Search found 268 matches

by TinkerPDX
Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I remain on the sidelines until the crash? Or invest now?
Replies: 38
Views: 7784

Re: Should I remain on the sidelines until the crash? Or invest now?

Buy now. Whenever I'm worried about buying near a "peak," I remember this bit about how even if you bought only at peaks before big crashes , you'd do well as long as you never panicked and sold (provided a decade or three to ride it out). Just came across this. Thought it might be a fun read. http:...
by TinkerPDX
Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question for newbie Bogleheads
Replies: 22
Views: 2540

Re: A question for newbie Bogleheads

Initially it was minimize costs, buy the market/diversify broadly. Now that I have a few years under my belt (three with my IPS in place) I'd say the deeper "aha" is that it's more important to stick to the plan / stay the course than it is to have the "perfect" plan. Whenever I'm tempted to deviate...
by TinkerPDX
Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Addicted to investing?
Replies: 17
Views: 2468

Re: Addicted to investing?

However aren't others finding it tough to not do anything ? Sounds to me like you need a way to "do something" without actually doing anything (ie, while actually staying the course). I scratch this itch by manually allocating my twice-monthly contributions according to my IPS, buying into the appr...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplyfying to 1-Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 2130

Re: Simplyfying to 1-Fund Portfolio?

Harm of going to a single fund is that when you want to take money out, you can't decide which part of the portfolio it comes from. So you may have to sell at 40-60 equities-bonds even if equities are way down. Could simplify to two, total world equity (ie VT, ACWI) plus a bond fund, and still have ...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flying Across Atlantic with 98th Percentile 18-Month Child
Replies: 114
Views: 9350

Re: Flying Across Atlantic with 98th Percentile 18-Month Child

We've flown coast-to-coast with our toddler a couple of times. On most of those flights, we've spent as much time chasing him up and down the aisles as we have seated. Never bought an extra seat, and we survived. But those were all <5 hour legs. I'd buy the seat if it didn't feel to painful financia...
by TinkerPDX
Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost: Could really use some advice on our next round of financial goals
Replies: 25
Views: 3103

Re: Lost: Could really use some advice on our next round of financial goals

I'd strongly consider paying down the mortgage sooner. 4.125% is a great certain rate of return.
by TinkerPDX
Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Traditional vs Roth
Replies: 28
Views: 3456

Re: Traditional vs Roth

From the Wiki: Non-tax considerations (Traditional 401(k) vs. Roth IRA): If your employer matches 401(k) contributions, put enough to get the maximum match in the 401(k) before contributing to any IRA. If you have inferior options in the 401(k), prefer an IRA to unmatched 401(k) contributions. Tax c...
by TinkerPDX
Sun Dec 04, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Haste Makes Waste Lump Sum Investing
Replies: 39
Views: 5473

Re: Haste Makes Waste Lump Sum Investing

Page 272 of Bogle on Mutual Funds he states, "move to your desired investment allocation position gradually". I believe this references changes in asset allocations, as opposed to a rollover situation, or acquiring new cash to inject, when you're sticking to the same allocation. If you're rolling o...
by TinkerPDX
Fri Dec 02, 2016 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oregon Muni-bond fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 6110

Re: Oregon Muni-bond fund?

I've done the same searching, though mostly out of curiosity. The conclusion I came to is that if and when I need tax-free bonds in my home state of Oregon, I"ll build the portfolio myself. If you take a look at the muni bonds available in Oregon, you'll find there aren't really that many issuers. T...
by TinkerPDX
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cycle and return to historical average.
Replies: 23
Views: 2691

Re: Market cycle and return to historical average.

Reversion to the mean only applies to random variables for which there is some actual mean. While the movement in stock values on a given day may be near random, the market's returns are far from random; they are a function of many independent variables, and nave no natural, intrinsic mean, just the...
by TinkerPDX
Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce MAGI to capture full child tax credit?
Replies: 21
Views: 3726

Re: Reduce MAGI to capture full child tax credit?

If you don't have a pension or other source of income, you will want to fill the lower tax brackets, 0%, 10% and 15%, with traditional withdrawals. If you retire early, there may be a number of years that you can do this. Hard to beat paying 0% for Traditional contributions and then 0% on some with...
by TinkerPDX
Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce MAGI to capture full child tax credit?
Replies: 21
Views: 3726

Re: Reduce MAGI to capture full child tax credit?

Thanks for the input all. :beer So, with the child tax credit phaseout, you're marginal tax rate is 39%. I would go Traditional. What percent of your retirement account is in Traditional accounts? Do you expect a pension when you retire? Do you expect to retire early (i.e. before taking pension and/...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce MAGI to capture full child tax credit?
Replies: 21
Views: 3726

Reduce MAGI to capture full child tax credit?

I am trying to figure out whether (and how) to get our MAGI down to $110k so that we can capture the full value of the child tax credit and could use some input. We are married filing jointly, with total income this year of $115k plus bonus (probably $1k-$10k). All of our retirement contributions ar...
by TinkerPDX
Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?
Replies: 52
Views: 6652

Re: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?

There are a million right ways to allocate your portfolio, and there are good reasons to go all in now or to DCA back in. The unbreakable rule is that once you make that plan, stick to it. Either way, that means committing to not flinching the next time there's a big drop, or a big spike. If you DCA...
by TinkerPDX
Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?
Replies: 97
Views: 14925

Re: Anybody regretting holding on to your REITS?

BTW, why is it that those who argue for very high allocations of international stocks and bonds don't do the same with REITs, even though the US has a very small percentage of global real property and the global correlations in real estate are probably less than in other assets? Some of us do. I ho...
by TinkerPDX
Sat Nov 12, 2016 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to replicate a 3 fund-esque portfolio with Fidelity
Replies: 8
Views: 1273

Re: Looking to replicate a 3 fund-esque portfolio with Fidelity

I'd use those listed finds (minus the gov bond) to achieve an appropriate AA. Well worth it to have 1/8th the total ER of the target date fund, especially if you can set your allocations to automatically go into each fund in proportion to your AA.
by TinkerPDX
Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6683
Views: 1449860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

SpartanBull wrote:I'm staying the course as well. That being said, how bad is this going to be for stocks? I cant see them pulling back any less than 10% (although that advice is worth what you paid for it).
Far enough to hit some rebalancing bands, I expect. Exciting!
by TinkerPDX
Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help. Drowning in debt and worried about the future and retirement
Replies: 243
Views: 29187

Re: Need help. Drowning in debt and worried about the future and retirement

If you do nothing else, get rid of that car and the 13% loan!
by TinkerPDX
Sun Oct 16, 2016 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Tolerance: Dealing With It
Replies: 46
Views: 4424

Re: Risk Tolerance: Dealing With It

Your likelihood to fulfill your investment goals is directly tied to having the proper AA for your natural risk tolerance. With the wrong AA, we see investors suddenly shift to fixed income AFTER a deep market decline. They never catch up from a move like that. Those people are LESS likely to reach...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why aren't international stocks cheaper?
Replies: 29
Views: 3618

Re: Why aren't international stocks cheaper?

Past returns have little if anything to do with current prices, which are based (at least in large part) on expected future earnings.
by TinkerPDX
Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got myself into some trouble.. [Use emergency fund for credit card debt?]
Replies: 48
Views: 7619

Re: Got myself into some trouble.. [Use emergency fund for credit card debt?]

I know there are variables that play into this such as monthly expenses but in a general census, is it ever "OK" in a Bogleheads philosophy to use your EF to pay off CC debt? (I recognize this was late, but...) YES! Pay the credit card debt down immediately. High-interest debt is enemy #1. Right no...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's going on with REITS this week?
Replies: 26
Views: 4810

Re: What's going on with REITS this week?

And that's a typo - 0.12% and 0.18% ERs :-)
by TinkerPDX
Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's going on with REITS this week?
Replies: 26
Views: 4810

Re: What's going on with REITS this week?

We have been REIT investors for many years and wills tay the course. Many years ago we added the Vanguard International REIT fund and this has been performing well and helping to offset the U.S. REIT fund. Tune out the noise! Not to hijack the thread, but are you talking about Vanguard Global ex-U....
by TinkerPDX
Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: when to stop contributing to 529
Replies: 34
Views: 4683

Re: when to stop contributing to 529

You can rebalance whenever you want. Don't let the tax tail wag the dog. Referring to the inability to rebalance between the accounts. Having them lopsided with one heavier and one lighter on equities than the overall allocation may mean that things get so far from target that you can't sell enough...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does it matter what type of college one goes to?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Re: Does it matter what type of college one goes to?

Five wrote:There are those who feel that a top notch college can help get their child (better springboard) into a top company, med school, law school...
Not for law school. Good GPA and LSAT are 100%...the rest is only relevant as tie breakers.
by TinkerPDX
Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: when to stop contributing to 529
Replies: 34
Views: 4683

Re: when to stop contributing to 529

One thing to do is have multiple 529s . For example 529 A: contributions 0-12 529 b: contributions from 12-18 In b you tilt towards low return investments and A tilts towards the high ones you want and when it comes time to pay for college you take the money out of A first (selling stocks low is fi...
by TinkerPDX
Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: when to stop contributing to 529
Replies: 34
Views: 4683

Re: when to stop contributing to 529

I figure that the worst case scenario of over-contributing to the 529 (assuming retirement is fully funded) is that there's left over money in it--and that leftover money can be used for the kids' kids, or all sorts of other family members. (At least under my state's rules.) One way to think about i...
by TinkerPDX
Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?
Replies: 58
Views: 4495

Re: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?

Commodities, including gold, are 0-sum. Not productive. Unless you actually have a future need for some commodity, why invest in futures? As for gold specifically, it seems the deep appeal is for when things really hit the fan. If and when that does happen, no one is going to trade cash for your sha...
by TinkerPDX
Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor choices [did my advisor invest wisely for me?]
Replies: 48
Views: 3948

Re: Advisor choices [did my advisor invest wisely for me?]

As BL suggested, the transaction may also constitute "elder financial abuse" or whatever your state's version of that claim is, if you're over 65. Definitely talk to a lawyer if they put up any resistance when you say you want out.
by TinkerPDX
Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor choices [did my advisor invest wisely for me?]
Replies: 48
Views: 3948

Re: Advisor choices [did my advisor invest wisely for me?]

If it comes down to the advisor refusing to let you out without unreasonable fees, you may want to consult an attorney. It may give rise to an "unsuitability" claim - i.e. Advisor put you into unsuitable investments - which can be resolved through FINRA arbitration.
by TinkerPDX
Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When (or whether) to have a second child
Replies: 37
Views: 4884

Re: When (or whether) to have a second child

Money and eventual financial independence are means to ends, not ends in and of themselves. Among those ends is happiness. (Provided of course, that money enough to provide for basic physical needs is pretty much a precondition for happiness - but it sounds like you're way past that.) I understand t...
by TinkerPDX
Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Last minute Portland trip, need help
Replies: 23
Views: 2454

Re: Last minute Portland trip, need help

Skamania Lodge Timberline Lodge Hood River Hotel +1 If you want the opposite of Texas, the coast is the best option - it'll be cool and humid. But you're on vacation, so go somewhere fancier than Tillamook or Rockaway - there are some lovely places in Manzanita. Also pretty short drive from Portlan...
by TinkerPDX
Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends as proxy for value
Replies: 4
Views: 762

Dividends as proxy for value

Is dividend yield a proxy for value? I tilt to small and value in both my US and international equity allocation. There is no true international value index offering at VG where my RIRA is. There is VTRIX, which is basically large value-tilted ex-US, and that's what I currently use, but the 0.46% ER...
by TinkerPDX
Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 year old new dividend portfolio
Replies: 151
Views: 11391

Re: 24 year old new dividend portfolio

By all means, I certainly hope that you do know something that the markets and all of the professional analysts don't know, in which case you may well beat the market with your picks. I'll stick to my tilted suite of indexes.

Good luck!
by TinkerPDX
Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Presidential Election Insurance, Use T-Bills?
Replies: 65
Views: 6039

Re: Presidential Election Insurance, Use T-Bills?

What is your hypothesis on the causal link between disapproval of the president and bad market performance? From the Time article linked above: "A separate analysis by Oppenheimer Funds found that when the Commander-in-Chief suffers a negative approval rating—from just 35% to 50%—the Dow Jones indus...
by TinkerPDX
Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 7862

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

The way I see it, when it comes to investing there is the big stuff: 1) Save early and often 2) Keep costs low (including taxes) 3) Be broadly diversified 4) Stay the course and there is the little stuff: 1) Tilting 2) Target Retirement vs. roll your own 3) Lump sum vs. (reasonably short) DCA 4) et...
by TinkerPDX
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 3049

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?

Isn't this just a function of the fact that the whole reason we like value is that it will someday be worth more, and at that point, it's no longer "value"? I assume "value" index funds do sell companies that hit a high enough P/E ratio eventually, thus accomplishing the turnover needed in a discipl...
by TinkerPDX
Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a Prisoners' Rights Non-Profit?
Replies: 16
Views: 1460

Re: Recommend a Prisoners' Rights Non-Profit?

Prison Legal News: https://www.prisonlegalnews.org /, which is associated with Human Rights Defense Center: https://www.humanrightsdefensecenter.org /, and of course ACLU. I took a pro bono First Amendment case for an inmate a while back. PLN/HRDC helped us out with some support in the litigation. T...
by TinkerPDX
Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are these fees / returns reasonable
Replies: 38
Views: 3752

Re: Are these fees / returns reasonable

Keep in mind that you're probably also paying management fees in all of those mutual funds your advisor has you in, so the 0.85% may just be the tip of the iceberg - there's probably another 1-2% on top of that, effectively. And a significant portion of those fees are 12b-1 fees -- which is a portio...
by TinkerPDX
Mon Aug 08, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Think Oregon 529 is *clearly* better than Roth - what am I missing?
Replies: 13
Views: 1703

Think Oregon 529 is *clearly* better than Roth - what am I missing?

I think I understand the basics of the arguments pertaining to RIRA vs. 529 plans to fund college expenses. Setting aside the questions of flexibility, paying yourself/funding retirement first, etc., I think that in Oregon, the 529 plan is clearly the best option. Afraid I might be missing something...
by TinkerPDX
Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds - Update
Replies: 58
Views: 7249

Re: International Bonds - Update

Our IPS calls for 50% US / 35% international / 15% US TIPS within our bond allocation. I think the diversification is worth it and the costs are low enough (via BNDX). To the extent there are persuasive arguments against holding international bonds, I find the value to staying the course with my IPS...
by TinkerPDX
Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"
Replies: 101
Views: 7597

Re: Another argument against "price drop means stocks are on sale"

Convince me otherwise. I agree with you, but the thing that makes it hard for me is the old "stocks take the stairs up, but the elevator down" quip. Sure, days are generally about even +/-, but a 7% drop in one day, or wherever you'd set your "RBD" threshold, isn't just any old plus/minus day. That...
by TinkerPDX
Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?
Replies: 145
Views: 15154

Re: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?

All in all, it strengthened my commitment to my IPS, and confirmed that I have the right AA for my risk tolerance. I went into the office Friday just thrilled at the prospect that a 7% drop in ex-us would surely, finally trigger my rebalancing band, and I'd get to sell some bonds to buy cheap equiti...
by TinkerPDX
Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When was the most stressful financial time in your life?
Replies: 94
Views: 14009

Re: When was the most stressful financial time in your life?

Probably now, and that's in spite of having the highest NW and highest-paying job I've ever had, and solid short-term and pretty good mid/long-term job security. We are now a single-income family, and I have a spouse and kid (maybe another some day soon) who depend on me. So while assets/income are ...
by TinkerPDX
Thu Mar 17, 2016 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help! Oregon vs Nevada 529??
Replies: 8
Views: 1136

Re: help! Oregon vs Nevada 529??

Wow - I hadn't even realized until coming to this post and planning to sing its praises that Oregon's 529 charges a 0.17% plan manager fee on top of the underlying fund fees. :oops: Even so, if you're in Oregon, it seems like the best option since it's deductible from Oregon income tax. That's effec...
by TinkerPDX
Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??
Replies: 79
Views: 13465

Re: Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??

If you know when the bottom is, then you should definitely wait until then. Though if you actually know where the market is going, you should own the whole world pretty soon... Good luck with that! :sharebeer
by TinkerPDX
Wed Jan 20, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What was your % pay raise?
Replies: 179
Views: 19835

Re: What was your % pay raise?

4.5%, on course with our lock-step system for associates, a pretty standard law firm practice.