Search found 878 matches

by Independent George
Tue May 26, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747267

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Thanks, I held on through the March and April [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] (actually purchased some more equities near the bottom) but rather sold on the way up about a week or two ago. Thought S&P @ 2950 was too good to be true when it hit last week to derisk but it appears the ...
by Independent George
Tue May 26, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747267

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Man, this is one of those times when I'm glad all of my investments are automatic. I thought the March drop was crazy (the world was not ending), and I think this rally is even crazier (lots of folks are still out of work, and businesses are in debt to their eyeballs). Fortunately, I'm still 10-20 y...
by Independent George
Wed May 20, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747267

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

This market feels very irrational right now. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is where to deploy new capital. Bonds look expensive with yields so low. Stock valuations are reaching for their highs before the March crash. I'm thinking about deploying new cash to pay my mortgage down faster. An...
by Independent George
Wed May 20, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At 30, what are some key financial milestones I should have hit?
Replies: 51
Views: 4582

Re: At 30, what are some key financial milestones I should have hit?

It's different for everybody, and not just in terms of income. Are you married? Do you have children? What's your cost of living? Are you a doctor whose residency just ended? You can't expect a one-size-fits-all timeline for all situations. Don't measure yourself against someone else's idea of progr...
by Independent George
Fri May 15, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8995

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

.... and for the people who work in certain companies that must have their BROKERAGE activity monitored (mutual fund accounts don't usually need that level of monitoring).... Hard luck and take a capital gain because Vanguard flips to brokerage accounts? Does Vanguard pay the tax? It's easy to thro...
by Independent George
Tue May 12, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penalty-free withdrawals from 401(k)s
Replies: 39
Views: 3720

Re: Penalty-free withdrawals from 401(k)s

SpartanFan wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:43 am Penalty free but still must pay taxes on the dist. :(
Drat. I was actually just about to ask - if it wasn't taxed, it could actually make sense to withdraw the 100k and immediately park it into FZROX until retirement, and then get taxed at cap gains rates instead of income tax rates.
by Independent George
Fri May 08, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?
Replies: 132
Views: 8906

Re: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?

It's funny, but what people call "prepping", I call normal shopping.

It's not a matter of preparing for disruptions, but of stocking up when things are on sale. I was rather surprised to learn that most people don't already do do this.
by Independent George
Thu May 07, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: IE, Chrome or Firefox, that is the question.
Replies: 53
Views: 3289

Re: IE, Chrome or Firefox, that is the question.

Try the Brave browser.

It's based on Chrome, but it doesn't sell your data to Alphabet.
by Independent George
Wed May 06, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2020 travel plans
Replies: 95
Views: 4688

Re: 2020 travel plans

One of my cousins is (for now) getting married in Hawaii in December. As long as the wedding is on and planes are flying, I plan on attending. My father turns 80 in August. My flight is booked, but the only way I will actually take it is if I can get tested right before the trip and confirm I am not...
by Independent George
Tue May 05, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there anything more environmentally friendly than Drano for unclogging a drain?
Replies: 80
Views: 5067

Re: Is there anything more environmentally friendly than Drano for unclogging a drain?

Is there anything more environmentally friendly than Drano for unclogging a drain? This is a shower drain and I can see there is a buildup of old hair and soap scum in it. If you don't mind the investment, buy a kinetic water ram . It uses compressed air to send a shockwave down the pipe to clear b...
by Independent George
Tue May 05, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11597

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

It's also not just a question of performance, but also of risk. Within these forums, we have people who at 100% stock, others at 50/50. Over the long haul, we expect the former to outperform the latter with more volatility - and yet both have entirely acceptable portfolios based on their willingness...
by Independent George
Tue May 05, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: delete
Replies: 39
Views: 7363

Re: If I put 1 million in Wellesley and lived on 35k a year how long would the money last if I took dividends and capita

Impossible to foretell in the future, as we have no idea what inflation, interest, and dividends will be going forward. I own Wellesley because I wanted a somewhat-risky place to park my capital in the medium-term, not because I want or need to live off of distributions. Total return and volatility ...
by Independent George
Tue May 05, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market is 100% passive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2142

Re: What if the market is 100% passive?

This question has been asked here many times. The consensus reply seems to be that it's not something to worry about. I'd amend that. I think it's something to worry about eventually , but not quite yet. In theory, as more and more of the market becomes passive, inefficiency should increase to the ...
by Independent George
Tue May 05, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11597

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

I keep trying to convince my friends about the value of low-cost index investing. For the most part they are not really financially savvy and rarely even invest at all. But what little investing they have done the past 3 months has outperformed the market. This from people who know almost nothing a...
by Independent George
Tue May 05, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747267

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm in an odd place mentally. I'm as optimistic as ever in the medium and long term, but think we are in for more pain in the short term as the world gradually divests from its second-largest economy. I thought the March panic was overwrought, but am now finding this rally equally ridiculous. I gues...
by Independent George
Mon May 04, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 508
Views: 65946

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

DarnToughSocks. They have socks high as $35. I stick with $22-$28. I'm sorry for bringing up a point from six months ago, but... I can't resist bragging. I, too, am a fan of DarnTough socks, but my last purchase was made at $16.46 each when Backcountry had them on sale 25% off, which miraculously c...
by Independent George
Fri May 01, 2020 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What have you baked recently?
Replies: 294
Views: 34912

Re: What have you baked recently?

Here in Dallas I have not been able to find flour nor yeast and have been trying to get it for 4 weeks now. I am depending on muffin mixes and frozen cookie dough. Can I trade anyone toilet paper for some unbleached flour!!!!!????? If there are any bakeries open near you, try asking if you can buy ...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: pay off mortgage vs. invest in the time of covid
Replies: 19
Views: 2765

Re: pay off mortgage vs. invest in the time of covid

Based on the info you stated, I see no downside to either paying off your mortgage or continuing to invest. The important thing is you have $550k of liquid assets - that buys you a lot of freedom to move your money as you wish. If it were me, I'd pay off the mortgage. I have 15 years left on mine, a...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What have you baked recently?
Replies: 294
Views: 34912

Re: What have you baked recently?

My sourdough starter is on day 10, and it looks like I'm finally ready for my first loaf. I'd been using the starter discards to make pancakes, and they've been great, but I'm really looking forward to finally make my first sourdough loaf. I've been making baguettes for the last two years, so I'm a ...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777200

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:30 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:06 pm
The best thing about this thread to look back at the history of very smart people (and a lot of people who THINK they are smart) making predictions, and most being wrong.
Edited your comment. :happy
Hey, I resemble that.
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting a job after two weeks: relocation expenses
Replies: 196
Views: 18092

Re: Quitting a job after two weeks: relocation expenses

That data is correct (minus the net worth, which has taken a sad haircut). The new offer is for 1.2M a year, of course 80% of it being annual performance bonus that I’ll never get because there’s no way I’ll survive here. I asked them multiple times to screen me very well, and on my explicit reques...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 13234

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I guess we'll see. I don't share your conviction the recent lows will be 'absolutely obliterated'. I do believe a vaccine is either in the making or will be soon - within 12 months. I'm basically a 'buy and hold' person - so, in either case (acceleration or obliteration), I'll be along for the ride...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting a job after two weeks: relocation expenses
Replies: 196
Views: 18092

Re: Quitting a job after two weeks: relocation expenses

Was there anything on Google, Glassdoor, during the interview or something else that, in hindsight, your husband or you saw that was a red flag for this so the rest of us don't fall into this trap? In hindsight, the fact that they've been attempting to fill this position for a long time and had to ...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 9215

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

Looking at international it will need to outperform US by a large amount over the next decade to make up for this underperformance. I am not convinced if that is possible. This is true - but the relevant question that Rick Ferri asks is, how will it perform if I cash out international now (followin...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747267

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Mactheriverrat wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:38 pm4
I didn't say that. What I said that those who know will know.
But will you know what you know when you know you know, and will you know who knows what you know, you know?
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 9215

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

Same here. I’ve been 50% international since I started investing, but once I had a decent amount of money it really started to underperform. I'm at 40% international. What's been difficult for me isn't that it's been lagging (which you'd expect), but that it's been outright stagnant (actually, nega...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 9215

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

Replace 'factors' with 'international', and you're describing my portfolio.

I will be sticking with it as I have for this past decade, but I'd be lying if I said it didn't bother me at times.
by Independent George
Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 124
Views: 11338

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

I wrote almost the exact same thing to a friend about 10 days ago. Part of it for me is having arguably crossed the FI threshold, I believe. But also this is my 4th significant downturn counting 2000-2002 as two. Fifth if you count my token involvement in Oct '87. So my callouses are pretty thick n...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 124
Views: 11338

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Hey, it might still drop again! Actually, it's almost certain to - I just have no idea when, or by how much... Anyway, I rebalanced on the way down, and am almost at the point where I rebalance on the way up. My 401k is set to max out for the year, and rebalances automatically within a Vanguard TDF....
by Independent George
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1928
Views: 469959

Re: Share your net worth progression

Just like when I first started working out seriously, I really wish I'd started tracking my progress sooner. I was at $481k in December 2019, crossed the $500k barrier in February, fell to a low of around $390k, and am now currently right around $450k. Funny enough, my own post in February was rathe...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst investing emotion and how does one avoid it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1564

Re: What is the worst investing emotion and how does one avoid it?

telemark wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 pm Overconfidence. I am absolutely certain of this.
Everyone seems to have this problem except for me.
by Independent George
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777200

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So, now that the S&P has zoomed past the September 2019 mark (2,900), I guess I'm back to being a short-term pessimist. Back when we were down -35%, I was incredulous because despite the clear contraction in the near term, I was skeptical that we'd see any persistent effects in the long run. Now I'm...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9369
Views: 747267

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I find the short-term dips and rallies interesting even if I don't act on them except to rebalance. It seems like a contradiction, but I'm a permabear who nevertheless maintains a 90/10 portfolio because I'm an optimist on the long-term despite being convinced we're constantly headed for disaster in...
by Independent George
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325489

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

This is my first post in this novel thread, and think the amount you pay over maybe, $500, is just for added bling. As in, a $1,000 watch has the same guts as a $10,000 watch and it's the diamonds and precious metals added to the outside are what make the price go up. This is a bit of a misundersta...
by Independent George
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the index funds save us?
Replies: 23
Views: 2543

Re: Will the index funds save us?

I would also add that if any pharmaceutical company were to develop a magic pill, I think it would be a good thing if they made a fortune from it. They will have earned it, and it ensures that they'll make a good faith effort into developing drugs for the next pandemic. At the very least, if the US ...
by Independent George
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325489

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

I get as much enjoyment from researching watches as I do from buying or wearing one. I'm 80% sure my next watch will be a Citizen Chronomaster, but I don't plan on buying one until I hit my next financial milestone (which looked like it would be 2021 last year, but now has been pushed back by the be...
by Independent George
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey against index funds?
Replies: 93
Views: 10776

Re: Dave Ramsey against index funds?

It is the equivalent of a personal trainer getting a new client that weighs 350 pounds and trying to get them to live a healthier life with diet, exercise and lifestyle change. They start with baby steps that the client can actually achieve. Then the marathon runners and life long body builders com...
by Independent George
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey against index funds?
Replies: 93
Views: 10776

Re: Dave Ramsey against index funds?

Hi all- I have been listening to Dave Ramsey lately and noticed there is a theme: he is against investing in index funds and believes you can find funds that beat the market. Well I’m a relatively young investor (30 years old) and predominantly invest in low cost index funds based on all the knowle...
by Independent George
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 325489

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

@ brudude, Unless you're financially independent with 7 figures then luxury goods are a waste of money. I'm from Missouri on your claim that you can get gucci looking watches for 20 bucks. Apple watches to me are cheap looking and feeling junk for 200 dollars. so i would like to see you pst some 20...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4979

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

Ben Felix has a short video discussing them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvUyuo53kQQ I know very little about them beyond what he describes there, but my feeling is (1) Renaissance genuinely figured something out that others haven't, and (2) what they do is very unlikely to be easily replicable ...
by Independent George
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive
Replies: 75
Views: 4266

Re: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive

The better question is SSD vs. NVMe drives. SSD's are extremely cost effective now and so far beyond HDDs now, that I'm surprised that they're still selling in volume except maybe for those who need very high capacities (3-4TB or more) NVMe drives are the latest thing and even faster, but are not q...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your AA Changed recently?
Replies: 12
Views: 684

Re: Has your AA Changed recently?

I rebalanced my Roth IRA in early March, and haven't touched it since. We haven't yet gotten to the point where I need to rebalance it back the other way.
by Independent George
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Immature Investor and Lessons Learned
Replies: 28
Views: 3212

Re: Immature Investor and Lessons Learned

The funny thing is, you could also take the lesson that you should DCA a large amount instead of lump sum. In your situation, yes, the least painful thing to do would have been buy as soon as the money cleared - but when someone receives an unexpected windfall, I still think the best course of actio...
by Independent George
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Indexing fail?
Replies: 33
Views: 3265

Re: Indexing fail?

Not performed poorly, but expected to totally collapse and disappear. Devil's advocate. Because nobody is ever going to fly on an airplane or a ship ever again? When airlines starts selling their assets for scrap because the aluminum is more valuable than the engines, I'll consider it a possibility...
by Independent George
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?
Replies: 65
Views: 5044

Re: Is walking enough cardio exercise if I also lift weights?

Try rucking - throw on a backpack and fill it with 10-20 lbs of weight and walk your normal route at your normal pace; you'll burn more calories and improve your posture without any extra wear & tear on your knees. A twelve-pack of your beverage of choice is conveniently right around 10 lbs. 1-2 mil...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20319
Views: 2777200

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anyone "rebalance" the way I do? Default 80/20. Then at every 10% down I go 5% more into stocks. At -10% I'm at 85/15 At -20% I'm at 90/10 At -30% I'm at 95/5 At -40% I'm at 100/0 I then ride the wave back up to the all time high, when I go back to 80/20. It's written in my IPS. This morning I...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21854

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Everyone needs to do what is best for them, it's your money so take whatever actions you feel are right, and don't regret them. But much of the commentary here reminds me of The Princess Bride and the scene with Westley and Vizzini: The virus is much worse than the market is pricing in, so surely w...
by Independent George
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16933

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

dbadalam wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:25 amI know I can't change a persons belief because it based on bigotry, faith and emotion. I learned that growing up in the states. So we are going to continue to disagree.
The fact that you immediately call him a bigot ensures is what ensures you will not changes anyone belief.