Search found 1663 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1547

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

CyberBob wrote:
Graham would compare stock earnings yield to bond yield and would be closer to the opposite and be 75/25.

Bob


1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inevitability of rising inflation--is it so?
Replies: 130
Views: 10020

Re: The inevitability of rising inflation--is it so?

Very interesting and enlightening discussion by everyone involved. I do have a question for Larry or other posters. Although Larry always claims that his crystal ball is cloudy I would like to ask him or others a question about their perceptions of the near term future. Larry wrote: So V has been fa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 01, 2014 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article on REITs
Replies: 55
Views: 5965

Re: Good article on REITs

I totally agree with the article. Except as represented in broad index funds, I have been out of US REITS for 2 years and out of international REITS for 1 year. At current valuations, I don't find their risk/reward characteristics appealing relative to broad market indexes. The problem is that curre...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 30, 2013 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The inevitability of rising inflation--is it so?
Replies: 130
Views: 10020

Re: The inevitability of rising inflation--is it so?

Very good post, Larry. Thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..
Replies: 501
Views: 111670

Re: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, be

billyt wrote by billyt » Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:32 pm Garland: Over the long term, the almost all of the return of a bond fund comes from the coupon payments. To say that "losses in principle value may dwarf the current inflation adjusted yield" indicates that you have a fundamental misunderst...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..
Replies: 501
Views: 111670

Re: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, be

TIPS are protected from inflation risk and default risk. Their principal value, however, is not protected from duration risk as anyone looking at TIPS fund performance this year can see. VIPSX (duration 7.9 years) is down -8.92% YTD while VBIRX (duration 2.4 years) is down only -1.62% YTD. 30 years ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with VTIAX? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 66
Views: 14489

Re: What's wrong with VTIAX?

I suggest that you not to chase past performance with Black Rock or Dodge and Cox. Essentially all their outperformance is due to EMs underperformance relative to DMs. DMs and EMs go through cycles, sometimes one outperforms the other for years, but that cycle has always in the past reversed at some...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 29, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US-Wary Portfolio?
Replies: 56
Views: 5702

Re: US-Wary Portfolio?

First of all, as a college student presumably in his 20s without any debt I see no reason to hold any bonds at all as long as you are certain that you won't need that investment money for living expenses. In my opinion at your age you should aim for maximal long term capital appreciation, not reduce...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another 'greatest hits' post
Replies: 10
Views: 1895

Re: another 'greatest hits' post

Thank you, Valuethinker, for your kind comments.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 27, 2013 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread
Replies: 57
Views: 6501

Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

US equities will have a positive year but not as strong as last year. EMs will do better this year than last year. Bonds will have another lackluster year in general and Corporates will outperform Treasuries and TIPS. US small cap outperformance relative to large caps will decline or disappear next ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 24, 2013 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you determine your Bond/FI allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 1620

Re: How do you determine your Bond/FI allocation?

Bond allocation is a tradeoff between higher expected long term returns (stocks) and higher risk-volatility tolerance (bonds). Where you fit in on that spectrum is an entirely personal matter. I do not believe in a one size fits all rule for bond/stock allocations. I am 66, have been retired for 16 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 22, 2013 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blackrock investing outlook for 2014
Replies: 8
Views: 1591

Re: Blackrock investing outlook for 2014

It spends more energy and effort spent on covering their behinds than on making any actionable predictions. No matter what happens they can claim to have predicted it at some probability. Which considering the general inaccuracies of forward predictions by "experts" may not be such a bad i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 22, 2013 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel on CAPE shortcomings
Replies: 44
Views: 3668

Re: Siegel on CAPE shortcomings

nedsaid wrote: by nedsaid » Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:24 pm Nisiprius, the whole point of my post about the "bond crash of 2013" and the "Boglehead Stock Panic of 2013" was to poke a bit of fun at threads I have been reading and to introduce some perspective. So many of us, particularly...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small caps overvalued?
Replies: 55
Views: 9990

Small caps overvalued?

US small cap stocks have had quite a run of outperformance versus large caps for the last 14 years since the tech bubble burst in 1999. That has been good for those of us who have held small cap stocks at greater than market weight levels but it seems to me that small caps may have become too popula...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe-type portfolio: downside risk vs tracking error risk
Replies: 40
Views: 9148

Re: Swedroe-type portfolio: downside risk vs tracking error

Robert T's analysis is brilliant as is Larry's. Both make compelling cases for optimizing asset allocation based on past performance. However... the skeptic in me wonders. Because a magic combination of selected indexes, SCV, momentum, etc., has optimized past investment returns in the past, how cer...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tourist investors and Smart Beta
Replies: 11
Views: 1339

Re: Tourist investors and Smart Beta

Excellent post, Rick. Thanks for a rational perspective on a hot topic.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 12, 2013 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: residential real estate as an investment,
Replies: 78
Views: 9763

Re: residential real estate as an investment,

Clearly_Irrational wrote: Congratulations on the early retirement by the way. I was in Marine Corps boot camp in 1993 and pretty much flat broke so stock market investing wasn't really on the horizon at that time. You have done very, very well, Clearly_Irrational, with your real estate investing. Co...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: residential real estate as an investment,
Replies: 78
Views: 9763

Re: residential real estate as an investment,

Clearly_Irrational wrote: Are you suggesting that leverage doesn't magnify returns? Anecdotally, I own a duplex in California that I paid about $5000 out of pocket for in 1999 using a zero down VA loan. Over the years rents and costs have essentially canceled each other out, however tax write offs a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 11, 2013 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: residential real estate as an investment,
Replies: 78
Views: 9763

Re: residential real estate as an investment,

Dxbinvestor wrote that I was mistaken that the inflation rate was 1%. I didn't say it was. I meant to write inflation rate plus 1%, but I mistyped and it came out + !%. Anyway the point is that given mortgage loan costs, maintenance, taxes, insurance, and real estate commissions when you sell the pl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: residential real estate as an investment,
Replies: 78
Views: 9763

Re: residential real estate as an investment,

call_me_op wrote by Call_Me_Op » Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:27 pm I do not see the advantage of leverage mentioned. If I could put 20% down on an asset that appreciates at the inflation rate + 1%, that is an annual return of about 20% real on my original investment. Not too shabby. Actually if you put 20% d...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 09, 2013 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund
Replies: 86
Views: 11291

Re: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund

Very good post, Larry, a thoughtful piece by someone who seems to know a lot, be well informed, and have a fairly original point of view. Thanks.


Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 08, 2013 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the Market, as a Reachable Goal
Replies: 47
Views: 4299

Re: Beating the Market, as a Reachable Goal

Interestingly the expense ratio of the fund is 2.3%, compared to Vanguard's Admiral TSM of 0.05%. Five conclusions: 1) With such egregiously generous fees, Mr. Olstein is highly motivated to provide some perceived advantage over index funds whether or not his reasoning is valid. 2) He compares his f...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 05, 2013 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The US Stock Market
Replies: 20
Views: 1889

Re: The US Stock Market

I believe that one reason why US stocks have had a banner year is the dearth of good investing alternatives. Commodities and gold have taken huge hits this year and the commodity super-cycle is over. Europe is in recession, has been there for some time, and their banks are marginally capitalized. Ja...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Stocks - An Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier
Replies: 10
Views: 1741

Re: REIT Stocks - An Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier

I must admit that I own outright, without any mortgage or debt, a rather expensive home which at some point in the distant future I intend to sell when its maintenance becomes too burdensome. That gives me considerable real estate exposure already, although clearly it is not as diversified as a REIT...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross on Jack Bogle
Replies: 6
Views: 2049

Bill Gross on Jack Bogle

From Bill's December 2013 Outlook. A bit of praise Jack, but Bill still thinks he'll be one of the rare active managers who delivers alpha in the future. He may or may not, but it is certain that those who follow Jack's advice will leave "almost all" active managers in their wake. Garland ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Stocks - An Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier
Replies: 10
Views: 1741

Re: REIT Stocks - An Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier

The Fidelity data backtests for the last 20 years. During that twenty years stocks have suffered through the worst two bear markets since the Great Depression. In the first of these market collapses 2000-2003, the collapse didn't include real estate, only stocks. The second did include the real esta...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock investing and the fear of flying
Replies: 57
Views: 5271

Re: Stock investing and the fear of flying

I think your point is an excellent one. People tend to use logic and rationality not to actually arrive at their decisions, but to rationalize them after they've been made. I believe that emotions drive most decisions, investment or otherwise, and that fear, be it rationally based or not, is for mos...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Stocks For The Long Run
Replies: 63
Views: 6414

Re: Foreign Stocks For The Long Run

Excellent article and analysis. Thanks, Rick.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 02, 2013 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Environment
Replies: 47
Views: 5944

Re: Rising Interest Environment

Cut-throat wrote: Who says stock losses are 'Short'?.......They may take a Decade or more to recover. That has not been the case recently, but if you go back to the depression or the 1960s to 1980, if was not a short period at all. If you are retired and drawing your portfolio down this would not be...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 02, 2013 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Environment
Replies: 47
Views: 5944

Re: Rising Interest Environment

Clarification: I am not arguing against holding bonds. I always hold 25%+ bonds and cash in my portfolio, the lowest level of "safe" assets that I am ever comfortable with. Nothing diversifies the volatility of equities as well as high quality bonds and they are always liquid. I am merely ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Environment
Replies: 47
Views: 5944

Re: Rising Interest Environment

I find it interesting that many on this forum commenting on bond performance during a rising interest rate environment from the current very low interest rates are comforted that just holding onto their bond funds will in 4 or 7 years will bring them back to even in nominal dollars. It seems to be t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 01, 2013 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Experts and Bogleheadism
Replies: 33
Views: 2243

Re: Experts and Bogleheadism

Brad wrote: baw703916 » Sat Nov 30, 2013 7:08 pm Fellow Bogleheads, This is something that has been bothering me. The term "expert" as used on this board refers to two categories of people. There are various market prognosticators (who take a lot of criticism on this board) and then there ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 01, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Intelligence Bearish Sentiment Very Low
Replies: 26
Views: 7045

Re: Investor Intelligence Bearish Sentiment Very Low

I, too, share concerns about increasing AAII bullish sentiment and also about margin buying currently at or near record levels. Some of this optimism, perhaps much of it, is due to activities of hedge funds and managed money, which as a group for much of the year have shorted stocks, therefore massi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 30, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: intermediate corporates as bond strategy?
Replies: 25
Views: 2662

Re: intermediate corporates as bond strategy?

I know there are good arguments on both sides of the question of IG corporates versus Treasuries, but in the present environment (very low rates, end of a 30+ year bull market in bonds, rising rates likely over the next decade), I side with corporates. I do not fear call risk in a stable or rising i...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 29, 2013 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel suggests a different asset allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 5859

Re: Malkiel suggests a different asset allocation

nedsaid wrote: by nedsaid » Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:00 pm This is the old argument about bonds vs. bond alternatives. Markets are not dumb and the price of the alternatives has gone up a lot too. Bonds are expensive but so are REITs and High Dividend Stocks. Sometimes the best alternative to bonds. . .is...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 28, 2013 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT Magazine - Sam Zell Interview
Replies: 34
Views: 3405

Re: REIT Magazine - Sam Zell Interview

So Sam Zell , a real estate guy, is optimistic on REITS, especially foreign REITS. That piece of information can be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion, along with any other investment advice he offers. Real estate guys are a lot like stock brokers except they're hawking real estate instead of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 28, 2013 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Bonds more Risky than Stocks in the Long Run?
Replies: 46
Views: 5275

Re: Article: Bonds more Risky than Stocks in the Long Run?

Bustoff wrote: This is true. However, it is possible to reduce risk considerably if one is willing to accept lower returns. Treasury bonds are riskless. SPIA's and delaying SS until 70 are also options for securing future living expenses. Both Treasuries and SPIAs are subject to considerable loss wh...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 27, 2013 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO Expected Return Approach (also "The Paradox of Wealth")
Replies: 10
Views: 1718

Re: GMO Expected Return Approach (also "The Paradox of Wealt

Nisi wrote by nisiprius » Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:28 pm I never believed the fashionable optimism of the 1990s and I don't believe the fashionable pessimism of today. Well put. I can remember many times in the 26 years that I've been investing when a huge majority of financial pundits screamed either &qu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 24, 2013 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Invest for Retirement with Rick Ferri
Replies: 11
Views: 3535

Re: How to Invest for Retirement with Rick Ferri

I listened to your latest conference call, 3rd quarter 2013, Rick, and you are generous to make this objective analysis available at no cost to everyone. In contrast to many throughout the 2009 - 2013 time period, you have consistently been rational, insightful, and optimistic on equities throughout...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 22, 2013 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 189
Views: 24342

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Looks fairly good also in my opinion for SCV exposure.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 21, 2013 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Slice and Dicers"
Replies: 39
Views: 3738

Re: "Slice and Dicers"

I break up international holdings not by market cap but 50% EM and 50% DM, and also in both areas 50% large cap and 50% small cap. Increasing EM and small cap exposure increases volatility but also increases diversification versus US equities and expected long term returns in my opinion. I do this m...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs worth the trouble?
Replies: 23
Views: 4767

Re: REITs worth the trouble?

Taylor wrote Total Stock Market Index Fund already holds the market weight in U.S. REITs. The question is whether it is worth the additional cost and complexity to overweight REITs. I can't forecast the future, but my guess is that it will not make much difference over the long term. Agree with Tayl...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations matter? Your opinion
Replies: 56
Views: 4467

Re: Valuations matter? Your opinion

I agree with nedsaid and dcmcmahon that valuations matter and that acting on them, if done properly and prudently, improves long term results. I agree with dcmcmahon's examples listed in his post and have done likewise. The benefit from such a strategy tends to maximize in extreme market conditions,...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managed futures
Replies: 6
Views: 802

Managed futures

From an article in the Washington Post. "Managed futures," a play on commodities futures contracts supposedly run by sophisticated managers did in fact make those managers and the brokers who sold these products lots of money, over 400 million dollars. Unfortunately over a ten year period,...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 15, 2013 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crazy Talk
Replies: 7
Views: 2017

Re: Crazy Talk

The article is about a bigger problem than equity bond mix in asset allocation. John Bogle has also commented on the fact that baby boomers have not in general adequately prepared for retirement and their financial needs in many, perhaps most, cases will be well in excess of their income stream. The...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?
Replies: 44
Views: 8799

Re: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?

I currently have a little over 10% cash in my asset allocation and have had that level for about a year. I shifted some of my intermediate term bond funds into cash last year fearing the 5+ year duration risk of intermediate funds. I consider cash as "safe money" that is to say totally non...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We're not in an Equity Bubble
Replies: 61
Views: 8919

Re: We're not in an Equity Bubble

I agree that we are not in an equity bubble, but I do think current valuations are slightly generous relative to historical averages based on PE1 and especially on PE10. I do not expect a crash going forward but do expect that future equity returns, while positive and greater than bond returns, will...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 06, 2013 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Bonds more Risky than Stocks in the Long Run?
Replies: 46
Views: 5275

Re: Article: Bonds more Risky than Stocks in the Long Run?

Stocks are doubtless more volatile than bonds and are capable of great losses (50%+) in a short period of time. Bonds have less downside risk in the short term but over longer periods of time, greater than a decade, their returns tend to underperform stocks and be very vulnerable to inflation. Bond ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason to think highly leveraged companies return more?
Replies: 5
Views: 766

Re: Any reason to think highly leveraged companies return mo

One would expect that the stocks of companies of higher leverage would be more volatile due to their higher risk profile. Volatility works to your favor in an up market like the bull market we've had for the last 4 years. Hence, their outsized returns recently. When the market tanks, volatility is n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 02, 2013 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Get out of bond funds"
Replies: 147
Views: 27391

Re: "Get out of bond funds"

I think a 100% equity position is appropriate for most who are early in the accumulating phase, say in their 20s or 30s. This, of course, is investing money that you feel confident that you're not going to need in the future to meet expenses. All bonds offer such a person is psychological comfort wh...