Search found 1397 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 14958

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

I think it's overstating the case to say that there is never any place for any type of corporate bonds in a portfolio. Treasuries look compelling on backtesting during the greatest bond market in history. But will that continue going forward from here, yielding 1.5% for ten years? They provide safet...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the low volatility post
Replies: 9
Views: 938

Re: Part 2 of the low volatility post

Larry wrote regarding low volatility: I have no idea if they are overpriced. What I do know is that high prices project lower future returns. I totally agree. I have stood on the sidelines for years watching high div and REITS get more and more overvalued, going higher and higher. I never got on th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the low volatility post
Replies: 9
Views: 938

Re: Part 2 of the low volatility post

Good article, thanks for posting, Larry. One question: Low Vol and High Div may well be too popular, overpriced at present along with a few other market segments. The question is: is this a cyclical trend which will in the near future be reversed? Or is it a secular change in a world where economic ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 107
Views: 11326

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

I don't blindly follow what anyone advises, even Bogle and Buffett, my two favorite heroes in the investing world. Whenever there are many differing expert opinions on a subject like international allocation I try to read all points of view and make my own decision, taking full responsibility for it...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 3879

Re: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?

The justification for different treatment is that dividends are double taxed, at the corporate level by firms paying them out and at the personal level by those receiving them. Bonds are single taxed, only to those who receive payments. It is also argued that such preferential tax treatment increase...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott warning signs in smart beta
Replies: 8
Views: 1264

Rob Arnott warning signs in smart beta

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pioneer-of-smart-beta-investing-is-flashing-warning-signs-2016-08-10


Comments?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 19344

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

To throw in my two cents worth: I agree with Larry on this one. I adjusted my financial planning a long time ago over such concerns. Predicting future returns is an imperfect art, not a science, so we're not talking about certainty here, only our best guess given current market inputs. Current valua...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 03, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 3369

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX? The primary purpose of this fund is to generate profits for AQR. It wouldn't exist if AQR didn't see a high probability of profit from it. If it fails to achieve that primary goal, it will disappear and become a victim of survivor...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low volatility and high valuations
Replies: 14
Views: 1049

Re: low volatility and high valuations

Larry wrote: There are also some other fixed income strategies we are looking closely at which look attractive, including investing in direct to consumer loans (arbing the banks) but taking only the higher end of the credit spectrum. If done right you can get dramatically higher yields (say in 8% r...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 10837

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

coachz wrote: Super rich aren't going to invest their money and make crappy returns so I want to know where are they putting their bucks for the big money. 60 billion of super rich money went into Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme. Hedge funds which have massively underperformed the S&P 500 for a de...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 10837

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

How can markets keep going up? The answer has a lot to do with the following question: How can quality bond yields keep going down? There is an abundance of accumulated wealth in US and DM seeking places to go for safe bonds or relatively safe real gains (US stocks). Historically speaking there is n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to switch between bonds / stocks to maximize profits
Replies: 23
Views: 1802

Re: How to switch between bonds / stocks to maximize profits

nedsaid wrote: Color me skeptical. 1+ Color me skeptical as well. First of all, I simply cannot believe the numbers. If Auntie has been averaging a compound rate of return of 18%/yr. her money doubles every 4 years. We're asked to believe that she has done this not for 4 years but for 16 years, 4 c...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 353
Views: 53716

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

For those who follow market timing strategies consistently, no one, and I do mean no one, experts included, avoids being served a generous slice of humble pie by the market at some point. Sometimes it works, sometimes it backfires. I believe the data suggests that most who follow these strategies un...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3606

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

nedsaid wrote: As much as I like and admire Larry Swedroe and Dr. Bill Bernstein, there might be something going on with real estate that they are completely missing. True, nedsaid, and here's another idea that is as close to ensuring bullet proof high returns as possible. I'll short REITs, you buy...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 178
Views: 22201

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

jebmke wrote: Only use real rates (~0 for bonds and 4% for equity). Me, too, for US returns. I expect INTL equity and EM equity to have higher returns going forward but still use 4% estimates for them because their returns, while higher on an expected basis, are less predictable and reliable than U...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3606

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

InvestorNewb wrote: I feel sorry for the people who sold their REITs after that post, even though he did not suggest doing that. It goes to show that nobody can predict the future. I have to admit I was tempted to sell some of my REITs at the time, since Dr. Bernstein is a well respected author and...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 222
Views: 16036

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Good article, Larry, thanks for posting. It is important for investors to realize that US equities are not currently in a bubble. There is no reason to panic and step away from equity now, be it US or INTL. There is certainly more risk and volatility in equity than in bonds just as there always has ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 2830

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

Simplegift wrote: IN SUM: To invest in stocks is to wager on the continued success and resiliency of global capitalism. Investors in the U.S. market have historically been rewarded with some of the highest, most consistent stock returns in the world (no future guarantees). However, for the buy-hold...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2561

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

Simplegift wrote: The original Fama-French paper on the value effect covered the high-inflation decades of the 60s, 70s and 80s (specifically, 1963-1990), and consequently showed a very robust value premium. Since then, inflation and interest rates have been in a long decline (chart below) — just t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 24, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 10121

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Quark wrote:' As others have mentioned, you're ignoring productivity growth. If productivity growth is high enough, even at 1:1 everyone would be better off than they were at 1:3 with lower productivity. Over time, output per worker increases and that higher output can be used to support more peopl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 23, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2561

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

When after 23 years the difference in approaches is less than one quarter of one percent, there are several potential explanations. One to consider is that the result is purely by chance, that the value premium didn't exist in any meaningful way or that if it did, the funds did not capture it. The l...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund performance and fund size
Replies: 9
Views: 908

Re: Mutual fund performance and fund size

No surprises here. Successful funds attract more performance chasing dollars until the assets under management exceeds the available opportunities to create alpha. There is a great deal of group-think in professional money management. Many line up together and tout the same stocks or the same strate...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 10121

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

From the Bureau of Labor statistics: Labor productivity measures the amount of goods and services produced by one hour of labor; specifically, labor productivity measures the amount of real gross domestic product (GDP) produced by an hour of labor. Real GDP/total hours of labor. Theres is some contr...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 10121

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

I agree with Bill Bernstein on this one. Thanks, Bill, for your input. There are real challenges ahead in financing retirement particularly in developed economies. One answer for individuals, as many posters have pointed out, is to save and invest more, reducing personal consumption in favor of inve...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?
Replies: 28
Views: 2732

Re: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?

Some good points have been made in this post about why CAPE PE 10 in isolation may not offer an apples to apples comparison between the US and INTL. Still the differences between CAPE for US versus INTL are quite striking not only at present but also, as Simplegift point out, by historical standards...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?
Replies: 28
Views: 2732

Re: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?

Great post, Simplegift, as usual. My understanding is that CAPE PE 10's ability to predict future returns in poor in the short term (1 -3 years) and poor in the very long term (3 decades). I believe its predictive value maximizes at about 10 years where it has an accuracy of about 40% according to a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 53945

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

friar1610 wrote: Thanks for a very comprehensive response. Your thinking and mine are pretty similar although I'm a little lighter on international. Right now I'm at 42/54/4 (42 rather than 40 because of recent up market.) I decided recently to move to 45 equity but not until things drop back a bit...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 53945

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

friar1610 wrote: I'd be interested in knowing what AA you'd recommend going forward if one wanted to keep it relatively conservative, track inflation and (maybe a bit more) but take no exhorbitant risk on the equity side. Figure a need for 25 years or so with a 3-ish% withdrawal rate. Also figure t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Saving a Company, Building a Colossus, Preserving a Culture" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 1501

Re: "Saving a Company, Building a Colossus, Preserving a Culture" by Jack Bogle

Thanks, Taylor, for the post. Bogle is my favorite hero in the financial arena which has numerous self-serving participants but few heroes. I always learn from what he has to say. I did not realize what a struggle his long quest has been, how close to complete failure so many times. He is brilliant ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 53945

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

grap0013 wrote: A 30:70 mix of global cap weighted stocks with treasuries lost less than 3% in 2008. Talk about sleeping well at night. I know total bond is yielding something like double that of 5 year treasuries right now but one should not buy treasuries for the yield. Let the portfolio growth c...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on REIT run up so far?
Replies: 14
Views: 2318

Re: Any thoughts on REIT run up so far?

In my view REITS are overvalued now and have been overvalued for long time. I have refused to buy them for several years for this reason and I've stood on the sidelines and watched as they continued to climb in value, getting more and more overvalued. I don't know when their great run will stop. I s...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification sanity check
Replies: 20
Views: 1856

Re: Diversification sanity check

Epsilon Delta wrote in response to my post: I disagree with this. It's entirely possible that the EM become more like DM and their market cap approaches their share of the world economy and the current shares are not a bargain. EM market cap could grow by issuing more shares. EM markets becoming mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?
Replies: 29
Views: 4022

Re: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?

Kevin K wrote: Bottom line for me anyway: expenses matter more than ever in this low-return environment and flexibility in SWRs during retirement is vital. 1+ I believe much of Wade Pfau's commentaries have as their chief purpose feathering his own bed, a very common practice in the financial indus...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification sanity check
Replies: 20
Views: 1856

Re: Diversification sanity check

nisi wrote: Emerging market capitalization is maybe 1/8th to 1/6th of global (numbers vary because authorities do not agree on which countries should be considered "emerging markets." But they will make the point that emerging market economies are a much bigger part of the world economy t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7563

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Karamatsu wrote: What sort of structural labor reforms? Also it's worth noting that very few Japanese individuals buy JGBs. The bonds are mostly held by institutions, all of which are now net sellers. The only net buyers of JGBs these days are the Bank of Japan (obviously) and foreigners. The vast ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs
Replies: 32
Views: 5128

Re: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs

Bonds have historically low yields. That means per unit of yield, they're more expensive than ever in history. Stocks are near all time highs and have elevated PE 1 and PE 10. That means they're expensive too, but less so than bonds by historical measures. Everything is expensive which means the sup...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Well would you do if you bought/sold Robert Shiller CAPE
Replies: 5
Views: 520

Re: How Well would you do if you bought/sold Robert Shiller CAPE

I don't think you can look at CAPE PE 10 levels in isolation as the only guideline in terms of selling stocks when CAPE values are higher than historical norms and moving into bonds. Larry and others have made the point that changes in accounting practices produce some distortion in today's CAPE val...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?
Replies: 36
Views: 3900

Re: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?

The probability that the US will go into a replay of Japan from 1989 to now is not sufficient in my opinion as to warrant spending a lot of thought or energy about how to position your assets in advance of such an event. Japan's decline started from the greatest property/stock bubble in history, far...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world
Replies: 29
Views: 1905

Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world

Vanguard's web site article suggests low rates and low growth are secular not cyclical. Monetary policy has reached its limits worldwide. Unless aggressive fiscal policy steps up to the plate we may be stuck in the "new normal" for quite some time. Comments?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium
Replies: 8
Views: 967

Re: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium

Exploitable after cost? I think that's the big question regarding factor strategies and this article concentrates on that point. Some believe that targeting extreme levels of small and extreme levels of value is the optimal approach to harvest the SCV premium. It makes intuitive sense. RZV, Guggenhe...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7563

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

From The Economist Sept. 27, 2014: Corporate saving has risen across the rich world in recent years. Bosses have felt a greater need to protect themselves against financial turmoil. There have also been fewer opportunities for investment in ageing economies. But East Asia is an extreme case. Japane...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Small-Cap International Funds Beating the Indexes
Replies: 12
Views: 1640

Re: Actively Managed Small-Cap International Funds Beating the Indexes

There are always funds in any category that outperform their respective indexes, sometime impressively so. Anytime there is a large number of funds in any category there will always be a few big winners and a few big losers particularly over short time frames (3 years of less). The important questio...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate bonds are best
Replies: 7
Views: 1964

Re: Intermediate bonds are best

kolea wrote: For a buy-and-hold investor, certainly one that holds bonds to maturity, it seems that charts that show annual TR data are not really accurate. Or am I missing something? During the period in question, 1955 to 1985, there was ever increasing inflation and bond yields which peaked in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7563

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

rgs92 wrote: Of course, this could be "The Death of Equities" headline for Japan, and we all know what happened after that common wisdom... I hope you're right, rgs92, but "The Death of Equities" headline was written when the US suffered runaway inflation. Inflation can be contr...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium
Replies: 21
Views: 2425

Re: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium

Simplegift wrote: What lessons do Mr. Bernstein’s observations hold for investors today? a) Investment returns reflect the inherent stability of a society. One of the prices we pay for our advanced standard-of-living is lower expected asset returns. b) The low stock prices that produce high future ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 15
Views: 2088

Re: Sin as investment strategy

It appears that in aggregate investors hold a certain stigma for sin stocks. That unpopularity in turn drives their improved fundamentals and, hence, their improved performance. I doubt that this is solely due to socially responsible investing etfs because sin stock outperformance existed before suc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7563

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Japan's nominal GDP expressed in the local currency (Yen) is currently about 10% less than it was in 1998, 18 years ago. That's right, negative GDP growth for 18 years. They do have some great companies but they also have a lot of inefficient companies for a number of reasons. During that same time ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffett got this wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 5533

Re: I think Buffett got this wrong

With an investing career is as long, as consistently successful, and as distinguished as Buffett's, one should be circumspect about declaring that he is wrong, especially if one does not have a similar pedigree. No one is perfect but Warren's record over decades speaks for itself. Success eventually...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 7563

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Lots of problems. Just to name a few: Popping of largest economic bubble in modern history for stocks and real estate, world's worst demographic nightmare, world's highest governmental debt to GDP ratio, structural/cultural labor market rigidity, low corporate return on equity, economy's greater vul...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit, Buy & Hold, & Investor Shaky Confidence
Replies: 23
Views: 2982

Re: Brexit, Buy & Hold, & Investor Shaky Confidence

It hard to make a strong case for rebalancing into US stocks after a 3% - 4% drop when their post-decline PE1 is 23.5 and their PE10 is 25.3. The US market has to drop a lot more in my opinion before it is worthy of rushing into US stocks. I do not believe that the US market is going to take off lik...

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