Search found 880 matches

by Independent George
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21863

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Everyone needs to do what is best for them, it's your money so take whatever actions you feel are right, and don't regret them. But much of the commentary here reminds me of The Princess Bride and the scene with Westley and Vizzini: The virus is much worse than the market is pricing in, so surely w...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16938

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

dbadalam wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:25 amI know I can't change a persons belief because it based on bigotry, faith and emotion. I learned that growing up in the states. So we are going to continue to disagree.
The fact that you immediately call him a bigot ensures is what ensures you will not changes anyone belief.
by Independent George
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16938

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

It's a moving target. I am projected to be at about 35% in 2020, but this is very much a recent change in behavior. When I first started working, I invested about 10% of my gross income every year - hitting the $3k Roth IRA max on my $30k gross salary. Once I vested in a 401k, it went up to about 15...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of stocks?
Replies: 101
Views: 6720

Re: What is the point of stocks?

InvestingGeek wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:47 pm I doubt there's any data here. It's just trying to get a rise out of the forum aka trolling. The dividends alone easily beat that CD.
Account was created in 2014. Who joins a forum for six years then decides to become a troll?
by Independent George
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of stocks?
Replies: 101
Views: 6720

Re: What is the point of stocks?

watchnerd wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:46 pm Maybe not including dividends?

Although I don't think that would explain it.
Maybe he invested a lump sum right before the dot com crash, and never added another dollar since then?
by Independent George
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of stocks?
Replies: 101
Views: 6720

Re: What is the point of stocks?

I am not trolling. If you are under 50 and you do not have a negative cumulative return, please post on this tread to give us hope. I will be shocked if anyone does. Turned 43 last month. My 401k has returned a cumulative 7.86% return since 2004 (when I vested). I'm not sure what my Roth IRA has re...
by Independent George
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online shopping during the current crisis
Replies: 18
Views: 1604

Re: Online shopping during the current crisis

I've been holding off on online shopping. I don't know how much effect I'll have on my own, but I figured it really doesn't cost me anything to wait a few weeks.
by Independent George
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29813

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

I have to admit - I've been sorely tempted to do exactly what the title says. The more people panic, the more I want to buy. Fortunately, good sense overrode my instincts (which are just as wrong as the people dumping stocks). Instead, I rebalanced my Roth IRA, and have been sleeping happily ever si...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 519
Views: 48024

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Ugh.. Someone please tell me that my 30 year old self will be fine. I'm staying the course. I just can't stop listening and reading this horrible market news. Futures looking GRIM again for 3/19. You will be fine. In descending order of importance, the things to worry about right now are (1) your h...
by Independent George
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

On the plus side, has anyone else noticed that the yield curve isn't inverted anymore?
by Independent George
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can bogleheads help during this crisis?
Replies: 20
Views: 1342

Re: How can bogleheads help during this crisis?

Check in on elderly neighbors and volunteer to procure supplies for them so they don't have to leave the house.
by Independent George
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 7465
Views: 511083

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I somehow missed this thread; I got a 15 years at 3.25% (with $3,500 fees, not points paid) back in September 2019. At this point, I'm not interested in refinancing again unless I can get it down to below 2.75% (which seems unlikely even in this rate environment). I think I'm at the point of diminis...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"
Replies: 142
Views: 7492

Re: Why do people say "its only on paper, its not a real loss"

It depends. The overwhelming majority of my assets are in retirement accounts, which I cannot access without penalty for at least another 17 years. While the loss in value is real, but it's also not something that affects me in any meaningful way. Realizing that has made the recent nosedive much eas...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7514

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

Is the implication that the people who lived below their means & saved as much as feasible are in a worse situation than those who didn't? There were always a lot of unrealistic FIRE attempts, just as there are a lot of unrealistic Bogleheads who thought they could handle a stock-heavy portfolio but...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 519
Views: 48024

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

I thought about posting this in the 'Freefall' thread, but it seems more appropriate here. Right now, if I made a list of things I'm worried about, it would be (in descending order of priority): 1. The health of parents in NYC. 2. The health of my friends, co-workers, and my older neighbors. 3. My j...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I see some congresspersons are calling for $1,000 checks to be sent out to the public. Wow, now that's going to help ease the pain of that 30% loss you just took on your stocks, eh? Actually, it probably will. I'd guess more people are concerned more about paying their rent and putting food on the ...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?
Replies: 56
Views: 3869

Re: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?

My hard drive crashed three weeks ago. I ordered a replacement that same day, and I'm still waiting. Fortunately, I have multiple devices to keep me occupied - something that would have been unheard of when I was a kid.
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It turns out... I don't actually know how to rebalance
Replies: 14
Views: 1266

Re: It turns out... I don't actually know how to rebalance

Add up your portfolio and figure the percentages of the big asset classes (stocks vs bonds). If your goal is 80% stocks and you have fallen to 74% stocks, just sell some bonds to get the stocks back into band by a point or two. In this case, figure out what 3% of the portfolio is, sell that amount ...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 519
Views: 48024

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Let's put things in perspective. In 1945, the entire world economy was pretty much wrecked. Not just the estimated 85 million people killed (3% of the world total, most of whom being military aged men), but industry, infrastructure, and agriculture. Not only that, the entire eastern half of Europe w...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It turns out... I don't actually know how to rebalance
Replies: 14
Views: 1266

It turns out... I don't actually know how to rebalance

I've never had to rebalance before, so now that I'm hitting my bands, I realized I don't actually know how to do it. I don't mean the theory of rebalancing - I mean how do I sell my bond mutual fund and buy a stock mutual fund at the desired allocation when: 1. The actual transaction price will be s...
by Independent George
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

With the Fed dropping rates to zero, and saying they will stay there a long time, I guess that means they think this will be no V recovery type of downturn. Normally that would pump the market. It might do so Monday. I'm not sure. It seems so desperate. But I expect a downward trend after that. QE ...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Some prominent economists say we're in a recession now. https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1238259924393693184 GDP is almost certainly contracting in Q1. It won't be a recession until it happens for two consecutive quarters (which I'm almost positive it will, possibly three). The question is f...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

GoldenFinch wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:13 pm I hope your crystal ball is on the crystal ball recall list.
Why? It works about as well as anyone else's crystal ball.
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I went back and polished off the old crystal ball. Back in December 2018, I called an S&P bottom at 1450. Just another 40% to go!
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capitulation
Replies: 59
Views: 5413

Re: Capitulation

I had 340k-350k a few weeks ago and now I'm busted down to 260k. I'm 88/12 at 45 years old and really had no fear of my allocation being a problem. I am seriously considering drawing a hard line at 250k and going into VBTLX. I never thought I'd even contemplate capitulation, but these market moveme...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 25% to 30% Stocks still recommended for 30 yr retirement.
Replies: 2
Views: 352

Re: 25% to 30% Stocks still recommended for 30 yr retirement.

If you're in retirement and are taking distributions to pay your bills, you can also just sell from whichever asset is higher (I would assume bonds in the current environment) to get you back to within your rebalance bands.
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 519
Views: 48024

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

It's amazing what going through 2008 does to your perspective. Right now, I feel not only calm, but kind of incredulous at the panic. Just for clarity, I'm not talking about the virus; my parents are in their late 70s and live in the NYC area, so I am quite worried about them (though not panicked). ...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Lack of liquidity isn't the problem. The inability of anyone to do anything except sit on the internet and discuss the problem is. Exactly. The stock market is not a problem the fed should be worried about. Hell, even a massive contraction in Q1 and Q2 is not something the fed should worry about, b...
by Independent George
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash
Replies: 93
Views: 15283

Re: Dave Ramsey Reacts to Stock Market Crash

Do people even watch the linked videos before commenting? Or does the name Ramsey just send people into a tizzy? What he said was basically pure Boglehead material with just a little more fire. Also he said oil was down 33%...... not the stock market. Think he mentioned Southwest airlines down 30% ...
by Independent George
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325508

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

1) A $50 Timex is not entirely junk. 2) Find me a cheeseburger that costs ~100x what a basic, but not bottom of the barrel cheeseburger costs ($4-$6 or so). I can see spending $15, maybe, for a "fancy" cheeseburger, but not ~$500. (Yes, they probably exist - funky Japanese beef or whatever, but you...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy
Replies: 64
Views: 4189

Re: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy

Buy-and-hold is a simple investing strategy, but it's not a behaviorally easy one, as times like this readily demonstrate. Many investors have to play Jedi mind tricks on themselves in order to strictly adhere to it (e.g. 'it's only a paper loss', 'I still own the same shares', 'I was happy to buy ...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:21 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 197484

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Here's the way I see it - there are some very real macro effects to the virus (and, more importantly, the attempts to contain it) which will have negative impacts on the global economy in 2020. The supply chains have already been disrupted, and the shock to air travel, conventions, cruises and hotel...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 519
Views: 48024

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

The only thing I'm really questioning about my 90/10 portfolio is whether to stick to 40% international in my stocks. I've been asking that for several years now, and I always stick with it because most of the reasons to overweight US stock comes down to recency bias. There are sound fundamental que...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Is the 'circuit breaker' there to give robo-traders a chance to tweak their algorithms? That's the only real benefit I can see to it. And if it works, that seems pretty telling on the impact of those automatic trades.
by Independent George
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Compared to 2008, mostly what I'm feeling right now is relief. I've spent the last three years waiting for a massive selloff, and now it's happening. The scariest part of the roller coaster isn't when you're plummeting, but the slow, ratcheting climb up to the first peak. Now that there's blood in t...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Colleague is Day Trading
Replies: 43
Views: 4271

Re: Colleague is Day Trading

If he's telling you what he's doing, it's only fair you can tell him what you're doing. Don't try to convince, as that could make him defensive. Maybe you can give him some food for thought by describing your own philosophy in a simple way. I try not to be pushy but will occasionally do this myself...
by Independent George
Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing HSA Strategies
Replies: 65
Views: 3268

Re: Maximizing HSA Strategies

Yes. It's about converting the money now with no loss in benefit, assuming you have valid medical expenses. I'm not confident that the ability to withdrawal funds for expenses that occurred over a decade ago will last. It is going to be a very small group of us that have a boatload of money in an H...
by Independent George
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximizing HSA Strategies
Replies: 65
Views: 3268

Re: Maximizing HSA Strategies

lgs88 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:49 pm All of that receipt-keeping sounds like a pain in the rear. That alone would make the decision for me.
Just scan them into pdf and hold on to it until file formats inevitably change.
by Independent George
Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325508

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

The Citizen Chronomaster line is good pick but these models...I'm assuming the 37.5mm is the size you're leaning towards - the gold emblem skews the dial a bit, making it look cluttered (I think). Doesn't GS make any models in that approximate 37.5mm size anymore? I think they used to but they may ...
by Independent George
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325508

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Any watch I wear I try to be careful about, regardless of price, but should it get nicked..."Well that's life" and soldier on. Since you hold Grand Seiko in high regard...though I know why removed Seiko from their dials, I miss that detail. Fortunately for me, that came later. :wink: I try to be ca...
by Independent George
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325508

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Sorry, but someone who loves watches never really thinks of them as investments. Oh, we know that Rolex and a few other brands hold their value longer (or even appreciate given fortunate circumstance), but my experiences with watch lovers and collectors to a T...never refer to them as investments w...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lamenting time lost and squandered opportunities
Replies: 31
Views: 2930

Re: Lamenting time lost and squandered opportunities

I started "investing" mid-2008 (middle of the crash) via 401k contributions for the 1st time as I started my professional career. I think my very 1st portfolio allocation was like 10% Money Market (was "scared" due to the recent market crash, had no concept of a 40-year time horizon for growth). I ...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325508

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

To answer the question posed by OP, I think Grand Seiko offers some of the best watches in the $3-6k range. Some of their dials are simply stunning and the fit and finish of the watches in person is really incredible for the price point. I tried on several of their watches at a dealer here a few mo...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling first time to Chicago - how many days
Replies: 13
Views: 713

Re: Traveling first time to Chicago - how many days

Hi, I am planning to visit Chicago for the first time with 8-10 year old kids. How many days should I stay in Chicago and what are the key places I can cover. 3-4 days are enough or any other places which are near to Chicago are worth visiting. Any suggestions would be helpful. The Field Museum and...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annoyed at 401k Contributions always happening on peak days
Replies: 29
Views: 2345

Re: Annoyed at 401k Contributions always happening on peak days

Source? I don’t think there is a large skew to up or down days. Hmm. You're right - it's apparently only 53.7% vs 46.3% over the last 50 years, but far higher in recent years. I know I've read that statistic in various places (I don't have any bookmarks, so I can't be specific), but that was appare...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annoyed at 401k Contributions always happening on peak days
Replies: 29
Views: 2345

Re: Annoyed at 401k Contributions always happening on peak days

Perhaps I am being OCD but I swear it seems like my 401k contributions the past year (bi-weekly, next one is 3/5) always happen on a peak day and never during a down period or trough. Go look for yourself and see. The market will probably soar another 5% tomorrow. I feel like I would be 5% higher i...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet on renewable energy
Replies: 94
Views: 7091

Re: Warren Buffet on renewable energy

Why is no one here talking about nuclear? Today’s generators (4th gen) are safe and produce Practically no waste and more importantly no nuclear waste. My limited understanding is that they can even utilize nuclear waste from older nuclear reactors. Once we implement these, we can illuminate the di...
by Independent George
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325508

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

I have been buying more microbrand watches revently. Zelos in particular has really captured my attention. The quality for the price point is fantastic. Most of their watches are in the $400-1000 range. They have a big following online and many models sell out very quickly. I was able to buy this v...
by Independent George
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777721

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Exactly what will a fed rate cut do to alleviate the supply problems from factory shutdowns in China?
by Independent George
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why so much buying/rebalancing going on?
Replies: 100
Views: 6420

Re: Why so much buying/rebalancing going on?

I just made this observation in another thread - my Roth IRA just went from 10.4% bonds on January 2, to 10.9% bonds on Feb 29.

Stocks are on sale. Whoop-di-freaking-do.