Search found 1359 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 7798

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Like Gus Sauter, my portfolio concentrates on US equities (almost all TSM) and emerging markets. The growth engine of the world in recent years has been emerging markets and that will continue to be the case as far as the eye can see into the future. All developed markets including the US have the s...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Master Limited Partnerships
Replies: 13
Views: 1756

Re: Master Limited Partnerships

MLPs are well and continuously milked cash cows for those who set them up, those who market them, and those who manage them. For that reason, those three groups tout them highly to potential investors. Not so great for investors. They are difficult and often complex from a tax point of view, often i...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Glidepath Illusion (it doesn't work)
Replies: 133
Views: 12281

Re: The Glidepath Illusion (it doesn't work)

I agree with the tone of Arnott's article and even though I'm 65 I still have 70% invested in equities. I do not personally accept the glide path concept at all. But it is not a question of knowledge or intelligence or research but rather one of temperament. If one cannot emotionally tolerate the in...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 25, 2012 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: Bernstein vs. Swedroe and Ferri
Replies: 96
Views: 12766

Re: Bonds: Bernstein vs. Swedroe and Ferri

This divergence of opinion on a simple question like this demonstrates that all experts don't agree on everything and that there is often a wide divergence of opinion. You can find an expert who strongly justifies almost any position in asset allocation decisions. It is amusing and educational to wa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 23, 2012 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA. Now 60/40. Thinking of 70/30.
Replies: 25
Views: 2755

Re: AA. Now 60/40. Thinking of 70/30.

You're age 41 and don't need the money in the short term. You have a long time horizon for your investments. In my opinion that agues vehemently against keeping 40% or even 30% of your assets in bonds, which are currently grossly overvalued in my opinion relative to stocks (E/P 10 year Treasury abou...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 22, 2012 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A junk bond's effective risk less than its rating?
Replies: 14
Views: 1176

Re: A junk bond's effective risk less than its rating?

Totally agree with Rick on this one.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 20, 2012 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Vgd bond funds will do best over the next 5-10 years?
Replies: 20
Views: 2529

Re: Which Vgd bond funds will do best over the next 5-10 yea

The question is the balance you wish to strike between the return of your money (safety, capital preservation) and the return on your money (capital appreciation), a risk/reward tradeoff. Most Bogleheads believe the role of bonds in a portfolio is to to reduce the inherent risk and volatility of sto...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Your (TSM) Equity Bet Pay Off?
Replies: 222
Views: 11561

Re: Will Your (TSM) Equity Bet Pay Off?

Jerry_Lee wrote You need to ask the question? Of course, (almost) everyone knows that (I'm a fee-only advisor). I benefit if more people buy small or value stocks? Stocks too, right? My posts will make the stock market go higher? And, obviously, that I post anonymously eliminates any chance of anyt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: No TIPS/Inflation Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 8528

Re: Bogle: No TIPS/Inflation Bonds

It seems that Mr. Bogle does in fact do modest to minimal tactical changes in his portfolio based on his perceptions of current reality (i.e.market timing). So what? As Emerson said, "Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Bogle is in my opinion merely demonstrating that he...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Rates Went Up?
Replies: 16
Views: 2212

Re: Why Rates Went Up?

Mr.B's actions increase the chances for inflation as a problem in the long term. It also puts a lid on interest rates for 3 years. Both of these make bonds less desirable as investment prospects going forward and increase the relative appeal of risk assets versus safe assets. One would therefore exp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Hsu's Emerging FF Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 2588

Re: Jason Hsu's Emerging FF Factors

I have recently taken a position in EWX, my only non-Vanguard fund and one of the reasons was its strength in FF factors. It does appear according to Morningstar to be a value fund with exposure to smaller mid-caps (<2Bil), small caps, and even some microcaps. Another reason I found it compelling ha...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1204

Re: International Allocation

Let me say, first of all, that you must find a balance between risk and reward that you are comfortable with. Many Bogleheads have what seems to me a low tolerance for risk, perhaps because they have ample assets and are more highly motivated to preserve them than to take risk to increase them. I me...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 09, 2012 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard account advantages?
Replies: 20
Views: 2755

Re: Vanguard account advantages?

It is very hard for me to criticize Vanguard. I think Vanguard is eminently trustable. In contrast to some of its competitors, Vanguard takes its fiduciary duty very seriously; it does not push product; it is not a for-profit house which bleeds off returns into questionable "new" thinly fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes DOWN?
Replies: 27
Views: 2124

Re: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes D

Nisi, I take no offense at all by anything you said and your posts are always excellent and thought provoking. We have somewhat differing points of view on this bond question, but I think it's educational and often constructive to be exposed to the points of view of others who don't totally concur w...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes DOWN?
Replies: 27
Views: 2124

Re: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes D

I don't hate bonds. I'm just not in love with them at current rates. They serve a critical function, capital preservation. In their recent 30 year secular bull market they have also had long periods of outperformance relative to stocks. The critical function of equities by contrast is long term capi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will You Respond to Bogle's Fixed Income Tilts?
Replies: 52
Views: 5214

Re: How Will You Respond to Bogle's Fixed Income Tilts?

I have no US govt. debt of any type, Treasuries, T-bills, MBS, or TIPS. I am mostly in ITIG corporate bonds, with smaller allocations to HY and ITTE. I do not have a sanguine outlook for US govt. debt. My ITTE is in my taxable account and is a bucket fund along with money market funds covering about...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes DOWN?
Replies: 27
Views: 2124

Re: Do I have this right: If bonds yield MORE the NAV goes D

Nisi's nice chart gives some solace to bond investors in a rising interest rate environment. He does however caution in his example that inflation can erode this nice picture. His example postulates that interest rates start at 2% and rise 1% a year for 8 years and he states that IF INFLATION OCCURS...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Next 10 Years
Replies: 47
Views: 5689

Re: The Next 10 Years

The future is impossible for anyone to predict with reliable accuracy as you say, but I think you've done a good job of laying out the most probable scenario and offering sound and actionable advice based on the best knowledge available at this time. Realistic expectations and broad diversification ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Value tilt?
Replies: 90
Views: 7939

Re: Large Value tilt?

I pose some questions for those who slice and dice with a heavy exposure to small value. First of all let us assume that the small and value premiums are real and have worked in past according to the F&F model. Second, let us also assume, as most SV stalwarts argue, that DFS does a better job of...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate Fund
Replies: 66
Views: 9319

Re: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate F

I agree that it is not an apples to apples comparison between VNQ and VNQI, but I'm not sure that makes VNQI invalid. As for FFO for US REITS, which is said to be the best way to measure their earnings, that information is hard for me at least to come by. I believe that by law in order not to pay co...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate Fund
Replies: 66
Views: 9319

Re: Why I Don't Like the International REITS & Real Estate F

I don't know why all the concern about VNQI (which has a lower expense ratio and no purchase or redemption fees in contrast the mutual fund with identical holdings) certainly relative to VNQ. I see no problem with a primarily Pacific focus (in fact I see this as a positive), nor do I have any proble...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More bad news for muni bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 4180

Re: More bad news for muni bonds

etm wrote: In CA there are constitution and statutory protections for pension payments--believe it or not. So far Federal judges have allowed these to stand. The bottom line though is that BK law is complex, as are the facts of various cities and their financial situation. From what I"ve read ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pillar of Wisdom #7 - reversion to the mean
Replies: 33
Views: 3789

Re: Pillar of Wisdom #7 - reversion to the mean

One might say that Warren Buffet's value style investing is a rare example that has employed reversion to the mean to outperform comparable large cap indexes. He tactically buys solid companies at rock bottom prices because they are unloved and waits patiently for them to revert to their mean in pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10265

Re: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio

I completely agree with Magellan on this point about HYB. It is a separate and distinct asset class and I, for one, like the trade off they offer between risk and reward. Many who decry HYBs cite "experts" with platitudes such as "take your risk in stocks, not bonds." No one ment...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 19, 2012 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10265

Bogle includes corporate bonds in his portfolio

Taken from an interview with Bogle 2/12 posted elsewhere. Apparently he also does a small degree of tactical asset allocation himself, responding to current interest rate levels. Garland Whizzer Hougan: Do you think a traditional broad-based bond index has enough weight in corporates? Bogle: I don't...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 14, 2012 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The outlook for bonds: Are the good times about to end?
Replies: 22
Views: 2820

Re: The outlook for bonds: Are the good times about to end?

In my view, if you are SURE that you are not going to need to sell any of your investment assets over the next 20 or 30 years, I would put 100% in equities. Many people on this forum are obsessed with the "risk" of equities, believing that bonds are "safe" with the fervor of reli...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Index Funds are on a Roll--Will it Persist?"
Replies: 28
Views: 3797

Re: "Index Funds are on a Roll--Will it Persist?"

I have been investing actively for 25 years and have tried it all: stock picking, actively managed mutual funds, and index funds. I have learned, often the hard way, in that time several important points. First, index funds have a clear cost advantage over actively managed funds. Second, index funds...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#
Replies: 10
Views: 1626

Re: PE10 versus PE5 versus PE#

To me, it is a bit confusing. Shiller at Yale, the champion of PE 10, claims that historically the PE 10 smoothes out the noise and is a more accurate predictive measure of FUTURE equity returns than is current PE. He bases this on historical back testing, just as the "SCV premium" is base...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs Junk for inflation protection
Replies: 8
Views: 1284

Re: TIPS vs Junk for inflation protection

Occupier wrote: Note there are other problems with high yield in an inflationary environment. 1) Call risk. They can call the bonds and replace them with a lower paying set of bonds. 2) Default risk. The company issuing the high yield bond might go out of business. I believe that Larry, certainly n...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2012 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.
Replies: 6
Views: 2196

Re: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.

Pinelson wrote: What makes you think so? Referring to my assertion that, unlike Japan in 1990, the current US equity market has risk baked into its valuations. PE ratios of Japan in 1989 and 1990 were 60 - 80. Current S&P 500 ratio is 15.5, that is to say a earnings yield of about 6.5%, more th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: mega caps ready to rally?
Replies: 12
Views: 1396

Re: mega caps ready to rally?

I believe that at present mega caps in particular and large caps in general have more attractive valuations in terms of PE ratios and earnings growth rates than do small caps or mid caps. These valuations are due to more than a decade of LC underperformance following the bursting of the tech stock b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.
Replies: 6
Views: 2196

Re: Vanguard's Joe Davis discusses the outlook for bonds.

I think the message is a solid one and one which investors should take into account in the expected returns of their current asset allocation models. It is about time for Vanguard, which often cautions on the risks of equities, of long term bonds, of corporate bonds, of high yield bonds, of emerging...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 7768

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Bonds are the anchor against portfolio volatility and have a valid role to play whether we're about to enter a bond bear market or not. No argument about that. The question each of us must answer for ourselves is the relative weights of bonds and stocks in the asset allocation model we're comfortabl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 7768

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Nisiprius wrote: Rick Ferri slipped in two fairly big assumptions. When he said "If the price of stocks go nowhere for 10 years..." as if that were a worst-case assumption, but of course the price of stocks could go down. It's not as if it hasn't happened before. The second point is that ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?
Replies: 99
Views: 23254

Re: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?

I have a question about the nature of risk in retirement planning that no one seems to emphasize in discussing risk. In my opinion that risk may turn out to be far greater than the risk of a portfolio tilted too far toward equity in the glide path to retirement. That risk is simply that 10 or 20 yea...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard interview Malkiel
Replies: 3
Views: 1445

Re: Vanguard interview Malkiel

Excellent article. I agree 100% with Malkiel both on the issues of investing in EM for its underlying fundamentals and of not joining the lemmings rushing out of stocks and into bonds. I believe that the future will prove him right on both counts.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at high yield bonds
Replies: 121
Views: 9538

Re: Another look at high yield bonds

I respectfully disagree with Larry, on the point that "high yield has not been efficient in a portfolio, the only right way to look at it." This statement touches on what I believe to be an important point. Is there only one right way to look at it? Models like MPT and F&F are intellec...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at high yield bonds
Replies: 121
Views: 9538

Re: Another look at high yield bonds

I think that HY gets an unjustified bad rap sometimes on this forum. I have been in the Vanguard HYB fund for many years and have enjoyed excellent returns. I believe that HY is a unique asset class that has a unique risk/reward relationship and recovers from its serious declines much, much faster t...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 10, 2012 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for the Retired
Replies: 49
Views: 5704

Re: Question for the Retired

Retired in Oct. 1997. Have never had more than 35% bonds. Still going strong even though it has at times been a scary roller coaster ride. Started out with 100% stocks, mostly tech stocks which were on a tear for 2.5 years, more than doubling in value, then the bottom dropped out. Learned a hard les...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Investment Models Do Not Exist
Replies: 19
Views: 2445

Re: Optimal Investment Models Do Not Exist

Thanks for this article, Rick. The longer I invest and the more carefully I observe the market, the less I believe that any "perfect model portfolio" will outperform TSM or other broad market indexes over any set period of time in the future. Broadly based index funds have the undeniable a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 30, 2012 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aggressive Bogleheads Portfolio
Replies: 51
Views: 4878

Re: Aggressive Bogleheads Portfolio

I agree with mptfan about high yield bonds and my opinion is that the strong biases against them in this forum are not entirely rational for all investors. I personally have held VWEHX for years and have never, even in the depths of the 2008 collapse, regretted it. In fact at that dire point, the fu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 26, 2012 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All the news isn't bad
Replies: 15
Views: 2371

Re: All the news isn't bad

Excellent post, Larry. Thanks for adding some perspective to the avalanche of worrisome news.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swim with Jim Radio Show
Replies: 1
Views: 593

Re: Swim with Jim Radio Show

Great interview. We are fortunate on the Boglehead's forum to be able to access Rick's keen insights and well researched point of view on investing and asset allocation.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: death of equities interview on BNN (Canada)
Replies: 10
Views: 1259

Re: death of equities interview on BNN (Canada)

Superb interview showing a striking contrast between the two interviewers and Larry. The interviewers seem to have modest intellectual capacity, limited knowledge, and tend, like most TV market commentators, to be weather vanes spun by sentiment based on the last market news item to hit the airwaves...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 06, 2012 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads tend to hold more bonds?
Replies: 67
Views: 10357

Re: Why do Bogleheads tend to hold more bonds?

by staythecourse » Sat Jun 02, 2012 11:31 am As much as NO ONE wants to admit it the answer is recency bias and as mentioned in Four Pillars is: Myopic Risk Aversion. The second is understandable if one is retired and you don't have human capital to make up losses and are living off your assets. I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You can't avoid crises but you can plan for them
Replies: 25
Views: 2850

Re: You can't avoid crises but you can plan for them

I think Larry's post makes excellent points. In general two things are very destructive in a severe bear markets. First, leverage which magnifies all losses. Most of us who follow this forum seem to successfully avoid leverage in stocks, but leverage of 5 to 1 or even 10 to 1 is a common element in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 31, 2012 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2
Replies: 36
Views: 2723

Re: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2

I tend to agree with Cut-Throat and k-slice and act accordingly with my finances. I have been retired for 15 years, only got SS 3 years ago and have lived solely off of investments other than that. I have never accepted the "glide path concept" and have never during that time had more than...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2012 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond markets defy experts
Replies: 96
Views: 7294

Re: bond markets defy experts

The examples given do in fact show that if you're willing to by very long durations TIPS, 15+ years, your return equals inflation,your returns can in fact beat inflation by a fraction of 1%. But the amount of the return greater than inflation is so small, a little over 0.6% if you buy a 30 year TIPS...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2012 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond markets defy experts
Replies: 96
Views: 7294

Re: bond markets defy experts

by hsv_climber » Thu May 10, 2012 1:17 pm If you are afraid of inflation then buy TIPS / I-bonds. TIPS currently guarantee that your return will be LESS than inflation. The current yield on the Vanguard TIPS fund is -.82%, meaning that you lose almost one percent to whatever inflation turns out to ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2012 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond markets defy experts
Replies: 96
Views: 7294

Re: bond markets defy experts

Tom_T wrote If rates continued to rise one percent a year, however, you would remain ahead, because at that point you'd be earning more than what a rate hike costs you: Year 1: lose 5%, earn 3% Year 2: lose 5%, earn 4% Year 3: lose 5%, earn 5% Year 4: lose 5%, earn 6% Year 5: lose 5%, earn 7% Year ...

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