Search found 1555 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 7255

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

Lancelot wrote: According to this link https://www.americanfunds.com/individua ... .html.html five American funds have beaten Vanguards 500 Index fund, since its inception in 1976. I'm still chewing on that one. Does that include the 5.75% load? American Funds start out with 94.25 while the 500 Ind...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 7255

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

Jags4186 made the point with a graph that American's Growth Fund (AGTHX) has outperformed the S&P 500 (VFINX) since its inception in the early 1970s, more than 40 years ago. That outperformance came early on and, as its success became common knowledge, lots of assets flowed into AGTHX which now has ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 112
Views: 9528

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Dividend growth is an attractive strategy in a number of ways. It selects solid, slowly growing companies with a long history of a growing dividend stream. That, by the way, seems to me a great definition of QUAL. DIV GR is expected to have less dramatic losses relative to both market and value in a...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 3973

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

Perhaps change the question to: Anyone out there who has actually stuck rigidly for long periods of time to their long term allocation plan? I think it's natural for portfolios to evolve over time. It often takes a bear market or two before you learn (sometimes the hard way) what your true risk tole...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 112
Views: 9528

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Great post, siamond, and great feedback, nedsaid, among others. Very interesting reading, good example of how much one can learn on the Forum. My two cents worth. The time period we are evaluating is basically the last 30 years, a period of ever lowering interest rates/inflation and recently sluggis...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets
Replies: 13
Views: 1466

Re: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets

Great post, Random Walker, thanks for keeping us up to date on Larry's insightful articles. Quote from article about Shaw, one of the early successful quants: He goes on to quote Shaw, who explained: “Anomalies that had previously generated significant profits stopped making money, and you had to di...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8788

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

If this is accurate, 100 Bil in cash or short term Treasuries, it says something about Warren's assessment of current US valuations and expected long term returns. It says that Buffett can't find a lot of investment opportunities selling for less than his measurement of their intrinsic value. We all...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 08, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Post from AQR's Cliff Asness
Replies: 5
Views: 1481

Re: Another Great Post from AQR's Cliff Asness

Cliff Asness wrote in matjen's post: But, ultimately, if we believe these factors are real and priced reasonably (particularly in a world where many investments, like traditional stock and bond markets, are quite expensive), we should invest in them. I think there is general agreement that today tr...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 08, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor crowding
Replies: 19
Views: 1530

Re: Factor crowding

privatefarmer wrote: I think I've just come to the conclusion that the more I learn the more I realize I don't know. And that it's best that I simply accept the market return and stop trying to outsmart others. If there's smart beta then conversely there must be "dumb beta" but I am not confident e...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 2058

Re: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

Simplegift wrote: If/when it all comes crashing down, what are your thoughts about potential spillover effects on the world economy? We have an example of exactly that scenario in the 2007-9 crisis. A severe and sudden decline in home values if it is large in scope relative the world economy precip...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 2058

Re: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

Highly skilled, well educated, wealthy people, those who are mobile and can choose where they will live without large cost constraints, tend to congregate along the coasts, particularly the west coast and in large sophisticated urban areas. Being smart, skilled, and creative they create the robust e...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Tony Robbins/Ray Dalio portfolio make sense at today's low rates?
Replies: 17
Views: 1392

Re: Does the Tony Robbins/Ray Dalio portfolio make sense at today's low rates?

In my opinion the Robbins/Dalio Portfolio demonstrates the inherent flaws in cherry picking a backtesting period to derive an optimal portfolio. As has been pointed out already, this 1984 - 2013 period is a very neat fit for the dates of the start all the way to the end of the greatest bond bull mar...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Fundamentals v. Price
Replies: 4
Views: 578

Re: Larry Swedroe: Fundamentals v. Price

The factor investing story continues to evolve and to get more complex as academics and factor fund groups crank out ever more research. Twin MOM is a new twist and it looks very promising on backtesting but involves even more frequent trading apparently than other MOM strategies. I think Larry's ar...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations
Replies: 102
Views: 7121

Re: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations

Wow! What an extraordinary piece of work and research, siamond. Thanks for sharing it. I have so many thoughts about the SIP as well as the 3 fund and tilted approaches. It seems to me that each one has a rational basis but that does not guarantee outperformance. I am not sure what conclusion to dra...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4508

Re: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]

Fidelity is a bit late to the low cost index party and they have arrived only after mass exodus from their higher cost options. They have seen the light, but only because their asset has been departing their active management and higher cost strategies in favor of low cost investing with Vanguard. F...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing most effective in micro cap
Replies: 8
Views: 1108

Re: Factor investing most effective in micro cap

grabner wrote: (And despite this expectation, I am willing to take this risk; I hold RZV, Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value, which is mostly micro-caps and deep value.) RZV is, as Grabner says, a pure and full exposure to the small and the value premiums, microchip deep value. In theory it should maxim...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8446

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

I think the take-home message on predictions in general, including this one by Greenspan and any others made by anyone who tries to predict in advance what markets are going to do in the future is simple. Nobody knows nothing. Predictions generate a lot of buzz and concern but most of them turn out ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Replies: 32
Views: 5314

Re: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?

Borrowing to invest works well in a bull market like we've had in the last 9 years. When it doesn't work well, when in fact it can be disastrous, is severe bear markets. In the depths of the financial collapse of 2008-9, no advisor was suggesting to clients to mortgage their houses and invest the pr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Secret of the Index Fund’s Success?
Replies: 25
Views: 3217

Re: A Secret of the Index Fund’s Success?

Great post as usual, Todd. TSM and/or a 3 fund or 4 fund portfolio provide good tradeoffs in terms of risk and reward in markets. Lowest cost, tax efficiency, and simplicity are also their hallmarks. It is easier to manage a 3 fund portfolio than a 10 fund portfolio especially if you have to make pe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing most effective in micro cap
Replies: 8
Views: 1108

Re: Factor investing most effective in micro cap

The cited article is interesting and it makes the point that on backtesting cost-free factors provide robust returns in the micro-cap space but due to huge trading costs and illiquidity they are very difficult for funds with considerable assets to harvest. It suggests that individual investors or ot...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Replies: 32
Views: 5314

Re: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?

Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Yes.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett bet's on utilities
Replies: 4
Views: 1317

Re: Warren Buffett bet's on utilities

If Warren is in fact shifting his equity focus toward the utility sector it may indicate that he has concerns about more aggressive high risk/high return equity sectors going forward. Utilities are not sexy, never have been, but they offer a certain amount of conservative risk averse behavior as an ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3694

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

willthrill81 wrote: It's interesting that you just sort of play it by ear to determine when to sell your equities in order to replenish your spending reserve. That's probably about as reasonable an approach to this bucketed method as there currently is though. I've been doing it for 20 years withou...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 3781

Re: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?

goshenBogle wrote: About 80% of our $4.5 million portfolio is invested in Vanguard funds. My wife feels that we should invest no more, that maybe 80% concentrated in one mutual fund company is too much. I feel that Vanguard is very stable and see no problem increasing the 80% to even 90%. I don't t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3694

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

willthrill81 wrote: I plan on using a similar strategy in retirement myself, though I plan to have closer to a decade of spending in bonds or a SVF. What I am wondering is precisely how do you replenish your cash and bonds after you've spent that money in a market downturn. Do you just wait until s...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International correlations hit 20 year low
Replies: 33
Views: 3094

Re: International correlations hit 20 year low

Schwab advisors make the case that decreasing correlations between US and INTL increase the diversification benefits of including INTL in an equity portfolio. Increased diversification may or may not mean increased returns but does it suggest less risk and lower overall portfolio volatility. Thought...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 980

Re: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield

The chart on page 10 demonstrates that currently more than 90% of operating earnings is spent on buybacks and dividends. Bear in mind that typically operating earnings are generally higher than GAAP earnings, inflating earnings a bit. Also keep in mind that during recent years, as others have noted,...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum

Robert T wrote: I would just note that the large cap focus of the MSCI US Momentum Index vs. FF US Large Cap Momentum (-0.19 vs. -0.03 size load) and less frequent rebalancing (twice per year vs. monthly) likely helps to reduce trading costs and perhaps even increases capacity – both of which are c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3694

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

I've been retired for 20 years and have consistently kept sufficient cash/short term high quality bonds in my taxable account to cover living expenses for at least a couple of years. This is done to prevent the cardinal sin of selling equity into weakness during market collapses in order to provide ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs buybacks
Replies: 60
Views: 3056

Re: Dividends vs buybacks

nedsaid wrote: One point I want to bring up on the dividends vs buybacks discussion is that US corporate management is fixated on maximizing shareholder value and thus the focus of management is holding up the stock price. It seems to be more about the stock price than the underlying business. Thus...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
Replies: 53
Views: 5057

Re: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?

Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1690

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

It is sufficiently difficult for most of us to hold on with a significant allocation to unhedged equity during a severe market downturn. When we talk about leveraging up 2X or 3X there are very few indeed who can maintain their nerve during a collapse like 2008-9, unless of course they have a large ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015
Replies: 12
Views: 1117

Re: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015

Simplegift wrote: Thus I’m still skeptical that we can have high stock returns in a low-growth world. 1+ Yet another great post, Todd, about the relationship between macroeconomics and markets. Thanks for posting such a thoughtful piece. I agree with your skepticism that in a low global growth worl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash out refinance residence to invest?
Replies: 11
Views: 977

Re: Cash out refinance residence to invest?

WarChest wrote regarding cash out refinance to invest: It depends on so many things. I'm all for not really market timing regular contributions, etc. But with something like this I would say only do it after you've seen a really crummy market run. Total stock is up something like 14.5%/year over pa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2493

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

nedsaid wrote: I just checked the US Treasury 30 year bond and it yields 2.836%. Amazingly low. The US Treasury 10 year yield is now 2.30%. Again, amazingly low. The US Treasury 5 year bond now yields 1.89%. In effect when you buy 30 year Treasuries you're taking 25 years of duration risk for the g...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1915

Re: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015

Great post as usual for you, Todd. Thanks for posting. And some great input as usual from nedsaid. This Forum is a great educational resource in the fields of investing and finance for those who wish to look beneath the surface noise on which most financial media concentrate.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 2866

Re: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?

would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean
Replies: 29
Views: 4179

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean

Good article, thanks for posting Dave. Always enjoy reading Larry's thoughts. Larry suggests that factor premiums have taken a 25% haircut but they are still exploitable. I believe he favors a multi-factor approach to do so. Larry is bright and knowledgeable guy and his "Larry Portfolio" is IMO bril...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2493

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

ralph124cf wrote; I believe that current long term interest rates are irrationally low, and thus I have zero long term bond exposure. Ralph I agree with Ralph. The developed world is awash with two things, savings among the wealthy and aging populations that must prepare for retirement. Many of the...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?
Replies: 14
Views: 2524

Re: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?

Valuethinker wrote: The manager of VG Prime MMF has given an interview (I don't have a link) in which he says: - they are cognizant of the direct European risks-- no Italian or Greek bank paper - they have studied the secondary risks and are very 'tight' (short maturity, exposure only to the best c...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve
Replies: 4
Views: 646

Re: TIPS yield curve

As an aside, short term rates are largely controlled FED policy. The FED has already raised rates and plans to continue doing so unless the inflation/employment picture deteriorates. Long term rates change much less in response to FED policy than to the bond markets assessment of future long term ec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6603

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

triceratop wrote: Of course there is default risk, that is why the yield on this bond is so high. I'm less sure how the fact it is priced in USD implies more default risk. Wouldn't there be objections to investing in this bond if it was priced in Pesos since the investor would be taking on signific...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6603

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

It is easy to understand why Argentina might issue 100 year bonds. In this country inflation is a constant and has been so for a long time. The currency is volatile to say the very least, sometimes almost illiquid. Fiscal policy is imprudent now and has been often in the past. The governmental defic...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 4467

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

Yes, it is true that stocks are risky, but it is also true that for long term investors whose goal is to have portfolio growth they are essential. Many on this Forum prize intermediate Treasuries as the an example of ultra-low risk and suggest a heavy allocation to that asset class because of its sa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active
Replies: 5
Views: 1300

Re: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active

Thanks for posting this article, Random Walker. Read it and enjoyed it. I really miss Larry's input on the Forum and these posts are helpful at keeping us in touch with Larry's insights.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 3013

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

There is a bandwagon of money now seeking factor approaches and I suspect Wealthfront, like other financial companies, is shooting for a slice of that market with this new approach. The profit motive drives the vast majority of corporate decisions. When it comes to factors these are tough times to t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments
Replies: 14
Views: 2228

Re: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments

Congratulations on moving to the Palo Alto/SF Bay area. It used to be a great place to live. I know I used to live there. The good news is that the area is the intellectual/creative engine that drives much of worldwide technology innovation and the resultant tech income stream for the US and much of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 2388

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

nedsaid wrote: Yes, there is a lot of noise in the financial data. And yes, numbers change over time as there seems to be a lot of slipperiness. International Stocks were the "must have" asset class before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and now they are hardly worthy of the dustbin. In a ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 17706

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: On the other hand, Ally Bank is offering a no-penalty CD at 1.35% for $25K minimum, and it was worth the five minutes it took me to open two of them last week (since I already have Ally accounts, and use Ally as my hub bank). I just went to the Ally Bank web site and checked on their...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 17706

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: Finally! So why haven't you been using an "insured liquid bank account" earning 1% in preference to a MM account earning 0.01%? Currently Prime MM fund is yielding 1.01%. My local bank doesn't offer savings accounts that yield that much but even if they did I'd leave my mon...