Search found 1332 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#
Replies: 10
Views: 1616

Re: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#

To me, it is a bit confusing. Shiller at Yale, the champion of PE 10, claims that historically the PE 10 smoothes out the noise and is a more accurate predictive measure of FUTURE equity returns than is current PE. He bases this on historical back testing, just as the "SCV premium" is base...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs Junk for inflation protection
Replies: 8
Views: 1281

Re: TIPS vs Junk for inflation protection

Occupier wrote: Note there are other problems with high yield in an inflationary environment. 1) Call risk. They can call the bonds and replace them with a lower paying set of bonds. 2) Default risk. The company issuing the high yield bond might go out of business. I believe that Larry, certainly n...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2012 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.
Replies: 6
Views: 2194

Re: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.

Pinelson wrote: What makes you think so? Referring to my assertion that, unlike Japan in 1990, the current US equity market has risk baked into its valuations. PE ratios of Japan in 1989 and 1990 were 60 - 80. Current S&P 500 ratio is 15.5, that is to say a earnings yield of about 6.5%, more th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: mega caps ready to rally?
Replies: 12
Views: 1388

Re: mega caps ready to rally?

I believe that at present mega caps in particular and large caps in general have more attractive valuations in terms of PE ratios and earnings growth rates than do small caps or mid caps. These valuations are due to more than a decade of LC underperformance following the bursting of the tech stock b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.
Replies: 6
Views: 2194

Re: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.

I think the message is a solid one and one which investors should take into account in the expected returns of their current asset allocation models. It is about time for Vanguard, which often cautions on the risks of equities, of long term bonds, of corporate bonds, of high yield bonds, of emerging...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 7750

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Bonds are the anchor against portfolio volatility and have a valid role to play whether we're about to enter a bond bear market or not. No argument about that. The question each of us must answer for ourselves is the relative weights of bonds and stocks in the asset allocation model we're comfortabl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 7750

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Nisiprius wrote: Rick Ferri slipped in two fairly big assumptions. When he said "If the price of stocks go nowhere for 10 years..." as if that were a worst-case assumption, but of course the price of stocks could go down. It's not as if it hasn't happened before. The second point is that ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?
Replies: 99
Views: 23046

Re: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?

I have a question about the nature of risk in retirement planning that no one seems to emphasize in discussing risk. In my opinion that risk may turn out to be far greater than the risk of a portfolio tilted too far toward equity in the glide path to retirement. That risk is simply that 10 or 20 yea...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard interview Malkiel
Replies: 3
Views: 1443

Re: Vanguard interview Malkiel

Excellent article. I agree 100% with Malkiel both on the issues of investing in EM for its underlying fundamentals and of not joining the lemmings rushing out of stocks and into bonds. I believe that the future will prove him right on both counts.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at high yield bonds
Replies: 121
Views: 9529

Re: Another look at high yield bonds

I respectfully disagree with Larry, on the point that "high yield has not been efficient in a portfolio, the only right way to look at it." This statement touches on what I believe to be an important point. Is there only one right way to look at it? Models like MPT and F&F are intellec...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at high yield bonds
Replies: 121
Views: 9529

Re: Another look at high yield bonds

I think that HY gets an unjustified bad rap sometimes on this forum. I have been in the Vanguard HYB fund for many years and have enjoyed excellent returns. I believe that HY is a unique asset class that has a unique risk/reward relationship and recovers from its serious declines much, much faster t...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 10, 2012 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for the Retired
Replies: 49
Views: 5695

Re: Question for the Retired

Retired in Oct. 1997. Have never had more than 35% bonds. Still going strong even though it has at times been a scary roller coaster ride. Started out with 100% stocks, mostly tech stocks which were on a tear for 2.5 years, more than doubling in value, then the bottom dropped out. Learned a hard les...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Investment Models Do Not Exist
Replies: 19
Views: 2435

Re: Optimal Investment Models Do Not Exist

Thanks for this article, Rick. The longer I invest and the more carefully I observe the market, the less I believe that any "perfect model portfolio" will outperform TSM or other broad market indexes over any set period of time in the future. Broadly based index funds have the undeniable a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aggressive Bogleheads Portfolio
Replies: 51
Views: 4841

Re: Aggressive Bogleheads Portfolio

I agree with mptfan about high yield bonds and my opinion is that the strong biases against them in this forum are not entirely rational for all investors. I personally have held VWEHX for years and have never, even in the depths of the 2008 collapse, regretted it. In fact at that dire point, the fu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All the news isn't bad
Replies: 15
Views: 2366

Re: All the news isn't bad

Excellent post, Larry. Thanks for adding some perspective to the avalanche of worrisome news.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swim with Jim Radio Show
Replies: 1
Views: 591

Re: Swim with Jim Radio Show

Great interview. We are fortunate on the Boglehead's forum to be able to access Rick's keen insights and well researched point of view on investing and asset allocation.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: death of equities interview on BNN (Canada)
Replies: 10
Views: 1256

Re: death of equities interview on BNN (Canada)

Superb interview showing a striking contrast between the two interviewers and Larry. The interviewers seem to have modest intellectual capacity, limited knowledge, and tend, like most TV market commentators, to be weather vanes spun by sentiment based on the last market news item to hit the airwaves...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 06, 2012 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads tend to hold more bonds?
Replies: 67
Views: 10271

Re: Why do Bogleheads tend to hold more bonds?

by staythecourse » Sat Jun 02, 2012 11:31 am As much as NO ONE wants to admit it the answer is recency bias and as mentioned in Four Pillars is: Myopic Risk Aversion. The second is understandable if one is retired and you don't have human capital to make up losses and are living off your assets. I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You can't avoid crises but you can plan for them
Replies: 25
Views: 2844

Re: You can't avoid crises but you can plan for them

I think Larry's post makes excellent points. In general two things are very destructive in a severe bear markets. First, leverage which magnifies all losses. Most of us who follow this forum seem to successfully avoid leverage in stocks, but leverage of 5 to 1 or even 10 to 1 is a common element in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 31, 2012 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2
Replies: 36
Views: 2709

Re: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2

I tend to agree with Cut-Throat and k-slice and act accordingly with my finances. I have been retired for 15 years, only got SS 3 years ago and have lived solely off of investments other than that. I have never accepted the "glide path concept" and have never during that time had more than...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2012 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond markets defy experts
Replies: 96
Views: 7227

Re: bond markets defy experts

The examples given do in fact show that if you're willing to by very long durations TIPS, 15+ years, your return equals inflation,your returns can in fact beat inflation by a fraction of 1%. But the amount of the return greater than inflation is so small, a little over 0.6% if you buy a 30 year TIPS...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2012 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond markets defy experts
Replies: 96
Views: 7227

Re: bond markets defy experts

by hsv_climber » Thu May 10, 2012 1:17 pm If you are afraid of inflation then buy TIPS / I-bonds. TIPS currently guarantee that your return will be LESS than inflation. The current yield on the Vanguard TIPS fund is -.82%, meaning that you lose almost one percent to whatever inflation turns out to ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2012 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond markets defy experts
Replies: 96
Views: 7227

Re: bond markets defy experts

Tom_T wrote If rates continued to rise one percent a year, however, you would remain ahead, because at that point you'd be earning more than what a rate hike costs you: Year 1: lose 5%, earn 3% Year 2: lose 5%, earn 4% Year 3: lose 5%, earn 5% Year 4: lose 5%, earn 6% Year 5: lose 5%, earn 7% Year ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 08, 2012 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Discount Value of Low Fees Over the Long Term
Replies: 1
Views: 511

Re: Don't Discount Value of Low Fees Over the Long Term

Excellent post, Taylor. Thanks for bringing to our attention this critical fact that you'll never get from your broker (if you have one) or from any active management mutual fund company. In an investment world full of risk and uncertainty, low cost is one of the very few things that can always be c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 07, 2012 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund danger with Rising rates
Replies: 20
Views: 3611

))

There are a couple of points to consider in the nice Vanguard research chart showing impressive bond returns >100% during the period of increasing bond yields 1975 -- 1983. First of all inflation during the period which averaged 8.2% annually (measured by CPI) through the entire 9 year period. Cumul...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 03, 2012 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DFA fixed income portfolio, 30 years on
Replies: 46
Views: 2474

Re: The DFA fixed income portfolio, 30 years on

I tend to agree with Yobria that there is a strong tendency in all segments of the market to revert to the mean. The longer and more dramatic the positive run a particular segment of the market has experienced in the near and medium term years past, be it Treasuries versus spread product in bonds, v...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 73
Views: 5040

Re: Emerging Markets

- You claim VGT earnings are growing 2.8x the S&P 500, 5x VB, and "light years away" from VBR. The truth: VGT LTG = 12.98, IVV (S&P Proxy) LTG = 10.34, VBR LTG = 9.6, VB LTG = 11.87 - You claim VGT PE is 28% less then VB "while having a growth rate 5x." The truth: VGT PE...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 73
Views: 5040

Re: Emerging Markets

FinanceFun in comparing fundamentals VTI with VGT wrote: VTI numbers from Morningstar and are "as of 12/31". QQQ are "as of 3/31"... so not total apples to apples. But NOT 2-5x difference as you think it is. I agree that it is not an apples to apples comparison. The numbers and ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 73
Views: 5040

Re: Emerging Markets

Yobria wrote: When a corner of the market has outperformed recently, it can be hard to see why you'd ever want to diversify away from it. When the risk shows up, however, it becomes clear as day. In reply, let me say that I increased my position in EM not now, after it has gone up, but late last yea...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 73
Views: 5040

Re: Emerging Markets

Taylor Larimore wrote: 1. Care to share your entire portfolio? (Dollar-amounts not needed, but percentage and location of each security would be helpful.) 2. How has your portfolio performed? 3. Do you consider yourself a market-timer? Thank you for you kind comments, Taylor, and for moderating this...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 73
Views: 5040

Re: Emerging Markets

This may sound like heresy to Bogleheads, but 100% of my international stock allocation is in VWO. I have no international developed market position at all for several reasons. First I use international to diversify my huge position in TSM (47% of my entire portfolio) and VWO is much more volatile i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is small cap value outperformance going to continue
Replies: 54
Views: 5073

Is small cap value outperformance going to continue

Clearly research going back to 1927 has until recent years shown impressive outperformance of small cap value over all large cap styles, all mid cap styles, and also over small cap growth. However quite clearly, current small cap value performance as measured by the Vanguard fund of that name lags t...

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