Search found 1512 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 14223

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Rapporteur, if you are certain you can emotionally tolerate a very severe decline in you asset base and stick with 100% stocks through thick and thin, it will likely maximize long term returns. Few of us can do that and many who believe they can discover during the depths a severe equity decline tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 273
Views: 36607

Re: Retreat to cash

The question of course: Is the big run-up in stocks after Trump's election (which was anticipated to have the opposite result) a harbinger of the future or yet another example of market noise and over-reaction based on an imagined economic future. I admit I don't know, but if I were forced to bet (I...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market
Replies: 16
Views: 4144

Re: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market

nedsaid wrote:
Probably most investors today have only seen interest rates fall and it doesn't occur to them that interest rates can have a secular trend upward as well as down.


1+

We are always prepared for the last war, rarely for the next one.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market
Replies: 16
Views: 4144

Re: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market

I think Malkiel's main point is not that bonds are bad that but a steady 40% allocation to bonds which has worked well in the past may not work well in the future. We have been in a 30+ year bull market in bonds, the greatest bond bull in US history, and it has been accompanied by ever decreasing in...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3507

Re: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing

Larry wrote in response to my questions:
Hope that is helpful
Larry


A very helpful post with keen insight as usual.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3507

Re: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing

Larry wrote: FWIW, your assumption on 1999 is off. Here are returns 1927-99 LG 10.7 LV 12 SG 10.4 SV 14.3 Sorry for the mistake, Larry, and thanks for pointing it out. I'm getting old and my memory of the Telltale Chart was inaccurate. Next time I'll look it up before I speak. I would like to bring...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 242
Views: 40182

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I was very positive on EM at least until I saw the GS piece. GS warned of a serious decline in gold and PME in 2/2016 and reiterated it in 7/2016. <http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-07-22/Goldman-Sachs-Calls-For-1-000-Gold.html> Their initial call was made almost exactly when the price of gold and PME ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3507

Re: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing

privatefarmer wrote: Larry - I apologize if this is in your book (I am currently in the middle of the newest one), but what factor premium would you expect after one has already maxed out the beta/small/value factors? If one were to add additional factors beyond these three (ie momentum, profitabil...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?
Replies: 46
Views: 7119

Re: Global bonds suffer worst monthly meltdown, cause for concern?

The last month's activity in the bond market is IMHO, more noise than signal. The good news about bonds is that even when they have a "meltdown," losses are modest. For most of us who wish to sleep at night, bonds are an essential portfolio ingredient. Personally, I think it unwise to flee...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio for retirement
Replies: 79
Views: 11199

Re: Three fund portfolio for retirement

Erwin wrote: What is simply being proposed here is replacing the total bond index fund for TIPS. But the total bond index fund is currently yielding(SEC yield) a bit over 2%. That seems to me not much more than the expected inflation. If I am right, either way you have the same problem, except that...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 157
Views: 14826

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

When it comes to stature in the financial community and furthering the financial health of individual investors, comparing Merriman to Bogle is like comparing a dwarf (Merriman) to a giant (Bogle). As for factor, specifically SCV, investing versus cap weight indexes there is no doubt that based on c...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three fund portfolio for retirement
Replies: 79
Views: 11199

Re: Three fund portfolio for retirement

Taylor wrote: Bogleheads: The big unknown costs in retirement are medical costs which can often exceed $100,000 (I already know). The average lifetime retirement health care premium costs for a 65-year-old healthy couple retiring this year and covered by Medicare Parts B, D, and a supplemental insu...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 31
Views: 7415

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

In my experience calling a top or a bottom to any market at any time is exceptionally difficult. It becomes slightly less hazardous when a given market is at an all time high or an all time low, hopefully with valuation metrics several standard deviations away from the mean, like bonds in 1982 and s...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Where are you going for income?
Replies: 102
Views: 16949

Re: Retirees: Where are you going for income?

This is a bit off topic (sorry) but I'm retired and I prefer a total return approach rather than an income focused approach. Income producing assets are currently richly priced due to their popularity and hence produce paltry levels of income relative to historical standards. REITS produced 9%+ yiel...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A With Jack Bogle: ‘We’re in the Middle of a Revolution’
Replies: 26
Views: 4534

Re: Q&A With Jack Bogle: ‘We’re in the Middle of a Revolution’

No matter how old Jack is or how old he looks, he comes off brighter, sharper, and more on target than anyone who ever interviews him. It never fails to lift my spirits when I read his comments and realize that a giant such as he chooses to spend his time and focus on improving investing results for...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Technologies - Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
Replies: 54
Views: 6227

Re: Renaissance Technologies - Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other

matjen wrote: Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other The Medallion Fund, an employees-only offering for the quants at Renaissance Technologies, is the blackest box in all of finance. I believe that a smallish group of very sophisticated investors can substantially outperform the market as long ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 9728

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

The chart in longinvest's post shows real inflation adjusted returns on a 5 year duration bond portfolio and stock portfolio over the 16 years from 1966 - 1981. Both were negative in real returns over the 16 year time span. Frankly I don't find it very reassuring that in a moderate/severe inflationa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does a bond bear market look like?
Replies: 91
Views: 9728

Re: What does a bond bear market look like?

Wade Pfau's table of the worst bond markets gives us caution. It is important to remember that the results are listed in the kind of dollars that count, real inflation adjusted returns. When you go into a period of ever increasing inflation over multiple decades, bond yields tend to lag increases in...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 2378

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

columbia wrote: Do the higher yield bonds and (large cap) value aspects explain some of the success of the Wellesley Income fund in the past? Over the last 9 years of ever lower yielding bonds that produced all time record lows in yields, many income starved investors and funds increased bond risk ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 20, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 2378

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

Grok87 makes a good point. During inflationary environments TIPS and high yield are expected to outperform other bond categories while SCV is expected to outperform in the equity space. Commodities also may benefit relative to other equity assets in an inflationary environment. Before we go running ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Investor Questionnaire recommends 100% stocks!
Replies: 56
Views: 5644

Re: Vanguard Investor Questionnaire recommends 100% stocks!

I am not surprised by Vanguard's recommendation and, if you answered the questions honestly, I agree with a 100% stock allocation. There are individuals who can tolerate market volatility and who do not need to sell investment assets for a multiple decades, and for those few 100% stock allocations s...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AARP annuity; is it a scam?
Replies: 48
Views: 14761

Re: AARP annuity; is it a scam?

ObliviousInvestor wrote: It's somewhat more complicated than that. A portion of each annuity payment is considered to be return of principal and is therefore not taxable. IRS Publication 939 has more info: m Certainly true. On the other hand if one invests a lump sum into an investment portfolio of...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why patience and discipline are key to investing, it's temperament not intellect
Replies: 38
Views: 5723

Re: Why patience and discipline are key to investing, it's temperament not intellect

Larry wrote: So example might be that instead of a Vanguard TSM 60% and a Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury fund 40%, you might be 40% DFA SV or Bridgeway SV or something similar and 60% Intermediate Treasury. The first portfolio loads on beta 0.6 (1x 60%) while the second loads about .4 (bit hig...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barbell strategies?
Replies: 14
Views: 2295

Re: Barbell strategies?

The concept of combining a high percentage of the safest bonds (usually short term Treasuries) with a low/modest percentage of assets with the highest expected returns (EM, aggressive factor approaches) is exactly what the Larry portfolio does. Med Faber backtested numerous portfolio allocation styl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just don't panic
Replies: 61
Views: 9760

Re: Just don't panic

Just don't panic. I think that says it all in terms of what to do right now for those of us who take a long term investing view. The futility of changing portfolio allocations based on what one expects in the near future is demonstrated clearly by the apparent total surprise of this election in whic...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Interest Rates: Opportunities Missed?
Replies: 14
Views: 2398

Re: Low Interest Rates: Opportunities Missed?

Even at low interest rates buying stock on margin is a two edged sword: increased opportunity, increased risk. When you borrow at 2% to invest, it sounds compelling on paper, but it's important to keep in mind that the interest payments are fixed and ongoing. On the other hand the equity investment ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle and the Presidential Medal of Freedom"
Replies: 24
Views: 3452

Re: "Jack Bogle and the Presidential Medal of Freedom"

I just emailed the President for Jack Bogle. He richly deserves the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's Total Stock Return Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 3941

Re: Bogle's Total Stock Return Chart

kmok corrected my post: Incorrect. Dividends have no impact on current year GAAP earnings, period. Dividends does reduced retained earnings, but retained earnings is basically accumulation of historical earnings less dividends and other less common activities such as repurchase of common stock. Tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 28, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's Total Stock Return Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 3941

Re: Bogle's Total Stock Return Chart

GuitarXM wrote: Isn't this double counting the dividends, because the earnings figure already includes the dividends? Dividends are subtracted from corporate income as a business cost before earnings are calculated. Therefore dividends paid out to shareholders have an accounting effect of reducing ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future technology and future inflation
Replies: 9
Views: 1210

Re: Future technology and future inflation

The problem with the ever increasing pace of technological advances is that: 1) It creates a few very high paying jobs for highly skilled workers, those with high levels of education and/or technical training who design, manufacture and market these labor saving devices. 2) It destroys many jobs for...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bill Bernstein Books
Replies: 40
Views: 4215

Re: Dr. Bill Bernstein Books

Rational Expectations is a favorite of mine. Bill writes books, it seems to me, not merely to make money but to impart knowledge and wisdom about the markets that he has gleaned from a long and distinguished investing career. He presents the historical data, analyzes it, and draws logical non-emotio...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the interest rates rise, won't the bond prices go down?
Replies: 22
Views: 3089

Re: If the interest rates rise, won't the bond prices go down?

The biggest risk to bonds in my view is not the Fed's expected snail-like pace of minuscule (0.25%) rises in interest rates. That is a tempest in a teapot. Bonds will in time recover nicely from that. The Fed can exert some control on short term rates, but has much less control on long term rates wh...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 21, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 34450

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Great article, Larry, thanks for posting. I completely agree that INTL diversification is likely to pay off in the future. I believe that INTL and EM in particular are very likely to outperform US including US SCV, US MOM, and US multi-factor funds in the future. Much discussion occurs in this Forum...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 20, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber article links
Replies: 6
Views: 974

Re: Meb Faber article links

I clicked on Meb Faber's article and thought it was interesting and informative. Thanks for posting. Mebane Faber examines many asset allocation models (including Larry's, El Arian's, Swenson's, 60/40, SCV tilt, Buffett's 90/10, etc.,) with long term backtesting (40+ yrs.) looking at returns, volati...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?
Replies: 32
Views: 2913

Re: Can gold and real estate grow in real terms in the very long run?

Where there are no building constraints on creation of new residential real estate, the average appreciation is expected to be, net of costs such as real estate taxes, maintenance, etc, about the inflation rate long term as long as demand doesn't decrease. If demand decreases--plants close, jobs dis...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover
Replies: 29
Views: 3282

Re: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover

in_reality wrote: Why is someone who only holds the TSM defined as a passive investor? They have made an active choice to not hold the market. AlohaJoe replied: Because that's how Sharpe defines it in his paper? He's pretty explicit about it. in_reality replied: Yeah I know. What I don't understand...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover
Replies: 29
Views: 3282

Re: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover

Sharpe's point is really very simple and it relates primarily to the king of indexes in my view, TSM. If the passive investor holds a market weighted TSM portfolio, all other active/factor investors combined must by definition hold in aggregate a market weighted portfolio. If you subtract a market w...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover
Replies: 29
Views: 3282

Re: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover

How very strange that two who make their livelihood from selling non-market weighted indexes should find fault with Bill Sharpe's "The Arithmetic of Active Management." Certainly with some indexes, one can argue that turnover, being added to or subtracted from the index, may create frictio...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?
Replies: 66
Views: 6775

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?

The fact that there is so much interest aroused by a 0.6% real inflation adjusted yield over a 30 year duration says a lot about where investor sentiment lies now. We're willing to settle for a piddling long term return if inflation risk is removed from the equation and we're guaranteed to get the m...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?
Replies: 66
Views: 6775

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction: Announced 10/13: yield 0.6%?

30 years carries a lot of duration risk to principle for a 0.6% real return even if principle keeps up with inflation. If in ten or twenty years TIPS are yielding 2+% real (which 10 yr. TIPS did in the early 2000s), who will want to lock up long term money for 0.6% real yield? Significant decline in...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - Indexing Is Capitalism at Its Best
Replies: 8
Views: 1792

Re: Asness - Indexing Is Capitalism at Its Best

Cliff Asness is a very knowledgeable and, I believe, well meaning guy whose comments stick very close to the truth as he sees it. It is to his credit that he lauds indexing rather than stock picking active management and makes the point that indexing, be it cap weight or fundamental, has helped the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bad economic news good for stock market?
Replies: 11
Views: 1368

Re: bad economic news good for stock market?

Andyrunner wrote: Bad news sells, good news does not, that is why you see so much more bad news. Media companies are in the business to sell ads not inform people. That is my cynical view on the media. 1+ I believe Andyrunner's view of the media is realistic and accurate. Sometimes it's appropriate...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bad economic news good for stock market?
Replies: 11
Views: 1368

Re: bad economic news good for stock market?

Financial firms and the financial media are obsessed with the very short term daily or even hourly market news and market variations. Why is the market going up (or down) today? What piece of news drives these short term changes? What will the FED do next? For those with a long time horizon, I think...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing early..!
Replies: 31
Views: 2373

Re: Investing early is better. Myth debunked!

The earlier you start investing, the better you long term outcome. That is not a myth. It has been a historical fact in the US if the time frame is at least several decades long. If you invest some fixed amount from your salary every month, even if it is a small amount, over a long period of several...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage Success Stories
Replies: 52
Views: 5823

Re: Leverage Success Stories

Leverage success stories certainly exist. So do leverage failure stories. Bankruptcy court is a good place to find leverage failure stories especially with high levels of leverage. I personally know of folks who were once got rich off real estate investing but got over leveraged into bubble real est...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the dividend yield of VWRD, 2% or nearly 3%?
Replies: 5
Views: 1168

Re: What is the dividend yield of VWRD, 2% or nearly 3%?

Much of the dividend yield of VWRD is not in dollars but in foreign currencies. Therefore the problem may be with translating foreign dividends in foreign currencies into dollars which brings currency market fluctuations into the picture. Currencies go up and down relative to the dollar, sometimes q...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees Saying No To The Market
Replies: 57
Views: 8386

Re: Retirees Saying No To The Market

Most of those at or close to retirement whom I personally know are much more heavily invested in real estate than in stocks and bonds. I believe that only a minority of potential investors have sufficient market knowledge background and, more importantly, are emotionally equipped to deal with the up...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Inflation Protection to a Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1836

Re: Adding Inflation Protection to a Portfolio

There are ways to hedge inflation risk but not insure against it. Insuring against it requires TIPS or inflation adjusted annuities but neither of them offer any significant expected positive real return going forward from here. Bernstein has made the point that international diversification and com...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Damodaran: CAPE is no-good horrible & a market timing spreadsheet
Replies: 25
Views: 3247

Re: Damodaran: CAPE is no-good horrible & a market timing spreadsheet

The fact that CAPE 10 looks high now suggests but does not prove that equity returns over the next decade will be lower than in the long term historical past. The fact that ratios of earnings yields between bonds or cash on the one hand and CAPE 10 on the other look normal does not imply that equiti...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does Wealthfront Allocate So Much To Emerging Markets?
Replies: 9
Views: 1539

Re: Why Does Wealthfront Allocate So Much To Emerging Markets?

I believe that Burton Malkiel is not alone in suggesting an overweight of EM in current market conditions. Both GMO (Jeremy Grantham) and Research Affiliates (Rob Arnott) are projecting much higher returns for EM equities over the next decade than for US equities. That is why, I believe, they recomm...