Search found 1595 matches

by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 6601

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

About 2.8% real (dividends reinvested) from 1/1/2000 to now. Thank You! If I understand your point correctly, you're saying that since 1/1/2000, we've experienced 2.8% real returns, so you'd be quite happy to see 4% real returns over these next 10 years. I just don't think that 2.8% figure is all t...
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I enroll in 401(k)
Replies: 7
Views: 536

Re: Should I enroll in 401(k)

I could be way wrong but I've never heard of a company allowing an intern to participate in the 401k program. They have to do a lot of record keeping and paperwork and they know your only going to be with them for a couple of months.You may want to verify that you're even eligible to participate. My...
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Performance
Replies: 5
Views: 340

Re: Short Term Performance

I have to chuckle about this because a lot of studies show that most of the time nothing much happens, but there are those 10, 20, 30 worst days and 10, 20, 30 best days that determine the whole return of the stock market. So short-term matters and short-term is just a day or two as long as you pic...
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 6601

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

Hate to show my ignorance, but I have to ask. I pretty sure when Mr Bogle predicts 4% stock market returns over the next decade he means 4% real, adjusted for inflation. My question is, when he predicts 4% returns, does he mean with dividends reinvested or without dividends reinvested? Wow. Assumin...
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 6601

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

Dance in the streets!!! I would take a guaranteed 4% annual real return year after year and run like a bandit. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/be/be9c764e901c786712ccc82678261d33.png TheTimeLord, I just want to make sure you're aware that your chart is showing "re...
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my line of credit debt?
Replies: 6
Views: 401

Re: Should I pay off my line of credit debt?

If you have debt equal 2-3 months of taxable savings it's probably no big deal either way.

I personally would just pay it off using cash in your portfolio and build it back up over 2-3 months.
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment
Replies: 86
Views: 5748

Re: Real Estate: Direct vs Indirect Investment

I used to be really interested in building a small portfolio of directly held rental properties to compliment my portfolio of financial assets. I have since concluded that it is not the best choice for me. I have no time. I am the opposite of "handy". Most importantly, the fundamentals in ...
by bigred77
Wed May 31, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?
Replies: 71
Views: 6601

Re: Predicted 4% return over next decade. What do you do now?

Dance in the streets!!! I would take a guaranteed 4% annual real return year after year and run like a bandit. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/be/be9c764e901c786712ccc82678261d33.png TheTimeLord, I just want to make sure you're aware that your chart is showing "re...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 15299

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

TomCat96, I designed my portfolios and AA to handle (1) to (4). I will do fine even if all (4) lasted for 5 years. I do not worry. I plan for this and I sleep well at night (SWAN). KlangFool KF, I understand how you structure your personal finances. It's important to you to account for long lasting...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2251

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

You have define what you mean by "fair value"? I haven't read the book, is their a more specific definition for that term in this context? When many asset managers refer to "fair value", especially active managers, they are typically referring to their own analysis on what they d...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MBA in EU...worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1270

Re: MBA in EU...worth it?

I am hoping to get feedback from bogleheads with an idea I may consider exploring in greater detail...getting my MBA, in Europe. I'm turning 25 yo soon and have been out of school for 2 years. The reason I'd like to get an MBA is pretty simple, it's the next challenge on my radar. This is how I usu...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing Personal Financial Plan
Replies: 5
Views: 680

Re: Maximizing Personal Financial Plan

I would keep reading bogleheads and try to get rid of the individual stock. I would definitely pursue the backdoor Roth IRA and try to get that 53k into your 401k (I assume via non-deductible contributions over 18k and backdoor mega roth ira conversions??) I would try to start out from day 1 living...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximize tax-efficient accounts before debt payment?
Replies: 22
Views: 1523

Re: Maximize tax-efficient accounts before debt payment?

After the first bump in income to 360k they are going to be squarely in the 33% tax bracket (state tax implications unknown). If my effective tax rate in retirement is 27% or less (pretty likely, I'd need roughly 500k in income today to hit that) then then the tax break alone would justify the defe...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing Personal Financial Plan
Replies: 5
Views: 680

Re: Maximizing Personal Financial Plan

I would keep reading bogleheads and try to get rid of the individual stock. I would definitely pursue the backdoor Roth IRA and try to get that 53k into your 401k (I assume via non-deductible contributions over 18k and backdoor mega roth ira conversions??) I would try to start out from day 1 living ...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximize tax-efficient accounts before debt payment?
Replies: 22
Views: 1523

Re: Maximize tax-efficient accounts before debt payment?

That tax advantaged space is "use it or lose it" every year. I would take advantage of it even while paying down your student loans. Yeah, but the student loans are "pay them down or pay 6%" every year, and you don't get that money back either. Meanwhile, the tax-deferral only h...
by bigred77
Tue May 30, 2017 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximize tax-efficient accounts before debt payment?
Replies: 22
Views: 1523

Re: Maximize tax-efficient accounts before debt payment?

You will spend the vast majority of your working life in the top tax brackets. That tax advantaged space is "use it or lose it" every year. I would take advantage of it even while paying down your student loans. When you are making between 360k - 550k, maxing out 2 401ks and 2 backdoor Rot...
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 7333

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

Dividends are extremely fundamental to stock value. This isn't true. I know you believe it is true with every bone in your body. It's not. It's completely and unequivocally false. All companies intend to return cash to shareholders. Let me repeat that. ALL COMPANIES INTEND TO RETURN CASH TO SHAREHO...
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: using Roth IRA for downpayment
Replies: 6
Views: 829

Re: using Roth IRA for downpayment

I don't know if your asking this question with getting to a 20% down payment in mind but I would MUCH rather put down less than 20% instead of raiding my Roth funds. You just don't get that space back. It is not the end of the world to do a 80/10/10 financing or even pay PMI for a little while until...
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks
Replies: 33
Views: 1807

Re: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks

Active management can sell companies if they don't like their governance. Passive management has to vote in favor of improved governance and sustainability. I would actually prefer it if passive management was truly passive on these issues and abstained, letting active investors drive the discussio...
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6149

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Most here (or at least I do) believe it does based on academic research.
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Worth it to Refinance?
Replies: 18
Views: 1085

Re: Worth it to Refinance?

I would probably use the funds to pay off the student loan in full first. Then I'd throw the remaining money at the car loan and use my former student loan payment to accelerate payments. I would want to free up cash flow first, then use that to pay down debt, or invest, or whatever. You can get PMI...
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I drink or sell my Pappy 12 year?
Replies: 65
Views: 6743

Re: Should I drink or sell my Pappy 12 year?

As a fellow scotch fan who has never really come to appreciate bourbon my advice would be to sell it and buy as many bottles of Lagavulin as the proceeds will afford.
by bigred77
Thu May 25, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How dividends become irrelevant?
Replies: 146
Views: 7333

Re: How dividends become irrelevant?

Good old Modigliani-Miller covered this circa 1960 (not that it is bad to think it through yourself), and ultimately won Nobel Prizes for their efforts. Since then, the game has been to try to explain why companies pay dividends anyway. The "best" explanations are likely going to be somet...
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash flow observation
Replies: 21
Views: 1591

Re: Cash flow observation

It's an important discussion because the paths to a high networth aren't necessarily the exact same paths to a nice cash flow. As my dad's example clearly points out, his path was never the BH path, yet he ended up in a very strong financial position. Now days, someone who wants a nice cash flow wi...
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lufthansa Premium Economy
Replies: 41
Views: 4583

Re: Lufthansa Premium Economy

I've made numerous long haul, 10 hr+ flights on a pretty diverse set of airlines. I always fly economy. I always fly whatever's cheapest. I had the absolute worst experience with Lufthansa. I'm a big guy, so any long economy flight is rough, but Lufthansa was incomparable with how uncomfortable I wa...
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate tax benefit of owning a home
Replies: 28
Views: 1599

Re: How to calculate tax benefit of owning a home

What tax benefit? If you compare owning a home Vs living in the street, then you are right there is no tax benefit. If you are comparing owning a home Vs renting then yes, there is a tax benefit of owning over renting. AMT offsets any such benefit - what is given is taken away. I don't understand t...
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate tax benefit of owning a home
Replies: 28
Views: 1599

Re: How to calculate tax benefit of owning a home

You are right. Many married households living in non-HCOL areas don't see any tax advantages for owning their home.

Higher income and/or HCOL married households can see some benefits.

It's quite the marketing tool for people who make their living in and around residential real estate however.
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for Dad
Replies: 13
Views: 529

Re: Portfolio Help for Dad

I second Lifestrategy Conservative.

Would be the right choice I think unless pension and SS income drive him into the 25%+ tax bracket. Even then I wold consider trading off some tax inefficiency for the simplicity of leaving it alone in a single fund.
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 78
Views: 7669

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

I agree investors would benefit from thinking about their retirement savings in terms of "how can I securely generate an inflation protected income stream to meet my goals" instead of "how can I maximize my portfolio balance" or "how can I reach my number". I just don't...
by bigred77
Wed May 24, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arrived at milestone - what should be my next step?
Replies: 14
Views: 1493

Re: Arrived at milestone - what should be my next step?

If I were in your shoes, where it appears you have about 10k in free cash flow per month, I would do the following: - If you feel better with 50k sitting into savings and it would only take you 3 months to get there, then do it. - I would then prioritize all of your tax advantaged space first, befor...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?
Replies: 28
Views: 1296

Re: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?

In my mind, it's fair to say that (risk) factor investing is just a way to take on different sources of risk than just market beta.

If your portfolio is exposed to different sources of risk, it has different sources of return. It can make for a more efficient portfolio.
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2615

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Personally, I use a 5% real return for my own projections of equity performance, which is about 30% less than historical averages. I don't even factor in the fact that I expect MCV, my primary asset class, to outperform the S&P 500, which it's probably going to do over the next 20 years. I make...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2615

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Personally, I use a 5% real return for my own projections of equity performance, which is about 30% less than historical averages. I don't even factor in the fact that I expect MCV, my primary asset class, to outperform the S&P 500, which it's probably going to do over the next 20 years. I make...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2615

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Your scoff that it has less than 50% predictive power. I think it has about 30% predictive power, making it one of the strongest predictors out there. Nothing else comes close. So what? If I need to drive in a nail, and all I have is a saw and a wrench, then the wrench is the "best" tool,...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2615

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Your scoff that it has less than 50% predictive power. I think it has about 30% predictive power, making it one of the strongest predictors out there. Nothing else comes close. So what? If I need to drive in a nail, and all I have is a saw and a wrench, then the wrench is the "best" tool,...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3608

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

I am a bit confused here. You said "If your certain you will be in a lower tax bracket in retirement, a traditional 401k or IRA would be preferable to Roth accounts. ". If so, why did you recommend having a mix (maxing out traditional 401k before a ROTH IRA)? Why not recommend traditional...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2615

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

So I'm still not sure any of this weighs in on my original question, which is whether the "future explanatory power" or predictive nature of the CAPE is based on whether one is currently invested, or if one is NOT YET invested. Again, if the market crashes tomorrow and goes down by 50%, a...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2859

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

I think factor investing research (sans commercial connections) is an attempt to better understand and explain investment returns. The problem is nobody is very good at it yet. People are getting better. People are making progress. But valuation (as measured by PE ratios and PE10 ratios) is probably...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"
Replies: 58
Views: 2859

Re: "The Problem With Factor Investing Research"

The problem with academic finance/economics is that they have what Munger calls "physics envy". "One of the problems he described was based on what he called "Physics Envy". This, Charlie Munger says, is "the craving for a false precision. The wanting of formula ...&qu...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3608

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

I am a bit confused here. You said "If your certain you will be in a lower tax bracket in retirement, a traditional 401k or IRA would be preferable to Roth accounts. ". If so, why did you recommend having a mix (maxing out traditional 401k before a ROTH IRA)? Why not recommend traditional...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To me this is the most significant investment lesson ever
Replies: 16
Views: 2938

Re: To me this is the most significant investment lesson ever

After dabbling in RE and stocks for decades, I have come to the conclusion that I do not get nervous when a market tanks, and since businesses have to borrow to survive, businesses will always do better long term than the bonds they borrow with. Otherwise the businesses will fail. The entire world ...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth it spending money to keep your house looking sharp?
Replies: 54
Views: 7007

Re: Is it worth it spending money to keep your house looking sharp?

Our house is in a small gated community where all the houses are 3 stories tall on super tiny lots (basically 3k sq ft homes on 3k sq ft lots). Being in such close quarters with each other, our HOA dues are on the higher side, but we hire out professional landscapers for the whole community (some ho...
by bigred77
Tue May 23, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present value of COLA pension
Replies: 20
Views: 1699

Re: Present value of COLA pension

Valuing that pension is going to be pretty tough to do with any degree of precision. I would agree with others that said 25X the yearly benefit is as good a rule of thumb as any (depending on age). If your 45 years old that might be a little low. If your 65 years old it might be a little high. It's...
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3608

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

What is the optimal proportion of Roth and Traditional contributions to your retirement? I have a traditional 401k and a roth IRA. I have heard that it is good to have a mix of both because each should be withdrawn at a different phase of your retirement (although I don't know how that works). Has ...
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % Roth vs. % traditional
Replies: 91
Views: 3608

Re: % Roth vs. % traditional

What is the optimal proportion of Roth and Traditional contributions to your retirement? I have a traditional 401k and a roth IRA. I have heard that it is good to have a mix of both because each should be withdrawn at a different phase of your retirement (although I don't know how that works). Has ...
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quickest Path to Financial Independence
Replies: 27
Views: 4392

Re: Quickest Path to Financial Independence

You need 25 times your annual expenses in order to start the conversation. So for 50k - 100k in income you need $1.25M - $2.5M to get in the ballpark. Being in the ballpark assumes your "passion projects" as an artist could possibly bring in some additional income. If you are implying that...
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet Another Real Estate vs Stock Market Thread
Replies: 44
Views: 3827

Re: Yet Another Real Estate vs Stock Market Thread

Your analysis seems to ignore appreciation (I'd expect values to go up with inflation) and your example is, at best, a marginal deal a lot of investors wouldn't bother with. But the main thing you're ignoring is the availability of cheap, safe, long-term, fixed-rate leverage. Good RE investors rout...
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help finding private loan for additional education
Replies: 8
Views: 587

Re: Help finding private loan for additional education

Can he get 0% credit card with an 18k limit before he quits his job? I've seen some with 18 -21 months intro periods.

Then when he re-enters the workforce he would obviously have to prioritize paying this down as quickly as possible (or get another 0% offer to do a balance transfer).
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present value of COLA pension
Replies: 20
Views: 1699

Re: Present value of COLA pension

Valuing that pension is going to be pretty tough to do with any degree of precision. I would agree with others that said 25X the yearly benefit is as good a rule of thumb as any (depending on age). If your 45 years old that might be a little low. If your 65 years old it might be a little high. It's ...
by bigred77
Mon May 22, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth is overrated
Replies: 76
Views: 9343

Re: Net worth is overrated

I don't know that I agree. If I could only track one financial metric for my household, I'm pretty sure net worth would be my choice. I'm not saying it's perfect. I'm not saying in isolation it is a good comparative metric to decide one household is "doing better" than another. But I do th...

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