Search found 283 matches

by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 14046

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

I learned not to give my father in law advice.

After years of sitting in 100% cash he asked me for help.

We are drip feeding aiming for around 50:50

I thought he had a calm head but at 20% equities this minor dip has him losing sleep already!
by minimalistmarc
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 44954

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

michaeljc70 wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:34 pm
Calais wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:23 pm
I imagine that around at PE/10 of 20 I'd resume my normal equity allocation, but I'm not totally sure.
So at least another 30% drop from these levels. I wouldn't hold my breath.

30% drop in PE ratio could still mean a rising market if earnings outpace price.

Too much thinking for me.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Strategy
Replies: 18
Views: 1540

Re: Investment Strategy

As a small investor, it's very hard to see paper loss and anxious to jump in when market drops. There are so many institution and robo investors fight in this market. As a small investor, we need be patient, wait until the dust settle down. And always be value oriented. Equity valuation is still to...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 6549

Re: Still waiting to invest?

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still waiting to invest?
Replies: 47
Views: 6549

Re: Still waiting to invest?

With 0% equities, I have plenty of dry powder, but have not yet used any of it. Stocks are simply not attractively priced, and this could get much uglier. I expect rising rates and Fed balance sheet normalization will be a headwind for the medium term, and deficits/inflation to be a headwind in the...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 17984

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

I have a 50k hard money loan expected to redeem end of feb. Hoping the markets stay down or drop more in time for a purchase. Otherwise I don’t keep any dry powder.
by minimalistmarc
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]
Replies: 26
Views: 2095

Re: Genius Needed -- Thoughts on My Asset Allocation? [UK]

I think currency hedging is a covert form of market timing and would forget about it.

The hedged investments have much higher costs.

VWRL ETF vanguard all world is the only ETF you need for your equity holding if you want to buy the global haystack rather than try to find the needle.
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

Hedging increases costs and is an attempt to market time the ultra efficient fx market. I’m not a fan. ETFs are basically identical to funds but you can trade them instantly on the stock market. In the uk, most platforms make it much cheaper to buy and hold etf compared to funds for large amounts. I...
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: British Bogleheaders - S&P 500 vs FTSE All Share, etc?

You should hold the market weight of all the countries of the whole world.

Vanguard all world ETF will give you what you need in one ETF. VWRL is the ticker
by minimalistmarc
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short NVDA?
Replies: 11
Views: 1246

Re: Short NVDA?

I would not go long this stock. It is massively overhyped and too much good news is baked into the price. Sell, sell SELLLL!!!

Too stressful, I'll just buy the index.
by minimalistmarc
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7832
Views: 1607458

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

boring.

I'm currently saving up my 2017 ISA allowance (UK roth) of 20k as I lump sum it to avoid trading costs, so I don't have the money together to buy my allowance. Maybe Ill get lucky and it'll carry on dropping until I get my stash together, I've got until April 5th
by minimalistmarc
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?
Replies: 74
Views: 9363

Re: Anyone else cashing out on *some* of the crazy earnings?

This thread makes me smile: - guy cashes out to pay off 0% debt - a 23 year old with presumably small amount of savings goes to 15% bonds - somebody else who has no interest in cashing out but is stacking cash to buy cheaper and doubling down on GE (because some big deal might happen which somehow t...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What should my Asset Allocation be, Stocks vs. Bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1351

Re: What should my Asset Allocation be, Stocks vs. Bonds?

Personally, I want to die very rich so I can leave a large estate to my offspring. If you don't have any dependents, what are your thoughts on this?
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 7160

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

All you need to know is that in 20 years or more share prices will be much higher than they are now. If you don't believe that, then there is no point investing. I am staying the course with 100% equities as I am still in a peak accumulation phase. I am fairly nihilistic regarding a market crash, it...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young investor's asset allocation [UK]
Replies: 2
Views: 306

Re: Young investor's asset allocation [UK]

Vanguard all world etf or life strategy fund will be fine. VGOV or cash for the other bit.

I just have a one fund portfolio in vanguard all world etf
by minimalistmarc
Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 51
Views: 6820

Re: Am I being greedy?

thangngo wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:37 pm
If you can stomach a 50-80% drop in value, you're not too greedy. Remember that you're the worst enemy when it comes to wealth management.
80% that's nothing, I can stomach a 99.99% drop!
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 3177

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Regarding ETFs vs funds, the only reason I choose ETFs is that it avoids holding fees charged by brokers ( including vanguard) I currently have my wife and I’s ISA with Hargreaves, 2 x 6 figure portfolios at 45 pounds per year. Even if they were 7 figures the cost would still be 45/year and I find H...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 16367

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Isn’t it unusual to have a year when the stock market doesn’t have a 10% correction?

Also, why is it called a correction. If the price goes up again isn’t it a mistake?
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice - Investing 100K in vanguard emerging/value/bond funds today, am I CRAZY?
Replies: 14
Views: 2204

Re: Portfolio Advice - Investing 100K in stocks today, am I CRAZY?

Lots of red flags here. 1) You pulled out of the market in December because you thought a correction was coming - this suggests that your equity allocation was too high as you don't have a corresponding risk tolerance 2) You now want to go back into 100% equities, with an additional tilt to riskier ...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 477

Re: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?

So if we have a global depression (and in early 2009 the world economy was falling faster than it did in the early 1930s, by some measures) or a major war, well, it's rational for stocks to be worth less, because the future for making profits in is diminished. Interesting thought, why does war mean...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA - Too Heavy Of A Small Cap Tilt?
Replies: 20
Views: 1704

Re: AA - Too Heavy Of A Small Cap Tilt?

I don't understand the point of tilting to small caps in an 80:20 portfolio.

If you want to increase volatility and returns, why not just go to 100% equities and keep it simple?
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 477

Re: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?

The point is, the world does not end just because of a market panic, no matter how large the drop is. There are numerous threads already on this board about selling NOW and retreating to cash/bonds. If you are stoic enough and indeed believe that the world is not ending, you can profit a lot from, ...
by minimalistmarc
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?
Replies: 8
Views: 477

Re: Options on World Stocks similar to Options on SPY?

Thanks! Looks great. I normally buy Calls after at least a 25% drop from peak, and then buy more Calls when the drop goes further to 30/35%... I think we'll all see the panic that sets in on this board when that happens. While history does not really repeat, my previous attempts on SPY turned out v...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 3177

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

One further point, Hargreaves Lansdown is a fantastic website. They are extremely cheap for ETFs, capped at £45 / year What about their other fees and charges? When I have looked at them, they have always come out quite expensive. 12 pounds per trade. Very cheap. Even to transfer between my wife an...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11914

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Might be different, might be the same, I don’t know so I’m just going to stay on the ride and keep buying. Buying high, buying low, always buying, but never selling :) Agreed! But the U.S. isn't the only game in town and other developed markets and emerging markets (as a whole) have a CAPE in the m...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 11914

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

How well did CAPE predict 2017 return? No proponents of CAPE have ever suggested it's predictive of 1-year returns. A longer time horizon is another story... https://www.starcapital.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publikationen/Research_2016-02_Predicting_Stock_Market_Returns_Keimling.pdf We are cur...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 3177

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

One further point, Hargreaves Lansdown is a fantastic website. They are extremely cheap for ETFs, capped at £45 / year
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 211
Views: 21846

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

It’s not greedy to keep playing if you don’t need the money. I’ll be invested until I die hopefully not for another 60 years
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)
Replies: 38
Views: 3177

Re: What do you think of my Asset Allocation? (UK Investor)

Use ETFs. You only need 2.

VWRL (vanguard all world)
VGOV (bonds)

Forget individual shares, and don’t bother tilting to the uk.

Check out these videos
http://kroijer.com
by minimalistmarc
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: panicked- how to convince family to get life insurance
Replies: 21
Views: 2645

Re: panicked- how to convince family to get life insurance

If you have the means, how about buying a cheaper condo and allowing them to live there for affordable rent, they could sell the house and take an income from the proceeds.

Hard to know which one will die first. I’m always amazed that these sorts often seem to trundle on for several more decades.
by minimalistmarc
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 6397

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Weighing by GNP does not make sense at all: Soviet Union had no stock market, but they sure had GNP. We are talking regional and not country level. Here's a paper of a German professor, who did research on this topic: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418113000451 This is downlo...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 6397

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

100% all world. Forget about the tilts.

Anybody who tilts thinks they have an edge on the market. If you think you have an edge then tilt and try to outperform. If you think you don’t have an edge just buy the damn haystack.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 112
Views: 10677

Re: Heading for a top?

When commenters say “top is in”, “bull market is long in the tooth”, I get the feeling they also feel there is going to be an epic crash. A lot of people say “there will definitely be a crash you just don’t know when”’ Thing is a crash may never come, or it may follow a parabolic boom and just take ...
by minimalistmarc
Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will this bull market last?
Replies: 5
Views: 1847

Re: How long will this bull market last?

A recession wouldn't necessarily mean the end of the bull market (e.g. the 1990 recession wasn't the end of the 80s-90s bull), but it probably would with valuations being so high if history is any guide. High valuations + recession has been really bad news for stocks historically. I would imagine t...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Building Emergency Fund - Where to put money
Replies: 16
Views: 1453

Re: Building Emergency Fund - Where to put money

I don't really understand the need for an emergency fund when equities/bonds are very liquid investments.

In the accumulation phase, is it not better just to pile into your investments?

6 months sounds extreme in any case.
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So, how was the year ? Gains made and Lessons learnt ?
Replies: 76
Views: 8064

Re: So, how was the year ? Gains made and Lessons learnt ?

Had our second child, now 5 months, wife and myself exhausted. Everything good investment wise. Work has been challenging but rewarding.

Here’s to a great 2018 to all Bogleheads!
by minimalistmarc
Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?
Replies: 47
Views: 5861

Re: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?

It's probably just you.

I've learned that is is best to ignore my instincts and just buy when new funds become available.

The only thing that would make me think twice would be the general public showing great enthusiasm once again.

In the UK, it seems like nobody else I know invests in equities.
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?
Replies: 45
Views: 4550

Re: Do you have trouble standing firm on your asset allocation?

Two very young kids at home has removed any space in my brain for anything more complicated than 100% equities vanguard all world.
by minimalistmarc
Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The extended bull market
Replies: 53
Views: 4934

Re: The extended bull market

I'm still accumulating for the next 10 - 15 years. My job is recession proof.

10 years of grinding down or a steep crash without recovery would suit me well... followed by the godfather of all bull markets preferably :)
by minimalistmarc
Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 Accumulation - What about the big dips?
Replies: 24
Views: 3612

Re: S&P 500 Accumulation - What about the big dips?

If you can’t tolerate a 40 - 50% drop then adjust your asset allocation to include more bonds or cash.
by minimalistmarc
Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving for the crash
Replies: 58
Views: 8510

Re: Saving for the crash

Invariably, market timers waiting for a crash never get back in. The reason is that as a group they have very little tolerance of risk. If the market drops 20% they will wait for 30% then 40% and so on because they can’t psychologically bring themselves to pull the trigger and put their money in.
by minimalistmarc
Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: It's that time of year again... buying christmas gifts
Replies: 70
Views: 6892

Re: It's that time of year again... buying christmas gifts

Buying expensive gifts for the boss seems a bit sycophantic to me. I would never do that, although I don't really have a boss. Think about it, why would you buy your boss a gift? You do all the hard work and they earn more than you.
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?
Replies: 13
Views: 2393

Re: 3 fund portfolio for europeans?

3 fund portfolio for Europe is something like this: Stocks: iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (IWDA) 90% iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF (EIMI) 10% Bonds: iShares Core Euro Government Bond UCITS ETF (SEGA) If you are from Netherland read this: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Invest...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan
Replies: 80
Views: 10677

Re: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan

Alexa, 1). Invest in Vanguard TSM fund $3,000. 2). Invest $850.00 per month. 3). At 7% rate of return. 4). For 40 years (age 25 - age 65). 5). You should have approx. $2Million. Here is the calculator that you need (play around with your numbers). Have Fun... https://www.investor.gov/additional-res...
by minimalistmarc
Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 10667

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

Then why have such a small percentage of your investments in it? :wink: Good question - in hindsight I should have invested much more. The small percentage is still a decent amount. I wanted to invest an amount that if it is a bubble the disappears I wouldn't beat myself up for the next 10 years. I...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 11772

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

If you hold less than 40% international then you are underweighting the global market cap and tilting to the US. If you do this then you are saying that you know more than all the other investment dollars in the world. Or maybe you're saying there are additional risks with international stocks, and...
by minimalistmarc
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 11772

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

If you hold less than 40% international then you are underweighting the global market cap and tilting to the US.

If you do this then you are saying that you know more than all the other investment dollars in the world.