Search found 1747 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 8779

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

Jack estimates future bond returns at 3%, but the bond portfolio he chooses to produce a 3% expected return has a 50% weighting in long term corporate bonds and 50% in 10 year Treasuries (or TBM) which currently yield a bit less than 2.5%. The average of those two yields is about 3% and bond returns...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1847

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

In_reality wrote: My take is that theoretical backtesting doesn't reflect the real life choices that are made for the methodology of an actual fund. It seems from the wide differences in two MOM funds with similar MOM loadings that it makes all the difference in the world. 1+ This is the whole poin...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1847

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

Mr. Asness's research may well show that MOM can be harvested on an after cost basis and outperform the appropriate comparable index. Research is one thing. Real funds are another. Let's look at the performance of AQR's 2 MOM funds which presumably over a significant time period will reflect this ou...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 331
Views: 57255

Re: Retreat to cash

lack_ey wrote: Diversify as you can, hold on, and don't make rash asset allocation decisions, especially emotional ones or something that could lead to some regrets and second-guessing*. Chances are, whatever you think could be wrong. Whatever you think of the market, the safe assumption is that yo...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 2159

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

triceratop wrote: That post is only nominal returns. One should look at real returns, which is in terms of actual purchasing power, and instead in the 1970s and 1980s. Fortunately with Simba's backtesting sheet we can do exactly that. It isn't pretty. 1+ The real risk in bonds is inflation. We have...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creatures of Coherence: Why We're So Obsessed With Causation
Replies: 3
Views: 349

Re: CREATURES OF COHERENCE: WHY WE'RE SO OBSESSED WITH CAUSATION

Love the article. Thanks for posting, BogleMelon. Human minds desperately want to create theories that make sense out of noise, but in the end, much of it is just noise.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5060

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Thanks for posting, Random Walker. Larry is highly intelligent, very experienced, and very knowledgeable and it is helpful to get his input on an issue where there is so much confusion and ignorance, Bitcoin. Personally, I've never really understood it and still don't fully, but I've suspected from ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you value a business if you considered investing in it
Replies: 30
Views: 2657

Re: How would you value a business if you considered investing in it

It is almost impossible to accurately value a company's true worth on a consistent basis. This is one reason why active management on the whole is a losing proposition. Very smart, very knowledgeable, and very highly paid professional fund managers try to do it and most fail to beat a beta index. Lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund
Replies: 36
Views: 3243

Re: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund

A 20/80 portfolio for a 32 year old says a great deal about how large a role emotion, especially fear of loss, plays in determining his investment strategy. Reading investment books with rational analysis may not work for him. Most peoples choices are more determined by fear, both rational and irrat...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 7230

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

A lot of people on this Forum complain about Vanguard in one way or another. There is a simple way for those dissatisfied with Vanguard to fix this problem. Move your assets to another firm. I wish good luck to those who choose to do this.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama - Embrace passive management already
Replies: 16
Views: 2598

Re: Fama - Embrace passive management already

Great post. Thanks for posting it, matjen. Fama has not only depth of knowledge but also extensive experience. He sees through peddling noise analysis as insight. Refreshing.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10307

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

I did see the 2007-9 collapse coming in time to prepare for it by selling sufficient equity to provide for several years of living expenses. When people can borrow a half million dollars for a mortgage with nothing more than a signature, no documentation of income or employment whatsoever, it doesn'...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1967

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

Great post, as usual, Todd. Nice to be reminded that we are in a period of co-ordinated world-wide economic growth, corporate profit growth throughout the world, and finally very low interest rates. There are reasons for optimism and the current generous valuations in the US reflect that underlying ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5349

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Personally I don't understand Bitcoin well enough to offer an opinion on its ultimate worth. Having said that, the graphs look bubble-like. Herd behavior and fast MOM money can drive prices solely on sentiment in the absence of any fundamentals. What the graphs say is that some people have faith in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 156
Views: 17504

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

CULater wrote: Now that Vanguard is in the game, going forward, if factor funds underperform, investors will be faced with the dilemma of figuring out whether it is cyclical (keep investing more by rebalancing in) or "factors" are broken because of over-grazing. Most, including me, will end up even...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Schwab Experiences?
Replies: 89
Views: 12401

Re: Charles Schwab Experiences?

I think Schwab is first rate. Have had consistently good experiences with them. If you're interested in frequent trading, individual stock picking, extensive access to individual stock research, options, etc., as well as low cost indexes in both factor and cap weight, Schwab is a good one stop sourc...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCOL vs HCOL real estate - which is the better buy?
Replies: 13
Views: 1258

Re: LCOL vs HCOL real estate - which is the better buy?

Frisco Kid wrote: While true that many of us have seen significant home appreciation, now retired and planning to stay where we are all that equity does is pad our net worth unless we sell the property. That in a nutshell is the problem. On paper your house is worth a million or two, but you can't ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 2341

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

2ndRoad805 wrote: Should I bank on grand scale Market Correction? For the answer, flip a coin. It will be at least as likely to be accurate as expert advice. Personally I don't believe in large wholesale changes to asset allocation based on one's predictions of the market's future. Harvard grads wh...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 156
Views: 17504

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

Factor investing approaches have strong appeal which is why so much money is flowing that way at present. Vanguard's new offerings both legitimize these approaches and will provide low cost alternatives to the more costly funds/etfs that pursue these strategies. Personally, I have two beliefs on thi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"
Replies: 63
Views: 8248

Re: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"

I actually enjoyed reading the Vanguard piece. No one predicts the future accurately but they aren't actually making predictions, instead talking about probabilities. I think they are correct in their main points. US returns going forward are likely to be significantly lower than historical. INTL eq...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes real estate a unique sector?
Replies: 25
Views: 1787

Re: What makes real estate a unique sector?

birdog wrote:
I guess, like many comparisons, it depends on what time frame you look at.
1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Is Your Stockpicker Lucky or Good?
Replies: 8
Views: 849

Re: WSJ - Is Your Stockpicker Lucky or Good?

I think this raises an important point, the difficulty in separating luck from skill in terms of explaining past fund performance. Another hurdle is that past fund success often leads to future failure, not just from luck turning but also from performance chasing dollars accruing in huge volume to s...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonfire of the Opinions of Experts
Replies: 3
Views: 869

Re: Bonfire of the Opinions of Experts

John Mauldin has a spotty record with his own market forecasts. CXO Advisory Group produces a "Guru Grades" measure based on the percentage of each guru's predictions turn out to be accurate. Of the 211 predictions by Mr. Mauldin, he was correct only 39.9% of the time. Interestingly most of the 64 m...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 91
Views: 14295

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

I'll read it when it becomes available. Congratulations and thanks to Taylor for authoring the book and for support of the Forum from which all of us learn. Like our mentor, Mr. Bogle, Taylor's goal is not primarily to line his own pocket but rather to share his knowledge with other investors who wi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 104
Views: 17062

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

NPT wrote: On a more philosophical note, the theory of safe assets seems to violate the law of no free lunches... 1+ There is risk in any asset, some much greater than others. One major risk of a 100% TIPS LMP is that you cannot accurately estimate what your necessary living costs are going to be i...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 5639

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Robert T wrote: Another point not really touched on in this thread is taxes. According to M*, since inception of QSPIX: Pre-tax return = 8.21% After-tax return = 5.71% Tax cost = 2.50% So adding expense ratio (1.50%) + tax cost (2.50%) = 4.00% 1+ Very cogent point. Investment returns, regardless of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 9
Views: 1664

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Factor analysis doesn't paint the whole picture for equity returns. It is instructive to do a factor analysis of VPMAX, Vanguard's Primecap Fund since its inception more than 16 years ago. During that timespan a 4 factor analysis by Portfolio Visualizer reveals its monthly Market factor at 0.00, its...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 9
Views: 1664

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Factor analysis doesn't paint the whole picture for equity returns. It is instructive to do a factor analysis of VPMAX, Vanguard's Primecap Fund since its inception more than 16 years ago. During that timespan a 4 factor analysis by Portfolio Visualizer reveals its monthly Market factor at 0.00, its...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6501

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

nedsaid wrote: I don't know. From my experience and having known a lot of "old" people and becoming one myself, it just doesn't seem practical that people are going to maintain 100% and 90% stock allocations throughout retirement. It seems that most people I know get more risk averse as they get ol...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intrinsic Value
Replies: 6
Views: 790

Re: Intrinsic Value

EMT is a theory, not a law. There are exceptions to the rule from time to time. The market does a better job of setting asset prices in general than the individual. I believe however that there are some individuals who can identify specific stocks or classes of stocks that are mis-priced and/or mis-...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 10344

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

I've been retired for 20 years and my investment portfolio is larger now than when I first retired. I feel pretty confident now, a lot more confident than I felt during the tech collapse of 2000-2003 or the financial collapse of 2007-2009. I managed to avoid panic selling on both occasions which was...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 31
Views: 2929

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

It seems to me that the bottom line for investors is that at present you aren't getting paid much to take on duration risk in the bond market. The spreads between short term and long term bonds have been narrowing, just like the spreads between highest and lowest quality bonds. Add to this the expec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 5639

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

matjen wrote: What is interesting to me is that we haven't even entered an environment where these types of funds should really shine. When we do, if they perform as expected AQR will explode. If they falter and prove no/little better than beta then major trouble. 1+ I don't think there's any doubt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 5769

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

I think my first and most persistent teacher has been the school of hard knocks. Making investment mistakes and behavioral errors actually turns out to be an effective teacher. Losing money is a potent stimulus for long term memory retention. Missing the opportunity when the gift horse is knocking o...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2287

Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

An interesting article from from GS explaining the reasons why value has underperformed for a long spell: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-08/goldman-sachs-mulls-death-of-value-investing-after-losing-decade . GS believes a conjunction of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy are r...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value, and Slice and Dice - How Much?
Replies: 6
Views: 890

Re: Value, and Slice and Dice - How Much?

Better "expected returns" with factors. The important word here IMO is not "returns' but "expected." Is it written in stone somewhere that factor out-return expectations are certain to met in the future over a given time frame such that they more than cover the increased costs of accessing the facto...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6834

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Should you own only non-U.S. stocks? NO!

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 2077

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Phineas J Whoopee wrote: We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind. We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for g...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Past Performance Deceives
Replies: 2
Views: 612

Re: Larry Swedroe: Past Performance Deceives

Excellent article. Thanks for posting, Dave, and keeping us up to date with Larry. Performance chasing doesn't work and yet it is persistent and common. Investing behavior often seems to be determined by skating after where the puck was, particularly in selecting active management. This article unde...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA access
Replies: 30
Views: 3369

Re: DFA access

I find the factor load chart interesting. DFSVX has much stronger exposure to the value factor than VBR. It also has much more exposure to the size factor than VBR. It manages to do this with only very slightly more negative MOM (-.08 versus -.05). Clearly in terms of these 3 factors, DFSVX is a muc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2503

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

nisi wrote: NASDAQ has a "buyback achievers" index, there's at least one ETF that tracks it (PKW) and at least one international buyback achievers ETF (IPKW). I keep waiting for them to get some forum attention, for people to say they own it or are fans of it, but it doesn't seem to have happened y...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2464

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

SimpleGift wrote: • Do you want the highest expected return, and are not that concerned about portfolio volatility? Then tilting toward corporate bonds might make sense — accepting that they are usually more highly correlated with equities during market meltdowns. • Are you willing to sacrifice a b...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 9497

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

When has one "won the game" with a high level of certainty? Life expectancy is clearly increasing on average and for an individual the years of life remaining are uncertain. Many these days live well into their 90s and to be prudent one should probably estimate lifespan to be at the high end of the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8490

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

2% is the minimum real yield I would even consider for purchase of a 30 year TIPS bond. Massive duration risk requires at least that IMO. There is always the chance that you or I won't live for 30 years to wait for maturity in which case duration risk may take a huge bite out of principal value. If ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3664

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

I own 4 bond funds, and STIG is one of them. I own both short and intermediate term high quality bonds. I include investment grade as high quality and of course government bonds. ST are less susceptible to inflation and/or principal loss in an increasing rate environment. IT yield more and in the ab...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-factor investing
Replies: 2
Views: 450

Multi-factor investing

AQR Large Cap Multi-Style offers a well-crafted, scientific approach to stock selection at a reasonable price, but it hasn't proven itself yet This quote is from Morningstar which I believe to be an objective source, describing QCELX. AQR is run by brilliant people, adept students of market history...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 2441

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

Random Walker wrote in response to my post: Also, you mention that at your age you wonder if there will be enough time for the factors to show their benefit. I would contend that the shorter the time horizon, possibly the more valuable factor diversification. Over short periods of time we don’t kno...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 2441

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

What I have been doing recently is acting my age for a change. I am 70, have been retired for 20 years, and as of last year still had a portfolio that was 66% equity and 34% bonds, some beta sand some factor in equity. I am now at a point in life where the uncertainty of risk outweighs the potential...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 129
Views: 32933

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]

rj49 wrote: Wellington has become an unwieldy behemoth that threw in the value towel to invest in Alphabet, Apple, and other growth stocks and seems like a closet index fund (while underperforming its relevant index for the past 5 years). To return to the good old days of 5% Wellesley yields, both ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 129
Views: 32933

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]

The equity side of both funds concentrates on large cap quality stocks but only purchases them when they are perceived to be undervalued. LC VAL/QUAL, precisely the strategy that Buffett uses. In periods when growth outperforms value as in recent years, this strategy underperforms, but typically ove...