Search found 1596 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past performance can be a good guarantee
Replies: 15
Views: 1239

Re: Past performance can be a good guarantee

grabiner wrote If good performance in bad years is the result of a conservative strategy, you'll see this in the portfolio, not just the performance numbers. A balanced fund with 50% stock is likely to outperform the average balanced fund (which has 60% stock) in a bear market. A stock fund with a 1...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund noise
Replies: 38
Views: 3748

Re: Bond fund noise

Phineas J Whopee wrote garlandwhizzer wrote: linuxier wrote 1. When stocks drop, the value might be lost forever. Where is the evidence for this? The US stock market has been very resilient over time in bouncing back from bear market lows, even the worst of them. The Dow Jones Industrial average in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bad time for bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 4542

Re: bad time for bonds?

I am definitely not a bond lover but I have learned the hard way that they are essential in a portfolio regardless of whether they earn any real return or not. As I see it, their major role in a portfolio is stability, not return. Over the last 3 - 4 years stocks have produced great returns coming o...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund noise
Replies: 38
Views: 3748

Re: Bond fund noise

linuxier wrote 1. When stocks drop, the value might be lost forever. Where is the evidence for this? The US stock market has been very resilient over time in bouncing back from bear market lows, even the worst of them. The Dow Jones Industrial average in 1900 was 68.13. In the next 100 years (not fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: These funds have beaten the Vgd Idxs over 10 yrs
Replies: 64
Views: 6993

Re: These funds have beaten the Vgd Idxs over 10 yrs

It is very easy to pick funds that have outperformed their comparable indexes over any span of time. You simply look it up. How about picking funds that will outperform going forward? I am not aware of any evidence that this can be done by any method at all on a consistent and reliable basis by anyo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Crazy Talk: Buy and Hold is Dead"
Replies: 6
Views: 1483

Re: "Crazy Talk: Buy and Hold is Dead"

Great post. Thanks, Taylor.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 7377

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

boggler wrote Great post. Thanks. So in your view, what role do real assets play in this? In past years I have held small REITS and PM equity positions that were in excess of their representation in TSM. I sold all those "real asset" equities and moved into TSM in the last two years. PM eq...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 05, 2013 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I just don't get this rise in interest rates
Replies: 104
Views: 9511

Re: I just don't get this rise in interest rates

nisi wrote: I'm interested in a different issue: for those of us who do choose to hold bonds for whatever reason what is the suckiest it could possibly get. I believe that bond bubbles don't get blown up by factors of three, and thus don't collapse by factors of three. The following is a direct quot...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I just don't get this rise in interest rates
Replies: 104
Views: 9511

Re: I just don't get this rise in interest rates

nisi wrote: Come on, Garland, how overvalued can a bond possibly get? It is not a stock. It is going to pay out $1,000 when it matures. True. If you bought a 10 year Treasury not long ago when it was yielding 1.6% and you hold it for 10 years you get the $1000 back. That in my book is called 10 year...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 7377

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

Corporate profits are increased a number of factors including by inflation itself. Those who produce goods and services raise their prices to reflect inflation or more accurately to cause it. But there is also population growth (greater market size) and productivity growth (greater output per worker...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I just don't get this rise in interest rates
Replies: 104
Views: 9511

Re: I just don't get this rise in interest rates

It is true that the fed has not raised rates--far from it, they're still buying massive amounts of bonds every month trying to drive rates down. Investors as a whole and particularly professionally managed money do not however wait for something to happen before reacting to it. Both the stock market...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 03, 2013 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More international in target funds generally
Replies: 9
Views: 1006

Re: More international in target funds generally

In general, international equity valuations are now at significantly better levels than US probably due perhaps to slowing growth in EMs and a long recession in Europe. Our economy is viewed as the safest place in the world for equity investors to place money at present. That willingness to invest i...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 03, 2013 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Terms vs Intermediate in Rising Rate Environment??
Replies: 59
Views: 6896

Re: Short Terms vs Intermediate in Rising Rate Environment??

In this bond environment some have moved to a combination of intermediate term, short term, and cash to cover all the bases rather than putting all the eggs into one basket. Cash has zero principal loss but zero return. Short term instruments have less risk of principal loss but lower interest rate ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 01, 2013 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it always "more risk?" Or is it?
Replies: 41
Views: 3650

Re: Why is it always "more risk?" Or is it?

nisi wrote Is this selective perception on my part? What are some examples where the consensus wisdom for the general retail investor and retirement saver has called for lowering risk? I think part of it is selective perception on your part because, based on your posts in this forum, it is clear tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 01, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein
Replies: 73
Views: 14881

Re: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein

nedsaid said I am reminded of the saying that in the long run, we all are dead. Every investor needs to develop convictions and philosophies about the markets and investing that will carry them through the inevitable tough times. We have all developed assumptions about how markets work and what to e...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It’s the income, stupid!
Replies: 139
Views: 20162

Re: It’s the income, stupid!

My circumstances were different from most investors back in 2009 when I chose to take SS early. My decision worked out well for me, but I think it's sound advice to delay taking SS benefits for most people. Bearing in mind that if you die before your delayed benefits start or for a few years after t...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Serious Investing; Part 4: Market Timing
Replies: 4
Views: 883

Re: Serious Investing; Part 4: Market Timing

Good video. Thanks, Taylor.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: emerging markets have investors panicking
Replies: 142
Views: 16224

Re: emerging markets have investors panicking

I totally agree with Larry on this one. Rather than sell, I'm tempted to buy more but I'll stick with my international asset allocation model, 50% EM, 50% DM. I believe that EM increased volatility is not a one way street. I tend to worry about future returns less when prices are very low and valuat...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It’s the income, stupid!
Replies: 139
Views: 20162

Re: It’s the income, stupid!

I wrote I did not delay taking SS benefits because to delay them meant I would have to sell portions of my portfolio to provide for living expenses in the meantime. Garland Whizzer umifund wrote I seriously suggest you reevaluate this choice. In the present environment, for a single person it is an ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 25, 2013 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It’s the income, stupid!
Replies: 139
Views: 20162

Re: It’s the income, stupid!

bobcat2 wrote do you find increasing annuitized income flows by delaying SS benefits and DB pension benefits appealing? Personally, I do not find either option appealing. I have no defined benefit plan, no retirement plan of any type, only a personal investment account and a self-directed IRA. All t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It’s the income, stupid!
Replies: 139
Views: 20162

Re: It’s the income, stupid!

I do not find annuities of any type appealing. Nor do I find the current low levels of income from bond holdings appealing. One pays a very high price these days for a guaranteed income stream. I prefer to have a large asset base of stocks and bonds managed by me with a total return approach. This a...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Basics of Factor Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 2282

Re: The Basics of Factor Investing

Very good and insightful analysis. Thanks for the articles, Rick. Like you, the older I get the better a 3 fund portfolio looks. I can't cure myself of the urge to outperform beta, but I get less and less confident that it is achievable over a long period of time considering the increased costs of i...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: updated look at high div strategy
Replies: 10
Views: 1479

Re: updated look at high div strategy

I agree with Larry that yield seekers have driven much of the value out of high dividend stocks. REITS are another example of getting too popular with yield seekers to the detriment of their underlying fundaments. Whenever any segment of the market gets too popular and too much money flows in that d...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Dent and the Chamber of Poor Returns
Replies: 6
Views: 1526

Re: Harry Dent and the Chamber of Poor Returns

Excellent post, Larry, thanks. Very keen insight into what humans crave--certainty and safety, two things that life, carefully observed, has never offered and never will. Rather than seeing things as they are, imperfect and uncertain, and making hard rational decisions based on reality, people often...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E and How Future Growth Impacts Current Equity Valuations
Replies: 7
Views: 1852

Re: P/E and How Future Growth Impacts Current Equity Valuati

richard wrote That something is the best does not mean it's good enough to use, just that everything else is worse. There's a difference between "good enough to use" and "good enough to count on with reliability." Nothing ever has or ever will work 100% of the time in predicting ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E and How Future Growth Impacts Current Equity Valuations
Replies: 7
Views: 1852

Re: P/E and How Future Growth Impacts Current Equity Valuati

Vanguard's research on what parameters forecast future returns demonstrate that there are no consistently accurate predictors, either macroeconomic or stock specific. The best parameters are PE10 and PE, which have about a 40% reliability. I have used them and will continue to do so in asset allocat...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to abandon a global portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 3115

Re: Time to abandon a global portfolio?

International stocks have underperformed in recent years and by some measures for many years, but as a result their valuations are currently fairly attractive relative to US stocks. While no one knows the future most would argue that the time to trim exposure to any asset class is not when it is und...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 18, 2013 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worthwhile or a waste of time? [Advisor Solicitation]
Replies: 24
Views: 3373

Re: Worthwhile or a waste of time?

Where does ING Financial Partners get the money to pay for a whole group of people to dine at Ruth's Chris Steak House, knowing beforehand that most are coming just for the meal and are unlikely to move any money to ING? In addition to that cost, they must pay a highly trained speaker to make a comp...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 18, 2013 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, why is this taboo? [Use Leverage in a Portfolio]
Replies: 189
Views: 21590

Re: Bogleheads, why is this taboo? [Use Leverage in a Portfo

The use of leverage implies that one knows where the market is going. No one knows where the market it going in either the short or intermediate term. It's quite simple really. Leverage works when you guess right. If you guess wrong, it not only doesn't work, but you can get margin calls which force...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Article: Why Don't Retirees Buy Annuities?
Replies: 66
Views: 11524

Re: Forbes Article: Why Don't Retirees Buy Annuities?

I have no desire to purchase either an annuity or long term care insurance. I enjoy the managing my own assets and the flexibility it provides. These financial products generate considerable money for the companies who provide them and the agents who sell them, else they wouldn't be offered. They ta...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are people who retired in 1980, 1990, and 2000 doing?
Replies: 11
Views: 2422

Re: How are people who retired in 1980, 1990, and 2000 doing

I retired in 1997, age 50, and have always kept a stock dominated portfolio, never more than about 1/3 bonds, sometimes less. I have had no pension, no paycheck except from SS, and have had to live solely off of investments during that 16 years. My annual withdrawals have varied between about 3% and...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 10, 2013 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is taking a bit more risk for more yield a bad thing?
Replies: 13
Views: 1203

Re: Is taking a bit more risk for more yield a bad thing?

Stretching for yield in this bond market doesn't get you much. All yields, whatever the risk profile of bonds, are at or near all time lows. No one is going to get rich on bonds in the next decade or so regardless of what bonds they hold. The same could not have been said 3 decades ago or two decade...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 07, 2013 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies
Replies: 439
Views: 53935

Re: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies

Thanks for the correction, manwithnoname. The stock price does not automatically drop when dividends are paid out, but the book value does because the company's cash holding is decreased. Mutual funds holding a large basket of stocks are a different story. The net asset value of each share of the fu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies
Replies: 439
Views: 53935

Re: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies

If you pick the right companies, as Buffett usually does, the plan he outlines is clearly superior to dividend strategies in my view. The point has been made that often management squanders money on ill-conceived mergers, share buybacks, etc., which is true, but I suspect that Buffett isn't attracte...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 06, 2013 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ready to live to 100? Here's why you should be.
Replies: 21
Views: 2375

Re: Ready to live to 100? Here's why you should be.

Longevity, like the stock market, is not predictable in advance. I think the point of the article is that we shouldn't estimate (guestimate is perhaps a better word) our longevity when we are doing financial planning for retirement, but rather prepare for a future in which we may live much longer an...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Role of TIPS in Your Portfolio?
Replies: 71
Views: 5840

Re: What is the Role of TIPS in Your Portfolio?

I have no TIPS. I don't find a negative real yield enticing. High percentage in equities is my inflation protection, not perfect but not guaranteed to lose purchasing power either.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 05, 2013 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Higher Rates - Point of Indifference
Replies: 35
Views: 6098

Re: Bond Funds - Higher Rates - Point of Indifference

billyt wrote: Garland Whizzer: This seems to be a recurring theme of yours. Of course, you are absolutely right that inflation is the deadly enemy of fixed income investments. However, there are a couple of other points here. Currently inflation is closer to 1% than 2%, and it is anyone's guess what...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Higher Rates - Point of Indifference
Replies: 35
Views: 6098

Re: Bond Funds - Higher Rates - Point of Indifference

If you subtract a conservative estimate of the compound annual rate of inflation over the next 5, 10, or 15 years, say 2% -3%, all of these scenarios result in a real return of about zero over all the time periods. Real returns are what we spend in the future so I don't find these graph at all reass...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen lazy portfolio critique?
Replies: 16
Views: 3315

Re: David Swenson lazy portfolio critique?

Too much in TIPS and too much in REITS for my taste. I sold my TIPS fund a couple of years ago and my US REIT fund last year. TIPS and REITS got so popular in the years up to 2013, driving their prices higher and their fundamental valuations lower. I believe TSM is a more solid holding at present th...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stupid Question - TSM vs. SCV
Replies: 24
Views: 2569

Re: Stupid Question - TSM vs. SCV

I have no problem with tilting a portfolio toward SCV. In fact, I do it myself with a modest tilt. But I don't think many people on this forum or many financial advisors for that matter would suggest completely replacing TSM with SCV. TSM in my opinion is a core holding and should be the lion's shar...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Homes as Investments?
Replies: 101
Views: 8089

Re: Homes as Investments?

Valuethinker wrote: However some places and some centres handily beat inflation: consider New York City in the last 50 years. Roughly speaking, Paul Krugman has divided USA into 'Flatland' and 'Zoneland'. Zoneland is coastal cities where land is scarce due to zoning controls: Boston, LA, SF, NYC (To...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not your father's indexing
Replies: 40
Views: 4953

Re: It's not your father's indexing

The vast majority of my US equity portfolio is now and has been for quite some time in TSM, but I do have modest positions in two index funds that follow strategies other than market weighting, strategies that theoretically should outperform based on factor exposure, fundamentals, etc.. Thus far the...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV
Replies: 63
Views: 7861

Re: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV

Clearly_Irrational wrote Clearly_Irrational » Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:46 pm garlandwhizzer wrote: 3) Why is it that the available alpha of these premiums don't get arbitraged away? If it could be arbitraged away it wouldn't be a risk factor. That's like asking why the equity premium doesn't get arbitrag...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV
Replies: 63
Views: 7861

Re: New Domestic Small Cap Value Option PXSV

Sorry to bring this up again but I'm skeptical by nature. 1) Everyone in the professional investment world knows about these premiums (small, value, momentum, profitability, etc.,). 2) The vast majority of all investment assets are controlled by professionals with the above knowledge. 3) Why is it t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does past performance matter, SPIVA persistence report
Replies: 12
Views: 1119

Re: Does past performance matter, SPIVA persistence report

Eventually even the best active managers fail to beat low cost index funds. The best managers outperform early when their funds are small in size and nimble. Outperformance brings in more and more investor dollars, performance chasing which seems wired into human DNA, and at some point the successfu...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did Bogleheads do when the stock market crashed?
Replies: 129
Views: 84878

Re: What did Bogleheads do when the stock market crashed?

I did not sell any equities at the worst part of it, but in the early stages of the downturn, I believe it was August of 2008, I got very worried about the future and sold sufficient equities from my equity dominated portfolio to cover all living expenses for 2 years. In retrospect, it was a great m...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend vs stock price
Replies: 16
Views: 1548

Re: dividend vs stock price

If companies choose not to pay dividends with excess earnings, they have 2 options. The re-investment option has been mentioned. In a growing business that is a good option to increase future profits. The other option is to repurchase shares which instantly improves PE and PB ratios and therefore sh...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter
Replies: 99
Views: 9462

Re: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter

It might be more illuminating to see these charts and data on bond returns in real inflation-adjusted dollars rather than nominal dollars. In real inflation-adjusted dollars, holders of high quality intermediate term bonds lost money for the 40 years between 1940 and 1980, a period that started with...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 24, 2013 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 not yet at inflation adjusted high
Replies: 12
Views: 2984

Re: SP500 not yet at inflation adjusted high

13 years of zero real returns! That tells us about the past but what does it suggest about the future? We are at or near the end of a long painful bear market in stocks brought on as most of them are by flagrant overvaluation. If history is to be relied upon (which it usually but not always is) that...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter
Replies: 99
Views: 9462

Re: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter

billy t wrote I agree that the starting rates matter. However, I question the conclusions about losses. If you look at actual 5 year rolling returns, you hardly see any losses at all, and the ones that you do see are hardly consequential. True, but the other thing the graph doesn't show since it's i...