Search found 1815 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 22, 2014 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you see profit or ponzi?
Replies: 109
Views: 14350

Re: Do you see profit or ponzi?

At an earlier phase of my life I was taken in on a Ponzi scheme in real estate that looked so compelling on paper that it was impossible to resist. I wound up losing all my investment capital plus years later the IRS came after me to pay back taxes plus penalties for falsified real estate tax docume...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 22, 2014 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 11351

Re: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining F

In Bill Bernstein's recent excellent book, Rational Expectations, he takes the position that commodity based funds, PM, Energy, and REITS, can play a role in a diversified portfolio. They tend to outperform according to BB during inflationary times and are in a sense insurance for inflation held as ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 22, 2014 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you see profit or ponzi?
Replies: 109
Views: 14350

Re: Do you see profit or ponzi?

Grabner's reply to this claim hits the nail directly on the head. Claims, especially by charlatans, can have a grain of truth but be totally misleading. The probability that this trading method works reliably and consistently over long periods of time to produce portfolio alpha is close to zero in m...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund
Replies: 86
Views: 11440

Re: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund

I think AQR's long-short factor approach is interesting but... 1) It's very expensive for individual investors. Paying an additional 1.45% annually in costs relative to TSM seems like a very high hurdle in a world where most agree that going forward from here factor excess returns are going to decre...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 19, 2014 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math
Replies: 42
Views: 5382

Re: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math

Thanks for the correction and clarification, #Cruncher.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you see profit or ponzi?
Replies: 109
Views: 14350

Re: Do you see profit or ponzi?

Beware active management that claims to have discovered the "secret sauce." Many of us on this forum started out with that approach and after years or decades of bad experiences have abandoned it in favor of low cost index funds. In general asset allocation decisions carry more weight on investor re...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Equity holdings of 90%+
Replies: 14
Views: 1961

Re: Retirees: Equity holdings of 90%+

I am 67 years old and have been retired for 17 years. When I first retired at age 50, I had a 100% equity portfolio and had kept one like that for my entire investing career, 10 years up until that time. I rode the bull market of the 90s but learned a hard lesson in the tech collapse of 2000 - 2003....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math
Replies: 42
Views: 5382

Re: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math

Correct me if I am wrong, #Cruncher, but in your analysis you take dividends out as cash rather than reinvesting them in buying new shares. In the Great Depression for example stocks dropped by close to 80% from 1929 to 1932 but if you reinvested all your dividends you recovered all these loses by 1...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds at all.
Replies: 176
Views: 15371

Re: No bonds at all.

Berntson wrote:I don't think we need to look very hard at current yields because bonds are perpetually overpriced. The idea is (a) as many economist have noticed, the equity risk premium is larger than it should be and (b) risk aversion (really, prospect theory, which I just described) nicely expla...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reading Bernstein: Is value overvalued?
Replies: 38
Views: 4817

Re: Reading Bernstein: Is value overvalued?

I'd flip it around and say that valuations are what create/define risk premia. Investors will only pay low prices for assets they perceive to be risky. As long as the expected catastrophe doesn't materialize (most days), they get more earnings/dividends/coupons for every dollar they paid for they a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance
Replies: 42
Views: 4981

Re: FT: The myth of small-cap outperformance

JoMoney wrote:It appears that shortly after the dot-com boom of the 2000's that the "Median Market Cap" for the Total Stock Market started shrinking, this was the case for several years and then the "Median Market Cap" started growing again, but what I notice is that the growth in median market-cap...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Look at Current P/E Ratios
Replies: 54
Views: 11126

Re: A Look at Current P/E Ratios

Morningstar, as JoMoney said, reports PEs as projected earnings, estimated for next 12 months. Vanguard reports earnings for the past 12 months. I also suspect but do not know for sure whether they use different earnings measurements. Vanguard uses GAAP (generally accepted accounting practices) whic...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 13, 2014 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2nd part of int'l diversification series on ETF.com
Replies: 18
Views: 1647

Re: 2nd part of int'l diversification series on ETF.com

Excellent article, Larry. Thanks for the post, some great points.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 13, 2014 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2nd part of int'l diversification series on ETF.com
Replies: 18
Views: 1647

Re: 2nd part of int'l diversification series on ETF.com

cowboysFan wrote:As an analogy, suppose when Enron was at its peak, the corporate insiders came to you wanting to dump their shares as quickly and quietly as possible, but admitted they had been cooking the books for a long time. And of course Enron was headquartered in Texas, not in the emerging m...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?
Replies: 24
Views: 2887

Re: Brett Arend's 10 fund "All-Weather" portfolio

The "all weather portfolio" looks great since 1998, the last 16 years. It includes 40% bonds (which since 1998 have been in a historic bull market as interest rates and inflation consistently decreased to current historic low levels) plus 20% REITS (which likewise have been in an unprecedented bull ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 11, 2014 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 30994

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

Steve_14 wrote Though their expectations are very, very different. For small cap value: Bernstein: +4%/year Grantham: -5%/year So expect your small caps to either double or drop by half over the next few years. This is true and the disparity speaks to uncertainty being the case with small caps and s...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 30994

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

I've got to say this is a great discussion. So much food for thought on both sides of the issue that my brain currently feels overstuffed. Not certain now whether, facing this rather grim future, to do a pre-emptive tactical allocation shift or to stay with my widely diversified index portfolio with...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened if you had used CAPE to time the market?
Replies: 20
Views: 2392

Re: What happened if you had used CAPE to time the market?

Clearly_irrational wrote: I'm not sure I totally agree with the changes proposed, but here's a good article about that: http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/shiller/ Very interesting article. Thanks for the post. After pondering Bernstein's forecast of a decade of very low returns...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Costly Self-delusions": Happiness, Market Timing
Replies: 30
Views: 2585

Re: "Costly Self-delusions": Happiness, Market Timing

VictoriaF wrote: 1. Jonathan Clemens rightly states that money does not make us happier, and as evidence, he compares the wealth and the happiness of the Americans in 1972 and 2012. During these 40 years, the wealth has significantly increased while the happiness has hardly moved. However, this may...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 30994

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

Given the fact that a market analyst of Dr. Bernstein's stature and record says that: 1.He believes his forecasts to be be sufficiently reliable to be actionable at greater than 50/50 probability. 2.He gives sound fundamental economic reasons for his projections (demographic shifts, valuations, exce...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 30994

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

garlandwhizzer wrote: Hopefully this pessimism will be like the famous "Death of Equities" front page of popular periodical in 1982 (Time or Newsweek) that marked the exact beginning of the greatest secular bull market in US history, a bull that ran on for 17 years in both stocks and bonds. Hoppy 08...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High P/E = high future returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 2002

Re: High P/E = high future returns?

learning_head wrote:Data in the OP suggests the opposite actually - 2009 had the highest PE, not the lowest... 2nd highest was 2002 - in the depths of that recession... again contrary to what you would expect... ? Thanks for the correction. The exaggerated PEs of 2002 and 2009 were due not to eupho...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 30994

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

Interesting that 2 respected, astute, and influential figures in the investing world, Bernstein and Grantham of GMO, both have a very pessimistic outlook on US stocks and both expect negative real returns for bonds in the next decade. I personally don't believe than anyone can accurately predict the...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more than 70% stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 1995

Re: Why have more than 70% stocks?

The idea that bonds will produce a 5.5. return going forward is absurd. Past bond history is dominated by 30+ bull market in bonds in which both interest rates and inflation declined consistently for more than 3 decades, from historical highs to historical lows which drives up the principal value of...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 08, 2014 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High P/E = high future returns?
Replies: 20
Views: 2002

Re: High P/E = high future returns?

I think PEs have reliable predictive value when they reach very extreme levels either low or high. Extreme PEs directly reflect extreme investor sentiment levels, either pervasive panic or euphoria which is what drives net buying or selling of stocks and therefore PEs. Lowest PEs occur when all hope...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worse case scenario for total bond going forward
Replies: 46
Views: 6420

Re: What is the worse case scenario for total bond going for

The historical risk of bonds is long term low returns, zero or slightly negative for perhaps as long as 4 decades. The risk of stocks is severe volatility with drops of perhaps 50% to 80% within a short period of a few years. Even in the worst US stock collapses historically if you don't panic sell ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 07, 2014 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have WAY too much in U.S. stocks!
Replies: 15
Views: 4968

Re: You have WAY too much in U.S. stocks!

Interesting article with out of the box thinking about asset allocation by a astute student of the market in my opinion. For me the problem is that although Faber's ideas make sense for long term value investors, the investing graveyard is filled with compelling ideas that should have worked out for...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 06, 2014 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: European Central Bank short term interest now -0.10%
Replies: 12
Views: 1661

Re: European Central Bank short term interest now -0.10%

Draghi is late to the party and his delay for years relative to the US Fed has, I believe, been at least partly responsible for the divergent paths between the US and EU economies during this crisis. We're not doing great--no doubt about that--but slow growth is better than none at all (Europe) and ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 5765

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

I confess that although I'm heavily into stocks and have been there for decades, I am, like nedsaid, getting somewhat concerned precisely because this market has kept going up relentlessly 5 years and currently valuations are generous. Perhaps at last investors, both individual and institutional, wh...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 05, 2014 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund. Not Boglehead-ish?
Replies: 28
Views: 2514

Re: Emergency Fund. Not Boglehead-ish?

Bertilac wrote: The point is not that the money needed for the emergency will be available. The point is that USING the money should not result in a "sell low" situation. Cash will never be low. 1+. Totally agree. Those who recommend holding bonds instead of cash for emergencies and expenses should...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 5765

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

Investors holding the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years is a contrarian indicator suggesting that the 5 year bull market still has legs. This demonstrates clearly that the lingering emotional effects of the last 2 terrible bear markets are still fresh in the minds of investors, both individual...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 03, 2014 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis Drags Down Performance
Replies: 52
Views: 3495

Re: Technical Analysis Drags Down Performance

di7848 wrote:The misconception that keeps showing up is that TA is all about "patterns" and that TA is somehow predictive. Sure, there are some people that actually believe that, but those are the unsuccessful users of TA. The successful ones know that TA has to be incorporated into a trading "syst...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis Drags Down Performance
Replies: 52
Views: 3495

Re: Technical Analysis Drags Down Performance

Personally I have known some investors who relied on technical analysis based trading for years. There is one other thing that all of them had in common. Not a single one of them is rich. Perhaps this is sampling error, but perhaps like Bernstein writes technical analysis is devoted to finding discr...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 28, 2014 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Traveling to Prior Crash Predictions
Replies: 2
Views: 961

Re: Time Traveling to Prior Crash Predictions

Thanks matjen, nice post. High PE 10, overdue market correction, international political upheavals, high unemployment, sluggish economic growth, huge government and household debt levels--there seem to be endless reasons to sell stocks in preparation for the inevitable decline or crash to come. The ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 28, 2014 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified is the Larry Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4988

Re: How diversified is the Larry Portfolio

I think that the LP portfolio carries factor investing and asset allocation history to its logical conclusion. No one would expect less of Larry, an astute market analyst and historian. If the future replays the past or even rhymes with it, the LP is likely to give improved risk adjusted long term r...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 27, 2014 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about REITS??
Replies: 54
Views: 4612

Re: Question about REITS??

JoMoney wrote:REIT's are a type of equity. REITs pay out a relatively high portion of their income as dividends, those dividends have special treatment for tax purposes, so that might make them worthy of being treated as a special asset class. Personally, I don't see any reason to focus on business...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 27, 2014 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - International Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 4806

Re: Jack Bogle - International Bonds

I believe that adding international bonds to a high quality US bond portfolio is a solution in search of a problem. Frankly I don't see the need for them. The main purpose of bonds in a portfolio is to preserve capital and to offset the volatility of equities. Quality US bonds do that very effective...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 24, 2014 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2716

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

OkieIndezer wrote:I would counter that in mid-2007 (especially in August 2007), just a month or two before the bull market peak, there were already plenty of fears/mini-panic about the credit crunch that was starting. Countrywide Financial was already on the ropes. Recession fears were already popp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 23, 2014 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you be worried about record profit margins
Replies: 20
Views: 2716

Re: Should you be worried about record profit margins

Excellent article, Larry, thanks. I can remember very few times in the 3 decades that I've been investing when there wasn't something to worry about in financial markets, threatening clouds on the investing horizon. As the saying goes the market climbs a wall of worry. When there is investing euphor...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 23, 2014 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!
Replies: 39
Views: 4695

Re: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!

Congratulations on both counts, Rick, creating the winning research paper and what you did with the proceeds. Big time scores on both.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 23, 2014 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 44
Views: 7866

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

I also believe that Mebane Faber is an astute and creative market analyst and I follow his SYLD and GVAL offerings which don't yet have a long enough track record to fully evaluate the effectiveness of their strategies in the current real world environment. The problem for active management, even as...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 22, 2014 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1775

Re: What do you think of this portfolio?

Well diversified in risk assets but a bit complicated.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 22, 2014 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone rebalancing into emerging markets?
Replies: 19
Views: 2264

Re: anyone rebalancing into emerging markets?

My international equity allocation is and has been for years 50% EM, 50% DM. I overweight EM as opposed to TISM because I believe two things: first EM is a better diversifier to US equity dominated portfolio than is DM and second that EM will in the long run (sometimes it seems too long) outperform ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 21, 2014 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of momentum myths post
Replies: 6
Views: 830

Re: Part 2 of momentum myths post

Thanks, Matjen, for answering my question. I couldn't download Larry's complete article and therefore couldn't read all his detailed answers. As usual, Larry is thorough and insightful. Thanks to both of you.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 21, 2014 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund
Replies: 86
Views: 11440

Re: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund

I also have yet to digest it. It suggests a very complex multi-factoral, multi-asset class model to control risk and improve risk adjusted returns. On the surface it seems to me to be too complex for most of us to execute efficiently and therefore would require skillful active management which of co...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 21, 2014 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of momentum myths post
Replies: 6
Views: 830

Re: Part 2 of momentum myths post

I have a question for Larry. Momentum looks compelling as a strategy as measured by historical performance without trading or execution costs being taken into account. But since momentum employs frequent trading, execution costs, as well as long and short options, all of which come from returns, isn...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 20, 2014 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't it a bad time to be investing??
Replies: 67
Views: 8381

Re: Isn't it a bad time to be investing??

nedsaid wrote: If you read the financial press, it is always a bad time to invest. 1+ I will add that when the financial press and investor sentiment readings are extremely optimistic (1999, 2007 come to mind) there is often severe trouble waiting around the bend. Severe market declines tend to sta...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 19, 2014 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private NNN RIET
Replies: 22
Views: 2099

Re: Private NNN RIET

Two more points. You mention this as a substitute for bonds. It seems to me that anything that produces a 7% yield in the current interest rate environment entails equity-like risk and should be considered as equity rather than bonds in a portfolio. Perhaps you should consider it in equity portion o...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 18, 2014 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private NNN RIET
Replies: 22
Views: 2099

Re: Private NNN RIET

I confess that I don't know anything about this particular REIT and that what I've read in this post sounds enticing on the surface. What I do know is that there is nowhere in the current yield environment where a safe investment yielding 7% is likely to exist. In this yield starved environment it i...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 16, 2014 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond investing: Is a bear still out there?"
Replies: 34
Views: 3556

Re: "Bond investing: Is a bear still out there?"

Bustoff wrote:by Bustoff » Fri May 16, 2014 2:13 pm

Looks like we should be worrying more about stocks.
We would be if we only looked backwards and assumed the future of bonds to be an exact replay of the past as outlined by your chart.

Garland Whizzer