Search found 255 matches

by minimalistmarc
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496881

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:48 pm
The question is: Are you ready for a -40% drop, interest back to 7~8% normal level, unemployment rate up to 10% , inflation rate +5~6%?
Sure, I'm ready for any hypothetical situation you want to imagine.
by minimalistmarc
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 13445

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

I could be totally off base here, but I also think that there are a lot of people that think that the market is overvalued and that we are in another bubble, and perhaps with the generally somber and muted excitement of the bull market (due to the social and political uncertainties, drama and divis...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496881

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

While a 10% drop in the markets is called a correction.... It isn't a real correction until the CASH IS KING and BUY GOLD crowd start coming out of the woodwork! I think we are here folks. It will also be a noteworthy period when the "What are you up YTD?" and "FIRE" crowd starts to chatter with ne...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Mar 31, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age is the best to give a child control of an inheritance?
Replies: 192
Views: 13637

Re: What age is the best to give a child control of an inheritance?

Our kids are 0 and 3 and we did our wills recently. Intially we decided on 25 but then change it to 21.

My thinking was to teach my kids well about money and if I die and leave them a large inheritance and they blow it then so be it.

I don't like trying to control people.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hotel Fund Investment Oppurtunity
Replies: 9
Views: 858

Re: Hotel Fund Investment Oppurtunity

Sounds highly complex and unattractive to me.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496881

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I hope the market stop here for another 10 years until I load them up. Would you really keep investing regularly if the market had a 0% return over 5 years, let alone 10? I definitely would. Much better than the market going up the whole time making me have to buy more expensive shares. I will buy ...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496881

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It still doesn't appear that we're in the early stages of a recession yet (e.g. unemployment rate is below its 1 year moving average, PMI is still well above 50), so this leads me to think that this current move will be a short-lived one. However, I'm now wishing that my 401k to IRA rollover had ta...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Index investing vs Real Estate/P2P/websites, etc.. How much is time worth?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Re: Index investing vs Real Estate/P2P/websites, etc.. How much is time worth?

U.K. investor. My advice is to diversify into other assets if there is an extremely tax efficient reason to do so. For example, my wife is a non earner so I invest in P2P through her as she gets 17.5k a year tax free whereas I would have to pay 45% tax. That being said I am now at a point where all ...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time/money trade-offs with work and life balance
Replies: 46
Views: 4251

Re: Time/money trade-offs with work and life balance

In UK the decision is easy.

If you earn greater than 100k up to 122k you are taxed at 60% so the work has to be extremely easy/satisfying to think about doing it.
by minimalistmarc
Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed income (european investor)
Replies: 3
Views: 327

Re: Fixed income (european investor)

FTSE do an all world index that does include emerging markets. 20% emerging markets is overweight I think they are closer to 10%
by minimalistmarc
Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs says...
Replies: 13
Views: 2052

Re: Goldman Sachs says...

May and if, they never commit to anything on wallstreet
by minimalistmarc
Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rant about Savings Rate
Replies: 25
Views: 2391

Re: Rant about Savings Rate

I can’t calculate mine anymore as passive income and earned income all flow to the same joint account and get reinvested. Passive income is almost equal to my take home pay so I lose track. I’ve become pretty slack and can’t even be bothered calculating my networth except maybe once a year (used to ...
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your cash position
Replies: 105
Views: 11529

Re: What's your cash position

Almost none, usually less than 1% of my net worth. This thread is pretty pointless though. If you have cash are you: 1) Saving it for a short term goal e.g. buying a property within 5 years 2) using it as emergency savings 3) keeping it for market timing purposes I am 100% equities although I admit ...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What has been your most important skill in achieving financial independence?
Replies: 164
Views: 12626

Re: What has been your most important skill in achieving financial independence?

It is 95% luck, 5% skill. We are all very fortunate people, and it is a mistake to think we got here because we “deserve” it. Born in most over world locations with the same heart/mind/soul/body it wouldn’t happen. Never think you are special. I agree that luck plays an important role. I strongly d...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]
Replies: 26
Views: 1931

Re: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]

Avoid accumulating funds/ETFs in taxable accounts as tax calculation is a nightmare when calculating the dividends.
by minimalistmarc
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]
Replies: 26
Views: 1931

Re: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]

Have you considered how you will feel if hedging goes against you and the pound appreciates significantly?

I would say the chance of that happening is 50% and you will be paying much higher costs for the privilege
by minimalistmarc
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What has been your most important skill in achieving financial independence?
Replies: 164
Views: 12626

Re: What has been your most important skill in achieving financial independence?

It is 95% luck, 5% skill.

We are all very fortunate people, and it is a mistake to think we got here because we “deserve” it.

Born in most over world locations with the same heart/mind/soul/body it wouldn’t happen.

Never think you are special.
by minimalistmarc
Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8782

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

but now I have to buy everything with devalued currency so it balances out, although my timing was quite fortunate because I had a large lump sum which was invested just prior to Brexit.

Trying to market time currency markets is even more futile than trying to time the stock market
by minimalistmarc
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8782

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

1) What percentage of equities should a non-US investor invest in the US? Why? Should it be a part of an international bucket? Why/Why not? As a Eurozone investor I have about 15% invested in the US (~10% in the S&P500 and ~10% in a world small/mid cap value ETF, half of which (thus 5%) is in the U...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 11876

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

I’m okay with 4% but would prefer the long drawn out crash then eventual recovery to get there
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 13378

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

I learned not to give my father in law advice.

After years of sitting in 100% cash he asked me for help.

We are drip feeding aiming for around 50:50

I thought he had a calm head but at 20% equities this minor dip has him losing sleep already!
by minimalistmarc
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 44500

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

michaeljc70 wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:34 pm
Calais wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:23 pm
I imagine that around at PE/10 of 20 I'd resume my normal equity allocation, but I'm not totally sure.
So at least another 30% drop from these levels. I wouldn't hold my breath.

30% drop in PE ratio could still mean a rising market if earnings outpace price.

Too much thinking for me.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Strategy
Replies: 18
Views: 1478

Re: Investment Strategy

As a small investor, it's very hard to see paper loss and anxious to jump in when market drops. There are so many institution and robo investors fight in this market. As a small investor, we need be patient, wait until the dust settle down. And always be value oriented. Equity valuation is still to...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 6445

Re: Still waiting to invest?

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 6445

Re: Still waiting to invest?

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 17344

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

I have a 50k hard money loan expected to redeem end of feb. Hoping the markets stay down or drop more in time for a purchase. Otherwise I don’t keep any dry powder.
by minimalistmarc
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]
Replies: 26
Views: 1931

Re: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]

I think currency hedging is a covert form of market timing and would forget about it.

The hedged investments have much higher costs.

VWRL ETF vanguard all world is the only ETF you need for your equity holding if you want to buy the global haystack rather than try to find the needle.
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 1777

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

Hedging increases costs and is an attempt to market time the ultra efficient fx market. I’m not a fan. ETFs are basically identical to funds but you can trade them instantly on the stock market. In the uk, most platforms make it much cheaper to buy and hold etf compared to funds for large amounts. I...
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 1777

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

You should hold the market weight of all the countries of the whole world.

Vanguard all world ETF will give you what you need in one ETF. VWRL is the ticker
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short NVDA?
Replies: 11
Views: 1184

Re: Short NVDA?

I would not go long this stock. It is massively overhyped and too much good news is baked into the price. Sell, sell SELLLL!!!

Too stressful, I'll just buy the index.
by minimalistmarc
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496881

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

boring.

I'm currently saving up my 2017 ISA allowance (UK roth) of 20k as I lump sum it to avoid trading costs, so I don't have the money together to buy my allowance. Maybe Ill get lucky and it'll carry on dropping until I get my stash together, I've got until April 5th
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 9075

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

This thread makes me smile: - guy cashes out to pay off 0% debt - a 23 year old with presumably small amount of savings goes to 15% bonds - somebody else who has no interest in cashing out but is stacking cash to buy cheaper and doubling down on GE (because some big deal might happen which somehow t...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What should my Asset Allocation be, Stocks vs. Bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1290

Re: What should my Asset Allocation be, Stocks vs. Bonds?

Personally, I want to die very rich so I can leave a large estate to my offspring. If you don't have any dependents, what are your thoughts on this?
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 7022

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

All you need to know is that in 20 years or more share prices will be much higher than they are now. If you don't believe that, then there is no point investing. I am staying the course with 100% equities as I am still in a peak accumulation phase. I am fairly nihilistic regarding a market crash, it...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor's asset allocation [UK]
Replies: 2
Views: 275

Re: Young investor's asset allocation [UK]

Vanguard all world etf or life strategy fund will be fine. VGOV or cash for the other bit.

I just have a one fund portfolio in vanguard all world etf
by minimalistmarc
Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 51
Views: 6657

Re: Am I being greedy?

thangngo wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:37 pm
If you can stomach a 50-80% drop in value, you're not too greedy. Remember that you're the worst enemy when it comes to wealth management.
80% that's nothing, I can stomach a 99.99% drop!
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2966

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Regarding ETFs vs funds, the only reason I choose ETFs is that it avoids holding fees charged by brokers ( including vanguard) I currently have my wife and I’s ISA with Hargreaves, 2 x 6 figure portfolios at 45 pounds per year. Even if they were 7 figures the cost would still be 45/year and I find H...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 16020

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Isn’t it unusual to have a year when the stock market doesn’t have a 10% correction?

Also, why is it called a correction. If the price goes up again isn’t it a mistake?
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice - Investing 100K in vanguard emerging/value/bond funds today, am I CRAZY?
Replies: 14
Views: 2139

Re: Portfolio Advice - Investing 100K in stocks today, am I CRAZY?

Lots of red flags here. 1) You pulled out of the market in December because you thought a correction was coming - this suggests that your equity allocation was too high as you don't have a corresponding risk tolerance 2) You now want to go back into 100% equities, with an additional tilt to riskier ...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?

So if we have a global depression (and in early 2009 the world economy was falling faster than it did in the early 1930s, by some measures) or a major war, well, it's rational for stocks to be worth less, because the future for making profits in is diminished. Interesting thought, why does war mean...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA - Too Heavy Of A Small Cap Tilt?
Replies: 20
Views: 1646

Re: AA - Too Heavy Of A Small Cap Tilt?

I don't understand the point of tilting to small caps in an 80:20 portfolio.

If you want to increase volatility and returns, why not just go to 100% equities and keep it simple?
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?

The point is, the world does not end just because of a market panic, no matter how large the drop is. There are numerous threads already on this board about selling NOW and retreating to cash/bonds. If you are stoic enough and indeed believe that the world is not ending, you can profit a lot from, ...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?

Thanks! Looks great. I normally buy Calls after at least a 25% drop from peak, and then buy more Calls when the drop goes further to 30/35%... I think we'll all see the panic that sets in on this board when that happens. While history does not really repeat, my previous attempts on SPY turned out v...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 2966

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

One further point, Hargreaves Lansdown is a fantastic website. They are extremely cheap for ETFs, capped at £45 / year What about their other fees and charges? When I have looked at them, they have always come out quite expensive. 12 pounds per trade. Very cheap. Even to transfer between my wife an...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11687

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Might be different, might be the same, I don’t know so I’m just going to stay on the ride and keep buying. Buying high, buying low, always buying, but never selling :) Agreed! But the U.S. isn't the only game in town and other developed markets and emerging markets (as a whole) have a CAPE in the m...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11687

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

How well did CAPE predict 2017 return? No proponents of CAPE have ever suggested it's predictive of 1-year returns. A longer time horizon is another story... https://www.starcapital.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publikationen/Research_2016-02_Predicting_Stock_Market_Returns_Keimling.pdf We are cur...