Search found 368 matches

by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the real contrarians please stand up?
Replies: 58
Views: 4072

Re: Will the real contrarians please stand up?

I'm a contrarian. I bought a new home in 2008 during the housing crash. I went 100% equities in 2009 when the world was burning. I have a massive short position on Tesla while everyone considers Musk a "genius" and Tesla is going to "change the world".. I sold all equities in 2018 when the market w...
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 575
Views: 65588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whatever happens, at least we have now officially had a “bear market” and will no longer have to endure tedious posts about “longest bull market/most hated bull market/this bull market is long in the tooth” We didn’t though. If you use the closing definition of bear markets it only got to 19.8% so ...
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CULater wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:29 am
Did you sell during yesterday's moonshot?
Always a buyer, never a seller. Accumulate , don’t speculate.
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 575
Views: 65588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Whatever happens, at least we have now officially had a “bear market” and will no longer have to endure tedious posts about “longest bull market/most hated bull market/this bull market is long in the tooth”
by minimalistmarc
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 575
Views: 65588

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

veggivet wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:53 pm
I posted in another thread polling on the lows for the S&P that I think we have another 10-12% on the downside...no rationale, just decades of investing experience.
If you haven’t yet learned that you cannot predict the market then I’m sorry to tell you your experience is worthless
by minimalistmarc
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter
Replies: 12
Views: 3109

Re: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter

AlphaLess wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:16 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:42 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:17 am
DeadPoets wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:57 pm
Damn, The GD was brutal.
Yup. It *WILL* happen again. Rest assured.
It won’t happen again.
What makes you think that?
It’s just common sense. America will never go through as bad a time as the Great Depression.
by minimalistmarc
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is the time to REJOICE!
Replies: 102
Views: 11782

Re: Now is the time to REJOICE!

May those who rejoice in situations which bring suffering and anxiety to countless others also live to see the day when they are on the other side of the situation and know that others rejoice while they suffer deep financial wounds. :sharebeer To be fair those rejoicing are enduring the same thing...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter
Replies: 12
Views: 3109

Re: Here’s how the stock market has fared after similarly brutal losses in a quarter

AlphaLess wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:17 am
DeadPoets wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:57 pm
Damn, The GD was brutal.
Yup. It *WILL* happen again. Rest assured.
It won’t happen again.
by minimalistmarc
Tue Dec 25, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Devilsfan118 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:46 pm
I'm going to sound very condescending here - but days like today remind me how how skittish and, frankly, foolish most personal investors seem to be

Very surprised at the nervousness that is obvious on this forum.
by minimalistmarc
Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Else Buying Xmas Sale in Equities?
Replies: 23
Views: 3272

Re: Anyone Else Buying Xmas Sale in Equities?

I would be buying but I’m already 100% equities so need to wait for new money.

Merry Christmas bogleheads!
by minimalistmarc
Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is the time to REJOICE!
Replies: 102
Views: 11782

Re: Now is the time to REJOICE!

Warren Buffet always says he likes getting a good deal on companies he buys, and now is the time for all of us! Dumping a bunch of money into stock index funds while the going is good and cheap!! Anyone else investing more now??? A fall in the price of stocks does not mean they are cheap any more t...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities % v. Total Assets at Risk
Replies: 29
Views: 2872

Re: Are you a true believer?

Branching out from a thread on those at or near 100% equities in their AA “ https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=267236 ”, I thought I would try to put some context around that assertion so others do not see the title and feel like they are missing the boat (or literally sinking wi...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Asset allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 1433

Re: Asset allocation

I'm a UK citizen investing using the Vanguard ISA (tax free savings account) My portfolio is: Equity FTSE all world 20% Small Cap 20% Value (active) 20% Bonds UK government bonds 20% UK inflation linked bonds 20% My rationale is: Highly diversified (developed world) Low cost funds (probably not by ...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the next all time high? An historical perspective
Replies: 15
Views: 2103

Re: When is the next all time high?

Could be 2019 could be 2029. It's just a guessing game.

Doesn't matter to accumulators. The longer it stays low the better as far as I'm concerned.
by minimalistmarc
Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How market timing will go wrong?
Replies: 62
Views: 3961

Re: How market timing will go wrong?

You have to be right twice. You need to know when to sell and when to buy back in. You have no idea of knowing whether or not today will be the lowest the market will ever be again. 400, 500, 600, 700—once the S&P 500 hit those levels it never went back. Not really. If you sell and buy back at any ...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All the "should I be 100% stocks" threads over the last year.
Replies: 175
Views: 12038

Re: All the "should I be 100% stocks" threads over the last year.

100% stocks and loving the correction. Hoping it goes down more and stays down for a few years.

You only go 100% equities if corrections crashes don’t bother you in the slightest.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 9942

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

I think it's useless being scared of something you have no control over. The only thing you can control is selling or not. A falling market isn't a death sentence. The only death sentence is selling in a falling market. Since most Bogleheads are not planning to sell, then there really isn't any act...
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Pay day tomorrow, guess what I’ll be buying?
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to short the equity market
Replies: 130
Views: 9236

Re: Best way to short the equity market

I don’t read seeking alpha
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to short the equity market
Replies: 130
Views: 9236

Re: Best way to short the equity market

OK, I'll bite. SPXS is a 3x leverage S&P short ETF. That answers your question, just looked it's up 4.15% as of 11:28am today. You should have bought this the day after the midterm elections, probably be up about 40% by now. This is the most risky type of investing I can think of, my guess is if yo...
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to short the equity market
Replies: 130
Views: 9236

Re: Best way to short the equity market

OK, I'll bite. SPXS is a 3x leverage S&P short ETF. That answers your question, just looked it's up 4.15% as of 11:28am today. You should have bought this the day after the midterm elections, probably be up about 40% by now. This is the most risky type of investing I can think of, my guess is if yo...
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Just bought £10k vanguard all world in taxable this morning. I’m 100% equities but usually wait till I’ve hit 20k before investing to cut trading costs. Actually I’m not 100% equities because I have about 15% NW tied up in illiquid investments/mistakes which will hopefully come back to me in 2019 an...
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FAANG
Replies: 48
Views: 3764

Re: FAANG

If it's less than 5% of your portfolio, there isn't significant risk. Even at 5% of your portfolio, that would boost your annual returns by 1.5% per year. I don't see how you can say that wouldn't be significant. I would retire EXTREMELY wealthy in 10 years if I got an extra 1.5%. KyleAAA, 1) I am ...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I just want to say I love this thread. It's probably my favourite thread on the whole internet. We have a great mix of market timers, catastrophisers, level headed folk and pure bogleheads. Every time there is a blip the market timers are very vocal, and it is very rewarding to see them learn the er...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I have been buying the dip since October. I purchased a small amount whenever the SP500 drops 1% or more. I stopped doing that today. Not because I don't have the money to, but I feel the market has entered a territory that has no support in near term. I think the next "fun" thing is to guess where...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is brutal. Anyone remember another time in recent memory where the Dow regularly dropped hundreds of points a day, virtually EVERY day for weeks / months straight? Disconcerting that ANYONE would sell at these levels. They obviously think we are going lower. ETA, agree with poster up-thread wh...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

nedsaid wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:33 pm
Another bad day. Dow down 557 points, S&P 500 down 48, and the NAZZ down 179.
Personally, I call it another fun day.
by minimalistmarc
Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Houe wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:28 pm
How are you guys feeling? I am considering lightening up on equities - this may be going much much lower.
Buying more with new money to keep to my allocation of 100% equities
by minimalistmarc
Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 6188

Re: Our mentor advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

Who cares if the stock market crashes and doesn’t recover. Fine by me, I’m 100% global equities for various reasons and a market crash with a very protracted recovery sounds fine to me, in fact I welcome it, although hope humanity doesn’t suffer
by minimalistmarc
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10365
Views: 1828926

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

bearcub wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:45 am
What about that "Santa Claus" rally CNBC always speaks of? LOL.
That is the two weeks before Christmas, so any day now stocks will soar and the media will be full of talk about the Santa rally again lol
by minimalistmarc
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 145
Views: 13216

Re: Who else is getting excited?

No, not excited to lose money. I get excited when I make money. Sometimes I think these type of posts greatly underestimate the potential risk out there. The past down turns and very fast recoveries have spoiled current investors. If you look at what happened in the Great Depression and still get e...
by minimalistmarc
Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering residential real estate investment
Replies: 74
Views: 5470

Re: Considering residential real estate investment

Not near enough return on equity, sorry. I have one single family home that we own and rent. $35,000 purchase, $650/mo rent. First year maintenance was $3500 sewer line, second year $4500 HVAC. Those are atypical repairs but nonetheless the outlays were required. $20/mo maintenance isn't near reali...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?
Replies: 6
Views: 322

Re: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?

Just remember if either of you have ever owned a home before you won’t be able to use LISA for a home purchase. Otherwise, it is perfect for your needs.
by minimalistmarc
Sun Nov 18, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?
Replies: 6
Views: 322

Re: How best to implement Dollar Cost Averaging in the UK?

If you need the money for a property purchase in 5 years look into opening a LISA. Your 400 pounds a month would get topped up by gov with 25% / 100£ for no risk. In 5 years you will have an extra 5k tax free for a house deposit.
by minimalistmarc
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?
Replies: 234
Views: 15381

Re: How much money are you leaving your kids after you die?

What my perfect situation is to set up some charity to give away money each year and they can have a set salary to administer that charity. That way they make some extra money by WORKING and hopefully lets them see the benefits of helping those less fortunate. Good luck. No offence but that sounds ...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investor - One Fund Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 580

Re: UK Investor - One Fund Portfolio

I have a 1 fund portfolio using vanguard all world ETF VWRL in my ISAs, SIPPs, and standard accounts.

Actually my SIPP is in Lifestrategy but am thinking about switching to VWRL due to lower account fees and ignorance as to the home bias when I purchased it.
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Close to the Bull Trap phase of the market cycle
Replies: 32
Views: 2879

Re: Close to the Bull Trap phase of the market cycle

DEFINITION of 'Bull Trap'. A bull trap is a false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. Bull Trap - investopedia.com www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp. New term for me also. Brok...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Properties during retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 777

Re: Investment Properties during retirement

FYI - with my Roth I would just be taking out my initial investment of each year so there would be no penalty. I live in the midwest and there are plenty of rental properties ranging from $50,000-$90,000 that can easily bring in $1200-$1500 a month. Taxes are around $2000 a year. Best investment ev...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5356

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

Just for fun, here's a less crazy strategy. If you're fairly confident the market is on the way down, you could write covered calls on your index funds. It wouldn't protect you from losses, but it would cushion them a bit. And since realized volatility tends to exceed option implied volatility on a...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5356

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

Agree completely IF one knows when the market will go south and stay south AND when it starts coming back up. His plan does not work if the market keeps going down when you are DCA. Good luck. Actually it works well if market is going down while you are DCA No it doesn't. It only works if the marke...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9574

Re: no dividends in index funds!

I wanted the quarterly dividends like I used to get with the blue chip stocks. It would just be additional income, often just at the right times. It was great to get a quarterly $800.00 dividend check. With the Index Funds I am lucky to get $300.00 quarterly for dividends.... As it happens, $800.00...
by minimalistmarc
Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9574

Re: no dividends in index funds!

Petition to have dividends officially reframed as: An annoying guy randomly sells off portions of your investments a few times a year, giving you extra taxes and lowering your return. And even though you hate this annoying guy, everybody else around you seems to love him even though it is obvious t...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK Investor - Rebalancing to Reduce Home Bias
Replies: 11
Views: 742

Re: UK Investor - Rebalancing to Reduce Home Bias

FTSE 100 is a high yielding index so if you look at total return it has done okay over the last 20 years. As a fellow U.K. investor who is 100% equities I invest solely in vanguard all world ETF VWRL. I am a seasoned investor and made a lot of mistakes and learned a lot of lessons before settling on...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5356

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

staythecourse wrote:
Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:29 pm
Agree completely IF one knows when the market will go south and stay south AND when it starts coming back up. His plan does not work if the market keeps going down when you are DCA.

Good luck.
Actually it works well if market is going down while you are DCA
by minimalistmarc
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 18139

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

4. There are portfolios that can get you 80% of the expected return of 100% stocks for less than 50% of the expected risk (measured by standard deviation). Rephrasing the math, why take double the risk for an extra 25% return? That's illogical, in my opinion. For some example portfolios of this com...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 18139

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Why stop at 100%? You can get 10x the exposure by just buying Dec 2020 at the money SPY calls. May as well go heavy. I’m 100% equities but “rebalance” regularly with new cash from my job. I usually wait till I have 20k to put lumps in. I am in a gov defined benefit pension scheme though. If I wasn’...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 18139

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Why stop at 100%? You can get 10x the exposure by just buying Dec 2020 at the money SPY calls. May as well go heavy. I’m 100% equities but “rebalance” regularly with new cash from my job. I usually wait till I have 20k to put lumps in. I am in a gov defined benefit pension scheme though. If I wasn’...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 18139

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Minderbinder wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:37 pm
Why stop at 100%?

You can get 10x the exposure by just buying Dec 2020 at the money SPY calls.

May as well go heavy.

What happens if the market drops 50%?

The above seems more like a short term punt.
by minimalistmarc
Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks
Replies: 36
Views: 5268

Re: Why I'm NOT 100% stocks

Do you really believe the market is capable of a 90% drop given today's margin requirements, broader ownership of stocks and other factors? You don't think a market mostly fueled by debt, credit, and trillions of dollars (of imaginary money) pumped into the economy can drop by 90%? No, I wouldn’t i...