Search found 1375 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Second Look at P/E Ratios (Part II)
Replies: 2
Views: 485

Re: A Second Look at P/E Ratios (Part II)

Very interesting. Thanks for posting. Let's hope the market's apparent expectation of increased economic growth going forward is on target.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond versus Equity Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1883

Re: Bond versus Equity Risk

Jerry_lee wrote Of course, we are comparing 100% HY to mixed stock/bond allocations, when some prefer to look at adding HY to already balanced stock/bond allocations, but that is beyond the scope of this thread and the OP. I agree that 100% HY is an absurd asset allocation. All I am saying is that a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3488

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

Abuss368 wrote: I would be a lot more interested in the fund if the purchase fee was removed and the management fee was significantly lowered. Rather than pay the 0.25% purchase fee, the 0.25% redemption fee, and the 0.5% annual expense fee with the fund you can own the very same holdings in the Van...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond versus Equity Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1883

Re: Bond versus Equity Risk

Jerry_lee wrote: (1) 15% S&P 500, 15% US large value, 20% US small value, 50% 5YR T-Notes RET = +10.4% SD = 8.7 (2) 100% Barclays HY Corporate Bond Index RET = +9.6% SD = 8.8 You make a good point but there are problems with this analysis. First of all, the dates chosen, 1983 -2012, the exact d...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: endowments performance and viability of Yale model
Replies: 4
Views: 754

Re: endowments performance and viability of Yale model

Excellent post. More confirmation that Bogleheads with low cost index funds are on the right track.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 23, 2012 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Most Difficult Investment Conditions I've Ever Seen
Replies: 53
Views: 7612

Re: Bogle: Most Difficult Investment Conditions I've Ever Se

A sobering but probably correct analysis of how it looks now going forward to an intelligent, thoughtful, knowledgeable, and experienced observer. There is no sure and safe place to hide out now and make a bundle. I agree with the tone and content of his message, but it's important to recognize that...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are for safety.
Replies: 47
Views: 6193

Re: Bonds are for safety.

How safe are bonds during a long term inflationary environment? Not in nominal dollars, but in real inflation-adjusted dollars, starting from an absurdly low interest rate environment like today. How safe is it to have 60% or even 80% of all your investment assets locked away in something that retur...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consider the Price-to-Peak Earnings ratio
Replies: 25
Views: 3869

Re: Consider the Price-to-Peak Earnings ratio

Very interesting. Look forward to part 2. Thanks for the post.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reason for REIT Outperformance
Replies: 8
Views: 1773

Re: Reason for REIT Outperformance

There are a number of reasons for the outperformance of REITs, especially in recent years. Some have been mentioned in this discussion, but there is another that perhaps hasn't been emphasized. In a low to no yield bond environment like ours today, yield hungry investors have flocked to them and, un...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market Index Fund Wins Award!
Replies: 54
Views: 5659

Re: Total Stock Market Index Fund Wins Award!

I find it hard to believe that anyone argues vociferously against Vanguard's TSM index funds. It is the core holding in my US equity position and its low cost and wide diversification offers excellent exposure to the US market. Whether a SCV value fund will outperform TSM going forward for 1, 5, or ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Outlook Not so Good?
Replies: 10
Views: 1919

Re: Bond Outlook Not so Good?

With 20 or 30 years to go until retirement you can easily afford to take short and intermediate term risk in equities in return for the expected long term outperformance of stocks. I am 65, have been retired for 15 years, and I still have 70% of my portfolio in stocks because I believe strongly that...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Financial Advisory Services
Replies: 9
Views: 1960

Re: Vanguard Financial Advisory Services

What about setting her up with Rick Ferri who seems knowledgeable, experienced, honest, highly competent. He uses low expense, no load index funds and his advisory fees are modest.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Best One Line of Wisdom
Replies: 238
Views: 17953

Re: Your Best One Line of Wisdom

This, too, shall pass.
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3488

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

Yes, 5% of assets in VNQI (lower cost and no transaction fees relative to mutual fund with same holdings), held in IRA because it is tax inefficient. My only REIT position because I believe from a fundamental point of view US REITS are currently overvalued.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Equities: Light at the End of the Tunnel
Replies: 9
Views: 1295

Re: US Equities: Light at the End of the Tunnel

I agree with both the tone and the content of the M* article and my portfolio has been and continues to demonstrate that (70% equities, 30% bonds). I think the likelihood that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 1 - 2 decades is extremely high and that investor risk aversion after 12 years of...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 7943

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Clearly_Irrational wrote: Personally I just don't think ex-US developed is enough different from the US to be worth it. Good point, totally agree. EM offers diversification benefits relative to US equities over and above developed international which often move in lock step to a closer degree with ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 7943

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Like Gus Sauter, my portfolio concentrates on US equities (almost all TSM) and emerging markets. The growth engine of the world in recent years has been emerging markets and that will continue to be the case as far as the eye can see into the future. All developed markets including the US have the s...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Master Limited Partnerships
Replies: 13
Views: 1770

Re: Master Limited Partnerships

MLPs are well and continuously milked cash cows for those who set them up, those who market them, and those who manage them. For that reason, those three groups tout them highly to potential investors. Not so great for investors. They are difficult and often complex from a tax point of view, often i...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Glidepath Illusion (it doesn't work)
Replies: 133
Views: 12384

Re: The Glidepath Illusion (it doesn't work)

I agree with the tone of Arnott's article and even though I'm 65 I still have 70% invested in equities. I do not personally accept the glide path concept at all. But it is not a question of knowledge or intelligence or research but rather one of temperament. If one cannot emotionally tolerate the in...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: Bernstein vs. Swedroe and Ferri
Replies: 96
Views: 12881

Re: Bonds: Bernstein vs. Swedroe and Ferri

This divergence of opinion on a simple question like this demonstrates that all experts don't agree on everything and that there is often a wide divergence of opinion. You can find an expert who strongly justifies almost any position in asset allocation decisions. It is amusing and educational to wa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA. Now 60/40. Thinking of 70/30.
Replies: 25
Views: 2762

Re: AA. Now 60/40. Thinking of 70/30.

You're age 41 and don't need the money in the short term. You have a long time horizon for your investments. In my opinion that agues vehemently against keeping 40% or even 30% of your assets in bonds, which are currently grossly overvalued in my opinion relative to stocks (E/P 10 year Treasury abou...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 22, 2012 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A junk bond's effective risk less than its rating?
Replies: 14
Views: 1182

Re: A junk bond's effective risk less than its rating?

Totally agree with Rick on this one.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Vgd bond funds will do best over the next 5-10 years?
Replies: 20
Views: 2546

Re: Which Vgd bond funds will do best over the next 5-10 yea

The question is the balance you wish to strike between the return of your money (safety, capital preservation) and the return on your money (capital appreciation), a risk/reward tradeoff. Most Bogleheads believe the role of bonds in a portfolio is to to reduce the inherent risk and volatility of sto...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Your (TSM) Equity Bet Pay Off?
Replies: 222
Views: 11702

Re: Will Your (TSM) Equity Bet Pay Off?

Jerry_Lee wrote You need to ask the question? Of course, (almost) everyone knows that (I'm a fee-only advisor). I benefit if more people buy small or value stocks? Stocks too, right? My posts will make the stock market go higher? And, obviously, that I post anonymously eliminates any chance of anyt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: No TIPS/Inflation Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 8540

Re: Bogle: No TIPS/Inflation Bonds

It seems that Mr. Bogle does in fact do modest to minimal tactical changes in his portfolio based on his perceptions of current reality (i.e.market timing). So what? As Emerson said, "Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Bogle is in my opinion merely demonstrating that he...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Rates Went Up?
Replies: 16
Views: 2216

Re: Why Rates Went Up?

Mr.B's actions increase the chances for inflation as a problem in the long term. It also puts a lid on interest rates for 3 years. Both of these make bonds less desirable as investment prospects going forward and increase the relative appeal of risk assets versus safe assets. One would therefore exp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu's Emerging FF Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 2635

Re: Jason Hsu's Emerging FF Factors

I have recently taken a position in EWX, my only non-Vanguard fund and one of the reasons was its strength in FF factors. It does appear according to Morningstar to be a value fund with exposure to smaller mid-caps (<2Bil), small caps, and even some microcaps. Another reason I found it compelling ha...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1207

Re: International Allocation

Let me say, first of all, that you must find a balance between risk and reward that you are comfortable with. Many Bogleheads have what seems to me a low tolerance for risk, perhaps because they have ample assets and are more highly motivated to preserve them than to take risk to increase them. I me...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 09, 2012 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard account advantages?
Replies: 20
Views: 2794

Re: Vanguard account advantages?

It is very hard for me to criticize Vanguard. I think Vanguard is eminently trustable. In contrast to some of its competitors, Vanguard takes its fiduciary duty very seriously; it does not push product; it is not a for-profit house which bleeds off returns into questionable "new" thinly fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes DOWN?
Replies: 27
Views: 2146

Re: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes D

Nisi, I take no offense at all by anything you said and your posts are always excellent and thought provoking. We have somewhat differing points of view on this bond question, but I think it's educational and often constructive to be exposed to the points of view of others who don't totally concur w...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes DOWN?
Replies: 27
Views: 2146

Re: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes D

I don't hate bonds. I'm just not in love with them at current rates. They serve a critical function, capital preservation. In their recent 30 year secular bull market they have also had long periods of outperformance relative to stocks. The critical function of equities by contrast is long term capi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will You Respond to Bogle's Fixed Income Tilts?
Replies: 52
Views: 5231

Re: How Will You Respond to Bogle's Fixed Income Tilts?

I have no US govt. debt of any type, Treasuries, T-bills, MBS, or TIPS. I am mostly in ITIG corporate bonds, with smaller allocations to HY and ITTE. I do not have a sanguine outlook for US govt. debt. My ITTE is in my taxable account and is a bucket fund along with money market funds covering about...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes DOWN?
Replies: 27
Views: 2146

Re: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes D

Nisi's nice chart gives some solace to bond investors in a rising interest rate environment. He does however caution in his example that inflation can erode this nice picture. His example postulates that interest rates start at 2% and rise 1% a year for 8 years and he states that IF INFLATION OCCURS...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next 10 Years
Replies: 47
Views: 5724

Re: The Next 10 Years

The future is impossible for anyone to predict with reliable accuracy as you say, but I think you've done a good job of laying out the most probable scenario and offering sound and actionable advice based on the best knowledge available at this time. Realistic expectations and broad diversification ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Value tilt?
Replies: 90
Views: 8023

Re: Large Value tilt?

I pose some questions for those who slice and dice with a heavy exposure to small value. First of all let us assume that the small and value premiums are real and have worked in past according to the F&F model. Second, let us also assume, as most SV stalwarts argue, that DFS does a better job of...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate Fund
Replies: 66
Views: 9336

Re: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate F

I agree that it is not an apples to apples comparison between VNQ and VNQI, but I'm not sure that makes VNQI invalid. As for FFO for US REITS, which is said to be the best way to measure their earnings, that information is hard for me at least to come by. I believe that by law in order not to pay co...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate Fund
Replies: 66
Views: 9336

Re: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate F

I don't know why all the concern about VNQI (which has a lower expense ratio and no purchase or redemption fees in contrast the mutual fund with identical holdings) certainly relative to VNQ. I see no problem with a primarily Pacific focus (in fact I see this as a positive), nor do I have any proble...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More bad news for muni bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 4199

Re: More bad news for muni bonds

etm wrote: In CA there are constitution and statutory protections for pension payments--believe it or not. So far Federal judges have allowed these to stand. The bottom line though is that BK law is complex, as are the facts of various cities and their financial situation. From what I"ve read ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pillar of Wisdom #7 - reversion to the mean
Replies: 33
Views: 3797

Re: Pillar of Wisdom #7 - reversion to the mean

One might say that Warren Buffet's value style investing is a rare example that has employed reversion to the mean to outperform comparable large cap indexes. He tactically buys solid companies at rock bottom prices because they are unloved and waits patiently for them to revert to their mean in pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10380

Re: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio

I completely agree with Magellan on this point about HYB. It is a separate and distinct asset class and I, for one, like the trade off they offer between risk and reward. Many who decry HYBs cite "experts" with platitudes such as "take your risk in stocks, not bonds." No one ment...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10380

Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio

Taken from an interview with Bogle 2/12 posted elsewhere. Apparently he also does a small degree of tactical asset allocation himself, responding to current interest rate levels. Garland Whizzer Hougan: Do you think a traditional broad-based bond index has enough weight in corporates? Bogle: I don't...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 14, 2012 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The outlook for bonds: Are the good times about to end?
Replies: 22
Views: 2835

Re: The outlook for bonds: Are the good times about to end?

In my view, if you are SURE that you are not going to need to sell any of your investment assets over the next 20 or 30 years, I would put 100% in equities. Many people on this forum are obsessed with the "risk" of equities, believing that bonds are "safe" with the fervor of reli...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Index Funds are on a Roll--Will it Persist?"
Replies: 28
Views: 3819

Re: "Index Funds are on a Roll--Will it Persist?"

I have been investing actively for 25 years and have tried it all: stock picking, actively managed mutual funds, and index funds. I have learned, often the hard way, in that time several important points. First, index funds have a clear cost advantage over actively managed funds. Second, index funds...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#
Replies: 10
Views: 1635

Re: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#

To me, it is a bit confusing. Shiller at Yale, the champion of PE 10, claims that historically the PE 10 smoothes out the noise and is a more accurate predictive measure of FUTURE equity returns than is current PE. He bases this on historical back testing, just as the "SCV premium" is base...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs Junk for inflation protection
Replies: 8
Views: 1297

Re: TIPS vs Junk for inflation protection

Occupier wrote: Note there are other problems with high yield in an inflationary environment. 1) Call risk. They can call the bonds and replace them with a lower paying set of bonds. 2) Default risk. The company issuing the high yield bond might go out of business. I believe that Larry, certainly n...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2012 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.
Replies: 6
Views: 2201

Re: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.

Pinelson wrote: What makes you think so? Referring to my assertion that, unlike Japan in 1990, the current US equity market has risk baked into its valuations. PE ratios of Japan in 1989 and 1990 were 60 - 80. Current S&P 500 ratio is 15.5, that is to say a earnings yield of about 6.5%, more th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: mega caps ready to rally?
Replies: 12
Views: 1421

Re: mega caps ready to rally?

I believe that at present mega caps in particular and large caps in general have more attractive valuations in terms of PE ratios and earnings growth rates than do small caps or mid caps. These valuations are due to more than a decade of LC underperformance following the bursting of the tech stock b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.
Replies: 6
Views: 2201

Re: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.

I think the message is a solid one and one which investors should take into account in the expected returns of their current asset allocation models. It is about time for Vanguard, which often cautions on the risks of equities, of long term bonds, of corporate bonds, of high yield bonds, of emerging...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 7852

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Bonds are the anchor against portfolio volatility and have a valid role to play whether we're about to enter a bond bear market or not. No argument about that. The question each of us must answer for ourselves is the relative weights of bonds and stocks in the asset allocation model we're comfortabl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 7852

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Nisiprius wrote: Rick Ferri slipped in two fairly big assumptions. When he said "If the price of stocks go nowhere for 10 years..." as if that were a worst-case assumption, but of course the price of stocks could go down. It's not as if it hasn't happened before. The second point is that ...

Go to advanced search