Search found 1599 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM SCV Liquidity
Replies: 4
Views: 683

Re: EM SCV Liquidity

I am a long term buy-and-hold investor usually I don't do limit orders just market orders. If you're going to hold it for 5 years, it makes very little difference to spend time and trouble with a nickel and dime approach to purchases and sales. DGS, one of my holdings, has a total asset base of 1.21...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 8002

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Great post, Simplegift. Brings up a very interesting question that has major long term implications for DM economies and investments. I tend to agree that all DM demographics are unfavorable and getting worse, with historically low labor force participation rates, and that these changes are not temp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 11622

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

willthrill81 wrote:
Nobody knows nothin'.
1+

The main function of predictors of the economic future is to make fortune tellers look good--Warren Buffett's take on predictors and predictions.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 5641

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Random Walker wrote: Haven't seen the article. I can only give you my cumulative opinion from the lay person's reading I have done. To me the risk story for value makes complete sense: higher cost of capital, more leveraged, distressed, more variable earnings. When I started my interest in value I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1380

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

I am not saying that Cliff Asness is a con man. I believe he is honest and as I said before highly intelligent and knowledgeable. I further believe that he completely believes in what AQR sells and gives rational and often compelling reasons for his choices based on backtesting data. I merely made t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 894

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

I have my assets with Vanguard but TRP is now and has been for a long, long time an excellent and reputable financial firm which has, I believe, advised investors well over the years, kept active management fees relatively low, and in general provided good returns for investors.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1380

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

Asness presents AQR's point of view effectively as one would expect. He is very smart and very knowledgeable guy. I have been listening to and reading the opinions and analysis of financial experts who are very smart and very knowledgeable for 3 decades. Two things are striking about their insights....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 894

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

Good information, Paul, thanks for posting. Interesting article by from T Rowe Price on Growth versus Value investing. In the large cap arena LC Growth beat LC Value by 9.5% in 2015. However in 2016 LC Value beat LC Growth by 10.2%. T Rowe Price makes the case that historically there are periods of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2897

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

Simplegift wrote: ust from curiosity, charted below are the annual deviations of the price index from the fundamental values in the OP. With today’s high market valuations, plus intense interest around the world in U.S. companies and their prospects, one wonders if there will ever be a future time ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2897

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

Great post, Simplegift. It makes the point that underlying fundamentals over the long haul have exerted gravity on market price euphoria and conversely given a lift to market price desperation from panic. Speculative return is powerful over short time spans but negligible over the long run. It also ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 56
Views: 9124

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: stocks are for accumulating wealth, bonds are for preserving wealth and cash is for spending wealth. Make sure you have enought cash and bonds so you don't have to sell your stocks and allow them time to recover. When they do, you sell stocks that have recovered and incr...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 7036

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

joer1212 wrote: Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? It is a simple question but there's a problem. We never know beforehand the exact details of whi...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2587

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Simplegift wrote: One wonders if something has fundamentally changed in the equity REIT market since Mr. Bernstein made his post? Or whether it's just been extreme yield-seeking by investors in a low interest rate environment? Up until 2010, low dividend yields were historically correlated with low...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 8067

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

kosomoto wrote: What support do you have for REITs being overvalued? I showed two graphs showing they are undervalued based on recent NAV discounts and currently in line in regards to P/FFO. The total market is trading at higher valuations than recent history, implying REITs are undervalued compare...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 8067

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

kosomoto wrote: In 1997 the dividends paid by Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares (VGSIX) were 77 cents per share. In 2016, the dividends were 1.28 per share. This is a growth of around 2.5% annualized. There are two factors to take into account in this. One is share price. In 1997 the share p...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3158

Re: Angel Investing

I have made angel investments so I'm speaking from experience. Do not invest any money in an angel investment that you aren't fully prepared to lose every penny of. These investments are totally illiquid and subject to much higher levels of risk than any other investment alternative I'm aware of, pe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 5519

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

Simplegift wrote: In short, when times are good, investors are willing to pay more for the same dollar of earnings than when times are dire. 1+ The simple truth. One thing I must disagree with is the argument that there is no relationship between economic growth as measured by GDP and equity return...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIAX & VTSAX - Why Low Morningstar Ranking?
Replies: 8
Views: 1916

Re: VTIAX & VTSAX - Why Low Morningstar Ranking?

Most international equity funds do not include emerging market exposure. VTIAX does and that has negatively impacted its returns in recent years relative to its peers due to EM underperformance. Hence the low ratings. When EM outperform DM for a signifiant period of time, It is expected that VTIAX w...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 28, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?
Replies: 28
Views: 5074

Re: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

For me, there's a simple answer the question: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 28, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 5519

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

Great post, Simplegift, thanks for posting. I agree with the basic thrust of the article. Bernstein has made a similar observation, as markets and economies become more developed and stable, less risky, their valuations go up and their expected returns drop. Higher than historically average PE ratio...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 2816

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

Two quotes from Arnott's article are IMO likely true: We find that the performance of the market, value, and momentum factors in live portfolios is sharply lower than their performance in theoretical model portfolios. This may be contributing to many of the new live factor strategies faring as poorl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 83
Views: 9773

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

Just my 2 cents worth. I believe this portfolio to be excessively conservative (a person at retirement should have 80% of assets in TIPS plus LMP) for most because given the size of the portfolios of most retirees, a TIPS plus LMP will not provide them with sufficient income to cover retirement expe...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations
Replies: 13
Views: 1822

Re: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations

I think Larry and nedsaid are on target on this question. Lower but positive intermediate/long term returns but not a severe bear market on the horizon such as what follows the popping of a bubble.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 2816

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

For those who wish to pursue factor investing approaches I agree with grap0013 that the RAFI Fundamental Index Strategy is a reasonable approach. In effect it chooses stocks that are on sale but have strong underlying fundamentals, a combo of VAL plus QUAL. The combination of VAL plus QUAL is basica...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 1269

Re: PEG Ratio

The problems is that it is very difficult to predict expected future earnings which on average have historically been about 10% too optimistic with a wide range of variability. It is even more difficult to predict what future earrings growth will be. A lot can change in 12 months particularly in hot...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 8028

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

VictoriaF wrote: This is true about individual TIPS. What about TIPS funds and ETFs such as LTPZ? Victoria I refer you to the Vanguard paper that discusses LT versus ST TIPS. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s328.pdf Long term TIPS are a less effective inflation hedge and more volatile in principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?
Replies: 36
Views: 2603

Re: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?

nisi wrote; In short, what happens as factor-based investing gets increasingly popular? Answer: it becomes diminishingly effective. What happens as cap-weighted total-market indexing gets increasingly popular? Answer: nothing. It is the only strategy that cannot get "crowded" or "overgrazed." 1+ I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 23, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 3139

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Very interesting posts. I enjoyed in particular the article cited in chuffy's post, "Does Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets?" Sometimes as someone wrote, "the more you know, the less you know." It appears that nothing in the way of predators of future returns gives iron clad gu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 23, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 8028

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

Long term TIPS offer a guaranteed positive real return over a long time frame, hence "bullet proof." The price you pay for being "bullet proof" is that its principal value is volatile and fully subject to duration risk, so that if you are forced to sell them before maturity you c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 3139

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Very interesting. I guess the question is can we use these results from the last 24 years as a basis for projecting the future for the next 24 years in terms of market returns for USA, China,and India. Many analysts now believe that, based on valuations, demographics, increasing middle class populat...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 21, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 1057

Re: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

mikeguima wrote: ALL investible assets right now (which according to the CAPM is actually the real efficient risky portfolio, not the SP500, not a world index of stocks, therefore, theoretically, it should be the best portfolio available), you would have a portfolio which is roughly 40% stocks, 55%...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 20, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone catching the CNBC movie Madoff: from Millions to Billions???
Replies: 15
Views: 4756

Re: Anyone catching the CNBC movie Madoff: from Millions to Billions???

Saw it, actually quite engrossing. It was amazingly easy for a sociopath conman to hoodwink some some of the richest, most famous and supposedly brightest people in America. It also showed how totally inept regulators were. Based on a tip they actually investigated Madoff's multi-billion dollar equi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

nedsaid wrote: Garland, one possible answer is to shift some funds from US Stocks to International Stocks were valuations are more reasonable. Emerging Markets have looked particularly cheap. I have been doing some very modest shifts in my own portfolio. I'm with you on that one, nedsaid, and have ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Problems With The Factor Zoo
Replies: 24
Views: 2868

Re: Larry Swedroe: Problems With The Factor Zoo

I would like to thank Random Walker for posting Larry's articles consistently. I always find them to be educational and I suspect most Forum members do as well. I miss Larry's postings but fully understand why as a busy professional he decided to spend his time and effort elsewhere. At least thanks ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 42
Views: 6176

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Interesting article. I don't fully agree with Grantham about the demise of value due to increasing corporate profitability but clearly the last decade has tested the mettle of SCV investors and also MOM investors who got killed in the 2009-10 recovery if they were long/short MOM. Personally I believ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

alex_666 wrote about using trailing versus estimated PEs as predictors of future performance: You have a choice. One option is to use backwards looking stale values. This has low to no predictive value. The other option is forward looking which gives decent predictive value. Actually Joachim Clemen...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book
Replies: 27
Views: 6260

Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

nisi wrote: Haven't read the book but the very phrase "exponential technologies" has my BS detectors pinging left, right, and center. (Anyone remember "Future Shock?") What are they supposed to be? A quick Google turns up c--p like this: 1+ My BS detectors were also pinging like...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

Forward earnings estimates are created by analysts who profit from sales of stocks and therefore they always tend to overstate what reality turns out to be. PE ratios can also be manipulated by accounting gimmicks to make them appear to be reasonable when in fact they aren't. The whole question of E...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find
Replies: 6
Views: 1410

Re: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find

staythecourse wrote: It is NOT as important to identify those with skill in retrospect, but be able to find those with skill in ADVANCE on a dollar weighted return net fees, transaction costs, and taxes. I have not found ANYONE who has been able to identify the above in retrospect with any degree f...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 17, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 2412

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

Jo Money wrote; Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund As of December 31, 2006 P/E 27.6x P/B 3.5x Yield 0.4% As of December 31, 2016 P/E 47.7x P/B 3.4x Yield 1.0% Actually I just the Vanguard website and its SCG index has a PE of 121.2 and a PB of 3.3. The SCV index has a PE of 48.6 and a PB of 1.9. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 15, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 21159

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

frankmorris wrote: Hoping either this forum, or the books, will give me guidance on how much choice I have in the matter. You're in an enviable position, Frank, with considerable personal assets and a strong desire to learn the ins and outs of investing success. The forum is a great source as are n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 14, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 21159

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

As for how to handle considerable assets in a personal taxable account, I'll add my 2 cents worth. I have a fair amount of assets in my personal taxable account and this is my strategy, a very simple one and as time goes by simplicity looks more and more beautiful to me. I have only 2 assets in the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 14, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 3492

Re: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]

frankmorris wrote: Thanks for your comments. I've seen comments about expecting lower returns in the near future, but haven't quite understood those predictions - especially in light of common wisdom on this forum that no one can predict the future. How have you come to the conclusion that the futu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 13, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 11685

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

I believe it's a matter of personal preference, home county bias. Clearly US valuations are generous relative to INTL and especially EM. There are, as some have pointed out, reasons why US valuations should be higher. A cap weighted US dominated portfolio has outperformed a cap weighted INTL portfol...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 13, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3851

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

In the really long run, we're all dead. Although it is true that in the long run stocks have a wider dispersion of outcomes that bonds, that doesn't keep me from making rational assumptions about portfolio construction. It is entirely easonable to expect stocks to outperform bonds in the long run. I...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 12, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 3492

Re: Rob Arnott

I tend to agree with Arnott's thesis that US equities are vulnerable to underperformance relative to INTL going forward. There are significant valuation differences in these markets especially with EM but even with DM. On the other hand there is also increased perceived risk in INTL markets. The que...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 6254

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

I'm with grok87 on this one. I believe the MOM premium is very difficult to harvest after costs and most who try will fail. Long/short MOM as grok87 has pointed out tends to suffer massive losses, the kind that takes long years to recover from, in the recoveries following major market collapses. Hug...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Challenges Of Managing Finances As We Age
Replies: 25
Views: 3967

Re: Larry Swedroe on Challenges Of Managing Finances As We Age

Excellent article as one would expect from Larry. Brings up some great points. At some point in a long lifespan it likely is appropriate to have a trusted financial advisor to prevent poor financial judgements. The problem is that as we lose cognition we may not be able to identify exactly when gett...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 4557

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

EBITDA is but one example of a generalized phenomenon. The financial industry derives its profits from sales of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, efts, etc.. Ways to put lipstick on a corporate pig's earnings or its future prospects are therefore sought after and, when found, heavily promoted. This is pa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 6499

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Larry wrote: AQR Capital Management also uses idiosyncratic momentum as part of its overall momentum strategies. (Full disclosure: My firm, Buckingham Strategic Wealth, recommends AQR funds in constructing client portfolios.) As usual for Larry, a very well researched and thoughtful article that ma...