Search found 1332 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foot Locker stock up ~2% after announcement of inclusion in S&P 500. Contradiction of EMH?
Replies: 15
Views: 1595

Re: Foot Locker stock up ~2% after announcement of inclusion in S&P 500. Contradiction of EMH?

One way to overcome the index reconstitution market inefficiency (which is a very small factor anyway in the big picture) is to use TSM as your index. The stock that is announced to go into the S&P 500 index goes one way in price, up or down, and the one omitted from the index goes the other way...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting stock market returns accurately?
Replies: 52
Views: 3623

Re: Predicting stock market returns accurately?

Interesting piece. This method of forecasting relies primarily on sentiment, the periodic swings between collective investor optimism (typically when investors increase stock allocation relative to alternatives like bonds and cash) and collective investor pessimism in which the opposite occurs. It p...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article by Michael Kitces makes the case that gov. bonds are a better diversifier than corporates (against the S&P500)
Replies: 34
Views: 3511

Re: Article by Michael Kitces makes the case that gov. bonds are a better diversifier than corporates (against the S&P50

I believe that in general the bond market is more efficient in asset pricing than the stock market. That means that there are few, if any, exploitable areas in the bond market where you get more long term return without a commensurate increase in risk. The spectrum from T Bills (least risk, least re...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 7461

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

Dirghatamas wrote: So, in total if buybacks allow me to defer taxes, my total taxation would go from 37% down to 15% or perhaps even 0%. These are not small changes, they are first order shifts. Buybacks are perfect because they give you potential cash, tax free at first and let you convert it to a...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative yields for 29% of Developed Market Sovereign Debt
Replies: 13
Views: 1619

Re: Negative yields for 29% of Developed Market Sovereign Debt

nisi wrote: In fact, I did the math once and calculated that, based only on mortality data and mortality credits, an insurance company should be capable of providing a life annuity that pays a 75-year-old 8% of the premium every year 8% return sounds good but it's important to remember that the 75 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting new study on trading of active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1010

Re: Interesting new study on trading of active funds

Interesting post, Larry, thanks. I find herding to be a plausible explanation for the failure of trading in aggregate to increase investor return. Many active traders pursue the same investment themes at the same time and overgraze the available alpha. It certainly makes sense. One question in my mi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 7461

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

I haven't read the entire thread so please excuse me if someone has written this before. As to the question of taxes, dividends are taxable currently at the level of long term capital gains. So you pay taxes on your annual dividends but this also decreases the cost basis of your existing shares by a...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you time premiums?
Replies: 18
Views: 2035

Re: Can you time premiums?

Interesting article. Market timing is a tricky business seems to be the bottom line, something that we should all know by now. Clearly there are episodes in the past where in retrospect it seems like a no-brainer to market time and outperform. For example, switching from large cap growth of tech sto...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One boring day in the market, one legendary fund bucks the trend
Replies: 28
Views: 6063

Re: One boring day in the market, one legendary fund bucks the trend

I may be old fashioned but I am pleased that Valeant has crashed and taken with it big some legendary names (Ackman and Sequoia Fund). In general the financial industry's moral compass lies somewhere between amoral and immoral. Valeant is a clearly a case of immoral where greed rules unchecked by an...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Has Beaten DFA and Vanguard (3% annually!) Since 2009 on an Absolute and Risk-Adjusted Basis. HOW?!?
Replies: 33
Views: 4128

Re: RAFI Has Beaten DFA and Vanguard (3% annually!) Since 2009 on an Absolute and Risk-Adjusted Basis. HOW?!?

Larry wrote: DCA can be helpful in supplying a psychological crutch which at least allows people to invest in the face of uncertainty, which is easier for many to do with small amounts than large amounts Do not underestimate the importance of psychological crutches in making market timing moves. To...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 15, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying The Course, or Anchoring?
Replies: 42
Views: 5414

Re: Staying The Course, or Anchoring?

Love Jason Zweig's article. Thanks for the post, Taylor. Broadly based index fund investing is not something that seems initially attractive to the naive inexperienced investor who, prompted by smooth marketing of active funds, thinks, "Why settle for average?" I have been down this path m...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 13, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 39
Views: 8846

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Stock picking doesn't work for most of us, but it sounds like nedsaid has had some very good long term experiences with Plum Creek for example. Nedsaid has a lot of experience in investing, does his research, and has a non-emotional approach which helps a lot. He is not afraid to make well-reasoned ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 13, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less is more [Vanguard blog - 2% economic growth prediction]
Replies: 41
Views: 5595

Re: Less is more

Quark wrote: I just posted a link to a study on the relation between economic growth and stock market returns here That study did in fact show a negative correlation between economic growth and stock returns on a country by country basis. The countries that grew fastest (mostly EM) had the lowest s...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 13, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less is more [Vanguard blog - 2% economic growth prediction]
Replies: 41
Views: 5595

Less is more [Vanguard blog - 2% economic growth prediction]

Joe Davis, Vanguard's chief economist, has posted a new article on the Vanguard website. In it he argues that 2% annual real economic growth is our future, the new normal due to aging demographics, stagnant worker productivity growth, high levels of debt especially personal debt (credit cards and mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My summary of the latest SPIVA report card
Replies: 8
Views: 984

Re: My summary of the latest SPIVA report card

The constant refrain you'll hear on CNBC and other financial media is: "This is a stock picker's market." I've been investing for 30 years and I don't remember a single time when it wasn't a "stock picker's market" according to those who profit from active management. Their dupli...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Monitor Your Portfolio Once This Year, Then Ignore It"
Replies: 53
Views: 7306

Re: "Monitor Your Portfolio Once This Year, Then Ignore It"

This is great advice, but it's hard for me to do.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Precious Metals & Mining Fund up 21% this year. Why aren't other ETFs?
Replies: 48
Views: 1947

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

nedsaid wrote: Postby nedsaid » Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:30 pm Garland, I want to congratulate you on your investment in this fund. You didn't get the timing perfect but you were within a year of the upswing in this fund. Unfortunately, I did not make any investment in precious metal funds. I passed on ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 08, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Precious Metals & Mining Fund up 21% this year. Why aren't other ETFs?
Replies: 48
Views: 1947

Re: VG Precious Metals & Mining Fund up 21% this year. Why aren't other ETFs?

livesoft wrote: Please check your data since the overall market is now UP more than 7% since Jan 19th and US small-cap value is UP about 14%. Even emerging markets small cap is up 15% since Jan 19th. These numbers are not 50%, but they are certainly not negative. Many people would be fine with a 15...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Precious Metals & Mining Fund up 21% this year. Why aren't other ETFs?
Replies: 48
Views: 1947

Re: VG Precious Metals & Mining Fund up 21% this year. Why aren't other ETFs?

Since its low in Jan. 19th 2016, VGPMX has risen more than 50% in less than 2 months even as the overall market has declined. I know of no advisor, fund manager, or market expert who suggested buying VGPMX in mid-January. Sentiment on precious metals equity hit new levels of pessimism among both pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 04, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 223
Views: 34295

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

grap 0013 wrote: BTW, one cannot really start bragging about an EM allocation until we have something like a 100% gain. SFENX has bled ~50% real over the past 5 years. Ouch! I bought DGS yesterday. This ensures that there will be another deep drop in EM prices. Potential buyers of EM equity can be ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 04, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greetings from the cold (value tilt)
Replies: 3
Views: 748

Re: Greetings from the cold (value tilt)

Good post, Robert T, thanks. I actually tend to agree with the message that value has been so beaten up over the last decade and particularly in the last year that finally it now represents true value at least in INTL and especially EM markets. SC EM value is now selling below book value and with a ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at Emerging Markets, recency bias, and diversification
Replies: 32
Views: 4156

Re: A look at Emerging Markets, recency bias, and diversification

Excellent post, Larry, thanks. EMs are one of the very few assists that are still on sale after the worldwide frantic search for safe returns. Many of the weaker hands holding EM have bailed out during their long and deep decline which, ironically, has created an opportunity to rebalance from high v...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China's A, B and H Shares
Replies: 19
Views: 1079

Re: China's A, B and H Shares

Over a significant timespan it is assumed by many that the Chinese government will liberalize their financial policies, that Chinese investors in A shares will learn a bit more about investment fundamentals, and hence that A shares and H shares will tend to move toward a median in valuation and vola...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ritholtz presentation on risk
Replies: 5
Views: 981

Re: Ritholtz presentation on risk

Barry Ritholtz is a true gem in the financial industry, a knowledgeable and experienced investor who tells the simple truth. I much enjoyed this presentation. I think Pogo's message sums it up well: We (investors) have met the enemy and he is us. Too often this is the case with investors whose emoti...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman buy and hold strategy
Replies: 5
Views: 1479

Re: Merriman buy and hold strategy

Frankly I think it's too complicated, 10% allocation to each of 10 funds. Taking withdrawals during the retirement phase or adding regular monthly or yearly contributions during the accumulation phase would be complex, lots of buying and selling, as would rebalancing 10 assets as one goes up and ano...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 18510

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Larry, I was awaiting your post because you have made the point on the Forum a number of times that the SCV premium is likely both a risk and a behavioral story. Nedsaid, an experienced and successful investor, has stated that he believes it to be primarily a behavioral story. There seems to be some...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 18510

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Robert T wrote: On Fama's views on risk and small cap and value premiums I find this interview helpful - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIKO-t4vU6Q Interesting interview, thanks for posting it, Robert T. Fama suggests the SCV premium is primarily a risk story, not a behavioral one. Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: personal savings rate vs the general population
Replies: 69
Views: 9994

Re: personal savings rate vs the general population

From Bill's article: As Arnott and Casscells succinctly conclude, what we have is not a savings crisis, but rather a demographic crisis. We will not be rescued by increased voluntary or enforced savings. The paradox of thrift is an interesting topic in itself, but it is not, as Johno points out, th...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 23, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: personal savings rate vs the general population
Replies: 69
Views: 9994

Re: personal savings rate vs the general population

From Bill Bernstein's article referenced in the original post: In an era when a small number of people lived past sixty-five, society could easily support them for the very few years they survived beyond that point. Now that citizens are routinely living two decades longer, it is simply not mathema...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA life insurance?
Replies: 26
Views: 2653

Re: TIAA life insurance?

I do admit it sounds attractive, almost no way to lose. I'm wondering why more firms don't offer a guaranteed 3% return over the next decade. I am not aware of any others that do. There are some troublesome projections presently of future returns in the US market for both stocks and bonds over the n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA life insurance?
Replies: 26
Views: 2653

Re: TIAA life insurance?

subrosa wrote: There is no way in the current low interest rate, low equity return environment that anyone can guarantee you a 3% total return going forward for 10 years, let alone 4.1% without substantial risk Hi Garladwizzer I disagree. Hi subrosa. I am referring to a 3% real inflation adjusted r...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA life insurance?
Replies: 26
Views: 2653

Re: TIAA life insurance?

There is no way in the current low interest rate, low equity return environment that anyone can guarantee you a 3% total return going forward for 10 years, let alone 4.1% without substantial risk. Either the underlying assets are partially invested in equities (which have risk), or include large all...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of hedge funds on pension plan returns
Replies: 17
Views: 1733

Re: The impact of hedge funds on pension plan returns

Larry wrote: Can it be that hype, hope, marketing and perhaps some free tickets to sporting events and golf outings have triumphed over wisdom and experience? (Note: That’s a rhetorical question.) Nicely put. I personally know of one such under the table kickback for channeling collective money in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 15, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chasing Hot Returns in ‘Smart Beta’ Can Be Dumb- Jason Zweig in WSJ
Replies: 21
Views: 2033

Re: Chasing Hot Returns in ‘Smart Beta’ Can Be Dumb- Jason Zweig in WSJ

The take home message from Rob Arnott's piece is that Low Vol, profitability, and quality are expected to produce no above market return going forward due to their current overvaluations. Value however isn't so expensive according to him and is still expected to produce above market returns largely ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 6565

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Nedsaid, thanks for your kind comments. You are right, I believe, that we're now in a market cycle (stuck in neutral or reverse) when Low Vol gains popularity. VMVFX clearly has outperformed global market indexes since its inception and this alone will draw in investment dollars. I do have concerns ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 6565

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Cap weight index investors tend not to avoid Low Vol funds or efts because they are in a sense factor based. Likewise most factor investors, Larry being a good example, don't like them and prefer other factors. They argue that Low Vol is subsumed by other factors, or that its stocks have become too ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 56
Views: 7824

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

The real problem with central bank negative rates is what it says about the state of the economy. It makes two points. First how difficult it is now for central bankers to stimulate their economies which even after drastic central bank action are either stuck in neutral or growing sluggishly. The se...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 34
Views: 3754

Re: A look at the small cap premium

Robert T wrote: Since inception of the Bridgeway fund in 1997, annualized returns to end December 2015 (over 18 years): Bridgeway Ultra-small co. market [BRSIX] = 10.28%, CRSP10 index = 10.32% Vanguard 500 [VFINX] = 6.09%. BRSIX massively outperformed the S&P 500 from 1997 through 2003, but in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"
Replies: 9
Views: 1494

Re: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"

Goldman Sachs has the reputation for employing the smartest guys in finance. Based on this one must conclude one of two things or perhaps some mixture of the two. First, the smartest guys in the room don't have clue about what the market is going to do at least on a consistent basis. Or, second, per...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Benefit to SCV Tilt?
Replies: 5
Views: 722

Re: Diversification Benefit to SCV Tilt?

Park wrote: It is common to hear a recommendation for a 30-50% stock allocation to foreign stocks. Yet US SCV gave the same diversification benefit, without the currency risk. And foreign stocks are "useless as a hedge against inflation", whereas domestic stocks provide some long term pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Cost Matters Hypothesis"
Replies: 4
Views: 878

Re: "The Cost Matters Hypothesis"

Excellent post, Taylor, thanks. It's a post that all investors should read.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skill vs luck in stock picking
Replies: 38
Views: 3729

Re: Skill vs luck in stock picking

It's not only a question of skill vs luck but also of market cycle dynamics. Value investors do well when value outperforms growth but lag the market when growth outperforms value. These cycles often run for a decade or more in which some combo of large/small, value/growth outperforms usually follow...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 34
Views: 3754

Re: A look at the small cap premium

Frankly I have a certain amount of skepticism about the small cap premium when it is based on backtesting an index. Survival bias (more SC stocks fail and go out of business than LC stocks) is part of the problem. When a SC stock drops out of an index like the Russell 2K, the index itself suffers no...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 5334

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

Oil and all industrial commodity prices are not the drivers but instead are a proxy for global aggregate supply--demand imbalances. For years China's insatiable appetite for commodities pumped up what was called the commodity super cycle, fueled largely with debt induced industrial economic growth. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has growth beaten value recently?
Replies: 10
Views: 1303

Re: Why has growth beaten value recently?

Belliavsky wrote: Why has value been underperforming growth? Here are some speculations: (1) Financial stocks tend to be value stocks, and they underperformed, especially in 2008. (2) Energy stocks tend to be value stocks, and they underperformed in 2015. (3) Value stocks tend to outperform when th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 10507

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Larry wrote: I can tell you that the bull markets of late 90s and from 2003-07 and from 2009-14 allowed many to lower their equity exposure. And changes in valuations can lead to smaller but meaningful changes, giving investors a better chance of achieving their goals with the least amount of risk....
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight index funds
Replies: 75
Views: 6464

Re: Equal weight index funds

longinest wrote: It is cheaper, because total-market index funds are almost always cheaper than other index funds. More tax efficient, because total-market index funds have very low turnover. It is simpler. Changing the risk of the portfolio, as one advances in age and as the portfolio grows, simpl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited
Replies: 28
Views: 5279

Re: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited

Robert T wrote: Is $40,152 materially greater than $25,036? Growth in $1000 of S&P500 Barra/Value vs. S&P500 Barra/Growth: 1975-2002 Is $23,151 materially greater than $13,85? Growth in $1000 of Russell 3000 Value vs. Russell 3000 Growth: 1979-2002 Is $79,570 materially greater than $67,264...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012
Replies: 16
Views: 2257

Re: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012

It will be interesting to see the investment results of the new MSCI Multi-factor ETFs over time. Their strategy sounds compelling in terms of factor exposures but there is sometimes a wide gulf between strategy and outcome. There is no debate that on backtesting with cost-free long-short portfolios...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and factor exposure
Replies: 12
Views: 2013

Re: Buybacks and factor exposure

TTFS as per Robert T's post sounds like an interesting approach and to date in its 3 year life span it has outperformed comparable indexes. The only problem is the 0.99% expense ratio which provides a considerable hurtle to overcome year in and year out relative to low cost indexes. So far it has do...

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