Search found 517 matches

by Tamalak
Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reuters article - Vanguard asks passive investors to pay attention for proxy vote
Replies: 6
Views: 1757

Re: Reuters article - Vanguard asks passive investors to pay attention for proxy vote

Thanks for this. I was planning to ignore the 'vote now!' banner but if they actually need my vote to avoid expenses, I'll go for it.
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor
Replies: 49
Views: 4845

Re: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor

OP, I'm impressed by how you managed to stand your ground against this scum, even though you were totally unprepared for the meeting and unsure of yourself. You're a rare breed.
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 19749

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

No, there's no place for bitcoin. Bitcoin is a currency. The average forward-looking expected return on a currency is zero. The average forward-looking expected real return on a currency is zero minus inflation. Take a moment to feel good for lottery winners, and then move on. The argument for Bitc...
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational fears?
Replies: 23
Views: 2446

Re: Irrational fears?

There is safety in numbers. You are one of millions of people invested in Vanguard. The scenarios you describe, I think, have never happened. If they DID happen to someone, the chances are one in millions that it would be you. You are a pigeon in a mountain of pigeons, whether or not there is a fox ...
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 19749

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

No, there's no place for bitcoin. Bitcoin is a currency. The average forward-looking expected return on a currency is zero. The average forward-looking expected real return on a currency is zero minus inflation. Take a moment to feel good for lottery winners, and then move on. The argument for Bitc...
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 19749

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

No, there's no place for bitcoin. Bitcoin is a currency. The average forward-looking expected return on a currency is zero. The average forward-looking expected real return on a currency is zero minus inflation.

Take a moment to feel good for lottery winners, and then move on.
by Tamalak
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much weight do you put on back-testing?
Replies: 53
Views: 4535

Re: How much weight do you put on back-testing?

I use the historical average gain of the total stock market (6%-ish real) as a vague guess as to average expected future returns. I will not be shocked at all if it's wildly different. Stocks are shares in a VENTURE to try to create wealth, and every venture is new.
by Tamalak
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"
Replies: 30
Views: 5786

Re: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"

I never understood the need for circuit breakers. Who cares if idiots privately trade shares of the same company - or currency - I'm holding for 80% less than fair value? It doesn't change the company. And it only temporarily changes the market value of the company's shares unless that 80% loss is j...
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning from loss
Replies: 23
Views: 3209

Re: Learning from loss

I think people tend to rationalize losses as a "lesson" more often than actually learning a lesson from them. I remember when GTAT went belly up and people lost their life savings many were "oh but I learned so much". No you didn't, you already knew how foolish putting everything in one speculative ...
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation
Replies: 21
Views: 5140

Re: Perhaps you shouldn't rebalance your international stock allocation

I hold VTI and VXUS at cap, and you're right that there's not a lot of need for rebalancing, but what about new IPOs? Those won't increase the value of a fund but they will increase the capitalization of that region.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle video (discusses international)
Replies: 44
Views: 5049

Re: John Bogle video (discusses international)

Bogle was wrong about international VTI up 0.24% today VXUS up 0.64% Q.E.D.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme
Replies: 77
Views: 7545

Re: Active investing is a Ponzi scheme

Active investing (with high fees) is a simple scam, not a Ponzi scheme. It doesn't have anything like the structure of a Ponzi scheme.
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 23, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scary times.. not really. Rebalance recommendations?
Replies: 9
Views: 2433

Re: Scary times.. not really. Rebalance recommendations?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:37 am
I firmly believe and follow Jack Bogle's quote about future returns:

"Nobody knows nothing"
"Nobody knows nothing, except U.S. stocks are better to invest in than international. We totally know that." -Bogle
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you hire an obese nanny?
Replies: 81
Views: 4595

Re: Would you hire an obese nanny?

No, I would not hire someone who is obviously unhealthy, especially ill health that is self-inflicted.
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are US S&P 500 Index funds speculative investments?
Replies: 63
Views: 6000

Re: Are US S&P 500 Index funds speculative investments?

A thimble factory produces something. A box of thimbles doesn't.

A thimble factory is an investment, a box of thimbles is speculation.

The above is true no matter how much or how little I know about thimbles.

So which one is the S&P?
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...
Replies: 35
Views: 6162

Re: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...

spdoublebass wrote:
Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:54 am
Tamalak wrote:
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:02 am
I WOULD hold VT if the ER was lower. Instead I hold VTI/VXUS at cap with each other.
BRK.A is .25% of VT and .04% of VTI
BRK.B is .43% of VT and 0% of VTI
Huh, really? Why??
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Become a Spender?
Replies: 16
Views: 1963

Re: How to Become a Spender?

Figure out what will bring you happiness and do that. It doesn't matter if it's cheap or pricy. You have no obligation to spend your money!
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which dividends to take?
Replies: 4
Views: 751

Re: Which dividends to take?

If you can live off VTI dividends why not just retire now?
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 9549

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

OP, financially you're doing fine, but I would see a psychologist for your validation- and attention-seeking behavior :oops:
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jobs that pay over $100,000
Replies: 157
Views: 19954

Re: Jobs that pay over $100,000

So many people chastising this kid to "chase his passion". I have a couple friends who swallowed that advice wholesale from their idiot boomer parents, now they're in $150,000 debt for a degree in therapeutic basket weaving appreciation. Maybe this kid's passion is making a ton of money so he's free...
by Tamalak
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...
Replies: 35
Views: 6162

Re: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...

I WOULD hold VT if the ER was lower. Instead I hold VTI/VXUS at cap with each other.
by Tamalak
Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 39
Views: 6874

Re: Irrational Despair?

"7 signs" the stock market is ready to run smack into a wall?

Was this right next to a link telling you how to "avoid market crashes with this one weird trick!"? :oops:

"Bear markets hate him!"
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 250
Views: 63336

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

My decision was 0% International. Two years later, I am wondering 'why I am so smart'? I look and see its up..now I'm thinking I would be smart to get international in general but not now.... Market timing is hard. :oops: Consternation. And this is what tilting results in. Even on those years when ...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 183
Views: 19514

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

2015 wrote:
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:49 pm
Unbelievable that a thread like this would warrant 3 pages. Really?
You're just jealous because 2017's more exciting than you.
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496803

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'll bite because I admit I'm still learning--and I am genuinely interested. How exactly do we lose money if we don't sell the shares and actually realize the loss? If I have a wallet with $100 in it, and someone steals $10 out of it, is it a real loss then, or when I open the wallet and take the m...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496803

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'll bite because I admit I'm still learning--and I am genuinely interested. How exactly do we lose money if we don't sell the shares and actually realize the loss? If I have a wallet with $100 in it, and someone steals $10 out of it, is it a real loss then, or when I open the wallet and take the m...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 183
Views: 19514

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Man, I understand the whole 'it's only paper losses' thing, and I see the value in thinking that way if you're trying to soothe your anxiety about buy and hold. But it's just factually wrong, for something SO liquid as a stock. You really are making/losing THOUSANDS of dollars most days. Practically...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 183
Views: 19514

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

OP beat me. I lost only $5,000 that day. For some reason it doesn't bother me at all, even after I calculate how many days of work that equates to. I guess part of it is I was lucky to dump my life savings into stocks at a (so far) good time, September 2015. Even the losses are fun. It's like a litt...
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."
Replies: 89
Views: 27471

Re: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."

Proposal 7— A shareholder proposal to institute transparent procedures to avoid holding investments in companies that, in management’s judgement, substantially contribute to genocide or crimes against humanity, the most egregious violations of human rights. How would not holding Genocide Corp stock...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496803

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wouldn't want a market dip at any time, even in the accumulation phase. If the market drops 10% it means the estimation of its value and future potential has gone down 10%. It's not "yay I'm buying potatoes and they're on sale" it's "oh I'm buying potatoes and they're on sale because of spoilage....
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496803

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wouldn't want a market dip at any time, even in the accumulation phase. If the market drops 10% it means the estimation of its value and future potential has gone down 10%. It's not "yay I'm buying potatoes and they're on sale" it's "oh I'm buying potatoes and they're on sale because of spoilage."...
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 49
Views: 5990

Re: bitcoin makes you rich

Not going to touch bitcoin, or any other currency. It's speculation. The average expected return of a speculative investment is 0.
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what % of international stock
Replies: 36
Views: 3413

Re: what % of international stock

Just buy VT. International at capitalization.
by Tamalak
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 84
Views: 13934

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

It's always been my policy that if your net worth is below zero, listen to Dave Ramsey, and if it's above zero, listen to Bogleheads.
by Tamalak
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?
Replies: 25
Views: 2695

Re: Invest in U.S. ETFs Now?

There is a chance of a crash when the market is at an all time high. There is a chance of a crash when the market has been flat. There is a chance of a crash when the market has just crashed. The market returns a risk premium because the market is risky. You are not going to get the risk premium wit...
by Tamalak
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 335
Views: 64981

Re: Retreat to cash

The best time in the last few decades to buy stocks was when P/E was over 100 - the bottom of the 2008 crisis. Prices were deflated, but Earnings were deflated a whole lot more!

P/E fetishizing concerns me. It's a useful tool but so simple it's easily abused..
by Tamalak
Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow up-Total Stock Market Index Fund Down??
Replies: 14
Views: 1621

Re: Dow up-Total Stock Market Index Fund Down??

There is a reason the Dow will continue being reported for ages to come.

Say "Dow" three times fast.

Now say "S&P 500" three times fast.

There you go.
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 250k in savings. need some advice and a kick in the butt
Replies: 31
Views: 4438

Re: 250k in savings. need some advice and a kick in the butt

Please enlighten me and everyone else, what artifice is inflating the market and how far above the correct valuation is the market right now? People come here for help and advice. I don't think this tone is really helpful. :( I am just eager to learn from someone who actually knows what the correct...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 250k in savings. need some advice and a kick in the butt
Replies: 31
Views: 4438

Re: 250k in savings. need some advice and a kick in the butt

i just dont feel knowledgeable enough about individual stocks i dont trust the artifically inflated market. You don't know a whole lot about stocks but you sure do know better than the professionals setting the prices with their own money? Please enlighten me and everyone else, what artifice is inf...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 8451

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

If "low PE" means "higher expected forward-looking returns", then don't merely move international. Shove all your money into Russia and Africa.
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wells Fargo - what the kittens?
Replies: 36
Views: 3722

Re: Wells Fargo - what the kittens?

I've banked with Wells Fargo since their inception ... Okay, you made me look. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_banks_in_continuous_operation I am also a vampire. (Sorry, I meant to say I banked with them since they took over Wachovia, which for some reason is when I consider them to have start...
by Tamalak
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wells Fargo - what the kittens?
Replies: 36
Views: 3722

Re: Wells Fargo - what the kittens?

I've banked with Wells Fargo since their inception and I've had no (known) issues with them. I only use them for simple banking services for 10kish money. Had considered taking out a mortgage with them once, thank goodness that fell thru. Even though my interaction with them is limited and I've had ...
by Tamalak
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VT vs VTI+VXUS
Replies: 3
Views: 2202

Re: VT vs VTI+VXUS

I do VXUS + VTI and keep it cap weighted. Only reason I do this instead of just buying VT is the expense ratios. I feel a bit silly doing it. A nerd hobby that saves me maybe $100 a year.
by Tamalak
Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does VGTSX have potential to go up? Double? Triple?
Replies: 13
Views: 2825

Re: Does VGTSX have potential to go up? Double? Triple?

If you want to double or triple quickly, you definitely don't want a broad index fund, yeah. Even the absolute best case scenario historically it would take a few years (3+) just to double. Average historical it takes 7 years to double. To double in REAL terms (after inflation) you need 11 years ave...
by Tamalak
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 166
Views: 13078

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

It looks like the only two significant time periods where ex-US stock outperformed US stock were in 1986-90 and 2003-08. Maybe we're about due for another one, or maybe not. By coincidence ( not! ) these are two periods of time of significant dollar weakening. https://s11.postimg.org/jq2qboo2b/Capt...
by Tamalak
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 166
Views: 13078

Re: The crowd is always wrong

"If you believe Jack Bogle, here's where you should invest." I'm not here because I 'believe Jack Bogle', I'm here because one particular thing advocated by Jack Bogle (index investing), I have come to be convinced thru reason is a really good idea. That does not mean Jack Bogle becomes a prophet. ...
by Tamalak
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 166
Views: 13078

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

You don't NEED international stock. You also don't NEED stocks that start with the letter 'n'. But why would you exclude them? Has there ever been a time that international out performed the us markets? Yes, often: https://www.hartfordfunds.com/content/thf/en/insights/client-conversations/Investing...
by Tamalak
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 166
Views: 13078

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

You don't NEED international stock. You also don't NEED stocks that start with the letter 'n'.

But why would you exclude them?
by Tamalak
Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Worst ETFs You Can Own"
Replies: 38
Views: 4354

Re: "The Worst ETFs You Can Own"

"It is weasel-worded, but the clear message is: do not use leveraged ETFs as part of any buy-and-hold strategy." Are we absolutely sure about this? If we tracked a 2x total stock ETF over 100 years, would that still be worse than a 1x total stock? I'm guessing yes. But what about a 1.1x? A 1.5? I do...