Search found 1815 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is global debt an issue for investors?
Replies: 17
Views: 1228

Re: Is global debt an issue for investors?

Interesting post and comments. Just my 2 cents worth. Two points. First, it is not really actionable one way or the other in terms of asset allocation because of a high level of uncertainty as to when global debt will become a major market factor and to what degree it will happen. Second, at some un...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 3242

Re: Emerging markets tilt

Equity allocation:

50% US: TSM 75% PRFZ 25%
25% EM: DGS 50%, VWO %25, VMMSX 25%
25% DM: FNDC 50% FNDF 25% VEA 25%

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?
Replies: 31
Views: 2962

Re: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?

Simplegift, great post as usual. In times of low and/or persistently decreasing inflation (i.e. what we experienced for 3+ decades until recently) no one really thinks much about inflation. People fall in love with nominal returns as a measurement of success in fixed income, annuities, and other are...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not annuitize most of portfolio?
Replies: 104
Views: 8448

Re: Why not annuitize most of portfolio?

The problems with annuities: 1) Inflation, the biggest problem. Realizing this, very few companies offer inflation-adjusted annuities and they don't push them. There is no way to reliably know what the impact of cumulative inflation and therefore what your real return will be in 10 or 15 or 20 years...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14979

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Looks like Joe Davis sized it up properly back when the market was constantly going up without volatility. IMO Vanguard as a firm is conservative and hesitant to make predictions unless they are well founded. When they do venture into the uncertain realm of market predictions, they're usually worth ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2443

Re: Value premium harvestable?

Alexa9 wrote: I show a much different picture going back further. SCV requires rebalancing through thick and thin to capture the premium. The enclosed graph goes back to 1972. No one denies that the small value premium existed and was robust prior to the time it got widely known and factor investin...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2443

Re: Value premium harvestable?

Although my post questions whether funds seeking SCV or V for example are destined to outperform in the long run, I must admit that I tilt my own portfolio, modestly in the US, substantially in EM and DM. I do that in the US not because I'm certain of factor outperformance but rather because TSM, my...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2443

Value premium harvestable?

The Vanguard Value Index Fund and the Vanguard Growth Index Fund have both been in existence since 11//2/ 1992. That is over 25 years, both operating in the large cap space using opposite strategies, one using a value strategy, the other a growth strategy. Over that long time period the value factor...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 15732

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

I think Larry states the problem accurately: that both US stocks and quality bonds are likely to produce significantly lower returns going forward than in the past. I agree with him on the importance of international diversification. Personally, I am not a believer in alternate assets or in expensiv...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on "Buckets" at Morningstar. How Does The Bucket Approach To Retirement Allocation apply to you?
Replies: 23
Views: 2503

Re: Article on "Buckets" at Morningstar. How Does The Bucket Approach To Retirement Allocation apply to you?

I have used my own version of a bucket strategy for 31 years, 20+ of which I have spent in retirement, and it has worked well for me. No investing approach, including annuities + SS, is bulletproof except a very generous TIPS ladder that assumes maximal longevity and maximal spending needs in the fu...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 3448

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

This is a very interesting discussion between two of the most enlightened minds on the Forum, Simplegift and Siamond. I'll throw in a few simple observations, sort of the Cliff's Notes version. First, if inflation rises in a persistent fashion future corporate profits streams are discounted by the e...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15869

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Doc wrote in response to my comments about Short Term TIPS: But is inflation any concern in the short run? Short term inflation concerns are probably well baked in to the nominal yields. Good point, Doc, but expectations for future inflation can change rather abruptly. The following is a Vanguard p...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15869

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

On a slightly different subject, ST TIPS are in my opinion a good place to hide out to avoid negative bond negative returns in an environment of increasing rates and increasing inflation. Duration risk can be a problem in such an environment. The yield curve continues to flatten and you aren't getti...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Hustle Movie
Replies: 33
Views: 4084

Re: China Hustle Movie

Jim Chanos, the hedge fund manager who correctly called Enron's collapse before it happened, has been calling for the collapse of China since 2009. He predicted the collapse would be worse than the US financial crisis in 2007-9 and shorted China vigorously. He has lost many millions shorting Alibaba...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retired Ins. executives opinion on Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 8
Views: 1977

Re: Retired Ins. executives opinion on Whole Life Insurance

nedsaid wrote: My understanding is that there are cases where Whole Life makes sense, particularly with Estate Planning. People will use Whole Life and other such insurance products as a tax shelter. Variable Universal Life and Variable Annuities come to mind. Might make sense for certain high net w...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7939

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

jalbert wrote: So do you use intermediate TIPs then? What is the expected real yield of bonds you invest in? The Vanguard TIPS fund is an intermediate term fund with an average duration of 7.5 yrs. It's real yield is 0.35% which with the current inflation adjustment equates to a nominal return of a...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 7939

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

We're all different people in different circumstances and it would be strange indeed if all of agreed with grok's or with my retirement plan. I will merely relate my own retirement plan with no value judgement at all about whether it is right for anyone else. I retired 20.5 years ago at age 50 and h...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"
Replies: 31
Views: 3047

Re: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"

Thanks for this thoughtful posting, stlutz. I much enjoyed reading your insightful post and the articles listed, especially Mr. Wiggins article: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/a ... egist-sick In it Wiggins takes a hard look and skeptical look at factors. As for the size factor, it turns out ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 10929

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

It's not just philosophicaleconomics that makes such predictions. Bogle, Vanguard, Swedroe, Bernstein, Arnott, Grantham and others who are experienced students of the market and sound number crunchers are making similar or even worse projections of future returns of US stocks and bonds. Those who di...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 3075

Re: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

The following are the sources of the 3% advisor alpha in the Vanguard paper. Cost-effective implementation (expense ratios) 40 bps Rebalancing 35 bps Behavioral coaching 150 bps Asset location 0 to 75 bps Spending strategy (withdrawal order) 0 to 110 bps Total-return versus income investing > 0 bps ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 152
Views: 10929

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Very interesting article, thanks for posting, getrichslowly. Although predicting anything about the market's future is prone to error, I tend to accept the basic premise that, in spite of, and perhaps partially because of, our past exuberant performance, future US equity returns over the next decade...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6975

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

I don't know whether over the long term rates are going to go up, down, or remain stable. I do expect them to go up somewhat in the short term, as they already have largely due to the FED. For decades until recently the pressure on rates has been to the downside. What is different now is that QE is ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1332

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

jalbert wrote; It is interesting that short-term corporate bonds have a significantly higher correlation with stocks than intermediate corporates. Shortening corporate bond duration in a stock and bond portfolio may in fact increase portfolio risk. The effect is presumably caused by having less ter...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6975

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

triceratop wrote: Excellent post as always Garland, but I have one minor quibble: to my knowledge the Fed has only announced that they will no longer reinvest proceeds from maturing treasuries and not that they plan to sell them outright, as a gradual plan to reduce the balance sheet You are right,...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: annuity vs. decumulation: apples to apples comparisons?
Replies: 26
Views: 2127

Re: annuity vs. decumulation: apples to apples comparisons?

Don't mistake nominal monthly income payments from SPIAs for real inflation adjusted income over a long time span. You do not know up front what the cumulative rate of inflation will be over the next 20 or 30 years. Hence unless you get an inflation adjusted annuity you cannot determine the level of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6975

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

One reason why interest rates may go up is simply supply and demand. This year alone we will have a trillion dollar deficit on top of a very high debt/GDP ratio. In fact with the tax cuts and increases in military and domestic spending plus the Fed selling Treasuries to reduce their balance sheet we...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2864

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

Excellent article by Larry, thanks for posting it, Dave. A thoughtful analysis of the factors behind recent volatility and timeless advice about portfolio construction to stay the course through the tough times.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14979

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

David1082b wrote: Corrections have happened almost every year historically, Corrections defined as a 10% drop in stock prices have historically occurred according to Vanguard in 40% of calendar years. There was no correction for example in 2017 when equity volatility was remarkably low and returns ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15869

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

garlandwhizzer wrote: It's essentially impossible to construct a balanced portfolio of quality bonds and broadly based index funds that doesn't produce dramatically better than 1% expected 30 year returns grok87 replied: Thanks for your thoughtful response. I guess i would quibble with your phrase ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15869

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

I have no interest in a LMP because I don't think I can accurately define what my cost of living is going to be 30 years from now. A lot of unexpected things can happen to one's circumstances in 30 years. There are simply too many unforeseen variables that can over such a long time span seriously in...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14979

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

I remember a some Forum posts that mocked Joe Davis's prediction when it came out but that 70% call looks good in retrospect now. Also both Vanguard and Schwab have been cautioning investors for some time that in 2018 volatility was very likely to increase although the VIX had been hanging at histor...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and Inflation
Replies: 8
Views: 637

Re: TIPS and Inflation

It is duration risk rather than inflation risk that may explain why TBM has outperformed TIPS fund this year. TIPS has an average duration of 7.9 years. TBM has an averaged duration of 6.1 years. In an environment of increasing rates, duration risk damages returns whether or not there is increasing ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?
Replies: 8
Views: 1129

Re: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?

It was widely believed by the experts with the Fed raising rates, plus reducing the size of the balance sheet, plus the US experiencing increasingly robust economic growth that the dollar would appreciate. They predicted that it would soon be at parity with the Euro 2 or 3 years ago. In other DM cou...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should we care about inflation?
Replies: 58
Views: 5334

Re: Why should we care about inflation?

JBTX wrote: The problem is if inflation does rear its head, I tend to think there will be hesitation to fight it too aggressively like Volcker did in the 80's. Growth will probably already be lower due to factors above, and with high levels of government debt around the world, a signfiicant rise in...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15869

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

jebmke wrote: I'll get interested again when the 10-year gets up in the 2% range. 1+ I wouldn't touch a 30 year bond instrument of any type now without an expected real yield of 2%. Rates on 10 yr and 30 yr. bonds are going up now and IMO that trend is likely to continue for some time. If you want ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 111
Views: 11561

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Larry states the problem well. Like siamond, I don't believe that alternate investments are the magic bullet that solves the problem. The appropriate mixture of stocks and bonds fitted to my goals and risk tolerance works for me. Volatility does not bother me. That's the nature of the equity beast. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 111
Views: 11561

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horseman Of Your Portfolio

Thanks for posting this excellent article, Dave. I believe Larry states the problem realistically and well. It is not a pretty picture but if we are to plan effectively for our future retirement needs, we need to make realistic assumptions about what that future is likely to be. International divers...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity
Replies: 22
Views: 2890

Re: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity

triceratop wrote: Garland, I don't understand your point about the role of bonds going forward, and the likelihood of such realized excess returns persisting. Robert T achieved 1.6% excess return even after controlling for increased exposure to risk assets. Moreover, Robert T held less in bonds tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing by Yield?
Replies: 4
Views: 445

Re: Rebalancing by Yield?

lack_ey wrote: What matters is the return and the risk. The yield is just a component, and there's not any reason you should balance yields between different asset classes. 1+ You can get in trouble focusing on yield alone rather than total expected return and the risk level necessary to achieve th...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice
Replies: 70
Views: 5336

Re: Why GNMAs Shouldn't Be Your Bond Choice

I think that arguing whether ITT or TBM or GNMA is the only one to own is akin to clerics arguing over how many angels could dance on a pinhead during the middle ages. All 3 are viable choices, so much less volatile than stocks and solid anchors in equity market declines. The differences in yield ar...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity
Replies: 22
Views: 2890

Re: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity

Robert T wrote: My tilted portfolio obviously had higher risk than the ‘market portfolio’, but interestingly here is a comparison with a 100% global stock portfolio (MSCI All Cap World Stock Index), together with a DFA ‘Balanced’ portfolio. 2003-2017: Annualized return (%) / Standard Deviation / Ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 3108

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:08 pm 1.4% vs 2.8%, you get double the yield for a modest increase in risk. Many of us prefer this for a safe investment. Remember inflation, that 1.4% is a guaranteed loss after inflation. I for one only use highly safe things like CDs for an emergency fund. For...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity
Replies: 22
Views: 2890

Re: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity

There is no doubt that factor investing is gaining in popularity. This may not be such a good thing for factor investing returns going forward. I found it interesting that Cliff Asness, who is knowledgeable, brilliant, and honest, wrote that the market factor is his favorite factor. Other factors me...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developed vs Emerging Markets
Replies: 12
Views: 1241

Re: Developed vs Emerging Markets

I'm 50 EM/50 DM. No problem with doing it cap weight but I believe that EM will offer greater diversification benefit to US equity and also greater expected long term returns than DM. EM have been more volatile historically but I tolerate volatility well. Experts disagree on these issues. Each to hi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 8305

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

Thanks for the link to Greenspan's interview, Siamond. I think his concern about rising debt levels is a valid concern and agree with Siamond that he made no call for imminent disaster in the near future. Massive levels of new debt stimulates the economy short term but it raises the risk for both st...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 8305

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

Just to clarify for those who long for a protracted period of rising interest rates, apparently thinking it will be good for bond returns. That works only if inflation doesn't play a role which historically it usually does. The following demonstrates the difference between a bond bull market and a b...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 8305

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

stultz wrote: People talk about a 35 year bull market in bonds the dates back to the late 80s because interest rates have mostly gone down since then. That's not really true. Bond returns would have been much higher had rates stayed at 8 or 10% the entire time. Lower rates hurt your returns; they d...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 95
Views: 7430

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

Alexa9 wrote: There is the complaint that the offerings in small value funds are neither small or valuey enough to achieve maximum exposure to the premiums. Just wait for my super value microcap fund. There is such a fund, Guggenheim's S&P Small Cap Pure Value ETF, RZV. It is dominated by microcaps...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?
Replies: 34
Views: 3491

Re: How did you guys do in 1966 - 1980?

Investing was like struggling to sail into a strong headwind. No asset classes were spared in real terms in stagflation. There was no asset class that offered significant positive real returns as inflation climbed to 15% and economic growth in real terms was stagnant. In the Great Depression you cou...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 7279

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

When I first started the video presentation I turned it off quickly realizing the kid speaking knew nothing. Now that I went back and listened to it in total, I see the whole thing is a joke which explains why a conservative investor like Bobcat2 endorsed it. My bad. Anyway we're all in agreement. B...