Search found 1397 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BREXIT - Whats the big deal?
Replies: 108
Views: 11728

Re: BREXIT - Whats the big deal?

Simplegift wrote: Increased nationalism and trade protectionism (i.e., de-globalization) is bound to slow world economic growth even further — which will eventually affect all countries and stock markets, including the United States. Just my two cents. 1+ This is the real long term threat after all...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical analysis
Replies: 6
Views: 884

Technical analysis

Headline article on Marketwatch website from yesterday before the Brexit vote was counted: ‘Bollinger Bands’ suggest the stock market is ready to break out in a big way Well, on the positive side, it did break out in a big way. Only problem is that it went in the opposite direction of what this tech...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 118
Views: 11822

Re: International stocks in free fall

I am neither buying nor selling, staying put. I have a large INTL allocation which is getting killed today but I'll hold onto it. It will take several years for the dust to settle from this event. New trade deals between Britain and EU have to be negotiated and then there is a real possibility that ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 213
Views: 24261

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

jjface wrote in response to my point that Buffett didn't tilt to small or to value in his wife's portfolio: That argument makes no sense. You can turn that around and say why doesn't he put all his money in the S&P 500 and 10% short term treasuries just as easily. He obviously chose this for hi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 213
Views: 24261

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

It is important to remember that the most famous value investor alive today, perhaps the most famous investor alive today, chose for his wife's personal investment portfolio 90% S&P 500, 10% Short Term Treasuries. No value tilt, no small cap at all. He indicates that he feels this portfolio will...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing
Replies: 9
Views: 1103

Re: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing

Simplegift wrote: In short, how much of this work is a quest for truth, and how much is a quest for increased assets-under-management? 1+ This is an important question. Many robust salaries are created by financial/investment research and the products they spawn. I don't believe that because Arnott...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios
Replies: 138
Views: 19190

Re: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios

Joe Tomlinson authored the article about the safety of annuities. He was previously Vice President in charge of annuities at John Hancock. I do not know whether or not the fact that he has benefited from annuity sales has colors his vision about their long term safety. His article seems to be fair b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6605

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Great post, Simplegift, as usual. I find it somewhat reassuring and at times like this reassurance is nice. Dividends put money directly in the pockets of investors. Buybacks work by reducing share number and therefore (as long as profits are constant) having a positive effect on PE ratios and tendi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 18, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Vs Stock Market
Replies: 22
Views: 2260

Re: Real Estate Vs Stock Market

Bam! wrote: My point, however, was that even with this awful deal at risk of being cash flow negative, you'd still beat a 8% compounding stock market investment because of RE leverage. Sure there are additional costs, such as taxes, maintenance, management. But the benefits of leverage far outweigh...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 17, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 9335

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

in response to my post, dkturner wrote: Your information on bond returns in Graham's day is incorrect. From 1929 to 1972 the inflation adjusted (real) total return on 10 year Treasuries was only 6/10 of 1% per year. Real equity returns were 6.1% per year. From 1973 to 2015 the 10 year Treasury retu...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 17, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people buy annuities?
Replies: 125
Views: 17332

Re: Why do people buy annuities?

Annuities achieve exactly what they are designed to do: to provide a sense of security for the those who buy them and, importantly, to provide considerable profits for those who design, market, and sell them. On the buy side, it's a question of how much are you willing to pay for a certain level of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 9335

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

nisi wrote: I've been reading Benjamin Graham's 1973 The Intelligent Investor and finding it fascinating. There is a wide gulf in what bonds were yielding in Ben Graham's time and now. Back then, intermediate term quality bonds provided both significant real inflation adjusted positive yields plus ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 14, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expected Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 3025

Re: Future Market Expected Returns

NMJack makes some good points: Energy is cheap and plentiful. There is a seemingly endless source of cheap immigrant labor. Inflation is zero. The cost of money is zero. Commodities are cheap and plentiful. Growing populations around the world are demanding more goods and services. The cold war is o...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 11, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury low yield
Replies: 45
Views: 4466

Re: 10 Year Treasury low yield

nedsaid wrote: So if people have limited capacity to borrow more and have slow to negative wage growth, it is not hard to imagine why economic growth has been slow. Though I don't agree with certain economic policies being implemented now, I also believe that there are larger issues out there. No m...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury low yield
Replies: 45
Views: 4466

Re: 10 Year Treasury low yield

skepticalobserver responded to my post suggesting that Treasuries are currently yielding higher than CPI inflation. I hear this sort of thing all the time, particular from equity salespeople. Here's the problem: everyday--everyday--I experience a personal inflation rate considerably higher than the...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury low yield
Replies: 45
Views: 4466

Re: 10 Year Treasury low yield

Two points demonstrated by interest rate action in the past several years: First, no one can accurately predict the direction of interest rates or the speed of interest rate changes. Second, I.6% or 1.7%, the current 10 year Treasury rate, while close to historical lows is still in excess of inflati...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Negative interest rates: What they are and what they mean."
Replies: 10
Views: 1971

Re: "Negative interest rates: What they are and what they mean."

Bonds provide two critical things: safety and income. US bonds are in my opinion safer than foreign bonds especially EM bonds not only because they are denominated in our own spending currency but also because our bond markets are deeper, well-regulated, and more transparent than many INTL markets. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 07, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low rates = fewer bonds? active asset allocation?
Replies: 14
Views: 1583

Re: low rates = fewer bonds? active asset allocation?

The point is well made that nominal bond returns are far more predictable than nominal stock returns. We know that quality short or intermediate duration bonds are likely to return their nominal yields over the bond"s duration, which today is close to a zero in real inflation-adjusted return. T...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Capital Market Expectations [video]
Replies: 5
Views: 984

Re: Rob Arnott: Capital Market Expectations [video]

I find this video interesting and thanks for posting it. Rob Arnott is not a snake oil barker but a thoughtful analyst of market history. He relies a great deal in estimating future returns of asset classes on the power of mean reversion and on Shiller PE 10's predictability for subsequent 10 year r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Crowdfunding
Replies: 18
Views: 1800

Re: Equity Crowdfunding

In my opinion penny stocks are an area of the market to stay away from. Sales commissions on these are very high, it is almost impossible to get accurate information about the companies covered in the penny stock area, and those that peddle them tend to be sharks feasting on the uninformed. Check ou...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 05, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Crowdfunding
Replies: 18
Views: 1800

Re: Equity Crowdfunding

boglerocks wrote: As for whether I can beat the market, I refuse to assume that I can't without trying (and sizing my buy-ins appropriately). I wish you the best of luck in this endeavor. Decades ago, when markets were in my opinion less efficient than now, I constantly tried to beat the market wit...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Crowdfunding
Replies: 18
Views: 1800

Re: Equity Crowdfunding

This is a quote directly from FundersClub webpage: FundersClub is the only online startup investing platform to regularly report returns. I don't know much about crowdfunding but I'll throw in my 2 cents worth. One likely explanation of why other equity crowdfunding entities don't report their resu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross and his June 2016 investment outlook
Replies: 50
Views: 6130

Re: Bill Gross and his June 2016 investment outlook

lack_ey wrote: Not seeing anything particularly earth-shattering there, though admittedly the points about for example the negative nominal yields abroad and fairly flat yield curves here and there have merit. Maybe these and some of the other indicators just point to lower volatility, maybe decent...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 02, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross and his June 2016 investment outlook
Replies: 50
Views: 6130

Bill Gross

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] From Bill's most recent news letter: For over 40 years, asset returns and alpha generation from penthouse investment managers have been materially aided by declines in interest rates, trade globalization, and an enormous expansion of credit – t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 02, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 898
Views: 177755

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund? No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 02, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for and against holding international fund
Replies: 18
Views: 2194

Re: Argument for and against holding international fund

US equities have outperformed INTL equities over the last 20 years and also over the very long term since 1900. Does that mean this outperformance will continue? The answer to that question is a definite maybe, maybe not. Regardless of what the past relative performance of US versus INTL tells us, t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is S&P 500 P/E ratio really at 24?
Replies: 18
Views: 3539

Re: Is S&P 500 P/E ratio really at 24?

I am not an accountant but it seems to me that earnings figures and hence PE ratios like everything else in accounting can be manipulated. First of all as JoMoney points out, there is the difference between past 12 months earnings and the next 12 months or next year's estimated earnings. The next tw...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Potholes
Replies: 5
Views: 1168

Re: Wall Street Potholes

Thanks for this excellent post, Larry. The remarkable thing is how difficult it is to stop these amoral practices in the financial industry. Scamming and deceptive advertising will continue until the clients who provide the money, the investors themselves, get educated about financial markets and do...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 30, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JD Mellberg 8% Lifetime Return Claim - Legitimate?
Replies: 43
Views: 26021

Re: JD Mellberg 8% Lifetime Return Claim - Legitimate?

This is simple. There is no way that anyone can guarantee a 8% return on invested money and return of principal for a significant time period in the current environment. The numbers simply don't work. Either you lose or JD Mellberg does and goes out of business in which case its guarantees disappear...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 29, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplegift and Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 20
Views: 2923

Simplegift and Dr. Bernstein

I would like to express my thanks to Simplegift and to Dr. Bernstein for their posts, especially their recent posts which I find enlightening and thought provoking. Their efforts to help the rest of us get a deeper understanding of financial markets are much appreciated by me and, I suspect, many ot...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 29, 2016 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 4 — Stocks Always Beat Bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 3552

Re: Classic Bernstein 4 — Stocks Always Beat Bonds?

jalbert wrote: Are the current expected real returns of equities at historic lows, or is it just expected nominal returns? My understanding is that both nominal and real expected returns in the foreseeable future, say the next 5 - 10 years, will be lower than historical averages but not the histori...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 28, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth Taking?
Replies: 20
Views: 2812

Re: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth It?

Totally agree on this good point. I bought Vanguard's HYB fund (which avoids the worst of junk bonds) during the worst of the collapse in 2008-9 at which time the spread to Treasuries of similar maturities was greater than 11%. I sold some of my GNMA fund at the time which had held up beautifully du...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 25, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 59
Views: 6417

Re: Why do we believe in the market?

bjr89 wrote: Something that seems to elude many people is that stocks fell almost 90% from peak to trough due to the Great Depression, and they didn't recover to the previous high until 1954. There is no reason this couldn't happen again -- and it could take longer to recover, or never recover at a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 25, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience makes perfect
Replies: 7
Views: 1469

Re: Patience makes perfect

SGENX, as others have stated, has a high cost structure (5% load, 1.11% expense ratio) and at least for me is not an investment option. It's philosophy: patience, discipline, and insight in value investing is essentially the same strategy that the Oracle of Omaha has used and is a solid one. In succ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 23, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Perils of Historical Asset Returns
Replies: 19
Views: 2327

Re: The Perils of Historical Asset Returns

Great post, Simplegift. I tend to agree with the premise that although the future is not predictable there are basic macroeconomic factors present today which suggest but do not guarantee lower than historical equity, bond, and real asset returns going forward for perhaps a decade or more. I don't b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 23, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 59
Views: 6417

Re: Why do we believe in the market?

notsobright wrote: In the end, aren't we all just gambling since we don't know for certain what the market will be like? We're all assuming that the market will have positive returns over the course of our lifetimes. Is that a safe assumption? The only thing that you know with certainty about the f...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 21, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 2830

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

callguy1 wrote: So they recommended upping the real assets/alternatives bucket focusing on high 8%+ dividends, since those will 1) keep up with inflation and 2) produce some real return from the income even if there's 20 years of stagnation. Question: where do they find 8%+ dividends these days? I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 05, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting David Swensen Lazy Porfolio against Three Fund
Replies: 57
Views: 10050

Re: Backtesting David Swensen Lazy Porfolio against Three Fund

nisi wrote: 5) The argument for the three-fund portfolio is not "it's better." The argument is that there's no way to be sure anything else is better, and that investors who focus on "the best" instead of "good enough" are likely to have trouble staying the course beca...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 03, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P2P Real Estate Investing
Replies: 8
Views: 2714

Re: P2P Real Estate Investing

Direct quote from the article referred to above: But because you’re not competing in the well-developed 30-year residential mortgage market, you can expect to collect annual interest in the 7-10% range, rather than the 3-4% that mortgage securities pay their owners. In current market conditions any...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 03, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 87
Views: 10677

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

Bernanke's article on "helicopter money" is very enlightening for those interested in its theory which suggests potential positive effects when central banks have run out of all other alternatives to stimulate growth and fight deflation. The problem, he suggests, is in the exact details of...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 01, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 1 — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon
Replies: 47
Views: 8253

Re: Classic Bernstein — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon

Simplegift wrote: a) Since the best performing asset classes (or factors) can’t be known in advance, it’s impossible to specify exactly what the best asset allocation will be in the coming decades. As long-term investors, all we can do is choose a portfolio allocation that meets our expected return...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 01, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?
Replies: 20
Views: 2892

Re: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?

Given a certain time period it is incredibly easy on backtesting to create a portfolio with the exact mixture of beta, small, value, momentum, etc., to maximize returns, get rid of negative alpha, and reduce portfolio volatility sufficiently to create a higher Sharpe ratio. Anyone moderately accompl...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major stock shareholder effect
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Major stock shareholder effect

I do not buy or sell individual stocks any more. I've been that route many years ago and learned that for most of us, it is a losing proposition. But if I did...I would not be inclined to sell any of my APPL position because Icahn did. Rather I would be more inclined to buy it now. Nothing has chang...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 8190

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

There are several things that make our age different from prior eras and therefore cast some doubt on the reliability of achieving historical rates of return going forward. The biggest two factors in the US (and all developed economies) are debt and demographics. Ultimately this, combined with curre...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 8190

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

Robert T wrote: Start saving early, have an equity orientation (Swensen), diversify globally, keep costs low, have realistic expectations (and reduce 'behavioral mistakes'). Great post, Robert T. This is in my opinion the take home message. Given current circumstances (as well as any circumstances a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 87
Views: 10677

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

It seems to me the goal of QE is to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates beyond what can be achieved with standard monetary policy. In theory lower interest rates should stimulate borrowing by individuals and corporations which then spend the money and stimulate economic activity. This e...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart-Beta War Rages On as Cliff Asness Slams Pimco Star's Paper
Replies: 6
Views: 1093

Re: Smart-Beta War Rages On as Cliff Asness Slams Pimco Star's Paper

Time will tell who's right and who's wrong in this debate. Or perhaps both the EM dominated portfolio of Arnott based on current attractive valuations and the multi-factor portfolio of Asness will underperform a simple low cost TSM + TISM fund portfolio in the long run. Asness and Arnott are bright,...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)
Replies: 13
Views: 1453

Re: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)

nedsaid wrote: Garland, I actually would consider investing in such a fund. I have three difficulties in investing in such funds. First, my eyes glaze over when I read the posts explaining how these things work. Second, I have to trust that the folks who run such funds actually know what they are d...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's Echoes of 1999: The Tech Bubble and the "Asian Flu"
Replies: 8
Views: 1248

Re: Arnott's Echoes of 1999: The Tech Bubble and the "Asian Flu"

Very good and insightful posts, Simplegift, as usual for you. After an absence of posting for a time, it's nice to have you back, Todd.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)
Replies: 13
Views: 1453

Re: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)

The first paragraph of the article: So far, the funds in Morningstar’s new multi-alternative category have mainly proved to be an alternative to making actual money. To date, these poor-man’s hedge funds have eked out a meager 1.6% five-year annualized return, compared with 11.6% for stocks and 3.7%...

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