Search found 265 matches

by jadd806
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 3051

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

So the reason we should buy stocks is because they have done well in the past? Throughout all of recorded human history, the rate of return on capital has been impressive. To bet against a globally-diversified portfolio of equities is to bet against mankind's continued innovation. You seem to be su...
by jadd806
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 3051

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

Financial assets today are quite expensive and will likely not earn much in the coming decades. A 60/40 portfolio will probably earn less than 2% real per year. Maybe we should take nicer vacations and go out more. 10 years ago, the S&P 500 was priced at 1557. 20 years ago, it was priced at 965. 30...
by jadd806
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)
Replies: 29
Views: 3051

Re: Time Value of Money (Young Investors)

This is a nice illustration of an important point, but I think you also have to consider the limitations. What 18 year old has 5k to invest every year? What money they do have may have more immediate purposes than stocks (education, rent, car, etc.). Agreed. I had a decent emergency fund establishe...
by jadd806
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 45% Down Payment vs. High Mortgage (Massachuestts)
Replies: 17
Views: 2245

Re: 45% Down Payment vs. High Mortgage (Massachuestts)

More like Harverhill (I'd take it, but preferably further south). I work near Boston (Woburn). The general radius I'm looking at is Lowell / Andover / Wilmington / Reading / Woburn / Burlington / Peabody and then southern NH. $200k for a house in this area is not realistic, as the other commenters ...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you foresee a drop in housing prices in the next 5 years
Replies: 53
Views: 6981

Re: Do you foresee a drop in housing prices in the next 5 years

I expect housing prices to be local but in aggregate, at the national level, I expect slow and steady gains for the foreseeable future. The millennial generation is huge and more and more of them will eventually want to own property. I am in my mid-20's. Solidly a millennial. All of my peers who I ...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much should an 18 year old keep in bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2192

Re: How much should an 18 year old keep in bonds?

Zero. The cash you use to buy equities is a bond-like instrument at the beginning. That is, your weekly/monthly/yearly contributions have way ,ore buying power than if you rebalance. Go all-in for the next 15-20 years and then start thinking about bonds. You could use the same line of thinking to j...
by jadd806
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 9328

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

I hold my entire bond allocation in the TSP's G Fund. I think it's incredibly unlikely that cash outperforms my G Fund. I'm no economist, but I imagine that it would probably take a deflationary environment for that to happen. I feel the same level of comfort with 25% of my portfolio in the G Fund a...
by jadd806
Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: a $2000 pizza
Replies: 19
Views: 2419

Re: a $2000 pizza

F150HD wrote:
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:01 am
...would you splurge on it?
We consider a $20 pizza to be expensive (in relative terms).

That said, I'd probably pay... I dunno, maybe $50 to try a slice of this luxury pizza?
by jadd806
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I bought a car without thinking too much about value
Replies: 45
Views: 5080

Re: I bought a car without thinking too much about value

Warranty was originally 1800 I was hesitant and then they offered it for 1400 It's a manufacturer warranty and not a dealer warranty Got the same spiel when I bought my Prius. The guy started at $2000. When I wouldn't budge, he came down to $1600. He used all sorts of scare tactics to try and tell ...
by jadd806
Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: First simple portfolio [Italy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1301

Re: First simple portfolio [Italy]

Emerging markets represent about 10% of world market capitalization. See here for the index that your emerging markets fund tracks: https://www.msci.com/emerging-markets You're heavily "tilting" your portfolio towards emerging markets by holding 3.5x more of them than their representative weight in ...
by jadd806
Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Rebalancing
Replies: 8
Views: 746

Re: Portfolio Rebalancing

And I've read studies were not rebalancing at all pays off, because of momentum. So you can find a study supporting any position, if you look hard enough. Yeah, I pointed that out in the comment you quoted. It was addressed in the Vanguard study that I linked. :) I view rebalancing as a way to cont...
by jadd806
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: First simple portfolio [Italy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1301

Re: First simple portfolio [Italy]

Was it your intention to significantly overweight emerging markets in your portfolio?

35% of your equities are allocated to emerging markets, compared to roughly 10% for the total world stock market.
by jadd806
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Rebalancing
Replies: 8
Views: 746

Re: Portfolio Rebalancing

I'm a newbie and my portfolio is still in the 5 figure range. I've just been rebalancing whenever I "feel" like it. It probably comes out to roughly a quarterly schedule. I don't recall my AA ever being off much more than 2% (keep in mind I've only been investing for 2 years, so I have never been ex...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 18917

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

I learned the power of saving from my grandfather. I learned what not to do from watching the financial trainwreck that is my own father. My grandfather and I joke about how "the money gene" must have skipped a generation. I LBYM because the alternative is too stressful. To me, money is the ultimate...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?
Replies: 51
Views: 6175

Re: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?

Not me, but I see a lot of posts where people are. I think they (at least the younger ones) should be told that 80/20 and doing more saving, even if it means going without, is a far better way to reach their goal. If the goal is not worth doing without to achieve, is it really that important of a g...
by jadd806
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20% Down Payment Sub-optimal?
Replies: 55
Views: 6294

Re: 20% Down Payment Sub-optimal?

The OP doesn’t consider that by not saving up 20% you haven’t demonstrating your ability to live below your means which is usually a prerequisite for being able to afford a home. ... If you can’t save a measly $50k then maybe you can’t afford a $250k house? What if they LBYM but their money is stas...
by jadd806
Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20% Down Payment Sub-optimal?
Replies: 55
Views: 6294

Re: 20% Down Payment Sub-optimal?

The OP doesn’t consider that by not saving up 20% you haven’t demonstrating your ability to live below your means which is usually a prerequisite for being able to afford a home. ... If you can’t save a measly $50k then maybe you can’t afford a $250k house? What if they LBYM but their money is stas...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping question....Applebees
Replies: 87
Views: 9572

Re: Tipping question....Applebees

CyclingDuo wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:15 am
Sales tax aside....

Remember the days when tipping 10% was standard?
Remember the days when tipping 15% was standard?
Remember the days when tipping 20% was standard?
I've wondered this many times myself. In a decade or two, will tipping 50% be standard?
by jadd806
Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping question....Applebees
Replies: 87
Views: 9572

Re: Tipping question....Applebees

It is a total non-issue. The customer is perfectly capable of deciding how much to TIP. I don't know about normal, but it is increasingly common, evidently. Well, most people can't manage basic math, let alone math involving percentages. Can't help but chuckle every time I see someone pull out the ...
by jadd806
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Negotiating for a new car purchase
Replies: 86
Views: 10665

Re: Negotiating for a new car purchase

I was satisfied with a very high volume dealership in my area that advertises "right price, lowest price." No haggling. The price marked on the car is what they'll sell it for, take it or leave it. They were cheaper than about 95% of dealerships. The few that were cheaper were far enough away that i...
by jadd806
Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Magic of Savings Rate
Replies: 97
Views: 13257

Re: The Magic of Savings Rate

+1 Glad I'm not the only one to have noticed this. Discussions like this and the low income Bogleheads thread really display the inherent differences between the Boglehead community and the MMM community views. It seems Bogleheads wish to save enough to be FI (15%), by lowering investment expenses,...
by jadd806
Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on "entertainment"?
Replies: 50
Views: 4704

Re: How much do you spend on "entertainment"?

$200/month on restaurants $100/month on video games/PC parts $100/month on craft beer $20/month donation to Soma FM (listener-supported, commercial-free radio streaming) We also hike a lot but that's essentially free. I don't feel bad about spending as much as I do on things that I like because we h...
by jadd806
Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 24F Looking to start an aggressive portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 3327

Re: 24F Looking to start an aggressive portfolio

EDIT: I also have 20% of my base pay going towards TSP. 80% C fund, 20% S fund. This isn't very diversified. I am also 24, and here is what I have going on in my TSP: 15% G Fund 43% C Fund 28% I Fund 14% S Fund I picked an asset allocation that I am going to be comfortable with for the long haul (p...
by jadd806
Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 233
Views: 32157

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

Hey, that's me! 24 years old, $40k net worth. Am I rich? Certainly not. But I probably will be someday if I continue to live below my means and steadily invest in my 3 fund portfolio. I have gotten my girlfriend on the same page and she is closing in fast on a positive net worth. Not too bad for bot...
by jadd806
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Card Points Can (and Should?) Pay Off Card
Replies: 14
Views: 1148

Re: Amazon Prime Card Points Can (and Should?) Pay Off Card

That month I apply the "$5" in rewards on my credit card statement rather than on a product. For that month - my statement is only $495 versus $500 so I am only getting rewards on $495 versus the full $500. That's not how this card works. A statement credit does not take points away from you. You c...
by jadd806
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Card Points Can (and Should?) Pay Off Card
Replies: 14
Views: 1148

Re: Amazon Prime Card Points Can (and Should?) Pay Off Card

Your logic is correct. I came to the same conclusion after I received my card, that taking the cash back towards the statement balance is always preferable. I do like this credit card. I used to have several cards. I used this one for 5% back on Amazon. I had a USAA AmEx for 5% back on gasoline. I h...
by jadd806
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: After Irma in need of............
Replies: 25
Views: 2805

Re: After Irma in need of............

Using a hand crank/solar device sounds wonderful in theory, but it relies on the rechargeable battery inside being viable. If you stick your device into a closet for several years, it might not work when you need it. You might instead want something that uses regular alkaline batteries, and just be...
by jadd806
Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 44923

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Attack of the 50 foot blockchain is a good read - https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/ The author goes through real-life blockchain projects, and the most common uses of bitcoin, etc. The take-away is that 1) "Bitcoin and blockchains are not a technology story, but a psychology story." and 2) Almo...
by jadd806
Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 44923

Re: What is Bitcoin?

How do we know which of the cryptocurrencies will be dominant in the future? Wish there was an etf index fund encompassing cryptocurrencies by capitalization. How about GBTC? It isn't that hard to create your own. Apps like "Blockfolio" would allow you to easily track your holdings. The problem com...
by jadd806
Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 44923

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Of course, these problems could be mitigated (at least temporarily) with hard forks. There are potentially serious issues if difficulty is decreased (less security in the blockchain, among others). I'm not sure how stable a currency can be if it keeps getting replaced for complex technical reasons....
by jadd806
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?
Replies: 123
Views: 10633

Re: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?

For example, offer to pitch in another $200 if he assembles the system entirely from used parts he acquires off Craigslist ($250 if he negotiated a lower price on all the parts). I wouldn't advise purchasing used PC parts. Especially not a used GPU. A lot of used GPUs on the market have been used f...
by jadd806
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?
Replies: 123
Views: 10633

Re: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?

Also to add Overwatch is a good non-violent combat game, but it does not need anywhere near $1500 worth of equipment to play Well, you could play it at 5 frames per second on a $300 laptop. You wouldn't have a fun time, though. The more you spend, the better everything will feel. Like anything else...
by jadd806
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?
Replies: 123
Views: 10633

Re: Would you let your teenager spend all his savings on a gaming computer?

...There are few if any wholesome/family friendly games. It became an issue of having to keep it on "mute" even in a WW1 combat game, about every other word your fellow soldiers shout in game is foul language. The most popular games, and the best reviewed games, are fraught with extreme gore, viole...
by jadd806
Sat Jan 16, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fortune: Stock Tumble: If You're Reading This It Is Not Too Late
Replies: 23
Views: 4731

Re: Fortune: Stock Tumble: If You're Reading This It Is Not Too Late

I'm not sure what sort of straw man he's setting up here, but the Bogleheads philosophy says Never bear too much or too little risk . It doesn't say you should overeat a high equity allocation like a contender in a hot-dog-eating championship and then just tough it out and keep it down no matter ho...
by jadd806
Fri Jan 15, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving for the future vs you only live once
Replies: 72
Views: 12565

Re: Saving for the future vs you only live once

What I don't understand are the retired people who hoard money. That is, they derive the most happiness (or utility) by seeing their net worth increase. This seems odd to me. What is the point of saving if not to eventually spend it (I view gifting as another form of spending) For at least some peo...
by jadd806
Sun Dec 27, 2015 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric utility being switched on me . . .
Replies: 15
Views: 1903

Re: Electric utility being switched on me . . .

Deleted to remove identifying information.
by jadd806
Mon Nov 16, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a wedding ring
Replies: 39
Views: 5112

Re: Buying a wedding ring

Some girls really want that blue box and able to say that it's a Tiffany's ring. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] No matter which way you view it, buying a diamond is getting fleeced. A friend of a friend recently dropped $30k on a ring for his girl. When I saw her, I asked if that was her ri...
by jadd806
Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a Log Home
Replies: 25
Views: 3640

Re: Buying a Log Home

This is something I am interested in as well. We love the feel of a log home and would like to use one as a primary residence. We are not ready to buy yet, so I haven't done too much of my own research. I have seen many kits and pre-fab cabins available for very reasonable prices, although I am unsu...
by jadd806
Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone know of a quality electric razor?
Replies: 18
Views: 2530

Re: Anyone know of a quality electric razor?

I've tried several electric razors. From the simple foil type to higher-end Norelco models. All were very disappointing. If I shaved every day, it irritated my skin to the point of me having a pinkish rash for a couple hours (more of a problem with the Norelco razors). If I shaved weekly, they felt ...
by jadd806
Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Changes Announced, kinda sorta
Replies: 10
Views: 1729

Re: TSP Changes Announced, kinda sorta

If true, all good changes. I've found more than a few people in real life who started TSP contributions and then NEVER LOGGED IN to set an allocation. Getting a better default then the G Fund can only help. I would have also liked to see a revision to the I Fund's composition to make it closer to a...
by jadd806
Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Verizon Fios contract up soon...What to do?
Replies: 13
Views: 1955

Re: Verizon Fios contract up soon...What to do?

Every year my "promotional rate" ends, and they try to bump up my monthly bill by $10-$20. I just call and say "I'm not paying that," and funnily enough there always seems to be another promotional offer available to keep my bill where it was. Quick question: Do you do this even if you are in a 2-y...
by jadd806
Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Verizon Fios contract up soon...What to do?
Replies: 13
Views: 1955

Re: Verizon Fios contract up soon...What to do?

I pay $50 per month for 50/50 speeds plus basic cable and free HBO with Verizon Fios. The only reason I have the cable is because the Internet is cheaper when you bundle them together. The reason the package deals are better is so they can claim they have more subscribers per service... i.e. people ...
by jadd806
Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Scary Assumptions Investors Are Making"
Replies: 15
Views: 2974

Re: "5 Scary Assumptions Investors Are Making"

So what's the idea about TIPS? I was thinking they're not worth having until you retire, or are a negative drag while you are still accumulating. Not sure what to do, as stocks have higher dividends and I'd assume also have some inflation protection built in. And while we're still working theoretic...
by jadd806
Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Is Stock Picking Back?
Replies: 41
Views: 5224

Re: CNBC: Is Stock Picking Back?

The only active fund I hold is Vanguard Dividend Growth, run by Kilbride. Is that stock picking? It works for me. Certainly. Whether you're making the right choice or not depends if you think that these so-called "dividend growth stocks" will outperform a total stock market index on either a risk-a...
by jadd806
Sun Nov 01, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: insidious facebook, mapping my monitor or NIC/IMEI?
Replies: 45
Views: 6543

Re: insidious facebook, mapping my monitor or NIC/IMEI?

What I think is interesting is that people agree to the fully disclosed terms of use, complain about it, but still continue to use it. This stuff isn't 'free', you're not Facebook's customer, your time/attention and information is the product they sell. Facebook now comes pre-installed on many phon...
by jadd806
Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: insidious facebook, mapping my monitor or NIC/IMEI?
Replies: 45
Views: 6543

Re: insidious facebook, mapping my monitor or NIC/IMEI?

What's worse is that Facebook uses your phone's microphone to listen to your conversations (even when the phone is on standyby in your pocket) in order to target advertisements towards you. I first discovered this when we saw a Maserati on the road and I started talking to my friend in the car about...
by jadd806
Fri Oct 30, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing 2-year treasuries using Martingale-style bets
Replies: 87
Views: 6954

Re: Market timing 2-year treasuries using Martingale-style bets

I guess that I am still not following. I completely agree that I am discussing a form of market timing. It is in the thread title. And I agree that rebalancing is a form of market timing. And they behave in a similar way-- when one asset drops, buy more, then sell when it grows above a certain leve...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing 2-year treasuries using Martingale-style bets
Replies: 87
Views: 6954

Re: Market timing 2-year treasuries using Martingale-style bets

So what happened to your original plan of using leverage with a balanced portfolio? Already bored with it? I am extremely happy with the leveraged balanced portfolio. And boring is often good for investing. This idea/strategy occurred while I was looking at 2-year treasury futures and their risk pr...
by jadd806
Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car advice for tall person
Replies: 29
Views: 4087

Re: Car advice for tall person

Sometimes the "mid-size" cars actually have less headroom than the next size smaller sedans. I found that the Ford Focus, for example, had better interior room than the Ford Fusion. It's in the mid size range where sometimes style seems to start taking higher priority over usability. As a tall guy,...
by jadd806
Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Incredible Shrinking Value Premium?
Replies: 32
Views: 4895

Re: The Incredible Shrinking Value Premium?

Here's the full chart. http://i59.tinypic.com/15x7hhs.png Just looking at the chart, it's hard to resist the idea that the value premium started a general decline after the 1993 publication of the Fama and French common returns paper. That general decline was interrupted by the inflating and deflat...