Search found 1397 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using dividends vs. selling shares
Replies: 8
Views: 1239

Re: Using dividends vs. selling shares

Khanmots wrote: What keeps you from selling the same shares you bought with the dividends as you need bits and pieces of the money? And if they've gone up in price during the short period you held them, how is this a bad thing? No problem doing it that way, as long as you don't have to sell somethin...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are we clinging to failed strategies
Replies: 17
Views: 2655

Re: are we clinging to failed strategies

Excellent post. Thanks, Larry. The reason why it is essential to have a substantial holding in high quality bonds, the only diversification that really works in a severe market decline.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Vanguard Article [Joe Davis, Our Economic Future]
Replies: 66
Views: 6503

Re: Excellent Vanguard Article

I always enjoy listening to Joe, who gives solid, well-reasoned, and objective analysis and doesn't try to sell you anything. On top of that he has a sense of humor.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using dividends vs. selling shares
Replies: 8
Views: 1239

Re: Using dividends vs. selling shares

You already pay tax once on the dividends you receive. If you don't take it out in cash to spend and instead reinvest dividends, you have to sell other shares to provide yourself needed money and therefore harvest capital gains in which case your current tax bill is increased (unless you can TLH). E...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITS overvalued?
Replies: 20
Views: 4347

Are REITS overvalued?

From a Morningstar Market Inisights forum. REITs are trading at an average of 20x "funds from operations," which is a REIT measure for cash flow. (Net income or earnings for property REITs is useless, because of the depreciation charge. That means a conventional P/E is also useless.) Anywa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Secular Market Time?
Replies: 37
Views: 3406

Re: Should You Secular Market Time?

Thanks for this interesting post, Rick. Your reading of market history and your logic are for me convincing for secular shifts in risk allocation under some circumstances. Currently we are in the 13th year of a secular bear market and much of the overvaluation and excesses of the tech-dot com bubble...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dec. 2012 Bill Gross outlook
Replies: 25
Views: 4500

Dec. 2012 Bill Gross outlook

I know that Bill is a controversial figure, but I often find his commentary thought provoking. I would be interested in Bogleheads Forum comments on Strawberry Fields Forever, his 12/12 economic analysis and investment outlook. Strawberry Fields – Forever? [Gross, Outlook, December 2012]12-04-2012, ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 77
Views: 11626

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

I agree with Leesbro 63 about always, even in retirement, keeping a significant percentage of assets in stocks. Total safety--annuities, bonds in a world where yields are less than inflation, cash which pays nothing--comes at such a high price that I personally don't think it's worth paying for. My ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dangers of a high div strategy
Replies: 114
Views: 11217

Re: Dangers of a high div strategy

I do not believe that dividend based strategies are attractive at present in the US market because they have been overbought and over-paid-for during the turmoil of recent years, which has reduced their level of intrinsic value relative to other value strategies. However, just to bring up a few poin...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dollar cost averaging
Replies: 18
Views: 1200

Re: dollar cost averaging

DCA is a way to reduce risk in investing a lump sum of money when one believes the risk of market decline is equal or more than the risk of appreciation in the near and intermediate term going forward. For the very long term it makes little difference. How does one estimate these risks? There is no ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds: am I getting it?
Replies: 23
Views: 2269

Re: Bond funds: am I getting it?

[quote nedsaid said: If interest rates go up, your bond funds decline in value but your yield will go up. If you reinvest your dividends, over time this should not matter to you. Normally, you will get back to even in less than three years. [/quote] This is misleading. First of all the expected drop...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An issue with "choose your target fund based on allocation"
Replies: 31
Views: 2182

Re: An issue with "choose your target fund based on allocati

Target date funds are for my taste way too conservative. I'm 65, and hve been retired for 15 years. My bond allocation now is age minus 35, 30%. As a long term proposition starting from this point in time when rates on intermediate Treasuries are less than inflation, I conceptually prefer broad owne...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Drooling over international
Replies: 61
Views: 7212

Re: Drooling over international

All data from Morningstar: VWO - P/E 11 VEU - P/E 11.8 VSS - P/E 12 VTI - P/E 14.5 Data from Vanguard who actually runs these funds as of 10/31/12: VWO - P/E 12.9 VEU - P/E 14.7 VSS - P/E 21.1 VXUS - P/E 14.9 VTI - P/E 16.2 As you can see the P/E's from Morningstar are quite different from those pr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suze Orman 100% equities
Replies: 40
Views: 5034

Re: Suze Orman 100% equities

I totally agree with Suze Orman on this point for 20 - 30 year olds. I can't imagine a rational, non-emotional reason for such a young person to hold any bonds as long as they know they won't need to be touching the money for 15+ years.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RE as alternative to safe FI
Replies: 40
Views: 3632

Re: RE as alternative to safe FI

I agree with Bernsteins's overgrazing concept as it refers to REITS. Yield hungry investors stuck in a world without yield have in my opinion overbid the prices of and therefore undermined the value of all dividend paying entities, including high quality bonds, REITS, high dividend stocks, and HYBs....
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 10816

Re: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining F

I tend to agree with the premise of contrarian investing when investor sentiment swings to extremes in either direction, greed or fear. Recently due to the severe and striking underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to the price of gold, I took up a position in VGPMX. I have had experience w...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian Investing Today
Replies: 30
Views: 2713

Re: Contrarian Investing Today

I tend to agree with the premise of contrarian investing when investor sentiment swings to extremes in either direction, greed or fear. Recently due to the severe and striking underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to the price of gold, I took up a position in VGPMX. I have had experience w...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
Replies: 21
Views: 3017

Re: VWO: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

More thoughts on your initial question, Doc, "Should I stay or should I go?" Morningstar suggests that EM high dividend paying stocks reduce risk since real money is paid out to investors, not imaginary money made by creative accounting or slipped into the pockets of management or insiders...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Whole Life
Replies: 17
Views: 2551

Re: Whole Life

Whole life policies are a great deal for those who sell them and a bad deal for those who buy them in my view. When your asset base gets large enough, you need no life insurance at all, unless for tax reasons depending on your circumstances. Until then term life is a cheap way to cover yourself. In ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
Replies: 21
Views: 3017

Re: VWO: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Very interesting article by Morningstar. The funds they list are large-mid cap value funds with higher dividends, lower PEs and PBs, and lower expected long term earnings growth rates than VWO which is dominated by large caps and without that level of value/dividend slant. The point on dividends and...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:32 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: [merged donation threads] Dear Bogleheads - time to pony up
Replies: 277
Views: 19495

Re: Dear Bogleheads - time to pony up

I just donated $25 via Pay Pal, a great deal for me since I get lots of stimulating information and insight from this forum.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Corp Fund (VWEEHX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1240

Re: High Yield Corp Fund (VWEEHX)

I hold HYB and have done so for more than a decade, through two great market crashes which hit HYB hard while Treasuries did great. However in those two great market crashes, I did not sell one cent of my holding in HYB. In fact, when things were extremely grim in 2008-2009, I sold GNMAs and bought ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Second Look at P/E Ratios (Part II)
Replies: 2
Views: 492

Re: A Second Look at P/E Ratios (Part II)

Very interesting. Thanks for posting. Let's hope the market's apparent expectation of increased economic growth going forward is on target.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond versus Equity Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1894

Re: Bond versus Equity Risk

Jerry_lee wrote Of course, we are comparing 100% HY to mixed stock/bond allocations, when some prefer to look at adding HY to already balanced stock/bond allocations, but that is beyond the scope of this thread and the OP. I agree that 100% HY is an absurd asset allocation. All I am saying is that a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3511

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

Abuss368 wrote: I would be a lot more interested in the fund if the purchase fee was removed and the management fee was significantly lowered. Rather than pay the 0.25% purchase fee, the 0.25% redemption fee, and the 0.5% annual expense fee with the fund you can own the very same holdings in the Van...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond versus Equity Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1894

Re: Bond versus Equity Risk

Jerry_lee wrote: (1) 15% S&P 500, 15% US large value, 20% US small value, 50% 5YR T-Notes RET = +10.4% SD = 8.7 (2) 100% Barclays HY Corporate Bond Index RET = +9.6% SD = 8.8 You make a good point but there are problems with this analysis. First of all, the dates chosen, 1983 -2012, the exact d...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: endowments performance and viability of Yale model
Replies: 4
Views: 761

Re: endowments performance and viability of Yale model

Excellent post. More confirmation that Bogleheads with low cost index funds are on the right track.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 23, 2012 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Most Difficult Investment Conditions I've Ever Seen
Replies: 53
Views: 7620

Re: Bogle: Most Difficult Investment Conditions I've Ever Se

A sobering but probably correct analysis of how it looks now going forward to an intelligent, thoughtful, knowledgeable, and experienced observer. There is no sure and safe place to hide out now and make a bundle. I agree with the tone and content of his message, but it's important to recognize that...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are for safety.
Replies: 47
Views: 6229

Re: Bonds are for safety.

How safe are bonds during a long term inflationary environment? Not in nominal dollars, but in real inflation-adjusted dollars, starting from an absurdly low interest rate environment like today. How safe is it to have 60% or even 80% of all your investment assets locked away in something that retur...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consider the Price-to-Peak Earnings ratio
Replies: 25
Views: 3894

Re: Consider the Price-to-Peak Earnings ratio

Very interesting. Look forward to part 2. Thanks for the post.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reason for REIT Outperformance
Replies: 8
Views: 1779

Re: Reason for REIT Outperformance

There are a number of reasons for the outperformance of REITs, especially in recent years. Some have been mentioned in this discussion, but there is another that perhaps hasn't been emphasized. In a low to no yield bond environment like ours today, yield hungry investors have flocked to them and, un...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market Index Fund Wins Award!
Replies: 54
Views: 5688

Re: Total Stock Market Index Fund Wins Award!

I find it hard to believe that anyone argues vociferously against Vanguard's TSM index funds. It is the core holding in my US equity position and its low cost and wide diversification offers excellent exposure to the US market. Whether a SCV value fund will outperform TSM going forward for 1, 5, or ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Outlook Not so Good?
Replies: 10
Views: 1920

Re: Bond Outlook Not so Good?

With 20 or 30 years to go until retirement you can easily afford to take short and intermediate term risk in equities in return for the expected long term outperformance of stocks. I am 65, have been retired for 15 years, and I still have 70% of my portfolio in stocks because I believe strongly that...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Financial Advisory Services
Replies: 9
Views: 1971

Re: Vanguard Financial Advisory Services

What about setting her up with Rick Ferri who seems knowledgeable, experienced, honest, highly competent. He uses low expense, no load index funds and his advisory fees are modest.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Best One Line of Wisdom
Replies: 238
Views: 18174

Re: Your Best One Line of Wisdom

This, too, shall pass.
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3511

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

Yes, 5% of assets in VNQI (lower cost and no transaction fees relative to mutual fund with same holdings), held in IRA because it is tax inefficient. My only REIT position because I believe from a fundamental point of view US REITS are currently overvalued.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Equities: Light at the End of the Tunnel
Replies: 9
Views: 1296

Re: US Equities: Light at the End of the Tunnel

I agree with both the tone and the content of the M* article and my portfolio has been and continues to demonstrate that (70% equities, 30% bonds). I think the likelihood that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 1 - 2 decades is extremely high and that investor risk aversion after 12 years of...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 8012

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Clearly_Irrational wrote: Personally I just don't think ex-US developed is enough different from the US to be worth it. Good point, totally agree. EM offers diversification benefits relative to US equities over and above developed international which often move in lock step to a closer degree with ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 8012

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Like Gus Sauter, my portfolio concentrates on US equities (almost all TSM) and emerging markets. The growth engine of the world in recent years has been emerging markets and that will continue to be the case as far as the eye can see into the future. All developed markets including the US have the s...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Master Limited Partnerships
Replies: 13
Views: 1781

Re: Master Limited Partnerships

MLPs are well and continuously milked cash cows for those who set them up, those who market them, and those who manage them. For that reason, those three groups tout them highly to potential investors. Not so great for investors. They are difficult and often complex from a tax point of view, often i...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Glidepath Illusion (it doesn't work)
Replies: 133
Views: 12505

Re: The Glidepath Illusion (it doesn't work)

I agree with the tone of Arnott's article and even though I'm 65 I still have 70% invested in equities. I do not personally accept the glide path concept at all. But it is not a question of knowledge or intelligence or research but rather one of temperament. If one cannot emotionally tolerate the in...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: Bernstein vs. Swedroe and Ferri
Replies: 96
Views: 12934

Re: Bonds: Bernstein vs. Swedroe and Ferri

This divergence of opinion on a simple question like this demonstrates that all experts don't agree on everything and that there is often a wide divergence of opinion. You can find an expert who strongly justifies almost any position in asset allocation decisions. It is amusing and educational to wa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA. Now 60/40. Thinking of 70/30.
Replies: 25
Views: 2770

Re: AA. Now 60/40. Thinking of 70/30.

You're age 41 and don't need the money in the short term. You have a long time horizon for your investments. In my opinion that agues vehemently against keeping 40% or even 30% of your assets in bonds, which are currently grossly overvalued in my opinion relative to stocks (E/P 10 year Treasury abou...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 22, 2012 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A junk bond's effective risk less than its rating?
Replies: 14
Views: 1192

Re: A junk bond's effective risk less than its rating?

Totally agree with Rick on this one.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Vgd bond funds will do best over the next 5-10 years?
Replies: 20
Views: 2557

Re: Which Vgd bond funds will do best over the next 5-10 yea

The question is the balance you wish to strike between the return of your money (safety, capital preservation) and the return on your money (capital appreciation), a risk/reward tradeoff. Most Bogleheads believe the role of bonds in a portfolio is to to reduce the inherent risk and volatility of sto...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Your (TSM) Equity Bet Pay Off?
Replies: 222
Views: 11831

Re: Will Your (TSM) Equity Bet Pay Off?

Jerry_Lee wrote You need to ask the question? Of course, (almost) everyone knows that (I'm a fee-only advisor). I benefit if more people buy small or value stocks? Stocks too, right? My posts will make the stock market go higher? And, obviously, that I post anonymously eliminates any chance of anyt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: No TIPS/Inflation Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 8551

Re: Bogle: No TIPS/Inflation Bonds

It seems that Mr. Bogle does in fact do modest to minimal tactical changes in his portfolio based on his perceptions of current reality (i.e.market timing). So what? As Emerson said, "Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Bogle is in my opinion merely demonstrating that he...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Rates Went Up?
Replies: 16
Views: 2221

Re: Why Rates Went Up?

Mr.B's actions increase the chances for inflation as a problem in the long term. It also puts a lid on interest rates for 3 years. Both of these make bonds less desirable as investment prospects going forward and increase the relative appeal of risk assets versus safe assets. One would therefore exp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu's Emerging FF Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 2681

Re: Jason Hsu's Emerging FF Factors

I have recently taken a position in EWX, my only non-Vanguard fund and one of the reasons was its strength in FF factors. It does appear according to Morningstar to be a value fund with exposure to smaller mid-caps (<2Bil), small caps, and even some microcaps. Another reason I found it compelling ha...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1224

Re: International Allocation

Let me say, first of all, that you must find a balance between risk and reward that you are comfortable with. Many Bogleheads have what seems to me a low tolerance for risk, perhaps because they have ample assets and are more highly motivated to preserve them than to take risk to increase them. I me...

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