Search found 983 matches

by magneto
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Market Expensive?
Replies: 18
Views: 1967

Re: Is the Market Expensive?

Stage 1 Yes the market is expensive, mainly IMHO and IOHO, because all competing assets (Cash excluded) are also expensive due to central banks QE, lo interest rates policies, etc. Stage 2 Q. When will the markets be less expensive? A. Haven't a clue :annoyed In retirement we are :- 25% Risk = Stoc...
by magneto
Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 100
Views: 12276

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

As some famous person said (paraphrased), "If you want to invest in real estate, buy an REIT. REIT's never call you up in the middle of the night because their toilet isn't working." Come on now TN :D Let's demolish this oft repeated 'Straw Man' (or 'Red Herring' if preferred) once and for all. If ...
by magneto
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 100
Views: 12276

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

Diversification. Won't always work when you need them as Stocks slump. But did work extremely well for us with yields on RE at one point (when Stocks were severely over-valued) exceeding 10X yields of Stocks. RE valuations (not pricing) like Stocks move in cycles. Sometimes the cycles coincide, some...
by magneto
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 348
Views: 39618

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

This Bull Market has certainly seemed to have lasted an extraordinary long time. Valuations for individual holdings we find are nearly all within 10% of, or above historic ceilings. When will it end? - Nobody can judge surely! Much has shifted from risk to defensives in our portfolio; and that proce...
by magneto
Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 6394

Re: International Bonds

Unhedged International Bonds may offer currency diversification with resultant rebalancing opportunities.
Unlikely to appeal to many/most investors on their supposedly defensive side.
But they are after all part of the total Global investable assets.
by magneto
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Slanting International geographically or regionally
Replies: 25
Views: 1686

Re: Slanting International geographically or regionally

Perspective from another non-US (UK) investor. We maintain specific allocations on the 'Risk = Stocks' side to :- + UK + Global + USA + Asia/Pacific + Europe + Emerging Markets The major decision has been the UK (Domestic) v International balance, as the currency swings there can come into play with...
by magneto
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 12241

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I would define passive as no individual stock selection, no market timing, completely agnostic to what the individual stocks are. Dave Precisely. But a fund that might churn in excess of 100% underlying stocks turnover annually, dependent on the movement of individual stocks into and out of value o...
by magneto
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 12241

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I’ve become especially a fan of value because it seems there are both good risk based and behavioral based explanations for its persistence. Value seems to involve decision making/stock selection on fundamentals at some level, which appears a deviation from passive. Momentum would generally involve...
by magneto
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 4572

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

This trend of declining # of publicly traded stocks concerns me as an investor because it suggests that an ever increasing amount of money is chasing fewer and fewer stocks, leading to artificially high valuations and eventual collapse. This is not a purely US issue, the phenomenom exists elsewhere...
by magneto
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 7408

Re: High equity portfolios in retirement - cFIREsim scenarios.

Have you read Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18 ? I have not. What is the gist? Side-stepping 'Sequence of Return Risk' entirely through use of two buckets. The biggest risk of retirees. Stocks in Bucket 1. Five or seven years of necessary income in Bucket 2 (ST Bonds and Cash). Dr...
by magneto
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 7408

Re: High equity portfolios in retirement - cFIREsim scenarios.

Have you read Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18 ?
by magneto
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 3090

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

A a non US investor hold US short duration Bonds as a currency play. This adds a certain spice to the defensive side. It can be considered 'insurance' by linking to the world's leading currency or speculative, depending on perspective. But then volatility (currency) can be seen as a desirable featur...
by magneto
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 5213

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

great points...that leads me to 2 distinct paths I could take: 1: continue current plan: 100 or 90/10 portfolio, keep contributing while paying down debts and building emergency fund and hope I don't get laid off. 2: go the conservative, although much safer route...stop contributing to all investme...
by magneto
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...
Replies: 64
Views: 5213

Re: Any red flags all stocks no bonds...

At your age did not bother with Bonds.
But had a substantial wad of Cash on hand, over and above emergency fund, to pick up Stocks as and when they went on sale.
by magneto
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improved returns from rebalancing asset allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 846

Re: Improved returns from rebalancing asset allocation

I'm trying to confirm a thought I had about why it makes sense to have some bonds in a portfolio. I know the whole historical trend is that a portfolio with 100% stock has higher returns than 90/10, 80/20, or 70/30. However, I was thinking that having some bonds in a portfolio during a bear market ...
by magneto
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 16259

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Can we have some balance here? Moderate dividends with growth suits fine. If the retiree can live within those moderate dividends without being forced to sell stock any time at distressed prices that surely is a plus ? I.E. to be able to live within the natural yield of the portfolio, without bendin...
by magneto
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 2493

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

Time period selection makes a big difference. From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets went up by a whopping 170% while US was basically flat (slightly down if you adjust for inflation). Whether or not you tilt toward EM, international diversification is worthwhile IMHO. The key point as highlighted here...
by magneto
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 16259

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Very few would advocate high dividends at the expense of growth But moderate dividends with growth sounds just fine. If a stock rose in price to offer a lower yield would it then become more attractive to the dividend gainsayers? Again as oft pointed out Revenue, Profits, Earnings are what the acco...
by magneto
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 16259

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

This is a well trodden track. Perhaps even a straw-man? But then pages have to be filled ! Very few would advocate high dividends at the expense of growth But moderate dividends with growth sounds just fine. If a stock rose in price to offer a lower yield would it then become more attractive to the ...
by magneto
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility and Risk relationship
Replies: 29
Views: 2922

Re: Volatility and Risk relationship

I am trying to understand the relationship between volatility and risk as it pertains to options for different investment allocations. I have very high appetite for volatility (I will be able to stay the course even if market went down 40% - at least I think I would based on scenarios I have run). ...
by magneto
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?
Replies: 45
Views: 4899

Re: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?

when I see my portfolio value grow day after day I do think this isn't going to go on forever, I have seen this movie and know how it ends. So to some extent, if I am honesty, market timing is creeping into my decisions because I have no need to take the risk . At the moment I am of the mind I woul...
by magneto
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?
Replies: 45
Views: 4899

Re: How has your AA philosophy changed over the years?

when I see my portfolio value grow day after day I do think this isn't going to go on forever, I have seen this movie and know how it ends. So to some extent, if I am honesty, market timing is creeping into my decisions because I have no need to take the risk . At the moment I am of the mind I woul...
by magneto
Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should we still be investing in high grade gov bonds considering the amount of public debt?
Replies: 10
Views: 1172

Re: Should we still be investing in high grade gov bonds considering the amount of public debt?

As per other replies if a country controls its own currency and borrows in that currency it cannot default per se. The Central Bank prints money to settle the debts. Hang on to that key fact. "The Central Bank prints money to settle the debts" VT That pretty much takes care of Credit Risk. And yet ...
by magneto
Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:15 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Currency Question on UK/USA Investments (+ Should I Trust the UK?)
Replies: 12
Views: 1412

Re: Currency Question on UK/USA Investments (+ Should I Trust the UK?)

@Magneto -- Great points!! You said that Bonds in US Treasuries (short duration) would act as a sort of currency insurance. What do you mean by that? I kept trying to follow the logic in my head, but I came up clueless. That's my norm, of course... But could you explain? If either the LSE or Hargre...
by magneto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Currency Question on UK/USA Investments (+ Should I Trust the UK?)
Replies: 12
Views: 1412

Re: Currency Question on UK/USA Investments (+ Should I Trust the UK?)

Currency, the GBP is on a long term decline in the world. In 1924 Winston Churchill restored the Gold Standard at $4.24. Look where we are now. My own view is we are headed towards parity with the USD and have almost achieved that with the EUR. That's part of the long term shrinkage of the UK's pla...
by magneto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 1105

Re: 100% Stocks?

Oicuryy wrote:
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:27 am
From Damodaran's data.

Image

Ron
Brilliant those semi-log charts!
Makes 80% life-changing drawdown a mere wriggle!
'For what do we live, but to make sport for our neighbors, and laugh at them in our turn?' :happy

Thanks
by magneto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 3483

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

Human nature has not changed, so we are still subject to irrational panics. The good thing about irrational panics is that recovery can also be fairly rapid. It's the rational panics I would worry about. Irrational panics create opportunities to make money. Reminder from similar thread :- For those...
by magneto
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 1105

Re: 100% Stocks?

For those who have been fortunate to accumulate wealth and with an interest in financial history,
Benjamin Roth's 'The Great Depression - A Diary' may be a sobering read.

And as Cassandra keeps reminding me, by some measures Stocks today are more expensive than they were in 1929.
by magneto
Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing matter for long term investing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1554

Re: Does market timing matter for long term investing?

There is an ongoing problem here. The term 'Market Timing' can vary dependent on the eye of the beholder. We have 'Momentum Investing' And then we have the various Investment Formula Plans such as :- + Constant Value + Constant Value with added slope + Constant Ratio (the usual preferred BH'ers form...
by magneto
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 5206

Re: Offensive Valuations

Thanks OP, for prompting an intriguing discussion and alerting those approaching or in retirement to stop and think. The 'where else can I put the money' line of thought can lead to irrational AAs if not outright danger. As pointed out Cash is so often overlooked. And also as mentioned Rental Real E...
by magneto
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting against the possibility of a correction?
Replies: 45
Views: 5398

Re: Protecting against the possibility of a correction?

The Bogleheads® Philosophy *Develop a workable plan *Invest early and often *Never bear too much or too little risk * Never try to time the market <----------- *Use index funds when possible *Keep costs low *Diversify *Minimize taxes *Keep it simple * Stay the course <-------------- There is a fine...
by magneto
Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 2030

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

1. Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? 2. Should I perceive the same amount of risk whether it is 2 years in to a bull market or 8? 1. The academics may say that volatility is risk and risk/volatility has nothing to do with valuations. But risk when e...
by magneto
Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 14209

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

"I believe strongly that [investors] should be realizing valuations are fairly full, and if they are nervous they could easily sell off a portion of their stocks.," said Bogle, adding that investors should not sell much." JB This is a very very qualified statement; difficult to gainsay. In fact any ...
by magneto
Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 9015

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Risk tolerance? Hmmm! Downside Risk? Upside risk not an issue? Presumably the investor using a 'Constant Ratio (CR) Investment Formula Plan' will dial back their Stock exposure to suit a worst case scenario regardless of the surrounding markets? This does limit the advantages of a more flexible 'Var...
by magneto
Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?
Replies: 51
Views: 6083

Re: Which bogleheads have a "high need to take risk"?

There is an underlying assumption here, that high risk equals high reward. Loading up high on Stocks when 'on sale' may make some sense, loading up high on Stocks when fully priced less so. It remains possible for the balanced portfolio to outperform a 100% Stock portfolio dependent on the rebalanci...
by magneto
Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial History Books
Replies: 15
Views: 2014

Re: Financial History Books

Don't forget Galbraith's 'A Short History of Financial Euphoria' brimming with dry humour.
Assume that all will by now have read his 'The Great Crash 1929'.

Found Chancellor's 'Devil take the Hindmost' relatively heavy going, but it does inter-alia cover the Japan debacle.
by magneto
Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?
Replies: 204
Views: 18724

Re: Why do you LBYM? Why do you save and invest?

Why do we save and invest :-

+ Anxiety about future security
+ Ammunition to enable unrestricted free choices in life
+ Delayed gratification
+ An interest in numbers
+ Other?

Could be something in our genes perhaps?
by magneto
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the investment scenario changing for individual investors due to increase in privatization?
Replies: 24
Views: 2724

Re: Is the investment scenario changing for individual investors due to increase in privatization?

Seems like there is a large global supply of cheap money chasing yield. That's what is shaping all the markets and PE is just another market where the excess return is being arbed away over time. Just look at all the committed but uninvested money aka "dry powder". I think regulation is a canard. I...
by magneto
Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 3243

Re: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks

But, overall EM is still pretty cheap. Especially compared to Amazon, Facebook and Google. Growth and glamour stocks are not my favorite ways to invest. Similar situation here recently, found US becoming underweight. Have part topped up, but underweighting the FAANG-like growth/glamour sector stuff...
by magneto
Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities
Replies: 79
Views: 9772

Re: Help?! My 70 year old father is 100% invested in equities

JW-Retired wrote:
Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:47 am

No bonds is not insane if he wouldn't dream of selling low in a crisis
This is the key takeaway.

100% Stocks may or may not prove optimal; but for 100%ers strength of determination is essential.

Good Luck to him
by magneto
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities
Replies: 26
Views: 1484

Re: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities

In the UK; Blackrock run a number of Closed End Funds holding shares in the Global Oil/Gas, Miners, etc. Have held such a fund for over a decade or more and it certainly provides non-correlation with mainstream markets. Currrently yielding 5.7%ish (after dividend cuts) and well off price highs, unli...
by magneto
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 1025

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

For instance the momentum following cult presently driving the FAANGs to questionable levels. Buying such stocks for no other reason other than they are going up. Do we really want to load up on such stocks unduly? Good point, that's why I wrote this: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?...
by magneto
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles
Replies: 6
Views: 1025

Re: Mass psychology and market crashes in Shiller and Marks articles

From the Howard Marks' Memo: One of my clients, the chief investment officer of a pension fund told me the treasurer had proposed dumping all active managers and putting the whole fund into index funds and ETFs. My response was simple: ask him how much of the fund he's comfortable having in assets ...
by magneto
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: blood pressure monitor recommendations?
Replies: 38
Views: 3422

Re: blood pressure monitor recommendations?

I think a lot of incorrect readings come from improper use. I get the most improper use at a dentist office, so even so-called medical professionals don't always use one correctly. Beware of 'white coat syndrome'. Blood pressure can rise significantly in the presence of medical staff. Recommendatio...
by magneto
Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK based investing - bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1067

Re: UK based investing - bond ETFs

It is worth noting that if the present UK CPI inflation rate of 2.9% is to be believed, then in real terms (after inflation) the cost of the mortgage is 2.35% - 2.90% = minus 0.55%. With the repayments being in future inflation eroded £Sterling, then the lender is suffering a loss in real terms, in ...
by magneto
Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK based investing - bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1067

Re: UK based investing - bond ETFs

rgb73 wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:21 am Thanks ValueThinker. Sometimes with bonds I feel I'm better off overpaying my mortgage (rate = 2.35%), and simply holding a sizeable amount in cash. Depends on the extent of need for dry powder foreseen. Difficult to liquidate part of property/mortgage to buy ...
by magneto
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 53
Views: 9111

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

Excellent post and follow-up comments. We assume rental properties over the long-term, more or less match inflation as per independent studies, while providing a yield varying from 2.5% to 12.5% dependent on property types and house price cycles. When you buy can be almost as important as where and ...
by magneto
Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sitting on the sidelines...for now
Replies: 32
Views: 4694

Re: Sitting on the sidelines...for now

If using such an approach then an Investment Plan is definitely needed to determine the decision making process in advance of market fluctuations and transactions. Or as observed above one could indeed be left sitting on the sidelines forever. The IP would typically include some method of gauging ma...
by magneto
Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree
Replies: 8
Views: 1679

Re: Portfolio asset allocation for a retiree

Suggest reading Frank Armstrong's book 'The Informed Investor' chapter 18.
See also his website.
by magneto
Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Be careful with Passive Index ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 2898

Re: Be careful with Passive Index ETFs

As far as the general theme about ETFs trading well below the underlying. Short answer: yes this did happen. It is probably 1/2 fixed. And mostly won't matter to Bogleheads even if weren't fixed at all. Maybe sometimes overlooked is that behind the workings of the 'authorised participants', ETFs ar...