today to implement such a strategy. He is 60 and really needs to save and invest well over the next decade if he wants to retire at 7...
by Portfolio7
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.
Replies: 123
Views: 10803

Re: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.

Why do I need to know my net worth? Why should I care? I guess it depends. If you are secure in your income and plan on retiring in place, and you have no other financial complications, maybe you don't need to. Otoh, Net worth details your resources. This is helpful if in addition to standard asset...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 111187

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I feel like threads like these are the Bogleheads' equivalent of keeping-up-with-the-Joneses, except that we are competing to be the most frugal or stealthy wealthy. What I want you all to know is I got you all beat. When I walk into diners, people feel like giving me free food. That's how poor I l...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 493322

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

2019: returns were a shade over 20% on retirement investments (21% Beardstown). AA was roughly 75/25 for 2019 with a US/Int'l equity split of 60/40. One thing that I find so interesting is how very similar portfolios (in appearance, at least) can yield pretty different results. I suppose that's one ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301512

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

If we're doing predictions, I already posted my 16% S&P500 gain in the Boglehead contest. Also 30% for EM, 22% for Developed Int'l. Talk about whistling past the graveyard... That yield curve inversion is still tickling my awareness as well. I have $8K automated matching going in today - but hey, I ...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 111187

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I feel like threads like these are the Bogleheads' equivalent of keeping-up-with-the-Joneses, except that we are competing to be the most frugal or stealthy wealthy. What I want you all to know is I got you all beat. When I walk into diners, people feel like giving me free food. That's how poor I l...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 111187

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

...not even eligible for a % of FIL's SS.) How can this be, not eligible for spousal benefits? IKR? This blew me away too. As I understand it, it's a pretty rare application of law for US federal gov't workers with a particular form of gov't pension and little to no work experience in the private s...
by Portfolio7
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2670
Views: 493322

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Thank you for the corrections. I always front-load everything during the first 3 months of the year. So, I re-did my calculations after reading your post, and we’ve made some further gains in the last month, overall my YTD return across all accounts is right around 25%, and increase in net worth is...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301512

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Per the Morningstar app's US Barometer, every 9 field box is green (gains) for the day, week, month, 3 month, year, and 3 years. Its been quite awhile since they did not have at least a flash of red. Looks like it will be a Merry Christmas for many reasons! But, if we get a repeat of last year I'll...
by Portfolio7
Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Backtesting Relevant at All?
Replies: 45
Views: 2505

Re: Is Backtesting Relevant at All?

How relevant are backtesting results for your investing? Do you invest based on these results? If so then you really are believing the past predicts the future....even though we all know it does not. I decided on my portfolio approach. After building my portfolio, I backtested it. It had solid perf...
by Portfolio7
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Backtesting Relevant at All?
Replies: 45
Views: 2505

Re: Is Backtesting Relevant at All?

How relevant are backtesting results for your investing? Do you invest based on these results? If so then you really are believing the past predicts the future....even though we all know it does not. I decided on my portfolio approach. After building my portfolio, I backtested it. It had solid perf...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ "Economists got the decade all wrong"
Replies: 40
Views: 5368

Re: WSJ "Economists got the decade all wrong"

There was a University study mid 2000's I think, I believe it was at Michigan, that examined Oil Forecasts, reviewing futures, bank and investment organizations, & pundits, as I recall. Hang me if I can find the link. They determined that it was better to assume no change to oil prices in the future...
by Portfolio7
Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 94
Views: 7493

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

There is one other consideration. The incentives align better for ITT. The gov't is not going to repay the bond early. Default risk is zero-ish (gov't has to choose to default or print.) I prefer ITT slightly, but i'd not hesitate to put all my bond allocation in TBM.
by Portfolio7
Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 120734

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I guess my thinking is more in line with https://www.bis.org/publ/work791.pdf This paper suggests that our current framework for understanding inflation dynamics is not “dead,” but does need an overhaul. More specifically, inflation models should more explicitly incorporate “globalization” – define...
by Portfolio7
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 117
Views: 15808

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

What do you think of preferred stocks? Rick Ferri recommends ETFs like PFFD for the higher yield over corporates, while having similar behavior, and a good chunk of distributions being qualified dividend income, making it suitable for taxable accounts in some situations. Hmm... But looks like I Sho...
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301512

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

livesoft wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:31 am
This situation is rife with insider trading possibilities.
Just the other day I was thinking how lucrative it would be to know in advance when these trade deal tweets would be issued.
by Portfolio7
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3151
Views: 301512

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

History has had a bullish bias, but with volatility.

It seems reasonable to expect more of the same.