Search found 1780 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.
Replies: 19
Views: 3254

Re: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.

The other side of the coin, a confession: for the first decades of my investing career I was 100% in stocks and REITS, no bonds at all until I had been retired for 5 years. I never sold a single share during any market decline. This allowed me to take full advantage of the greatest bull market in US...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 8278

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

FIREchief wrote: Isn't "buying" inflation protection for only a modest portion of your bond portfolio like buying fire insurance only for a modest portion of your house? If TIPS were my only inflation protection that would be true. As nedsaid pointed out my portfolio is equity heavy, (66 stock/34 b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler
Replies: 6
Views: 977

12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler

Interesting insights from recent Nobel Prize winner that question the validity of much of existing economic and investing theory. Comments?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-th ... 2017-10-09

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 8278

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

The case can be made that the optimal time to buy inflation protection is not when inflation is actively increasing or expected to increase substantially in the near future. At such times, nominal bonds suffer substantial principal loss and TIPS become quite expensive. Currently, little if any infla...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Option Strategies enable risk averse investors to have a higher degree of Small Value tilt?
Replies: 3
Views: 471

Re: Can Option Strategies enable risk averse investors to have a higher degree of Small Value tilt?

I wouldn't do this strategy. First, there is no certainty that SCV will outperform over your personal time frame, regardless of backtesting. Backtesting suggests but does not define a future. There are legitimate reasons to question whether SCV's robust outperformance will continue in the future (ov...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.
Replies: 19
Views: 3254

Re: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.

The question is: can you tolerate keeping a 100% stock portfolio for decades? If so, investing only in equities and only for the long run is expected to maximize return. You need to be 100% sure you won't need to tap into the money for decades, no chance of losing your high paying job or, alternatel...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 17583

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Bogle, as always, gives an intelligent, rational, and sober analysis. Almost everyone who looks at current US market prices and the current and expected future state of our economy expects considerably less than historical returns. Arnott and GMO agree with Bogle's dour picture. There are however tw...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 8328

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

nedsaid wrote: Short term interest rates were kept to essentially zero until the recent short term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Bank. I liquidated almost all my money market funds in retirement accounts because I was fed up with receiving almost zero interest, I went to bonds with those funds ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 8328

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

I have always been a fan of cash, kept a lot of it, and a equity heavy portfolio. It has a bad and IMO unfair reputation among many financial analysts who tend to prepare for the last war instead of the next one. We've just ended a 35 year bull market in bonds which saw ever increasing bond principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some Hand-Holding
Replies: 17
Views: 1443

Re: Some Hand-Holding

I'll chime in with the alternate point of view since everyone seems to think your portfolio is too aggressive. The real question about aggressive, equity heavy portfolios is not the portfolio itself but the person who owns it. Are you given to panic when the bottom drops out? Did you manage to sail ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 2182

Re: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio

I think you've got a good portfolio as it stands and wouldn't agonize over changes.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?
Replies: 15
Views: 2548

Re: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?

Two huge problems . First, default risk. The probability of corporate default increases with time. A lot of today's successful corporations will be out of business in 10 - 20 years. It's not easy picking the ones that will survive. Look how many of the darlings of 20 years ago are either on the rope...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks interview
Replies: 1
Views: 481

Re: Howard Marks interview

Very interesting post, lazyday, thanks for posting. It brings up some important considerations. We are in uncharted waters these days in terms of aggressive central bank policies. Never before in history have interest rates been this low for this long, nor have central banks ever been forced to reso...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel essay on Smart Beta
Replies: 11
Views: 2027

Re: Malkiel essay on Smart Beta

Two problems with multi-factor approaches. Increased cost, obviously one. Second, complexity. Which factors to select in which proportions and the specifics of the bands used to define each factor such that trades will be triggered. Should all factors be used or only a few? Should all be equally wei...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3847

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

I think Lauretta makes a good point. Pricing of bonds between US sovereigns and EUR sovereigns doesn't make any sense at current interest rate differentials IMO. Part of this is that the central banks in EUR and the US are in different points of the interest rate cycle: decreasing interest rates in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'
Replies: 50
Views: 3073

Re: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'

A 100% stock portfolio, or a 90/10 as Buffett selected for his wife, have higher expected long term returns than portfolios with more bonds. Warren can stick with that heavy tilt to equity through thick and thin because he's a multi-billionaire with a very strong stock market stomach, and he keeps h...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: Smart Beta Debate Sparks Identity Crisis at Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 2965

Re: Bloomberg: Smart Beta Debate Sparks Identity Crisis at Vanguard

I find it interesting that total dollar investment in smart beta efts has increased 500% in the last 10 years, 300% in the last 5 years alone. This does not include smart beta and factor-based mutual funds which also have poured a lot money into these strategies. Cap-weighted beta index funds invest...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of a crash and lump sum investing
Replies: 32
Views: 3404

Re: Likelihood of a crash and lump sum investing

Lump sum gets a bad wrap on this forum. There are academic studies that conclude lump sum is the way to go. The problem with the academic studies is that they're not looking at the current specific market characteristics (valuations, expectations about future corporate profile growth, interest rates...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Founder of world's largest hedge fund manager shares his ideas about success
Replies: 2
Views: 697

Founder of world's largest hedge fund manager shares his ideas about success

Interesting and surprisingly forthright about where we are now and where we might be going. Comments?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-ra ... 2017-09-29

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 2142

Re: Alternate investment strategies

nedsaid wrote: Yet another issue is that markets, particularly in a crisis, will do things you won't expect. Sometimes you just have to be patient and wait for the recovery in stock prices. We always look for the magic answer that will give our portfolios steady 7-8% growth every year with little v...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?
Replies: 65
Views: 7689

Re: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?

It is a relatively easy exercise in arithmetic to define the specific parameters of a trading strategy that would have optimized investment results over any given backtesting period. Whether or not those same parameters will work in similar fashion going forward is IMO uncertain. One wonders for exa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 175
Views: 48109

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

willthrill81 wrote: The idea that bonds have been in a long bull market is, to the best of my knowledge, false. The long-run performance of bonds (10 years or more) is determined almost entirely by bond yields, which were far better 30 years ago than now. A bond holder would rather be earning 10% t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 2142

Re: Alternate investment strategies

My two cents worth. Like nedsaid, there is enough complexity to suit me in just stocks, bonds, and cash. I think I understand the behavior of these simpler building blocks. I believe bonds are the ultimate diversifier for an equity based portfolio and see no need to dedicate significant amounts of m...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 175
Views: 48109

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Wellesley has been a great fund in terms of risk adjusted returns for a very long time. Like all other strategies, however, its returns are period dependent. A 60 bond/40 stock portfolio does quite well in an environment of ever decreasing interest rates which we had for the 34 years of 1982 - 2016,...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 2142

Alternate investment strategies

Below is the website address for an article from the Wall Street Journal that argues that alternate investment strategies may be overhyped and have rather consistently underperformed a simple 60/40 portfolio over the last decade. If you can't access it directly from WSJ, you can find it on http://ob...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: A 5 Factor Evaluation
Replies: 15
Views: 2479

Re: Larry Swedroe: A 5 Factor Evaluation

rkhusky wrote: And the comparison to physics isn't appropriate, not because of the accuracy of the results, but because the universe isn't an active opponent, changing the parameters as we learn more. A more appropriate comparison would be to game theory. It's also worth noting that the Fama French...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 5438

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

I think that a 0% US equity holding in a portfolio is way off target. It implies that Arnott Research Affiliates' model (Shiller PE10) foretells the future emphatically. Vanguard's study looked at all factors, including PE10, as predictors of future market action and determined that none have greate...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 2863

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

I tend to agree with Vanguard and others who expect positive but significantly lower than historical rates of expected stock and bond returns in the US going forward. No one knows how the future will actually play out, but it may be a mistake in financial planning to project US historical returns go...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3591

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Great post, Random Walker. It makes a very important point in favor of wide diversification off asset classes in a portfolio.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 59
Views: 5455

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

I believe the main purpose is to reduce risk. It provides a formula for making asset allocation changes which, if followed, may reduce emotion-based buy/sell decisions. To be successful however, a high level of self-knowledge, especially risk tolerance, is necessary. Often it takes the real experien...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 5519

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

The article by GS is interesting. It predicts a 67% chance of a bear market in the next two years which doesn't seem like an outlandish prediction to me. It gives them plenty of wiggle room. 2 years is a long time frame and even over 2 years they estimate a 33% chance that there will be no bear mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S & P broke major technical/psychological number
Replies: 21
Views: 3144

Re: S & P broke major technical/psychological number

Personally I place no faith in technical analysis or in threshold psychological numbers as predictors of future market action. This news does not change my outlook in any way.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1711

Re: Shiller PE over 30

IMO it is time to rebalance to your asset allocation model which hopefully reflects your true risk tolerance, but not to make substantial portfolio changes based on fear of an imminent market collapse. When something sufficiently disruptive happens, such that mass psychology shifts into reverse, the...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 7894

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Doc, if all we're talking about is moving a portion of TBM into Treasuries and that action makes you feel more secure about future market disruptions, it seems rational to do it. Treasuries offer the ultimate safety in a market collapse. Currently their yields aren't far from TBM's, so switching isn...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 7894

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

After stocks long run I rebalanced today from stocks to bonds. This is not market timing but merely rebalancing. A great deal of good news is currently baked into US market prices and, as Doc points out, there is plenty of potential risk in the world. I do not believe, however, that it is time to ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 13543

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

Those are good results relative to the experts, nedsaid. You've been investing for a long time and it appears that you've learned a lot along the way. If you invest long enough, it is inevitable that you've make lot of mistakes, but for the adept market student, failures turn out to be better teache...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 198
Views: 27915

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

HEALTH WARNING: WHAT WE DO IS VERY RISKY 2016 was far from a smooth ride and, given the diversity of our risk exposures, no year ever will be. Our reinsurance portfolios took many hits in 2016, including the Fort McMurray wildfires, Hurricane Matthew, and a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in New Zealand. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors
Replies: 30
Views: 5217

Re: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors

It has been suggested in the past that reinsurance sits at some unique place on the risk/reward spectrum with bond-like security and equity-like return. It may well have a unique risk/reward profile, not really correlating with the stock market while offering higher expected returns than the bond ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?
Replies: 50
Views: 8312

Re: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?

Great post, Todd, and great comment, lack_ey. You can learn a lot on the Forum simply by reading the posts. The forecast for US market returns by Phillips and Ural (6% nominal) is close to what some others suggest (Vanguard, Swedroe, Schwab). Given low inflation, 1.5% - 2.5%, that would offer real r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4551

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Robert T wrote: On value performance in low growth-low inflation environments. Japan is one example. Since 1990s inflation has averaged less that 0.5% with many years of deflation, and real annual per capita GDP growth has on average been less than 1%. Since June 1994 (the period for which MSCI Jap...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard’s chief economist says artificial intelligence, automation stymieing market forecasters
Replies: 4
Views: 1307

Re: Vanguard’s chief economist says artificial intelligence, automation stymieing market forecasters

I agree with Joe Davis on this one. It is undeniably true that in the past technological advancement has created not only more wealth, but also more jobs than it has destroyed. In this current case I fear that the future may well be different from the past. Since the middle of the last century, say ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4551

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Something we have to keep in mind in evaluating the presented graph from 1951 to 1973 of market, high quality value and low quality value indexes. Survival rates. Low quality value companies, the cheapest of the lot, would be expected to go out of business more often than higher quality value compan...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational fears?
Replies: 23
Views: 2274

Re: Irrational fears?

All of us have irrational fears. The question is how much we allow irrational fears to affect our judgement and determine our behavior. Vanguard is a totally reputable company, IMO offering the best stewardship for its clients of all financial companies. Basically almost any outcome in financial mar...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 11165

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Robert T wrote: 2003–2016: Annualized return (%) / 2008 (downside) return (%) Sequoia = 6.9% / -27.0% Tweedy Browne Value = 6.7% / -24.4% Personal ‘factor-tilted’ portfolio* = 9.3% / -28.7% 75% Global stock (MSCI ACWI):25% US total bond = 7.5% / -30.4% * ‘Factor-tilted’ portfolio = 75:25 stock:bond...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 12555

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Top99% wrote: This thread means it is time for me to whip it out again: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploa ... d_2017.pdf This is the single best piece of visual evidence I know of for the value diversification. As for Emerging markets suffering from corruption, I suspect the market knows that...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades
Replies: 21
Views: 2236

Re: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades

I admit that I don't understand Bitcoin. I may not fully understand investing in other areas of the financial markets either, but I understand them a lot better than Bitcoin. I don't invest in anything I don't understand. Also I don't invest in anything simply because it's skyrocketing in price, rat...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 4409

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

The future of stocks has never been predictable by anyone over any significant period of time with a high degree of reliability. That holds true in either the short term, the intermediate term or the long term. All you have to do is to look at Larry's annual follow-up on predictions made by acknowle...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 11165

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Very interesting discussion. Packer has raised some good questions, pointing out that value investors like Warren Buffett are not fans of value indexes and rather determine intrinsic value based on thorough research of a single company. No one argues with the concept that cheap beats expensive in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5736

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

JBTX wrote: As to US household debt being highest on record, that may be true on absolute dollar terms, but not percent GDP which is the way it is typically viewed. From a peak of around 100% to 80% GDP. Still higher than average, but considerably better. True, but that 100% figure was at the heigh...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding to Emergency Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 961

Re: Adding to Emergency Fund

As a retired person with no income other than SS and with a large 2/3 equity allocation, I keep a large emergency fund, 2 -3 years of living expenses, and replenish it to that level every year, usually out of equity so that my bond allocation tends to slowly increase over time. If you have an income...