Search found 1512 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 2173

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

Forward earnings estimates are created by analysts who profit from sales of stocks and therefore they always tend to overstate what reality turns out to be. PE ratios can also be manipulated by accounting gimmicks to make them appear to be reasonable when in fact they aren't. The whole question of E...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find
Replies: 6
Views: 1359

Re: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find

staythecourse wrote: It is NOT as important to identify those with skill in retrospect, but be able to find those with skill in ADVANCE on a dollar weighted return net fees, transaction costs, and taxes. I have not found ANYONE who has been able to identify the above in retrospect with any degree f...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 17, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 2173

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

Jo Money wrote; Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund As of December 31, 2006 P/E 27.6x P/B 3.5x Yield 0.4% As of December 31, 2016 P/E 47.7x P/B 3.4x Yield 1.0% Actually I just the Vanguard website and its SCG index has a PE of 121.2 and a PB of 3.3. The SCV index has a PE of 48.6 and a PB of 1.9. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 15, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 20664

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

frankmorris wrote: Hoping either this forum, or the books, will give me guidance on how much choice I have in the matter. You're in an enviable position, Frank, with considerable personal assets and a strong desire to learn the ins and outs of investing success. The forum is a great source as are n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 14, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 20664

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

As for how to handle considerable assets in a personal taxable account, I'll add my 2 cents worth. I have a fair amount of assets in my personal taxable account and this is my strategy, a very simple one and as time goes by simplicity looks more and more beautiful to me. I have only 2 assets in the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 14, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 3345

Re: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]

frankmorris wrote: Thanks for your comments. I've seen comments about expecting lower returns in the near future, but haven't quite understood those predictions - especially in light of common wisdom on this forum that no one can predict the future. How have you come to the conclusion that the futu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 13, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 10645

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

I believe it's a matter of personal preference, home county bias. Clearly US valuations are generous relative to INTL and especially EM. There are, as some have pointed out, reasons why US valuations should be higher. A cap weighted US dominated portfolio has outperformed a cap weighted INTL portfol...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 13, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3682

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

In the really long run, we're all dead. Although it is true that in the long run stocks have a wider dispersion of outcomes that bonds, that doesn't keep me from making rational assumptions about portfolio construction. It is entirely easonable to expect stocks to outperform bonds in the long run. I...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 12, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 3345

Re: Rob Arnott

I tend to agree with Arnott's thesis that US equities are vulnerable to underperformance relative to INTL going forward. There are significant valuation differences in these markets especially with EM but even with DM. On the other hand there is also increased perceived risk in INTL markets. The que...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 5958

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

I'm with grok87 on this one. I believe the MOM premium is very difficult to harvest after costs and most who try will fail. Long/short MOM as grok87 has pointed out tends to suffer massive losses, the kind that takes long years to recover from, in the recoveries following major market collapses. Hug...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Challenges Of Managing Finances As We Age
Replies: 25
Views: 3849

Re: Larry Swedroe on Challenges Of Managing Finances As We Age

Excellent article as one would expect from Larry. Brings up some great points. At some point in a long lifespan it likely is appropriate to have a trusted financial advisor to prevent poor financial judgements. The problem is that as we lose cognition we may not be able to identify exactly when gett...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 32
Views: 4413

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

EBITDA is but one example of a generalized phenomenon. The financial industry derives its profits from sales of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, efts, etc.. Ways to put lipstick on a corporate pig's earnings or its future prospects are therefore sought after and, when found, heavily promoted. This is pa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 6182

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Larry wrote: AQR Capital Management also uses idiosyncratic momentum as part of its overall momentum strategies. (Full disclosure: My firm, Buckingham Strategic Wealth, recommends AQR funds in constructing client portfolios.) As usual for Larry, a very well researched and thoughtful article that ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 02, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Road Less Traveled" by John Bogle
Replies: 31
Views: 4352

Re: "The Road Less Traveled" by John Bogle

Bogle is a great man who spent his time and talent improving the lot of ordinary investors with the neglected simple truth of arithmetic. Neglected because it did not server the financial interest of the financial industry. He singlehandedly wrought a change that in time has drastically changed the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 01, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott tells investors: You're doing it wrong
Replies: 8
Views: 2419

Re: Arnott tells investors: You're doing it wrong

pkcrafter wrote: A lot of hand-wringing by Arnott, while Asness dismisses him with a wave if the hand. Time wil tell in this battle of the factor titans. Personally I believe that MOM is robust and impressive on backtesting but not harvestable for investors net of fees except in the long only LC sp...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2917

Re: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

One quote in particular from the article posted by nisi caught my attention. Mr. Harvey of Duke says that more than half of all research pumped out by academics and analysts is likely "false." Mine enough data and you can find a result that backs up your idea. This does not say that all re...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 5999

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Random Walker wrote: So when thinking in terms of finite specific single time periods, doesn't it make sense to diversify across as many factors as possible? In fact, I think one can make the argument that the shorter the time period, the more important it may be to diversify across potential sourc...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 22, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 5999

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

nedsaid wrote: Buy good stuff and keep it. I like to own things because of their intrinsic value and not so much for they might hedge against unpredictable human nature and behavior. I want to own something because it is valuable and will increase in value over time and not because of what I think ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 39918

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Don't know if Larry will ever read this but just in case, I'd like to express my thanks to him for his insightful posts, for educating us on the latest factor research among other things, for giving us plenty of free and sound advice, and for spending a great deal of time from a busy professional sc...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 5999

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

It's all a matter of personal preference, but as for me I have absolutely no interest in purchasing a complex alternate investment product with an annual fee of 1.2% whose goal is largely diversification, to zig when your equity portfolio zags. I prefer things that do not involve complex and expensi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3695

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

I get tired of people beating up on Bill Gross. He speaks his mind at all times and, like the rest of us, is sometimes wrong. His long term record is however very good indeed. I don't always agree with his comments but I always find his point of view interesting. I believe that he has been going thr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?
Replies: 56
Views: 5120

Re: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?

I believe that rebalancing back to your bond/stock asset allocation model is appropriate if you're feeling nervous about too much equity after a long bull market run. I do not believe equities are in bubble territory currently and don't see any compelling reason to change your long term balance betw...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 178
Views: 24160

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

Talking real inflation adjusted returns now and like everyone else's mine are merely guesses: US equity 3%- 4%, DM equity 4+%, EM equity 5%+, SCV premium after costs in US 0 -1%, 1% - 2+% in INTL for the next decade or so. Guesses going forward for a decade are notoriously unreliable and I wouldn't ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy
Replies: 11
Views: 2080

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy

IMO this is an example of 2 very intelligent and knowledgeable oversized egos sparring over a single throne on the Mount Olympus of factor investing products, a throne that only seats one. There is some meat to this argument--how pervasive is data mining in factor research and its products--but the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2477

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

Good article, thanks for posting. States the question well but doesn't offer the answer. Some Bogleheads believe we're in the "new normal" with lower expected future market returns. Others believe that we're still in a soft patch of the old normal and that the market is due for robust expe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 9308

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

nedsaid wrote: I guess it finally happened, the forum ran off one of our best contributors and we will be much poorer for it. There is a line here and it got crossed, that is when people are accused of being here for ulterior motives. It is okay to hold and express contrary views and to show a heal...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy
Replies: 11
Views: 2080

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy

I think this is an excellent article. Academics get promoted for publishing a large volume of low quality papers rather than a low volume of higher quality papers in the academic literature. A CV with a hundred publications moves up the ladder in academia, often regardless of their quality because e...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 9308

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Once again I'll preface my remarks with the fact that I don't know enough about re-insurace as per Larry's suggestion to form an educated opinion. In general however the theory seems to be that re-insurance risk is for rare events but when it occurs its likely associated with a devastating event. He...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 159
Views: 18011

Re: Social Security for Millennials

Don't want to be a bummer but I feel I must expand the topic not just for SS for millennials but to the bigger picture of retirement worldwide in developed economies. Retirement arithmetic has dramatically changed due to a very difficult combination of factors. 50 years ago a man without any special...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 9308

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Personally I don't know enough about re-insurance to develop an intelligent opinion. Larry makes a convincing case for it. On the other hand, Warren Buffett, who has invested in this area for quite some time, feels that the re-insurance sector's best days are behind it, that the space is now getting...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Preparing For The Next Bear Market"
Replies: 21
Views: 4181

Re: "Preparing For The Next Bear Market"

Fallible wrote: As Carlson says, "...we should prepare for a downturn before it occurs, not after it's already underway." And that preparation actually begins when setting an asset allocation because that's when we need to ask ourselves how much we can afford to lose in a downturn. 1+ I r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2017 outlook
Replies: 4
Views: 997

Re: Vanguard 2017 outlook

vangaurd fan 1367 wrote: "nominal growth" ? Does that include any inflation or is that just 5 percent only, without any consideration for inflation? Nominal includes inflation. To get real inflation adjusted returns, the kind that really matter when it comes to meeting future expenses, yo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.
Replies: 71
Views: 5798

Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

When giving a speech to the House of Commons in 1947, Churchill actually said this: Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government exce...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.
Replies: 71
Views: 5798

Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

triceratop wrote: I'm sure Bogle is speaking about international markets and countries, because the corollary to his recommendation to invest solely in Total U.S. Market for equities is that he doesn't believe political risk can show up in the U.S. I believe that in the interview Bogle does show so...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reviewing the literature on private equity
Replies: 4
Views: 679

Re: reviewing the literature on private equity

Great article, thanks for posting, Larry. Swenson stands out as not only a highly competent manager but also an honest one who from his long experience tells the simple truth: for the overwhelming majority of individual investors simple low cost broadly based index funds are the way to go. Another i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 23
Views: 2269

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

Finally got around to reading all 3 of the articles that siamond posted. I think they make very good points and much appreciate siamond's sharing them with the Forum.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 4715

Re: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?

nedsaid wrote: I am not gloomy about bonds, just realistic. We had a 30 plus year bull market in bonds from 1982 until the mid-2013 "taper tantrum." Bond prices have wobbled around since then but I believe the bond bull market is over. My gosh, even the most optimistic bond bulls don't ex...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 7612

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

I think Larry's article makes an excellent point. I am about 50US/25EM/25DM in equity weighting. I don't know which of the 3 is going to outperform in the future so I hold considerable weight in all. I am not now and never have been a risk averse investor. In the face of an uncertain future I believ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's comments on the economy and markets
Replies: 5
Views: 672

Vanguard's comments on the economy and markets

Joe Davis, Vanguard's Global Chief Economist, has written a piece on the Vanguard website entitled, "We're not going back to the 80s but expect the Fed to raise rates." In it he gives Vanguard's view of the economy and markets, present and future. Vanguard believes that underlying macroeco...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of MLPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2210

Re: Risks of MLPs

I believe that it was Taylor who posted, "More money has been lost stretching for yield than at the point of a gun." Anything that yields 7% in today's low yield, highly priced financial markets has risk whether its recognized up front or not. Concentrating in a such a small segment of the...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard
Replies: 16
Views: 1884

Re: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard

Interesting the conflict between Asness (factors aren't really expensive and even if they were the relationship between being expensive and investor returns in the short-intermediate term are not tight) and Arnott (factors other than value are expensive now and have lower expected returns going forw...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4630

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

A market correction at some point is inevitable. When it will occur and how severe it will be are both unpredictable. If your time horizon is long and your asset allocation is sound, there is IMHO no reason to jump ship on equities or to make dramatic changes to the portfolio other than possibly reb...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?
Replies: 36
Views: 7374

Re: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?

I believe investor sentiment is on the high side and market complacency is also high. After long years of risk aversion and fear of equity volatility, piling into Treasuries on a grand scale, the stock pessimists seem to have at last given up and started piling into riskier stocks. Sentiment has shi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 20
Views: 1598

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

The people who estimate and create forward PE numbers are by and large those in the financial industry who derive their income from equity sales and marketing. They have a vested interest in always seeing the glass as half full at least even when it's barely wet. Historically their estimates of futu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1395

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

grok87 wrote: The stock market is up. Long term interest rates are up. Time to sell some stocks and start building that 30 year tips ladder? Inflation protection for 30 years with a real fully taxable yield of less than 1%? Unless you are both extremely risk averse and very wealthy, the answer to t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2511

Re: Technical Analysis

David Jay wrote: As others have said, the human mind is a pattern-matching machine and we find patterns where there are no patterns. One can think of "technical" analysis as a behavioral finance issue. 1+ Hits the nail on the head IMHO. Some ancient generals used to examine a freshly slau...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 23390

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Homer3 wrote: Actually, your subsequent investment results were barely affected at all... comparing a low PE10 This was a response to my point that investing in 1982 when PE10 was 7 produced dramatically better results than in 2000 when PE10 was 44. Homer3 points out that returns have been decent s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 23390

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

willthrill81 wrote: Further, how do account for valuations being 'high' for the last 25 years, with only a brief exception? That hasn't happened before. Does that mean that we're truly in 'uncharted territory'? I think that an honest answer would have to be 'maybe'. I agree with this statement. As ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Pessimists!"
Replies: 3
Views: 792

Re: "Beware the Pessimists!"

Beware of pessimists is right, good advice. Over the long term, optimism in US markets has been rewarded handsomely for those who did not flee during the inevitable downturns. While nothing about the future is certain, this is about as reliable as it gets in investing. The problem has not been so mu...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 23390

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

willthrill81 wrote as a rebuttal to Larry's point on valuations: Changing your AA on the basis of valuations still sounds very much like market timing to me. You are making a presumption, even if it's an 'educated' one, about future returns and changing your investment strategy on the basis of that...