Search found 1877 matches

by grap0013
Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 181
Views: 30127

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Just converted $35000 worth of QSPNX to QSPIX. $49.95 transaction fee. Breakeven point is 6-7 months. Worth it.

Just FYI, TS MOM fund QMHIX said $100,000 minimum but I'm definitely allowed to purchase less than that. Still debating adding an allocation to that.

Just FYI all.
by grap0013
Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 16767

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Hi Larry, Love the new book! I just finished Appendix F on TS MOM last night and had a few questions. In particular pertaining to the 2014 paper by Hutchinson and O’Brien. 1. I’m paraphrasing, subsequent to a global financial crisis, trend following aka TS MOM tends to be weak for four years on aver...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 22950

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

I was hoping for, "The Tilter's Guide to the Galaxy" and a cover with planets and shooting stars on it but this will have to do. :wink: Looks like a very good read and will probably serve as a reference. I'll put it on the mantle in the living room. Not sure if guests will think I'm crazy for liking...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's going on with REITS this week?
Replies: 26
Views: 4811

Re: What's going on with REITS this week?

5 year annualized return ~15% for REITS. Reversion to the mean. Sooner or later they have a beat down coming to them. A reasonable statement in general, but I doubt current noise is any symptom of said reversion. Agreed. One has 3 options: 1. Permanently add a REIT allocation 2. Permanently remove ...
by grap0013
Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's going on with REITS this week?
Replies: 26
Views: 4811

Re: What's going on with REITS this week?

5 year annualized return ~15% for REITS. Reversion to the mean. Sooner or later they have a beat down coming to them.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small (VSS/VFSVX) Underperforms ALL Active Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 4140

Re: International Small (VSS/VFSVX) Underperforms ALL Active Funds

How is this possible?!? :oops: From Morningstar's performance tab for VSS: Rank in Category (Price): 3 years: 80 5 years: 100 :shock: Rank in Category (NAV): 3 years: 100 5 years: 100 :oops: Is this the one area of the market where active management makes sense? Or am I missing something? I'd do th...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Where is Livesoft?
Replies: 94
Views: 17229

Re: Where is Livesoft?

He would post from Mexico. You don't post that much and stop
Cold turkey. I hope he's ok.
by grap0013
Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is extra diversification worth 0.18 plus liquidity cost
Replies: 8
Views: 1108

Re: Is extra diversification worth 0.18 plus liquidity cost

I have US projected at 6% real, Europe at about 8%, and EM at 10%. It will cost you a lot to not diversify. Run your same calculation with a 2% underperformance by US. See how much you may miss out on by not diversifying. How does that make you feel? One has to look at a range of potential outcomes ...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 75
Views: 10994

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

ER of 1.48% :shock: How does anyone who calls themselves a Boglehead get interested in such a fund? Because of this bwahaaahawhahwhwha!!! https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%2F28%2F2016&initialAmoun...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today
Replies: 15
Views: 1749

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today

I love All in the Family but you have definitely massively upped my incentive to diet... Cliff I have watched all three videos and found that I like Cliff Asness. He actually posted here and showed a great sense of humor. He also somewhat resembles Rob Reiner, I expect Archie Bunker to say, "Outta ...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today
Replies: 15
Views: 1749

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today

Cool find matjen. I heart AQR. :beer My pleasure tarheel. There is actually an additional video up. I had watched the original studio interview live and was slightly annoyed that they had edited out the last few minutes where he talked about everyone's favorite mutual fund QSPIX! Here is the new vi...
by grap0013
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 16767

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

I have more thoughts, but hey, it's the weekend so I'll keep my comments short. Quick question: Larry what is your expected return for the AQR HV fund? 5% real?
by grap0013
Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 16767

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Robert T, Thanks for linking that other thread. I missed that one. I see the decreased tail risk now. Backtested +20.9% in 2008. With an SD of 10 it looks like your backtest best represents TS MOM "light". If we attempt to extrapolate out the high volatility (HV) version's 2008 returns with 50% high...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 16767

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Thanks all for your responses! Lots to think about here. Any other thoughts on the correlation of 0.38 between QSPNX and QMHNX? If it were 0 +/- 0.2 I would be more convinced on adding TS MOM. Is it higher because something is not translating from academia to implementation? Don't get me wrong 0.38 ...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 75
Views: 10994

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

Funny funny. Long story short is it's a complicated way of losing money, but some folks around here like it because it's losing money for different reasons than the market as a whole. And they add some schooling for the mere mortals lol. Upside is I pretty much got some response to my question: tha...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 16767

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

A few more questions... Larry, Why did your firm wait until now to recommend TS MOM funds in its portfolios? That 2016 paper you referenced in that ETF.com was convincing? Was AQR's data previously available and it was validated by that 2016 paper? Just wondering. Looks like Fido users can likely bu...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 16767

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Larry, What is the correlation coefficient between TS and CS momentum? What ratio are you personally holding between Style Premia Alternative (SPA) and TS momentum? 50:50? I'm currently 80% equities and 20% SPA. I do not want more than 20% alternative investments. I can't see taking a lot out of SPA...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 75
Views: 10994

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

I don't think this is a fair question to ask. Please keep in mind that I personally am skeptical, even snarky about this fund--not that it matters because I don't think it's available to me anyway--but what do you expect from this fund, and what did Larry or AQR or anybody say about it? I don't thi...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 7864

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

Ok--so I am going to go for it and stop tilting. A couple responses (without quotes, sorry): - I do understand the technical meaning of expected return (I have a strong math background) - I do understand that flipping strategies around a lot is a bad idea. This is why I told myself in my IPS to pic...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 7864

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

"Potential" sounds more like "hope" to the tune that the positive outcome might only happen a low percentage of the time. I could "potentially" win the lottery. I have the "potential" to be a professional athlete. See my point? Why the heck would I even invest in riskier stocks over bonds if there a...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 7864

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

A lot of tilt Bailer's on this thread. Keep those premiums alive and kicking baby! :sharebeer

(I know, annoying post but I could not resist!)
by grap0013
Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?
Replies: 45
Views: 5658

Re: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?

Because their correlation is not -1. The trend especially the past 9 years has been to move in opposite directions but it's definitely not an absolute.
by grap0013
Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of series on how frequency of checking values can impact returns
Replies: 22
Views: 3267

Re: Part 2 of series on how frequency of checking values can impact returns

Perhaps since we've had 2 recent big drops (tech collapse and 09') it won't happen again until I've won the game and by that point will have the Larry portfolio and not care much :D I know you are joking but you may be right. 10-20% Haircuts happen every year or two. Full blown 40%+ losses are infr...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1255
Views: 192254

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Is QSPIX losing its magic: YTD: -3.16% through 8/31/16 August: -2.48% The last week has been particularly bad. Wonder what factors have turned negative in their mix. Will have to wait till October when they publish their 3rd quarter attribution analysis. I was waiting for someone to post about poor...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1955

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

^Nice summary. One has to take all that into consideration and also recognize avoidance of wash sale for tax deferred/Roth assets. My spouse contributes 100% of her 401K contributions to VSIAX. Contributions and dividend reinvestment would trigger a wash sale for me if I try to harvest VBR from taxa...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TRLGX (T Rowe Price Large Cap Growth) Thoughts
Replies: 3
Views: 730

Re: TRLGX (T Rowe Price Large Cap Growth) Thoughts

^ +1 Axe that sucker. Don't even think twice about it. Here is what happens, something like 10 active funds out of 100 will beat your low cost index fund comparison fund over a 10 year period by random luck. 401K plan administrators will pick some of those 10 funds for your 401K plan thinking they a...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1955

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

FNDE-PXH would be large emerging value TLH pairs. FNDC-PDN would be dev exUS small value TLH pairs. Depending on which funds remain in your portfolio after you harvest losses, it’d be possible to overweight/underweight South Korea. FNDE & PDN include it, PXH & FNDC do not. I think in taxable you ul...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1955

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

I meant FNDE in my above posts. Edited.
by grap0013
Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1955

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

hmmm...decisions, decisions. I can definitely feel the pull towards simplicity when it comes to tilting in the international space. I could stick with the trusted Vanguard funds and still overweight EM and small to keep things spicy. And yet, I'd hate to miss the EM value upswing--all those juicy B...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How did your 401k fund grow from 2006 to 2016? please share. did you come out fine for 2008 crash?
Replies: 27
Views: 4926

Re: How did your 401k fund grow from 2006 to 2016? please share. did you come out fine for 2008 crash?

I literally started maxing my 401K with the first paycheck of 2007. Talk about buy high. I now have 250K+. A bunch of buying low. Decent match. I likely have more than the OP because I am one aggressive SOB.
by grap0013
Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1955

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

Grap, It seems weird to TLH from a fundamental fund (FNDC) to a cap-weighted fund (VSS), but I see your point about PDN's low AUM. Likewise, it seems weird to TLH from PXH (mega cap) to DGS (small cap). Is your preference for PXH over FNDE because of the later's tracking error? Thanks again. Oh I f...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1955

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

Full disclosure: I have not had a taxable account for a few years as I liquidated mine to buy a house. I'm now maxing tax deferred and paying down debt. I think all of the following are ok to use in taxable and listed in order of my preference within the asset class: US SCV: VBR IJS dev exUS SCV: FN...
by grap0013
Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on this new fund: suitability for EM small and value
Replies: 22
Views: 3876

Re: Opinions on this new fund: suitability for EM small and value

I agree with all of the other posters.

You'd be better off splitting your EM space:

25% PXH/SFENX
25% DFCEX
25% DGS
25% EEMS

That's a nice core 4 for EM. It will help minimize tracking error regret and performance chasing within an asset class.
by grap0013
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 216
Views: 16565

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

I think this exchange is why I've become more skeptical of tilts of various types over this time. Backpacker posits a very legitimate and believable "story" as to how the value premium could go away and Larry replies with the same comments he makes in every thread. Essentially what we get told us t...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 216
Views: 16565

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

The whole point of my post was that the value spread doesn't need to shrink for the expected value premium to go away. All you need is for the market to do a better job estimating future earnings. That's asking a lot. I know a lot of people in the market that are not good with money. Plus value com...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 216
Views: 16565

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

And when I see post like yours about how the value premium may shrink to nothing, I think "good thing I have VBR! With 850 companies for 0.08%, it would be a reasonable investment even if there were no size and value premia." I read about asset allocation for about 5 months in 2010 and in October o...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 3141

Re: Knowing what you know now...

Money is ultimately a tool and is used for spending. I wouldn't go back and change a thing. Some on this forum are too frugal IMHO. Live a little. Save 15-30% and you'll do just fine. It sounds like you need a new job more than anything. Find something more enjoyable for work. You will find your lev...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 4627

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

HomerJ, do you benchmark bonds against stock funds or US stocks against international stocks? And declare winners or losers after 3 years? I didn't declare a winner; grap0013 did. So I was replying to that. Your point is spot-on though. There's nothing to benchmark QSPIX against, unless you have a ...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 4627

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

The past 2 days all my stock holdings have been down. Treasury bonds have been down too both days. QSPIX the past 2 days has been +0.5% and +0.69%. Look at this correlation matrix: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=DFSVX%2C+DISVX%2C+DFEVX%2C+QSPIX%2C+IEF&endDate=08%2...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 4627

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

So, now, I'm spending my time looking into the merits as well as drawbacks of Vanguard's Market neutral fund... it's cheaper than AQR. Not sure if it's adequate or if money would be better spent on the AQR product. Thoughts? GOR All market neutral funds are not created equal: https://www.portfoliov...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'd like to set up an alert for when the market drops.. tips?
Replies: 12
Views: 1523

Re: I'd like to set up an alert for when the market drops.. tips?

After reading a lot of replies and advice, I'm not going to try to time the "buy-ins" for the most part, but I'd still like an alert to see when things drop. I don't have the will to check the markets daily.. so I'd like an alert/text/something. I just want to look at the ice cream, but I don't wan...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof/deck ideas?
Replies: 15
Views: 1344

Re: Roof/deck ideas?

Rupert wrote:Have you talked to a structural engineer or architect to make sure the structure below will hold the weight of a deck + furniture + people up there?
I have not, I just assumed it would easily hold because "it seems very sturdy". Good idea though, better safe than sorry.
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof/deck ideas?
Replies: 15
Views: 1344

Re: Roof/deck ideas?

I would be concerned that anything (chairs, wood of new deck) you place on it could puncture the rubber membrane = leaks into room below. That is our fear too. We thought if we could put something safe between the rubber membrane and table + chairs it should be ok. Some of those deck materials can ...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof/deck ideas?
Replies: 15
Views: 1344

Roof/deck ideas?

I have a 2nd story outdoor black flat rubber membrane roof. Here's an idea of what it looks like if you are not familiar with these: http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=flat+rubber+membrane+roof&FORM=HDRSC2 Comes off the main bedroom. Pretty location. Deck posts and railing are already up there. I b...
by grap0013
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory only... when to stop 401k contribution
Replies: 46
Views: 5501

Re: Theory only... when to stop 401k contribution

I know its always best to max out your 401k, but at what point is your balance large enough that maxed contributions are insignificant?? Again... just for fun and discussion, what is the magic amount when gains totally overshadow contributions? He said "just for fun" people. I say when you are at 2...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What makes people succeed?
Replies: 98
Views: 10821

Re: What makes people succeed?

Successful people I know really don't care too much about what others think about them. They don't worry about the failings of other people and certain don't worry about any failings they might have. And they especially don't care if anybody criticizes them. They just get on with being themselves. ...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 17392

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Interesting psychology in this thread. I think people who favor mental accounting tend to be more emotional than people who use more logic and reasoning in my humble opinion. When someone tells a mental accounter their methods are less than ideal they sometimes get emotional and defensive about thei...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 282
Views: 53284

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Theoretical wrote:FNDE is up nearly 40% since January 15.
Word. Fundamentally EM is making some hay after being dogs of the dogs (EM overall) for the past several years. Some pretty good drama in EM.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: wishing the market would drop to buy more shares
Replies: 36
Views: 4365

Re: wishing the market would drop to buy more shares

I am not sure what the purposes of these type of threads are? I am still relatively young (turning 40 soon) and ONLY see this bravado in the really young. Funny when I think about it I only see bravado in ANYTHING in the young. Don't think I have ever seen an older person have that quality. +1. Lik...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 259
Views: 111953

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

This thread reinforces my beliefs. I think most people should have 60 to 70% 5 year treasury bonds who are near/at retirement. A 30:70 mix of global cap weighted stocks with treasuries lost less than 3% in 2008. Talk about sleeping well at night. I know total bond is yielding something like double t...