Search found 339 matches

by privatefarmer
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1276
Views: 217134

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

I have a roth IRA and was wondering if one were to transfer it back and forth between multiple firms, would it became problematic trying to determine what funds were contributions and what funds were gains? if one were to retire early, for instance, I would think it might be difficult to determine w...
by privatefarmer
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.
Replies: 84
Views: 8464

Re: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.

I manage my own affairs and could care less about this. I manage my own affairs as well. However, if you are employed and have a 401K, this may affect you. I have had some pretty terrible 401K's in the past. Some charged loads. Some have only really high expenses. My wife has a really great one wit...
by privatefarmer
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.
Replies: 84
Views: 8464

Re: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.

I manage my own affairs and could care less about this. I manage my own affairs as well. However, if you are employed and have a 401K, this may affect you. I have had some pretty terrible 401K's in the past. Some charged loads. Some have only really high expenses. My wife has a really great one wit...
by privatefarmer
Fri Feb 03, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.
Replies: 84
Views: 8464

Re: It appears Fiduciary changes may not happen after all.

I manage my own affairs and could care less about this. well you may have family who will or have already been ripped off by a "financial advisor". obviously anyone reading this forum will not be dumb enough to invest in an indexed annuity or whole life product but we probably all have friends and ...
by privatefarmer
Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Big John, I really am right behind you :-) I had envisioned a 60/40 retirement for the duration as well, but am cooling off the AA more than I had anticipated Dave I'm nowhere close to retirement so don't have a tooth in this fight. But to play devils advocate, i have heard on many financial shows ...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

Our approach is one that says we could do about the most conservative thing and be OK, but that the thrust of investing sites is that the market goes up over the long haul. We have a "stop loss" percentage that would result in us having enough if the market went down to that point. We are not inten...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number1

privatefarmer, Why does anybody hold any bonds then? Clearly, the market does see some advantages in holding bonds. After all, bonds make up about half the global market portfolio. That simulation on portfoliovisualizer is confusing. It is using VARIABLE withdrawal rates not fixed. If you want fixe...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number1

privatefarmer, Why does anybody hold any bonds then? Clearly, the market does see some advantages in holding bonds. After all, bonds make up about half the global market portfolio. That simulation on portfoliovisualizer is confusing. It is using VARIABLE withdrawal rates not fixed. If you want fixe...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number1

The 100% equities portfolio continues to grow, in the vast majority of cases, even as you are withdrawing. privatefarmer, Look at the probability of success when you withdraw 4 percent a year and hold 100% in BONDS. Still convinced 100% equity is the only way to go? Yes. If you change it to 100% st...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number1

The 100% equities portfolio continues to grow, in the vast majority of cases, even as you are withdrawing. privatefarmer, Look at the probability of success when you withdraw 4 percent a year and hold 100% in BONDS. Still convinced 100% equity is the only way to go? Yes. If you change it to 100% st...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number1

I guess I just don't understand the rational behind most people's thinking here. We know to be true : 1) historically, across the global economy over as long a period of time that we can trace, equities outperform fixed income because of their higher volatility/risk 2) even if you are retired, or h...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number1

I guess I just don't understand the rational behind most people's thinking here. We know to be true : 1) historically, across the global economy over as long a period of time that we can trace, equities outperform fixed income because of their higher volatility/risk 2) even if you are retired, or h...
by privatefarmer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance when you meet your number
Replies: 106
Views: 11972

Re: Risk tolerance when you meet your number

I guess I just don't understand the rational behind most people's thinking here. We know to be true : 1) historically, across the global economy over as long a period of time that we can trace, equities outperform fixed income because of their higher volatility/risk 2) even if you are retired, or ha...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leverage and beating the market
Replies: 45
Views: 5095

Re: leverage and beating the market

If you're a buy & hold investor that has been able to weather downturns before in the past and doesn't have a need to touch investments for 30+ years, is there any issue in holding a bit of leverage to increase returns and avoid margin calls? In my early 30s and would like to find a smart way to do...
by privatefarmer
Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 227
Views: 36865

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

I have 100% of my US equity in VBR. reason being : 1) as Larry has pointed out, diversify across factors vs "asset classes". Being in small value gives you exposure to three factors, so that if one or two of the factors are not presently "working", hopefully the third one is. 2) an ETF like VBR sti...
by privatefarmer
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 227
Views: 36865

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

I have 100% of my US equity in VBR. reason being : 1) as Larry has pointed out, diversify across factors vs "asset classes". Being in small value gives you exposure to three factors, so that if one or two of the factors are not presently "working", hopefully the third one is. 2) an ETF like VBR stil...
by privatefarmer
Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 3310

Re: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?

Thanks for the replies!
by privatefarmer
Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?
Replies: 16
Views: 3310

Thoughts on ishares multifactor ETFs?

Would love to get everyone's thoughts on iShares multifactor ETF SMLF. Larry, if you happen to read this, would especially love your thoughts. Should this ETF effectively "capture" all four premiums it seeks to capture? Does this make sense or is it just complicating things too much? I see the ER is...
by privatefarmer
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - Is it worth it?
Replies: 85
Views: 10730

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - Is it worth it?

dumb question, I apologize, but how exactly do we "carry over" an investment loss for TLH from previous years? I use taxact but do not remember it "asking" me if I had investment losses from prior years. and how/who tracks all this? how does the IRS know when we've "exhausted" all our losses from pr...
by privatefarmer
Fri Dec 30, 2016 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility
Replies: 26
Views: 1894

Re: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility

Here we go again with the >100% equity posts. Bear market on the way. I hope so! Because if we are 100%+ in equities that means we have a very very long horizon. So nothing would be better than a bear market, buy stocks on sale! If one does use margin one should definitely understand the risks of m...
by privatefarmer
Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility
Replies: 26
Views: 1894

Re: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility

Or I guess a better question: how do I mimic leverage using options trading? I've tried figuring this out myself. It seems that one would need to use LEAPS. However it seems more speculative to me as the predicted future volatility of the market is factored into the price of the options contract, s...
by privatefarmer
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility
Replies: 26
Views: 1894

Re: Bond Allocation if you don't care about Volatility

Nope. But why stop at 100%? You can borrow from interactive brokers at <2% interest. I'm currently at 125% equities. Volatility only matters if you don't have an understanding of market history. I expect a 60% decline in the future. But I expect it to be temporary and over the long haul do much bett...
by privatefarmer
Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing
Replies: 31
Views: 4090

Re: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing

Larry - I apologize if this is in your book (I am currently in the middle of the newest one), but what factor premium would you expect after one has already maxed out the beta/small/value factors? If one were to add additional factors beyond these three (ie momentum, profitability, quality, etc) wha...
by privatefarmer
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 40
Views: 3612

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

stlutz Here's a very different perspective. TSM is the most diversified by NUMBER of stocks and that's it. It's much more concentrated in individual securities for example. And most importantly it leaves one with exposure to only a single factor when there are other well known factors that have str...
by privatefarmer
Sat Dec 03, 2016 2:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 40
Views: 3612

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

There are hundreds of factors in the literature. But even with just three factors you can already explain most diversified portfolio returns fairly well (high R^2, more or less). There are diminishing returns in adding more, especially after four or so, and most of the hundreds are more or less exp...
by privatefarmer
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 40
Views: 3612

active, passive, and factor investing

I hope I have not made too many posts on this subject. I have been spending much time studying the various factors (size, value, profitability, momentum, etc etc) and although the data is compelling I am now wondering if, as we discover more and more factors, we will eventually get to a point where ...
by privatefarmer
Thu Dec 01, 2016 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "purity" of small value
Replies: 12
Views: 1781

Re: The "purity" of small value

Thanks Larry! That sums it up pretty concisely. Now bridgeway funds - do they only come with an advisor or are they available on the retail market? Thanks again
by privatefarmer
Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "purity" of small value
Replies: 12
Views: 1781

The "purity" of small value

am curious as to what everyone would guess the difference in a more "pure" small cap value fund vs less pure fund would be in performance. For example, comparing a more pure find like DFA vs a less pure small value fund from vanguard. Specifically, if small cap value has out performed the S/P 500 by...
by privatefarmer
Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small cap value? overplayed?
Replies: 30
Views: 5249

Re: small cap value? overplayed?

That said, I read one of your articles on ETF.com where you compared various brands (for lack of a better work) of small value index funds. Sounded like you were a bit down on the Vanguard option (VISVX). For those of us who dont want to go through an adviser to get access to DFA or Bridgeway ... d...
by privatefarmer
Tue Nov 22, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)
Replies: 34
Views: 6098

Re: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)

Thanks for the insight everyone. I have been contemplating paying an advisory service for DFA access. But with the fee plus the increased ER of DFA funds, I would be paying almost a full 1% over vanguard for more "pure" SCV exposure. I am 100% equities, 65% of that is SCV and 35% is emerging market...
by privatefarmer
Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)
Replies: 34
Views: 6098

Re: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)

Thanks for the insight everyone. I have been contemplating paying an advisory service for DFA access. But with the fee plus the increased ER of DFA funds, I would be paying almost a full 1% over vanguard for more "pure" SCV exposure. I am 100% equities, 65% of that is SCV and 35% is emerging markets...
by privatefarmer
Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)
Replies: 34
Views: 6098

Re: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)

Private Farmer, glad you are enjoying the book and finding it helpful. The book provides all the information you need to answer your questions--and it's all in the tables I've presented here. With that said, few thoughts for you to consider. First there has been negative value premium for last 9 ye...
by privatefarmer
Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)
Replies: 34
Views: 6098

Re: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)

This article, by Larry, pretty much answers my question : http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dfa-vs-vanguard-another-take/ I guess my only concern is will DFA continue to be significantly more pure when it comes to capturing the factor premiums, enough so to overcome their higher ERs? We probably have no w...
by privatefarmer
Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)
Replies: 34
Views: 6098

Re: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)

...over the last 10 years or so there seems to not have been much difference between vanguards small value fund vs DFA, at least domestically (in actuality, vanguard has outperformed DFA but this could just be due to lack of value/small premium)... DFSVX has an average market-cap of $1,468Mil, and ...
by privatefarmer
Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)
Replies: 34
Views: 6098

DFA vs Vanguard (I know, I know)

I know this has probably been discussed ad nauseam so please forgive me. However, after reading Larry's books and countless articles including Vanguard's own article on smart beta, I strongly believe in the small/value factor premiums. My question is, and I assume Larry could answer this as well as ...
by privatefarmer
Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: determining roth contributions vs earnings
Replies: 5
Views: 694

Re: determining roth contributions vs earnings

Hello all - if someone reaches financial independence before age 59 1/2 and they want to start taking withdrawals from their portfolio, and want to start w/ the roth contributions, who exactly is responsible for providing the documentation regarding how much contributions one has made over the cour...
by privatefarmer
Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: determining roth contributions vs earnings
Replies: 5
Views: 694

determining roth contributions vs earnings

Hello all - if someone reaches financial independence before age 59 1/2 and they want to start taking withdrawals from their portfolio, and want to start w/ the roth contributions, who exactly is responsible for providing the documentation regarding how much contributions one has made over the cours...
by privatefarmer
Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 103
Views: 15134

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

stocks outperform bonds over the long term.

100% stocks 100% of the time, until my time horizon is <10 years.
by privatefarmer
Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS
Replies: 142
Views: 18166

Re: Ric Edelman's The Truth about Retirement on PBS

No mortgage in retirement lowers your fixed costs. Maybe by a lot. This allows you to keep more in stocks, because you can more easily weather a drop in the market. Best is to arrive at retirement with a paid-off house AND substantial investments. this simply isn't true. Having a mortgage is exactl...
by privatefarmer
Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking ahead to 2030.
Replies: 11
Views: 2265

Re: Looking ahead to 2030.

Let's say in 2030 the S+P500 is at approx. 3000, which is plausible (to me at least). That would mean that from 2000 (when the S+P was 1500) for 30 years, you would have only doubled your money, plus you would have the compounded dividends, which, let's say, gave you another 80%. So over 30 years w...
by privatefarmer
Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 10134

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Yes, but you are a Washington St. fan and are thus used to severe disappointment so you can handle huge stock losses. :D Full disclosure. I went to Cal, my brother-in-law went to WSU and I've been to Pullman for Cal-WSU football games many times. It's one of my favorite places to go and my second f...
by privatefarmer
Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 10134

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

To me, this is a similar argument one could make when choosing a career path. Why choose to become a doctor, lawyer, engineer, or any other profession that HISTORICALLY has made good money? Why not choose to work at McDonalds? Because HISTORICALLY the other professions have done far better. We don't...
by privatefarmer
Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 10134

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

if you have a long time horizon (ie 20+ years) there is really no sense in holding anything other than stocks. It is that simple. Nobody knows the future but we all have to make an educated guess on what is going to happen over the next 20-30 years etc and with the evidence we have why would we not ...
by privatefarmer
Sat Aug 13, 2016 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: stupid question [Sustainable withdrawal rate]
Replies: 15
Views: 2196

Re: stupid question [Sustainable withdrawal rate]

thanks all! So although the long-term CAGR of a portfolio may be X%, one cannot simply withdraw that amount each year and expect the portfolio to be unchanged at the end. Paul Merriman has a table from 1970-2016 that shows that a flexible withdrawal of 6%/year in a globally diversified 100% equity p...
by privatefarmer
Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: stupid question [Sustainable withdrawal rate]
Replies: 15
Views: 2196

Re: stupid question

No. CAGR [compound annual growth rate] is an average of actual returns over a given time period. It's not the actual growth rate for any individual year. It's possible and quite likely for a 30 year period to have a positive CAGR in which some years had a negative growth rate (I.e. In which the por...
by privatefarmer
Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: stupid question [Sustainable withdrawal rate]
Replies: 15
Views: 2196

Re: stupid question

No. CAGR [compound annual growth rate] is an average of actual returns over a given time period. It's not the actual growth rate for any individual year. It's possible and quite likely for a 30 year period to have a positive CAGR in which some years had a negative growth rate (I.e. In which the por...
by privatefarmer
Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: stupid question [Sustainable withdrawal rate]
Replies: 15
Views: 2196

stupid question [Sustainable withdrawal rate]

stupid question - if your portfolio's CAGR is 8% real, inflation adjusted, could you withdraw 8% of your portfolio's value at the end of each year indefinitely, w/o decreasing the value of your portfolio? I understand the withdrawals will fluctuate in size based on the size of the portfolio, but if ...
by privatefarmer
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New JB interview [John Bogle says industry needs to change]
Replies: 11
Views: 2072

Re: "9 Landmark Smart Beta ETFs"

Bogleheads: ETF.com website features an article about 9-landmark "Smart-Beta" ETFs. Only five of the nine have 5-year Morningstar returns (IWB; PWC; RSP; DUY; PRF). On 08/02/2016 these five Smart-Beta ETFs had an average 5-year return of 6.98% . Meanwhile Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) had a...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: portfoliovisualizer/max drawdown
Replies: 3
Views: 533

Re: portfoliovisualizer/max drawdown

Ohhh okay thanks! So the 38% drawdown on the asset backtest is probably the worst one-year drawdown, from Jan-December? That makes sense.