Search found 1952 matches

by bigred77
Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Purchasing land as an investment
Replies: 14
Views: 1621

Re: Purchasing land as an investment

What you are describing is a highly speculative, illiquid, non-diversified investment with very high transaction and carrying costs. It is absolutely not worth it for anticipated returns in the 5%-8% range. Unless you have inside information about a new road being built or a developer planning a pro...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I saving enough? Budget & Retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1983

Re: Am I saving enough? Budget & Retirement

Take home pay of $6500
Mortgage Expenses of $1700
Left Over funds of $3500

So your only spending $1300 a month outside of the mortgage?

Take $3500 excess, put $2000 in a taxable brokerage account, throw an extra $500 onto the mortgage payment, and live a little with the remainder.
by bigred77
Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does playing in WNBA make fiscal sense
Replies: 41
Views: 2789

Re: Does playing in WNBA make fiscal sense

As a former D1 athlete (football) and someone who worked in two other major college athletic departments, two very basic reasons: people want to win (and UCONN is utterly dominant in women's basketball) and the HUGE majority of D1 athletes really couldn't care about the future past the possibility ...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Refinancing mortgage to 15-year vs. college savings
Replies: 23
Views: 2430

Re: Refinancing mortgage to 15-year vs. college savings

That decision seems pretty close to me. I would probably think about it like this: Do I want to pay a fee for the right to pay a higher interest rate, have a higher minimum payment, and dedicate the funds I was contributing to the 529 account to repaying a mortgage with a rate of 2.75%? If you're in...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a new home at age 50 in a nicer neighborhood
Replies: 133
Views: 16615

Re: Buying a new home at age 50 in a nicer neighborhood

Is the new home going to be your retirement home? Are you prioritizing features that will allow you to age in place?
by bigred77
Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using 60 day rollover as cash buffer while buying a house
Replies: 24
Views: 3279

Re: Using 60 day rollover as cash buffer while buying a house

My understanding is you have 60 calendar days from the date you removed funds from the Roth IRA to return them. I would leave myself some wiggle room (at least 3-5 days) and call the brokerage company about the deposit back into the IRA. When I did this Fidelity was giving me some explanation about ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best housing option for my mom living by herself?
Replies: 22
Views: 2469

Re: Best housing option for my mom living by herself?

OP, I went through a VERY similar situation with my own mother. She was divorced, a hoarder, unable to maintain the family home of about 20 years, was laid off for 4+ years (I had been sending her money every couple of months but didn't know the extent of the situation), pretty close to $100k in cre...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 08, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: European Vacation Cost
Replies: 13
Views: 1809

Re: European Vacation Cost

May is definitely going to be cheaper than June. Price out the main flight first. Flying into Paris or a German city will likely be cheaper. Check out easyjet.com for intra-European flights. The trains are also a great alternative. Sometimes its better to book round trip for the main flight instead ...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Y ou can say current valuation is the "best" estimate because ALL estimates for the long-term future are complete guesses This is example of the fruitlessness of the conversation. Clearly this is not the case as the evidence shows and I have explained many times. It cannot have no informational val...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How soon to get HELOC after closing on mortgage refi?
Replies: 4
Views: 795

Re: How soon to get HELOC after closing on mortgage refi?

I closed on a refi mortgage last year and applied for a HELOC less than 10 days later (it was admittedly with the same lender but I don't think that should matter). I sent the same documentation I used for my refi (although i don't think they required as much) but with up to date pay stubs. They acc...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Your 10 Most Important Financial Decisions"
Replies: 21
Views: 3666

Re: "Your 10 Most Important Financial Decisions"

That's a great list, Taylor. As I read it, what occurred to me is how many of those very critical decisions are made so early in life. I try to stress to young people that much of their financial and personal success will likely be determined by the choices they make between ages 15 and 25. I also ...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

As to current times and P/E. First I would say that far fewer companies pay dividends today and payout ratios are MUCH lower, that should lead to bit higher EPS growth and justify slightly higher P/E. Slightly. I believe that the investment community has voted, and the results suggest much more tha...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

I think it makes a lot of sense to say that the best prediction of future returns depends on P/E (or CAPE10) and is independent of term, but the reliability of the prediction might be better at intermediate terms. I.e. our best guess for 30-year returns is the same as our best guess for 10-year ret...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does an SPIA have an impact on retirement accumulation targets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1637

Re: Does an SPIA have an impact on retirement accumulation targets?

I also think SPIAs are a very useful (and underutilized) tool for many people. I think 25x expenses (minus pensions and/or SS payments) is still a good target to aim for. I also think aiming for 25x expenses in your residual portfolio (post SPIA purchase; minus annuity, pensions and/or SS payments) ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

But the math is what matters. It simply assumes valuations don't change because we cannot forecast if they will change. Horrible assumption with no basis in reality that destroys the entire model. What assumption would you make about earnings going forward if not the same? Do you think earnings are...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

BigRed yes of course CAPE 10, or any other metric has less value over short periods. So does the DDM or any other metric. But the math is what matters. It simply assumes valuations don't change because we cannot forecast if they will change. So earnings yield is like bond yield. You buy a 10 year b...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

It would have been very useful to clarify that expected returns forecasts (with all the uncertainty coming with it) are about the coming 10 to 15 years, and NOT about the rest of our lives. No, this is incorrect. When financial economists forecast returns they are UNCONDITIONAL returns, meaning reg...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

It would have been very useful to clarify that expected returns forecasts (with all the uncertainty coming with it) are about the coming 10 to 15 years, and NOT about the rest of our lives. No, this is incorrect. When financial economists forecast returns they are UNCONDITIONAL returns, meaning reg...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Expected real returns for equity portions of portfolios are going to be roughly 6% if you have a 50/50 mix of US TSM and Total International. 6% real supports 4% SWR so what's the problem ? I feel dumber with every post ! :idea: It does, but that 6% is strictly for the equity portion of the portfol...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 21701

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

It would have been very useful to clarify that expected returns forecasts (with all the uncertainty coming with it) are about the coming 10 to 15 years, and NOT about the rest of our lives. Whether we're accumulators or retirees, this makes a HUGE difference, as periods of low returns are typically...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switch from Allstate to Amica/USAA?
Replies: 34
Views: 3021

Re: Switch from Allstate to Amica/USAA?

I was with USAA for home and auto coverage for a number of years. I have no complaints, was satisfied with their customer service and rates. I priced my insurance a year ago and switched to Amica strictly because of prices savings (I now have auto, home, and umbrella). I have been very satisfied wit...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is a modest retirement (definition)?
Replies: 66
Views: 7868

Re: What is a modest retirement (definition)?

My mother lives completely within her cash flow of just under $1200/month via SS disability payments. She has a paid off condo and probably 50k in retirement accounts that she does not touch. The money is there for future medical and/or non-reoccurring expenses. She has no debt (or at least she won'...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I flip my neighbor's house to save the neighborhood?
Replies: 72
Views: 8273

Re: Should I flip my neighbor's house to save the neighborhood?

It would make sense to me if I thought I could buy it, rehab it, and sell it an a reasonable time frame and make a reasonable profit given the risk level. Can you buy it for 100k, put 40k more into it, and sell it for 200k within 6 months? If so, that would probably make sense to me. Can you buy it ...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does a real estate oil bust look like
Replies: 18
Views: 2760

Re: What does a real estate oil bust look like

Katy (and the Houston suburbs in general, maybe not counting the Woodlands as I'm less familiar with that area) has always seemed like a slow and steady Real Estate market to me. There were never any huge run ups until maybe 2 years ago when the supply of housing got way too tight and prices really ...
by bigred77
Fri Jul 29, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is retirement a serious option for me?
Replies: 14
Views: 2441

Re: Is retirement a serious option for me?

Total Assets over $1M+. Debt of 0. Potential Inheritance: 500k+ Age 61 If retirement isn't a "serious option" for you than it's not a serious option for anyone. Can you map out concrete numbers on what your expenses will be including insurance costs, a sinking fund for large non-recurring expenses (...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement vs Non-Retirement Asset Allocations
Replies: 17
Views: 1234

Re: Retirement vs Non-Retirement Asset Allocations

When I was entering the workforce from school, I tried to pick a long term savings percentage to dedicate to retirement savings (long term investing). I decided to start at 25% of income and try to raise it over time to 33%. I then made lifestyle decisions (where to live, what car to buy, where to g...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any retirees here who have been life-long renters?
Replies: 140
Views: 12951

Re: Any retirees here who have been life-long renters?

From what I've seen, if you could purchase a $XXX,XXX house in cash, you could also rent something similar using proceeds of a equivalently sized investment portfolio. What you've seen is very different from the way things work around here. In my town (affluent suburb in Upstate NY in school distri...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When does it make sense to have a second vechicle?
Replies: 33
Views: 3154

Re: When does it make sense to have a second vechicle?

It sounds like you drive roughly 22.5k miles per year. You're going to go through cars quicker than others who drive less. Your Malibu sounds like it was a good choice for you. Practical, good gas mileage, and reliable. You don't need a backup car for a 3 year old car. If something breaks, you have ...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First house purchase advice
Replies: 14
Views: 1499

Re: First house purchase advice

If you are set on buying now, I would buy something suitable for kids. Get the space, schools, and location you want now. Upgrading later is a hassle and expensive. SFH vs Townhome is a personal decision for you to make. Buy something you can see yourself living in at least until your kids are teena...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your plan if you lose job tomorrow ??
Replies: 73
Views: 7757

Re: What is your plan if you loose job tomorrow ??

My wife and I could PROBABLY get by on her salary plus unemployment/severance for a while but we would have to cut all luxuries, new savings, and pay only the minimums on our debt servicing. I like to think I would take a few days or a week to decompress before starting the job hunt but with that bi...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with a bit of extra money each month? (UPDATED)
Replies: 41
Views: 3825

Re: What to do with a bit of extra money each month?

Right now you have an extra $400 dollars at the end of every month laying around. Your currently being taxed on this money as well. Put that $400 a month into the 403b (traditional) and invest an extra $4,800 a year for retirement. Take the tax savings ($4,800 * 15% = $720; plus an increased child t...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times article-Shiller on land and homes
Replies: 18
Views: 2933

Re: NY Times article-Shiller on land and homes

I found the article interesting and entertaining. I disagree pretty strongly on his theory that urban, megacity land prices may stall or even decline. 200 sq ft apartments might house one, single, mid 20s worker, but they are not going to be desirable for couples and families. I think real estate wi...
by bigred77
Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pursue my MBA?
Replies: 33
Views: 2677

Re: Should I persue my MBA?

Where do you live (major cities have more options)? Will your employer kick in any tuition reimbursement for it? What are your post MBA career goals? Do you want to simply move into a management role with your current employer (or at least your current department/function)? How much do the local pro...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Sorry, You're Just Going To Have To Save More Money
Replies: 16
Views: 4416

Re: Jason Zweig: Sorry, You're Just Going To Have To Save More Money

Biggest takeaway for me was that investors can't simply park money in an intermediate term bond fund and then turn a blind eye. It's now time for retail investors to read up on CD terms, EE/E and I bonds, and stable value funds. There are now significant differences in fixed income options. Not so ...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Sorry, You're Just Going To Have To Save More Money
Replies: 16
Views: 4416

Re: Jason Zweig: Sorry, You're Just Going To Have To Save More Money

Biggest takeaway for me was that investors can't simply park money in an intermediate term bond fund and then turn a blind eye.

It's now time for retail investors to read up on CD terms, EE/E and I bonds, and stable value funds. There are now significant differences in fixed income options.
by bigred77
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sound bite.
Replies: 14
Views: 1432

Re: Sound bite.

I generally agree with the premise and plan to hold about 60% equities myself at that age.

I disagree with making a blanket statement like that and implying that the statement should be some sort of "rule of thumb" for people that age.
by bigred77
Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much cash to give when invited to a wedding?
Replies: 81
Views: 9019

Re: How much cash to give when invited to a wedding?

I'm in my early 30s in the South. All of our male friends are now getting married (all the girls seem to get married at a much younger age down here). I give $100 dollars per wedding on behalf of my wife and I whether we travel out of the country for the wedding or it's 5 miles from my house. For br...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you tip Uber drivers?
Replies: 49
Views: 8055

Re: Do you tip Uber drivers?

I use Uber quit a bit.

I only tip a few bucks extra if I make a special request (i.e. can they stop on the way and let me run into the convenience store?)
by bigred77
Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of purchasing a home, talk me out of it. can my plan work?
Replies: 47
Views: 4426

Re: thinking of purchasing a home, talk me out of it. can my plan work?

Coming back after reviewing some of your past posts. I can tell you like to hustle, and that's not bad. You seem to have had the house bug ever since you joined us. Initially ( https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=137757 ) you were deep in debt and thinking about taking a loan from ...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 13075

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

The actual answer to that question (for most people, anyway) is: "Because they haven't annuitized their savings". Thus, they have to be overly conservative in their spending to avoid the risk of running out of money before they die. Of course it is also true that payout rates are pretty low right n...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 13075

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

The actual answer to that question (for most people, anyway) is: "Because they haven't annuitized their savings". Thus, they have to be overly conservative in their spending to avoid the risk of running out of money before they die. Of course it is also true that payout rates are pretty low right n...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 06, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings Review and a Few Questions
Replies: 13
Views: 1253

Re: Savings Review and a Few Questions

You don't state the value of your home (only your mortgage balance), but I suspect you are already a millionaire before age 40 (counting home equity). You will have investable assets of over $1 million in your early 40s (if you stay on this track). I would say you're doing better than "fine". If you...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Refinancing Home to buy Stocks. Confusion
Replies: 62
Views: 5326

Re: Refinancing Home to buy Stocks. Confusion

If you are disciplined enough to Invest the total amount of the mortgage payment you no longer need to make in a taxable investment account then I would probably just leave well enough alone. If you are someone (and I probably fall into this category myself) who might invest a portion of that mortga...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we have enough to retire?
Replies: 87
Views: 7775

Re: Do we have enough to retire?

In the OP's situation I would try to keep my head down, keep saving 15k a month, make sure my kids 529s were flush, keep paying down my primary mortgage, etc. until I was about 40. At 40 I would come up for air and re-evaluate how I wanted to live my life. Unless you hate your job, it would be awful...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I think everyone should look into a home equity line of credit
Replies: 26
Views: 2724

Re: I think everyone should look into a home equity line of credit

I pretty much agree with the quoted post. HELOCs are a pretty great tool. They can help you with cash flow issues, short - medium term financing, and act as a source of emergency funds. They're low interest, usually tax deductible, and often have lenient repayment terms (such as interest only paymen...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where were you financially when you were at 30?
Replies: 226
Views: 30651

Re: Where were you financially when you were at 30?

OP is doing quite well for age 30. I would encourage him/her to focus on increasing income and getting to a healthy, consistent savings rate. I think there were a number of threads similar to this one in the past if OP wants to search for them. Don't be discouraged by the wunderkinds who claim to be...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC for emergency and when you would use it
Replies: 38
Views: 3713

Re: HELOC for emergency and when you would use it

I wouldn't care all that much if my HELOC lender was the same as the lender servicing my primary mortgage. I would shop for the best deal. If all else is equal, I would probably go with the same lender if it was more convenient. I would use it if I had an emergency pop up that I couldn't pay with my...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Semi-market Timing - please attack idea
Replies: 13
Views: 972

Re: Semi-market Timing - please attack idea

I suspect in the long run, this will be small potatoes in terms of the final portfolio balance. I suspect the better decision would be to take all new money and allocate it 1/3 to mortgage, 1/3 to US TSM, and 1/3 to International. When the mortgage is paid off, contribute 50/50. Be sure to rebalance...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage options with 10% down in NY
Replies: 5
Views: 646

Re: Mortgage options with 10% down in NY

It's relatively easy to do an 80/10/10 mortgage which requires no PMI. You do an traditional mortgage for 80% of the value. You then get a second, or "piggyback", mortgage for 10% of the value. Then you put down 10% in cash and pay no PMI. The piggyback loan is usually at a higher interest rate. The...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finance or pay cash for dream house
Replies: 9
Views: 1291

Re: Finance or pay cash for dream house

What is your age, total net worth, and how much will the house cost? If the house represents 1/2 of your net worth I would take a mortgage. if the house is 1/10 of your net worth I would pay cash. Construction + land is about $600,000. Total net worth today is $1.4 million. Age is 37. At your age a...