Search found 1592 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations
Replies: 105
Views: 7575

Re: Backtesting some robo-advisers asset allocations

Wow! What an extraordinary piece of work and research, siamond. Thanks for sharing it. I have so many thoughts about the SIP as well as the 3 fund and tilted approaches. It seems to me that each one has a rational basis but that does not guarantee outperformance. I am not sure what conclusion to dra...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4577

Re: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]

Fidelity is a bit late to the low cost index party and they have arrived only after mass exodus from their higher cost options. They have seen the light, but only because their asset has been departing their active management and higher cost strategies in favor of low cost investing with Vanguard. F...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing most effective in micro cap
Replies: 8
Views: 1125

Re: Factor investing most effective in micro cap

grabner wrote: (And despite this expectation, I am willing to take this risk; I hold RZV, Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value, which is mostly micro-caps and deep value.) RZV is, as Grabner says, a pure and full exposure to the small and the value premiums, microchip deep value. In theory it should maxim...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop
Replies: 58
Views: 8596

Re: Greenspan: Look Out When Bonds Pop

I think the take-home message on predictions in general, including this one by Greenspan and any others made by anyone who tries to predict in advance what markets are going to do in the future is simple. Nobody knows nothing. Predictions generate a lot of buzz and concern but most of them turn out ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Replies: 32
Views: 5341

Re: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?

Borrowing to invest works well in a bull market like we've had in the last 9 years. When it doesn't work well, when in fact it can be disastrous, is severe bear markets. In the depths of the financial collapse of 2008-9, no advisor was suggesting to clients to mortgage their houses and invest the pr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Secret of the Index Fund’s Success?
Replies: 25
Views: 3340

Re: A Secret of the Index Fund’s Success?

Great post as usual, Todd. TSM and/or a 3 fund or 4 fund portfolio provide good tradeoffs in terms of risk and reward in markets. Lowest cost, tax efficiency, and simplicity are also their hallmarks. It is easier to manage a 3 fund portfolio than a 10 fund portfolio especially if you have to make pe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing most effective in micro cap
Replies: 8
Views: 1125

Re: Factor investing most effective in micro cap

The cited article is interesting and it makes the point that on backtesting cost-free factors provide robust returns in the micro-cap space but due to huge trading costs and illiquidity they are very difficult for funds with considerable assets to harvest. It suggests that individual investors or ot...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Replies: 32
Views: 5341

Re: Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?

Is this advice as reprehensible as I think it is?
Yes.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett bet's on utilities
Replies: 4
Views: 1337

Re: Warren Buffett bet's on utilities

If Warren is in fact shifting his equity focus toward the utility sector it may indicate that he has concerns about more aggressive high risk/high return equity sectors going forward. Utilities are not sexy, never have been, but they offer a certain amount of conservative risk averse behavior as an ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3732

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

willthrill81 wrote: It's interesting that you just sort of play it by ear to determine when to sell your equities in order to replenish your spending reserve. That's probably about as reasonable an approach to this bucketed method as there currently is though. I've been doing it for 20 years withou...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 3809

Re: Too much of portfolio in Vanguard?

goshenBogle wrote: About 80% of our $4.5 million portfolio is invested in Vanguard funds. My wife feels that we should invest no more, that maybe 80% concentrated in one mutual fund company is too much. I feel that Vanguard is very stable and see no problem increasing the 80% to even 90%. I don't t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3732

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

willthrill81 wrote: I plan on using a similar strategy in retirement myself, though I plan to have closer to a decade of spending in bonds or a SVF. What I am wondering is precisely how do you replenish your cash and bonds after you've spent that money in a market downturn. Do you just wait until s...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International correlations hit 20 year low
Replies: 33
Views: 3195

Re: International correlations hit 20 year low

Schwab advisors make the case that decreasing correlations between US and INTL increase the diversification benefits of including INTL in an equity portfolio. Increased diversification may or may not mean increased returns but does it suggest less risk and lower overall portfolio volatility. Thought...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield
Replies: 13
Views: 1009

Re: S&P 500 Dividend + Buyback Yield

The chart on page 10 demonstrates that currently more than 90% of operating earnings is spent on buybacks and dividends. Bear in mind that typically operating earnings are generally higher than GAAP earnings, inflating earnings a bit. Also keep in mind that during recent years, as others have noted,...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum
Replies: 7
Views: 842

Re: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum

Robert T wrote: I would just note that the large cap focus of the MSCI US Momentum Index vs. FF US Large Cap Momentum (-0.19 vs. -0.03 size load) and less frequent rebalancing (twice per year vs. monthly) likely helps to reduce trading costs and perhaps even increases capacity – both of which are c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 3732

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

I've been retired for 20 years and have consistently kept sufficient cash/short term high quality bonds in my taxable account to cover living expenses for at least a couple of years. This is done to prevent the cardinal sin of selling equity into weakness during market collapses in order to provide ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs buybacks
Replies: 60
Views: 3144

Re: Dividends vs buybacks

nedsaid wrote: One point I want to bring up on the dividends vs buybacks discussion is that US corporate management is fixated on maximizing shareholder value and thus the focus of management is holding up the stock price. It seems to be more about the stock price than the underlying business. Thus...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
Replies: 53
Views: 5135

Re: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?

Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1745

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

It is sufficiently difficult for most of us to hold on with a significant allocation to unhedged equity during a severe market downturn. When we talk about leveraging up 2X or 3X there are very few indeed who can maintain their nerve during a collapse like 2008-9, unless of course they have a large ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015
Replies: 12
Views: 1165

Re: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015

Simplegift wrote: Thus I’m still skeptical that we can have high stock returns in a low-growth world. 1+ Yet another great post, Todd, about the relationship between macroeconomics and markets. Thanks for posting such a thoughtful piece. I agree with your skepticism that in a low global growth worl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash out refinance residence to invest?
Replies: 11
Views: 999

Re: Cash out refinance residence to invest?

WarChest wrote regarding cash out refinance to invest: It depends on so many things. I'm all for not really market timing regular contributions, etc. But with something like this I would say only do it after you've seen a really crummy market run. Total stock is up something like 14.5%/year over pa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2602

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

nedsaid wrote: I just checked the US Treasury 30 year bond and it yields 2.836%. Amazingly low. The US Treasury 10 year yield is now 2.30%. Again, amazingly low. The US Treasury 5 year bond now yields 1.89%. In effect when you buy 30 year Treasuries you're taking 25 years of duration risk for the g...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1957

Re: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015

Great post as usual for you, Todd. Thanks for posting. And some great input as usual from nedsaid. This Forum is a great educational resource in the fields of investing and finance for those who wish to look beneath the surface noise on which most financial media concentrate.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 3004

Re: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?

would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean
Replies: 29
Views: 4286

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean

Good article, thanks for posting Dave. Always enjoy reading Larry's thoughts. Larry suggests that factor premiums have taken a 25% haircut but they are still exploitable. I believe he favors a multi-factor approach to do so. Larry is bright and knowledgeable guy and his "Larry Portfolio" is IMO bril...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2602

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

ralph124cf wrote; I believe that current long term interest rates are irrationally low, and thus I have zero long term bond exposure. Ralph I agree with Ralph. The developed world is awash with two things, savings among the wealthy and aging populations that must prepare for retirement. Many of the...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?
Replies: 14
Views: 2587

Re: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?

Valuethinker wrote: The manager of VG Prime MMF has given an interview (I don't have a link) in which he says: - they are cognizant of the direct European risks-- no Italian or Greek bank paper - they have studied the secondary risks and are very 'tight' (short maturity, exposure only to the best c...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve
Replies: 4
Views: 662

Re: TIPS yield curve

As an aside, short term rates are largely controlled FED policy. The FED has already raised rates and plans to continue doing so unless the inflation/employment picture deteriorates. Long term rates change much less in response to FED policy than to the bond markets assessment of future long term ec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6788

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

triceratop wrote: Of course there is default risk, that is why the yield on this bond is so high. I'm less sure how the fact it is priced in USD implies more default risk. Wouldn't there be objections to investing in this bond if it was priced in Pesos since the investor would be taking on signific...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6788

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

It is easy to understand why Argentina might issue 100 year bonds. In this country inflation is a constant and has been so for a long time. The currency is volatile to say the very least, sometimes almost illiquid. Fiscal policy is imprudent now and has been often in the past. The governmental defic...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 4573

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

Yes, it is true that stocks are risky, but it is also true that for long term investors whose goal is to have portfolio growth they are essential. Many on this Forum prize intermediate Treasuries as the an example of ultra-low risk and suggest a heavy allocation to that asset class because of its sa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active
Replies: 5
Views: 1334

Re: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active

Thanks for posting this article, Random Walker. Read it and enjoyed it. I really miss Larry's input on the Forum and these posts are helpful at keeping us in touch with Larry's insights.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 3117

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

There is a bandwagon of money now seeking factor approaches and I suspect Wealthfront, like other financial companies, is shooting for a slice of that market with this new approach. The profit motive drives the vast majority of corporate decisions. When it comes to factors these are tough times to t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments
Replies: 14
Views: 2273

Re: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments

Congratulations on moving to the Palo Alto/SF Bay area. It used to be a great place to live. I know I used to live there. The good news is that the area is the intellectual/creative engine that drives much of worldwide technology innovation and the resultant tech income stream for the US and much of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 2474

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

nedsaid wrote: Yes, there is a lot of noise in the financial data. And yes, numbers change over time as there seems to be a lot of slipperiness. International Stocks were the "must have" asset class before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and now they are hardly worthy of the dustbin. In a few years,...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 18247

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: On the other hand, Ally Bank is offering a no-penalty CD at 1.35% for $25K minimum, and it was worth the five minutes it took me to open two of them last week (since I already have Ally accounts, and use Ally as my hub bank). I just went to the Ally Bank web site and checked on their...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 18247

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: Finally! So why haven't you been using an "insured liquid bank account" earning 1% in preference to a MM account earning 0.01%? Currently Prime MM fund is yielding 1.01%. My local bank doesn't offer savings accounts that yield that much but even if they did I'd leave my money where i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use of options, leverage, and short sales
Replies: 2
Views: 396

Use of options, leverage, and short sales

The following is an article by Rekenthaler of Morningstar about complex strategies that are used by hedge funds and the mutual funds that follow option, leverage, and short selling strategies. On average these strategies over the past decade have reduced rather than enhanced returns relative to plai...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 18247

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Two things about MM funds. First, they are instantly liquid at all times. CDs are not and have penalties for withdrawal before maturity. Second, the principal value, unlike short term bond funds, does not decline in an environment like ours at present when the FED is raising now and plans to continu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7957

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

nedsaid wrote: Simplegift, the one thing left out of your original post are Health Care costs which have been increasing faster than inflation. Also for seniors, health care costs tend to be a bigger budget item than for younger investors. Nedsaid makes a good point. The problem is that the factors...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 3003

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

Simplegift wrote: • For Stocks: The earnings yield of S&P 500 (reciprocal of current PE 10, or 1/26) = 3.85% • For Bonds: The current yield of 20-year TIPS Bond = 0.77% That's about the same estimates that I'm using for future returns which I hope is a conservative estimate. Attempts at estimating ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 5833

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

carolinaman wrote: This article makes me think of the statement "If you have already won the game why keep playing?" Some people have high equity allocation through their working careers and have achieved a lot of success with their investments. As they reach retirement they tend to forget that it ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 8032

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

cantrip wrote: On Vanguard's "Portfolio and Management" page under VGSIX it predicts a 17.3% Earnings Growth Rate for the coming year. From a factual point of view this statement is incorrect. Vanguard makes no predictions about what the earnings growth rate will be going forward. The Earnings Grow...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM SCV Liquidity
Replies: 4
Views: 677

Re: EM SCV Liquidity

I am a long term buy-and-hold investor usually I don't do limit orders just market orders. If you're going to hold it for 5 years, it makes very little difference to spend time and trouble with a nickel and dime approach to purchases and sales. DGS, one of my holdings, has a total asset base of 1.21...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7957

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Great post, Simplegift. Brings up a very interesting question that has major long term implications for DM economies and investments. I tend to agree that all DM demographics are unfavorable and getting worse, with historically low labor force participation rates, and that these changes are not temp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 11592

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

willthrill81 wrote:
Nobody knows nothin'.
1+

The main function of predictors of the economic future is to make fortune tellers look good--Warren Buffett's take on predictors and predictions.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 5618

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Random Walker wrote: Haven't seen the article. I can only give you my cumulative opinion from the lay person's reading I have done. To me the risk story for value makes complete sense: higher cost of capital, more leveraged, distressed, more variable earnings. When I started my interest in value I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1375

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

I am not saying that Cliff Asness is a con man. I believe he is honest and as I said before highly intelligent and knowledgeable. I further believe that he completely believes in what AQR sells and gives rational and often compelling reasons for his choices based on backtesting data. I merely made t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 890

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

I have my assets with Vanguard but TRP is now and has been for a long, long time an excellent and reputable financial firm which has, I believe, advised investors well over the years, kept active management fees relatively low, and in general provided good returns for investors.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1375

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

Asness presents AQR's point of view effectively as one would expect. He is very smart and very knowledgeable guy. I have been listening to and reading the opinions and analysis of financial experts who are very smart and very knowledgeable for 3 decades. Two things are striking about their insights....