Search found 1891 matches

by bigred77
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return
Replies: 31
Views: 3258

Re: How an asset with a NEGATIVE return can INCREASE your portfolio's return

Welcome to the world of modern portfolio theory. You don't have to reinvent the wheel, a lot of academic research has already been published. :mrgreen: In all seriousness, you are back testing an asset that had EXTREME volatility and an extremely positive return over the past 7 years. I don't know a...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer - 6 month Review & Others
Replies: 5
Views: 846

Re: How would you value Time In this scenario?

You only value it if you prefer working 80 hours over 9 work days or 10 work days. Both jobs offer the same effective $/hr. The difference is based on your personal preference. You can try to quantify that preference in some sort of fuzzy way but unless you feel strongly one way or the other, I prob...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA if you were just starting out again
Replies: 49
Views: 3864

Re: AA if you were just starting out again

Today I'm 75/25 with some factor tilts.

If I could go back to when i started I'd implement the same portfolio I have today.
by bigred77
Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dilemma: To buy CPO car or long term rent a car or ship my car?
Replies: 13
Views: 935

Re: Dilemma: To buy CPO car or long term rent a car or ship my car?

I spend the winters in Arizona which this year means 5 months. Also I occasionally visit Arizona for 2 week periods. My choices are: 1) I can ship my 1 1/2 year old entry level luxury vehicle round trip from the east coast for about $2,000. But there will probably be a gap of about a few days on ea...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 233
Views: 26065

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

Am I correct that having personal net assets of $ 1 million (with debts subtracted from assets) still puts both single individuals and couples at more than average as compared to all Americans? Does a typical 60 year old have a higher net assets count (but not quite yet $1 million but closing in on...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 62
Views: 4044

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

I enjoy reading the outside perspective because I work in the industry and obviously I hope it rebounds. My personal opinion on the matter is oil prices (and really all commodity prices) have always been very cyclical. When I entered the industry oil was 120, 130 a barrel and we drilled anywhere and...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Strategies Fall Short
Replies: 15
Views: 1575

Re: Larry Swedroe: Dividend Strategies Fall Short

2 dividend focused articles in 3 days from Larry.

Is this his payback to the board knowing there will be posters who argue that "income investors" are just as right as "total return investors" and there will be another heated discussion :mrgreen:

Touché Larry, touché...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the right career path for me?
Replies: 24
Views: 2583

Re: What is the right career path for me?

I don't want to be limited to 500k a year as a surgeon. I want to build a business that stretches that to millions/billions per year. I don't want to be limited by my own time and energy and just end up paying half of my hard-earned 500k in taxes. I lol'd at having such a limited income and not lik...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International index fund ideas.
Replies: 7
Views: 747

Re: International index fund ideas.

I am a fidelity customer and use FSGDX - Fidelity Global Ex US Index.

I think that would be a fine choice.
by bigred77
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data-driven individual stock approach
Replies: 28
Views: 1608

Re: Data-driven individual stock approach

I've worked on wall st for 40 years, all in an around IT (I have an ms in cs). If it's a hobby, or you want to improve your IT skillset, great idea. But I don't think you're going to make money. Imagine this scenario: Ivy league educated portfolio/hedge managers paired with a team of talented (mit/...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on "entertainment"?
Replies: 50
Views: 3543

Re: How much do you spend on "entertainment"?

Luckily I am done (hopefully :D ) with the $100 plus bar tabs but I did that far longer than I'm proud of. Ubering/taxis and are a another addition. If there was dinner involved you can get up to $200 on a night out pretty easy. That's a lot when your mid 20s on an entry level salary. I was never in...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 233
Views: 26065

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

I can see how one gets the impression that this board is teeming with millionaires and huge income earners. Those groups are certainly over-represented many times over here (and it makes sense that they are; those are the ones with the most excess capital to deploy). It helps to just think of discus...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads
Replies: 233
Views: 26065

Re: Calling out the not so rich bogleheads

This has the effect of scaring away and/or creating resentment in a lot of people who are not close to being millionaires or even just plain wealthy with a healthy emergency cushion, say around 100K-200K saved @ age 35 or 40 . You can't get wrapped up in a number. Think about it like this (assuming...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pocket money allowance for college student
Replies: 48
Views: 2803

Re: Pocket money allowance for college student

I'm about 10 years out of undergrad but my experience back then was:

If I had 20 bucks in my pocket, it was gone by the next Monday.
If I had 200 bucks in my pocket, it was gone by the next Monday.

I don't think I was alone among the 18-22 year old population. :D
by bigred77
Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worth buying an excessive priced house?
Replies: 43
Views: 4140

Re: Worth buying an excessive house?

You haven't given specific details but it sounds like you can afford it.

If you can afford it, and want it, then buy it. That's what money is for.
by bigred77
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]
Replies: 183
Views: 19994

Re: Let's talk about your FI # and family income

It was shown in another thread that folks who keep saving to reach $5MM may end up with less to spend and less time to spend it than folks who stopped saving earlier and started spending / traveling. I did start traveling a lot more with less saved, so I think it works. I 100% agree with this but m...
by bigred77
Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]
Replies: 183
Views: 19994

Re: Let's talk about your FI # and family income

Household income is about 185k My goal portfolio to consider myself FI is about $2M in today's dollars. My goal portfolio to retire is about $5M in today's dollars because I want to live pretty high on the hog once I stop working. If I hit 55 and am still working, I'll retire and make due with what...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's talk about your FI # and family income [Financial Independence]
Replies: 183
Views: 19994

Re: Let's talk about your FI # and family income

Household income is about 185k My goal portfolio to consider myself FI is about $2M in today's dollars. My goal portfolio to retire is about $5M in today's dollars because I want to live pretty high on the hog once I stop working. If I hit 55 and am still working, I'll retire and make due with what ...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 6794

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

I don't think it's the beginning of the end but it's a good reminder to bitcoin owners that those suckers are EXTREMELY volatile.
by bigred77
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Page: REITs and International/Emerging Bonds
Replies: 25
Views: 2614

Re: Financial Page: REITs and International/Emerging Bonds

Non-US sovereign debt is a topic that I have had in the back of my mind but I kind of purposefully don't want to think about. I believe pretty strongly in global cap weighting in equities. I understand and believe in most of the arguments for global cap weighting in fixed income. I just don't really...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having mortgage during retirement. Max retirement saving now
Replies: 19
Views: 1800

Re: Having mortgage during retirement. Max retirement saving now

While still working, the decision to accelerate mortgage payoff or throw extra funds into your portfolio is probably best viewed through the lens of "do I expect my portfolio to have a reasonable chance of outperforming the interest rate on the loan over my expected holding period, knowing I am taki...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T plan which offers global Unlimited data LTE (domestic and international) - thoughts?
Replies: 3
Views: 721

Re: AT&T plan which offers global Unlimited data LTE (domestic and international) - thoughts?

Seems like every year AT&T changes their international roaming plans. I'm not aware of the plan you mentioned but it probably doesn't make sense unless your traveling 50%+ of the time and have the need to keep your same US phone number. The plan I used from them this summer was basically pay 10 doll...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4733

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

More than conviction - self-discipline and patience i.e., emotional control, are needed to stay the course as years of underperfance go by. How does one know for certain going in that they have that control, even if they have chosen a wise course? Well IMO education is the best way to position your...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does my commute cost me?
Replies: 15
Views: 1958

Re: How much does my commute cost me?

Have you thought about the 100 minutes of your daily life that could be used for web browsing, paying bills, reading, texting, bogleheading, ..., that you lose by driving? Also the 1.5 miles is so close that you could probably walk most of the time. While I'm a cyclist, walking has its benefits, to...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market
Replies: 41
Views: 4733

Re: Patience is very important to profit from the stock market

I agree with that tracking error is not the proper term for what is being discussed. We are talking about "extended periods of under performance" when comparing our portfolio to a different benchmark that may or may not be appropriate. And yes I think this is really an issue worth discussing because...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live
Replies: 102
Views: 7912

Re: Best Lower Cost USA Cities to Live

I personally am a big fan of non-coastal big cities. Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Denver would all be on my list. You just have to confirm you can afford the cost of the type of housing you want (big single family home in the suburbs or 2 bedroom condo in the city center) befo...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Checkup
Replies: 13
Views: 1905

Re: Financial Checkup

Instead of doing 48k into taxable savings I would drop 48k into a 529 plan once you have the SS# for your child. Just do it for that years dollars earmarked to taxable savings. Take advantage of 2 decades worth of tax free gains and just consider future college expenses basically handled. I would do...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you get to see business financial data by being an accountant?
Replies: 18
Views: 1560

Re: Will you get to see business financial data by being an accountant?

Thank you guys so much for your posts. They are all so very informative. :) I've looked at indeed.com for FP&A job roles and I think they are in-line with what I am looking to become an expert in. What type of education do venture capitalists need? Wouldn't a FP&A background be the most beneficial ...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 313
Views: 19195

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

I used to brown bag my lunch 75%+ of the time. Mostly to TRY and eat healthy. I changed my tune and now just eat at the company cafeteria every day. I eat a grilled chicken salad every day and it costs me about $6-$7 bucks a day depending on the weight. The convenience and the availability (most imp...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1869

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

Over the next 40 years, I expect a portfolio of 75% total stock market and 25% small cap value to outperform a 100% total stock market portfolio. No guarantees of course, but I think it's reasonable for me and other investors to have that expectation. Over the next 40 years I think an actively manag...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income: Percentage Of Portfolio Or Specific $ Amount?
Replies: 19
Views: 2121

Re: Fixed Income: Percentage Of Portfolio Or Specific $ Amount?

I use a portfolio with a percentage of fixed income because I chose my 75%/25% AA for many reasons. I am comfortable with the level of risk, volatility, historical draw downs, etc. that come with that kind of allocation. If I keep a fixed dollar amount in fixed income then I am always increasing the...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When calculating net worth, how do you value your house?
Replies: 167
Views: 9155

Re: When calculating net worth, how do you value your house?

I live in a bigger city and I can pretty much tell you the value of my home plus or minus 5% at any given time. It's not hard to find real estate transactions from my neighborhood. I take that estimate of market value for my house and include it in my net worth. I'm surprised so many posters don't f...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percentage of Assets Outside of Tax-Deferred Retirement?
Replies: 15
Views: 1473

Re: Percentage of Assets Outside of Tax-Deferred Retirement?

I have never seen a reason to seek out a higher tax bill (even for some ill defined "flexibility"). If your going to invest money, I would always put in any tax advantaged space first, and then taxable accounts only after you have maxed your tax advantaged space. If your going to save money for a sp...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?
Replies: 73
Views: 8517

Re: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?

Any boglehead retiree with a reasonable, diversified portfolio who used the 4% rule is now richer than when they retired unless they retired in and around the year 2000. Those retiree's are in fine shape and are now 17 years into retirement, but they probably don't have a portfolio substantially hig...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8325

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

The only flaw is you could prudently spend a lot more money if you wanted to. If you want to travel more, buy a nicer car, hire out some household tasks, or increase your quality of life in any way, but do not do it for fear of not having enough money later in life, I think that is a mistake. You wo...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you a "car guy" or "car gal", how do you fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 3074

Re: Are you a "car guy" or "car gal", how do you fund?

My current strategy is buying German luxury cars CPO at the 3 year mark with roughly 30k miles and keeping that car for 8-10 more years. You can save 40%+ of buying new and it avoids the steepest parts of the depreciation curve. If I was financially independent already, I'd probably just lease. Yes ...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4454

Re: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?

I've noticed that column before. In the spirit of learning can someone please define and explain the difference between YTD and the "real" 12 month return? Preferable in laymens terms. I know YTD is only from the beginning of the year...so not a full 12 months. Again, I'm only trying to learn. I cu...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4454

Re: Do you know your bond portfolio's REAL 12 month total return?

I've noticed that column before. In the spirit of learning can someone please define and explain the difference between YTD and the "real" 12 month return? Preferable in laymens terms. I know YTD is only from the beginning of the year...so not a full 12 months. Again, I'm only trying to learn. I cu...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evaluating new job offer
Replies: 40
Views: 3188

Re: Evaluating new job offer

I don't know why you'd voluntarily take a pay cut to work for a less stable company but I know Tech companies are different than my area of expertise.

Would you at least get equity in the new company and a chance at a big pay day down the road?
by bigred77
Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching 100% to Mid-Cap Value? It consistently beats Total Stock Market with lower risk
Replies: 10
Views: 1937

Re: Switching 100% to Mid-Cap Value? It consistently beats Total Stock Market with lower risk

Many people have dug through past data and found asset classes, sectors, trading strategies, individual stocks, etc. that have outperformed. That's data mining. There isn't any fundamental reason for those trends to continue. It's really easy to hurt your portfolio performance going down this path. ...
by bigred77
Sat Aug 26, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Physician & Real Estate investor seeks advice
Replies: 66
Views: 6078

Re: Physician & Real Estate investor seeks advice

Getting back to the original request for advice, my advice for a Physician & Real Estate investor would be to not be a Physician & Real Estate investor. At the level you're wanting to be involved in both, and the level that you appear to be able to be successful, that just seems obvious to me. I ha...
by bigred77
Sat Aug 26, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: factor based investing
Replies: 43
Views: 2957

Re: factor based investing

Trying to improve your portfolio's efficiency by diversifying across different sources of risk and return.
by bigred77
Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes and safe swr
Replies: 41
Views: 2197

Re: Taxes and safe swr

Bigred77, I think most people think of their taxes in term of their Marginal Tax bracket --how much of another dollar added to their income would they lose. They can see immediately what tax bracket they are in and how much room is left in that tax bracket. But to follow your use of Effective Tax (...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does it make sense to accelerate paying off mortgage now that I am 57 yrs old?
Replies: 24
Views: 2786

Re: Does it make sense to accelerate paying off mortgage now that I am 57 yrs old?

I think payoff mortgage or invest over the course of a couple of years is probably a marginal decision. Even if you borrow at 3.5% and make 10% with 200k over 5 years that's a benefit of less than 35k. I'm not saying that money is insignificant but does it move the needle on when you can retire or c...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes and safe swr
Replies: 41
Views: 2197

Re: Taxes and safe swr

The good thing is your tax bill will be much smaller in retirement. Most married couple would need to have withdrawals, plus pensions, plus SS or other income streams to exceed at least 100k per year before their effective federal tax rate breaks 10%. Are you kidding? If we had that much income our...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes and safe swr
Replies: 41
Views: 2197

Re: Taxes and safe swr

I think most, or at least I do, consider taxes to be a part of the withdrawal rate. Think of that withdrawal as "gross income". The good thing is your tax bill will be much smaller in retirement. Most married couple would need to have withdrawals, plus pensions, plus SS or other income streams to ex...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world
Replies: 43
Views: 5118

Re: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world

I have a question about theory that I've been pondering: Assuming that the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis holds, would all diversified investments have identical Sharpe ratios (before expenses) if an investment has an infinite time horizon and no black swan events occur? (I know the...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world
Replies: 43
Views: 5118

Re: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world

I'm very interested to read this thread. I think it's an excellent question. I would say no, even if markets were perfectly efficient sharp ratios would not be equal, because there are still other real world constraints. Investors don't have free access to leverage at the risk free rate to get an ef...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 14508

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

I was mainly just trying to stress that there was another well respected researcher who implied sub 3% withdrawal rates, regardless of age, are overkill (which for some reason I get irrationally riled up about whenever I see them discussed here). I think that it is reasonably easy to talk about liv...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do when a parent's money runs out?
Replies: 218
Views: 31834

Re: What to do when a parent's money runs out?

My first step would be to find out if the house is truly underwater with the mortgages. If it is I would simply tell your mother to mail the keys to the primary mortgage holder, pack her personal belongings, and you'll look online for the cheapest acceptable apartment wherever it makes sense for he...