Search found 1510 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a house as investment
Replies: 14
Views: 1811

Re: Buying a house as investment

There is no problem with buying a house to live in. There is a potential problem with parking a large percentage of either ones assets or future income into down payments or monthly mortgage payments on the theory of leveraging the house investment. In a serious down market, residential housing is i...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looks like market forces are taking things into own hands
Replies: 13
Views: 1928

Re: Looks like market forces are taking things into own hand

It is interesting that today stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, EM, DM, REITs, basically everything dropped significantly, unlike 2008 when stocks tanked and bonds gained. No place other than cash offered any relief today. Why? It is likely that we're 2 years away from the time when the Fed actually ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marc Faber: Closet Indexer and well diversified
Replies: 46
Views: 7618

Re: Marc Faber: Closet Indexer and well diversified

Marc Faber has been a commodities bull during a long and deep bear market in commodities, a gold bull as gold prices collapsed, and a bear on US equities during much of the period when the US markets rallied to new highs in all indexes. To put it mildly his vision into the economic future isn't 20/2...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 19, 2013 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A thought on net worth 'skewedness'
Replies: 53
Views: 4649

Re: A thought on net worth 'skewedness'

In the accumulation phase when I was working I was the leveraged person. Now that I'm retired I have no debt at all, only assets, and that is a much more comfortable position to be in from my point of view. It lowers my need for monthly income to meet payments for mortgage, consumer debts, etc.. I h...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprising 10 yr performance for VWEAX
Replies: 6
Views: 1633

Re: Surprising 10 yr performance for VWEAX

I rode this happy HY train for a decade but recently closed out my position. I believe that currently, after such an outstanding and long bull market, HY dividends do not adequately reflect their default risk. In the almost frantic search for yield in this bond bull market, many very low quality fir...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do commodities/CCFs belong in an investment portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 3554

Re: Do commodities/CCFs belong in an investment portfolio?

Simple answer to the question. No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 17, 2013 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a realistic worst-case scenario for TIPS fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 5375

Re: What's a realistic worst-case scenario for TIPS fund?

dmcmahonb wrote: It seems that your real point is that bonds with better coupon rates have shorter durations and won't be hit as badly if expectations change - I certainly wouldn't dispute that point, but it would seem to be true of both TIPS and nominals. If I've got the wrong end of the stick here...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 16, 2013 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Increasing International Equity %
Replies: 63
Views: 8258

Re: Vanguard - Increasing International Equity %

I don't know for certain but I do suspect that the reason why Vanguard has increased exposure to international equities in their strategic funds is due to the changes in valuations of the basic fundamentals of DM, EM relative to US markets. DM and EM are having more economic woes in general at prese...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 13, 2013 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds
Replies: 115
Views: 11656

Re: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds

Financial markets are inherently unpredictable, but one thing that is as close to a certainty as one ever gets in discerning the future is that over the next 10 - 15 years, stocks will outperform bonds and probably by a significant margin. Bonds are at the end of a 30 year bull market offering absur...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 13, 2013 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on SS as fixed income
Replies: 35
Views: 2715

Re: Bogle on SS as fixed income

YDNAL wrote: When the Equity Market drops 50% and this investor sees $150,000 in savings - then decides to sell: 1. Mr. Bogle wouldn't feel very good about his suggestion. Mr. Bogle wouldn't sell after a 50% drop in the market. It is entirely irrational to sell a solid, if volatile, asset such as TS...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 13, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do so many ignore the evidence
Replies: 43
Views: 5680

Re: why do so many ignore the evidence

I personally didn't evaluate the evidence when I started seriously investing 25 years ago. It seemed intuitively obvious that a fund manager could produce results better than average. It also seemed intuitively obvious that a "financial advisor" who was familiar with financial markets coul...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GNMA downward spiral
Replies: 24
Views: 5186

Re: GNMA downward spiral

TIPS fund is down more than GNMA. All intermediate term and long term bond funds are coming under selling pressure now. GNMA might be suffering a bit more because of its duration characteristics. Those who hold very low interest rate mortgages keep them as rates go up, which means that the average d...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 11, 2013 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Roth: "At long last, a forecast worth heeding"
Replies: 31
Views: 5109

Re: Alan Roth: "At long last, a forecast worth heeding"

I think that as usual Alan's got it right. Personally, I'm not in the CD camp for fixed income but that also is an alternative that all of us should at least consider in a fixed income environment like this where there is no really attractive place to be. Safe fixed income yields are currently a jok...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 11, 2013 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 10099

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

The majority of boomers are not financially prepared for retirement. I don't think that is debatable considering average life expectancy, average cost of living, and average portfolio size which is exceptionally low. There are many exceptions, most Bogleheads for example, but for the many boomers, t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the New Normal 2PM June 11
Replies: 5
Views: 1149

Re: Investing in the New Normal 2PM June 11

I used to follow Mauldin's weekly commentaries about the economy, the markets, and his investment strategy. He was very pessimistic about buy and hold for the stock market a few years ago and much more optimistic about commodities. He foresaw a market crash which didn't occur. The way history has pl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 10099

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

I think the article makes some good points. Basically most boomers are unprepared for retirement. Many of us will have to choose between 3 strategies or some combination of the three to fund an adequate retirement. 1)Work longer. 2)Spend less. 3)Increase portfolio equity exposure at the expense of b...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Waiting For a Good Stock to Go Low Enough To Buy
Replies: 28
Views: 2561

Re: Waiting For a Good Stock to Go Low Enough To Buy

I believe it was Warren Buffett who attributed this comment to Ben Graham: "In the short run, the market is a popularity contest. In the long run it is a weighing machine." It's the concept rather than the exact wording that is important. Whether Ben Graham wrote it exactly that way or not...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 07, 2013 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a realistic worst-case scenario for TIPS fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 5375

Re: What's a realistic worst-case scenario for TIPS fund?

The absolute worst case scenario would happen if interest rates rise much greater than inflation. The two historically tend to rise together in tandem, but not always. TIPS are protected from inflation risk but not interest rate risk. If investors for any reason lose confidence in our economy or gov...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 07, 2013 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Passive vs Active bet for Bogleheads.
Replies: 23
Views: 2756

Re: A Passive vs Active bet for Bogleheads.

I also own a couple of actively managed funds, including Emerging Market Select Fund which has since inception easily outperformed the Vanguard EM index fund (dominated by large cap EM companies often with close and corrupt ties to government) and the Explorer Value Fund which has also outperformed ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 07, 2013 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stretching for yield keep an eye on valuations
Replies: 3
Views: 399

Re: stretching for yield keep an eye on valuations

I agree with Larry's points and I think REITS and high dividend stocks are overvalued. On a fundamental basis, US REITS have in my opinion been overvalued for a long time and I closed out my position more than a year ago in favor of TSM. Another thing that bothers me about overvalued REITS is that i...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 06, 2013 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stunning new bond volatility? What chart should I use?
Replies: 22
Views: 2286

Re: Stunning new bond volatility? What chart should I use?

I believe the story behind the article is that fear and shock hooks readers to read an article of highly questionable merit. "Bond Volatility Sending Grim Message To Market" rings the fear bell loudly and I suspect the author is more concerned with increasing readership numbers than with a...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Bogle: Yesterday Sound & Fury Signifying Nothing
Replies: 16
Views: 2839

Re: Vanguard's Bogle: Yesterday Sound & Fury Signifying Noth

As usual for Jack, great interview, a few pearls of wisdom tossed into the huge volume of CNBC short term trading garbage.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese financial crisis
Replies: 48
Views: 5316

Re: Japanese financial crisis

The B of J's aggressive actions are but one example, perhaps the most striking but definitely not alone, of worldwide central bank policies attempting to stimulate high debt, low growth economies with unconventional and often untried tactics. These policies have never before in history been done to ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on NPR this a.m.
Replies: 99
Views: 14654

Re: John Bogle on NPR this a.m.

Nisiprius wrote By the way... Social Security is only worth $250,000 to $300,000 at the start of retirement. It seems to me that as you receive payments, the present value of Social Security would steadily decline. Certainly the cost of the equivalent annuity is lower at age 75 than at 65. This impl...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2013)
Replies: 8
Views: 1221

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2013)

"Hot hands" seems to capture the elusive "momentum" factor. Would be interested in Larry's comments on this since he has mentioned that factor on the forum. I am not a momentum investor and never will be, but the long term out-performance of "hot hands" relative to the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads reducing duration of bond holdings?
Replies: 15
Views: 3040

Are Bogleheads reducing duration of bond holdings?

In view of the increased sensitivity of intermediate term bond funds to rising interest rates relative to short term bond funds, are any of you shifting a portion of your intermediate term bond funds into short or limited term funds to decrease overall bond portfolio duration, and hence interest rat...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 14, 2013 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence
Replies: 172
Views: 16217

Re: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence

Let's see... the value factor is supposed to be more persistent and positive than the size factor or the market factor. However, recent evidence suggests that MOM, a growth factor, is also persistent and positive. Now we have another positive factor, profitability, associated with growth. So two fac...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 11, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 122
Views: 21766

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

One reason I have reservations about SCV index funds in general is the high percentage of REITS, which I consider overvalued, in their portfolios. REITS have done very well indeed for more than a decade and this has provided a nice tailwind for SCV returns. They have done so well for so long that I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 11, 2013 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying equities during retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2080

Re: Buying equities during retirement

I rebalance into stocks according to my asset allocation model when the market tanks. The lower equity prices go, keeping stable percentages in asset allocation necessarily shifts assets from high quality bond instruments into riskier areas. When equities recover, shifting back into bonds according ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 11, 2013 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities, anyone?
Replies: 149
Views: 12233

Re: 100% equities, anyone?

I have done 100% stocks earlier in my life and even though I'm a risk taker by nature, that roller coaster got a bit too scary for me in the tech collapse of 2000-2003. I held on to all my equity positions until the market recovered, then shifted into some bonds, promising myself that I would never ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 08, 2013 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone still waiting for a market dip before investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 4580

Re: Anyone still waiting for a market dip before investing?

Taylor wrote: Most of us have an investing lifetime of 40 years or more. I started investing at the age of 26 in 1950. The S&P 500 fluctuated between 17 and 20 in 1950. Today the S&P is over 1,600. Lesson learned: It doesn't matter when you invest. Do it now and stay the course. Best wishes....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 08, 2013 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now's the time to buy bonds - Gundlach
Replies: 15
Views: 4026

Re: Now's the time to buy bonds - Gundlach

Gundlach has an impressive track record recently, but like the numerous fallen hedge fund stars, Paulson comes to mind, they're all brilliant and insightful until they're not and they wind up losing a lot of money for their investors. He has in recent years taken on a lot of risk, buying non-govt. b...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 08, 2013 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1160

Re: What's the alternative to a "stock's pickers market" ?

For those who derive generous fees for "picking stocks" it is always a stock pickers market.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 06, 2013 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A graphic on the role of bonds
Replies: 54
Views: 7935

Re: A graphic on the role of bonds

Question: If you are holding your bonds for the long term, what does it matter if they drop in value during a equity market collapse as long as they not only come back to the value of Treasuries but in the years after the collapse they consistently surpass the value of Treasuries. In the long term r...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 06, 2013 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should a buy and hold investor shorten bond duration?
Replies: 18
Views: 2222

Re: Why should a buy and hold investor shorten bond duration

I think John3754 summed it up well. Long term investment money that you know you won't need for many years can remain in intermediate term funds. Money that you might need in the next 5 years might be more safe from losses in short term funds in a rising interest rate environment. I keep in my perso...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 05, 2013 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 5444

Re: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds

The lack on instant liquidity without incurring penalties is why I do not and will not own CDs. I don't like the idea of having my money locked up until the maturity date, unless I pay a penalty which reduces gains which are already bad in this yield-free environment. One of the main reasons I hold ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 04, 2013 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A good day to take some money off the table
Replies: 96
Views: 9037

Re: A good day to take some money off the table

Although investing in the stock market has risk, it clearly has rewards for those who have the stomach to ride out the downturns. Gambling on the other hand is a zero sum game where there is no expected long term return for the gambling group as a whole. By definition, winners can win no more than l...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 03, 2013 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A good day to take some money off the table
Replies: 96
Views: 9037

Re: A good day to take some money off the table

The stock market is inherently unpredictable. As the saying goes, there are two types of investors: those who don't know where the stock market is going and those who don't know they don't know where it is going. Many large hedge fund managers (bear in mind these guys get paid in millions, tens of m...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 01, 2013 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing with options + bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1331

Re: Investing with options + bonds

I agree with Nisi that "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch." With all the institutional and professionally managed money chasing the unattainable paradox of low risk with high return at the same time, the market sets a price on the stock options that effectively kills all the alpha....
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 25, 2013 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interview with Ed Hyman and Dennis Strattman on PBS
Replies: 1
Views: 592

Interview with Ed Hyman and Dennis Strattman on PBS

Below is the web address for the PBS interview with Ed Hyman who has been voted the number one economist on Wall Street for an unprecedented 33 consecutive years. Ed comes across very modest and low key but his yearly economic projections are in my opinion worth listening to for those interested in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: not all value metrics are equal
Replies: 1
Views: 345

Re: not all value metrics are equal

Interesting post, Larry. The question is whether the increased costs of implementing such a strategy (increased turnover, more expense, less tax efficiency) outweighs the expected benefits over a P/BM strategy which has less turnover and implementation costs. The issue with value strategies it seems...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a stock bubble?
Replies: 49
Views: 5306

Re: Are we in a stock bubble?

No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 18, 2013 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares Enters Factor Investing Market in a Big Way
Replies: 41
Views: 4066

Re: iShares Enters Factor Investing Market in a Big Way

Simple question: Will all the new products competing to exploit the FF size and value premiums overgraze the available S&V premiums and reduce returns to the just the equity premium? It seems to me that most equity investments now are done by institutions and professionals, all of whom are famil...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back
Replies: 25
Views: 4547

Re: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back

It's not just that low down payments increase default risk (strategic defaults). The problem is that the US government, not the borrower or the lender, takes on that risk through GNMA, Freddie, Fannie, FHA, etc.. Government purchases of those mortgages shifts the risk burden to the taxpayer. If bank...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1763

Re: Why Bonds?

All posts, both pro-bond and pro-equity, point to one conclusion. You need both in your portfolio to balance risk aversion with long reward seeking. Each of us must decide where this balance is optimal for his own circumstances. There is no right answer in my opinion for everyone. I overweight stock...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 13, 2013 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Fundamentals matter" but they are not determinant.
Replies: 49
Views: 3760

Re: "Fundamentals matter" but they are not determinant.

LH quote If fundamentals matter, in any meaningful sense, then why is there not a mutual fund that exploits the "fundamentals that matter" and beat index funds. "fundamentals matter" doesnt mean anything......... Its not something one can take action on with expectant success rel...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J Bogle article: Total Corporate Bond Index Fund
Replies: 60
Views: 10164

Re: J Bogle article: Total Corporate Bond Index Fund

In my opinion, the greatest risk to bonds at this point is not the default risk of corporate bonds on which most people focus. Rather it is the risk of principal loss in a rising interest rate environment (which can happen with or without increasing inflation rates. This risk correlates best with th...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis says stay out of bonds
Replies: 122
Views: 13013

Re: Charles Ellis says stay out of bonds

I totally agree with CyberBob and SpaceCommander on this one. I have already lowered my bond allocation to 25% of my portfolio, anticipating a zero or slightly negative real return on bonds over the next decade. I am keeping some bonds as an anchor for stormy times and I plan to rebalance into stock...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 10, 2013 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to hold bonds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 10
Views: 1116

Re: A reason to hold bonds in taxable accounts?

I think that it can be important for some investors, myself included, to hold a core of safe money market funds plus short term-intermediate term high quality bonds in a taxable account that is sufficient to provide all living expenses for two to three years. This allows one to sleep at night when s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 05, 2013 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regarding V Tot Bond Mkt I vs Short Term Invest Gr I
Replies: 5
Views: 1172

Re: Regarding V Tot Bond Mkt I vs Short Term Invest Gr I

Munir wrote: Why is the Short Term Investment Grade doing better YTD than Total Bond Index when interest rates have not changed much during this period- not that such a short period of time means much anyway? Because investors fearing the negative effects of rising interest rates on longer duration...